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Monday, September 17, 2012

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As several posters here are aware, I have a distant personal connection to Terry Collins (via my g/f and her family). One thing I know for certain is that the Mets sure as hell have no plans to let up for the Phils. They think that they have something to prove to their own Front Office and fan base.

And it sucks that we face Dickey right off the bat.

Things to watch for rest of year:

Dom Brown - Can he hit for some power? He's shown a good eye/ability work counts & walks but has struggled to hit fastballs especially on the inner part of the plate.

Needs to show some power because a .250/.335/.390 line who plays below average defense and isn't an asset on the basepaths isn't going to cut it next year as a full-time starter in a corner OF position.

De Fratus/Aumont/Lindlbom - Obvious given the Phils' bullpen struggles. All 3 have had real issues with command this year.

KK - Strong close? Was his most recent start in Houston where he really struggled going to be more typical of his late few starts.

Cloyd - Been mediocre so far. He has another 3 starts to make leave a better impression on the Phils' FO.

Beyond that there is really isn't much to watch from a player development standpoint. I would mention Ruf but he simply isn't going to play until the Phils are mathematically eliminated.

Jim Salisbury had a great point tonight on DSL:

'You don't move a HOF-caliber player (Utley) to open up a full-time spot for Galvis'

100% agreed.

Lest we forget, trying out 3rd base is entirely my idea.

Barring bringing in a major upgrade from outside the organization, the only reason Utley moves is because 3B really means less wear and tear on his body than 2B. Otherwise, there is no reason to make the move.

Nothing cures the weekend woes against the Astros like R.A. Dickey. Need to make a quick liquor store run.

I told Cholly and Rube I liked 3rd Bass and they thought I meant 3rd base. Oops.

MG: Brown has slugged better the second half of this call up than the first half.

Bullpen auditions will continue through the year and into spring training. I bet all three you mentioned are in the bullpen in 2013.

Cloyd goes back to AAA and is an emergency starter in 2013 at best.

The Mets don't intend to let up on the Phils, but they've let up on nearly everyone else since early July....Have gone 21-42 since the series the Phils played in NY around the 4th of July.

"@HighCheese: R. Amaro Jr. was bearish on both the 2B and 3B markets. Said if Utley plays third, "I'd assume that Freddy (Galvis) will be our 2ndBaseman."

Someone get me a barf bag.

We will be glad to take Mr Martinez off your hands in exchange for John Lackey (each team assumes the respective salaries, of course!) RooB, this offer is on the table for 72 more hours, at which point "the pictures" will be sent to the Enquirer. Your move.

I've had tonight penciled in as a loss since noting we'd face Dickey - and that was at the beginning of the HOU series, before I knew we'd drop 3 of 4 to them.

Would love the Phils to stick it to the Mets and everyone else who's left. Not because I think they'll steal the WC but just because.

Let's hope he's bluffing, Ice. Or intends to stock the OF with legitimate hitters/power threats-- proven & fairly consistent hitters, preferably RH.

"...against Cy Young hopeful R.A. Dickey (18-5, 2.68 ERA) and the New York Mets."

It goes without saying, but this game feels like a loss.

'You don't move a HOF-caliber player (Utley) to open up a full-time spot for Galvis'

Well ... yeah!

Countdown to BL grammar lesson on Enquirer vs. Inquirer...

"I've had tonight penciled in as a loss since noting we'd face Dickey."

You are far more optimistic than I. I already wrote in the loss in pen.

Two words...Wally Ritchie...

If the Red Sox ate almost all of Lackey's deal over the next 2 years (which apparently they have been willing to do), the Phils should take a look at him.

Gives them a cost-controlled veteran starter at peanuts potentially (say the Sox eat $12M/yr next 2 years on him) and more importantly it gives the Phils a little more flexibility in their rotation.

Yeah, yeah I know a starter has more worth than a reliever but one potential solution for the RHP setup reliever the Phils desperately need is moving Worley back there next year.

Getting Lackey as a #4/#5 starter makes that a possibility. Amaro will have the money to sign a veteran FA to start in CF but he is going to have to get creative to round out the rest of the roster likely due to payroll limitations & sparse options available via FA.

Okay I'm at Citi (section 420). Will the real Cliff Lee please stand up.

