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Saturday, July 21, 2012

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The fans are getting disgusted too. Did you notice how The stadium was over 2/3 empty by the 7th inning?

At this point, RAJ just needs to be careful in his trade actions, get some value for the players being moved..

Pretty scared and not at all excited about how the next 10 days could put this franchise back 5-10 years with Amaro, Jr. in the driver's seat.

Chris: Yes, because this is a historic occasion. Never before has an elite pitcher in the final year of his contract been traded at the deadline for prospects. There's no precedent for such a shocking and monumental occasion.
Yeah, Chris, there is no historical data to base an opinion on for this. Only the select few men in suits behind closed doors have any information upon which they might dare to speculate.
Your pretend ignorance is amusing, sir.
Posted by: Will Schweitzer | Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 09:03 AM

Amazing how faux knowledge turns one into an arrogant prick do quickly.

In case you missed it, there's a new CBA that dramatically affects FA compensation picks. In the past, a team could trade 2 top prospects for a rental, lose him in FA, then collect 2 high draft picks with which to replace those prospects. That is now a thing of the past. You seriously think that doesn't change the dynamic of how much young, cheap talent a team is willing to give up for a 2 month rental?

Now that you have a wee bit of working knowledge on the subject, do you think it's possible that nobody is willing to give up top prospects with no guaranteed return in draft picks or re-signing the elite player?

I wanted to thank all you guys for giving me a chance when I was having weight issues. Me and Vic are going to love playing for the Yanks. Peace out.

Phils are waiting until they leave town again to make any moves. Roster won't change before next Thursday.

Reviewing that 10-player Blue Jays-Astros trade, there's some crap involved, but it obviously helps the Jays short-term.

Key man for the Jays is Happ, who shores up back end of their rotation. Lyon is an upgrade from Cordero, who, at age 37, may be done. His H/9 and HR/9 had a huge jump this season and I'd be surprised if that improves in Houston. So Jays upgrade at two pitching spots.

On the Astros side, none of the prospects is MLB ready so Cordero and Francisco are simply bodies to fill roster holes.

As for the prospects, this is a really nice gamble by the 'Stros. RHP Wojciechowski and C Perez are former top prospects whose stock has fallen (both in BA's Toronto Top 10 in pre-season 2011.)

Their development has gone slower than projected and both are repeating their league this season. Perez is only 21 and showing much imrpovement so far this season. He projects as an everyday catcher with good OB skills and doubles power.

Woj is also improved, but he's old (23) for the FSL and his ceiling nnow looks like a #5 instead of the #2 scouts initially projected.

The key for Astros, though, was Musgrove, a RHP, the Jays 2011 #1 pick, just 19 and showing nice peripherals to go with his talent, which includes 4 pitches and a low-90s fastball. He projects as a Joe Blanton innings eater type.

Rollins is a LHP throw-in, who, if all goes right, could end up a LOOGY.

Plus the Astros get a PTBNL.

I think there's a decent chance at least two of these guys will pan out, which would make it a good trade for the Astros.

Chris: Will hasn't had anything that has allowed him to make race baiting posts lately so he has to do something.

Joe: I know the majority opinion on here is "Roob is such a dummy," but there is no chance he sets the franchise back 5-10 years. He would have to monumentally make some stupid moves and that won't happen. My guess is Vic goes and any other warm body he can get a team to take. Hamels resigns and then he begins scouring for ways to built the team for next season. 2013 will be tough but 2014 with the luxury cap going up it will open things up again.

The closest possible comp I can come up with to a potential Hamels trade would be the Beltran trade last season. His contract precluded arbitration being offered, so there was no compensation to the team that traded for him. The Mets got 1 prospect in the trade, a highly regarded 21 year old pitcher in A ball, Zach Wheeler.. The Mets also paid 4 mil of the 6 mil left on Beltran's contract.

