Game chat: J-Roll maintains Phillies' lead-off spot

Here's a team stat table, sorted by the on-base percentage of a particular team's No. 1 hitter. Charlie Manuel has trotted out a number of crazy lineups this season. But more and more, the craziest lineup is one where the usual lead-off hitter, Jimmy Rollins, lugs his .298 on-base percentage to the plate while Juan Pierre has a .350. [Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[Slocs]

mayberry against a righthander with a pinch runner, you bunt. Wiggy on 3rd or with chapman and 2 lefties coming up - don't bunt.

Charlie just doesn't get, period.

[Jack]

The bunt there was really, really stupid. It makes no sense at all. It's such a bad decision that I'm willing to consider that there was a sign mixup or something. Wishful thinking, maybe.

[NEPP]

***All I'm saying is that Papelbon has closed out a World Series and 7 playoff games overall. ***

The counter-argument: That WS was in 2007 and he hasn't been sucessful in the Postseason since 2008. He blew up in 2009 and blew up down the stretch in 2010 & 2011.

So there's that.

Saying he closed out a WS is no different than saying Brad Lidge is a big game guy because of 2008.

[clout]

Jack: Bastardo's velocity is good enough to get people out. It's his location that gets him into trouble. You should investigate it. It's an interesting concept.

[Sil Campusano]

Seriously, is UC trying to get fired? I don't like to dump on the guy either, but man, I just can't get over how dumb it was to bunt Rollins against a guy like Chapman.

[Bob]

Hate to see the guys take one on the chin, but can't get too crazed about a 5-4 loss to a good team with a closer throwing 102 to wrap things up. Interesting game, too many errors, tough but predictable result. Lots of the losses this year hurt a lot worse. Pound some Budweiser, get em' tomorrow.

[davthom73]

Iron Pigs' John Suomi catches 22-year-old Jonathan Pettibone's complete game 1-0 shutout over the Toledo Mud Hens tonight, throwing out two baserunners at second base in the process. Pettibone's AAA record is not 4-0 after his promotion from AA Reading, and his ERA after the game is 1.69. How about a September callup for the lefthanded batting Suomi.

[Jack]

NEPP: So guys just go from being "clutch" to not being "clutch" and then alternate back and forth?

Just stop. They're closers. They save most games, they blow a few games. Mo Rivera blew game 7 of the WS. Lidge saved a WS. Doesn't make one more or less clutch than the other, it's just the results they got on those nights.

And honestly, if you're going to say Paps can't get it done in big spots anymore, how on earth can you use tonights meaningless game as a big spot? He's saved 27 games this year. That's 27 times he's come through in big spots. But tonights game is suddenly "bigger" than those?

Please. It's just silly.

[gobaystars!]

Of course tonight's game was huge! It had multiple tense plays at the plate. It had Broxton. It had a big hit by Rollins.
Tonight was 2008 and 2009 all over again.
What's that? It's mid August and we're out of the race? Oh, I forgot.
Baseball really is great. Tonight's game grew into a big deal for a lot of Phillies fans. That's kind of amazing.

[gobaystars!]

Charlie just said Pierre bunt was on Pierre. Rollins bunt was Charlie's call.

[MG]

MikeyMiss making the stupid point that the Phils need more 'scrappy' guys like Frandsen and Kratz. Yeah. The lack of scrappiness was the reason the bullpen gave up the lead tonight.

[ChollyM]

"I don't like to dump on the guy either"

Hey, I like it when guys take dumps on me!

[gobaystars!]

Are there 2 bigger dolts than Mikey Miss and that tall dopey guy he does post game with?

