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Wednesday, August 22, 2012


Does Bastardo have any options left? Maybe they should send him to Lehigh to work on his command.


NEPP, what's actually kind of crazy, if we use ERA+, Rivera still might have been better:

Kimbrel's in the middle of his third season, and has a career ERA+ of 248.

Rivera from 1997-1999: 243 ERA+
Rivera from 2003-2005: 265 ERA+
Rivera from 2004-2006: 260 ERA+
Rivera from 2008-2010: 271 ERA+
Rivera from 2009-2011: 243 ERA+

I know that ERA+ isn't the best way to measure relievers, but as good as Kimbrel's been, he can mentioned in the same breath as Rivera, but I'll still take Rivera in his prime.

LV will wrap up its season soon. Best place for Bastardo to figure it out is the last 40-some games in the Show.

What made Rivera so good was the fact that he didn't walk batters, and he had good strikeout numbers, but beyond that, it was just insanely difficult to make good contact against his cutter. This is evidenced by his career .262 BAbip. He only had one season with a BAbip over .300, with EIGHT falling under .250, and most of this happened during seasons in which offense wasn't suppressed.

No comparable in terms of dominance and longevity.

NEPP: you mean work on his velocity, right? Everyone knows command and control don't matter.

wait, if you don't throw a ball over the plate, it won't be a strike? Thats such a deep level of baseball knowledge that I wonder if the player themselves even know this wisdom.

I think if we preface everything we ever post on this blog and real life conversation with the fact that throwing the ball in the strikezone when you want to throw a strike is important - then maybe we can raise awareness of this concept.

In the case of pitchers like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Jamie MOyer, the term strike-zone is not rigorously defined.

lorecore (last thread): here's an excerpt from one of my posts after the Papelbon signing:

"And as JW mentioned, Papelbon blew it for the Sox in September, specifically the last week of the season. Now, I don't think by any stretch of the imagination that you can call him 'un-clutch,' because the guy has pitched in enough big games in just about the most hostile environment imaginable (Boston is just as bad, if not worse, than Philly when it comes to fan scrutiny) to pass the 'he's a closer' test, if there is such a thing.

But if it's part of a trend of Papelbon wearing down as the season goes on, that is not insignificant. He blew two saves in September this year and had a 3.72 ERA, allowing 11 baserunners in 9.2 innings. That's not great. In 2010, he had a 10.61 ERA in September, giving up 11 runs in 9 appearances and allowing 20 baserunners in 9.1 innings. He also took the loss for a game in October. That's flat-out awful. And in his last postseason appearance in 2009, he allowed 5 baserunners and 3 ER in 2 appearances against Anaheim, blowing the save in the final game and taking the loss."

I was arguing that Madson should have been signed in this post, though, so we'll leave the rest of it out.

MLBTradeRumors is reporting that Arizona is looking for a SS. Perhaps a deal involving Rollins and Upton and a shift of Galvis to SS would be beneficial for all concerned.

It seems that the only way Jimmy will be taken out of the leadoff spot in Philly is if he's hurt, traded or of Charlie no longer manages the team.

On a side note, now that Wolf has been released, I still say that he'd be a wise investment for the bullpen. They've had decent luck with converting aging, declining starters into effective relief arms.

Injuries are the biggest reason the Phils are where they are, but reasons #2 and #3 have to be that the team was relying on Mayberry & Bastardo to be significant contributors on league minimum contracts based on 2011's production and both of them came up very small. If Mayberry were putting up a 130 ops+ and Bastrardo a 147 era+ (last year's #'s) we'd be a wildcard team or close to it right now, yes?

Will, if Arizona is looking for a shortstop, they are probably hoping to make a stretch run to make the playoffs (5 GB of a WC berth as it stands). If this is the case, they'd surely be reticent to give up Upton.

Mike Schmidt made a good point about how the Phillies are losing games like this because they have lost focus (playing down to their last place record). Bastardo's control is bad, but he has to know that with two outs and no one on, he can't throw a fastball down the middle of the plate. As for Cozart's HR, there is a case of hitter on first place team in a high pressure situation going to the plate with a plan (scouting report says Papelpon has moved away from the split to his fastball as his strike pitch--look for a fastball in the right spot).

