Sunday chat: First look at Phillies prospect rankings

Mike Drago, Reading Phillies beat writer for the Readnig Eagle, polled two dozen major and minor league Phillies insiders to assemble his annual end-of-season list, which includes more than a few surprises. Here's your new Top 10.

1. Jesse Biddle, LHP
2. Tommy Joseph, C
3. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
4. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
5. Sebastian Valle, C
6. Trevor May, RHP
7. Adam Morgan, LHP
8. Lisalverto Bonilla, RHP
9. Ethan Martin, RHP
10. Maikel Franco, 3B

For a complete look at the Top 25, including names like Tyler Cloyd, Darin Ruf and Phillippe Aumont, along with full evaluations of the Top 10, click here.

Beerleaguer: Drago also published his own ballot, and I like his thinking. He rated Cesar Hernandez as the best player in the system and breakout third baseman Cody Asche third. In Hernandez, the Phils have a young, outstanding second baseman who can handle the stick. Asche, meanwhile, has made huge strikes, but failed to make believers out of those polled, all except Drago, who's watched the 22-year-old hit like crazy over the last few weeks. Also take note: Drago has seen Tyson Gillies for parts of three seasons and didn't include him in his Top 15.

Had Beerleaguer submitted his ballot in time (sigh - sorry, Mike), it would have read like this:

1. Jesse Biddle, LHP
2. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
3. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
4. Sebastian Valle, C
5. Tommy Joseph, C
6. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
7. Trevor May, RHP
8..Ethan Martin, RHP
9. Roman Quinn, SS
10. Cody Asche, 3B

I buy into Aumont's big-time upside. The right-hander fell to 18th in Drago's poll, but he's still only 23 and is finally settling into his future role as a late-inning reliever. Trevor May, last year's top prospect, has really struggled in his first season at Double-A. As Drago notes, he's lugging a 5.68 ERA since May 1. The organization believes his issues are mechanical. Meanwhile, I'm putting Sebastian Valle ahead of Tommy Joseph based on his 17 home runs. Joseph, who was acquired in the Hunter Pence deal and has earned raves from those in the industry, is just 21, a year younger than Valle, but seems like an overly ambitious No. 2 on the Drago poll. Roman Quinn has lots of errors and strikeouts, but he's 19 with big tools. I'm basically including Asche in the Top 10 because of Drago's huge endorsement and a big-time finish (1.301 OPS in last 10 games with four homers).

Overall, it's an improved system - simply because they have an improved outlook in two critical areas: catcher and third base.

Final note - nobody drank the Tyler Cloyd Kool Aid.

[Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[wes covington's ghost]

I like the way the gnats announcers don't feel compelled to fill up every second with mindless prattle, but find when they do have something to say they're extremely annoying.

[curt]

Schwimer's not showing any evidence of that fine education he presumably got in Charlottesville.

[GTown_Dave]

I will say this: I have enjoyed Rollins' PAs a lot more since he changed his music to the 'Check Yo Self' Message Remix.

[bay_area_phan]

Is a guy really supposed to pitch through an injury simply because the team tells him the injury doesn't exist?

[NEPP]

I would assume the medical staff would know if he were really hurt.

[curt]

bap - I'm trying to remember the last time the Phils told one of their valuable commodities he wasn't hurt when he actually was....seems like they err in the other direction. Anyway, if the guy is hurt, he reports to LV and convinces the staff there he can't throw.

[Brooklyn Phillies]

How about whenever Howard gets 2 strikes on him, he has to shorten up and try to hit one the opposite way against the shift?

[GTown_Dave]

Hey! Michael Martinez comes in as a defensive replacement & immediately blows a play! Shocking.

[bay_area_phan]

That harkened back to the days when Eric Bruntlett would replace Pat Burrell and immediately drop a fly ball.

[Jumbo Jim Nash]

Mimi-Mart, Steve Jeltz's illegitimate son.

[Luis]

Did Schwimer talk to his agent about this move he doing?

[curt]

Every time MM takes the field, and particularly the outfield, it is another indictment of this organization.

