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Saturday, August 11, 2012

Comments

Jack (last thread)- what you are saying is that the 'rational choice' is wanting to get the draft pick. Fine, whatever.

I'm a fan, however- we all are- and we're hardly 'rational.' If it comes down to rooting against the team- which you are asking us to do, to hope for the 'best possible outcome-' it just isn't going to happen with me. Sorry if it makes me an idiot for wanting my team to win every game they play.

WP- thank you for the breakdown in the last thread.

So being a 'rational fan' like Jack, I'll root for them until they win 20 games, then hope they go in the tank.

Phils have the 9th worst record in MLB right now.

Teams that have the 10th worst win:

2011 - Colorado (73 wins)
2010 - Mil (77 wins)
2009 - Oakland (75 wins)
2008 - 3 teams (74 wins)
2007 - 2 teams (73 wins)
2006 - 3 teams (76 wins)
2005 - SF (75 wins)
2004 - 2 teams (72 wins)
2003 - Colorado (74 wins)
2002 - Colorado (73 wins)

Average of 74 wins the last decade for 10th worst record. Phils are 51-61 with 50 games left. Basically would have to win 22 or 23 games the rest of the way. Given how they have pitched since the ASB, that's unlikely.

There are a couple of different arguments to this. In the longer run, it is better for the team to have a pick in the top 10 in the draft than not have a 1st round pick.

Phils are almost certainly going to sign a free agent this year who will cost them their 1st round pick and won't have anyone signed off their team that will give them a 1st round pick/sandwich pick after the 1st round.

The argument about 'Phils need to close strong' is largely nonsense. This is a veteran-laden team with a veteran manager who have won frequently and recently.

Bigger issue to the business-side of things though as they try to keep ticket sales and especially no-shows which are becoming more common. Impacts cash flow this year.

Sure there is also the issue where they will try to use a strong 2nd half finish in some of their marketing materials/efforts when they approach season ticket holders in Nov. about renewing.

As a fan, you probably want to see the team play well and do well yet. Maybe you even care on how they finish. Imagine most fans though are fairly apathetic though on where they finish and don't really care if they win 79 or 77 or 75 games. It has been a crappy season.

I fail into the apathetic category. Largely care less about them closing strong or how many games they win. Much more interested to see how some of the veterans look who have battled injuries this year (Howard, Utley, Halladay) and some of the younger players perform including some of the relievers and Brown.

At this rate, the Phils will be climbing out of the bottom ten and losing their first round pick, and very possibly their second round pick as well.

All it takes is two top tier free agents. I suppose we're going to have to hope Rube picks his free agents well.

But remember, while the Phillies are trotting out proven vets to win those last meaningless games, other teams will actually be bringing up prospects and suspects to see what they have for next year. It's not like other teams need to find out what Felix Hernandez and Carlos Gonzalez can do in the majors. But I'll be the Phillies will trot Doc and Cliff and Cole and Vance and Juan Pierre out there right to the bitter end, even though we know what they can do and have no idea about Cloyd and Ruf etc.

aksmith - The only guy on the team right now it might make some sense to shutdown early is Worley. Sure they are monitoring that and it wouldn't surprise me if he is shutdown before the season ends.

I also hope that Utley doesn't start every game the rest of the year either but if he continues to hit he likely will. Maybe get an off day or two.

No reason to call up Ruf either right now. Maybe a Sept callup but that's it. Cloyd you can make a strong case even though his numbers since he has been promoted to Lehigh have dropped off a bit.

To Iceman and others who criticized my observation about the tag on Beltran that ended last nights game,this from Mike Wisniewski, CSN sports writer:

Jimmy Rollins was there, and he scooped up the pitcher’s short-armed throw on one hop before applying the tag under the Cardinal runner’s left arm. Though it appeared as if Beltran may have reached around and gotten his right hand on the bag before the tag, he didn’t argue with the call.

cool: I wasn't among those who criticized you and, when I saw the play, I actually had the same thought as you: Beltran may have been safe. After seeing it on replay multiple times, I still can't really tell if the ump got it right.

That said, no one criticized you for saying the runner might have been safe. They criticized you for blaming Rollins. It was a terrible throw by Papelbon and Rollins did well just to catch it -- let alone tag Beltran nearly simultaneous with his reaching the base.

can someone please shake something loose in UC's noggin, to persuade him- that KK isnot a ML starting pitcher

Iceman: I'm not asking you to root against the team. I already said that I can't imagine any real fan could actually do that.