For years, we've been hearing about all of these minor league relievers (i.e., Schwimer, Aumont, DeFratus, Diekman, Ramirez, Savery, Rosenberg) who represent the future of the Phillies' bullpen. Who would have ever imagined that the only one to emerge from this season as a near-lock for the 2013 bullpen would be Jeremy Horst?

Fat: The article on MLBTR says Arizona will be looking for a shortstop in the off-season.

Well then, I retract my statement. Thanks BAP for clearing that up. I probably should have figured out given that Will mentioned moving Galvis to SS, which would only happen after this season, anyhow.

Since Manuel isn't going to use Bastardo, as shown the last few weeks, I am not sure it's best for him to work things out in the majors.

"MLBTradeRumors is reporting that Arizona is looking for a SS. Perhaps a deal involving Rollins and Upton and a shift of Galvis to SS would be beneficial for all concerned."

I don't know what's better- that replacing Rollins with Galvis would be 'beneficial,' or the thought that we could get them to give up Upton for Rollins.

Surprised how crappy the Phils have been this year overall defensively. Guess I got used to this team making the routine plays and executing well. They did have a few really nice plays last year (especially Frandsen's throw home in the 6th) but also had a couple of defensive miscues that hurt them too.

Hard to see them being improved defensively next year either with a bunch of aging infielders back again next year and Brown as the likely starter in LF/RF.

Iceman: I think Arizona would have to throw in some prospects as well, just to make it even.

When it comes to Baseball, it's all about a Top Down effect and it starts with the Ownership.
Although in years past you could complain about the Ownerships Financial Contributions in establishing a successful Franchise, but, that's NO longer an issue. Ownership has finally stepped up in recent years and all we can hope now, is that they continue to do so.
Next is the GM - Although Ruben Amaro is fairly new to this role, he has been seasoned for this position and up until the Re-Signing of Jimmy Rollins, was doing a pretty good job at it.
Nonetheless, this is a major screwup on Amaro's part. He should have let Rollins walk. Rollins is an enigma for this team. This is Bobby Abreu all over again, me, me, me!
Rollins is no longer the player he was 4 years ago, as a matter of fact, he's not even close to that player he was 4 years ago, which leads me to this Club's biggest problem and that's the Manager, Charley "the bobble" Manuel. Don't get me wrong here people, because I believe Charlie is a Sweetheart of a Guy, BUT, when it comes to managing a Baseball Team he's only 50% qualified. He's fantastic when it comes to interacting with his Players but he SUCKS at Managing the Ballclub on the field.
Last night was a perfect example of it again and it starts every game with when he hands in his starting lineup and J.R. is leading off!
Last night and every night, my God, Charlie never has absolutely NO feel for the game and this year more than any others proves this!
Yes injuries have been a problem for the Ballclub this year but if Charlie were any kind of Baseball Tactician, he realistically should have converted at the minimum, 1/3 of those loses into wins.
All in all people, the first major move Amaro needs to make at the end of this season is replacing Charlie with Sandberg.
Once this is done, all personnel issues can be dealt with in order, starting with Rollins!
It's time for a Manager to run this team, not the Players!

Randy Wolf has been released by the Brewers. It's simply unacceptable to surrender that many runs to the Phillies.

Return of the Wolf Pack! tonight as a part of the 90s Retro Night.

A little foreshadowing perhaps?!

Wolf isn't particularly tough on lefties though. I bet Wolfie can still find work in a rotation next season, but it would be a 5th starter gig. I wonder if he's healthy. I have a hard time believing he's finished as a starter. Had a decent year last year.

I know it means nothing going forward (and ARI will not and should not trade Upton for Rollins), but Rollins has an fWAR of 3.0 this year, compared to Upton's 1.8 fWAR.

Just been a crappy year for Justin Upton.

. . . . . yeah, Jimmy Rollins & Charlie are all that's wrong with the team this year.

. . . . . yeah, Jimmy Rollins & Charlie are all that's wrong with the team this year.