[Luis]

Man i think its going to be hard watching Howard for next few years. Im sure he'll come through in some situations for us. Once it starts getting to the point where he striking out 49% of the time....

[GTown_Dave]

***NSFW***

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQBjQs07wbw

Yeah. That pretty much sums up my feelings on the matter.

[bay_area_phan]

NEPP/curt: You've never had the experience of having a physical problem which didn't show up on any tests & which no doctor could diagnose or explain? It happens all the time. If Schwimer says he's injured, chances are he's injured. Why would he lie? Not to mention that he was pitching really well until his last 3 or 4 outings, when he suddenly became terrible. That pattern is completely consistent with a guy who is injured.

[GTown_Dave]

I like the way Charlie has been handling the 'pen of late. Not hesitating to mix 'n' match. It's a refreshing change.

[phils and nova]

mccarthy seems to be screwing up names more than ever. today he has said wilson valdez was warming up for the phillies, said flores instead of nix is in left field for the phillies and then just said rosenblum instead of rosenberg.

hopefully it's his nerves getting to him because he knows he's on the hot seat and his job is in jeopardy

[curt]

bap - OK, you have more confidence in Schwin's ability to self-diagnose than the ability of the Phillies organization. That's cool.

[Sil Campusano]

I noticed that too about Tmac screwing up the names. Was worth a chuckle.

[GTown_Dave]

phils: TMac's tits are probably obscuring his view of the scorecard.

curt: It's not an isolated incident, which leads me to give Schwimer the benefit of a doubt & wait for more information.

[alplq]

I think Schwimmer wants to be DL'ed so that he can still receive a major league salary instead of being demoted and getting a minor league salary

[GTown_Dave]

alplq: Schwimer has been sent down before, no? Why make an issue of it now?

Also, Werth 2-12 w/ 7 Ks in the series. I love to watch him fail.

[Sil Campusano]

Got yer natitude right here.

[NEPP]

That's Lindblomtastic!!!

[GTown_Dave]

Lee Wins At CBP! Lee Wins At CBP! Lee Wins At CBP!

That was a fun series. Maybe even the first really enjoyable set of the whole season.

[bay_area_phan]

curt: He's not making any diagnosis. He's saying he's in pain. Yeah, I kinda trust Schwimer to know if he's in pain more than I trust the Phillies' medical staff to know it. Call me crazy . . .

[mikethemacguy]

NEPP: I'd have put money on NEVER seeing a Lindblomtastic!

[lolwut]

helluva series. let's keep streaking.

[curt]

bap - He is making a diagnosis. He's saying he's too hurt to pitch. The Phils disagree. Neither of us knows who's right. The only question I have is whether he is dealing with it wisely.

[alplq]

GTown_Dave:

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/Schwimer-hurt-Pitcher-team-have-differin?blockID=761989&feedID=693

[GTown_Dave]

Franzke just rattled off some stats: 11.1 scoreless innings, 3 H, 13 Ks from the Phillies bullpen in this series. Amazing the difference it can make.

[GTown_Dave]

alplq: I saw that the other day. Not denying it's a possibility, just wondering why now as opposed to any other point. And I simply don't trust the Phils' medical staff. We shall see ...

[Phillies Dude]

I would never have thought that I could enjoy Phillies games in late August when the red-pinstripers are so far out of contention for the playoffs but these games have been enjoyable ... and baseball is baseball. Awesome to see the bullpen of late finally show some shutdown. And so cool to see Cliff Lee get the W at home. I'm en route home from the game today and I can tell you the crowd was totally behind Cliff Lee and the Phillies this afternoon. We still got our heart & pride. Time for a few local brews now.

[Iceman]

Right about the bullpen. This series is more evidence that the bullpen is the single biggest reason this team is where it is right now. When it performs, they can play with anybody in the NL. 5-2 against the two best teams this week. Well done.

[bay_area_phan]

If he's healthy, Schwimer surely knows that he is going to be right back on the team on 9-1. The idea that he would fake an injury for two weeks worth of pay is utterly ridiculous. Even more ridiculous is the idea that doctors have the magical ability to know better than the player himself whether he is too hurt to pitch.

