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Thursday, August 30, 2012

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Move him Amaro even if he gets you a fringe bullpen prospect ala Horst. This team needs whatever organizational bullpen depth it can get especially with the questionable status of Stutes/Herndon next year.

So does this mean he has, in fact, been placed on waivers?

BTY if the Phils had won two very winnable gmaes the last two days they would be 63-67 or 8 GB in WC.

Still a very remote chance at best at the playoffs but would have made the series with the upcoming Braves/Reds series a bit more interesting.

Instead you will be able to officially put dirt on the Phils' 2012 season after those 2 series. Been a while that this team has come up small at almost every opportunity during the course of the season.

repost fromlast thread:

Lorecore: Dropped balls are a problem for sure and so is the ability to throw a runner out at second! Something he clearly does better than Chooch.
The theme on most of my posts is management. I like CM but he is not a good manager for a team that isn't stacked with talent (Casey Stengel was a great manager for the Yankees when they were dominant he stank with the Mets). When the team is not stacked strategy and knowing how to maximize what you have are very critical and that is simply not CM's skill set and we all know that. A bigger problem is RAJ, who is incapable of admitting mistakes (we really don't have to go through them here but can I remind you of the number of times we traded for Lee as but one example). And how many here trust his instincts on contracts (Howard anyone?).
I am not saying Cloyd is the answer or Ruf or anyone else. I just object to the summary dismissal and the instant comparison to Rizzoti etc. By far the most ridiculous is the age issue.
As for my data on high school vs. college? Moneyball has a fair amount of material on that. Beane is in fact a good example of the problem of choosing high school kids. He railed against his scouts choosing "toolsy" guys in high school. The best example was Yukolis who was neither toolsy or "looked like a ballplayer".

Posted by: RK | Thursday, August 30, 2012 at 10:51 AM

This is a repost for Clout:

Clout and anyone else who wants to know RK is the only name I have used for my posts!!
I give JW permission to confirm that fact without handing out my name and adress.

Posted by: RK | Thursday, August 30, 2012 at 10:53 AM

The last 2 nights were the final blow on an incredibly disgusting season.

RK: Moneyball came out 10 years ago, do you have any other sources?

I disagree with you completely that drafting older college players is more beneficial, but I am more than happy to listen to counter arguments if you have any.

I understand that a college player may have a better chance to make the majors, since they have less "potential" to realize as a younger player, but just making the show doesn't a mean thing - its about bringing value to the big league club.

It's classic Phils - play tough against two front running teams and 'build off that momentum' by falling flat on their faces against a second division team like the floundering Mets. Especially Los Mets. Aaarrrghhh.

lorecore I am not begging off can't answer you now since got to goto some meetings.
Will get back to you later.
Nonetheless why is Moneyball published in 2003 out of date? If anything I would think the trend to move to college would grow simply becuase there is more pressure to go to college (except overseas players).

RK: You will notice that I said "bring value". That should include the coveted price in trade value of high risk/reward prospects generally drafted out of high school, that older prospects out of college typically do not have.

Ignoring that aspect of prospects would be a huge mistake, as that usually ends up being some of the best value a prospect ever contributes to a team.

RK: Also, wasn't drafting college players considered the way to go back in the 70-80s? Why do you keep saying that the trend to draft college is growing today?

I believe Bill James did a study in the early 80s that reviewed mlb drafts from the previous ~20 years and said that college players were the more valuable choice - but then in the late 90s/early 2000s he had updated and changed.

I tried a few google searches...no luck.

I see we are putting the power hitters in today, Wigginton, Martinez, and Lerud.

I guess the Mets are going to put up a fight for that coveted 3rd place in the division. Nobody said this was going to be easy!

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Amaro offer Pierre an extension for 2013. If he was being shopped at all, I believe that he would have been taken.

The only motive behind retaining him for the rest of the season that makes sense would be if they wanted to keep him around for next year.

RK: Then why did you answer my response to UBIK's post (in which I included a quote from UBIK) by using the words "My point is..."

Especially since, until that moment, you hadn't made single post about Kratz under the name RK.

