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Thursday, August 23, 2012


BTW, my dear friend Jack has been right on the money all along about this guy. He's nothing special, never will be anything special. Just a fungible middle relief type guy, former Grade C prospect. The Phillies got a million of 'em.

this is what drives me nuts. the phils "sold", yet they're not really missing the pieces they sold. it's still the bullpen that is killing them. they'd be in the hunt if they had one reliable piece outside of papelbon (and even he hasn't been that amazing).

Come on.
Our draft position got a little better...and Domonic Brown with real, live extra base hits! He pulled the ball!

Lindblom's 2HR/9 in mostly NL West parks don't fit in at CBP, but he did go nearly 30IP in his rookie year--no HRs allowed. I wonder what's changed (last two seasons, different stories).

While my support of Lindblom has been pretty fruitless, I'll point out that pitching him a 2nd inning vs lefty power guy like Jay Bruce is basically putting him in the worst situation possible to succeed.

It doesn't excuse it, but what a horrible matchup for the Phils, with basically the entire pen available.

oops, this is lindblom's second season.

There was no apatite among contenders to give up a key bullpen piece for either of our outfielders, as the Phillies are showing this year, you need those bullpen guys to compete. Martin is the real key to the Vic trade, not Lindblom.

I just don't understand why you would target a guy like Lindblom when trading a piece like Victorino. It's essentially getting nothing back in return, because as Clout says, he's completely fungible.

I said before the trade, at the time of the trade, and I maintain now, that trying to obtain a reliever because of how bad the bullpen has been so far is just stupid and pointless and an overreaction from a front office without a real plan. No team was going to give up a dominant reliever for Victorino, and after that, they're all pretty much the same, and we have plenty of guys like Lindblom.

Of course plenty of people on BL loved it, because they just simply thought "oh, our bullpen has been bad--let's get a reliever." But the simple truth is that trading for someone else's mediocre middle reliever isn't a way to improve your mediocre middle relief.

I just hope Ethan Martin turns into something.

His friends call him Josh...

DOM after the game:

"I think they're just throwing me more in," said Brown, asked if he feels he is pulling the ball more. "I think they're checking out the charts. It's a cat-and-mouse game, and I've got to make the adjustments just like they're doing."

I'd agree, started out spraying the ball to left/center early on, but now has 3 2B and a HR in his last 4 games, all to RF/RC.

Deep down I want the Phillies to win every game they play, but it'd be nice if the Phillies could get a protected 1st rd pick while letting rookies compete for 2013 roster spots and Utley, Howard, & Polanco show if they can contribute next year too. Gillies up over .300, I wonder if he'll get a cup of coffee this year.

Re: The Phillips v. Utley debate. The "fielding stats are without flaws" crowd will point to UZR, UZR 150, runs saved etc., all of which are subjective stats based on observation. They do not account for all manner of variables, including condition of the field (some fields have higher grass which slows the ball), who the defender plays next to and overall chances, which are dependent of whether you have fly ball or ground ball pitchers.

They are rough measures at best, but they are all we have and thus, quite useful in separating the bad from the good. Where things get dicey is in trying to separate two very good defenders, which Phillips and Utley are. It is like trying to do open heart surgery with a butcher knife instead of a scalpel.

In terms of errors, Phillips makes fewer, but even that stat is flawed because of the advent of biased unprofessional official scoring.

My personal opinion is that Phillips is both quicker to react and faster than Utley and thus has more natural range. This is why he's won more Gold Gloves. But there is no one in baseball who is smarter in positioning himself, and making adjustments for game situation, than Utley. Which means he is usually in the right place at the right time to make the play.

He's only 25, plus it's only a handful of games. So it's a little soon.

For two months of Vic, who wasn't performing? It's still a very good trade. The Phils were basically dealing with two teams that needed OF and they managed trades to both of them.

Ioctastic: That's the kind of attitude that I think is the problem. First off, the idea that they're only one bullpen piece away from being competitive is silly. This offense is horrible, and even with Pence and Victorino, it was only middle of the road, and Shane was gone after this year anyway. So you're still a 3B and a CF short heading into next season.