[lorecore]

bap: "I've never been more certain of a Phillies loss."

Good call dumbass.

[bay_area_phan]

Iceman: I don't think there's a single poster who disputes that, if the Phillies had a better bullpen, they'd be right in the thick of the WC race right now. The issue is that, as we saw during the Ed Wade era, trying to predict which of the FA relievers would be able to come in & remedy the problem is like palm-reading.

[bay_area_phan]

lore: If I hadn't posted that, we would have lost. You should be praising me, rather than heaping insults on me.

[curt]

Um, bap, doctors tell pitchers with sore arms every day whether or not they are too hurt to pitch. Recent notable Phillie examples include Halladay, Worley, Hamels.

[GTown_Dave]

Yup. Worley's totally healthy. No problem at all w/ his pitching arm.

[lorecore]

bap: the Phils are not 108-0, so your game chat crying obviously has no correlation.

[aksmith]

Curt - Doctors are completely unable to be sure that a pitcher can pitch. They make judgement calls and are often wrong. Sometimes there is pain and there's little wrong, but if you examine 100 pitchers' shoulders and elbows, you will find pathology in 100 pitchers shoulders and elbows. Pitching is one of the most unnatural athletic movements you can do with your body. So, it becomes a judgment call.

Schwimer is a smart young man. He would not be making a big deal out of this if he thought he could pitch and stay healthy. He will appeal to the league and get a yea or nay. Hopefully, the Phillies won't hold grudge over a difference of opinion and get rid of a promising middle reliever over it. But I wouldn't put it past them.

[GTown_Dave]

"We startin' to play better in every phrase of the game."

You tell 'em, Charlie.

Also, Halladay + Lee the past two days:

204 Pitches (163 Strikes, 41 Balls)

That's 80% of Pitches for Strikes.

3 ER, 1 BB, 11 K.

[Iceman]

BAP- wasn't inferring anything by it, as far as signing FA goes. Just making an observation. The offense is not very good (especially after the trades), but it's still good enough with this pitching. I'm encouraged for next year, especially since it's a lock that at least one bat will be added.

I'm also really trying to resist being sucked in by Frandsen's play, because I realize over 162 games it will eventually even itself out. But I really like what he brings to the table. At the very least, he is a good bench piece for next year. And Kratz gives them what Coste gave them in 2007-2008. They may have stumbled into it, but their bench next year might actually be pretty decent.

[Iceman]

G-Town- nice numbers. 41 balls combined in 14 IP for our starters the last two games. That is just sick. Some serious #Natitude.

[Pblunts]

So given recent Phillies history, we should at least pay attention until the 7.5 with 17 to play mark. But still too many teams to pass when before there was one. I'm not a Chollie guy so take this in context, but I think we end up close enough to the wild card to look back on the seson and wonder about those 10+ games where our $50M closer sat on the bench during those tied road games.

[NEPP]

I'll wonder more about that streak from June 1st to July 8th where we went from 3 over .500 to 13 under .500 and our GM did absolutely nothing to help despite there being serious trade options available.

That 9-24 streak killed the season.

[gobaystars!]

Great sweep! I wouldn't bet on the Phillies making the playoffs but I'll certainly root for it.

[EastFallowfield]

What people forget about 7.5 with 17 to play: Phils took the lead within 15 games, and also had caught up in the Wild Card race against everyone else who was involved with that, but the WC didn't matter since the Mets choked away the division.

[Iceman]

Ahh yes, it all comes back to Rube not getting Youk.

Am I the only one that hopes Cholly learns a lesson from the mix-and-matching he did this series with the bullpen and continues to utilize it? La Russa gets ripped on here and in the media for it, but playing match-ups like that is the way to go when you lack a pitcher in the bullpen that can get LHB and RHB out consistently. Right now, that's a problem the Phillies have and Cholly has stumbled on to a way to combat it. It arguably won the Cards a WS last year.

[Dragon]

After watching this series, I find myself wondering how much more of a competitive and enjoyable season we would have had if Amaro had made the right bullpen moves in the off-season and during the season.