[GTown_Dave]

What a sh*t show. And the real bummer is most all of the guys who screwed something up -- & there were plenty -- are ones who've been around awhile. Howard's Error. Utley came up small twice in key situations, & also had an Error. Pierre bunting w/ Wigginton on 3B. And in addition to being money largely wasted (considering the lack of Save opps), Papelbon has turned into a huge disappointment. The only thing he does quickly is blow a game. And them there's Charlie. Once again dicking around when everyone else watching knew his starter was cooked. Bringing in Martinez to pinch run when he's no faster than Howard, then leaving the same non-entity in to play CF. Having Rollins attempt to bunt Polanco over w/ 0 Outs in the 9th. It's no wonder the team has struggled so much. When actual game management is required the man is a damn idiot. He's incapable of doing, or teaching. I can't wait until 2014.

[MG]

Hunter Pence:

An impressive line of .211/.250/.342 with 1 HR in 19 GS so far with the Giants.

I don't miss seeing him in this lineup or in the field.

[Bubba]

GTown-
"Bringing in Martinez to pinch run when he's no faster than Howard"

But, to borrow an Ashburn-ism, he looks runnerish.

[MG]

Another impressive start from Kentucky Joe:

5 2/3 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

He's got an ERA now 7.71 ERA in his 4 GS with the Dodgers and likely go 0-3.

[Iceman]

MG- but he'd still be a nice FA signing for them, like you said.

[MG]

Iceman - Possibly at $4-4.5M a year or so. I rather have Blanton at $4 than KK at $4.5M next year.

[bay_area_phan]

MG: Seriously? Kendrick has been better than Blanton in each of the last 3 seasons and, in the last 2 years, there's not even any comparison. Kendrick at $4.5M is certainly no great bargain, but Blanton at $4M would be an even worse overpay. Frankly, Blanton needs a strong September or he might well be looking at a minor league contract next year.

[Iceman]

Spending that much on Blanton won't improve any team. Good God.

This is going to turn into MG's "Take me back!" attitude with Lidge this past offseason. After years of ripping a player, all of a sudden it would be a great idea to pick him up on the cheap even though he's terrible.

He's got Orioles written all over him.

[abercrombie france]

Pour ne pas être à l'intérieur du comprendre le plus souvent, je suis enclin à n'aimez pas les messages concernant ce sujet progressivement supplémentaires considérez que vous êtes à l'écrire à la mode outre vos moyens personnels, nous avons obtenu de dire, c'est vraiment, vraiment une belle publier de ceux à retenir.

[The Hook]

Tyson and Cody big games for AA. Ruf added a homer. People way high on ruf. I am not. Really like the numbers they are putting up. Franco another huge game. Even though K law hates the philles the other minors guys are high on Asche and Franco. More Franco bc of age, but I like them both.

[Corn]

Face it, Bastardo is just what he is. I never bought into the hype people gave him & never will.

With how shoddy the market is for 3B next season, why NOT have Fransden compete for the job? Has alot more positives then a 65 yr old Polly.

Hated the Pap signing when it happened, hate it still. Guy has been completely misused this season by Cholly & Dubee. Frankly that is not a shocker, they have misused alot of pitchers over the years ( Romero vs RHBs, Bastardo vs RHB, his undying love for Lidge when he was done as a pitcher )

Paps high leverage numbers are nasty ( as in bad ) compared to low/medium leverage.

.304 avg .347 obp .456 slg 17ip 13er ( high leverage situations )

Why does it seem like almost every game they lose there is a very questionable decision that relates directly to the loss because of Cholly? Sometimes multiple decisions ( and not done in hindsight, done in real time ).

The guy has been around 2 years too long imho, nothing is going to change if he is managing next season either. He just can not manage a team like this.

[Will Schweitzer]

Charlie's managerial success is related to the number of 30+ HR bats in the lineup. Between Cleveland and Philly, he has been very fortunate. Had he managed in a place like Pittsburgh or Kansas City, his managerial career would likely have been brief.

[The Truth Injection]

"Bringing in Martinez to pinch run when he's no faster than Howard, "

-------------------------------------------

Seriously? Are we just trying to say stupid things at this point?

And Iceman nailed MG's pattern perfectly. Trash a guy all the time he is here and then want him back because he could help.