This is probably pretty close to what the Phils are being offered for Hamels. There are already reports that the Phils' asking price had dropped before they broke off trade talks. And it's quite possible they renewed their interest in signing Hamels because they realized they weren't going to get the return they wanted in trade.

People can pretend that they have some sort of knowledge about what trade package the Phil's "should" get back in any Hamels deal, but the circumstances are different under the current CBA.

Let's get this party started!!!! Let's make a deal!! Texas lost 5 of last 6 and prince Albert only 5 back. Josh H hasn't been babe Ruth lately. Keep an eye on them they got the prospects and cj said yeah we would want a guy like that! Pretty much going to be Texas or ang to get Cole.

I would not be opposed to trading Worley for Chase Headley if they can get that done. He's a young player at a key position of need. They'd also have him under contractual control for more than 1 season. Admittedly,I am assuming that they'd be getting some pitching back in their other trades. Thier best starting pitching posepcts (Trevor May and Jonathan Pettibone) probably won't be major league ready in 2013.

"You seriously think that doesn't change the dynamic of how much young, cheap talent a team is willing to give up for a 2 month rental?"

It's truly funny that your "ace in the hole" in this discussion is your assumption that I'm ignorant of the CBA.

No...I seriously don't think that dramatically changes what a team is willing to give up for a 2 month rental...especially not in its first year of implementation.

Why?

Well, first of all, the addition of a second Wild Card team adds a hell of a lot more teams in the mix who would make such a trade. Drive up demand and you drive up cost, my friend...and with the supply of elite starters down to two men: one with severe social anxiety and one who is a former World Series MVP, I'd say that supply & demand are most certainly working in the Phillies favor.

But this isn't even the primary reason. It just negates the impact of not having draft pick compensation.

The goal of such a trade is to win now. Getting a sandwich pick is a nice bonus, but it's hardly the motive, and not getting a sandwich pick will not be much (if any) of a deterrent...and there are several clubs who are in a Win Now setting (just as the Phillies were when Amaro sold off the farm).

The Rangers and Angels are pretty safe bets for reaching the post season. Trading for Hamels could determine which of them has home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs and which of them is forced into a 1 game sudden death.

I'll predict right here and now that by August 1, trades will be made across MLB that are in no way dissimilar to trades made in previous summers. Some top prospects will be traded. Many more mid-level prospects will be included, and not having draft pick compensation will not even enter into the equation.

"(the circumstances of the Beltran trade) is probably pretty close to what the Phils are being offered for Hamels.

"People can pretend that they have some sort of knowledge about what trade package the Phil's "should" get back in any Hamels deal"

------

Don't you get dizzy talking in circles like this? If you're going to contradict yourself, at least make up a fake username like so many others have been known to do.

@MarcH You have to love what Worley is doing but I can't see the Padres making that deal straight up. If they would, I'd drive Vance to the airport.

Also, to me, today is the tipping point. While it's impossible to judge an entire season or even a half season on one game, if we lose today (and the series and now three in a row) even those of us most helpful and desperate to salvage the season have to admit it is finally over. LIke others, I'm half-panicked about having RAJ in the driver's seat making these decisions.

I used an actual comp that is about as close to the Hamels scenario as possible...you pulled ideas out of thin air about what the Phils "should" get without any valid comparisons or any actual knowledge of what's goin on except for your assumptions.

See the difference?

Someone said it on the game thread but I think the 6th inning there last night showed that Charlie has no faith in his middle relievers out in the bullpen. Had it been the 7th inning when Worley hit the wall I am almost certain we would've seen Schwimer and Diekman to get through the rest of the inning. In the 6th though you are looking at 2 innings from the middle relief before you can even get it to Bastardo and Papelbon.

I am also not the one saying the Phil's "have to get package X or Rube's an idiot."

I'm just trying to come up with logical deductions about what might be happening in the real world, not the Schweitzer fantasy-land.

No, not really.

