Sunday chat: First look at Phillies prospect rankings

Mike Drago, Reading Phillies beat writer for the Readnig Eagle, polled two dozen major and minor league Phillies insiders to assemble his annual end-of-season list, which includes more than a few surprises. Here's your new Top 10.

1. Jesse Biddle, LHP
2. Tommy Joseph, C
3. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
4. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
5. Sebastian Valle, C
6. Trevor May, RHP
7. Adam Morgan, LHP
8. Lisalverto Bonilla, RHP
9. Ethan Martin, RHP
10. Maikel Franco, 3B

For a complete look at the Top 25, including names like Tyler Cloyd, Darin Ruf and Phillippe Aumont, along with full evaluations of the Top 10, click here.

Beerleaguer: Drago also published his own ballot, and I like his thinking. He rated Cesar Hernandez as the best player in the system and breakout third baseman Cody Asche third. In Hernandez, the Phils have a young, outstanding second baseman who can handle the stick. Asche, meanwhile, has made huge strikes, but failed to make believers out of those polled, all except Drago, who's watched the 22-year-old hit like crazy over the last few weeks. Also take note: Drago has seen Tyson Gillies for parts of three seasons and didn't include him in his Top 15.

Had Beerleaguer submitted his ballot in time (sigh - sorry, Mike), it would have read like this:

1. Jesse Biddle, LHP
2. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
3. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
4. Sebastian Valle, C
5. Tommy Joseph, C
6. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
7. Trevor May, RHP
8..Ethan Martin, RHP
9. Roman Quinn, SS
10. Cody Asche, 3B

I buy into Aumont's big-time upside. The right-hander fell to 18th in Drago's poll, but he's still only 23 and is finally settling into his future role as a late-inning reliever. Trevor May, last year's top prospect, has really struggled in his first season at Double-A. As Drago notes, he's lugging a 5.68 ERA since May 1. The organization believes his issues are mechanical. Meanwhile, I'm putting Sebastian Valle ahead of Tommy Joseph based on his 17 home runs. Joseph, who was acquired in the Hunter Pence deal and has earned raves from those in the industry, is just 21, a year younger than Valle, but seems like an overly ambitious No. 2 on the Drago poll. Roman Quinn has lots of errors and strikeouts, but he's 19 with big tools. I'm basically including Asche in the Top 10 because of Drago's huge endorsement and a big-time finish (1.301 OPS in last 10 games with four homers).

Overall, it's an improved system - simply because they have an improved outlook in two critical areas: catcher and third base.

Final note - nobody drank the Tyler Cloyd Kool Aid.

[Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[lorecore]

I see the top 10 and hear others mentioned but where is the actual top 25?

[J. Weitzel]

Click the links.

[lorecore]

ah, was on mobile device earlier, Drago's page cuts off links.

[lorecore]

Joseph was almost universally ranked lower than Valle coming into this year. I've read that Joseph has made big strides in defense, so I guess thats why he jumped Valle?

If you ask me, they had pretty similar seasons, only that Valle has cashed in better on his power potential with 17 HR this year. I know his k/bb is embarassing, but Joseph's isn't really a strength. I do not agree with Joseph jumping him already.

[The Hook]

Look for a catcher and Colvin and another pc to be Packaged some where. I think rube learned a valuable lesson on the pence trade about value. Look for a more shrewd approach making deals this offseason. Def going to be exciting to follow to see what move is going to be made. And team is going to go over cap that's a givin. And with what La has done and how Washington is looking for future. Something is going to be done.

[Jr.]

#22 Tocci,not a bad rating for a toolsy guy who hasn't played a game yet in the GCL.

[Chutley]

I think Mitchell Walding belongs on the lower end of the top 25, maybe right behind Larry Greene at #22.

[lorecore]

No way that having two catchers move up the chain has created a "surplus" to make deals. These guys are plenty young and come with plenty of holes in their game, trading one away because the other will make it would be foolish. Ruiz will be a FA after next season and will be 34, Phils will certainly want an in-house replacement as an option before having to negotiate with his agent. They will need both in the system to have a good chance of that happening by 2014.

[denny b.]

Nobody has ever "bought the Tyler Cloyd Kool-Aid". He's been doubted since college.

All he has done is win games and put up solid numbers. At each level he's pitched at. I just wish he was more "toolsy". Then he'd be a legit pitcher.

[lorecore]

I would have Austin Wright up near 10. His numbers dont jump off page like a 22yr old in A+ ball, but he's got a great fastball-curveball combo from a big frame from the left side that puts him among the best potential starters in the system.

[CN]

Jr.: Tocci's played in 38 GCL games. .278/.330/.299 line.

