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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

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"...added 55 RBIs to the lineup since their return."

Somewhere, Dave Cameron is squirming.

Domonic Polanco.

"...added 55 RBIs to the lineup since their return."

Somewhere, Dave Cameron is squirming.

Posted by: Baseball Gods, the Voice of | Wednesday, August 29, 2012 at 09:39 AM

Um, Cameron about as big a booster of Utley as there is, and Cameron has never once doubted Howard's ability to hit for power and produce runs. But of course, you know he hates the Phillies, and especially Ryan Howard, so yeah...

Phils are caught in the horns of a dilemma with Brown.

Either he's hurt, in which you have to question his ability to stay healthy, as he always seems to be hurt. Or he's big daddy longlegs, gangly and uncoordinated after his recent growth spurt.

Charlie's expression looking down towards LF after the play - not happy.

Domonic Brown is toeing the line of bust-dom, what with his inability to ever stay healthy at any level, and his crazy lack of power at the major league level.

Hopefully he turns it around soon, because it would be nice to have a young, talented, cost-controlled run producing corner outfielder for the immediate future.

re: 8th inning double

Where the hell was DOM positioned at before the double? He looked like he was coming from CF. I find it hard to believe that from wherever the hell he was standing, that he could have ran full speed, got the ball, and made a throw home to stop a run from scoring.

He did not look well running over there, but i feel like that had very little affect on the outcome of the play. If he's the one who ventured over to left center on his own, then he is certainly to blame, but that doesn't seem like something a player would do unless told otherwise.

Stole this from a poster on Phuture Phillies b/c I thought it was interesting:

age 22 seasons.
Asche 496ab 12hr 68rbi .329/.368/.486/.854 (A+,AA)
Headley 484ab 12hr 73rbi .291/.389/.434/.823 (A+)

Phils didn't score one stinking run against the Mets bullpen. That's just as disappointing as Rosenberg's "performance." Lindblom nibbled around the strike zone in the Wright at-bat, seemingly scared to give up the longball.

Re: injuries - Worley looks cooked. I find it exceeding hard to believe the elbow really isn't bothering him. Also, what's with all the confusion regarding injuries lately? Schwimer says he's hurt, Phillies say he isn't. Dom says he's fine, but gets pulled from the game. What gives?

Asche had a tougher path than Headley, switching from A+ to AA in midseason. Check out his splits after the ASB. I think more along the lines of a David Freese comp, but Freese was older, and MAYBE has a little more power

Where the hell was DOM positioned at before the double? He looked like he was coming from CF. I find it hard to believe that from wherever the hell he was standing, that he could have ran full speed, got the ball, and made a throw home to stop a run from scoring.

I felt the defensive alignment on that play was suspect, as well. In fact, I think their defensive alignment all season has been suspect.

dom looked slow going after that ball. he's probably saying he's not hurt because he doesn't want to lose playing time.

no point in sugar coating it. i'm a fan of his but this injury business has got to stop..

Fat face-
We're talking about the idea of "adding RBIs" as a measure of player value, here.

I'm really starting to get down on Brown. He is 24 with a 42 year old body. It's really troublesome. And leg/knee injuries with his frame and unorthodox running style don't really make me confident that this isn't going to be something that constantly plagues him.

And seriously shut Worley down already. Are they watching the games? His movement is next to nothing. I said this 3 weeks ago. Shut the kid down. Many of us said it. He is one of the very few cheap commodities the team has and they want to break him? C'mon. Think.

Why is Vance still pitching?

Also on Brown, there was a shot before (I want to say the bottom of the 8th) with Manuel talking to him and Brown seemed pretty much nonresponsive to him. Mayberry looked over at the 2 of them as if to say "WTF is going on here?" Anyone else recall this? I wonder what that was about. Did any of the beat reporters expand on the Brown stuff after the game?

I agree with those who say his positioning on the double was odd. Most probably Wright would have scored anyway.

But he was also sluggish reacting to the ball - maybe just nitpicking - cause I hope he makes it.

