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Friday, August 03, 2012

Comments

The reason Phils will pull Lee back is because they don't have to trade him. And if they are forced to negotiate with just one suitor (the team that claimed him), they can't better their deal.

If they want to deal him (and I'm not sure they do), they can revisit it in the off-season and open up the number of suitors.

Another example of FO foolishness.

RK: What was foolish about it?

Could you replace, or even improbe upon, the value of Cliff Lee just by spending his salary on a number of other players? A smart GM could. Ruben Amaro Jr could not.

@howardeskin: Phils P cliff Lee pulled off waivers. What that means a team claimed Lee and phils could not work out deal & pulled him off

RK -How is that foolish? It's just an exercise to gauge interest in a player.

Mick O: Apparently this year's free agent class is pretty weak. Not sure why you need a whole lot more cash than what the Phils will already be spending.

No Martinez in tonight's lineup. Chris Branch tweets: Rollins SS, Schierholtz RF, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Mayberry CF, Brown LF, Frandsen 3B, Schneider C, Kendrick P.

Good to see Chooch off.
Would it kill them to put him on the 15 day DL and give him a couple of weeks to heal?

That someone would find CL interesting is a silly question. That a team like the Yankees who would love to have Lee would try to prevent a competitor from cutting a deal for Lee is also a given. The Yankees did it to the Red Sox a few years ago. For which tehy were called "the evil empire". Remember?
Its foolish becuase it also is insulting to Lee who made a commitment to Philly "He would rather be in Philly" Remember?
If the Phils wanted to cut a deal they had plenty of time to do it, now is not the time.

No harm, no foul type move.

"Could you replace, or even improbe upon, the value of Cliff Lee just by spending his salary on a number of other players?"

If every player in baseball became a free agent after the season, I'd say you'd have about a 50-50 chance of replacing, or improving upon, Cliff Lee by spending his salary elsewhere. In a free agent market where there's no can't-miss superstar, where there are probably only 8 to 10 really good everyday players, and where the best starting pitcher is not as good as Lee (and is likely to get around the same money), you can color me extraordinarily skeptical that $25M in spending money, alone, would be of more value than Cliff Lee.

Schneider? I need a barf bag.

RK: welcome to the moronocracy. (Hey-O!)

Seriously, this is a good litmus test to see if fans understand talent management.

Suppose the following is reported: upon being claimed on waivers, the claiming team called the Phils to begin negotiating. Amaro cut the other GM off and said "Lee is not available." Amaro then pulled Lee back without even hearing the claiming team's offer.

Seriously, that's what reports should read. Because regardless of whether any discussions took place, there is ABSOLUTELY no reason for Rube to admit that they've talked. It serves no good. Rube should insist that he didn't even hear out the other team.

My guess is hearing that "Rube didn't even listen" would set this place on fire. And the arsonists would all be wrong.

RK: Cliff Lee is a big boy and has been traded multiple times in his career (including by the same GM he signed a contract with). I doubt he's all torn up about being placed on waivers.

I agree with MG, no harm, no foul. If he had cleared waivers and Phils could negotiate freely with all teams and an overwhelming offer came their way, you make the deal. If not, pull him back and that's that.

Does Kendrick also have a personal catcher? Why not Kratz who seems to eb able to hit?

..and not to mention can throw people out at second!

Call me crazy but if lee deal looks like a bad deal now just let him go....nexy year we would beable to bring in 3 or 4 star players and get back on top... should have over 60 million to play with..lets see Hamilton.melky.Bourne..Wright..and still have 2 aces..

how have we not seen something like this yet regarding blanton:

Breaking News: In-n-Out Burger expecting surge in sales to produce record profits

I was expecting it to be comment 4 or 5. BL, what are you doing NOT making fat jokes?
But in all seriousness, thanks for the good times Big Joe. I was there for his mighty HR swing a few years back. I'll always have that memory.