And second, it's just really hard to "fix" a bullpen. How do you propose doing it? Relief pitchers are so inconsistent outside of ther very top ones, that it is silly to throw money at guys that essentially bounce back and forth between being really good and replacement level. The best way to develop a bullpen is to have a lot of guys in your farm system with great "stuff" and hope a couple of them turn out well. And to get lucky with a couple FA signings or trade pieces. Even then, you want to be targeting guys who have flashed dominant stuff but have had troubles elsewhere for whatever reason. Simply getting mediocre arms is a way to ensure mediocrity.

Cole: Here's a radical thought. Maybe Lindblom's 30 IP last season wasn't a big enough sample size to tell you anything.

I wouldn't be a bit shocked to see Victorino return to Philadelphia on a 3 year deal.

Jack: Well said.

"Charlie's explanation of playing Polanco to see what he's got? Why, we know he's not going to be back next year, so why do you need to know?"

I wouldn't bet on that. Unless a better 3B option presents itself in a trade, I expect to see Polanco as a Philly in 2013.

JW: How would you compare Lindblom to, say, Schwimmer? Or Stutes? Or Justin De Fratus? Or Herndon? Or Aumont? Or B.J. Rosenberg?

Do you see the point? He was just one of those guys that every team has. I'm sure he'll turn out better than a couple of those guys, and worse than a couple of those guys. But there's nothing in his past to indicate he's anything more than just a guy.

clout: so what would that make of his 8 IP in Philly?

clout, good post. I personally think they are (or, possibly in utley's case, were, due to his recent injuries) both excellent defenders, and I would say that advanced positioning plus good range is probably better in general than just great range alone.

I just took exception to your calling it "wishful thinking" that Utley was a better defender.

Jack: It takes time. Everyone is so young and inexperienced. De Fratus hasn't even pitched an inning in the Bigs. How should I know anything about him?

I mean ... there's a reason guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Chad Qualls and Todd Coffey last forever. And even if I don't agree with it, there's a reason you give Papelbon $50 million. It's tough to find guys who can do it.

Phils are trying to figure it out internally instead of rolling the dice with another Danys Baez or Qualls. Can't really blame them.

But do they need to find a veteran or two this winter, a failed starter like Durbin in 2008 for example? Absolutely.

***They are rough measures at best, but they are all we have and thus, quite useful in separating the bad from the good. Where things get dicey is in trying to separate two very good defenders, which Phillips and Utley are. It is like trying to do open heart surgery with a butcher knife instead of a scalpel. ***

Where it fails: Total Zone LOVES Utley and always has. It absolutely HATES Phillips. Utley is far and away at the top of the list whereas Phillips is something like 3rd from the bottom.

UZR likes both but Utley is still ahead.

Makes you wonder.

The other thing is that top bullpen prospects don't really exist. If their arm is worth anything, they're being groomed for the rotation or off the table.

Top bullpen "prospects" look a lot like Lindblom, Aumont, De Fratus, Schwimer, etc.

JW: " even if I don't agree with it, there's a reason you give Papelbon $50 million."

I can't think of any.

JW: Oh, I agree completely on bullpen prospects. That's why I wouldn't have tried to trade Victorino for a bullpen prospect.

I would have preferred to trade him for a real prospect, generally. I like Ethan Martin somewhat, I just think Amaro could have gotten himself a better return had he not focused solely on trying to improve the bullpen, which he didn't really do because he was only going to get back someone else's mediore reliever.

You're not getting a real prospect for two months of Victorino.

***The other thing is that top bullpen prospects don't really exist. If their arm is worth anything, they're being groomed for the rotation or off the table.***


It's nice to see the extra base power from Brown the last few days, but Wolf, Leake, and Arroyo do not have big fastballs. I'd like to see the power against a pitcher throwing 93+, which Dom has struggled with so far this year.

The problem w/ Lindblom isn't 2012, it's the years ahead. Giving him a chance to fail in meaningless games -- & watching him do so, over & over -- ought to provide the Phillies w/ a hint that perhaps a no-movement fastball & hanging sliders aren't a great combo. Unfortunately, the Phillies aren't esp. adept at taking such hints.

jbird mentioned Gillies; I'd like to see him get a September callup since he's already on the 40 man and we're a bit thin on guys who can legitimately play CF (I mention legit because you really can't include Nix let alone Mini-Mart). As long as we're "seeing what guys have got" we might as well see about Gillies as well.