Appreciate the nickname, Voice.

I really think you need to call Ruf up too. Brown's complete power outage is even more reason to see if Ruf can even give 50% of the pop he has shown in Reading at the ML level. He can get his footing in the field and in the AFL. We need pop and if it can be had within then you have to see if its possible.

Dom now has 379 major league PAs, scattered over 3 separate, and equally unimpressive, stints at the big leagues. Over those 379 PAs, he has been (let's be honest) one of the worst all-around corner outfielders in baseball, if not the absolute worst.

Maybe he'll go nuts in September and change everyone's mind. I sure hope he does, because it would make the Phillies' off-season a whole lot simpler. But if I were RAJ, and making my decision based on the 379 PAs that are in the books, I could only conclude that the Phillies need 2 corner outfielders for 2013. At this point, Dom is looking more like trade bait -- and not very good trade bait, at that.

My bet is that if Dom was in a normal position, he would have held Wright to just third base. With Dom's arm, I doubt the 3rd base coach for the Mets would have sent Wright if it would have been close, but with 2 outs, who knows.

I think you are right bap. Unfortunately I think you are. So many holes to fill and so little talent from within to do it. It's smelling like more handcuff deals are to come from Ruben this offseason. I still want Swisher as one outfield solution.

The emergence of Cody Asche is a nice development, though I'm somewhat skeptical. I'm most reminded of Michael Taylor, who rose through a couple levels in one breakout season as a prospect, became considered a top prospect, and has now sort of flamed out at the AAAA level.

As a whole, though, the Phils farm system has taken a decent step forward this season, especially in terms of positional prospects, where it was basically barren a season ago. Now, between guys like Joseph, Gillies, Asche, Franco, and Quinn, some intriguing talent has emerged.

When Dom was pulled last week we were told he had pain in his knees. We weren't sure but it was clear last night. We have similarly heard that Worley is dealing with pain, so why is he pitching? Are we in a pennant race? Yes the Cardinals came from 9 games behind the WC last year at about this time but they had an outstanding manager.
If CM knew Brown has knee issues why leave him in to field? With the team ahead by 1 run why not max your outfield to defensive positions. Since I live in NYC I saw this game on the Mets network. Even Ron Darling, the Mets announcer, was wondering what was going on out in left. In fact he was wondering why Brown wasn't at right and Mayberry at left, at one point he put all three outfielders on the screen and showed how each was playing the wrong position . This was no double. It was a clean hit and Pierre or Mayberry could easily have chased it down and limited the damage. We can blame Brown all we want but this once again this was a management issue—CM blew this game.

Jack: The Mike Taylor who has only gotten 56 at bats in the majors? What similarities do you see other than they both had good years? Asche plays a different position, got to AA 1/2 a season sooner. Mike Taylor put up way better numbers but at a corner outfield spot, suffered a loss of power at age 24, recovered it at age 25 but got injured. As far as I can tell they don't have similar approaches at the plate or skill sets. So you just get a similar vibe?

Of course the nature of the beast is that any one can flame out, and I'd be happy if Asche turns into a league average 3b. I guess I just don't get your reasoning.

Trying to push Brown I can understand a little bit because they really need to see what the kid can do. The training wheels have to come off. He is going to have to play through some minor nicks here and there. I have no issues with him being left in. How was he running on previous balls hit to him?

I have zero tolerance for the way Worley is being handled. We know very well what kind of pitcher he is at this point. Having him throw in a lost season with bone chips in his elbow is stupid. Flat out stupid. Unless they want to keep shelling out top dollar to aging free agent starters they might want to think about protecting the cheap young arm they have. You know, it would make sense.

