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Thursday, September 13, 2012

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Drew, you posted a new thread 4 minutes after your boss. Is there some competition going on at BL HQ?

Haha, Jason is not my boss. But yes, we hate each other.

When history gets rewritten often enough, the lie replaces truth.

If you go back and read stories that followed those trades, you'll see that the guy who was a problem in the clubhouse was Bell. But Bell was pretty much washed up and the Phils lost nothing in his trade. But the Abreu/Lidle trade cost the team the pennant that year and when Abreu went on a tear the rest of the season (and added a bunch of productive seasons afterward) and the players acquired for him were all failures, stories began to crop up along the lines of, "Well, he was a problem in the clubhouse."

Self-delusional justification for one of the worst trades in team history.

If, by (say a 4%) chance, the Phillies are still playing baseball when Halloween comes around, they should have an alumni costume night at CBP where former players come dressed as various famous historical figures and pop culture icons.

Pete Incaviglia and Sal Fasano can team up and go as Mario and Luigi.

*cough cough* Just woke up from a coma. Anything interesting happen since I last posted in May?

I was about to get up and warn Drew to expect the Clout Abreu Trade Rebuttal in a matter of minutes, but alas, too late.

Drew: ummm have you seen Pence Vic and Blanton's numbers?

Yeah, that was what I was going to write about originally. I see your point, but if given the opportunity to add Pence, Victorino and Blanton back to the roster now, no questions asked, would you take any of them?

As a biased DOM endorser, nope.

Hwakes: "Pete Incaviglia and Sal Fasano can team up and go as Mario and Luigi."

This is tremendous.

Clout likes to criticize what he sees as a lie replacing truth through repletion but using a personal fantasy repeated ad nauseum until he believes it's a truth.

It's a demonstrable fact that the Phillies got better without Abreu. Whether there is any causation in that correlation is irrelevant when your main rebuttal is a hypothetical of what *might* have happened had he stayed.

I'll take actual pennants in '08 and '09 over an imaginary one in '06.

but if given the opportunity to add Pence, Victorino and Blanton back to the roster now, no questions asked, would you take any of them?

For nothing? Yes.

Bobby Abreu may be the most overrated player ever. Certainly the most overrated Philly. Sat in right field and saw him shy away from a fly ball my 10 year old daughter would have caught. Brett Myers glared at him.

"I'll take actual pennants in '08 and '09 over an imaginary one in '06."

Abreu could have left via FA in 08 and 09, so there is no correlation. Abreu went .330/.416/.507 with the Yanks in 06. Chris Roberson got starts in RF for the Philies...thats all that needs to be said.

"While the Phillies were making their September push in 2006, you were legitimately glad that Abreu, Bell, etc. were off the team . . . But now, wouldn't you take Victorino back in a second? Pence too."

The statistics suggest exactly the opposite, actually. Abreu absolutely killed it for the Yankees over the last 2 months of 2006 (.330/.419/.507/.926), while we were starting 4th outfield/platoon types like David Delucci & Jeff Conine. This year, Pence, Vic, and Blanton have all been awful for their new teams, while Mayberry (elevated to full-time starting duty after the trade) has been raking and Dom, though not great, has still out-hit Vic.

I always think it's a little speculative to assume that the guy would have hit the same way if the trade had never happened. However, their post-trade numbers are the best information we have to go on, and they tell us that we've probably been better off over the last 6 weeks without Vic, Pence, and Blanton. They also tell us that we were considerably worse off over the last 2 months of 2006, without Abreu.

That said, if I could take back any of the trades for the last 19 games of the season, I'd take back the Pence trade. The others, no.

Would we have to give up the prospects we got in return? I rather like the haul we pulled.

I'd take Vic back for free (a la Sophist), not for his regular season play but rather on the off chance we do make the post season. He seemed to have a knack for timely October plays, and that's exactly when his energy seemed to play best.

I miss Victorino to the extent that we now have Mayberry as the everyday CF. Pence I don't miss in the slightest.

One way that year is analogous to this one: The surge was due to significantly improved results from the starting rotation.