[lorecore]

Tyler Cloyd could be a good 4th/5th starter in the bigs IF he pans outs. Why the hell would people rank a back end of rotation player high on a prospect list?

Prospect lists do not try and predict who has the best chance of getting called up, they try to show who has the best chance to become an allstar one day.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Cloyd is a 25-year old RH in AAA with a 5.9 K/9. Hard to get too excited despite the win/loss record and ERA. The reason the K/9 matters is because missing bats Is one of the most important skills for a pitcher. Cloyd's BB/9 is also higher at AAA than it's been anywhere else.

So at the highest level he's pitched, he's striking out less and walking more, all while being old for the level. Not a promising combination.

[bay_area_phan]

Why Sebastian Valle and Jiwan James continue to get so much love on prospect lists is utterly confounding to me. Also, doesn't Kelly Duggan belong on that list somewhere?

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

bay_area_phan: What's wrong with Valle? He's only 21 at AAA, he's flashed good power potential and his defense is adequate. Sure, I'd like him to take more walks, but a year ago, he was still in high A ball.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

But I'm with you on Jiwan James. That's never gonna happen.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

I suppose Dugan could have been down the list, But as just another corner OF who's had a solid season at age 21 at high A ball, I guess I'd like to see something at AA next year before I get too excited.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Rollins, Pierre, Utley, Howard, Mayberry, Nix, Frandsen, Kratz, Lee

Brown rests his knee another day and with Monday's off day, that will be three days off. Hopefully that means he's back ready to go on Tuesday.

[lorecore]

DOM has sore knee? missed that.

[bay_area_phan]

KAS:

Re Valle: I just can't get the least bit excited about a low average hitter with only 13 walks -- particularly one whose defense is good, but not great. He has future backup catcher written all over him.

Re Dugan: He's actually only at low A but, even though it seems like he has been around forever, he's still only 22. And a .300 average with lots of walks and an .858 OPS is a little more than just a "solid" season. I'm not asking anyone to get excited about him. I'm just saying, he ought to be somewhere in the top 25.

I don't know who exactly was being polled, but there does seem to be some heavy bias toward guys in the high levels of the minors. It kind of makes sense, since those guys have a much better chance to make the show than guys like Dugan or Franco or Quinn or Dylan Cozens. Still, I suspect that when the national prospect services come out with their 2013 rankings, Dugan will be somewhere in the top 20, Quinn will be in the top 10, and a guy like Maikel Franco will be higher than guys like Cesar Hernandez, Cody Asche, and Lisalverto Bonilla.

[The Hook]

Catching is def a position u always need more of. Just that with the rube is it wouldnt shock me. I like the switching Joseph to first and catching btwn starts. Hopefully ruf takes LF serious and works on it.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

bay_area_phan: I think Valle is a solid catching prospect. Frankly, catchers get graded on a different scale because of scarcity.. I like Joseph much better and wouldn't be disappointed if Valle becomes a chip to improve the big league club elsewhere.

You're right, Dugan is still only in low A which makes him a little less impressive in my eyes. Will he skip high A next year and go to Reading at age 22? I have a bias to prospects who are young for their level.

[bay_area_phan]

Actually, I stand corrected. The link didn't work for me and I was just going by Drago's article, which made no mention of Dugan. But there he is at 24. Still think he should be a bit higher than guys like James, Leandro Castro, and probably some of the pitchers.

[bay_area_phan]

KAS: To be honest, I like Cameron Rupp at least as much as I like Valle, if not more. Yeah, yeah, he's older & at a lower level of the minors. But the reason Valle's in AAA & Rupp's at high A is largely because of seniority in the Phillies' system. When it comes to actual numbers, Rupp has Valle badly beaten in every category except homeruns. And, from what I understand, his defense is also considered strong. My memory is that he was drafted more for his defense than for his bat.

[denny b.]

"So at the highest level he's pitched, he's striking out less and walking more, all while being old for the level. Not a promising combination."

He has also completely dominated at AA and AAA in 2012.

Doesn't actual production mean anything? Or knowing how to pitch?

He's done it at a startlingly high level all year long. Almost every start out.

[Jumbo Jim Nash]

Tyler Cloyd, the new Joe Roa.

[ODB]

Was Kratz injured when Dane Sardinha was called up to start a dozen or so games early last season?

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

bay_area_phan: I'll confess, I know little of Rupp. In looking at the numbers, the concern is whether the improvement with the bat is because he's getting better or because he's 23 years old in A ball. Valle had pretty much the same OPS In Lakewood, but did it 3 years younger at age 19.

