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« Reading's Ruf chasing Eastern League triple crown | Main | Saturday chat: State of the Phillies through team stats »

Friday, August 10, 2012

Comments

cut: It's always possible that the next Mike Trout is lurking in the top 5. Or he could be lurking wherever the Phillies draft. Mike Trout, himself, was the 25th pick of the 2009 draft.

Just for comparison, inspired by the "magic number" post, I dug up the 2011 final records. The 10th worst record in MLB last year belonged to the Rockies at 73-89.

Using that as a baseline, Iceman is allowed to cheer the Phillies to 22 more wins this year before shutting it down. Might take it down a notch after 20 wins, just to be safe.

Clout: Wow, you completely missed the point. The point isn't that the 9th pick is, by itself, better than the 11th (though of course, it is). The issue is that if you're in the top 10, you don't lose your pick when you sign a qualified FA, which I think we all expect the Phillies to do.

So once again, the choice is between a top FA and a first round pick, or just a top FA. It's like asking what is value is higher, 4 or 2, and people on here are actually trying to argue for 2.

As I noted before, when I turn on the TV, I root for the Phillies, it's just impossible not to, and I especially want certain guys to do well (guys who will play a role next season). But if you're asking me as a purely rational matter, which option is better, then I can't possibly imagine arguing that the worse pick is better. It just doesn't make any sense. And while Iceman did a lot of work putting together some long posts last night, it's pretty clear his arguments don't stand up in the sober light of morning.

Really makes you wonder what chase did. The ball he drove almost went onto ash alley last night. He's got 8 homers and really is driving the ball. With the secret service surrounding him all the time does anyone think he has some sort of surgery or flew to Europe to have procedure done. What ever it was hope it stays.

Clout has been shockingly off his game recently. Age-related decline, or do we suspect that maybe his earlier performance was tainted by some sort of PED use?

Yes, my posts were tongue in cheek. I guess I should have used the /s tag for Clout.

But it is not the difference between the 7th and 15th pick anyone has been discussing here. We all acknowledge that Rube is likely to crash through the luxury tax threshold by signing at least one and maybe more free agents. So, it's the difference between having a first round pick that's in the top half, or having none at all. We often criticize the first round picks of this organization. But they have hit on some very good ones over the years. However, they have made uniformly awful choices when not having a first round pick. Thing Costanza and Dugan. Even though Dugan is looking a little more like a fringe prospect these days, the Phillies have almost no chance of coming up with a player when not having a first round pick. Even this season, they had a compensatory pick when Rube gave away his first pick for Jose Mesa Jr.

I hate watching them lose. I love seeing Halladay back and apparently healthy. And I love seeing Utley and Howard succeed. I even love seeing Mesa Jr. succeed, no matter how ugly and even though I have to walk away rather than watch it. But I also hate to think that two or three years from now, some other organization is going to have a stud prospect because the Phillies won two or three meaningless games in a lost season. That is all.

And by all means, dump Wiggy and Poly and Martinez at the first possible minute. Schneider too. Bring up Suomi if you have to and see if he can play in the majors. And shut down Worley. And bring up Ruf and see if you have a cheap bench bat who can play left field. Those were serious suggestions.

"(B)y all means, dump . . . Schneider too . . . (and) (b)ring up Suomi if you have to and see if he can play in the majors."

I couldn't agree more. Yjr 31-year-old Suomi is a long-time AAA left-handed hitting catcher who has pop in his bat, and can get on real hot streaks, who for much of this season was the Iron Pigs' cleanup hitter. Suomi has displayed home run power in Spring Training (particularly in the Royals' camp a couple of years ago) but has never been given a regular season look. The "conventional wisdom" "in-the-box thinker" guys have been wrong before,so I would like to see Suomi get at least a September call-up with the Phillies this year. Sebastian Valle -- recently elevated from AA Reading to the Iron Pigs, apparently is the favored catching "prospect" in the organization, but he's hitting .136 at the AAA level, his grand slam last night notwithstanding.

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