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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Comments

TOO SOON TOO SOON

I think we have to see them get to the Braves series to really start feeling like its ACTUALLY going to happen, if they are within 3 by then, then its up to the baseball Gods

(worth reposting the link)

Sophist: thanks for that phuture phillies link with the .gif of Aumont's split change: http://phuturephillies.com/2012/02/10/my-top-30-prospects-for-2012/

I miss phuturephillies a lot, that type of write up has been absent ever since the one guy left. I still like the site and all, but that write up he did is just ridiculously insightful. I remember when he made those huge excel sheets trying to create brand new stats/projection system, it was a mile over my head, but still appreciated.

I think the biggest change I've seen is that this team is playing the game smart. You had Pierre stealing 3rd (no clue why it didn't hold up) while the Marlins were sleeping. You had Chase tagging up from 1st on that ball to center. Mayberry taking 2nd on the Stanton misplay. These are the little things that need to be done to pull off the impossible. I am also of the belief that the collective IQ of the team tripled when they cut bait with Victorino and Pence. They are incredibly easier to watch and the quality of at bat from 1-8 has gone up as well.

Aumonth is #8 on his prospect list, so you have to scroll down to him to find it.

YES WE CAN!
TEAM TO BEAT!
WHY CAN'T US?!
WE OWE YOU ONE!
BRING IT HOME FOR JEROME!

Thanks for the gif post Sophist. That split is so disgusting.

Great time to be a Phillies fan. It's like 2007 all over again in many ways.

Key for me going forward is the continued success of Kendrick and being able to pull a few wins out of Cloyd. In 20 games you are going to get 12 starts from the Big 3 and they are going to need to go 10-2 or 11-1 in those. In the remaining 8 you then need to go 5-3 or 4-4 which might be tough depending on how the matchups go. That would still only get them to 86 wins, but would definitely keep it close as I don't think we will see much better than .500 from the remaining teams in the hunt.

I just heard that the Phillies will play the Royals in the 2013 home opener. Fvck that noise. I'm not a fan of inter-league at all. Awful.

Wait interleague in April now?

With the Astros jumping to the AL, there will be an odd number of teams in each league and inter-league will occur daily. It's a thoroughly disheartening development.

I agree completely w/ gobaystars! RE: both the current Postseason format, & interleague play. Clearly, the Apocalypse is upon us.

Great comparison, JW "Objects in rear-view are closer than they appear."


We were 14 games under .500 on July 13. I do have a friend who reminds me every time I see her that she never stopped believing, but come on - It was hardly realistic to expect the team to make the playoffs.

Furthermore, one of the huge stumbling blocks was the BP. I thought it was reasonable to expect get better SP in the 2nd half and to expect the offense to hold its own, but our BP was so bad I didn't see how we could overcome it. Turns out, we got new guys in the mix there and they've begun to find their way to saving some games.

I didn't expect KK to be this good, either.

And as we all know, we would be out of contention any other year to this point, without the 2nd WC.


Reposting because the earlier discussion was along these lines, and it's a good piece:

Just saw this by Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley on optimism v. pessimism in the fan.

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/09/11/on-optimism-and-pessimism/

Interleague all year long now

We should think of the 2nd WC as MLB making restitution to the Phillies for creating a playoff format that screwed them out of a World Series appearance in 2010 and 2011, even though they had the best record in baseball both years.

And we should think of the Cardinals' recent losing ways as restitution to the Phillies for beating up on the Braves during the last weekend of the 2011 regular season, thereby allowing the Cardinals to sneak into the playoffs.

I forgot about that with the Astros and interleague play. I'm not a fan either.

Good call bap. If anything St. Louis does owe the Phillies a collapse.

Cant say anything more. These last 20 games are going to be fun! Go phils! A lot of us counted them out, but the thing that killed em early has done a 180. Bullpen and timely hitting.

Cut it to 2 GB in the next 10 days and then its on!

Anyone know the winning % post ASB under cholly? It's gotta be quite good.

To me, inter-league all year is a much bigger offense than expanding the playoffs to two WCs.