Gillies is also white hot right why not bring him up in Sept? No different than ST at this point.

Regarding Lindbomb, I really don't believe RAJ is dumb enough to think he was getting more than a league-average middle reliever in the deal. He has never shown more than that. As Weitzel mentioned, you couldn't have expected much more in return for 2 months of Vic.

Martin, on the other hand, is intriguing. It will be interesting to see how he progresses.

As for Brown, I'm a little bit concerned about his baserunning, but I'm willing to chalk it up to his leg problems from earlier this season.

However, if he's not running better next season with healthy legs, that's going to worry me some. Part of his plus offensive profile was the speed to steal 10-20 bags a year and be an above-average baserunner generally. If he doesn't do that, it just puts even more pressure on his power to develop.

Beerleaguer consensus:

1. "You were never going to get a prospect for Victorino."

2. "Ethan Martin looks like some kind of prospect."

Ethan Martin was the real target in that deal. Rube rolled the dice on a former 1st rounder figuring things out with a fresh start.

Speaking of Nix, here's his line since returning from the DL:

39 PA, 35 AB, 5 H, 1 XBH, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 18 K, .143 BA/.231 OBP/.171 SLG

And here are Wigginton's numbers for the same time period:

39 PA, 35 AB, 7 H, 1 XBH, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 9 K, .200 BA/.256 OBP/.286 SLG

I'm not sure why folks suddenly got all sweet on Laynce once he was injured, but in any event he & Wigginton have contributed next to nothing. The Phillies have gotten about as much out of Mayberry, & for a fraction of the cost.

Quinn really cranking it up in wport. That Lino kid is really starting to turn it on. We really have good catching depth now in minors.

re: relief prospects

Anyone know the story behind Julio Rodriguez appearing as a reliever over the last week or so? He was having an OK year at Reading as a 21yr old starter, wonder what the change was?

He's not a "stuff" guy either, so it makes the move to the pen even more odd.

Also, how long before Bonilla is jumping over the likes of schwimer/stutes/etc? He's wiping up AA competition (1.64 ERA, 12.5 K/9 in 33 IP) after his promotion, just as he's done ever since being moved to pen last year in A Ball.

There is no way Polanco is back next year. If he is, RAJ should be fired immediately.

I would go with Frandsen at 3B, PROVIDED they take the money saved at that position and use it for a big-time OF piece and several bullpen pieces.

I could live with that.

Lisalverto Bonilla hasn't pitched since injuring his hand horsing around at the Futures Game.

Jack: I think what they are meaning to say is you couldn't expect a "Major League Ready" prospect for 2 months of vic, which is probably true. Martin may end up proving to be a bit of a coup, but he's not major league ready at this point in time, at least in the eyes of either the Dodgers or Phillies FO's.

clout: so what would that make of his 8 IP in Philly?

lorecore: Even more meaningless.

Which leaves us with scouting reports and his minor league record, i.e. he's nothing special.

Outta Here: What is Frandsen's contract status for next year?

mm: I was never saying I expected a major-league ready prospect.

I would've happily taken a better prospect that was further away from the majors over Lindblom.

Frandsen is arb eligible.

KW: It does make you wonder until you realize how many subjective judgments enter into Total Zone. See explanation here:

Jack: People said you weren't getting a "real" prospect for Vic. They targeted a fading prospect in Martin, with hopes of returning to his original potential.

Your assumption that not taking Lindblom would have made the Dodgers give up a better prospect than Martin is overlooking the likely possbility that the Dodgers wouldn't have done the deal if they had to part with 1 player who was more valuable than Martin, regardless if there were other pieces included or not.

The dodgers system is pretty garbage, there wasn't much too take unless your giving them enough value to target their top 1-2 guys.

wow Bonilla is still out?

"mm: I was never saying I expected a major-league ready prospect."

Jack: I wasn't implying you specifically said that, sorry for any confusion. Not one of the people here who goes back through pages and pages of posts for a gotcha ;-)

"I would've happily taken a better prospect that was further away from the majors over Lindblom."

Isn't that what Ethan Martin is? He's a former no 1. pick only at AA.

So what they got in the deal was a "major league ready", below average bullpen piece, and a better, lower level prospect. We can personally argue with each other all day whether or not lindblom is ML ready, but the dodgers and phils must have viewed him that way at the time of the trade, for better or worse.