Posted by: jbird | Wednesday, August 22, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Don't forget Ryan Howard. If he could have just played through his little leg injury, this team would be in much better position.

Anyone know what happened to Jason Knapp? I work the door at a bar in Rutgers/New Brunswick and I checked an ID with that name last night. Surely enough, after a quick google search, it was him, and baseball-reference did not have stats for him after 2010.

Wasn't he the centerpiece of that first Lee deal as well?

CRD: The Indians released Knapp a couple of weeks ago.

I heard he enrolled at U. Penn.

Fata: good point, if Howard had gotten a voluntary leg amputation and gotten one of those running blades like Oscar Pistorias, he could have salvaged his season. selfish, selfish, selfish.

"It seems that the only way Jimmy will be taken out of the leadoff spot in Philly is if he's hurt, traded or of Charlie no longer manages the team."

Or they acquire a better leadoff hitter (who wouldn't be a better fit elsewhere in the lineup).

Manuel didn't sound so dead set in this Murphy article:

The one play from last night's game that most stands out in my mind is not the Papelbon or Bastardo homers. It's not the comedy of errors on the Mayberry throw to home plate & the bungled cut-off by Howard. And it's not the ill-advised bunts by Rollins or Pierre. It's a play that no one else seemed to notice, or pay much heed to: the 7th inning play on which Ryan Hannigan, a slow-footed catcher who has managed to have 1,234 major league PAs without ever stealing a base, not only challenged Juan Pierre's arm by trying to score from 2nd on a line drive single to shallow LF, but actually succeeded in scoring without Pierre even attempting a throw.

The play probably made no difference to the game's outcome, since Hannigan would likely have scored on the next AB (Utley's error) anyhow. But it somehow struck me as symbolic of the Phillies' entire season: a cast-off player with declining skills, thrust into a key role because of other players' injuries & non-performance, who was just physically incapable of making a perfectly simple defensive play that would have saved a run (at the time), and that almost every other major league player at his position would have made.

As a side note: the next time someone on Beerleaguer advocates that we bring back Juan Pierre in 2013, that poster should be forced to watch a video of last night's 7th inning play.

With holes to fill next year at third, outfield, and in the bullpen, it would be nice if we could pencil in Utley for a majority of games at second.

Given that he's got a chronic knee problem and every player has a finite number of games in them, when does the organization sit him down with an eye on 2013?

BAP, Pierre has had a nicer season that I ever expected. But the notion of bringing him back in 2013 as a starting option for one of our corner OF positions literally makes me feel nauseous.

Speaking of Galvis, have we heard anything about his rehab progress? I try to keep on top of all the news, but haven't seen anything on this.

Although there are some intriguing possibilities with him for 2013, all of those would seem to be guarded given the uncertainty of recovery and also the unknowns of his performance without PEDs.

He seems like a good kid, and I hope that he'll recover from the injury and the suspension and continue to develop and contribute.

BAP: It was embarassing to watch. The runner was being sent even though Pierre had the ball in his hands before the runner even passed 3B, and still didn't even bother to make a throw.

I mean. That's absurd.

aren't there exercises you can do for arm strength? Is Pierre just genetically predisposed to having a weak arm or maybe it is because he has a frenchy last name like Pierre.

By the way, Gelb makes a decent point. The Reds scored twice in the late innings off two good relievers (Bastardo and Papelbon) simply with one swing each time. Meanwhile, the Phillies were stuck trying to bunt in the 9th inning, a terrible tactical decision.

The issue is power. The Phillies have barely any of it. I've made this point repeatedly, but I continue to believe that the lack of power is the reason the Phillies have struggled in the playoffs the last couple of seasons, and why they continue to struggle in close games. Against top pitchers (whether a starter or reliever), the likelihood of stringing together a bunch of walks and singles is very small. But if you have power, all you need is one mistake pitch and one good swing, and you can score.

The Reds showed it last night, and the Phillies' lack of power showed as well. The ability to hit home runs is still somehow the most underrated ability in the game.

Bastardo is a good reliever?