I'd love it for Rupp to be a legit prospect. Would give Phils three of them and make it even easier to deal Valle!

Of course, the real catching prospect was D'arnaud! He's slugging .595 at AAA (PCL caveat, of course).

[GTown_Dave]

I'm not drinking the Aumont Kool Aid.

[CousinIT]

Well should be an exciting game with a few longballs thrown in - hopefully not all of them are by the Nats.

[CousinIT]

Interesting that once we trade a guy or get another prospect in (Joseph), the 'other' guy all of a sudden is a bum (Valle). The scouts all love Joseph but he's not putting up the numbers a AA yet. Ultimately he'll have to regardless of his 'body type'

[bay_area_phan]

I'll probably miss most of this game but, with Lee pitching at home, Jordan Zimmerman on the mound for the Nats, the Nats being a much better team than we are, and the Phillies having swept exactly one series in the entire 2012 season, I've never been more certain of a Phillies loss.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Don't see anyone calling Valle a bum. Just that many prefer Joseph.

[GTown_Dave]

Nice stretch by Howard.

[GTown_Dave]

Jimmy Rollins Backpack Day. Nice promotion. Unfortunately the item insists on being worn every day, but will only carry your stuff when it feels like it.

[nonamePHame]

I was at the game yesterday....chase looks more like chase (of '10 and before) everyday. maybe there is hope for 2013?

[bay_area_phan]

Lee looks good so far. This is a sure loss.

[lorecore]

Tmac on TV: "you really can judge how good a pitcher is by looking at their record against teams above .500"

Yeah, gotta really focus in on that win/loss stat to go next level. What a moron.

[GTown_Dave]

Perhaps my perspective has been seriously skewed by how truly awful the other 3B options (Polanco, Wigginton, Martinez, Fontenot) have been, but I've enjoyed watching Frandsen play.

[GTown_Dave]

Nix, on the other hand ... Nix is exactly the loser I expected him to be. Never trust a man who can't even spell his own first name properly.

[Jack]

I like JW's list more than the consensus poll list, with the exception that I don't see why Ethan Martin would be ranked above Adam Morgan. That seems like really wishful thinking based on four good starts from Martin when he first got here.

[Jr.]

Jr.: Tocci's played in 38 GCL games. .278/.330/.299 line.
Thanks,where did you find his stats? I couldn't find anything but 0's.

[wes covington's ghost]

No Name- I agree, but if you read the game thread from last night you'd swear Chris Christie was playing 2nd for the Phils.

[GTown_Dave]

Lee must have broken 4-5 bats already. Has some good stuff early on.

[gobaystars!]

Lee looks good. Zimmerman looks good.
Could be a quick game. Nobody is putting good wood on anything today.

[gobaystars!]

Good AB by the Phanatic, I mean Juan Pierre.

[Buy sell]

Doesn't Ruf and Cloyd deserve a call up to the bigs in September?

Raj said he has never seen TC pitch, so he couldnt really comment on his skills, besides his rotation is set and he doesn't need another rotation pitcher.

Is he for real?

[lorecore]

Mayberry trying to put up another late season surge?

.333/.341/.571 in his last 10 starts. He was .399/.354/.576 after being recalled in 2011.

[lorecore]

*.299

[gobaystars!]

Do that Nats do more quick pitches than most teams or have I just noticed it more?

[gobaystars!]

Werth almost gave us one there.

[lorecore]

Ump giving Zimmerman everything up, could be long day for phils.

[nonamePHame]

what a grab by Werth. Holy crap.

[bay_area_phan]

Watching this game is like watching a move I've already seen 20 times. And just as I know that the Wicked Witch of the West will get melted by water at the end of "The Wizard of Oz," so too do I know that Lee will pitch brilliantly for 5 or 6 innings, the Phillies will do absolutely nothing on offense (or maybe score a run or two at most), and Lee will implode completely around the 6th or 7th inning.

[gobaystars!]

Yeah Zim is getting a very high and slightly wide breaking ball called a ton.

[GTown_Dave]

Werth isn't a ballplayer, he's a carnival sideshow. I do not miss his drunken stumbling & bumbling in the OF.

[Ignatius]

gtown, If Werth is a carnival act, where does that put old Hunter Pence?

[GTown_Dave]

He also can't hit a hittable fastball to save his life.

[nonamePHame]

another K on JWerth. CLEE looks mighty good. Maybe get some runs? haha, maybe.

[GTown_Dave]

Ignatius: In the field they're about the same. Bad reads, decent arms. I still think Pence is a better hitter than people give him credit for.

[GTown_Dave]

I can't wait to have to watch another season of Nix. Love those 2-year r00b Specials.

