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Friday, August 24, 2012

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These are the types of guys you can bring up when you make genius trades to re-stock the cupboard.

Agree with Cole. I like that the team is pulling for young guys to succeed because they need them to succeed.
Also, where did Aumont get that accent? That was not what I expected to hear from the Canadien.
High hopes for this kid.

Aumont is the worst kind of Canuck, a Quebecois, yes?

Yeah denny, Aumont's wildness last night came out of nowhere. He doesn't have a history or anything of being wild in the minors, nor has he had a generally increased walk rate every year since he was in A ball.

Look, let him pitch the rest of the season, and see if he can survive against ML batters when more than half of his pitches are a foot outside the zone. If he succeeds, I'll give a mea culpa, but I doubt that major league hitters are going to keep swinging at his nasty stuff when they know that every other pitch isn't even going to be close to the zone.

Yes, he is from Quebec. I think he didn't speak English when he started his minor league career.

Those secondary pitches are a bit scary for me but I liked what I saw from Aumont's debut. More impressive to me is Horst who carved up the meat of the Cincinnati line up in the 10th. I'd hand him the ball in the 8th without even thinking about it right now.

Scotch - Exactly. 'Impressive' isn't the adjective I would use to describe Aumont last year. It would be with Horst.

In the land of the mediocre Philly middle relievers, Horst is probably king of the hill right now.

Fat-

You and some of the other resident pitching guru's might be indeed right.

Yes, he's had control issues to this point in his career. Does that mean he will next year or in 3 years? Maybe, maybe not. Some guys find it and some guys don't. That's what professional pitching coaches are paid to do.

But to say after one 18 pitch outing in the major leagues that "he isn't the answer" or "he has no future" is kinda ridiculous. Especially with someone still so young.

Aumont's control issues are getting worse, not better. He was up to almost 7 BB/9 in AAA this year. MLB hitters are going to force him to throw strikes, and I would guess that will lead to quite a few meatballs on 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 counts and/or a very high WHIP as he walks runners.

If he can cut down to 4.5 BB/9, he can be a solid back-end reliever. But I doubt he is capable of that radical an improvement out of the blue unless he makes some sort of mechanical changes.

Aumont couldn't throw his curveball near the batters box last nite, let alone the plate, but he sat them down generally pretty easy with good fastballs and a pretty sneaky delivery/release that you usually say about LHP.

Rare to see a guy get into the mid/high 90s without a big long windup and follow thru, he keeps his release point pretty tight to the body.

I'm all for these young guys getting chances and seeing what they have. If we can get a few MLB that would be huge. We could sign a 8th inning guy and that would keep costs down to fill other holes that are going to be filled. I really wish they would shut Vance down get surgery and let a few AAA guys go for it. Just nice to see the org finally brings guys up an letting them learn on job.

Look denny, I'm not saying I want them to throw the kid out of the moving bus on the way to ATL. Give him as many chances as he can handle this season, keep trying to teach him, and hope that something comes from it.

But if I were a betting man, I'd bet that he never amounts to anything more than another fungible nobody middle reliever, and not a central piece of our bullpen in the future. I've seen a bunch of relievers just like him who couldn't control their stuff even a little bit, and they never make it. Maybe he turns out differently, but I'm not going to be counting on it.

I still have no confidence that Aumont can throw strikes.

Other than the massive control problems with his curveball (kudos to Kratz for catching those) and about 50% of his fastballs, he was "amazing".


Also, as a general rule, Quebeccers suck.

On the rare occasions that Aumont can command his curveball, he is basically unhittable because the pitch is really that good. Unfortunately, that's about 5% of the time.

Aumont has potential, no doubt, but I share the obvious concern about his command, esp. on the breaking ball. As far as whether he can figure that out, it strikes me that this issue seems to be common in tall, hard throwers. I'm not going to claim there's any legitimate comparison beyond the fact that they're both tall but, Randy Johnson walked the house early in his career with his gangly delivery. Aumont needs some serious mechanical help but, with his stuff, the fact that he's wild at age 23 is not reason enough to say he'll be lucky to make it.

If Aumont could command his curveball, its a good enough pitch that he could start with just 2 pitches just like Hamels did for the years prior to his cutter.

However, he wont and they already tried that and it failed in both Seattle and our systems.

His 2 seamer and 4 seamer are both good too...if he can command them.

He'd be vicious...if he could command them.

If...

Because of his continuing control problems, Aumont's not the kind of guy I would ever count on to be a staple of the bullpen. On the other hand, his stuff is electric and, like most pitchers with bad command, he has occasionally flashed an ability to harness that command over a month or two. Although I foresee a wildly inconsistent major league career, it's easy for me to imagine that he might put together one or two really excellent seasons along the way. In fact, it'll probably happen right around the time that Papelbon's contract is set to expire -- at which point RAJ will immediately reward Aumont with a 5-year, $75M contract. Aumont will then turn around and post an 8.65 ERA, with 9.1 walks per 9 innings, in the very first year of his contract.

This Kratz thing is getting pretty serious, he's basically become a lock for 2013 in a mere 80 PA. Obviously back up catcher isn't a hard job to crack, but he's basically done it all at, and behind the plate.

Not that there's even a remote comparison, but Cincy's own Chapman was a guy who came up with great stuff and put up a 7.4 BB/9 last season. Obviously, he's since figured it out (and at just 2.2 BB/9 this yr).

