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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

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"All right, Homer, I'm not gonna lie to you. There's a good chance you can beat Tatum. But you gotta visualize how you're gonna win, okay?"

~Homer thinks~

A congenital heart defect has apparently felled Tatum moments before he could step into the ring!

Not sure how much was made of Kendrick's outing last night on here. I'm too lazy to backread a ton. I love how he has his praises sung after a night like last night. Those starts come around less often than a unicorn. He's not a starter.

NEPP, you said you would like to see Jimmy moved down to the 6-hole next year if they can get a CF that can leadoff. Are you saying you want to go all in on Bourn?

NEPP, interesting coincidence: Manuel also makes his office in the women's bathroom.

I'd like Bourn...at a reasonable price. Barring him, I'd prefer Upton (who is still a better leadoff option than Jimmy as his OBP skills a bit higher at this point hopefully).

Neither is a true leadoff guy though.

Neither is a true leadoff guy though.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, August 15, 2012 at 09:44 AM

Wait, Bourn isn't a true leadoff guy?

How many true leadoff hitters are there in general in the league? I'd have to do some serious digging for OBP of leadoff hitters throughout the league.

In general how valuable is the leadoff spot anyway? How often does the #1 spot in the order really leadoff outside of the 1st inning? I kind of feel like the leadoff hitter is going the way of the closer for me. It's an overblown title. I just want men that can get on no matter where they hit.

Sorry, poor english on my part. Neither Upton or Rollins is a true leadoff guy.

Bourn is most definitely a great leadoff hitter...probably one of the best in all of baseball right now.

FWIW, if Brown were to continue hitting at his current level, he'd be an excellent leadoff hitter with that .370 OBP.

all i want is to be 5 back by sept 1. then we're off to the races. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Here's the thing about the playoff standings: Pittsburgh, the Giants and the Dodgers are likely playing over their heads, and as of right now, I'd venture that the Phillies are actually better than those 3 teams going forward. But, the Cardinals have been playing under their heads (if that's even a phrase), and I don't believe that the Phillies are as good as them going forward. So, we basically have to hope for 4 teams to come back to Earth (not likely, especially since three are in the same division, so one is going to get pushed to the top if the other two falter), and hope that the Cardinals, who are already 6 under their Pyth W/L, drop even further under their Pyth W/L.

It's just way too unlikely for the pieces to fall right for the Phils. Right now, they basically need an OAK circa 2002 run to really be back in it.

How bad with the Rube bashing be if we have a huge 2nd half surge but fall just short?

I foresee about 1.2 million comments along the lines of "if only he had planned better for Utley & Howard missing the 1st half!!!" and "Why didn't he get a better bullpen!!!"

etc etc. It will be a pretty ugly winter on BL if we end up with a win total north of 85 but fall short of that 2nd wild card.

NEPP: What I can't wait for is when we finish 3 games out of a playoff spot, and posters talk about how if we'd only held onto Victorino, Pence, and Blanton, we would have made the playoffs.

Joe, the leadoff hitter gets the most PA of anyone on the team. If you get to the plate the most, doesn't it stand to reason that a guy with a high OBP should be in that spot?

Okay, the wild card seems unlikely. But I'm still pulling for something miraculous. What if they can just keep this streak going for a little bit, say, sweep MIA and MIL and take 3/4 from the Reds.

With a couple small skids from whoever has the 2nd wildcard spot, then they just have to go back to playing .650 ball, like they have been since the trade deadline.

I'm really just looking forward to an afternoon of watching Roy Halladay pitch. Makes any day better.

From 2004-2008, Rollins was actually a pretty elite leadoff hitter. Sure, his OBP wasn't elite (.342) in those years but his speed and power more than made up for that minor deficiency. He had a .468 SLG for those 5 seasons and averaged 39 SB a year with 40 2B, 12 3B, and 18 HRs per year.

He was a really really good player then.

I won't call Ruben out on the carpet if they fall just short because honestly Victorino, Pence and Blanton weren't getting the job done. They were underperforming. They are part of the reason the team is in the hole they are currently in. They shouldn't be let off the hook for their poor performance and there was no indication from any of them that they'd right themselves. Pence is OPSing .515 since joining San Fran. And so far Victorino is producing at the same level he was when he was here before the deal. Yes, small sample size.

***I'm really just looking forward to an afternoon of watching Roy Halladay pitch. Makes any day better. ***

In typical 2012 Phillies fashion, I assume that since KK won unexpectedly last night that Doc will basically sh!t the bed this afternoon to balance everything out.