"The ability to hit home runs is still somehow the most underrated ability in the game."

what? I think year's of salary data starting with Home Run Baker would disprove this theory.

can, until Galvis shows that he can actually hit ML pitching, he's simply a fringe utility infielder in my eyes.

This is not to say that I don't hope he's recovering nicely.

Jack, Phils are middle of the pack in terms of ISO this year. They were bottom 5 earlier this season, so I'd imagine they are above average since Utley and Howard have returned.

jbird: I meant more among fans. You hear it all the time: "this team is too dependent on the home run," or "they need to play small ball and manufacture runs." Which is complete garbage.

You can tell someone doesn't understand baseball if they think a team or a player should hit less home runs.

To be more exact, we are 9th in the NL in ISO. We were around 13th when I last checked this figure in June.

And the biggest reason they didn't come back against Chapman last night wasn't a lack of power. It was due to an abundance of having to face Chapman.

Does anybody know where to find a replay of Bastardo throwing a fastball right down the middle of the plate for Todd Frazier to hit out like Cole Handsome says he did? I'd like to see it
I could have sworn it was a pretty good slider that wad down and out of the strike zone that Frazier got fooled on yet was still able to hit it out. He pretty much one handed it. If a guy is gonna hit that pitch out, there is not much a pitcher can do about it. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I remember it.

It was a fastball...the slider was the pitch before IIRC.

Fatalotti: Oh yeah, for sure. I'm not trying to say the Phils should have been able to score on Chapman. Trust me. He's insanely good.

It was more a general point about how easily the Reds were able to score, despite not being able to string together baserunners against Paps and Bastardo. I just think that in close games, and in games against good pitching, the ability to score on one swing is just so valuable, and the Phillies simply haven't had that in a few years. Their power numbers have drastically declined since their offensive heyday of 2005-2009.

Jack, I agree. Power pitching and power offense are the best components to winning in late game baseball. Relievers need the ability to miss bats (can't hit a homerun if you don't hit the ball), and hitters need the ability to hit the random mistake pitches out of the park.

On a side note - current scouting report on maikel franco;

This guy likes him a little. So now we have Asche and Franco both doing well at 3b.

Chapman since July 1st:

23.2 IP, 46 SO, 12 H, 3 BB, 1 ER, .146 BAA, .378 OPS against, 0.634 WHIP

He's kinda hot of late.

NEPP, that 15.33 K/BB is pretty good, too.

Expecting the Phils to rally against Chapman was asking for an awful lot.

Still hated that bunt call with JRoll though. Polanco is slow and JRoll isn't a good bunter and doesn't do it much.

Almost setting it up this fall that Chapman has a historically great season as a reliever only to give up a key game in the postseason for the Reds.

With Votto back, I still like the Reds as the best team in the NL in the postseason right now (considering the Nats will shutdown Strasburg).

Imagine how tough the Reds would have been had Madson been healthy.

In a lot of ways, the Reds remind me of the '08 Phils. '08 Phils lineup overall was better but both lineups have power through out. Each staff has a clear ace (Hamels/Cueto) and a bunch of slightly above average/average starters but the strength of the pitching staff is a dominant closer built around a pretty deep bullpen.

Would Madson get a WS ring if the Reds won it? Or does he have to have at least 1 appearance?

My guess is no but I'm too lazy to look it up.

The 2008 Phils probably had more depth than this current Reds offense, but they didn't have a hitter in the same realm as Joey Votto. And this Reds bullpen is much better at the backend then the 2008 Phils squad. Marshall is better than Madson was that year (even at the end), and Chapman is much better than Lidge. As far as pitching goes, I think it's nearly a wash, because I don't trust Arroyo and Bailey to keep this up, but Cueto is a good deal better than Hamels was in 2008.

I'd take this Reds team over the 2008 Phils team, but I like the comp.

The 2008 Phillies also had pretty much ever little break go their way in the there's that.

Speaking of similarities between Reds/Phils, Baker and Cholly strike me as being very similiar in several aspects.

