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Monday, August 13, 2012

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Would like to see Gillies get a shot (hell, DeFratus, too, but that's for another post closer to Sept...).

Though the move to call up Luna screams to me that we'll see Mini Mart in CF more than any of us would prefer (meaning at all).

DH Phils: So you are projecting you anger at the Phils not being more creative on what they might do next year with Galvis? Just seems strange to me.

Besides, it may be creative to move Rollins to third and put Galvis at SS, but it's a bad idea. This offense has been punchless enough without putting an unprepared Galvis in it full time.

Fatalotti: From last thread, not sure what your response means. I was being sarcastic. We could have shut Hamels down and potentially had a better 2009 performance at the expense of a 2008 World Series championship.

I wholeheartedly believe the Nationals should figure out a way to get Strasburg in the playoffs. A chance at a World Series doesn't come every year.

Any game I see Martinez in CF is one I'm not watching.

If you read the ESPN article, it sounds like Rizzo doesn't think he has much of a choice. Every doctor he says has told him that Strasburg should be shut down. They've also said that it would be worse to shut him down now and then bring him back for the playoffs.

I don't know what the right answer is, but I really find it hard to believe that Rizzo isn't doing what he thinks is the best thing. I mean--Rizzo presumably wants to win a championship as much as anyone. He would have to be really convinced of something to make such an unpopular decision as this.

Again, I don't know what the right answer is (or if there's such a thing as the right answer), but I do give Rizzo credit for making a hard choice and sticking by it, even with the serious criticism that is inevitable.

KAS, I was assuming you were being sarcastic, but it seems there was some truth to your statement.

Hamels was coming off a season in 2006 where he threw 181 IP (across the majors and minors) and in 2007 where he threw 183 IP. He wasn't coming off Tommy John surgery, and he was a year older than Strasburg. There was no reason in 2008 to even remotely considering shutting Hamels down, and to have done so would have been the height of foolishness.

With Strasburg, there is a legitimate reason to limit him. No analogy between the two.

'Cellar Dwellar' series. Hard to believe the Phils are 18.5 GB in the East heading into today or the Nats are on pace to win 100 games (still think they end up much closer to 90 though especially with Strasburg be shutdown for his last 3 starts).

lorecore: I'm curious at how your thinking works. You say Mayberry has been underwhelming defensively in CF (I agree) and so Dom should play CF rest of the season. Do you think he'll be better than Mayberry? If so, why? Do you think CF is Dom's best position? If so, why? Do you think Dom ultimately will have a career as a centerfielder? If not, then what sense would it make to have him play there, especially when he needs to focus on his defense in the corners?

Who's better?

Chapman:

57 IP, 1.26 ERA, 333 ERA+, 167 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.57 K/BB, .684 WHIP, 28 saves

Kimbrel:

43 IP, 1.26 ERA, 323 ERA+, 15.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 6.85 K/BB, .651 WHIP, 31 saves

Does it even matter?

Here's what I would do if I were Rizzo. Shut down Strasburg for the season, but have him secretly training. Announce another pitcher, and then on the first day of the playoffs Strasburg walks out onto the field to start the game. The fans would go nuts.

Fat, I'll tell you what, you pick which one is better and I'll take the "worse" one for the Phillies' bullpen.

clout, you should be a WWE promoter. Genius idea.

The only caveat is that they'd actually need a few fans to show up for the fans to go nuts.

WP, haha. I realized that I typed 167 K/9 for Chapman instead of 16.7. He's good, but not THAT good.

WP: Wouldn't you want to have Gillies at least see Triple A pitching before you bring him up?

WP: They should definitely have a WWE style intro when he takes the mound. Maybe one of The Undertaker's intros.

KAS: No, I'm not angry. It's just frustrating to see another team taking a creative approach to a problem, knowing the Phillies don't bother with creative approaches.

I don't agree that Rollins 3B, Galvis SS is necessarily a bad idea for next year either. As I've argued before, I think Frandsen at 3B has some merit as a low-cost 3B solution that allows money to be spent in other areas where the FA supply is better (outfield, starting pitching). Rollins/Galvis would be just as low-cost. The offense would be worse but I think the improved defense would offset that gap.