Where's the beef? (Dom Brown)

Last year - .391 SLG, .147 ISO, HR ever 61.3 ABs, XBH ever 11.5 ABS, 9.4% HR/FB, 11.3% IFFB,

This year - .370 SLG, .130 ISO, HR ever 46.0 ABs, XBH every 11.5 ABS, 8.8% HR/FB, 2.9% IFFB

***"@HighCheese: R. Amaro Jr. was bearish on both the 2B and 3B markets. Said if Utley plays third, "I'd assume that Freddy (Galvis) will be our 2ndBaseman."***

Please fire him.

MG: Are you saying the Red Sox eat 12 million on each of the next two years or 12 million overall?

Because if it is the latter I don't think spending 18 million over 2 years for a guy with a 83 ERA+ over the last two seasons is a sound use of money.


Galvis at second or third isn't bad in an of itself. However, it would mean that Amaro needs to have two power bats added into that outfield to cover for Galvis soft bat. That gets pricey though.

NEPP - I have to admit I have little faith in Amaro being creative and making enough of the right moves to successfully round out the rest of the roster to take the NL East next year.

"If the Red Sox ate almost all of Lackey's deal over the next 2 years (which apparently they have been willing to do), the Phils should take a look at him"

I hope you have a BIG budget for fried chicken and bud lights.

TTI - I mean $12M each year. The Red Sox really need starters but they really had soured on Lackey last year.

Galvis as a full-time starter would be brutal especially if you assume some of his surprising power was due to substance performance.

This isn't the '07-'09 Phils' infield where they have above average/well above average offense at a bunch of infield offensive positions.

I would put the chances of the Red Sox eating that much at about .05 %

Phils ISO this year:

Player A: .130
Player B: .137

TTI - It is probably better than that but your right. Just throwing it out there.

One guy I am interested as a possible converted reliever is DiceK. Just don't know if his stuff plays as well as a Contreras did out of the pen.

Here is why the Galvis thing doesn't bother me near as much as it does others. The market is incredibly crappy for both second and third. Amaro isn't lying about that. The market for outfielders is much better.

So again- there is a better chance of bringing in one or two good bats with some power to play in the outfield. If you do that you can deal with a light hitting infielder like Galvis.

Rollins has good pop for his position, Utley probably still does even though I am cautiously waiting to see him in a healthy season (or a relatively healthy one). Howard still has power and next year should rebound nicely. Ruiz has progressed at the catcher spot. So you can afford a soft bat at third or second. If you add a bat like BJ Upton and maybe Cody Ross in the off-season you are adding pop to the lineup.

All moves are dominoes and the trick is for Amaro to do enough to cover a soft bat in his lineup. If he can't do that it doesn't matter who is there.

now if Youk becomes available- obviously you try to get him.

Yes! Phils won't be shut out!

One run per inning should be enough for Lee.

TTI- BAP thinks you're a fool for wanting Youk. All he can do is draw walks. We'd be better off with Utley/Frandsen or one of the other garbage options on the FA market.

Iceman: Did he say that? His brain must be broken.


I will say this though- if you think you can get better options by adding to the outfield than I have no problem with using Frandsen/Galvis as a platoon type thing there.

I hope I'm wrong but I have no faith in Galvis succeeding as starter in the bigs. He fails both the numbers test and the eye test. That is not an encouraging combination mix in the PED suspension and a massive back injury and he's got 4 strikes against him.

Iceman - He didn't say that. He just was concerned that the Phils would be signing a guy who was a real injury risk, isn't going to come cheap, and is at an age where performance can fall off quickly. Plus he mentioned that several teams are likely going to be competing for him given the dearth of options at 3rd via FA.

"I would put the chances of the Red Sox eating that much at about .05 %"

Well, hey, I palmed as much high-priced crap off on Magic Johnson as I could - I was hoping RooB would be *almost* as stupid. Can't blame a guy for trying :)

Yes... nice job, Lee!

Schierholtz has been utterly awful as a Phillie.

Maybe it was the injury.

Still love watching knuckleballers. Basically a dread breed though.

Cyclic: He's just not very good, period.

Balkin Bob with another mysterious balk call.

If Galvis is a starter next year, he better sign Hamilton and Upton.

I wasn't expecting a lot, but

.213/.269/.319/.588

vs. a career of

.268/.317/.407/.724

is pretty horrible.

MG- he said all he can do is drawn walks and only hit for 'a little bit of power' (.240/.361/.472/.833 with a 121 OPS+ for Chicago). Basically doesn't think he's a useful enough player to justify upgrading from the dreck we have now.

No need to white knight for him. He knows what he said.