What I'm saying is to give up these crap arguments that somehow its better for the team to lose a draft pick then to keep a draft pick. That's absurd, and you know it, and you're hiding behind this "I'm such a good fan and you're not" stance. It seems like we are both on the same page--we both are rooting for wins, but we can also recognize the simple fact that one outcome would objectively be better than the other. The only difference is I can admit this, and for whatever reason, you can't get yourself to.

Here's an article on Mike Trout from South Jersey Magazine.

http://southjersey.com/articles/?articleID=26457

Mike Trout went 25th in the draft? Hard to believe that scouting can be that inexact of a science. But it surely is.

When I go to a Phillies game or watch on on TV (and I watch quite a bit), I want to see them play well and win. When I sit down to watch a game, all I care about is the entertainment value. I'm a fan, not a GM or a pseudo-GM, so all the mental gymnastics about draft choices mean little to me. What I want to see is some good baseball, whether it's the first game of the season or the last. Let the chips fall where they may.

Jack: Your noon post about 4 being bigger than 2 reminds me of the story of a sales clerk at (Sears?) He told a customer that a 1/4HP garage door opener was bigger than a 1/3HP because 4 is bigger than 3!

BAP I'll give you that. I probably sounded more down on Jimmy then I should have. I just thought the tag looked a bit slow,but you are correct. He did a pretty god job with the throw he got. My bad on criticizing Jimmy.

Tonite's OF:
2-Dom-RF
5-Nix-LF
6-Nate-CF
The rest is ditto.

Bullpen help is now available. Mike Zagurski has been DFA'd.

Zags!

Schierholtz wasnt really challenged in CF last night but I thought he did fine. Just one game though.

bap: Zags is not available. They meant "Dropped From Airplane"

Lieberthal boned me back in 1993. He's my baby daddy.

aksmith at the end of the Lieberthal thread -- "(B)y all means, dump . . . Schneider too . . . (and) (b)ring up Suomi if you have to and see if he can play in the majors."

I couldn't agree more. The 31-year-old Suomi is a long-time AAA left-handed hitting catcher who has pop in his bat, and can get on real hot streaks, who for much of this season was the Iron Pigs' cleanup hitter. Suomi has displayed home run power in Spring Training (particularly in the Royals' camp a couple of years ago) but has never been given a regular season look. The "conventional wisdom" "in-the-box thinker" guys have been wrong before,so I would like to see Suomi get at least a September call-up with the Phillies this year. Sebastian Valle -- recently elevated from AA Reading to the Iron Pigs, apparently may be the favored catching "prospect" in the organization, but he's hitting .136 in his first look at AAA level pitching, his grand slam last night notwithstanding.

I'll say it again -- Schneider is beyond terrible. I haven't seen the lineups for tonight, but I'll bet Schneider is in the Charlie's card.

aksmith: "Hard to believe that scouting can be that inexact of a science. But it surely is."

I know. Without ever even seeing Mini-Mart face MLB pitching they said he'd suck. You were right to question that judgment. What do scouts know?

BAP: The tragedy of that is the Diamondbacks will no longer have a Zig and Zags bullpen.

After starting 8 straight games in LF, Dom is shifted to RF for second game in a row. I don't think jack and aksmith need to worry about the Phils not taking chances. I suspect we'll see Cloyd unless he flops in Trip A. Ruf is a different story because of his age. Let's see what he does in Trip A first.

For anyone who's read BL over the past 5 years, the number of MLB ready players in the Phils' high minors who would be great if only given a chance is really quite astonishing.

Dragon: Good post.

And there have been some guys who have made good contributions in that category, right, Clout -- such as Closte, and now Frandsen, among others?

And I'd like to see Aumont as a Phillies callup in September -- even with his wildness.

Kratz -- another one of those Phillies "high minors" guys -- is batting eighth and catching tonight.

Aumont and Justin d are the two I want up

First Phils game I get to sit down and watch in a while. Hopefully I get to watch a vintage Cliff Lee start.

I'm setting the O/U for RBI by the rookie Jackson in his major league debut vs the Phillies at 3.

Pretty safe bet that Vic would have had that one.

That's a ball that a real centerfielder would have caught without much difficulty.

Weird watching a fly ball go to center field without Vic there to go after it.

Nice job by Lee on Friese and Beltran.

Lots of tilt that inning.

Lee froze Freese.

(I know . . . that's about the 5th time I've told that joke)

Mike Lieberthal making the Wall of Fame makes an already informal "honor" completely nonsensical. Lieby was a good catcher here for a few years, but overall, he was an average to below average player.