Really, though, the merits of the idea aren't what I'm concerned about. It's the thought process behind it that bothers me. Rollins is the shortstop. Rollins is the leadoff hitter. Papelbon is the closer. Bastardo is the 8th inning guy. The closer doesn't pitch in a tie game. The pitcher always sacrifice bunts, even if it's Hamels or Lee. I don't even disagree with all of these things, but I get the impression Amaro/Manuel don't even think about them. Maddon/Friedman, on the other hand, seem to constantly try (successfully) to improve their team with creative, incremental changes that often oppose traditional thinking.

Granted, I'm extrapolating what I think about how Amaro/Manuel think from press conferences and interviews. It's possible they are secret geniuses and have thought about all of these things analytically and come to reasonable conclusions supported by data. I don't think that is the case.

The Generals never expected to be in the playoffs or they would have delayed the start of Strasburg's season and been able to limit his innings just fine and still allow him the opportunity to pitch the playoffs. Talk about an idiot GM!

DH Phils: Is Galvis-Rollins better than Polanco-Rollins?

What do you think Galvis would hit as the starting SS next season?

All for Tyson a shot. Why not? Maybe this could help him get his head on straight. Texas and others are promoting the top prospects. Mini mart or Tyson. The smart BL would favor Tyson. We all see AAAberry and what he is. Dom starting to fill in nice. Nate out with piggy broke. So let's see what Tyson can do.

If Amaro made the same move as RizzonI wonder how the people on here would take it.

I know he has had some issues but Gillies would be an interesting guy to give a look at come September. See what he gives you in limited play

clout - That would be amusing. Closest thing I ever saw to that happening was Game 5 of the '99 ALDS.

Pedro wasn't supposed to be available but game out to pitch 6 scoreless IP. Bar I was at in Allston (Boston) went nuts when Pedro came into the game.

clout: No, I think Polanco-Rollins would be better, but I suspect you could get a good 5th starter upgrade for the cost of Polanco's option that would be more valuable than the difference between Polanco and Galvis. I do think bringing Polanco back is a more feasible idea than many here seem to think.

As for Galvis, I would say something like .250/.280/.350 with top-shelf defense.

Just read that the Phils had interest in Lowe. I could see that as a bullpen tryout for next season. Similar to Contreras. Nobody is going to want him as a starter anymore. Yanks are putting him in pen.

ricky bo thinks AA is adequate training and that AAA is just an unecessary "last stop." baseball makes players spend too much time (4 years min) being groomed, unlike the trend in basketball and football.

"carefully managing" Kevin Youkilis? Like I said, play him `120-130 And who is going to be doing this management?Charlie,Juan,others,don't hold your breath."

Jr - If you would have read my entire post what I said was "It's really not that hard...even for Charlie." Key word here is "even".

What that basically says is that, despite Charlie's lack of in-game strategy, deciding how to play Kevin Youkilis is not rocket science. Even Charlie Manuel can most likely figure it out.

Fatalotti: You are clearly missing my point. I am willing to risk a bad season from Strasburg to win the World Series this year. They should have already moved to a 6-man rotation or skip starts. Anything to stretch Strasburg into the regular season. And who came up with 160 innings anyway? What makes that a magic number. How is 180 that much worse than 160?

Cole Hamels went from 190 innings in 2007 to 262 innings in 2008. He had a down 2009 and then pitched well enough since to earn one of the biggest contracts for a pitcher in history.

I liked Dan Szymborski's take on Strasburg from his chat at Fangraphs today:

Dan Szymborski: Here's the thing about pitchers. For health reasons, it's a bad idea to pitch them. At all. Ever. The process of evolution from protozoa to fish to amphibians to mammals to primates to humans did not have any natural selection for ability to throw pitches.

Dan Szymborski: Well, maybe some cavemen were better at throwing rocks.

Dan Szymborski: But we are poorly designed for pitching baseballs. So it's all a matter of degree, what increased risk are you willing to increase playoff odds.

DH Phils: Just seems misplaced. Not sure why we're already getting upset at the Phils not moving Rollins to 3rd next year even though it's a bad idea.