[EastFallowfield]

Nats mlb.com guy tweets:

Is there tension in the air? #Nats manager Davey Johnson was heard yelling at someone saying, "You come down and manage the team."

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Looking like Arizona is about to lose again to San Diego. That will put the Phillies 3 games behind the next team they have to jump in the wild card standings. Still a looooonnnnnggggg shot, but crazier things have happened.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

One big problem with getting back in the wild card race? Only other team in wild card hunt left on the schedule is 6 games against Atlanta.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

One positive thing about our remaining schedule: 20 games left against the worst teams in the league, Mets, Marlins, Astros, Rockies.

Other 15 are against Atlanta, Washington and Cincinnati.

[GTown_Dave]

Iceman: I'm not sure whether this will upset you or I more, but I agree w/ you completely RE: bullpen management.

[Iceman]

When they took the first two games in the most recent Fish series, I said if they finished the sweep and took 3 of 4 against Milwaukee I'd be all-in on a comeback. Then the bullpen proceeded to implode the next two games and dashed that pretty quickly.

If they had actually done that, I'd be fully in the tank right now. Difference between 7.5 and 9.5 seems enormous, because if you figure they cut it to 5.5 by Sept 1, you've really got something.

But I'm not kidding myself. Because of the many bullpen implosions, they practically have to win out at this point. Even my rose-colored glasses aren't that rosy. I can definitely see .500 getting reached, though, which is an accomplishment in itself considering where they were and who they lost at the deadline (including Ruiz).

[Bob]

Who says 9.5 and having to jump 4 teams is impossible? Just gotta gain 2 games a week. 5 weeks left...makes up 10 games.

PLAYOFFS...BOOM!!

*and then I woke up

But it is great to see the character and seeing some good quality baseball. That was my expectation of this team and they haven't disappointed.

Let's keep it going!

[Bob]

*That was my expectation for this team...in the 2nd half

[DPatrone]

Nice to see them get the sweep this weekend. Shows character.

[bay_area_phan]

lorecore: Get a sense of humor, man.

[Conway Twitty]

Kratz' OPS has plummetted all the way down to .998. Time to bat him ninth, or see what the new guy has.

[MG]

Few thoughts from the game today:

- Lee today through first 5 IP was as good as he has been all year. Locating his fastball on the outside corner with pinpoint contrl & had a really good curve.

After Lee sat for a while in the bottom of the 5th inning, he wasn't the same pitcher the rest of the game. Wasn't working as quickly nor did he have the same fastball command either.

Zimmerman flyball sounded like it was gone off the bat. Other days with a little more help from the wind and it likely was.

In the 7th, Lee was over all the place and frankly very fortunate to get out of that inning only allowing a run.

- Werth is really out of shape. He was doubled over with his hands on his knees really sucking eggs at 2nd in the 7th. Kind of embarrassing.

If Werth had also been hustling too like he should have been on the ball LaRoche hit in the 7th, he easily scores to make it a 4-1 game. Moore would have doubled up next to make it 4-2 and put Lee on the ropes.

For a guy who is supposed to be a leader on that team, Werth certainly didn't lead by example today. Contrast that with Harper who gives you everything he has on every play.

- Zimmerman was pitching a solid game until the bottom of the 5th too. Just had trouble locating the strike zone & made a real mistake in giving JRoll a low fastball.

JRoll really struggles with belt-high fastballs but instead got 94-MPH fastball that was about just above the knees that he tagged 3-1. If that fastball had been up a bit, I bet JRoll missed it/fouled it off or popped it up.

- Lindblom must have ate his Wheaties today or something. Came out confident, working quickly, and just mowing hitters down with his fastball.

- Harper was playing really shallow on Lee and it cost him as that ball got over his head today for the Phils first run. Doubt he makes that mistake again.

[MG]

Nix hit a line drive HR on a slider that Gorzelanny hung. Also had a solid defensive day in RF making a nice grab.

If Nix is going to be useful to this team, he has to start. 2-14 as a PH this year and has horrendous numbers off the bench in his career. Miscast as a bench player. Either needs to start vs RHP especially against guys who don't throw especially hard.