You compared a 35 year old OF with bad knees and in the midst of a mediocre season who was traded under the rules of the old collective bargaining agreement to a 28 year old elite left handed starter who excels in the post season and is having one of the best seasons of his career...in an atmosphere in which more teams will make the post season.

Then, you followed up that gem by saying that only YOU are allowed to pretend that you know what should be offered in a trade for Hamels, but it's just plain silly when anyone has a theory that differs from your own brilliant and awe inspiring knowledge of the game.

So, I see what you did there. You made a B.S. comparison in your attempt to look intelligent, when in reality you made yourself look like an imbecile.

Would you like to quit now or would you rather shovel that hole that you've dug for yourself just a little bit deeper?

There is no comparison to Beltran and Cole. Two totally diff players. Beltran is a good comp Player now. Cole will be a game changer. Put on certain teams and they get in. Put him on better teams. Odds up to make WS go up. Put him on top AL teams and with offenses they have gonna be hard to beat. Cc and Cole. Weaver and Cole etc. Lot diff then our aces because the offense will get runs easier then we did

Clout: The Jays also probably like the reliever they got, Carpenter, who only converted relatively recently to pitching but has already shown the stuff to strike out major league hitters consistently.

The age of the player has no basis in a discussion about 2 month rental players. All that matters was the expected production over the pennant drive. At the time he was traded Beltran had a .904 OPS and was performing at a near-elite level. He was also a former NLCS MVP.

A much as I love Cole, he's not elite. He's very good, but he's not on the level of a healthy Doc or Kershaw or even Lee last year.

You can try to invalidate my comp all you want, but I still haven't seen you out forth a single shred of evidence that supports anything you said, except for your assertion that you're smarter than everyone in the room. Got anything to back that up?

Sir, I never claimed to be smarter than anyone else. Certainly I didn't have the gall to make a post in which I propose to know what offers the Phillies should expect while concluding that same post by saying that everyone with a different opinion is "pretending that they have some sort of knowledge about what trade package the Phil's should get back."

And yes, the age and health of a player is most certainly a factor in trading for a rental to put you over the top. Are you seriously suggesting that Hamels would be worth the same in a trade if he were 7 years older and with a history of serious injury? Come on, man. I don't even know you, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you're smarter than that.

Incidentally, you're misusing the word "evidence" in this discussion. The word that you're searching for is prescient, and there are decades worth of trades that took place, both during and prior to the old CBA, in which a rental was traded for a package that included a top prospect.

Whether or not those prospects ever pan out is a different discussion altogether, but practically every team in baseball has, at some point, traded away a star in the final year of his contract for players who were, at the time, considered to be top prospects.

You can choose to ignore the fact that two extra teams will be making the playoffs and that being the 2nd place team with the best record now only guarantees you a sudden death playoff game (which would make an extra ace a very handy thing to have). You can also choose to underrate Cole Hamels, but you'll have to do a better job in your argument than grade school insults and Carlos Beltran.

I, too, am skeptical that the change in draft pick compensation will have even the slightest effect on what teams are willing to give up for rentals. I seriously doubt that a team which has a shot to win this year is going to be thinking too much about the loss of a single draft pick who, if all goes absolutely perfectly, might be helpful to them 4 or 5 years down the road.

TTI - It was a poor decision by Cholly. Period. Even he couldn't defend it with any rationale except 'Worley would get him.' Cholly got really flustered & short-tempered when asked about it.

It typically just means he knows he made a boneheaded decision and doesn't want to talk about it.

Hamels at 6 yr/$142M as a starting floor? Boggs has all the leverage with Amaro increasingly desperate.

Does anyone really think Amaro has a concrete plan in place and an AAV dollar value he will walk away from with Hamels? I increasingly don't. More & More I bet Amaro caves to resign Hamels which really hurts the team next year because of what he has to pay Hamels.

Guess they are going to field a team with a ton of veteran league minimum players next year.

Better check to see if they have that wood post in the shed so that it can be the slated starter at 3B.

Utley's chair the starter at 3B? No range but it stops balls that are hit to it better than Wigginton.

