Game chat: .500 just around the corner for Phillies

There's no room at the inn for newcomer Darin Ruf when the Phillies begin a three-game set with the disappointing Marlins. First pitch is 7:05.

The Phillies clog the outfield with Ty Wigginton in left, John Mayberry Jr. in center and Domonic Brown in right. In Charlie Manuel's defense, Mayberry is  the best option in center and Brown has to take the field as much as possible. Manuel must also reward veteran players like Wigginton, who homered in Game 2 of Sunday's doubleheader, with playing time; for Wigginton, he's looking to showcase his skills for a job next season. Meanwhile, Michael Martinez remains at third base and it's just so tragic the Phils can't feature something better at the hot corner. Like this billy goat eating his ribbon bow tie. [Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[RK]

One of the tricky things about baseball is numbers. So you can take all the numbers together or you can pick which players joined when and see if there is a correlation. Which numbers do you trust? When Utely and Howard returned they were still in a downward slide and in fact the Phils were sellers as a result. Why not look at when Kratz , Frandsen started to play the Phils have been playing .600 ball since then and when Brown and Mayberry became permanent fixtures the team started to play on .667 scale.

[bay_area_phan]

"Also, you specifically said that you dont care if DOM never gets a 409th PA, during a discussion on Ruf being promoted to the MLB."

Well, yeah, I said that I wouldn't count it as any great loss if he got no more PAs. And if we had 2 good right-handed outfielders plus Dom, I would be advocating a Dom-Ruf platoon, since Dom hasn't shown much aptitude for hitting LHP at the major league level. But since our 3rd RH outfielder is Ty Wigginton, we need not visit the issue of whether to give Ruf ABs at the expense of Dom. There is room for Dom to start every day, and Ruf to start at least against LHP.

[GBrettFan]

Clout - good points about KK.

I'm speculating that he needed not only to perfect his location, but to mature. His words reflect an increased self-confidence and comfort with who he is a a pitcher.

[Sil Campusano]

I'm not a huge stat guy, but I can tell you this: it has been quite nice lately to have a bullpen that doesn't blow leads in middle relief.

[lorecore]

only clout can enter an argument between two sides on beerleaguer, make a generic statement, and conclude that "beerleaguer" as a whole is wrong.

[Sophist]

RK - The problem is that correlation and causation aren't necessarily connected. Frandsen and his BAbip has been a great addition; as has Kratz but, again, he replaced an even better run producer (Ruiz has a 5.1 WAR to Kratz' 1.2). Overall the offense is way down, and those pitching numbers are out-of-this-world good.

I'd throw Frandsen and Mayberry's performance in with the pen (outside of Papelbon) as secondary reasons why they've played so well.

[Iceman]

RK is right on. When Frandsen, Mayberry and Kratz started playing everyday, it immediately made the pitchers start pitching better. You can discount that intangible.

[bay_area_phan]

clout once wrote that Shane Victorino didn't have the bat to be a starting major league outfielder. He fell strangely silent during these past 6 seasons -- pretending he never said a negative word about Vic.

[donc]

It's also nice to have guys come out of the bullpen with big arms and good stuff. I've always been envious of other teams that have a string of prospects that come up from the minors with electric stuff. Not all of them are good or even make it, but it's nice to have some higher ceiling types. I fell hard for Aumont at a Swine game last year and am really liking what he's doing so far. And DeFratus has some nice stuff too. If they can command what they have, they'll be extremely useful in the coming years. Also, enjoying Bastardo's recent resurgence. He's an often over-looked piece of the puzzle. His struggles had a terrible domino affect on the pen.

[Sophist]

Bastardo, Horst, Aumont, and Valdes have made the biggest contributions outside of Papelbon. De Fratus and Diekman have pitched well but in very limited appearances. Bastardo and Aumont have half as many innings as Papelbon, that's why I think -- in addition to that DH Sunday -- Papelbon's performance should be included with the SP.

[lorecore]

RK: The reason why team stats like Sophist posts are more important than the team's record since X and Y started playing can be summed up very quickly:

The Phillies are 11-1 in the last 12 games when Michael Martinez has played, during which he has amassed a .381 OPS

[RK]

Pitching has been good especially after the 6th inning and I ahve said so in earlier posts.

[lorecore]

And the one game the Phillies have lost during that stretch? They were winning 7-1 with Michael Martinez in the game, but when they took him out in the 7th inning, the Braves outscored the Phillies 7-0 the rest of the way to take the win.

[bay_area_phan]

lore: Another one which was often cited last year: the Phillies were 27-8 in Brian Schneider's starts. This year, they're 10-16 in his starts.

[Sil Campusano]

The good thing about the Schneider stat is that the total number of starts by him is not likely to increase.

[Fatalotti]

philipper: Fatalotti and akmsith, after bashing him for 3 years, have been pretending they never said a negative word about Kendrick.