[NEPP]

There are quadrapelegics that are faster than Howard is right now on a bum leg.

oh, former Phillie Jason Jaramillo signed a minor-league deal with Oakland.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Get to the Reds' bullpen twice and still lose. Was an entertaining game but, a little more sloppy play and a couple gopher balls from teh bullpen and you remember why this team is golfing in October.

[schmenkman]

Unless someone was advocating from day 1 to have Pierre leading off (and many here didn't think he should even make the team), there is not much to this argument.

Since early May, their OBPs are not that far apart:

Rollins .306
Pierre .325

So unless you had made the decision coming out of spring training that not only was Pierre making the team, but he was going to be leadoff hitter (vs. RHPs), you would have missed out on Pierre's huge start (.396 OBP thru 5/9). There would not have been much to be gained by making the change in early May.

And if Pierre did lead off when he played, who would lead off vs. LHPs?

[schmenkman]

Looking back now I see that Pierre led off in all but one of his starts in April (and 14 of the 23 Phillies games). In any case the fact remains that since early May the difference in OBP between the two is smaller, and Rollins has been the better overall hitter (.751 OPS to .702).

[Frog Legs]

"Pour ne pas être à l'intérieur du comprendre le plus souvent, je suis enclin à n'aimez pas les messages concernant ce sujet progressivement supplémentaires considérez que vous êtes à l'écrire à la mode outre vos moyens personnels, nous avons obtenu de dire, c'est vraiment, vraiment une belle publier de ceux à retenir."

Suce moi.

[Tom Goodman]

Re: Bastardo. Stuff that cannot be commanded is just that...stuff! Roger Angel wrote a wonderful piece years ago on O's phenom Steve Dalkowski, reputed to routinely throw in the 100's. Radar guns were not in use then but the O's sent him to Aberdeen, Md, to the military proving grounds to measure his speed. The legend is he "only" threw in the mid-90's that day but the results were tempered by several factors: He had pitched the day before; he had warmed up considerably before the test began; and, once the test began he couldn't hit the target area for dozens of attempts before finally succeeding.

[Iceman]

Re: Papelbon's 'clutchness.' It was discussed when he signed in the off-season that he has faded down the stretch 4 seasons in a row.

It is irrelevant what he did in 2006 or 2007. He is simply not the same pitcher he was then. He wasn't when we signed him, and he certainly isn't now, which I think is the point. He isn't on the level of a Chapman or a Kimbrel, yet he's being paid like that type of dominant pitcher. He's a good closer, but it isn't 2006 anymore. There are nights when he's going to get hit.

I think Jack is being a little intellectually dishonest about the whole "Well he won a World Series in 2007" thing, but he's right that because of the amount of high-leverage innings a closer throws, he will end up failing in some key situations. It happened with Madson over the years, and it's going to happen with Papelbon. But the fact remains that he isn't that special anymore, and we'll be paying him like he is until this core (minus Hamels) has come and gone. That really sucks.

[lorecore]

I wish Jroll was as selfish as people said he was.

Hustling 95% of the time + ignoring stupid bunt signs > hustling 100% + following stupid bunt signs

[lorecore]

iceman: "It was discussed when he signed in the off-season that he has faded down the stretch 4 seasons in a row."

Please back this statement up. Upon quick looks, its completely wrong, but i'll let you frame the numbers however you want, since reliever performance can be evaluated a ton of different ways.

[lorecore]

Papelbon was doomed to be overpaid, I would argue that he would have to put up a scoreless inning about a few ticks above 90% of his appearances for the next 4 straight seasons to even match the value of what he's getting paid.

Taking salary out of it, which is not his fault at all, he's had a pretty solid year as a closer. All of his numbers are pretty close in line with career averages, which are impressive, but he is giving up a few more hits and HR than expected.

He anchors one of the worst bullpens in the majors, so in few instances this embarrassment of relievers actually can preserve a lead into the 9th, the times he fails to secure it is just that much harder to forgive.