----
and why bother with schneider? it's fine to have him a third, emergency catcher so you can use the bats of your other two at the moment (I guess). but, come on now, he's not good.

john g: David Wright will not be a free agent this off-season.

Looking to move Lee also isn't the craziest idea either. He's owed $87.5M the next 3 years and is going to be 34 this month.

Likely Lee does have a better year next year but I would bet he doesn't give the Phils value for the entire length of his contract.

Really depends on what the Phils can get for him (especially MLB-ready talent), how much salary they would have to eat to move him, and what they would do with the $25M they free up.

RK - Schneider is LH?

A reason, not necessarily a good reason.

So how many players are left from 08'?

john: First of all, the Mets have a team option on Wright that they are sure to exercise. Second, free agency is not as simple as picking the 3 guys on the list whom you'd most like to have, and picking an amount of money you'd like to pay them. There are 30 major league teams, every single one of whom would like to have Josh Hamilton, Melky Cabrera, and Michael Bourn. If you can identify 5 FAs whom you'd like to have, you'll do well to come away with 1 of them.

"Really depends on what the Phils can get for him (especially MLB-ready talent), how much salary they would have to eat to move him, and what they would do with the $25M they free up."

In the land of a million Captain Hindsights, MG is Lieutenant Obvious.

Look at trading Lee next year as hurting their chances of making the playoffs but the likelihood it makes them slight better in '14 and '15 depending upon what they get back and freeing up considerable cash especially in '15.

MG: Agreed. Dealing Lee should NOT be a non-starter. If Phils can find someone to take on the bulk of the contract and offer a great package of prospects, the Phils should definitely consider it.

Pre-deadline, Phils wanted an awesome package AND wanted the team to take the entire contract.

Iceman - Thanks. I would imagine though that there a noticeable contingent though who thinks it is easy to trade Lee regardless.

Not a crazy viewpoint either because Phils are going to be close replacing a 6-7 WAR pitcher like Lee has been the last few years.

Additionally, if you trade him then what exactly is the team built around then next?

Could see why you would argue both point.

Crazy to trade Lee. Interesting poll question.

MG: Crazy to trade Lee IF the main goal is winning in 2013.

Or, likely, '14. Maybe '15 too.

A shorter version of my position could be stated: I don't expect Cliff Lee to be a 15+ total WAR pitcher from 2013-2015.

Now, if the Phillies need to pay more per WAR than anybody else, I'm fine with that. They have the $$ and can be extravagant. The Phillies got more WAR for their Cliff Lee money than they expected in 2011. They structured the deal such that they might underpay per WAR at the front and overpay per WAR at the end. Now that they got the bargain part out of the way, it wouldn't be a terrible idea from a purely cost-per-WAR standpoint to walk away from the deal. A smarter GM could possibly (probably?) find 15+ WAR for that same 90 million or whatever is left on Lee's deal.

And, of course I don't think Amaro could pull that off, so like i said, I don't think the Phillies should just walk away and let Lee be claimed, but the waiver claim did make it a briefly tantalizing possibility for us armchair GMs.

Why anyone would speculate about whether it is a good idea to trade Lee is kind of funny.

He's not getting traded. They have no interest in trading him.

Bubba splits on Kratz vs. Schneider vs.lefties favor Kratz.

Just heard on DNL that the Phils should try for Nick Swisher in the off season.

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

Phlipper: You're obviously over-stating that a bit. They may have *almost* no interest in trading him, but if they had NO interest, they wouldn't have bothered placing him on waivers.

"Look at trading Lee next year as hurting their chances of making the playoffs but the likelihood it makes them slight better in '14 and '15 depending upon what they get back and freeing up considerable cash especially in '15. "

The notion that they would be writing off next year is kind of funny.

They will be doing everything they can to prioritize building a better team for next year.

Anything else ain't going to happen because it would be crazy.

RAJ is schizophrenic when it comes to Lee. First he buys him then he sells him for a song. Then he buys him again for a lot more. Now he throws him up in the air just to see who might catch him.