Phils have a tough call on him and Schierholtz. Schierholtz is probably the slightly better overall player. Schierholtz a bit better defensively, has more speed, isn't completely inadequate vs LHP, and is probably a slightly better PH option. Basically a better bench player than Nix

Nix though is the better platoon player because he gives you more power & production vs RHP. If the primary role for Nix/Schierholtz is going to be as a bench player, Schierholtz is probably the slightly better option. If they want a platoon player who is going to start vs RHP, the better option is Nix.

Either way the Phils have to decide on which they want to keep and which guy they trade/non-tender.

[MG]

Phils most surprising stat of the year hands down so far:

Pierre has 32 SB/5 CS (87%) which is easy a career best % SB.

2nd in NL only trailing Bourn with 36. 4th in MLB trailing Trout with 41, R. Davis with 39 and Bourn with 36. If Pierre was playing more regularly, he would give Bourn a run for his money at the NL Stolen Bases title.

Phils have 93 SB now (4th in NL) and have the biggest success rate in MLB (83%).

[krukker]

MG: Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but why can't they keep both Nix and Schierholtz? Platoon Nix/Mayberry in LF, Brown in RF, and sign someone like Vic/Bourn/Pagan in CF. Schierholtz is fine as a 4th OF.

Is your statement implying that you would you rather dump two of Nix, Mayberry, and Schierholtz and sign two full-time OFs to play with Brown? Just trying to understand your position.

[Meyer]

Dog's out in Reading. Ruf hit #35. RUF, RUF, RUF, RUF-RUF.

[The Truth Injection]

Has anyone ever used the phrase "sucking eggs" to describe someone who is winded?

Is that some weird colloquialism that I am not aware of?

[Conway Twitty]

If they sign Bourn, they almost have to pick up another RH OF. If brown flops, 1 of Nix/Holtzy would be playing against LHP. Of course, if Cholly is still here, MM would be his RH OF.

[NEPP]

So Ruf needs 2 HRs in the final 5 games to tie Howard's record...should be close.

[Meyer]

Ruf needs about 4 HRs, 5 doubles, 3 singles and 10 HBP or BB's to win the Triple Crown. The MVP is a given. K.Law is statistically a jack8ss.

[bay_area_phan]

The phrase "suck eggs" is from "The Adventures of Tom Sawyer." I believe, but am not certain, that it means something equivalent to "get lost." The phrase MG was looking for was "sucking wind."

[The Truth Injection]

-Harper was playing shallow on the Lee double and took a terrible route going back to it.

As has been said- it is silly to get sucked into the Phillies possibilities here as 9.5 is a ton of games to make up. However, if they can play well against the Braves and Reds after this Mets series they have a chance to make a run of it.

In those 13 games (September 7th-19th) we have:

Philadelphia: 3 vs Colorado, 3 vs Miami, 4 vs Houston, 3 vs Mets

Arizona: 6 vs San Diego (4-7 on the year), 2 vs Dodgers, 3 vs San Francisco

Pittsburgh: 7 vs Cubs, 3 vs Miwaukee, 3 vs Reds

LA Dodgers: 3 vs San Francisco, 2 vs Arizona, 4 vs St. Louis, 3 vs Washington

St. Louis: 3 vs Milwaukee, 3 vs San Diego, 4 vs Dodgers, 3 vs Houston

Atlanta: 3 vs Mets, 3 vs Marlins, 3 vs Milwaukee, 3 vs Washington

There is a chance to gain ground on some teams there. Need to probably go 7-2 over the next 9 though. Have to start by sweeping the Mets. No excuse not to

[Bubba]

The BL conversation has shifted , over the last week or so, from making funeral arrangements for this season(i.e. draft picks if we tank the remaining games, trade everybody, fire everybody ) to checking the body one more time for a pulse.

We aren't in a pennant race just yet, but there's still a little life left in '12. Might as well hang around and see what happens.

[EDGE]

JRoll with another HR. I read an article earlier where they pointed out something insane. Hes part of 98 MLBers that have more pop-outs this season than Joey Votto's career total.