[NEPP]

Pence has a .545 OPS since the trade.

[gobaystars!]

we've got a rally brewing!!

[bay_area_phan]

GTown: I think Nix will be traded. Having both Schierholtz & Nix on your bench is like having two cheese graters in your kitchen cabinet. Having one is mildly useful, though far from essential. Having two of them is just superfluous. Nix is actually better than Schierholtz but RAJ will hang onto Schierholtz in a stubborn attempt to squeeze as much value as possible out of the idiotic Pence trade.

[Kutztown Fan]

SSS alert - I've seen Valle play several times this year. Meh.

[Mick O]

Bryce Harper flashing the Range Factor, eh Larry?

[lorecore]

ha, leave it to Lee to give himself a lead.

[lolwut]

CLIFTON!!!!

[NEPP]

Talk about grooving a fastball there...ouch.

[Muuurgh]

Nice follow-up there, Jimmy!!

[bay_area_phan]

Nice. Now Lee has a lead to blow.

[Lance Phillips]

This is looking PRETTY good! If Cliff can keep this going, I think everybody in the house is rooting harder than at any game this year for Lee to get this win.

[can_of_corn]

Go Jimmy! I can't believe it is a beautiful day outside and I'm here inside watching the game. Even worse, I can't believe that I still hold out an ounce of hope that we'll continue to win as other teams go by the wayside.

But regardless of the season outcome, this is fun.

[Lance Phillips]

B.A.P. Your cynical ,negativity grows oh so tiresome. Why not find the Golden Gate Bridge and practice cannonballs?

[GTown_Dave]

This guy is taking giving up a hit to the opposing pitcher pretty hard.

[lorecore]

Love when Jroll turns on the ball from the left side, pretty stroke.

[bay_area_phan]

"Why not find the Golden Gate Bridge and practice cannonballs?"

Because I root for a sh*tty baseball team? Seems a bit excessive.

[Mick O]

Sweep the leg, Juannie!

[nonamePHame]

what is their record since the break? My count has it at 23-17. That over a full year makes the playoffs. I was looking at the free agent class for this offseason, and it is brutal. If the phils can't pull off a trade, I say sign Pierre and stand pat until the deadline next year.

[NEPP]

Stop taking the 1st pitch, RFD.

[GTown_Dave]

Dammit, Howard.

[bay_area_phan]

It begins.

[GTown_Dave]

b_a_p: I see r00b hanging on to Nix rather than Schierholtz simply because Nix is already signed. Plus, you know, he can play CF.

[Andy Reid]

Missed A-gap coverage there, Ryan. We've got to do better.

[bay_area_phan]

Nix with a homerun against a LHP? Maybe this is the Phillies' day, after all. And, hopefully, that will forever put to rest Cholly's belief that Mini-Mart is a better option against LHP than Nix.

[GTown_Dave]

Nix finally passes Martinez, Polanco, Schneider & Luna on the Phillies season HR list; ties Freddy Galvis w/ 3 HR.

[curt]

Not to take anything away from Nix, but what was Flores thinking calling for 3 identical sliders?

[gobaystars!]

Great game. Could sweep Nats!
But my god the Phillies TV operation has turned truly awful in the last few years.

[GTown_Dave]

Dammit, Cliff.

[Jr.]

Nats announcers say Phils want to put Polly on DL but he refuses.Didn't know he had to give Permission.

[GTown_Dave]

Werth = Assclown.

[curt]

Werth with a Werthian faux pas.

[bay_area_phan]

That was a pretty confusing set of events for someone watching on Gameday.

[GTown_Dave]

Speaking of injury disagreements:

Jeff Schuler: "For those wondering, no sign of Michael Schwimer here before the game."

In case you're unaware, Schwimer is (apparently) refusing to report to LHV because he insists he is injured, while the Phillies have deemed him fit to pitch.

[gobaystars!]

great call.
Lee needs to keep it together. It feels worse than it is.

[bay_area_phan]

If Lee gives up one more hit, and is still in the game to face the next better, whatever ensues is all on Cholly.

[NEPP]

Grow up, Schwim.

Total a$$hat move.

[GTown_Dave]

b_a_p: Charlie thinks it's against the rules to pull a SP in the middle of an inning unless & until he has already surrendered a lead.

[Mick O]

I wouldn't put it past the Phils staff to have mixed up the records for Schwimmer and Polanco.

Ok we know one of you is injured, stop confusing us!

[GTown_Dave]

NEPP: Normally, I'd agree ... but should anyone trust the Phillies on medical issues? Even Chooch has flat defied their advice due to a disagreement this season, & he's as affable a guy as there is.