I guess it's all in good fun, and for the fans, but it just seems to make a mockery of something that could have had at least a hint of a dignified stature about it.

show me something Ryan

I still love you Utley!

nice slide Chutley

Fatlots: As long as they insist on doing it every year, there's bound to be some reaches. Unfortunately for phillies fans, our history just ain't that good.

gotta give RH credit for running hard as he could

Fat: Lieberthal was an above average catcher for at least 5 or 6 years. He was also the best catcher in Phillies history (unless you count the 3-year period when Daulton was obviously juicing).

If the Phillies had a long list of great players in their history, then I would probably agree that Lieberthal is a reach. But there are far less deserving guys on the Phillies' Wall of Fame. The current 3rd base coach springs immediately to mind.

BAP, yeah, he had a couple nice years, but he had a career that was less than remarkable, to say the least. He had all of 4 seasons with a wRC+ over 100, with his highest being 123. I don't remember much about his defense, but bbref has his career CS% at 30%, and the league average CS% over his career was 30%. With a career 100 wRC+ (101 OPS+), and a league average CS%, you have a (likely) league average player.

If they have no one to put on the wall that did anything noteworthy, perhaps they shouldn't put anyone up on the wall. That's all.

Obviously, a 100 wRC+ for a catcher might be more than above average for a catcher (I have no way, nor the desire to find out), but I still think it's a reach. That's all I say on it.

Ruf with another HR. Is he too old for the Oldtimers Game?

The old man at Reading hit another one.

How long till they pull out the tarp?

I was wondering why Lee hadn't thrown his curve yet.

He might have trouble gripping the ball in the rain (for the curve)

But Fat, it's the kind of situation where you really have to provide an alternative, since someone is going on that wall one way or another. The team's best catcher seems like a fine choice, even if he doesn't stack up well to other teams' greats.

I would not object to Michael Martinez being on the Wall Of Fame, as long as they actually secured him to the wall.

David Freese is actually a good example of a guy who put up terrific numbers at every level of the minors, never got any love from scouts because he was drafted at age 23 and was old for his level every step of the way, and, when eventually given a chance to play in the majors, quickly went about proving that he was more than up to the task.

Fata: Lieby's career CS% was greatly effected by his final years when he was over the hill. Ages 24 through 30 he threw out 36%, 35%, 35%, 32%, 40%, 36% and 35%, Those were all above league average and among the top leaders in the NL.

Also, as you note, his offense must be compared against catchers, not all position players.

Finally, we are comparing Lieby to all players on the Phillies (and A's prior to 1955) so the universe we are drawing from is not exactly abundant.

Given those factors, Lieby is a perfectly fine choice for the WOF.

Am I the only one that has been impressed with Frandsen's defense?

Nice that a ball to 3B isn't an automatic hit/error anymore just because Polly isn't playing.

NEPP: Frandsen had that one bad game but, otherwise, he has indeed been a huge improvement upon Wigginton & Fontenot. If he keeps hitting well, he will likely play his way into the conversation for 2013.

Watching the Pigs game. Why do their unis say Woodchucks on the front?

BAP: Not sure which scouts you're talking about, but the reports I read all liked Freese. Sickels, before the 2010 season, projected him as a .270, 20 HR hitter with above average defense. BA had him as the 5th best Cardinals prospect.

Neither of those sources has ever called Ruf a prospect.

When is John Denny going on the wall?

Pigs TV guys say Sandburg believes Cloyd has a lot of work to do before being called up.

Clout - I'm going to say this so that even you can understand. I was talking about scouts scouting high school and college players. So Martinez is not part of the discussion.

Yes, I had never seen Martinez before the Phillies brought him over in the rule 5 draft. Neither had you. But these scouts you seem to idolize so much, uh, don't the Phillies have some of them? So, yeah, the Phillies scouts were all wet on Martinez. What do they know? Apparently less than you.

It is now well established that Martinez is not a major league ballplayer. Please stop bringing up Martinez. And I'll stop bringing up your OCD.

Twenty four teams skipped Trout. Jeff Jackson and Greg Golson and Anthony Hewitt were scouted and drafted in the first round. Scouts are not the end of the process. They are the beginning.

norbertods: Never. Only played 3 full seasons here.

And, just like that, this turns into the quintessential Cliff Lee 2012 outing.

aksmith: "Scouts are not the end of the process. They are the beginning."