Slow the bandwagon down so I can jump back on!

"I always believed in this team!!!"

It will be incredible if they make it, if they win out they have a good chance.

I really respect this team for not giving up, and giving us meaningful September baseball when it looked for a couple months like that was never in a million years going to happen.

Still, they're in such a precarious position, and just a couple losses in a row would basically derail the whole thing... but hey, as long as they keep on winning, everything else will sort itself out!

I think interleague expands by about 5 games, too. It's been a while since I read about the home opener v. KC & how many IL games there will be - perhaps gobay knows?

Why can't us!!!

"...restitution to the Phillies..."

I'll call it restitution if and when they are safely in the playoffs. Until then, to me the restitution is - not sure of the right word - hypothetical, potential,...etc.

Anyway, glad to see a little less doom and gloom, not that is has not been warranted.

JW: You missed a golden opportunity to bring back this classic:

Although I'm still not buying that the Phillies recent rise in the standings is anything more than a pleasant, & quite probably fleeting, late-season surprise.

Phils get 21 IL Games next year. 1 series vs the entire AL Central, and then 2 series against their "IL Rival" which I think is Boston(or toronto?).

I thought they would scrap the IL Rival thing, but apparently not.

Mets-Yanks
Nats-Os
Marlins-Rays

at least make sense. Phils/Braves and Jays/Sox really don't match up with each other.

GBrettfan: "It was hardly realistic to expect the team to make the playoffs."

Exactly right. But not impossible. That's why those who ridiculed posters who refused to give up deserve a spanking now.

the 2012 schedule was officially released Sept 14, 2011 - so we should be close to getting all the details soon.

I will come to the forefront and take my medicine as I was one of the posters who laughed at those thinking this team still had a chance back in June and July. I didn't see it at all and couldn't believe someone would be crazy enough to think they weren't dead in the water. I'm not afraid to admit I was wrong. I'm glad I was. This is the beauty of being a pessimist...when things do turn around you enjoy it more because you never saw it coming.

***I miss phuturephillies a lot, that type of write up has been absent ever since the one guy left.***

The site has been a complete joke since James left. He was the site, he founded it, did all the research, did all the statistical work, etc etc. The guys running it now are just moderators, nothing more. The thread comments there are basically Philly.com level of insight at this point.

Too bad about phuturephillies.

I'm enjoying this run, but as Jack so faithfully reminded us all - with incredibly obtuse insight, I might add - there are still a lot of teams ahead of them and a LOT has to go right.

Still, it's great to be able to watch a team that's worth watching.

Good baseball, and no matter what happens in 2012, with some of the youngsters on the team starting to show that they may be able to stick at the MLB level, there's a pretty good indication that they could contend next season.

Didn't the 83 team do something like this?

Yes, they did in 1983. I think the Phillies will win the 2nd WC and will beat Atlanta in the one game series in Atlanta, stunning Larry Jones.

i have no idea how this person got this printout, or if its legit, but:

http://aeryssports.com/view-from-section-116/2012/08/26/in-order-to-help-you-plan-2013-heres-the-phillies-schedule/

Shows 20 IL games:

3 vs KCR
2 at CLE
2 vs CLE
2 vs BOS
2 at BOS
3 at MIN
3 vs CHW
3 at DET

I love those who rarely give opinions of their own, but only comment on the opinions of others. Now is their time in the sun, because while they never averred that the Phillies had a realistic shot to make the playoffs, they can now say that they never said the Phillies DIDN'T have a chance to make the playoffs.

Nice game to run. If second guessing were an art form, then this place would have a couple of Picasso's on its hands. But Picasso got a lot of tail for what he did. Again, this is just a guess, but I'm thinking the girls aren't flocking to anyone's mom's basement these days. You know who you are.

From last thread:

"I don't really understand what we're arguing about. Especially since this team is playing meaningful, exciting baseball in the middle of September."

Really, R Bill? Don't understand why we're arguing? This is Beerleaguer, sir, where a vituperative, bitter argument could erupt over whether the Phillies should wear green jerseys in ST on St. Paddy's day.