Ok Schweitzer. Let's do it this way...it is my prediction that regardless of who is actually traded at the deadline, not a single member of Keith Law's top 25 prospects from his mid-season update changes hands. You obviously believe they will.

We can evaluate who was correct after July 31st. Deal?

Chris: Your friendly wager is already flawed because Law's top 25 spans all of MLB, contenders and non-contenders.

If you'd like a bet that more honestly represents the differences in our opinions, I say that at least one team will trade at least one of its 5 best prospects for a rental before the deadline.

Whether it's a trade negotiation or a contract negotiation, these things always play out the same way. The player, or opposing GM, starts off with unrealistic demands. The rumors start trickling out that the Phillies won't meet those demands. Then it gets late in the game & the rumors change: suddenly the Phillies are making a last-ditch effort to get it done. Eventually, leaks start trickling out, which show that the Phillies' offer is getting higher & higher (whether in dollars or prospects). Then, as he's up against the deadline, RAJ just caves completely and gives the player/GM everything he wanted from the get-go.

Granted, re-signing Hamels would surely be a very good thing. I just think it's amusing to watch the exact same scenario play out over and over again -- i.e., Howard, Halladay, Pence, Papelbon, Hamels. Once RAJ gets it in his mind that he has to have a particular player, there's almost no price that is too high.

If this 144 mil is correct, I'd say trade Hamels for the best prospect or prospects you can get at a position of need. Then, you can always offer him that contract after the season and lose nothing of value. That's a market contract plus, even for Hamels. So, if you're going to do it, you almost have to grab a cheap prospect from someone in the meantime to keep your budget under control next year.

And, of course, if you allow the trading partner time to sign Hamels long term, you should get at least two top tier prospects from the deal and a couple of secondary prospects as well.

BAP - You are saying that Amaro panics and is a poor negotiator. Get ready to be pilloried.

It seems pretty obvious to me, although I wouldn't put the Halladay trade in that particular group. He held onto the player he wanted to hold onto, Brown, and got Doc for less than market value on an extension. But the other ones? Yeah, panic is his main motivator. And panic doesn't mix well with smug. At least Eddie Wade always looked like he was shellshocked after a trade, and rightly so.

The fact that Amaro traded Lee within 24 hours of signing Hamels when he had all winter to negotiate clearly demonstrates that he panics and is a poor negotiator.

Whether or not you agree with the concept of trading Lee at all, there is absolutely no defense for the way that Amaro handled this.

Scwritzer - Make it top 3 and it's a deal.

*Halladay

Chris: Post a link to the top 3 prospects of each team from the columnist of your choosing.

Chris and Will are having a cat fight, but this will be the most interesting trade deadline in history, I think.

I can see a team with a deep farm system trading a top prospect or two for a rental. But I can't be sure they will. Like I said, interesting.

Will: I firmly believe that Ruben was told he could not trade away 7 prospects and pay both pitchers by ownership. Acquiring Doc was contingent on the act that Lee would be traded to allow Doc to be extended and receive prospects in return.

He blew the return on the Lee trade, and it was will be an everlasting stain on his reputation - but he did not trade Lee on his own - it was the ownership.

lorecore: I have no doubt that Amaro would have preferred to keep them both, but he didn't have to pull the trigger in the middle of December.

It's not as if he was in a situation where it was then or never. He was shopping Cliff Lee, coming off of one of the most impressive seasons and post-seasons in recent memory. He would have found multiple buyers if he held out even for a couple of weeks, I'm sure.

Today's Lineup: Rollins (SS), Victorino (CF), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), Ruiz (C), Pence (RF), Pierre (LF), Fontenot (3B), Hamels (P).

You can't put Howard and Papelbon on that list. He just blew them away before even trying to negotiate.

Otherwise the post is right on, and I said as much last night. The word is out on Amaro's negotiating tactics.

Think abt how prospective FA would feel abt trading Lee 2X..