[Fatalotti]

Aroldis Chapman, right now, isn't worth what Paps is making. and Chapman is probably having the most dominant relief season of all time. He made Utley look like a little leaguer last night on that last pitch. Not easy to do.

[Fatalotti]

Also, lorecore is correct. Papelbon is having a good, probably even great season for a reliever, but he's not come even close to living up to his investment.

[jbird]

So is this team "just" one middle of the order bat and a setup man away from being in contention again next year or is it more than that? less than that? If the team signed Upton & Grilli, would that be enough or do they need Hamilton & Adams

[lorecore]

jbird: could you imagine signing Grilli back on a multiyear deal and then he goes on to crumble/get hurt? I can't imagine that outrage, since very few fans realize how good he's been(in both Lehigh and Pittsburgh), that would just put extra spotlight on it.

to your question, I think the Phillies are in contention with a good setup man and a minimum of a top 5 CF, which isn't too hard to acquire. However, that comes with a caveat that Doc Lee Hamels all stay healthy and perform, and you can get Utley for around 100 G.

[MG]

Yeah I trashed Lidge was he was here because he really struggled at times and it got ridiculous at times on here for people defending him.

The options last year were Lidge, Qualls, or another very cheap veteran reliever who was willing to sign for $1M or less. That is what was available and yeah I wanted the Phils to gamble on Lidge instead of Qualls. Both had their risks and limitations. Thought Lidge had the higher upside if he was healthy enough to pitch 40 IP or so.

Lidge completely broke down this year and turned out to be a bust. So did Qualls though.

[Bob]

Fata, I didn't see any replays, but it looked to me like Utley actually had a decent look and swing at the last pitch. But at 102 mph it was over almost before you could tell ;-)

Anyway, the guy is ridiculous. His control at these speeds seems good, his motion is difficult, and it seemed to me like those ABs were over awfully quick. Not sure if he is a fast worker or not, but when you throw that hard and combine that with a quick pace, it would be very hard for a hitter to get settled in to an at bat.

[Jack]

Jayson Werth now hitting .317/.409/.472 on the season. Reminder: He might be overpaid, but he's still a damn good baseball player.

Pretty amazing that the Nats have done what they've done with him sitting on the sideline for half the season, considering he's one of their best players.

[NEPP]

2012 numbers:

Kimbrel: .118 AVG/.183 OBP/.347 OPS against

Chapman: .135 AVG/.206 OBP/.427 OPS against

Papelbon: .226 AVG/.280 OBP/.613 OPS against

There's a significant gap between the very best and the very good.

[schmenkman]

Werth was one of the best OFs in baseball in 2008-2010. Unfortunately for the Nats, they missed his peak and are signed him for his decline phase. But as Jack says, still a very good player.

[Jack]

NEPP: But don't you think Kimbrel has proved he's not a "big game" player because he blew the save against the Phillies in the last game of the season last year?

So who cares that he's flat-out dominant otherwise, you know?

[Fatalotti]

Werth is a good player. Still a stupid-as-hell contract by Rizzo, but there was never any doubt that Werth, when healthy, was going to be a good player for them for at least a few years.

[NEPP]

In case anyone was curious, since 1950 for pitchers with at least 120 IP, Craig Kimbrel has the highest SO/9 among all pitchers. Chapman is 3rd on the list.

Kenley Jenson is 2nd overall.

Very small sample size though and obviously their numbers will decline as they get older/less effective.

[lorecore]

I made a list of best OPS+ against, but i made the list min. 50 IP. If you use 45 to get Kimbrel on....he has a -2 OPS+ against.

Best ever in MLB history.

[NEPP]

Pitcher A was dominant 5 years ago...thus he must still be dominant.

That's good thinking there.

[Fatalotti]

The fact that Chapman has a 2.2 BB/9 (which is good, but not elite), but still has a 7.47 K/BB is scary. For reference, Halladay posted a 7.3 K/BB in 2010, but had a BB/9 of 1.1, half of Chapman's.