***2 at BOS***

Sweet...with the BoSox sucking, I might be able to get seats better than the RF Grandstand next year.

***the Phillies should wear green jerseys in ST on St. Paddy's day.***

But then what color do they wear on Columbus Day to celebrate the Italians?

There are some similarities to the 83 team.

The 83 team was still under .500 as late as July 26. The difference was, the rest of the Division stunk so they never fell more than 5.5 games out of 1st at any point in the season. They were neck and neck with the Pirates & Expos until about mid-September. Then they pulled away by winning 11 in a row and 14 of 15, before losing the meaningless season finale.

The next year, they dropped to .500, then remained terrible for the next decade.

I'm in total agreement with BAP. The Cardinals owe us for beating up on the Braves the last series of the season in 2011. We need the Phanatic to put the jinx on the Cardinals and hope it continues.

Somewhat surprised that the Brewers are hanging in there.

Thanks for the link, lorecore. As for opening the season at home with KC, I don't see the problem. IL play isn't expanding, it's just spread out throughout the year now. What difference does it make, regardless of how you feel about IL play, whether we play 20 IL games in a row in June or spread them over 7 series throughout the year?

I heard the official schedule for 2013 is being released by MLB at 1 today.

Watching clout get under the skin of 50% of posters because he tells them things they don't want to hear about themselves is one of the best parts of BL.

Very similar reaction when Rollins called some Phans what they are- frontrunners- and everyone lost their minds.

The 1983 Phillies were never more than 2.5 games back of the division lead (& often even less) from 1 July until they took over 1st place for good on 14 September. It's not really comparable.

Dave - I have a feeling they end a few games short too but then again I thought the same thing about the '07 season even after the sweep of the Mets in mid-August.

It has been fun though to make what would have been a meaningless 2-3 weeks of Sept baseball interesting.

Whether someone stopped “believing” in mid-summer isn’t the issue. There half-full /half-empty types everywhere. We all analyze the league differently.

And I don’t think it is emotion as much as passion we are discussing. The passion remained through the slump, whether a particular person was optimistic or pessimistic.

And the interpretations were fluid…Most of us felt optimistic or pessimistic depending on the day, the game, the at bat, the error, the injury, the lineup. Our “emotions” may have shifted from expecting the euphoria of a playoff series, to the simple pleasure of a cold beer and a good game, to the disappointment of a blown save. While we first hoped for a league championship in spring, we tempered those hopes along the way. But there were always different hopes—for a new bullpen guy to pitch well, for Cliff to get a win, for MiniMart to do anything, for Chase to feel better, etc. etc. etc.

But the passion? It never wavered. It is “for better or for worse” for most of us, because that is what we are about. And passion remained for the smaller things, not just for a playoff run. Even as we languished in the basement of the standings, there were great moments. There were also abysmal moments about which we complained, well, passionately.

I suspect that most of us who visited BL all summer long would call ourselves passionate. And I suspect we post here because most others in our lives don’t share our passion. It is great to logon and see that others have been watching games as intently and analyzing as obsessively.

In a way I find it funny to see the ranks of the fans multiply and to again hear baseball talk among the general public. Not that I would trade this playoff drive for anything, but in some very small way being part of a smaller, passionate group is satisfying as well. And some year, when the Phils are definitely out of the race, we’ll still be the ones at the ballpark, or in front of our televisions, in September. We’ll still be enjoying the game of baseball and being fans. Emotional? I don’t know. Passionate? For sure. And that has nothing to do with our prognosis for a playoff berth.

Yet, someone else may be a different kind of fan, and that is okay too. I like this.

But far be it for me to judge someone else’s fandom.

To that end, btw- I missed this because I was at the game- but BAP lamented not trusting 2012 Halladay with a 3-run lead last night. Fair enough, but then he said the Padres wouldn't come back from a two-run deficit on the Cardinals because of 2012 Adam Wainwright.