And not pitching a closer in a tie game on the road is pretty standard operating procedure. I don't like it, but how many managers don't do it. And it's not like Bastardo was just an 8th inning guy. In his first 13 outings, he pitched the 8th inning just 5 times. And as "good" as someone thinks Hamels and Lee are as hitters, it is often a better idea to bunt with them.

And we're having this discussion a couple weeks after Amaro floated the idea of Chooch at 3rd? That's not creative enough for you?

KAS, it's not about risking a less than stellar season from Strasburg next year. The fear is probably that putting too much stress on the arm this year (a mere year removed from TJ surgery, after having never thrown more than 132 IP) might do irreparable damage in the long term.

Clout - Nobody on this blog knows if Domonic is better in centerfield. But Ryne Sandberg thinks he is, and I believe he's seen Dom play a bit. But, hey, you surely know better.

Is his future centerfield? No idea. But finding out now makes a lot of sense. And it would sure provide some flexibility going forward. And Sandberg said that Dom seemed more relaxed and actually hit better when he played centerfield.

And what's the obsession with AAA. The talent difference between AA and AAA is very small these days. Other teams bring up AA players all the time. But again, Clout, you want to make sure that prospects and non-prospects face the detritus that has become pitching in AAA.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I've seen a fair bit of AA ball and a lot of AAA ball, and the difference isn't a while lot. Other GM's seem to work with that premise. But not good enough for you. Huh.

And especially when someone isn't really a prospect, like Ruf or Cloyd, why would you need more than seeing them do well in AA? What is AAA going to tell you that putting them on the forty man and letting them see the majors won't? And as for starting their clock, that's a problem six years down the road. I doubt anyone on earth thinks they'll be around that long. If they're great, we'll all be surprised and they'll likely get traded. If they're not, they'll likely be out of baseball or on the Kratz track to the majors in another town in six years.

There is literally no downside to seeing these guys play in the majors now. Except that if they really stink the place up, a better draft pick may ensue. Not that it's a primary goal. And there are three empty spots on the forty man, as well as Martinez Wiggy and Poly taking up spots. Lots of room to add these non-prospects.

Fatalotti: Pitching him at all this year created risk of long-term damage. Why is 160 innings safe?

Lowe would be an interesting guy to use out of the pen. He was a really good reliever with the Sox since he often went multiple innings, kept the ball in the yard, and hardly walked anyone.

Bet he does a decent job for the Yanks.

Granted Lowe was a reliever with the Sox over a decade ago now at this point. Bet he still share of groundballs though and could be a serviceable reliever.

KAS: Good point, the Chooch/3B thing is creative. As for your other points:

I don't accept your premise that moving Rollins to 3B is a bad idea, and you haven't convinced me. The closer/tie game thing: agree that most/all managers don't do it, I don't agree that it makes it OK. The "Bastardo is the 8th inning guy" thing was in reference specifically to the game against the Braves where he gave up the grand slam to McCann and Manuel's response to reporters questioning him about it. I don't even think he made the wrong move there: I think the reasoning behind it was bad. The bunting thing was just an idea, but I don't accept your premise on that either.

These are all minor points though that are evidence towards my larger point: that the Phillies' front-office is, by most/all accounts, in the bottom half of the league in use of analytics. I wish they were higher.

KAS, young pitchers have their innings limited all the time in the minors and in their first season or two. Pitchers don't just start throwing 200 innings out of nowhere. They usually have to work up to it.

Do I think 160 or 180 innings is a magic number? No, but I also don't have access to Strasburg's medical records, I don't talk to him after each start, and I don't have an acute understanding of how pitching affects the human elbow, I don't feel like I'm at liberty to blankly question doctors and coaches who want to protect a young pitcher from risking serious injury.

And it's not like it's just a young pitcher, but it's a young pitcher who has the potential to be the best pitcher in baseball for the next decade. And I mean literally, the ENTIRE decade.

When the Nats get wiped out in the first round of the playoffs and their best pitcher is sitting with a jacket on in the dugout completely healthy, methinks you'll never see this situation arise again.

Public outcry is going to be huge, when this thing blows up in "The Natitudes" face.

They should have started planning for this months ago. You knew in June that the Phils weren't a factor this year and that the Nats had a real shot at going to the playoffs. They didn't just get hot 3 weeks ago. They have been in first place or near first place literally all year.