Is RAJ really working for the Phillies? If he is he is an idiot.

But maybe he is not working for our team in which case he is a genius.

Winning in 2013 and trading Cliff Lee are not necessarily mutually exclusive. It would depend on whether major league ready talent was returned in the deal.

"Phlipper: You're obviously over-stating that a bit."

Maybe - but I simply don't believe that they would sacrifice next year. Going into next year their starting rotation is their core strength. To trade Lee, they'd have to get someone his equal back in pitching, plus something else to add on. Even if they got a stud 3rd baseman, for example, that wouldn't compensate for a rotation of Hamels, Doc, Worley and.....Kendrick?????

Trading Lee would be contingent on them being willing to sacrifice next year. From a business standpoint in addition to just a baseball standpoint, I see that as being a nonstarter.

If the Phillies trade Lee they're writing off more than '13. It would be amazingly stupid, what w/ Halladay & Worley having been injured, & Hamels being, well, Hamels. Still waiting for signs this franchise is willing to blow past the luxury tax limit, as has been claimed.

Schneider,if I were Kratz I'd ask to be put on waivers.Someone is making some very poor choices. Mini and Schneider in the same lineup would probably start a riot.

Good work dealing Blanton, not sure how they can use the $3M to help, but whatever.

Realistically, the Phillies have a ton of money to spend this year. The luxury tax threshold is going to be about 189m. Figure they're at 174m now. So that's an additional 15m.

They can plausibly go over the 189m cap by another 15m or so without any real consequences. Sure, they pay the tax this year, which they're on record as saying is planned. But then in the following year Utley at 15m comes off the books. That again brings them back under to 189m.

So, what does 30m a year buy you? They can definitely contend next year and the year after that.

Phlipper: Yes, chances are extremely slim that the right deal is out there, but that doesn't mean there's zero chance of it happening. The Phils are a last place team dealing with injuries to their three of their highest paid players (Howard, Utley and Halladay). They'd be negligent to NOT see what possibilities are out there.

Buddy Ryan: Luxury tax threshold doesn't climb to 189M until 2014, not 2013.

KAS: thanks, but that doesn't matter at all to my point. Sure, they pay a tax on a larger sum, but that's a short-term one-off problem. I believe the Phillies' brass understands this, as well as the difference between a one-time hit and a recurring tax bill.

So, suppose they have about 30m per year to spend going forward. What are the possibilities. (This assumes Galvis replaces Utley in 2014.)

They actually have more, with Polanco and all, but let's work with 30m per year to spend.

reposted from last thread

Shane and KJ remind me of Gilligan and the Skipper...


Figure out who is who...

Posted by: buy sell | Friday, August 03, 2012 at 05:33 PM

I would move Lindblom to the minors as a starter. i think he has the potential to plug into the rotation behind Worley and keep KK as the swingman-righty in pen.

Could the Phillies have placed Howard on waivers? Utley? Did they? If it's all about throwing crap at the wall & seeing if any of it sticks, those are the first players the Phillies ought to have tossed.

How about waiver claims for Utley and Howard? Phillies should defintely put them on waivers to see if anyone had any interest, especially for Utley at $15M with injury risk. (If someone claimed Howard, Amaro should instantly agree and start drafting the press announcement.)

gtown: almost certainly, i think the whole league goes on waivers and gets claimed/revoked 99% of the time. i remember utley was on waivers about 4 years straight a year back or so.

claimed/revoked/cleared*

The next time Heyman is correct about anything Phillies related will be the first.

Thinking more about the Phillies' finances, I'm inclined to go place some bets for 2013 and 2014. (Any recs. on a site to do so?)

30m could buy them, for example, Headley at 10m per, Melky at 15m per, and a 5m platoon in left. I don't think that's the best (or only) use of 30m, but think about how you'd feel about their odds with

Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, and Cabrera/Headley/proper Platoon added to the lineup. That's a contender, to say the least.

30m is just so much money to have lying around. And they have it.