Galvis is still 22. He was slated for a full season in AAA this year except for Utley's injury, right? No matter what happens with the IF, I'm not sure it's wise to have him start the year with the Phils. He's young, still hasn't learned to hit, and has all of 33 games at AAA.

I'd almost rather see the Phils sign someone to a minor league contract to play IF, let Galvis get some time in AAA, and go from there to start the year. Ideally he would have had no MLB appearances this year until September anyway.

Sophist, Hello?

Hey, man!

If Galvis is a starter next year, he better sign Hamilton and Upton.

But, that will stifle Domonic Brown's development and everyone who reads the comments on BL knows that developing Domonic Brown should be this team's number one priority.

Minimart AA - age 27 - .253/.298/.393 - 387 PA
Galvis AA - age 21 - .273/.326/.400 - 464 PA

"But, that will stifle Domonic Brown's development"

No more than Werth's platoon stifled his development. Odd man out in my mind is Nix, but he's signed to a nothing contract and is great as a 4/5 OF or backup 1B role.

Really don't understand the point of having a conversation with Murphy for an entire half inning where they basically ignore the action on the field.

Not like that is a rare occurrence either.

MG, the best is when I have the radio overlay and visually I have to keep seeing Murphy's rambling pumpkin head with just a split second devoted to each pitch that Franzke and L.A. are actually, you know, talking about.

Whoever is in charge of the entire TV production needs to be fired and have their kids graduate with degrees in Finance, for good measure.

"I'd assume that Freddy (Galvis) will be our 2ndBaseman."

Is it just me or is the most puzzling part of RAJ's quote the first two words?

Isn't it his f8cking job to NOT assume this kind of stuff????

Lee at 'Full Tilt' so far. He's quietly had a very nice 2nd half.

This is like watching a mid-September game between a couple of disappointing teams.

Willard - That's, in part, why I think it's better to take his statements about these things at way less than face value. He doesn't always say these things in a spirit of candor. He has a lot of reasons to make different statements. He has fewer reasons to come out and tell the world what his plan is.

GTown, the greater metropolitan New York area, with disposable income to throw at ballgame tickets, would agree with you.

Gtown - A LI native, Mets-fan friend of mine told me this has been a "dream season" for the Mets.

Thought this would make you all chuckle:

John Gonzalez ‏@gonzoCSN
"Hey, you know what would be fun tonight? Let's go over to Citi Field and watch the Mets." --No one in New York.

Brown is coming along alright.

Thinking of Halladay on Sunday. As many things as have gone wrong or not broken the Phils' way, not having 'Doc be Doc' is probably No.1 on my list.

If Halladay had pitched like the '10-'11 version this year, I have no doubt that the Phils would be either ahead or tied with the Cards right now for the 2nd WC.

Sophist: I've found that when r00b speaks, he usually does so w/ candor. If he wishes to be vague, he'll not answer at all.

Sophist, I rarely take anything that comes out of Rube's mouth very seriously. However, he's never been one to intimate anything that made him look like he wasn't in complete control with a plan. That statement makes him look like an idiot for a number of reasons (not the least of which is that Galvis shouldn't be in anyone's consideration as a starting 2B).

Brown showing some pop the last week or so. For a guy who's been injured much of the year, maybe he just needed some time to get it back together?

Worst thing to happen to the Mets the past few years (even worse than the '07 collapse) was the Wilpons retaining controlling interest in the team.

They would inevitably would have been better off with them bought out & gone from the picture.

A LI native, Mets-fan friend of mine told me this has been a "dream season" for the Mets.

Good Lord, that's sad.

Is the Frandsen fantasy at an end?

"However, he's never been one to intimate anything that made him look like he wasn't in complete control with a plan."

Yes, but that doesn't mean what he intimates is actually the plan or what the Phils will do. From what you say, he may just be saying something to sound like he does have a plan. I think getting bent out of shape over what a GM says, as opposed to what a GM does, is just a waste of time.

Gtown - I'll admit I haven't studied all his statements that closely in order to have a response to that.

I'd rather see Frandsen at 3B & Utley at 2B than Utley at 3B & Galvis starting anywhere.

Best K/BB ratio in MLB. Congrats, Cliff Lee!

As LA quips "Surpasses Dallas Keuchel."

clout - we get to watch Frandsen's BAbip normalize from .375 to .280 if he's given enough AB.

Gtown - Yes, but remember they were 7 games over .500 in early July. They then proceeded to go 2-13.