They had Asshat Lannen pitching in Syracuse most of the summer. They should have brought him back and rested Strasburg for a few weeks. They would likely still be in first place and now they could bring Stras back and let him go full-tilt the rest of the year.

Now, they will shut him down right when the fans are into their team for the first time and baseball matters most. Natitude, my ass.

bap, thanks for the chuckle about the Sir Alden post.

As the originator of the moniker "Sir Alden Trio" iit brought a chuckle.

BL Trivia question:

Who were the original member of the Sir Alden Trio?

Jr - If you would have read my entire post what I said was "It's really not that hard...even for Charlie." Key word here is "even".
Good luck with that. I'm sure you'll keep Cholly monitored so even he can do it.

Natitude = Shatitude

awh, I believe you put phlipper/lorecore into that mix, though, to be fair, I believe he's added some great levity to this site since then and is one of the posters I enjoy reading on here day-in and day-out. I don't always agree with him, but he's articulate and intelligent.

mvptommyd was a no-brainer for inclusion, but I can't recall whether or not you included him.

Hey, Jr. - ease up, dude. All I'm saying is that "carefully managing" Youkilis and finding the right times to rest him/play him isn't all that difficult. Even for someone like Charlie, whose managing style is more laid-back and not necessarily full of X's and O's.

Sir whiff a lot is up

When I first coined the term, and designated the Sir Alden Trio, the founding members were the since banned 'mvptommyd', 'mikes77phillies', and of course 'phlipper (lorecore)', who were included because of their idiotic statements, lack of research/homework to back up said statements, and general pig-headedness in the face of evidence proving them wrong.

Since tommy has been banned, I believe it is time for the duet of mikes77 and phlipper/lorecore to be joined by a third person to once again make the Sir Alden Trio whole.

As the idea of the Trio and designated members therein was my idea, I suppose I could claim to pull rank and simply designate the third person to join mikes and phlipper/lorecore. However, in true BL spirit, I believe that the rest of you here ought to at least be able to weigh in on who to include, and therefore, nominations and discussion are in order.

Personally, I think Will Schweitzer is dangerously approaching the level of absurdity to merit inclusion, and thus, he is the person I would nominate to replace the dearly departed tommyd.

Feel free to weigh in.

Posted by: awh | Sunday, March 06, 2011 at 02:14 PM

Sir whiff a lot is up

Posted by: coolhandluke | Monday, August 13, 2012 at 07:23 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQB4nAjZIdE&feature=fvwrel

You can take the player off the Mets, but you can't take the Mets off the player.

RAJ should have signed Jamie Moyer for this series simply for the nostalgia.

Pretty tiny strikezone.

Reyes should try looking up when he runs & rounds 1st. It would do wonders for him.

2 cheap hits for the fish and bad strike zone

WP: If Moyer went 8 strong and Paps closed it out the game would've been longer than a cricket test match.

DOMONATOR!

Dom going the other way with a pitch in on his hands (where he was previously pitched to, ad nauseum). Nice to see, but I'm sure he'll be picked on for the lack of power...

I'm not going to miss Mayberry if he isn't around next year.

Mayberry must go

Oh, look, Polly is still alive after all!

I'm sure the Phillies expect some power from Brown.Not sure they are gonna get much

wow great catch by Stanton

That woman sitting with Loria looks absolutely miserable. I imagine she's only there to boost attendance and fill one of the plethora of empty seats.

Nice catch.

And THAT is an example of some BABIP "bad luck." Kratz hit the p8ss out of that ball and Stanton just made an amazing play on it.

Dobbs is doing his best to make us feel better about our predicament at 3B.

no doubt kratz has some power

I love when Jimmy really gets moving. He's still got some legs.

Nice time to swing at the first pitch there by Utley. Eovaldi needed to start him with a strike and Utley made him pay.

Utley=Washed Up

nice rally

Martin in AA dealing. Looks like third straight solid start. Asche and Franco really dialed in now. Future looking very nice at hot corner.

Oh man. Jack's essay saying that he admires Rizzo for 'standing by' his 'tough decision' is without question one of the most unintentionally funny things ever posted on this site. TTI is right to question what people would think if the shoe was on Amaro's foot.