2012 Halladay: 100 ERA+
2012 Wainwright: 95 ERA+

"Watching clout get under the skin of 50% of posters because he tells them things they don't want to hear about themselves is one of the best parts of BL."

50%? Your number is as off as those Fangraphs playoff odds.

"Watching clout get under the skin of 50% of posters because he tells them things they don't want to hear about themselves is one of the best parts of BL."

The oft chance the King of bop will return and spam the game thread ranks like 100 spots better than that.

"The next year, they dropped to .500, then remained terrible for the next decade."

Actually, bap, with the exception of 1993, it was almost 2 decades.

Memories.....

Dave - I have a feeling they end a few games short too but then again I thought the same thing about the '07 season even after the sweep of the Mets in mid-August.

It has been fun though to make what would have been a meaningless 2-3 weeks of Sept baseball interesting.

Posted by: MG | Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 12:36 PM

I agree with this.

About the optimism/pessimism thing, I definitely fall on the optimist side of the spectrum, but I think this team still needs a lot to go right and is still a big long shot. They're more likely to finish 8-12 than they are to finish 16-4.

At any rate, September is exciting and that is a pleasant surprise.

ICE - in fairness, we watch Halladay in every start. And we know there is something wrong. Most of us only see Wainwright occasionally, so we sort of see the Wainwright of the past in our minds. Clearly, neither of them is very good this season. There is no reason to trust Doc with a three run lead, and there is no reason to trust Wainwright with a two run lead these days.

Question for teh board:

Did Zack Greinke's personality disorder (or whatever it is) hold the Brewers back by creating a problem in the clubhouse?

Slow down everyone. 8-2 over the last ten, preceeded by 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. That's 26-14 over the last 40. That averages out to 13-7 over 20 and, oh by the way....they have 20 left to play. Even if they went 16-4 (keeping to the 8-2 pace) it STILL might not be enough to overcome even a mediocre-playing Dodgers and/or Cardinals team(s).

I just don't see this happening. There's more than one team to chase, one also very hot team right there with us (although they don't have the pitching) and no head-to-head match-ups.

I'm into it and I'm hopeful but I'm not gonna get too excited just yet.

They're more likely to finish 8-12 than they are to finish 16-4.


Posted by: DH Phils


~~

Not sure about this.

Last night's actual exchange (as shown on the Beerleaguer transcript):

EFF (after the Padres fell behind 2-0): "Ya never now, Cards led 2-0 last night early and lost 11-3."

BAP: "Yeah, but they didn't have Wainwright on the mound."

Last night's exchange as seen through the eyes of EFF and Iceman:

EFF: "Ya never now, Cards led 2-0 last night early and lost 11-3."

BAP: "You're a blithering idiot. They have Adam Wainwright on the mound, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball. There is no way the Padres are coming back tonight."

Nice post, can of corn.

DH, I'm sure I read that there are more IL games next year. I'll go hunt for specifics.

Also, Iceman, I knew exactly what Adam Wainwright's numbers were at the time of my post. I looked them up before I posted and I saw that he had very strong 2nd half numbers. Considering that he was coming off TJ surgery, and was one of the best pitchers in baseball before that surgery, I tend to think that his 2nd half numbers are a better index of his present ability than his overall 2012 numbers. I wish I could say the same about Roy Halladay, whose 2nd half numbers are every bit as mediocre as his pre-injury numbers.

I'm all in.

Screw the odds, something just 'feels right'.

Pirates, Dodgers, and Cards are fading. Milwaukee isn't us.

The 2nd wild card is ours for the taking.

16-4 will likely not be good enough. They can lose two games and that's all for the rest of the season. This will have to be a historic run for the Phillies to get in. But at least it's a discussion that is more realistic than back when only Clout said we were going to make it.

He didn't? Someone get a feather to knock me down with.

I'll admit that I threw in the towel and was calling for getting rid of Wiggy and Pierre along with all the pieces who are already gone. But it was unrealistic to expect the Phillies bullpen to suddenly become a strength. Neither Aumont nor Diekman could find the strike zone with a map and a compass. And picking up Lindblom was hardly a stroke of genius. All the rest of the pitching talent that came back in trade was at least a year and more likely two or three years away from helping.