I don't know if command is something that is "taught" or if sooner or later it just clicks with a pitcher as they mature. Either way, there's some hope for the kid.

We have had plenty of losses attributable to the BP, I think lat nights Win attributable to the BP was both unexpected and fun to watch.
Did not expect a string of no run innings from our BP . Some of those ugly 8+ era's will come down if those guys do that more often.

After having a chance to sleep on it and put it into perspective, although last night's win was "ugly," I'm resigning myself to the fact that we stole a game that we had no right to win. Basically, when you start Mini Mart (especially against a legitimate CY contender), you're waving a white flag to begin with.

Aumont may not need command. He may be the kind of arm that gets by on control alone. My guess is that if he can merely throw strikes, no matter if it's without command, hitters will have to swing at some very nasty stuff. He may never have to hit a corner at all.

The bar is a bit lower for any pitcher that can throw that hard and has that kind of breaking pitch.

aksmith: Agreed. Plus, he also has that funky delivery, which makes his stuff even harder to hit.

On the other hand, if he's going to get by on control alone, he'll need to control more than just a fastball. I didn't see any evidence in yesterday's appearance -- nor do I see much evidence in his minor league numbers -- to suggest that he can do that. He doesn't have to be Greg Maddux to succeed in a relief role with the kind of stuff he has. But he does have to significantly improve upon this year's 6.9 walks per 9 innings ratio.

Isn't it possible that Aumont just MIGHT have been a little geeked for his MLB debut, and that affected his control?

Aksmith: Worked for Brad Lidge for a long time.

nokwurst: He has walked 6.9 batters per 9 innings at LV this year.

MG: I agree about Horst. After being ripped almost unanimously here (including loudly, by me), that deal looks like a steal for Amaro.

Everything is possible, we're simply debating what has a better chance of happening, that's all.

Curious to see how Aumont LHB/RHB splits unfold. He seems like he has a somewhat difficult release point to pick up.

BAP: that's a valid point, as long as we're taking mutiple appearances into account. It just felt that people were being overly-analytical of one outing.

(*gasp* Not on BL!)

Dave Cameron, of all people, just wrote a post on fangraphs about how Kratz is the best hitter in the NL.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-best-hitter-in-the-national-league-is/

He obviously qualified his claim with the normal stuff, but pretty funny to see even a guy like Cameron recognize what a tear Kratz has been on.

Also, one of the comments mentioned that Phillie catchers have a higher wRC+ than any team's 1B position, pretty nuts.

He doesn't really fit in here, even on a 1-year deal, but I wonder if Juan Pierre has earned himself a 2-year deal from somebody this offseason.

"He obviously qualified his claim with the normal stuff, but pretty funny to see even a guy like Cameron recognize what a tear Kratz has been on."

I read the article and was totally offended by all the sample size caveats.

I think Pierre will get a 1 year deal but it will be MLB guaranteed. He's shown that he's still a good 4th OF to have around...or a starter on a really bad team.

NEPP: What you wrote is entirely reasonable. As such, Pierre get a 2-year deal, & r00b will give it to him.

I'm not too concerned with Aumont's control issues. There have been plenty of young pitchers with control issues in the minors and early in their MLB career...present Ace included.

I bet I could throw a better curveball than that Aumont punk!

Aumont's BB/9

AAA - 6.45 in 57 IP (59 G) the last 2 years at Lehigh. Even with the impressive 12.9 K/9 his 2 K/BB is kind of crappy for a relief pitcher.

If you take relievers who have thrown at least 20 IP so far this year, a 2.00 K/BB ration would place Aumont 78th of out 116 MLB relievers.

Maybe the Phils think he can be closer to the 3.19 BB/9 he showed in Reading in 31 IP before he got called up to Lehigh.

Last Aumont points:

- Noticed Dubee didn't have really anything to save about his performance after the game. Not surprised. Don't think Aumont is up based upon Dubee's recommendation.

- Aumont still a reputation of losing focus and running into real trouble at times when he loses command. One thing I am going to watch for at the MLB level.

- Still mystified after watching Aumont pitch at Reading in '10 and last night how anyone in the Phils' organization though he could be a starter. One of the more puzzling development decisions they have made the past several years.

In the abstract, Juan Pierre would be a great guy to have on our 2013 bench because he's fast, he can steal a base, he can hit for average, he's a great bunter, he almost never strikes out, and he can even hit LHP without completely disgracing himself.

In the real world, if Juan Pierre is on our 2013 bench, then Juan Pierre will be our starting left fielder in 100+ games. Hence, I hope he's not on our 2013 bench.

Good to see Hamels vocally supportive of Aumont's debut. Confidence/lack of it has been a real issue with Aumont at times in the minors.

Basically, Hamels (along with Howard) are going to be the franchise leaders of this team going ahead forward over the next years & a nice subtle sign to see Hamels praising a rookie who needs every confidence booster he can get.

MG: What's more puzzling is that Seattle already attempted to make the starter-reliever-starter again transition with Aumont and it failed. It was a head-scratching move, for sure.

Definitely needs work on his mechanics if he's ever going to command his pitches. He short arms it a bit. Maybe, he'll be the next Ryne Duren. Effectively wild. He just needs to wear some thick coke bottle glasses so no hitters dig in against him.

whatever happened to the notion or rumor that aumont had a degenerative hip issue? was that always bs?

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