- Both have reps as being strong 'player's managers' who don't publicly rip their players or disclose problems
- Both clearly prefer veterans to unproven rookies especially in the bullpen
- Both have a reputation of giving their starters (especially veterans) a long leash
- Both dislike platoons and prefer the same starting 9 as much as possible
- Both have their share of fans who will criticize these guys for their tactical acumen and strategy decisions during the course of a game

I would say both are above average managers. Interesting conversation you who consider a better manager. I would maybe give the nod to Baker but it's a toss up.

I do not care for Dusty.

Neither do I.

Jack: you were an adamant that power was very overrated for years. This season you have harped on the importance of power more than once.

What changed your mind, debate on beerleaguer or personal realization?

If there is an NL team I am pulling for it, it is the Reds (Pirates if they make it too but it is hard to see them getting through 2 rounds of the playoffs).

This series and the upcoming Nats series I was really interested to watch to see how the Phils played and to see how the 2 best teams in the NL looked.

Really looking forward to the Lee/J. Zimmerman matchup I am going to on Sunday. Phils may be dog meat this year but still really appreciate watching a matchup between 2 solid starters.

I get that we could use some OF/bullpen help, and I also understand that a trade is a good way to do so. However, can we all agree that any scenario that ends in relying on Galvis to be a starter at any IF position is a terrible, terrible idea?

We went into this season with Mayberry factoring into a somewhat regular role (though, not even full time starter status), and I don't think anyone would argue that his upside offensively is significantly higher than Galvis'. Look how that turned out.

It's funny to me how someone is willing to make these theoretical tradeoffs on sacrificing some offense, yet if/when it comes to pass that they're exactly what they've always been, these guys get lambasted.

In a similar vein, last night sold me on Frandsen in 2013 - AS A UTILITY GUY. Anyone delirious enough to think that he can be a full time starter needs a good refresher on how lifetime stats correlate well to setting expectations.

"two good relievers (Bastardo and Papelbon)"

Calling Bastardo 'good' at this point is hilarious.

He's got an ERA over 8 since June.

I realize that I haven't exactly ripped it up since I've been back - but I would ask my detractors to look at my stats with RISP.

There is a reason that I've been a prodigious RBI man throughout my career, and luck ain't the reason.

Anyone seen Jack?

MG- interesting you bring up the '08 Phils comparison. I was thinking the same thing watching them in the first game.

I also remember thinking, when playing the Reds in 2010, "This team will be better than the Phils pretty soon." I think the Phils can clearly play with them (based solely on the starting staff), but it's obvious that their time has come. Definitely the team I'll be pulling for come playoff time.

Willard: I am right with you on Frandsen, but the alternative options are so god awfully bad that it might not even matter.

I am a firm Frandsen "hater" too, but the 3B market/internal options are just non existence. I really don't know what they could possibly do.

lore, yeah, I suppose that's the crux of the whole situation. I don't think anyone WANTS to go to battle with the likes of Frandsen as a starting 3B, but what are the alternatives? I'm actually most afraid that Rube would answer that question with "Polly."

I'll take either as a utility guy next year, but to anoint either as the starter isn't much different than fielding a lineup that relies frequently on Mayberry or Wiggington. You're rolling the dice hoping for something exceeding normal output.

Frandsen has had a nice little ride since they called him up, but digging a little deeper into his numbers:

His BB% of 2.4% is so pitiful, nothing needs to be said.

His K% of 8% if really good, and seems to be in line with career averages.

He has an ISO of .088, and in 710 ML PA, has a career ISO of .091.

Why does he have a 124 wRC+ this year? Simple... .365 BAbip.

He seems to make enough contact that he could have a passable utility IF bat, but there is almost no power in his game, and no ability to draw a walk to speak of, that if you are counting on this guy as your 2013 starting 3B, you aren't counting on much offensive production out of that position.

With so many 2013 holes to fill, one or two of them will probably have to be filled with Fransden-esque, Nix-esque, Mayberry-esque, Herndon-esque solutions.

There is a reason that I've been a prodigious RBI man throughout my career, and luck ain't the reason.