Anyone looking at the situation objectively had to assume this wasn't their year. Unless, you know, they, um, didn't give an opinion of their own.

GBrett: I think it's marginally more games. Most teams had 18 this year (many of the NL teams, including the Phils, had 15 because the 2 extra NL teams force one NL game while the rest of the slate is interleague - this year the result was an extra series with the Rockies). Next year there will be 20 IL games.

Here it is (from 8/24 Phillies Zone):

"The Phillies will play 21 interleague games in 2013. They played 15 in 2012 and went 5-10 in those games."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Phillies-will-open-2013-home-schedule-with-AL-team.html


Also, to confirm the earlier post by lorecore:

"The National League East will pair with the American League Central in 2013. In addition to Kansas City, the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians are scheduled to play in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are scheduled to make American League trips to Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit.

They will also play a four-game home-and-home series vs. the Boston Red Sox with each city hosting two games. Boston serves as the Phillies' "natural rival" in 2013.

The Phillies open and close the season in Atlanta. The full schedule is expected to be released sometime in September."

Just saw your reply, DH. I know, it's a few more games. But they expanded IL play by a few more games before. They're adding a few games one year, a few games another year, trying to sneak it in. Until there's 50% IL play. That's my conspiracy theory.

"Very similar reaction when Rollins called some Phans what they are- frontrunners- and everyone lost their minds."

It's the hyperbole of BL that keeps me coming back day after day.

great post can of corn.

Baseball is fun again.

aksmith: I bet 16-4 is good enough to at least force a tie for the WC. 16-4 is enough as long as St. Louis doesn't go 13-7, LA doesn't go 14-6, Pittsburgh doesn't go 15-6, and Milwaukee doesn't go 17-3. Any of those things could happen, but I don't think they're likely outcomes.

I think the hope this weekend is that the Dodgers take 3 of 4 or sweep the Cardinals. The Cardinals schedule is scary: 9 with the Cubs and Houston followed by 6 with the possibly already clinched Nationals and Reds.

I fully admit I've been in denial about Roy Halladay all year. We've reached the point where we can all agree that he isn't the same pitcher. The question is whether or not it's a one-year "everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong" sort of things, or if it's just who he is as a pitcher now.

I've seen him pitch a few times in person before so I tried to concentrate on what was so different last night. My diagnosis: he is not the same pitcher out of the stretch. Once a guy gets on base, he paces, looks labored, throws junk, doesn't trust his stuff. Now I don't know why he doesn't- maybe because he doesn't think it's as good anymore- but either way, he looked like old Roy as long as no one managed to get a hit. Once runners got on, it looked like it was about to get ugly fast.

The numbers this year agree with this:

Bases Empty: .239/.275/.354/.629, .279 BABIP
Runners on: .284/.327/.443/.770, .327 BABIP
RISP: .298/.323/.474/.797, .348 BAPIP

Significant differences, especially with BABIP (he's getting hit with some bad luck, but overall his numbers are down out of the stretch.

Compare this with his career numbers in these three scenarios:

Bases empty: .250/.287/.373/.659, .292 BABIP
Runners on: .256/.304/.367/.671, .299 BABIP
RISP: .247/.300/.347/.647, .293 BABIP

The guy is basically the same pitcher in his career in all three scenarios, even stepping it up with RISP. That has been anything but the case this year. Hopefully it's mainly bad luck, but it's a problem I hope the coaches address with him in the off-season.

I guess another thing to root for is for the Nationals to keep winning and the Braves to keep losing, in hopes that the Nationals clinch with >9 games to go, making their Sept 25-27 series with the Phillies meaningless for them. The Oct 1-3 series with the Phillies seems very likely to be meaningless for them.

Who said they were gonna finish 8-12? I don't think that's what they'll do, but they're probably not gonna finish 16-4 either.

Halladay's velocity is down. Not to get into the velocity argument because . . . shudder . . . But that tells me he is still not physically right. Either he's pitching hurt. Or he was not able to get back into shape after his injury.