Posted by: clout | Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM

I'll never pretend that I didn't bash KK. I did. Relentlessly. And I don't trust him for a second to continue at this current pace. But I always said that if he could get a feel for his changeup, and not pitch batting practice against lefties, he could become a nice addition to any rotation.

Seems I was kind of on the money. Sorry clout, if that doesn't fit with your narrative.

[bay_area_phan]

Fatalotti: From now until the end of Kyle Kendrick's major league career, you must sign off every post by saying, "I aknowledge that I bashed KK in the past." Anything short of that, and you are just pretending that it never happened.

[Fatalotti]

BAP, not only will I say that, but I will affirm my right to bash him in the future.

Also, of particular interest is the fact that KK, in the year that he's had the most dominating stretches of his career, would you look at that? Highest strikeout rate of his career, by far. And all with a pretty normalized BAbip by KK's career standards.

Probably a coincidence, since strikeouts don't matter.

[donc]

I have been a serial KK basher. The only times I've ever given him any credit, he heads right back into the toilet. They guy freaking SUCKS!

[bay_area_phan]

My name is bay_area_phan, and I am a KK basher . . .

[Fatalotti]

Hi bay_area_phan!!

[Lake Fred]

BAP & Fat, I too have never had much faith in KK. Despite his recent success, I do not expect a win when he starts. It's more like a roll of the dice to me. His 9-10 W-L record shows that he is a coin flip for every game he is slotted to start.

[fumphis]

It really is a beautiful game that Beerleaguer posters play. To a man, when their pet player goes on a hot streak, they trumpet their righteousness over that player's detractors, while discounting their dispreferred players' hot streaks as flukes. Such is the nature of human thought, I guess.

[Chuck A.]

Look, we've ALL bashed KK at some point. It's just the way it is...part of being a Phillies' fan.

[donc]

He's also spent large portions of his career being extremely bashable. Every time i watch KK he befouls his trousers. That's why I knew he would implode last night. I had the whole night free to watch the game and lo and behold. Some weird juju that.

[Little Ollie]

Actually, KK's great run won't last. And Phils have 2.7 percent of making the post-season. But it won't happen. It says so here:

http://mlb.si.com/2012/09/11/phillies-wild-card-races-halladay-utley-howard/?sct=hp_t11_a2&eref=sihp

[Fatalotti]

Bashing KK is like getting mad at a player who strikes out with the bases loaded or wanting to punch Jose Reyes in the face multiple times; every fan does it.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Pretty interesting looking at Kendrick's rookie season vs. this season.

2007 as a starter:
20 starts, 121 IP, 129 H, 25 BB, 52 ER, 16 HR, .284 BABIP, 49 K

2012 as a starter:
21 starts, 125 IP, 121 H, 35 BB, 53 ER, 16 HR, .286 BABIP, 91 K

The numbers are almost identical except for the strike out numbers.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

I have never bashed Kyle Kendrick. Just want to make that clear.

[Joe D]

I've bashed everyone on this team at one point or another. If you play on a Philadelphia team I've ripped you at some point.

[bay_area_phan]

I count 5 Beerleaguer posters who have never bashed KK:

clout
Kendrick Appreciation Society
cut_fastball
dennyb
awh

I assume they're all related to KK by either marriage or consanguinity.

[Poor Whipped Jerked Around Mule]

Pile it on. I'll carry my share of the load up this mountain.

[Cyclic]

These threads used to be so empty.

[Willard Preacher]

Fatalotti, that might be some breaking news you just uncovered there!!!! I don't see Jose Reyes' face on the "MLB Most Punchable" list...

[Willard Preacher]

For the record, as compiled by Beerleaguer, the Official MLB Most Punchable Face list (in no particular order):

- Cody Ross
- Russell Martin
- Nick Swisher
- Mark Teixera
- Dan Uggla
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Buster Posey
- Brian Wilson
- Yadier Molina
- Nyjer Morgan

[Fatalotti]

Fatalotti, that might be some breaking news you just uncovered there!!!! I don't see Jose Reyes' face on the "MLB Most Punchable" list...

Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 12:51 PM

That's a gross oversight, and needs to be rectified post haste!!

[Willard Preacher]

Consider him added, unless anyone has any objections.

[donc]

Larry Wayne?

[GBrettFan]

The last sentence of that article linked by Little Ollie:

"It’s not breaking news that the Phillies won’t make the playoffs, but it’s worth noting that, in a season that seemed lost and saw them become sellers at the trading deadline, they’ve still managed to become contenders in September."

It would be amazingly thrilling to beat the odds. I'd love to tell the author that he's wrong to count us out. But I think the important thing is the last part, which really hit me. We turned around a miserable season that saw us at 14 games under .500 mid-summer, enough to have a sliver of hope in September. That's pretty amazing in and of itself.