(p.s. Abreu wasn't "addition by subtraction." It was a new GM shedding payroll and adding flexibility.)

Hawkes: I may have been unclear in my post. One can make a very good case that the Phillies would've won the pennant in 2006 had the Abreu trade not happened based on the Abreu/Lidle stats and those who replaced them. But, as you say, that is speculation.

The lie is that Abreu was a clubhouse cancer. The facts are the trade was a disaster in terms of the value of the players traded and the value of the players aqcuired.

Let me know if you don't understand what I just wrote.

Agree with the overall point, but Mayberry has been much more productive than Victorino since the trade.

It's so hard to make comparisons because of the addition of Utley and Howard in the lineup.

One more thing...when is the last time that September/very late callups have swung games in the Phillies favor? Aumont/De Fratus have been very good additions.

I feel the same as Scotch Man. I think Victorino could still be serviceable for this team right now. Pence however wore out his welcome and his defensive inefficiencies coupled with a lot of bad ABs in key situations are not missed. He was asked to be the man this year and he wasn't used to it. Maybe he'd be better in a complimentary role again with Utley and Howard back but who knows. Much of his 2011 success was due to an insanely high BABIP. A regression to the mean on that this year and his grating style of play was enough for me.

It's precisely because I wouldn't take Victorino or Pence back that this run reminds me so much of 2006.

Pence was the team leader in HRs. Hard to argue that we couldn't use him down the stretch, no?

BTW, just to be clear, I'm NOT advocating reversing the trade. I'd rather keep Joseph & Rosin. But the question was simply "wouldn't you take him back?"

No, I wouldn't take him back for a number of reasons. First, you had to get rid of him to give Dom Brown this audition for next season. I've been a lurker here so I know this may not be very popular, but I'm also of the belief that he and Victorino's general approach to the game (or more specifically, their complete and utter lack of approach at the plate) were key contributors to the team's overall struggles. Both were essentially rally-killers, while the hallmark of this run (like every other) has been the 2-out hits with RISP.

I feel like shedding Victorino and Pence got this team back to playing good fundamental baseball. I am very thankful for what both contributed to the team while they were here but the ugly parts of their game were exceptionally ugly at a time where there was no room for it.

Also, am I the only one who remembers that late-game home run by David Bell in Cincinnati down the stretch in 2005 to give the Phils a come-from-behind win? I always had a soft spot for him after that.

Yeah, don't look now, but Mayberry has been better than Vic since the trade.

I remember that Rob but I remember far too much of everything else for David Bell to ever find himself in good graces with me.

Phils used the 'Abreu savings' to sign Eaton and enable them to pick up Garcia via trade.

Never understand who people think that trade worked in the Phils' favor. It was a clusterf@ck all around.

Yeah, David Bell blew, but I'll never forget that. I forget the exact circumstances but I want to say it was with two outs in the 9th. I remember it being extremely improbable, especially since it was David Bell.

Here is the boxscore from that Bell game, Rob:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN200509230.shtml

I seem to have time travelled back into 2006, and we're still arguing about Bobby Abreu. Was he the most overrated player in Philly history, or the most underrated? History may have to decide, since the present doesn't seem to be able to make up its mind.

Moondog: Which do you think is more helpful w/r/t winning baseball games? Honorable outfield defense or a .415 OBP?

Anyone who suggests that Philadelphia sports fans are more knowledgeable than sports fans from other cities should take a random poll of 100 Philadelphians about Bobby Abreu and then compare the results to what Bobby Abreu actually did.

Abreu was overrated as a fielder. But, I would take 2006 Bobby ABreu and plug him in RF on this team in a heartbeat. Who's in charge of squelching this ceaseless debate on Beerleaguer?

Awesome, Joe. With two outs in the five-run 9th. Also note that Kenny Lofton is in the 2-hole. Memories.

Will Bobby Abreu end up on the Wall of Fame?

Anybody writing a dissertation on how statistics can be misleading should use Bobby Abreu as the foreword.

Lofton raked for the Phillies. .335/392/.420. So good.