Probably what any other team would offer, perhaps with a different team the "bullpen piece" could be a utility IF or 4th outfielder, whatever, depends on the team. Or, perhaps your suggesting we could've targeted 2 guys like martin, better prospects, lower level of development.

Two months of .710 OPS and a solid, but not GG, center fielder. That's what the Dodgers are getting in Vic. Just don't see how that entices any team to surrender a top young player.

Ethan Martin is considered a high risk/high reward prospect. Odds of him making it in MLB are less than 50-50, but if he does make it, he's got the stuff to be a #2 SP.

Bonilla's probably the best relief prospect the Phillies have. He has been walking too many hitters at Reading but, at other levels, he has generally thrown strikes. If he hadn't gotten injured, I suspect he may have gotten a look-see at the major league level this year.

If this is deal to question, it is the 60 cents the Phils got in return for Pence. Classic Phils trade where they kind of excepted a mish mash of prospects and major league players. Combined that with what Amaro gave up a year earlier, it leans the Phils lacking on the balance ledger.

"If this is deal to question, it is the 60 cents the Phils got in return for Pence."

What's the dollar in this equation, what we gave up to get him?

If the dollar is 1.5 seasons of Pence, Amaro got pretty much an even deal.

MG: Agreed on the balance ledger, but disagree that Amaro got 60 cents on the dollar. Pence is having an off year and he is a free agent after next season. He makes $10.4M this season and is arb eligible, which means a raise for next year.

Just what do you think you could get for him?

Herndon is out of the equation with TJ surgery for at least the first half next year. Stunted has shoulder surgery that revealed more damage than they initially thought and has been shutdown for the year.

Phils needed another cheap RHP reliever. I was hoping they would get Lincoln from the Pirates but the Pirates weren't willing to trade him for Vic wisely. Got Snider instead.

Where the Phils really blew it was with Grilli. He was pitching pretty well at Lehigh when the Phils let him out opt all so they could keep Stutes and Herndon on the roster at the time. Turned out to be a big mistake.

MG: I totally agree about the Pence trade. Schierholtz is absolutely awful and, while Tommy Joseph has a decent upside, I find it appalling that we gave up a career .816 OPS hitter with 1.5 years of team control, and didn't come away with a near major league ready prospect.

I also find it appalling that we traded Pence to free up salary so that we can sign one of the outfielders on the free agent list -- not a one of whom will help the 2013 Phillies more than Hunter Pence would have.

***. Got Snider instead.***

Which was a coup for them overall.

Clout - moved pence first and foremost for the cash relief. He wasn't having a horrendous year and was under control for another year. Teams likely knew Amaro needed to move Pence for luxury payroll considerations and figured they wouldn't have to give up a top prospect to get him.

Amaro had to move him do he excepted an offer of quantity and not quality. Joseph was 3rd on the Giants depth chart and schoerholz is a part-time player.

To be fair on Grilli, he had had several years of crappy performance at the MLB level and only 32 innings of good performance in Lehigh. He was also in his Age 34 season at the time so its not fair to say it was an obvious mistake at the time.

re: relief "prospect" - there have been a few over the last several years, and teams have been drafting relievers in the 1st round of the draft for a while now. Matt Anderson was the 1st overall pick in 1997 (which allowed JD Drew to fall to us at #2). He was a reliever from day 1.

BAP: "I also find it appalling that we traded Pence to free up salary so that we can sign one of the outfielders on the free agent list -- not a one of whom will help the 2013 Phillies more than Hunter Pence would have."

Completely disagree. They need a CF, and DOM @ $400k > Pence @ $15M to me. Unless you think DOM should be in CF, then I guess your argument sticks, but i don't think you do.

MG: Because of position scarcity, Joseph might be the most valuable prospect in the Phillies minor league system.

BAP: "Absolutely awful" is a bit strong for an average bat, good glove, 4th outfielder, isn't it? He looks to me to be a pretty useful player.

I agree, though, that I would've kept Pence around for next year. I doubt you replace his production for that price without tacking on too many years onto someone's contract.

Due to scarcity, upside and nearness to the Majors, Joseph will get the nod over pretty much every other position prospect in our system. Its a tossup with Biddle for #1 overall.

lore: We do not just need a centerfielder. We need 3 outfielders. Dom will probably be one of them, but it remains an open question exactly how good he is going to be. I'll venture to guess that he won't be as good as Pence next year. I'd love to be wrong about that.