The 2nd time- and aft signing a FA l- term contract - would discourage future FA's fr signing here..

Future FAs will be more than happy to sign here when the Phils have the highest offer on the table. As always.

According to Cot's, Lee has "limited no-trade protection". That, plus the fact that the Phillies would almost certainly have to pick up a large chunk of his contract, would seem to make a trade unlikely. I think r00b will look to unload position players (Vic, Pence) to overpay Hamels instead. That strategy is also consistent w/ his "pitching first, who cares about the rest" mentality.

Lee and Rollins are not being traded.

I am still amazed that we waste the time weighing whether or not it will happen. It's such clear nonsense that it ought to be dismissed without consideration.

You guys is gays.

Jack: I didn't mention David Carpenter because he's 27-years-old, has a 6.07 ERA and is not considered a prospect largely due to his age.

But he does throw hard and had a great minor league K rate, so I'm not surprised you like him.

If he were to gain consistent command of his slider and better command of his fastball, he could make it as a middle reliever.

David Carpenter can't hold KK's jock.

BAP: "Granted, re-signing Hamels would surely be a very good thing."

Prediction: If the Phils re-sign Hamels, BAP will blast the contract within 10 minutes of getting the news.

If the Phillies re-sign Hamels it will most certainly not be a good thing.

It will be an interesting few days is not only for the potential dealing but also for how the moves will be spun to the public.

Building a better franchise in terms of quality players is not always synonymous with building more fan support.

It will be interesting to see r00b and company trying to walk that fine line.

clout: Quite possibly. One can simultaneously be happy to have a player back, while also believing that the team paid too much to get him. I realize, however, that such nuance is likely to be lost on you, since you don't acknowledge the existence of a budget.

====================================
2013 Phillies with Hamels
====================================

1. Jimmy Rollins [SS]
2. Chase Utley [2B]
3. Carlos Ruiz [C]
4. Ryan Howard [1B]
5. Hunter Pence [RF]
6. Domonic Brown [CF]
7. Ty Wiggington (Mike Fotenot) [3B]
8. Laynce Nix (John Mayberry Jr) [LF]

Rotation
1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee
3. Cole Hamels
4. Vance Worley
5. Kyle Kendrick

Bullpen
Papelbon, Bastardo, Stutes, DeFratus, Schwimmer, Diekman, Herndon

Bench
Kratz, Martinez, Pridie, Fotenot, Mayberry

====================================

Obviously, they'd make a few low dollar moves here and there (think Qualls, Fotenot), but if we're factoring in only players who are under team control, this is what it looks like.

I don't know, folks. If you plug Blanton in to the back of that rotation for cheap and spend that $140 million elsewhere, I think this is a better team. Factor in any prospects acquired in a Hamels trade (even of they're only used as trade bait at the 2013 deadline) and it's all the better.

Good thing that Cholly is set putting out a lineup where arguably his best hitters are 567 and he leaves Utley/Howard back in the lineup like it is 2009 or 2010.

Has anyone heard recent news on F. Galvis? I seem to remember his fracture meant he would be in a brace for 6 weeks. I think that was about 6 weeks ago. Then again he just retweeted a #BuenosDiasCannabicos hashtag, so it would appear he's feeling no pain.

BAP: I recognize the existence of a budget. I also recognize the existence of an ignorant fool who knows nothing about the budget.

And when you look in the mirror, you do too.

Will: I doubt very much that will be the 2013 Phillies roster, but if it is, that might be the worst bench in team history.

Mick O: Galvis has been experimenting with various substances designed to speed healing.

clout: Seriously, man...you're the only person on this board, and possibly the only Phillies fan who is aware of what the luxury tax threshold is, who refuses to accept the obvious.

Yes, you do know something about the budget: Amaro will do all that he can to keep the team from paying the luxury tax.

Everyone on Beerleaguer who thinks Dom Brown will be an everyday CF in the big leagues, please raise your hand.