Going back to the game. Didn't we, once again, see Charlie NOT go for the 4 out save when he had the chance, only to pay the price with a loss? Tony the B walked the lefty and then gave up the tying run to a right-handed hitter. How many times must Tony the B flop before Charlie figures out he needs to extend Pap more frequently? The reporters and JW talk about a wobbly Worley, Ginger Brown, a Lousy Lindblom, and a Busted BJ, but this is nothing more than the continuing saga of Tony the B and Charlie. (OH yeah, and a Met's bullpen composed of 5 guys named Mariano Rivera)

Well Daniel Bastardo is the 8th inning guy. That's what the script calls for. Charlie can't leave such important details on the cutting room floor. The use (or lack thereof) of Papelbon is really something else. It's absolutely maddening. I really want to know what all the details are behind these moves. Is Ruben telling Charlie not to break Papelbon? Is Charlie really that dumb to not realize that Papelbon can get you 4 outs? Is Papelbon unwilling to throw in these situations? Did they forget they were off the day before? It's probably a combination of everything.

Even with all the holes and question marks that stare this team in the face the # 1 thing I will still be worried about coming in to 2013 will be Manuel. I am incredibly over the guy.

jbird: Nothing about their games are similar, necessarily (except for the good hit tool with questionable power). I'm just reminded of Taylor when I think of a Phillies position prospect from college who came on and tore through a few levels and suddenly became a breakout prospect. That's all.

It was not meant to be a direct comparison, at all. It was just one of those "this kind of reminds me of..." things.

Tony Bastard did not walk the lefty. In fact, he handled the two lefties just fine. And I don't know what Shoppach's splits are, but you have to assume that Papelbon against the lefty hitter is better than Bastardo against the righty hitter.

I don't think availability for a four out save was in question. Paps has had two days off.

And once again, to harp on Lindblom. This guy is awful to see on the mound. And in the eighth inning no less. Walks the leadoff batter two innings in a row.

The Phillies had us fooled for about a week there. Playing good baseball. And last night, it all fell apart again just like it has almost the entire season. And not asking Papelbon for a four out save was the major mistake here.

I still think people have way too short of a leash on Dom Brown. He's had less than 400 PA in the majors. The list of players who provide above league-average production in their first 400 MLB PA is not that long, and consists mostly of special players. It doesn't look like Brown is going to be a special player, but I wouldn't rule out him being a solid contributor based on 400 PA.

RK: "It was a clean hit and Pierre or Mayberry could easily have chased it down and limited the damage."

Oh yea, I can completely see Juan Pierre getting to that ball in the corner and gunning down Wright at the plate.

DH Phils, you are, of course, correct. Only problem is, the Phils need to try and win over the next 2 years, while Utley still has working knees (kind of), Howard is still productive and halladay and lee are still under contract. Right now, the Phils FO can't feel very comfortable with Dom manning a corner spot next year. They're probably going to sign someone, and he's going to have to fight for his spot on this team. Let's just hope he can stay healthy and actually show what all of us hoped he could be.

No one would have been gunning anyone down at home because it would have been fielded in time to for Wright and the coaches at third to reconsider going homw. Properly fielded he would have had a chance at getting him out at third!

There's no question the Phils defensive positioning was designed to prevent doubles. It's actually rather common with a runner on first late in a tie game. It's designed to keep balls from getting in the gaps and going to the wall. It often leads to bloop singles that may have been caught otherwise. The theory is that it would then take two hits to score the runner.

In this case, the bloop was down the line and it didn't roll quickly which was the worst combination. Perhaps Mayberry gets there fast enough to keep Wright at third, but remember it was a full count and Wright was off with the pitch (and is an excellent base runner).

Of course, none of this explanation changes the fact that Brown looks gimpy out there.

Hamels scratched.

Cloyd up for Major League debut.

More:

Hamels has some kind of stomach issue. It is NOT arm related.

Cloyd had been scheduled to start tonight anyway. He'll need to be added to the 40 man, but there is an open spot.

There will be a corresponding move... Rosenberg anyone?

Phillies scratch Cole Hamels tonight due to a gastrointestinal illness. RHP Tyler Cloyd will be called up from AAA and make the start

For the record: I have no plans to start the Tyler Cloyd Appreciation Society.

KAS, where are you hearing that Hamels is scratched. Phils website still has him listed as the starter.