That's how good of a strikeout pitcher Chapman has been this year.

[NEPP]

Ryan Howard hit 47 HRs in 2007...thus he should hit that many this year.

[lorecore]

Fatal: "never any doubt that Werth, when healthy, was going to be a good player"

Never any doubt? How about in 2011 when he had a 97 OPS+ in 150 games? I'm sure there were some doubt when he was hitting like .190(i think) after the first month of the season

[Jack]

NEPP: It's not about being "dominant." You made the whole thing about coming through in big games.

Hell, Papelbon had his best, most "dominant" season ever *last year*. You can look at the numbers--you know it's true.

Your whole argument was that Papelbon was a big game pitcher in 2007, but is not now a big game pitcher, despite being just as good or better a pitcher overall. I find that ridiculously silly.

[Fatalotti]

Wanna know what's also scary about Kimbrel.

On top of:

15.8 K/9
2.4 BB/9

How about:

52.8% GB

If you happen to put a ball in play (someway, somehow), more than half of them are grounders. Leads to a .4 HR/9 and a .225 BAbip.

Just unfair.

[NEPP]

Kimbrel is scary good...pitchers simply arent that good and yet he has been.

He's been pitching at a level above even Rivera's best efforts since he broke into the league.

Insanity.

[Fatalotti]

lorecore, I meant before the contract was signed. Also, even in 2011, the guy was coming off 4 years with an OPS+ of 130. I think some of us understand the concept of a down year and regression to the man enough to realize that the odds were heavily in his favor that he would bounce back, which he has.

140 OPS+ this year.

[NEPP]

***Hell, Papelbon had his best, most "dominant" season ever *last year*. You can look at the numbers--you know it's true. ***

How'd he do in September with the season on the line?

[lorecore]

Jack: i agree with what you are saying...but 2006 and 2007 were actually unbelievable. 2011 was dominant, but 2007 and 2007 were closer to the chapman/kimbrel numbers we're discussing now.

aside from nitpicking, i agree that Papelbon can be counted on in big situations going forward just as much as he has in the past, with similar success. He has not show much this year that has disproven that, unless you want to hang on to games where he gave up a HR for the lead the morning after.

[Fatalotti]

NEPP, what's actually kind of crazy, if we use ERA+, Rivera still might have been better:

Kimbrel's in the middle of his third season, and has a career ERA+ of 248.

Rivera from 1997-1999: 243 ERA+
Rivera from 2003-2005: 265 ERA+
Rivera from 2004-2006: 260 ERA+
Rivera from 2008-2010: 271 ERA+
Rivera from 2009-2011: 243 ERA+

I know that ERA+ isn't the best way to measure relievers, but as good as Kimbrel's been, he can mentioned in the same breath as Rivera, but I'll still take Rivera in his prime.

[Jack]

NEPP: Pretty damn good, actually. Numbers completely in line with the rest of his season: 7.50 K/BB ratio, .590 OPS against, only 4 runs allowed (less than May, June, and the same as July). Didn't allow a single home run. He lost *one* game that month--yes, it was the last game of the season.

Just declare beerleaguer bankruptcy and move on. Your point is so stupid. You're basically saying that, despite being as good or better a pitcher last season as ever in his career, and despite the fact that he's closed out WS and playoff games in his career, and despite the fact that he actually pitched really well in September last season, that ONE loss last season in the last game of the year suddenly makes him not a "big game" pitcher.

Now that you've read that, do you realize how incomprehensible your point is?

[Fatalotti]

New thread.

[Former GM]

Whether we like it or not, the Steriod Era is still upon us! It is SO difficult to gauge a Players abilities any more. I'm so disappointed in the MLB and its Drug Testing Policy. There is NO doubt in my mind that Steriods are still being used in the Majors and NOT being caught.
This is making it so difficult for GM's around the league when it comes to suring up lineups because you just don't know about the character of the Players any longer. It's all about the Money and you better make Damn sure where you're spending it!