Power, of course, and Shift, and the minimalization thereof with RISP. If you are selling clutch juju or something, I'm not buying it. He'd be Albert the Freakin' Great if he could hit to all fields. (I've never seen anyone like him, who hits so many of his HRs the opposite way, but can't hit a Line Drive or Ground Ball that way to save his life.)

Wow, are there really people on this blog complaining about Kevin Frandsen? I am starting to wonder about some of the posters on BL.
Frandsen is one of the bright spots in this mostly dismal season. A minor league call up who is hitting 350, getting clutch hits, hustling like crazy and contributing with his fielding. Cut us a break with the over analysis of his career stats and trending for his 80 at bats-- give the guy some credit. He is getting a chance and is making the most of it.

I have to get my wolf suit to the cleaners

Jake, I don't think anyone would disagree with what you said. The question is whether he can be expected to continue what he is doing and provide some offense as a starting third baseman.

And the stats say No - that's pretty unlikely.

Jake, no one is denigrating what Frandsen has done so far. I would kill to have had just one stretch of 84 PAs and 21 games like he's had this year. That's awesome, he looks like he's playing really hard and having lots of fun. Good for him.

But since this season is lost, it's natural to discuss next season, no?

And if people on here are considering that Frandsen might be a legitimate starting option next year at 3B, doesn't it make sense to dig a little deeper to look at his numbers to see if there's any reason that he's been a productive offensive force this year, as compared to other stints in the majors?

Just so you know, every time someone points out a statistic that doesn't paint a specific player in a favorable light isn't tantamount to "ripping" said player. It's a matter of trying to bring some objective analysis into the discussion. Sorry if such things offend you.

My view on Frandsen is informed by the following 2 premises:

Premise No. 1, which I've come to after watching a season of Mike Fontenot & Ty Wigginton, is that the 2013 3rd baseman must play good defense. I didn't originally think Frandsen qualified, but he may be converting me. He isn't nearly as consistent as Polanco, but he's got better range & has looked pretty good, overall.

Premise No. 2 is that, of the 4 everyday positions where there are currently vacancies or question marks (3rd base & the 3 OF spots), 2 need to be filled with above average bats (maybe 1 if Dom can give evidence that he's an above average bat but, so far, he hasn't). Frandsen certainly doesn't qualify as an above average bat. On the other hand, at least he's not a complete disgrace with the bat the way Galvis and Mini-Mart are.

If the Phillies can fill 2 OF vacancies with above average bats, I would be fine with giving the 3rd base job to a guy like Frandsen, who can play decent defense and isn't a total disgrace at the plate. And, given the available options at the various positions, I suspect it's going to be much easier to find 2 outfielders who can hit than it will be to find a good offensive 3rd baseman.

"He is getting a chance and is making the most of it."

And I'm supportive of his "making the most of it" translating into a bench spot in 2013. I think what we're all agreeing to, however, is that a team contending for a playoff spot does not regularly start a Frandsen caliber player.

I think what he's done is great. But let's not go all "Wilson Valdez makes Jimmy Rollins expendable" based on some meaningless games here.

OK, I stand corrected. I just looked at the replay and it was a fastball. That said, I still don't think that it was a terrible pitch. It's not like it was belt high. It was down and Frazier golfed it. Just my opinion.

Actually, I need to add a third premise: if circumstances require us to go with a defensive-oriented 3rd baseman who doesn't bring much to the table offensively, then we damn sure can't spend $4.5M on that guy.

I didn't think Bastardo's pitch was that bad either. Also seemed kinda weird to not use him for a few weeks and then go to him back-to-back nights.

Jake,I agree. However you must remember that the Bler professionals have a crystal ball and know what everyone will do in the future .
Revert to norms.I know there are lots of 3b hitting .300 plus with lots of power,why give Frandsen a shot next year?

Last night's game was a tough loss, but at least three guys came up small (Bastardo, Papelbon, and of course, Manuel). The above statement quote of Schmidt is apropos, but moreso set in relief to the play by Frandsen to the plate on the liner to third, it is clear that this team is not thinking. Frandsen knew beforehand what he was going to do and simply did it. In comparison, the recent flobs by the outfield, of throwing to the wrong base or not hitting the cut off man shows a lack of concentration and frankly poor coaching (since these things ought to automatic to a big league player).