[The Hook]

Don't pull that life support plug yet. Still have a pulse..........
I think what made everyone so down was a) crappy d and o that was happening. And b) the glaring hole in bullpen and rube did nothing till deadline and got a little life in team. Just hope they cont playing well and some strange things can happen. Hope dom gets many games to and gets knee fixed after season. That could be a major reason why power numbers are down. Not sure which leg. If power leg then the knee explains it all

[Bubba]

hook-
Agree, the trades make Dom all the more a necessary piece.

[HammRadio]

Harper's positioning made the Lee Double happen... but in the previous at bat he played Shallow enough to be there for Kratz's fly... Mentioned to my Dad about Harper's positioning, saying "Well I guess Lee is just going to have to hit it over his head"

thought it was interesting that they double-switched him.

re: Laroche's "double"... Werth was tagging because it looked like a pop-fly... when the ball hit the rail... Werth thoguht it was a homer and went into a trot... which is what Laroche thought and continued his trot oblivious that the ump called it in play... once there was confusion... Werth held his ground because getting into a run down at that point could have caused both runners getting doubled up...

[Dragon]

Have enjoyed watching the team since Howard and Utley came back. That being said, at minimum, we need an 8th-inning stud pitcher and an RBI outfielder to get back into the postseason next year.

[Bob]

Have to confess, I really enjoy watching Bryce Harper play. As MG says, he goes all out and gives you 100% on every play. Reminds me a bit of Utley when he was on the way up.

I've seen him make a few mental errors this year, but for whatever reason, I get the sense he learns from them and won't repeat them much. A couple of times he's actually hustled his way out of the best play he might have been able to make.

Have no clue what he's like with teammates, but when he gets a year or two under his belt, if his head stays screwed on right, he could lead that team for years.

[jbird]

Interesting post about Cody Asche's historically to mlb. I think more insightful would have been a comparison to milb, but you take what you can get.

http://phuturephillies.com/2012/08/26/box-score-recap-8-26-2012/

[R.Billingsly]

One positive thing about our remaining schedule: 20 games left against the worst teams in the league, Mets, Marlins, Astros, Rockies.

Other 15 are against Atlanta, Washington and Cincinnati.

I came to BL this morning to post something very similar. As much of a long shot as it is, they can really make up ground when play those 20 games. And as Pblunts pointed out: "...we should at least pay attention until the 7.5 with 17 to play mark."

Stranger things have happened.

[jbird]

Also, Brody Colvin is terrible. The 2009 draft was a disaster. Singleton was the best thing to come out of it, and that's pretty good, but Amaro used him to overpay for Pence. The best thing left might be Dugan, and I'd be surprised if he ever really made it as anything more than a 4th outfielder. Colvin was supposed to be the jewel of that draft for us, and he's been consistently bad for 2 years now.

[NEPP]

It gets worse when you hear stories of attitude problems and that he has conditioning issues including coming into camp massively out of shape last year.

(on Colvin that is) Some guys want it and some dont regardless of raw talent.

[awh]

NEPP, Andrew Carpenter ws another one who used to come into camp 'overweight', IIRC.

Any wonder he's been a AAA/AAAA talent?

[MG]

9.5 GB in the WC? No chance. If they were sitting where Arizona is (6.5 GB), they might have a chance. Just too many good teams to climb over in such a short time span including the Braves, Cards, and Dodgers.

[J. Weitzel]

I wish we could see Mike Trout more. He's unreal.

[Iceman]

"Just too many good teams to climb over in such a short time span including the Braves, Cards, and Dodgers."

They don't need to climb over the Braves.

I wouldn't say they have no chance (there's always a chance), but getting your hopes up at this point is probably pretty foolish. They basically have to win out.

[awh]

Dragon, what the Phillies need most, with an aging core, is HEALTH.

They're 16-10 in their last 26 games (99 -100 win pace), and that's without Vic and Pence.

We all know what the problems were/are:

Howard out
Utley out

Bullpen injuries
Bullpen failures

Vic didn't step it up
Pence didn't step it up
Rollins didn't step it up
RFD proved he's a bench player

Nix got hurt right when they needed him the most

Rest of the bench played like....they were bench players

[awh]

Oh, and SP injuries - Halladay, Lee, Worley - as well

[lorecore]

All the Phillies had to do was tread water in the first half, like many people said. But instead they played one of the worst months the franchise has ever had in decades.