Totally agree. But they are right more often than they are wrong so I'll go with them over a guy on a blog named aksmith.

I guess it's important to see how Ruf can do at AAA. Because the Phillies are playing so many important games now that they can't afford to take a look see.

Yes, this season is so important now that caution is the watchword.

Do people hear themselves when they think things like that? What better time to empty out the cupboard and see what you have? There are three spots open on the forty man, and Wiggy and Poly and Martinez are clogging up three more. That means you can put up to six players on the forty man and bring them up to see what they have, no muss no fuss.

Just your typical Quality Start.

clout: Well, I stand (sort of) corrected on Freese then. I say "sort of" because, by 2010, he had been raking in the minors for 4 full years. If that's the first time he showed up on top 10 lists, then it took the scouts a long time to get with the program, even though he had been raking from Day 1.

Clout - I had never seen Minimart. You had never seen Minimart. I merely wanted to give him a chance since the Phillies' scouts saw something in him. They were wrong. Now that we've seen him, he stinks and they were wrong. Can you please give it a rest. You have truly become the Clout parody your mommy used to warn you about.

You are like a rerun that wasn't any good the first time.

aksmith: So you believe every player in the minor leagues should be recalled at some point? That's goofy.

I suspect the Phils want to see Ruf play in Trip A. If he can't handle it there, what's the point? No reason at all to move him directly to the big leagues.

Cloyd is a different story. He's a legitimate prospect.

Clout: I'm aware. He did win a Cy Young though. From what I remember he was as cantankerous as they come. Not advocating that he be on the wall though. Was just spitballing, so to speak.

BAP: "If that's the first time he showed up on top 10 lists..."

Where did top 10 come from? You went from "never got any love from scouts" to "top 10 lists."

Big diff. In any event, Sickels liked him in 09 also. I'd have to dig out my BA list to see where they ranked him that year.

Your point is a good one. Freese, however, is not an example of it.

Brody Colvin had a nice stat line tonight:

2.2 IP, 4 hits, 8 earned runs, 7 walks

Robert Person has a better chance of being on the WOF than John Denny.

Will Lee win a game at CBP this year?

ground ball after ground ball

aksmith, if we worked in the Phils' front office:

"Guys, I have this great idea to start the sellout streak again."

"Oh yeah? What's that?"

"Bring up Darin Ruf and Tyler Cloyd. People will fill the seats to see guys they never heard of who most likely aren't major league quality take the field every day. What do we have to lose?"

"You're fired."

can't we adust to the sinker at all?

Westbrook putting all his sinkers in a good location tonight. Even being patient with him doesn't seem to work.

Our scouts loved Brody Colvin and Anthony Hewitt too.

Scouts do their best but its pretty much a craps shoot.

are all of the sinkers strikes?

franzke and la are certainly making this game fun at least

clout: Well, I do not have the advantage of a subscription to scouting services. It was my understanding that Freese never got much love from the scouts. And, considering he's one of the best 3rd basemen in baseball, I think it's fair to say that his 3-year absence from top 10 lists is an indication that he was underappreciated by scouts.

Iceman-

I am sure the fans will be just as stoked to watch Ty Wigginton and Michael Martinez fart around in September instead.

Get Lee out of the game already. Its not a playoff game, Chuckles.

2 cheap singles

BAP: Whatever you say.

another blah performance from Lee

Paul Newman: Seems like it.

In the past decade plus, who had the best sinker? Webb, K. Brown, Lowe, Hudson?

I remember Hershiser shutting down the league for a summer with the pitch.

Any reason why Lee is still in there?

Well, now they have to take him out. Another $25 million start.

50 million for how many wins?

Seeing those old clips the last couple of days should remind us all of how blessed we were to hear Harry and Richie.

franzke sounds like he's been drinking. la always sounds like that.

Robert Person was better than I remembered. Went 38-24, with ERA+ of 103 in his 4 years here.

Phillies got him for Paul Spoljaric, one of the better trades of that dark era.

you're right Jr. We are stuck with a lousy team,lousy mgmt,and lousy announcers

mini mart will ph for cliff Lee

How many Lee starts has the team scored 3 or fewer runs?

Rosenbloom can't throw strikes

Okay,just pulled by 2007 Baseball Prospectus off the shelf (when Freese was a 24 year old in A- ball.)

It said, "He's old but if he can hit his way to AA, he might just make it to the Majors".

The 2009 BP stated that he got passed over due to injuries and would have to fight with Allen Craig for the last spot on the 25 man as a result...it was down on his defense though.

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