I don't doubt for a millisecond that the Phillies put Howard on waivers. But there is no way anyone would ever claim him.

Would there be any point in putting Howard on waivers? No team is claiming him and no team would trade for him regardless of whether he cleared waivers. I'm sure the Phils did put him on waivers, and I'm sure any team laughed and hung up when the Phils called to offer him in a trade.

Of course the idea that he would go unclaimed due to his salary was ridiculous. As I said a few days ago- the reports are the Angels are trying hard to resign Grienke this off-season. If he signs you are looking at a free agent class where the top pitcher is probably Ryan Dempster. That means Dempster probably gets a contract somewhere in the 75 million dollar range. If Grienke goes on the market he probably gets closer to 100-110 million.

What would be a better deal:

Dempster for around 75 million+

Grienke for around 100-110 million

Lee for essentially 100 million

Even James Shields would be a better option for a team than Dempster. At the very least he would be equivalent to Dempster.

"Still waiting for signs this franchise is willing to blow past the luxury tax limit, as has been claimed."

You'll be waiting at least 5 months, so there's not really any point in reading into anything until then.

I ask only because everyone was adamant that no one would claim Lee.

Is there a list of players on waivers? Might be useful for future consulting.

Iceman: Not at all. If for some reason Lee -- & yes, it's a remote possibility in the immediate future -- were traded, that signifies to me that the Phillies want as much space as possible so as to continue to avoid the tax.

I dont know if we will ever hear the full story, but I won't touch Hamilton now with this most recent BS about trying to ditch chaw messing with him so much. It is sad the guy has a illness, whether or not chaw is another hurdle for him. It just shows there are ever widening cracks in the psyche.

I've read that waivers is an online tool. Given that banks can't even keep their stuff secure, it should be a piece of cake to crack the security on that. Who knows some Russian hackers? We could send Howard to KC!

Ed: So you're saying you'll disapprove when r00b gets rid of Lee & signs Hamilton to a 10 year/$250 million deal?

Gtown, we're talking about 3m in penalties if the Phillies exceed the tax by 15m this year. That's nothing. They realize this.

Philllies' revenues were estimated at 240m last year. Their revenue per fan is $38. 80k fans over the course of the year -- or perhaps a few playoff games -- easily takes care of that. That's about 1% more butts in seats. (Or a decline of 1% less).

G-Town- all right. No use arguing over this. We will see where they stand at the end of the off-season.

We do agree that trading Lee would be stupid (though I believe if you could rob someone blind, then do it. I don't see that happening however).

And really this is all about the looming TV deal. Probably, just about any expense is justified at this point. They're locking into a 10 year (maybe longer) deal. The cost to cause a small bump in attendance will pay itself back many, many times over.

Jumping in w/o reading the last 200 comments, and I'm not sure how the waiver claim order is determined when teams have identical records. Wondering who put hte claim in on Lee and,who didn't get a shot. If Phils were trying to get Lee to the Dodgers (and I'm still incredulous at the notion they actually want to move Lee), Blanton would be Plan B.

TTI: Dempster is 35. No way in hell is he getting $75 million.

I bet he settles for like 3/45, or 4/55, honestly.

I like Shields a lot. He'll be a good sign for some team.

If Rube does that, he will have to assure me that Hamilton will live in
his mansion and have round the clock advisors watching the guy.

MG- "Additionally, if you trade him then what exactly is the team built around then next [season.]"

This is exactly right and is the reason I wanted them to re-sign Hamels. This team has no identity without its starting pitching. They just solidified it going forward by signing Hamels. Why would you make that investment and then turn around and trade Lee, leaving another gaping hole in a team full of them?

The only way it makes sense is if they get completely bowled over by a team that caves to their demands of prospects and full salary coverage. Even so, depending on what they've got to spend in FA, I don't know if there are even enough quality players that are FA in 2013 that would make the team really competitive. It would kind of be fruitless unless they're bringing in a player (or players) that can contribute immediately.