"I'd rather see Frandsen at 3B & Utley at 2B"

I'm not sure Frandsen's OPS+ would exceed 80 if he's given more than 150 PA next year let alone a starting job.

Sophist: A couple of examples would be r00b's statements that he intended to go after a "veteran Closer" this past offseason, & his repeated insistence that the club felt they could & would re-sign Hamels. That both r00b & Charlie have not only spoken, but spoken so readily & positively, of Galvis lead me to believe Freddy has essentially already made the '13 starting lineup.

Young James with some pop of late.

Call that a homer!

Sophist: My personal opinion is that Frandsen makes a fine bench option. I'd only seriously argue that he should start over the Utley/Galvis option. Your eloquent explanation aside, I don't feel there is any FA market so weak as to justify that move.

Also, that's a HR.

Review it. That's JRoll's 21st HR

I think that's a HR. Speaking of Jimmy Rollins and HRs (and this has probably been discussed), Jimmy is part of the 20/30 club this year, his 4th time accomplishing that feat

Great player.

Good job, Jimmy! I must turn the game on. The radio is great but some things you want to see.

Sophist: Edit. It was TTI's 7.19PM post to which I was referring. My mistake.

Frickin' Rollins. Took him like three minutes to round the bases on that one.

Not a fan of expanding instant review further in baseball but using it for HRs is absolutely the right thing to do without impacting & slowing the game down too much.

Gtown - Fair points all around. I guess it's just a personal preference of mine not to get heated about something until it happens. But I would put the chances of Galvis getting a starting job next year, to start the year (injuries aside), at greater than 50%. Honestly, I'm sorta okay with that provided they go out and get 2 big bats (minimum). I also, like you, don't know how you'd justify that arrangement over keeping Galvis in AAA and bringing in a cheap option to play 2B or 3B.

Is he getting closer to a HOF resume? He's going to be one of the tougher calls. If he puts up this season 3 more times, I think he gets in.

Zero energy to this crowd in what should be an interesting game with 2 very good pitchers.

Why I liked the 2nd WC being added because I remember going to way too many Sept games at the Vet where you were lucky to have 6-7k actually show up.

Todd Zolecki tweets that Jimmy "has hit safely in 20 of 22 games this month."

Quietly, Jimmy Rollins has gotten back to his 2004-2006 days, offensively speaking.

wRC+:

2004: 107
2005: 103
2006: 108

2011: 106
2012: 104

Pretty impressive, and still the best signing of RAJ's tenure here to get Rollins to that contract.

I missed Lee's 1500th strikeout. Congrats, Clifton!

Rollins age 25-30: 102 OPS+, 19 HR, 41/11 2B/3B, 38/44 SB, 154 G (average)

Rollins 2012 (33): 97 OPS+, 20 HR, 33/5 2B/3B, 30/35 SB, 144 G

I simply cannot stand Murphy. It feels like the only time he does anything successfully is when he's facing the Phillies.

It's why I can never get too upset for Rollins for not hustling every so often. He's been such a valuable Phillies for 13 years now at the most important position on the diamond. Other than 2010, he's been a stellar shortstop, with good power, great baserunning and good/great defense. Can't ask for anything more.

I love when David Wright strikes out to end an inning.

Also crazy:

JMJ has gotten himself all the way back to a 98 wRC+. That's impressive, considering where he was earlier this season.

If Lee could get that 12-6 over consistently no one would ever get a hit.

Blew that 85 MPH heater right by me.

"TTI- BAP thinks you're a fool for wanting Youk."

I come back from the gym, halfway through the game, to see that Iceman is making stuff up about me.

I certainly never called anyone "a fool" for wanting Youk. I would merely disagree with that person. Since I wrote a long exposition on this subject at 6:31 p.m. EDT on Saturday night (the Narcoleptic Phillies thread), I would just direct TTI to that post in search of any statement where I called anyone a "fool" or said that moving Utley to 3rd, or sticking with Frandsen, would be better options. MG's characterization of my post is 100% accurate.

GBrettFan: But it's only 17 September ... 22 games?

Ha. Just saw the correction:

Zolecki: "Wow, my math is off. Rollins has hit safely in 14 of 16 games this month."

"It's why I can never get too upset for Rollins for not hustling every so often. He's been such a valuable Phillies for 13 years now at the most important position on the diamond."

He's going to end up being, with Ashburn, the next best Phillies position player ever.

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