We will have to wait until next season to know if it's temporary or not. This is the Doc we're getting now. He's the fourth best starter on the team at this point. And he'd have to do some extraordinary things to catch up to the best pitcher on the team. Kyle Kendrick.

Playoff starting pitching: Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Halladay (only if you need a fourth starter in a short series.) Anyone think that's too extreme?

Here is how I'm looking at it, re: long playoff odds.

As of yesterday, they had 21 games to make up 5 games on the Cards, 4 games on the Dodgers (I'll admit, I'm not paying attention to Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, perhaps mistakenly- however, I believe if the Phils play well enough to pass the other two teams, those teams won't be a concern).

In the previous 21 games before yesterday, the Phils went 15-6 and cut 5 games off in the standings from the Cards (10-11). They cut even more off of LA's lead in that time.

So I get it that the odds are long for them to make up that much in so little time, but they just did it, to both teams, in their last 21 games. Does that make it more likely to happen? No. But does it make me more hopeful as a fan? Absolutely. Not to mention the fact that they already shaved a game off both team's margins in the first of the 21 remaining.

Halladay career: 6.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 1.167 WHIP, .7 HR/9
Halladay 2012: 7.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 1.155 WHIP, .9 HR/9

Yet he has a 100 ERA+ in 2012 and a 135 ERA+ in his career. His BABIP is the same, but i did see a rise in LD% and LOB% this year. Basically, he's not getting out of jams as well as he usually does.

Obviously his velocity is down, but he's got good enough offspeed stuff that he's still missing bats at his usual rate for his career. He has tailed off from his last two years in Philly in terms of K%, but he's well proven as a pitcher that doesn't need a high % to dominate.

Iceman, I think Doc is struggling with release point from the stretch. When he's able to throw from the windup he seems more comfortable with his delivery and release. From the stretch I don't think he is getting in the same arm angle. I of course don't have the ability to split screen the two shots (maybe someone can?) I feel like that is the root of some of his problems.

aks, I would hesitatingly agree with your rotation for the playoffs (and feel terrible doing so our of my reverence for Doc, my favorite Phillie.) But I'd have Doc stretched and ready for any signs that another starter might be failing.

Is there any doubt Hamels would start in a one-game WC playoff?

iceman: touchè, much better stat to use than I did. His empty/runners/risp numbers are perfect picture of whats happening to him.

My first question...what is Doc doing out of the windup that he's not out of the stretch? Tipping pitches, older body needs full windup to generate same pitches?

No way in hell I'd have the sack to keep Doc out of a playoff rotation. The guy is an absolute beast and I'd go to battle with him even with his recent struggles. You know how badly this man wants a world series ring? All this talk is premature anyway for obvious reasons but no way in hell would I not start him.

Great posts by Iceman on Halladay and by can of corn.

Would love some additional insight on Doc as to why these numbers are what they are. Do most pitchers struggle this much more with runners on as Halladay has been lately? Were his previous numbers (that seemingly indicated an ability to shut the other team down with baserunners) part of what made him great as opposed to "most" pitchers? A head scratcher for me, but then I'm a card carrying member of the moronocracy.

Joe D- maybe that is the case. I will watch for this the next time I get to catch him on TV.

There's clearly something up, though, mechanically or otherwise, with him when he is pitching with runners on. It's not just his peripherals that play that out- he's slowing the game down and throwing junk up there. It's incredibly disconcerting to watch, because they guy used to raise his game with guys on- particularly last year, when he was practically JC Romero in the clutch:

2011 Runners on: .220/.251/.249 (!!!)/.500, .285 BABIP
2011 RISP: .233/.263/.257 (!!!)/.521, .296 BABIP

How do you get the accent mark, lorecore? (You need it to go the other way, by the way.)

If we are fortunate enough to attain the 2nd WC spot, the first question is who pitches that game? And since we'd have to be fighting down to the last game, it would largely come down to whose turn it is, I think. Hopefully, it wouldn't be Cloyd's. If so, would Charlie start one of the big 3 on short rest?