True Fat, the guy seeing the bulk of ABs should be getting on base the most. Tremendous brain fart.

Jack, especially when it appears the Doc of old has returned.

I'm actually happy we got rid of Pence because I hated to watch him play and it gives Brown a real shot to prove himself.

I am too NEPP. Pence was an absolute disaster in the field and he added to the madness that was this lost season. I feel like I've completed a 12-step program not having to watch him anymore.

One of the few real good leadoff hitters in baseball is Jose Reyes.

Of course, the Marlins being the Marlins, they hit him third instead of leadoff.

Quietly, Doc has gotten back to putting up some really solid numbers this year. 7.33 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 47% GB, and a 3.45 xFIP. If he qualified, his 3.45 xFIP would actually place him 11th in the NL among starters. For a year riddled with injuries and inconsistent performance, the guy's still been a great pitcher this year.

Good chance he gets to 3.5-4 fWAR this year, as well.

I think Cloyd should ride out the season in LHV and then in September come up and pitch long relief or start in Worley's spot in the event they grow brains and shut him down. He's having a nice season and deserves a try out in the majors, though his FIP suggests he's getting a bit lucky.

Pythagorean W-L:

Cards: 69-47 (+6)
Braves: 67-49 (0)
Dodgers: 62-55 (-2)
DBacks: 62-54 (+4)
Giants: 61-56 (-3)
Pirates: 60-56 (-4)
Mets: 55-61 (0)

Phils don't catch any breaks. Piss poor baseball the 2 weeks before the ASB against a bunch of NL East opponents sunk their season.

Imagine if Reyes had Utley's feel for the game and determination?

Its a shame for the sport that he's such an idiot as he has the natural ability to be an all-time great.

Loved the comments from T-Mac after the play Reyes made in the hole on Dom. Talking about how he's been playing hard all year. Great. That's what your supposed to do.

Speaking of Pence, I actually turned on the Giants-Nats game last night just in time to see a classic Hunter Pence play. Jayson Werth hit a totally catchable fly ball to deep RF. Pence overran the ball, then readjusted, stuck out his glove, and had the ball go 2 inches under it for what was originally ruled a 3-base error (but later changed to a very generous triple).

On the other hand, Pence also had 3 hits on the night.

Rollins has the second-highest ISO of any shortstop in the league.

That's pretty impressive for a guy who had shown a significant power decline over the last couple of years. His power isn't what it was during his late-20s peak, but that's to be expected. His walk rate is still not great, but it's perfectly acceptable and a little bit above his career rate.

The fact that he's still playing good defense, running well, and has consolidated his power and walk rates at a good level is a really encouraging sign for the next couple years. Of course, his age is a big caveat for both performance and injuries, but it's encouraging nonetheless.

So Pence is in mid-season form then?

Even if a miracle happens and they get the Wild Card, it would take a miracle to win it all, too, considering the number of holes.

Upsides to us going on a surge: Both Jeff Conine and Jamie Moyer are available to help out.

BAP: One of Pence's hits was a line shot off the wall in RF, which Werth played absolutely perfectly and held Pence to a single.

It was just a funny moment, watching our past two RFs and comparing them. Pence had a great hit, but Werth made a great defensive play. Werth got a lot of crap here for a variety of reasons, but he also did a lot of the little things really well: he worked counts, was a great baserunner, played really smart defense.

Werth was a very good player who's only downside is that he's now paid like a superstar player.

Also, on Werth's contract, the Nats really hamstrung themselves by backloading it as much as they did. They're on the hook to pay him $83 million for the final 4 years of his deal which are his Age 35-38 seasons. He is basically untradable.

Jack - Yeah, Charlie could have used Vic the last 4 years at leadoff but my question was really based on who he has NOW. And is Viv a true leadoff guy anyway?

'Even if a miracle happens and they get the Wild Card, it would take a miracle to win it all, too, considering the number of holes.'

Not really. We'd probably be the favorite in the play-in game. Then three aces in a short NLDS series.

Victorino is a career .741 OPS hitter in the leadoff spot...in 911 PA.

His overall line is .776 OPS.

Werth was a very good player who's only downside is that he's now paid like a superstar player.

Posted by: NEPP

This. The only heat he caught was for his #s with runners in scoring position and when he dropped an f-bomb on a fan who wouldn't get out of his way. Other than that he was incredibly solid. I have no ill will towards the guy. Only laughter towards Mike Rizzo.

A team that has a number of holes wins the WS more often than not. How often does the alleged best team win?