[Fatalotti]

The Phillies have to climb over the D-Backs, Pirates, Dodgers, and one of The Cardinals or the Braves. That's 4 teams that we need to pass.

I could see us ending up with a better record than the Pirates and D-Backs this year, just because I still think the Pirates are playing way over their heads and we aren't far back of the D-Backs. But passing the Dodgers who just bolstered their lineup with AGon, and passing the Cardinals, who have a 10 game lead in the loss column and are STILL 6 games below their Pyth W/L is just not going to happen.

And ATL is 12 games ahead of us in the loss column. Even if we swept our final 6 games against them, we'd still have to make up 6 games in about 25, which is still very improbably (if not completely crazy), but this what we have to do AFTER sweeping them.

Not our year, unfortunately.

[awh]

Iceman, the teams ahead of them in the wildcard standings which they have the best 'chance' of catching are the Cards, Dodgers and Pirates (though the latter two are technically 'out of it' at the moment).

The Cards are on an 89 win pace
The Dodgers are on an 87 win pace
The Pirates are on an 87 win pace.

Ass-u-ming they all play out at their current pace, to best the Cards and get the 5th WC the Phillies would need to go 29 - 5 [.853], and go 28 - 6 [.824] to tie.

How many times in MLB history has a team finished the season like that?

[Sil Campusano]

My realistic hopes for the remainder of the year: it'd be nice to get back to .500 ball. Wherever we go above that is gravy. As has been mentioned here already, it's nice to watch good baseball again at least.

[awh]

lorecore, see my post above about certain players crapping the bed, and the bullpen injuries.

It's possible the Phillies could have weathered the storm with Utley and Howard out, but things would have had to go almost perfectly with the rest of the lineup. Such as:

Pence/Vic stepping up to at least their career averages (they didn't).

Bullpen staying healthy and performing

RFD/Nix platoon working - Bench (Nix) staying healthy

Polly being at least a shadow of his former self (he wasn't)

JRoll putting up better than a .602 OPS in April/May (.782 since June 1)

The SP staying healthy all year

NONE of the above happened - it was really a perfect storm - and the Braves and Nats took advantage.

So, looking ahead to next season, they got rid of a bad contract who's crapping the bed in SanFran, they got something for Vic (who may be back - at the right price), Howard should be healthier and Utley has proven he can still play at an elite level, Worley should be better after his elbow gets cleaned out, Blanton's money is gone, Lee seems to have turned it around (maybe the early season injury lingered?), Frandsen looks to be a decent bench player, and maybe some of the bullpen pieces will step up (Aumont, De Fratus, Schwimer, Stutes?, and the enigmatic Bastardo).

The downside:

This organization continues to cast a shadow on the fans view of it's judgement:

They still think Michael Martinez [.183/.242/.271 lifetime] is a major league baseball player.

[The-Ax]

On the Schwimer and I guess Worley injury issues. How do you put so much faith in the Phils' medical staff when time and time again it seems like a bad call is made, whether it's Chase's knees, Ryan's infection, Schwimer's arm, and letting Worley pitch with bone chips when a couple years ago Hamels talked about how much of a difference it makes on command? I know no one is perfect, but c'mon....

[me.yahoo.com/a/DF5gaC4WtO6IbAzAGRsvKXKscjC2IFM-]

Tommy Joseph looks like a nice defensive catcher but I have not been impressed at all with his offense. I'm hoping Chooch and Kratz stay around for the next 4-5 years. The people who picked these lists have really missed the boat on Cody Asche.. This kid ia a stone cold 300 hitter and will be our starting 3B in another year if Amaro doesn't foul it up. He's risen up the ladder from nowhere and maybe thats why the lists are slow to recognize him. Adam Morgan is another kid to look out for. This kid threw a 1 hitter in Trenton in a game I recently went to. He has a beautiful change up, a good fastball and good control. he's gonna make it here too.