Grilli caught using PEDs in 3...2...1... (I keed)

I wonder if the Giants made us take Schierholtz in the Pence deal. As has been mentioned here before, he certainly seems like a redundant player given that Nix is signed to a MLB deal through next year. Why did Rube do that again?

I think Dom will turn out to be a pretty solid hitter. Not an all-star but definitely above average.

BAP: you aren't a big believer in the Babe Ruf-Tyson Gillies-Dom Brown outfield of the future?

Schierholtz had asked for a trade before the Pence deal to get playing time.

Could be part of it.

bap: if you kept Pence, you'd still need a CF but with no money to spend. They are going to have to come up short with one of their OF positions, and i'd rather have it be LF than CF.

Speaking of the Pirates, I really like what they did at the deadline. If I was a GM, I'd like to think that I'd spend my time looking around the league for buy-low, change-of-scenery guys who had fallen out of favor with their previous team for whatever reason. I think Travis Snider and Gaby Sanchez fit that description perfectly.

Really, they did the same thing with other big contributors to their team (Garrett Jones, James McDonald, A.J. Burnett). It seems like times are changing with the Pittsburgh front office.

"bap: if you kept Pence, you'd still need a CF but with no money to spend. They are going to have to come up short with one of their OF positions, and i'd rather have it be LF than CF."

100% correct.

Snider was a huge steal for them...and it was probably a mistake by AA to give him up for a reliever.

Of course, I think Snider also needed a change of scenery. He is/was a very good prospect and he's hit really well for them since they gave him regular playing time.

Just watched Dom's bomb again. Man did he clear his hands. I really hope that is the start of a power surge for him. His approach has been just as good as it was last year at the plate before he was stupidly sent down.

if you kept Pence, you'd still need a CF but with no money to spend.

If the Phillies are willing to incur the luxury tax, how so?

I agree w/ b_a_p that Pence should have been retained. If for whatever reason things didn't pan out in '13, the Phillies could have dumped him then for the same zero return.

I wonder how much truth there is to the "change of scenery" thing. Do guys develop better in new places because they get more comfortable, or because they get a new set of eyes on them, or is the effect not real at all, or is it just coincidence?

To use a Phillies example, it took Marlon Byrd 2 changes of scenery before he bloomed with Texas. If the Phillies had (for some reason) been willing to wait through 5 bad seasons hoping he'd put it together, would it have happened here? Is the late-bloom more a function of changing scenery, or just putting in so much time that you become a better player, coincident with the changing teams (which mediocre 5-year players usually do often)? I'd be curious to see if Fangraphs or somebody looked at this systematically.

Marlon Byrd also had some steroids to help him bloom.

DH Phils: I think the 'roids helped Byrd a lot more than any switch in geographical location.

Valle was usually ranked higher than Joseph going into this season, and he has actually rebounded pretty well after being promoted to AAA as a 21yr old.

I know a lot of people are saying Joseph improved his defense a lot this year, so his rankings are going up, but I don't think his year is enough to overtake Valle's spot as top catcher in the system.

Joseph is about a half-level ahead of Valle for his age, but Valle's 16 HR this year is enough to keep above i think. And its not like Joseph's k/bb are great, even though Valle's is pretty awful.

And I think Biddle will be #1 anyway, by a good margin.

I would have been ok with keeping Pence but I think the front office just tired of him. I personally couldn't take seeing him in the field anymore. With Howard and Utley back and hopefully healthy in 2013 then Pence could have slid back under the radar to be the complimentary piece he was brought here to be. I do think the return they got was pretty weak (time will tell of course) and I think it's even weaker given the fact we don't know what was known about Melky at the time.

Jimmy Rollins is on pace to set a major league record: Most seasons leading his league in outs. He is currently tied with Bobby Richardson with 4.

"The Phillies have been doing great in this category. Doug Glanville led the league twice. Juan Samuel three times, Larry Bowa twice, Cookie Rojas and Tony Taylor once each. 14 times a Phillie has led the league in outs in the last 50 years."

Thought I'd share this nugget, thanks to poster Crixpix Attucks on baseballthinkfactory.