I am thinking about joining SABR and asking someone/anyone with lots of free time this offseason to analyze the 'no doubles defense', debunk it, and send an a mass email to everyone in the Phils' FO and coaching staff.

Fatalotti: From every Phils beat writer on Twitter.

Twitter, it's where it's at!

In any situation: if Mini-Mart is on the 25-man, he should always be the corresponding move.

Phils have almost no choice but to proceed with the 'Dom is your 2013 starting corner outfielder' plan.

When its May/June and if Dom is declared a bust, then the Phils will have to go to a Pierre-esque, Posednik-esque plan B.

Thanks KAS.

I have no plans of becoming involved with Twitter. I'm quite OK being late to the party. :)

KAS, where are you hearing that Hamels is scratched. Phils website still has him listed as the starter.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Wednesday, August 29, 2012 at 11:26 AM

from every beat writer there is

MG: I'm not a SABR expert, but I think the strategy is pretty sound late in a close game. The concept is to force the opposing team to get an extra hit to score the run.

Of course, it's predicated on not giving the opposing team free bases with walks... but I digress...

Let's see what Cloyd can do. If nothing else, now we will know.

So basically Hamels is hungover and they figured why not give Cloyd a shot anyway.

MG: did the Phillies say last nite they were in no doubles D? What kind of no doubles D puts their LF 150ft from the line?

KAS - It is possible it is. Just seems to lead to a lot more hits than it prevents.

lorecore - Not sure since I didn't catch Cholly's post-game comments. Only heard it on radio while driving home.

Tough for Hamels, he probably was on the outskirt of CY Young contention, but still a distant hope. Missing a start sure doesn't help, although his numbers vs the Mets aren't that great.

Twitter is a fantastic news source, which is basically the only reason I use it. The iPhone app is extremely convenient and following all the beat writers allows you to have all the Phils news right at your fingertips so you're not, you know, stuck checking the team's website for up to date news.

lorecore: If you watch the replay, all the OFers were DEEP, almost to the warning track. And, yes, Dom appears to be swung towards CF. Maybe they assumed with two strikes and a hard thrower, the hitter was less likely to pull the ball.

Okay, and we get to see Cloyd. I'm not sure my heart can take it after watching Rosenberg last night. And is this a good idea? With the Phillies so close to the wild card and all? /s

I wish people would give Worley a break ! ! There are bone chips floating in his elbow -- That might be the reason for some less than inspiring performances ? ? Should he even still be pitching ? ? Shut him down and give youngsters an audition for '13 ! ! !

MG: I think it DEFINITELY leads to more hits. I guess the question is whether it leads to more runs. I suppose it stands to reason that more hits lead to more runs, but I'm not sure it's that simple.

Either way, it definitely worked against the Phils last night!

Re: the no-doubles defensse.

It sounds like a sound strategy, but really it comes down to the numbers and reality. Does it actually decrease the likelihood that teams score in the late innings of close games. I would venture to say that it doesn't.

My biggest gripe, though, with the no-doubles defense isn't the OF positioning, but the 1B and 3B positioning. In fair territory, the least likely place to hit a groundball is along the lines. It's a simple observable fact, and far too many singles are given up as a result of playing to prevent a very unlikely event from happening. It seems altogether counter-intuitive to me.

I get what your saying about NDD, Middle-In even alluded to it. But can't a guy, esp. a RH bat hit a double down the line just as easily as in the gap - idk.

His positioning still seemed a little exaggerated, even for the NDD situation.

Joe D: If Ruf is killed while trying to learn LF at the MLB level, the blood will be on your hands.

overlaper: Worley is pitching poorly. It's fair to point that out. It may be because of his elbow, but he's not saying that. Maybe he should speak up if that's the case and force the team's hand. I'm not suggesting he go all Michael Schwimmer on them, but he could make it clear his elbow is bothering him. It's not unheard of for pitchers to pitch with bone chips.

Also, on Rosenberg. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher with worse command of his fastball and a more hittable slider. We were treated to some of the worst pitching I've ever seen last night.