Count me in re: praise for Can of Corn's post.

And I can't believe no one expressed concern over clout's desire to spank people.

Phils 2013 schedule official on their website. That weirdo blog I linked to actually had it right.

Iceman, I really think it's all about arm angle and he can't get himself into it from the stretch. Also, throwing from the stretch and not getting that momentum you build from a windup is putting additional strain on that lat muscle.

And if the Phillies end up in a tie with another team for the second WC, I presume the tie is broken by some rules such as head-to-head matchup, etc?

With as many teams as there are vying for the second spot, this seems to be a real possibility.

I see the 2013 schedule...got the e-mail from the Phillies. No real enticing weekend getaway series. Unless you like Detroit...ha!

Is Hamels lined up to be the first available pitcher after the regular season? Because it seems that if they make it they'll need to still be playing crucial games all the way to the end and there's no way to set up a rotation.

Damn. No weekend San Diego series.

"Playoff starting pitching: Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Halladay (only if you need a fourth starter in a short series.) Anyone think that's too extreme?"

Yep. Kendrick could put up zeroes from now until the end of the year, and Halladay could keep being the average pitcher he has been all year. I'll still take Doc over Kendrick in my rotation every single time. Anyway, it's moot. There is no chance in the world that Cholly would ever remove Halladay from the playoff rotation. In fact, if we were to make it, and Cholly had the luxury of slotting his starters in whatever order he wanted, I guarantee you Doc would be starting Game 1. He shouldn't be, but he would.

Little Ollie, I believe it's gonna be a play-in-for-a-play-in game. Basically they could be playing three sudden death games (last game of the regular season, play-in for last WC, play-in game between two wild cards) in three nights. I would have to double my scotch intake that week.

Thanks, Cyclic. So if there's a tie for the second WC, there's a one-game playoff followed by the second one-game playoff for the winner. You're effectively in the playoffs by tying for the second spot.

Someone writes about the slim chance of a 7-way tie in the AL. Included here is a link to MLB tiebreaker rules. I'll let you all figure them out.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1331143-who-would-escape-alive-from-nightmare-7-way-al-tie-in-mlb-playoff-chase

If the Phillies manage to squeak into the playoffs there will almost certainly be no way to set the rotation. Next man up pitches.

BAP is absolutely right. Doc gets Game 1, no questions asked.

And actually, thinking about it rationally, it might line up that way anyway. You don't want 2012 Doc pitching the (at least one) play-in game, and I don't think Manuel will either. Love Doc to death, but Hamels pitches that game. If there were two, you'd want Hamels-Lee. So if that's the case, Doc would be lined up for Game 1 anyway. And that's not exactly an awful situation to be in.

I feel so dirty talking about this, though. We are jinxing the crap out of this.

Jinx isn't real. What happens will happen whether we post comments or not.

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=phi&partnerId=aw-5998340496605740196-1053#y=2013&m=4&calendar=DEFAULT

Phils schedule for 2013. I liked the 2nd WC but wasn't crazy at all about additional Interleague games & through out the season.

Maybe I am getting to a middle-aged geezer but I would much rather see teams in the NL Central or West for an additional series instead of playing random AL teams. Since Interleague games continues to boost attendance though, I anticipate we will never see a retreat from it.

Owners will do what is best for their pockets everytime and anytime they say 'we are doing it for the fans/game' they are basically lying/fibbing. It's money.

If the rotation stayed as planned the rest of the season it would be Lee's turn to pitch in the WC game or WC play-in game.

The Phils have 2 off days on 9/20 & 9/24 so Hamels would be scheduled to pitch on 6 days rest for his 9/26 start.
They could swap Cole & Cloyd's starts (9/25 & 26) so Hamels only has one extra day of rest in which case he could pitch in the WC game on 10/5 on regular rest although it would still be Lee's turn. Unless they skipped Cloyd's 9/25 start altogether then Lee would finish the regular season and Hamels would be ready for 10/5 on regular rest.

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EST. 2005

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