Getting on the field day after day is a skill; sometimes you can get dinged for it too. :)

DH: "Absolutely awful" is a bit of poetic license. It's my way of saying: I really don't like this guy, no matter what his stat sheet might say.

I used to say that Ben Francisco was less than the sum of his parts and I'll say the same thing about Schierholtz, whom I've been watching for years. On offense, there's literally no skill that he brings to the table which is better than average. He hits for middling average; he doesn't walk; his power is below average; his speed is average to below average. He's left-handed but he doesn't have a strong platoon split for his career. And he's a terrific fielder but he can't play CF. I hate players like that -- especially when they're bench players. I like bench players who at least have one outstanding skill. Schierholtz's outstanding skill is that he's a strong fielding corner outfielder. Woop-de-doo!

Gtown: "If the Phillies are willing to incur the luxury tax, how so?"

If the Phillies are willing to incur the luxury tax, why was Pence even traded then?

Pence was salary dumped, i dont know how much more obvious it could be.

How many platoons is too many? That's my question. In 2013 we are staring down the possibility of having 3 platoons possibly. CF, RF and 3B. That's pretty scary.

It's easier to lead the league in outs when you also lead the league in pop-ups.

How many platoons is too many?

Is Charlie still the field manager? If so, one is too many.

I predict 3B and LF only(potential injuries aside) - i think CF will be filled with a full time starter. If 3B could be filled with an everyday guy, i think the Phils would do it, but theres just simply no way to.

You cant have 3 platoons with a 5 man bench...or even 2. It would masively limit your ability to make any changes and it would kill you in the later innings.

lore: Who is this centerfielder that they're going to sign with the Hunter Pence money?

If it's Michael Bourn, I think they'll come to seriously regret it in short order. If it's BJ Upton, then you will have replaced Vic & Pence with Upton & Brown and I can't see how anyone could argue that isn't, at the very least, a short-term downgrade. If it's Vic, then you've merely swapped Pence for Dom -- again, a downgrade in at least the near term. If it's Melky Cabrera -- well, never mind.

Yeah. You'd hate for Charlie's mastery of late innings strategy to be hindered. Sh*t, the ball club might even find itself in danger of losing an otherwise winnable game!

"If it's Michael Bourn, I think they'll come to seriously regret it in short order."


I'd be surprised if Brown was in a standard platoon next year. I think they view him as an everyday player.

I guess I'm missing the signs where Bourn is right on the cusp of falling off a cliff numbers-wise. Do we want to field the most competitive team possible for 2013 or do we want the FO to skimp out because you're afraid Bourn might not always be this good?

He's the best CF available and will improve the team offensively, defensively, and on the bases. How they would regret signing him 'in short order' is a complete mystery.

lorecore: Everything I've heard is that the Phillies ARE willing to go over the luxury tax threshold for one year -- which makes the Pence trade especially nonsensical.

But, if we follow your logic & assume that the $178M threshold is the de facto budget, then it is false reasoning to say that trading Pence frees up his estimated $14M 2013 salary. Before all their trades, the Phillies were right at that $178M threshold this year. So what the Pence trade frees up is what they paid Pence THIS YEAR -- which is $10M. For $10M, you won't get Michael Bourn -- if that is indeed the guy you think they should get.

"If it's Michael Bourn, I think they'll come to seriously regret it in short order."


Haven't we been through this several times already?

I think evaluation of defense is more a qualitative exercise than a quantitative one. It takes a practiced eye actually watching the games to determine who's good and who's bad.

bap: Why would the Phillies even have Hunter Pence, whose under team control for 2013, on the block?

How can you answer that question without bringing up salary? It just doesn't make sense. They signed Cole Hamels to a $24M/yr in 2013, and someone had to go because of it.

If you can think of a better explanation, please share - other than "RAJ went to Stanford, so hes dumb".

"Haven't we been through this several times already?"

What site is this again?

You didn't make sense the first several times. I'm giving you another chance at clarity. Also wonder what you mean by 'short order.'

Wait a second, I thought trading Pence now got them under the luxury tax threshhold THIS year so that when they broke it NEXT year they wouldn't pay the "Break It In Consecutive Years" additional fee.

Keeping Pence this year and breaking the lux tax threshhold next year would have meant additional penalties.

Do I have that wrong?

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