The kid obviously has a good arm. What is it about the Phillies development team that gets a guy with Rosenberg's repertoire, and sends him to the majors completely unprepared to face major league hitters?

He's not some 18 year old with no minor league time. Yes, he had injury problems. But he's not a kid in baseball terms at this point.

i agree, twitter is awesome. For the older crowd here, do not dismiss twitter for its wimpy name. Yes there a bunch of lame annoying kids using it, but you'll never have to interact with them ever as long as you just follow the feeds of your desired choosing.

Other than the weird conversations that the Phillies prospects engage in back and forth with each other (although Gillies' constant hashtag of #ruffytheballslayer is pretty funny), my twitter feed is as concise and free of lame-internet-stuff as you can imagine.

Its basically like a real-time feed of any headline from every news outlet you have interest in, with a link to more in depth content usually included.

Cloyd's ascent will not be stopped even by Amaro.

Curious to see how he pitches tonight against a lineup that has really struggled (last night withstanding) since the ASB.

I've heard Ryan Howard may have the same bug that Hamels does... Darin Ruf was pulled from the starting lineup in Reading.

Okay, none of that is true. Sorry.

Joe D: If Ruf is killed while trying to learn LF at the MLB level, the blood will be on your hands.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, August 29, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Out, damned spot! Out, I say!!

lorecore, I'm 26, very much in tune with technological upgrades (my desktop setup at home is pretty remarkable, if I may say), and I still have no interest in Twitter. I just don't feel compelled to know about things the very instant they happen. I know I'll always be a little behind on things, but so be it.

I find out about stuff in due time.

Nothing will wash out the pain and disappointment from last night like the anticipation of the most anticipated Phillies pitching prospect since Robin Roberts!

lol clout

KAS - If Worley reads BL, he's probably soiling himself at the prospect of saying he's hurt when the Phillies medical team says it's okay to pitch.

You cannot have it both ways. If he says he's too hurt to pitch well, then he's a wining sack of excrement who should be happy he's being allowed to pitch in the major leagues. If he keeps throwing up stinkers, then he's a failed prospect. The next J.A. Happ flash in the pan.

The truth is that his stiff is alarmingly bad since the bone chips have been discovered. Seems like there's a correlation. His movement is gone and his command is poor. Shut him down. Even if you have to bring up Cloyd or one of the recycled former major leaguers in AAA. But the pen had better be ready for some early exits either way.

Jack: I've had the exact same Michael Taylor memories, as I've watched Asche's season. It's not that their games are necessarily similar. It's that both were middle round draft picks who significantly underperformed in college, then struggled in their first year of minor league ball, then went hog-wild in their 2nd year in the minors.

For the record, I'm still not convinced that Michael Taylor can't be at least a slightly above average major league starter. The problem when you're an unproven young guy is that you get a very small window of opportunity to prove your merits. If an established veteran hits .200 over 25 ABs, no one pays it the least bit of heed. If a rookie hits .200 over a 25-AB stint, he gets sent back to AAA -- which is what has happened several times with Taylor.

Fatalotti: "I just don't feel compelled to know about things the very instant they happen. I know I'll always be a little behind on things, but so be it."

Still use that horse and buggy, I guess? ;-)

KAS, my horse and buggy get 40 miles to corn-feed-basket! Why would I give that up?

If they still believe in Dom's potential, Amaro should offer a significant lowball extension with performance incentives to buy out his arb seasons and a couple years of free agency.

If he takes it; great. It's a gamble worth taking...for both Brown and the Phillies.

If he declines, we shop for starting corner OF and just use the kid as a 4th OF/pinch hitter to get whatever value from his bat that we can until he departs as a free agent or is non-tendered.

The time has come where our expectations should be less Darryl Strawberry and more Ben Francisco and proceed forward from there.

I'm thinking Hamels may have gotten his upset stomach with the thought that Brown and Ruf may be in the OF behind him next year.

Fatal: I thought just like you until last year when the NFL Lockout pushed Free Agency back to coincide with the MLB Trade Deadline.