It is a poorly coached team, that at heart does not play fundamentally sound baseball in a consistent manner, and that more than anything is what pisses me off about this team. They have the ability, but they don't put together enough consistent play to prove it.

As pleasantly surprise as I am with Juan Pierre's season thusfar, I am equally appalled at Papelbon's. He has been, to put it mildly, a disappointment.

Prior to this season, he was one of my least favorite players in baseball because of his demeanor, taking way too long to throw the ball, his attitude during pre- and post-game interviews, the BS he says, etc. I figured when he signed with the Phils, I'd give him a fresh start with regard to that stuff -- maybe a new uniform will change my opinion. Nope. He still does those things AND he can't seem to nail down a close game. I dislike him even more.

Heading to the game tonight, so chalk it up as another loss. Sorry, ladies and gents. I'm still winless on the season.

I can't pretend that most of my problem with Papelbon is his d-bag act on and off the mound.

If the guy was pitching at an elite level, I'd grit my teeth and put up with it (as I did earlier in the season). But he's not, so the tolerance I had for the other stuff is gone.

Jake,I agree. However you must remember that the Bler professionals have a crystal ball and know what everyone will do in the future .
Revert to norms.I know there are lots of 3b hitting .300 plus with lots of power,why give Frandsen a shot next year?

Posted by: Jr. | Wednesday, August 22, 2012 at 01:55 PM

What a hollow comment. Nobody is claiming to know the future, but Frandsen has 710 career ML plate appearances, is 30 years old and has a career wRC+ of 73. Even in this day and age, where there are "no good 3B", that 73 wRC+ would put him as the 4th WORST 3B in the National League (at least 100 PAs).

The point is, there's certainly a possibility that Frandsen could keep this up, but go ahead and look at his numbers. Do you really think a guy with no ability to take a walk (and he never has), no power to speak of (and he never has), but with really good contact skills is going to keep up a 124 wRC+ over an extended period of time?

If you do, then you're in the scant minority. Baseball, more than any sport, is about playing the odds, and the odds don't favor Frandsen being a good 3B option next year.

Also, I didn't catch part of your comment, but did you say "lots of power"? Since when is a .088 ISO "lots of power"?

That's basically Juan Pierre territory.

Interesting point by Schmidt on the team's loss of focus. My quick take had been that the team might be more relaxed and play better in this stretch of ball without the pressure of fighting for a playoff spot. I tended to blame some of the mental mistakes on the presence of more minor league guys in the lineup, new players in sometimes different positions on any given night, etc.

But perhaps lack of pressure leads to the loss of focus. Michael Jack certainly knows way more about it than I do at that level, so he may be on to something.

Also, Jason's gloomy words on Papelbon are ominous. To state the over-obvious, this is the youngest he'll be here in the NL and for the Phils, and this is his first time around in this league. What will he be like with another year under his belt, a year of NL players having faced him before, and a year of them realizing there may not be as much as was thought to be there behind the intimidating glare and mystique?

I'm of the opinion that given his contract situation, there was nothing that Papelbon could do but disappoint.

Sil - Pretty much. The Phils weren't getting the Papelbon of '06-'08. The big red flag though is that his fastball which is his money pitch has had notably lower velocity all year.

Papelbon was routinely a guy who amped it up to 95-96 when he needed to. Hasn't been the case this year.

Does it make a difference last night when that 93 MPH fastball was hit out instead of being 95-96? Possibly.

new thread

"I can't pretend that most of my problem with Papelbon is his d-bag act on and off the mound.

If the guy was pitching at an elite level, I'd grit my teeth and put up with it (as I did earlier in the season). But he's not, so the tolerance I had for the other stuff is gone."

Iceman, nailed it in 1 for my ambivalence about Paps when he was with the Sox.

Has J-Roll become the Bobby Abreu of this team?

Abreu was traded so that the young players (Utley, J-Roll, etc) could take the leadership.

Any thoughts

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EST. 2005

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