I still think the Olt thing is fishy. He will now be a major-league proven bat if he succeeds these last two months and in October. His value will be higher and Ryan could offer a straight-up swap. If Olt tears the cover off the ball, and you can dump most of Lee's salary to chase after FA, do you do that deal? I would think about it.

kutztown: What's wrong with Nick Swisher? I actually think he would be a nice fit. Only problem is, he doesn't play CF or 3rd base.

Hugh...MLB network reports Dodgers did claim Lee.

Also, Moondog...Heyman called both Vic to LA and Pence to Giants so I guess he knows something.

Looks like the tarp is going back on?

This is looking like as good a candidate as any game for the official end of the supposed sell-out streak.

Buy Sell: I'd rather see the tarp on the field than Kendrick. Sadly, the latter is out there as I type.

Snap

The attendance is based on tickets sold...and since so many were sold awhile ago the streak will continue. I would imagine that the streak ends next year as a lot of people might not renew season tickets.

22 consecutive scoreless innings for Kendrick & he still sports a 4.20 ERA.

I vividly recall thinking last off-season that Jason Kubel would be a nice FA to target. A .919 OPS, including .880 against LHP, suggests that he would indeed have been a nice guy to target.

You want to see a fan base really, really riled up? Trade Cliff Lee!

Bourn 2012 vs. LHP: .267/.326/.400/.726

Swisher 2012 vs. LHP: .252/.347/.388/.735

One would be a 'colossal mistake,' one would be a 'nice fit.'

BTW -- Ethan Martin ( For Shane) auspicious start -- 1st inning gave up a Hr to one of the Binghamton Mets..

By-the-by, tonight is as much like an evening at the Vet as CBP has ever felt. The team sucks, the crowd is late arriving & quick to apathy, the roster is filled w/ players one neither knows nor cares to know. Add in that peculiar brand of post-storm S. Philly cool humidity & it's almost eerie.

Damn, Nate, I could've done that.

Iceman: Single-season numbers against LHP are based on pretty small sample sizes. If there was even the slightest reason to believe that Swisher's future numbers against LHP will be as bad as they are this year, or that Bourn's will remain as good, I would feel considerably differently about both.

Gotta be able to get on base first, Martinez.

Have I mentioned I prefer Kendrick as a bullpen pitcher?

Touche, GTown, touche.

I see Kendrick is picking up where Blanton left off giving up bombs

It's actually a shame Joe is gone. He was pitching well of late

Yeah that idiot murdered that home run ball. But that's right people on here says he's not smart. Love to have that right power in this park.

That's an extremely charitable hit call by the official scorer.

Base hit my ass.

yeah what a crying shame.

I bummed. My main man (Mini Mart) is not starting in CF? WTF???

BAP: right. Don't even know why I posted those numbers, because I think the idea that a guy should be ruled out because he's left-handed is dumb to begin with.

You should acquire players based on how talented they are, and what they would bring to the team that the team doesn't already have. Michael Bourn is immensely talented and brings more than one thing to the table. If he was a one-tool guy or something, and didn't bring anything to the team they didn't have already, I'd be wary of the LH thing. But that's not the case.

The offense needs to get better, period. Bourn would held the offense improve. If you want to complain about the offense being susceptible to LOOGYs or whatever, that's fine. But using their record against LH starters is pointless. There aren't nearly as many LH starters as righties. And they stink against everyone this year.

One person isn't making the difference against LHP. They're locked in to Brown, Utley and Howard. If anything, signing Bourn would force them to go RH at third base- and hopefully sign someone better than Mayberry for a platoon- but that's it.

They're 35-36 against RHP; 12-22 against LHP. So almost 1/3 of their games have come against LH starters. It's not some unusual occurrence.

I think someone mentioned it, but hamilton's issue is chewing tobacco? Chewing tobacco. Jeez. Any team that signs him is just asking for drama. Does he play football? I'm sure the jets would love more publicity.

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