I loved Abreu but I also know when to let someone go. It was time for him, much like it was probably time for Pence and Victorino. Wanting someone gone doesn't mean you don't understand the impact they had on the franchise. Abreu was one of the best outfielders this franchise has ever seen. I absolutely loved watching him hit and work a count. And in his prime his wheels were terrific. Hell he was still stealing bags a few years ago with his increasing age. He did most things well to incredibly well. So he didn't run into walls? Honestly who cares? Aaron Rowand did it once and people want to marry the guy. He was a dog otherwise who also got a ton of bad reads on balls and was a suspect outfielder.

Saying Bobby Abreu is overrated because he didn't run into walls is like saying Roy Halladay is overrated because he's bad at bunting.

Bobby Abreu isn't overrated because he didn't run into walls, he's overrated because he amassed the majority of his statistics early in games and in meaningless games. He was totally useless in any clutch situation.

Meaningless games being primarily blowouts.

Rob: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=abreubo01&year=Career&t=b#lever

Career: .934 high leverage OPS, .886 medium leverage OPS, .836 low leverage OPS

NO! I would not take Victorino, Pence or Blanton back now. What got them where they are is the infusion of youth and enthusiasm! With Victorino, Pence and Blanton, you would have had none of that. The season was over if you kept them.

Abreu's OPS in the second half for his career was higher than that in the first half. In his career he was a .311/.433/.509 hitter with RISP. He had a .888 OPS when the game was tied and an .864 OPS when the game was within 4 runs. His career OPS in high leverage situations was .934 compared to .836 in low leverage situations.

Abreu had his faults, though.

Rob, I just glanced over Abreau's career stats in RISP, clutch, high leverage, by month, and pretty much all of it goes completely against everything you said.

Abreu*

And no player can amass the majority of their statistics in blowouts. There are only so many a year. Abreu has 54 career HR in the 1st inning and 41 in the 6th. Considering he has over 1600 career AB in the 1st and less than 1000 in the 6th, I'd say he didn't discriminate much.

Rob: "He was totally useless in any clutch situation."

Arguably the stupidest, most embarrassing post in the history of Beerleaguer.

I was about to post the facts, but DH Phils beat me to it.

I wouldn't take Blanton back. Are you kidding me? He could get shelled anywhere, at any time. Cloyd has shown the ability to at least get AAA hitters out (which is what the Astros entire lineup is comprised of), and even delivered a nice performance against the Reds. I'll take my chances with him for a handful of starts. Also, Kendrick's success makes it a non-starter.

Second-half Mayberry appears to be a real thing. So does Victorino's year from hell- he hasn't gotten any better since switching uniforms. So I wouldn't replace him with Vic.

But I would take either Vic or Pence over what we have gotten out of Brown in RF/LF. Giving him a chance a month ago seemed harmless. Not so much the case anymore, though I still want to see if he can improve. But I wouldn't bank on it.

Like Sophist said, though, I'd take them back for free (Pence and Vic, not Blanton). If we had to give back what we got for them, hell no. I'd take my chances with the team they have.

And just to chime in on Abreu, I'd take him TODAY over most of what we have off the bench.

@ DH Phils

.853 OPS in "late and close" games. .934 OPS (the highest of any of the "clutch" categories) in games with margins of greater than four runs.

"934 OPS (the highest of any of the "clutch" categories) in games with margins of greater than four runs."

9912 career PA and 1227 in that latter category. 46 of his career 286 HR. Yeah, really padding his stats there.

The 2012 - I repeat, 2012 - Phillies are 3 GB of WC2 and today's hot topics are:

a) Ryan Braun/chain of custody
b) Bobby Abreu's defense

What did you people do on your honeymoons?

I think I would take Victorino back because he had some big moments in the playoffs during his Phillies career, and if we somehow make it, he could help. I was mad about the Pence trade because we had him for another year, but I'm okay with it now. I would not want Pence back right now. Blanton is only interesting because of what's happened to Worley. Dare I say this? "Let's stick with Kendrick".