The funny thing is that Rizzo could have probably signed Werth to something like 5/$85 million...a deal that would look much much better than the 7/126 while still being an overpay to get him to go to a losing franchise (which the Nats were at that time). No other team was even close to 7/126 on Werth.

The 2009 Yankees were the best team in baseball and they won...other than that, you probably have to go back to the Yankees previous run from 1996-2001.

If a miracle happens and we get to the playoffs I would hate to be any other team having to play us. Because we would be on such a roll and totally buzzsaw our way through. Think 2007 Rockies.

It will all come down to a 1 game play in...and UC will start Kendrick over Hamels as Hamels would be on short-rest and it was KK's turn in the rotation.

Beerleaguer will implode upon hearing the news.

That's a hell of a lineup Charlie is putting out there today.

But Kendrick will throw a masterpiece and only have 80 pitches after 7. The Phillies will have a 1-run lead and then Charlie will go to Bastardo who will walk the bases loaded and then give up a 3-run double. Charlie will shrug in his post game presser and say that Antonio is his 8th inning guy. Season over. Charlie returns for 2013.

I can't stand Wigginton.

The fact that Kratz is hitting .385 with RISP (yes, 13 AB only!) definitely warrants him to hit 8th behind the likes of Hector Luna, Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry. Totally makes sense.

Personally, I would have gone with "Kendrick's K's Quell Cloyd Clamor." Say that ten times fast.

Today's lineup is Luna-cy.

Chuck, the Phillies were 49-19 heading into the playoffs (a ridiculous .721 WP) and 52-19 heading into the NLCS (a .733 WP).

It didn't matter, as they lost 4 of 6 to the Giants.

The playoffs are very much a crapshoot. Even in the midst of that 52-19 stretch by the Phillies, they lost 4 IN A ROW to the 76 win Astros at CBP.

Thinking of betting on the Phils today until I saw this craptular lineup:

SS Rollins
3B Frandsen
2B Utley
1B Wigginton
LF Luna
RF Brown
CF Mayberry
C Kratz

That is about as bad a lineup as you will see in MLB this year.

Joe D: "I love how he has his praises sung after a night like last night. Those starts come around less often than a unicorn. He's not a starter."

Assuming unicorns are pretty common, you're right. Kyle Kendrick has made 16 starts this season. In 10 of them, he's allowed 2 earned runs or less. In 6 of them, he's allowed 5 earned runs or more.

I'll do the math: In 62% of his starts he's allowed 2 earned runs or less. In 38% of his starts he has monumentally sucked.


I stand corrected. That's a perfect case of remembering the truly awful far more easily than the good. An easy mistake in this 2012 season.

The idea of "momentum" has been solidly disproven as it pertains to going into the playoffs.

For every 2011 Cardinals, there's a 2006 Cardinals, who lost something like 9 of their last 10 and almost lost the division in the final week of the season, before going on to win the World Series.

Kendrick was good last night because his command was outstanding. Against LH hitters, KK's kryponite, Schneider would hold the glove knee-high on the outside corner and Kendrick would hit the glove with his sinker nearly every time.

Why doesn't that happen every start? Is it because Schneider was the catcher last night? Is it because Halladay gave him a few tips? Is it because Charlie talked to him?

Or is it because he's a maddeningly inconsistent 5th starter, which is what 4th and 5th starters frequently are?

It's mostly the last thing clout but it's also equal parts the Marlins being downright terrible right now.

True, Jack. But after a totally sh!!ty and screwed up season if the Phillies were somehow to do the unthinkable I would put money on them at least going to the NLCS.

NEPP: The 2010 Yankees did win, largely due to a torrid series by Hideki Matsui and the Phils counter to Matsui being Ben Francisco.

This is like countering armored Panzer division with Polish horse cavalry.

Pedro's approach to Matsui still brings me to tears.

Please list this under things I absolutely don't get: Charlie Manuel has no problem starting Schierholtz in CF, a position he hasn't played since high school, but starts Mayberry against Josh Johnson -- a criminal act -- instead of using Laynce Nix, who can actually play CF (albeit not well).

Can someone explain the logic behind that?

Yo, new thread

Jack: Do you think the Phillies would score more runs the rest of the year with Pence and Vic or will score more with Mayberry and Nix?

Pour ne pas être à l'intérieur du comprendre le plus souvent, je suis enclin à n'aimez pas les messages concernant ce sujet progressivement supplémentaires considérez que vous êtes à l'écrire à la mode outre vos moyens personnels, nous avons obtenu de dire, c'est vraiment, vraiment une belle publier de ceux à retenir.

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