Pierre is even going to be more redundant with Schierholtz returning very shortly.

Amaro should have moved him a while ago and taken what he bullpen prospect he could get.

I really liked Pierre this season and hope the Phils can send him to a playoff contender. Maybe get something useful for the future in return too.

lorecore: The HS vs. college prospect debate has 3 parts to it.

Part 1 is: "Who is more likely to make the majors?" The problem with this question is that the answer, which now is HS players, is misleading. The players that MLB organizations select to fill out minor league rosters are overwhelmingly college players. These are non-prospects who can play the game well enough to fill roster spots in the minors.

Part 2 is: Among legitimate prospects (non-filler) in the upper draft rounds, who is more likely to make MLB? The answer is college players.

Part 3 is: Among legitimate prospects, who is more likely to become a star? The answer is HS players.

So there is no single answer to the question: Is it better to draft HS players or college players?

clout = anonymous user name police

Pierre was a great pickup, but I will be very, very, very, very surprised if he is with the team next season.

Rollins, SS
Frandsen, 3B
Utley, 2B
Howard, 1B
Mayberry, CF
Wigginton, LF
Martinez, RF
Lerud, C
Kendrick, P


...Today should be fun.

Off topic:

Some attainable milestones to root for over the final month.

Roy Halladay - 4 wins shy of 200 (currently with 196 W)

Ryan Howard - needs 5 more homeruns for 300 (currently at 295 HR)

Jimmy Rollins - 9 more hits until 2000 (currently sitting at 1991 H)

Jimmy Rollins - 4 stolen bases away from 400 (currently with 396 SB)

Chase Utley - 3 homeruns until 200 (currently has 197 HR)

Cliff Lee- 21 strikeouts short of 1500 (currently at 1479 K)

Jonathan Papelbon - 2 saves from 250 (sitting on 248 SV)

***Pierre was a great pickup, but I will be very, very, very, very surprised if he is with the team next season.

Posted by: clout | Thursday, August 30, 2012 at 11:56 AM

***

So would I...I rather hope he isnt despite enjoying his play this year.

Why have the 2012 Phillies lost so many home games to the hated Mets? Their inability to beat their division rivals is the reason we are fighting to stay in 3rd place. Piss poor year.

clout: "So there is no single answer to the question: Is it better to draft HS players or college players?"

I would tend to agree with that notion since it would be foolish to draft 100% 1 way or the other, even if you could prove that 1 is better overall.

What is the feeling on the likelihood that Utley plays 3B next year?

Wigginton LF
Mayberry CF
Martinez RF

Dear god, I hope KK doesn't plan on letting the Mets hit it to the outfield.

Sophist: I see no possible upside to Utley moving to third, unless it somehow helps keep him on the field.

The Phils internal options and FA options are exactly equal to both position in my eyes, so him moving to one or the other has no affect, other than Utley being a poor 3B.

At the risk of beating a dead horse to a pulp, why do they continue to play Mini Mart? What do they need to see from him? He isn't even an OF and they put him out there. I know we love to hammer him, but seriously, why does he get so much playing time???

***What is the feeling on the likelihood that Utley plays 3B next year?

Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, August 30, 2012 at 12:26 PM

***

5%...maybe. They'd need to acquire a legitimate 2B to make it worthwhile and there arent any available via FA.

This has to be the worst lineup we've put out since the late 90s.

That's one brutal defensive OF. If the Phils had started Nix today in CF, definitely would be strong contender for 'worst defensive starting OF' in a MLB game this year.

So ESPN advertises Harper as 'having a tantrum' and completely overlooks the fact that Bucknor just tossed him with no warning/explanation.

Harper was in the wrong in spiking his helmet but it was in no way directed at anyone.

Bucknor is a clown who like Joe West makes himself a part of the game way too often unnecessarily. LA always way too carried away about the umpires' strike zones & squeezing pitchers. He is right though about what a generally poor umpire Bucknor though is. Embarrassing and yet he has managed his share of postseason games.

Not only fan who feel that way either. Been rated one of the worst umpires twice by players anonymously.

"Pierre was a great pickup, but I will be very, very, very, very surprised if he is with the team next season."