Say what you want about the decision to shut him down- if the GM knew that he had to make this call way back in the spring, he should have DLed him to start the year. It makes Rizzo look one hundred times worse that he's known about it for this long. He has woefully botched this.

If Amaro had done this...holy sh*t. BL would be NON-STOP on this issue from now until Rube's firing. It would make the treatment he gets now look like nothing in comparison. And Jack would be leading the pack. But because it's not a guy he personally loathes (Rizzo), he 'admires' him for such toughness in the face of criticism of his monumental failure to plan ahead.

Just another example of how Amaro's criticism is substantially fueled by the fact that people don't like him personally.

will he drive in a run?

such suspense when RH is up

pretty good at bat

I'd be shocked if Howard drove in a run. He's only one of the most prolific RBI guys of his generation. But last AB he didn't get the run in so good question.

Great Ab by Howard.

Nice AB indeed.

i smell a DP from Brown

Howard foul pitches this AB > # of fans in attendance

Clout- " Do you think... ?, If so, why?-"

It sounds like an essay on a final exam. NOT an exchange on a blog..

ez does it..

If Brown were ever to have an AB to show his power, this would be it. He'll see strikes.

Brown hitting everything to the left side

wasted inning

let the RISP count begin

Thanks for some charity there Dobbs.

lucky run TY Dobbs

wasted inning

Posted by: coolhandluke | Monday, August 13, 2012 at 08:05 PM

http://youtu.be/dlwx5fdBxZY

Good hustle by Mayberry.

Also, shutting down Stasburg is insane. Playoffs do not happen every year. Every team that gets in needs to do everything they can to win the WS when they do get in. If he were injured and pitching was likely to lead to further injuries then sure shut him down. He's healthy and maybe pitching a few more innings could lead to an injury but maybe pitching at all could lead to an injury. Nats fans should be furious if Strasburg is really shut down for the postseason.

One of the worse ABs Brown has had since his call-up. His trademark patience would have paid off their.

It would also be nice to see some power. He's had some very good swings but doesn't seem to have much pop. Hope that hand injury hasn't sapped it for good.

Miss the Phils' defense of old especially in the infield.

Didn't jw lift the ban on MVPTommyd? Unless he somehow instituted it, I think MVPTommyd is free to post now.

Well done, Kratz.
That was a wasted inning by the Fish. Scoring a run is not a wasted inning.

6th guy that Kratz has thrown out in 11 SB attempts. Trying to steal 3B on him is just really dumb.

It amazes me regardless of the managerial and personnel changes how the Fish always seem to be a crappy fundamental team especially on the basepaths.

Yesterday, I was out and about during the middle of the game and came back in just as Erik Kratz was hitting his game-tying homerun. Today, I was working out at the gym & came back just in time to see Kratz throw out a base stealer to end the inning.

kratz displays a good arm

Sarge rattling off his usual stream of nonsense already including how minor league journeyman try harder and play better when they get promoted and that Kratz was buried & didn't get a chance.

anyone else here hate Reyes like I do?

awh: Are you absolutely sure you're not "misremembering." I don't remember lorecore or Phlipper being in the original Sir Alden Trio. I remember the third member being some bozo who defended everything management ever did, and who eventually claimed to be a sociology major who started posting on Beerleaguer as part of a study on the sociological dynamics of Internet communities. I'm blanking on the guy's handle, but I feel pretty sure he was the third original member of the Sir Alden Trio.

my man Juan

The alleged hatred of Amaro/J-Roll/Howard is only surpassed by the hatred that some posters display for each other.

Jack posted a comment about how he doesn't know what the right thing to do with Strasburg is, but he feels that Rizzo is doing what the doctors have made clear to him must be done.

Somehow Iceman contorts into unassailable proof that Jack does, in fact, hate Ruben Amaro Jr. with a passion unsurpassed throughout all of human history.

I love this site.

nobody on this team is more "in the moment" than juan pierre.

Still can't believe a playoff contender wouldn't want to add Pierre to their roster for the final 6 weeks and the playoffs.

Not surprised Hanley Ramirez got booed very loudly this past weekend in Florida.

I can only imagine he had been traded to Boston or Philly. Booed unmercifully if he didn't produce.

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