The worst threads on BL are the one hit wonders that are like running battles on one topic all day long. The only thing worse is one that has already been beaten to death. Today we have two of them. Thanks for the great new thread Drew.

Are there any options at all for 3B? Any waiver candidates etc?

I will forever defend Abreu against all evil-doers. Especially the insanely biased ones.

"I feel like shedding Victorino and Pence got this team back to playing good fundamental baseball."

Eh . . . I don't know. When I think of "good fundamental baseball," Dom Brown, Michael Martinez, and Ty Wigginton are not really the guys whose names spring to mind. I tend to think the Phillies' changed fortunes are almost entirely a result of better pitching from both the starters and bullpen. Their defense & fundamentals still look pretty bad.

What did you people do on your honeymoons?

Posted by: STS

I got my new wife pregnant.

Abreu's numbers in almost every single situation are remarkably consistent. He is a better hitter with RISP. Any clutch stats where he doesn't perform up to his normal career slash line (and there aren't many), it is by a razor's edge. Not nearly enough to earn this weird reputation he has.

Only cavernous split I see for Abreu over his career, besides a platoon split:

In Wins: .331/.436/.550/.986
In Losses: .249/.350/.396/.745

Maybe this is why he has the rep? Because as he went, so went the team? I don't know. I can't explain it.

And the clubhouse cancer stuff is stupid. I think it's entirely bred from his supposed refusal to bat lead-off.

@ sophist

The argument wasn't that Bobby Abreu was a bad player, it was that he's overvalued by people who obsess over his stats.

Having relatively worse numbers in late-and-close situations is normal because they include a disproportionate number of PA against the very best pitchers in baseball.

"What did you people do on your honeymoons?"
Argued over whether it was a brushburn or a rash.

Getting WAYYYYYY ahead of ourselves here: I know there is a rule about being on the roster by August 31st in order to be eligible for the postseason roster. Assuming the Phillies make the playoffs...is there a way for Aumont to be on the postseason roster? Would moving guys like Polanco to the 60 day DL work, or is there no shot at that happening. I ask because he seems to be Charlie's new 8th inning guy, and he's done pretty well so far.

Rob - What gave you the sense that I was confused? You claim his stats masked his inadequacies in key spots, that he padded his stats early and folded late. The facts happens to contradict your point of view in almost all instances.

Iceman - Those splits hold for pretty much every player in the history of baseball.

We're really discussing this? Again? Really?

Clout - thanks for the scouting report on Harrell that you posted earlier.

E.G., Utley

Wins: .326/.415/.586
Losses: .237/.322/.389

DH - True at 345. Also notable that Abreu had a .920 OPS against righties and a .750 OPS against lefties, so a specialist would make him more average late in games.

Sophist- jeez, I'm not slamming Abreu for it. I was looking for an explanation. I think the rep is stupid, also.

People are so sensitive about this subject it's absolutely ridiculous.

"What did you people do on your honeymoons?"

I watched the Phillies World Series in a bar in Maui.

Iceman -- If I come off as sensitive I apologize. Writing up posts while doing something else, so not paying much attention to tone. Just making the quick point.

Iceman, slow your roll, I think Sophist was just helping you out with the explanation on the split. You did say "I can't explain it" after all.

donc: I know it's been beaten to death, but I can't help it. If it were one person saying indefensibly stupid things about Bobby Abreu, that would be one thing, but it's not. For some reason, a huge portion of the fan base got these weird ideas in their head that have no basis in reality and are far crazier than anything else posted here on a day-to-day basis.

You can argue about how good Charlie Manuel is, or how valuable Howard is, or whether Pence should have been traded: for all of these controversial topics, there are reasonable points made on both sides. On the Bobby Abreu debate, a seeming majority of Phillies fans (judging by boos at the ballpark when LA was in town) hold opinions about him that are just off-the-wall, bats8it crazy.

Where'd you stay at in Maui Bed's Beard? I spent my honeymoon there as well. Not that year though.

I got movitch's wife pregnant on my honeymoon too.

"You did say "I can't explain it" after all."