I fully expect it.

Good umpires are the ones whose names you typically dont remember.

lorecore/NEPP: I'm sympathetic to your odds and arguments. I do think, however, that there is worth/upside there and saying there's 'no possible upside' is an overstatement. Even if the plan is Utley/Galvis (not defending this plan) a move to 3B may get Utley more playing time and allows Galvis' defense value increase.

The effect is more Utley and better defense at 2B (provided that's not cancelled out by whatever losses arise from Utley's defense at 3B).

LOL outfield. Why not just let Mayberry patrol the entire outfield himself? You'd like have better results with that than with BOTH Wiggy and Mini-Mart out there.

***The effect is more Utley and better defense at 2B (provided that's not cancelled out by whatever losses arise from Utley's defense at 3B). ***

I suspect any value gained at 2B defensively would be more than off-set by Utley's lesser value overall at 3B.

As long as its Galvis who is added as a full-time starter. I didnt see anything out of Galvis this year that indicated he was ready to be a starter on a playoff team.

If r00b's idea of an infield is Utley, Rollins, Galvis & Howard, the Phillies won't be a playoff team.

Maybe should keep Pierre and put Schierholtz on waivers,0154 at LV.

GTown Dave - If Pierre isn't traded, it is likely that Amaro wants to bring him back.

Pierre's had a nice year and been a great value sign. Really just don't like the idea of bringing him back at probably $1.75-$2M next year for a 35-year old OF who can only really play LF and is a defensive liability.

Harper can be a jacka$$, but he's like a lot of young hotheads. Tossing him last night, however, was a joke.

This lineup is nasty!

If Pierre isn't traded, it is likely that Amaro wants to bring him back.

That's basically what I'm thinking. And if r00b does neither, I'll just be confused.

GTown, expect him to do neither.

I am thinking the same thing and I look forward to a Pierre who posts a .650 OPS with bad defense next year. This year screams fluke good year for a declining player. He's not likely to bat over .300 again in 2013.

Franzke probably had to catch himself from saying "Beautiful day in Coca Cola Park today!"

Leadoff home run by that powerful Mike Baxter.

I have a pretty bad memory and for that I'm thankful because this season should be out of my head by the middle of 2014.

What an auspicious beginning.

LA: "Really?"

Sil, I have it on radio too and LA's reaction made that so much better.

GAAAH

Ya gotta admire Kendrick. He doesn't waste any time, just gets right on w/ being a lousy pitcher.

Kendrick's style is much like my golf game. You can be terrible but just know the rules and move quickly.

With a guy like Baxter, you basically have to just try and limit the damage.

Let me put it this way. If someone told me that there was a cheap, available left fielder who had a .900 OPS, but whose arm was so bad that literally every single to LF over the entire season will result in the opposing team's runner taking 2 bases, I'd seriously have to think twice about whether I'd want that .900 OPS hitter as my starting left fielder. If you change the .900 OPS to a .675 OPS, then you have Juan Pierre.

Phillies were doing great until they ran into that one-man wrecking crew Baxter.

Amaro's infield plan seems to be:

2013:
1B: Howard, 2B: Galvis, SS: Rollins, 3B: Utley
2014:
1B: Utley, 2B: Galvis, SS: Rollins, 3B: Asche, DH: Howard (Assuming 1) Utley is re-signed, 2) DH arrives)

Wouldn't Pierre want to go somewhere where he can get regular playing time?

You'd think that wouldn't be a possibliity in our outfield next year...unless Rube is going the bargain-basement route again.

new thread

yo, new thread.

By the way, I've liked what I've seen from Aumont so far... even though as part of the Cliff Lee 3, he's not supposed to ever contribute to our team.

His stuff is good, nice velocity and a "heavy" ball.

"At the risk of beating a dead horse to a pulp, why do they continue to play Mini Mart? What do they need to see from him? He isn't even an OF and they put him out there. I know we love to hammer him, but seriously, why does he get so much playing time???"

Because of my 'incredible' defense, why else? Well, the pictures I have of UC with barnyard animals doesn't hurt either...

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