[Fatalotti]

If the Phillies finish over .500 this year (which looks like a good possibility, especially if they make the playoffs), it'll be 10 straight seasons of winning baseball, and 11 of the last 12.

That's celebratory in its own right.

[Fatalotti]

I personally don't want to punch Chipper. I mean, other than claiming that CBP is a bandbox once in a while, he's never really done anything that made me personally dislike him. And when I was down in ATL, you could tell he was a legitimate folk hero down there, plus he does a LOT in the Atlanta community.

Also, he's a frigging baseball legend. That nullifies him from my personal Face-Punching-List.

[cut_fastball]

I always admired KK -- He pitched on sheer guts in '08; his command was crummy, and he did not have a cutter, let alone a change up he could go to. After he got sent down, he started tagging along with Doc; early AM, whatever. I wish I had KK's opportunities. Props to KK for not squandering them.

[Sil Campusano]

For me, Reyes is Numero Uno on the Punchable Faces list. Those years with the Mutts; all those stupid, inane, immature, and overwrought celebrations after every possible accomplishment (which still continue to this day).

Brian Wilson is up there, too. I think the Punchable Faces thing is exacerbated with me on unnecessary, rehearsed celebrations. I'm not big on the Ryan Braun "ultra-low five" thing either.

[Sophist]

I thought the whole debate on Kendrick wasn't whether or not he was capable of a good stretch of baseball. The debate was whether he had the pitches/stuff to stick around passed his little dream 2007 season. Some posters looked at his peripherals and found it unlikely. Others disagreed.

He's now made 119 starts, and has managed a 93 ERA+ in that time. He's still young and has managed a 111 ERA+ over the past 2 years in over 250 IP. I'd say he's gone a long way in proving doubters -- people who thought he had no place in any rotation -- wrong.

[Little Ollie]

Reyes had a stupid grin on his face while he was making outs for his team last night. Not exactly an example of appearing to be giving it his all.

[Cyclic]

I'd appreciate a comfortable win that isn't ever in doubt tonight.

I feel like the last few have been nailbiters or comebacks.

[RK]

OK easy to make fun with silly data about MM. I buy into Sophist's data from before:
Pre ASB
RS: 368 (4.23/g), .262/.316/.403
RA: 396 (4.55/g)

post ASB: 33-21

RS: 219 (4.05/g), .244/.313/.390
RA: 201 (3.72/g)
It does indicate pitching as the edge. But I already pointed that out earlier. But there is no denying the fact that the new players (call tehm AAAA) have made a big difference.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

And, frankly, at the $4.5M he'll make next season, there is NO reason to keep him out of the rotation in 2013.

If the Phils aren't sure about Worley, maybe you look outside for a free agent, but Kendrick has more than proven himself capable. With three aces in the rotation, KK is as good or better than most back-end starters.

[Buy sell]

WP- Reyes is on the most pullable pirate beard list

[John Lannan]

What about me?

[Buy sell]

Wigglington has a punch able face, doesn't he?

[donc]

Fats: I have major respect for Larry. But his face is incredibly punchable. I guess I take the list too literally. I don't like his smug mug. The guy himself doesn't iritate me that much. I could live without the 48 or whatever homeruns that he's hit against us though. For me the #1 most punchable face has to belong to Dan Uggla. And I can't stand anything else about him either.

[John Lannan]

Yo new thread.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Oooh... new thread about the Phils most lovable player, Kyle Kendrick!

[aksmith]

It appears that KK has developed a repertoire that makes him a successful major league starting pitcher.

I notice that another poster already mentioned Clout's swing and miss on Victorino. And that illustrates what goes on with BL.

There is one crowd that thinks every prospect is a future star. There is another crowd, led by the Cloutians, that believes no prospect is going to be a more than adequate player.

But the truth is that some prospects turn into stars and some fade into nothingness and nobody knows which is which all the time. Latching onto Kendrick was no more than wishful thinking. He didn't have a cutter. He didn't have a changeup. He had a passable sinker that he tended to get up in the zone more than he should have and a good demeanor on the mound most of the time. Then he lost confidence and looked like a AAAA player at best.

Now, he has a much better repertoire and he has turned into a very different player than when he first came to the majors. Good for him. And good for the Phillies.

But to make believe anyone knew he would be this successful for two seasons in a row at the major league level is hogwash. Clout doesn't usually get specific looking forward. But I seem to recall him saying that Kendrick should be a 4.5 ERA pitcher going forward and that's fine for a fifth starter. Well, it might be. But Kendrick has now far surpassed that as a starter two years in a row.

Oh, and Shane Victorino actually hit very well for the last five or six years. And it seems he brought back a pretty good pitcher, not named Lindblom, in trade.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread

[The Truth Injection]

I've never bashed Kendrick either. I'm not related to him. I just don't allow myself to have wild mood swings like many people on here and always saw him as a back end of the rotation guy which he is perfect for.