The volumes of rumors/trades/signings was just too much, and I broke down and signed up for twitter - one of the best moves I've ever made. Couldn't recommend it more, and i mean, its free.

Just from reading your posts on BL, I know you absolutely love to dig into some obscure data research to find very little known trends or nuggets to put things in historical perspective. With twitter, you can send stuff like that to players/beat writers instead of just us dopes on beerleaguer. Pretty cool when a beat writer re-tweets your research on why Michael Martinez is the worst player ever to step on a MLB field.

Fata- If they do away with the no doubles defense, Wheels will have to retire.

I've never seen stats to justify or debunk the theory of that allignment, but my sense is that if you're positioned properly for the hitter/pitcher combination, then going deeper and more towards the lines because of the late innings would only make your defense worse.

When Beerleaguer went on Twitter, I actually formed a Twitter account. But I've never once used it. In fact, I think Beerleaguer is literally my only Twitter friend.

If one of the beat writers tweets some importance piece of Phillies news, I can trust that one of the many Beerleaguer posters will receive the tweet and immediately pass on the news to the rest of Beerleaguer. Somehow I've never felt out of the loop because I'm getting my Phillies news 30 seconds after everyone else.

CousinIT: Yes, with Nix in center!

KAS wins the thread with best explanation of what happened on the Dom Brown ball.

Darn it, Bubba, you stole my Wheels joke.

Sorry Edmundo

Key with Cloyd tonight is to stay within himself, don't overthrow. He wins with great command and smarts. He can locate his slider and changeup, which keeps hitters off-balance on his 87-90 mph fastball. He is also smart, not repeating a pattern to a batter, pitching backwards etc.

Just relax, be yourself Tyler.

KAS: Nah, CF is reserved for Cody Ascheburn, let's move him too while the iron is hot.

Twitter is a useful tool to monitor info in real-time and much more efficient than Google Alerts if you set up the proper lists.

~flashes forward to 8:07 pm~

"And that should be the last we see of Cloyd as Charlie Manuel has just pulled him after his atrocious 17 hit, 14 ER performance in just an inning and a third. Concidentally, that is the first time a pitcher has hit 2 HRs in a single inning"

NEPP: That only happens if Cloyd decides to pump up his fastball (i.e. advice he would get from BL posters.)

In an interview after the game last night, Worley said unequivocally that the bone chips were not a factor at all and that it was on him to step up his game.

I am purely guessing, but wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of old school "Rub some tobacco juice on it, kid" in there. To me, the guy seems like a bulldog who's trying to do his job and pitch through the injury.

Maybe the medical staff and powers that be feel it's OK for him to continue to do this; I can't imagine they want him to make an injury worse and risk his future. Who knows, maybe he'll simply get fixed up after the season and come back more like the pitcher we saw in 2012.

But if it turns out he's been playing hurt to take one for a team going nowhere this year, and he is permanently damaged or ends up missing a big chunk of next year because he wasn't shut down this year, heads should roll.

NEPP: That's pretty much how Madson's first start went. Maybe if Cloyd goes the same way the Phils will have solved their Charlie Manuel induced 8th inning problem.

Ooops - should be "...come back more like the pitcher we saw in 2011."

lorecore, i see your point, but that's exactly my fear. I waste too much damn time on this site as it is. If I were also spouting off my opinions and lame statistical analysis on Twitter, (and not laying off my time spent on here, which would be the case), I wouldn't get sh!t done.

Hamels Gots The Trots Thread =>

That's great that Worley said it's not his elbow but he's not a doctor and he also isn't his own boss. These types of decisions are for the Phillies brass to make.

^

Sadly that is a problem as of late.

As for Brown. They handled him horribly over the years.

As for now though, I wish they would stick him in one position and let him play it. Stop bouncing the guy around the OF, let him learn the angles of one position before tossing him in another.

Hello tfqymuw tfqymuw,
justice for Ted White served...finally. I hope justice still awaits Tina and Richard. proxmstfeyn
good tfqymuw!!

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