Yeah, I only said it as broadly as I did cos it's one of those crazy things. Networks love posting the Reyes numbers in Mets wins or Rollins numbers in Phils wins as if to prove some great point. But it can't really prove that point since it holds for pretty much any regular player ever.

STS: You're in the wrong place. Need to tune in to WIP.

I'm trying to decide whether acquiring Lindblom has helped our BP or been a wash or what.

Saw this on Crashburn Alley about the BP, from a few days ago:
http://crashburnalley.com/2012/09/07/phillies-bullpen-shockingly-good-in-august/

BB, Joe D - If it was a decent bar, I'm guessing Lahaina. If you were willing to settle on the "bar" vibe I hope it was Wailea or Kapalua. Damn I miss Maui...

JW and Weitzel, get it together. See what happens when two new threads start four minutes apart? My head begins to hurt as we yet again discuss the merit, or lack of with the Abreu trade.

Up next, why did we trade Cliff Lee?

Please, start the game thread!


Joe D: Shertaton Kaanapali & Ritz Carlton.
WP- you go to the Lahaina Grill-tremendous restaurant.

Eh, meant Drew and Weitzel. This website, like Facebook, desperately needs an edit function for posts.

I just wish that runs scored in the first few innings were worth as much as late-inning runs...for Bobby's sake that is.


Not that his splits even support such an idiotic suggestion.

Sophist- sorry, I'm doing the same. Mistook the tone completely. My fault.

Honestly didn't know about the cavernous splits in wins/losses being universal, though.

WP, I miss Maui too man. One day I'll grow the sack to just pick up and move there.
BB: I checked out the Sheraton and Ritz Carlton but hear Kapalua got rain sometimes in October when I was staying. I went with the Fairmont Kea Lani in Wailea though. Pretty much heaven on earth.

What did you people do on your honeymoons?

In between (and sometimes during) our marital relations, we talked about the Abreu trade and it's impact on our future relationship. She thought the trade was an abomination and cited Abreu's stats. Even though I liked Abreu, I thought it was a necessary evil and cited their record after the trade.

Ryan Lawrence ‏@ryanlawrence21
RT @brianmctaggart #Phils lineup: SS Rollins, LF Pierre, 2B Utley, 1B Howard, CF Mayberry, RF Brown, 3B Frandsen, C Kratz, P Cloyd.

SS Rollins, LF Pierre, 2B Utley, 1B Howard, CF Mayberry, RF Brown, 3B Frandsen, C Kratz, P Cloyd.

Trying to offer alternate topics: I asked about Lindblom's net value to the team since he was part of the Vic trade. I've posted tonight's lineup. And for my 3rd attempt to change the topic, here:

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN
Chase Utley taking balls off the bat at third base in early BP

I stayed at the Ritz my first time. Pretty cool but too far out of the way for me (though the Maui Brewing Company restaurant down the road became a regular haunt).

Last time I stayed right down in Lahaina. Different vibe, but still just as amazing. Fabulous little town.

Wailea is next up in my cross hairs. Big Beach here I come!

RBill's post is very funny, though.

Frandsen is back? But what about the Mini Mart Reverse Jinx????

Someone get Cholly on the phone (land line, I'd presume).

I got movitch's wife pregnant on my honeymoon too.

Posted by: lorecore

You probably did my friend. She's been my ex for awhile now. How's she doing, by the way?

GBrett, as intrigued as I am, I continue to expect that we won't see Chase get any 3B time until the Phils are officially out of the race.

Add in that Pete Orr must have crapped on the clubhouse rug or something (I'm speculating based on his PT) and I'm not even sure what the corresponding move for 2B would be.

Actually, don't answer that...

I'm predicting a long, happy marriage for RBill.

Note to Yankee Haters: Orioles-Rays tied 2-2 in 11th is now on MLB TV.

I see Strasburg is done. Lannan pitching for him. Does this mean he'll have a chance to hit Utley when we play them?

Article about it all:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120913&content_id=38358966&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Manuel still hates Orr for the error he had in Baltimore. My man can hold a grudge. Except when it comes to one Michael Martinez.

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