Anyone? Jack?

clout: he will at least for opening day next year.

Will- if they are going to be pinching pennies as much as you seem to think, they aren't keeping Wigg for what he'll cost.

I believe fans think they know way more than they actually do about team budgets, payrolls and whatever ownership is willing to pay. I don't believe for a second that if Hamels declines a 140 million dollar contract, that means ownership will want to spend exactly the same amount of dollars on a bunch of lesser pieces. But, maybe baseball owners are never willing to pay more for certain players than others, I can't really be sure. It seems to me they've always been willing to pay more for certain things they really want.

I don't know if that means that clout and I agree. But, it does seem to me to indicate that Will is wrong about something else.

I think everyone is using Amaro's past comments regarding the luxury tax to project 2013. I would argue that all the phils actions to this point suggest they have always planned to be over the luxury tax in 2012, which is why they have been so diligent to avoid going over slightly this year to avoid the repeat offender tax increases.

Poll: who thinks the phillies will be over the luxury tax next year?

Updated within the last 20 minutes by the same guy reporting that Hamels and Phillies nearing deal. Just sayin'... http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19627856/lee-doesnt-have-rangers-on-21team-veto-list-hes-long-shot-option-if-hamels-stays

Clout: I said last night that despite being Brown's biggest supporter on here, I was extremely skeptical of the idea of him as a CF. And even if I thought he could be a decent CF (which I don't, really), I am as sure as one can be that the Phillies will not go into the 2013 season with Dom Brown as the starting CF. That you can bet your farm on.

Tom McCarthy on the national broadcast? Christ.

along with mitchiepoo.

On a totally unrelated note, I've really enjoyed watching Erik Kratz finally get his chance over these last few weeks.

I'm sorry tom be missing today's broadcast but I'm up here in Cooperstown kissing Timmy Mc Carber's ass big time. I figure he will put a good word in for me to make the HOF in a few years. After all, I taught him and Harry Kalas everything they knew about the no-doubles defense, the blown tire, the drop a head on it, and the he likes it middle-in cliches you dopey fans suck up like free beer.

Maybe Kratz will get the nod to catch tomorrow's A's alumni tilt.

saint shell !!

Utley solo gives the Phils a 1-0 lead in the first. He's baaaack!

I'll be OK with them winning each of the first 3 series post-All Star Break.

But they need to mix in a sweep every now and again.

Hunter Pence is a stiff.

It feels like we give up more HRs to opposing pitchers than any other team.

For TMac,we're sorry, America

Great.

If 5/120 was too much for Lee, 6/140+ is insanity for Hamels.

And in an entirely unrelated note, Brett Myers to the White Sox.

THIS REMINDS ME OF THE 2010 NLCS

I really dislike Buster Posey and his "i have to sh!t so bad it hurts" batting stance. Only guy I know happy about how this season is going is the guy who owns the nearest bar. I think I'll go see him.

Why am I not seeing rumors about possible trades for Victorino, Pierre, and Blanton?

This team needs to sell any and all pieces that are not part of the future.

How do you like that?

SIGN THAT GUY!

first career homer

Look, just sign Hamels. We need some more offense anyway.

I really dislike Buster Posey and his "i have to sh!t so bad it hurts" batting stance. Only guy I know happy about how this season is going is the guy who owns the nearest bar. I think I'll go see him.

Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 04:45 PM

I RESPECTFULLY DISAGREE

Bat Hamels 3rd.

OK, now that's funny. Now all he needs to do is find a way to flatten Posey in a play at the plate.

Sad that both Hamels and Lee are better hitters than Mini-Mart, and yet Mini-Mart has started 61 games over the last two seasons.

the colbert retort !!

I really want Chooch to go deep so we can find out how many times both batteries have homered in the same game. I'm guessing.. never?

Very professional, that Sarge.

F___in' Roger Waters.

bullit wins.

danke, mick o.

Jack: I totally agree with your 3:42 post.

Trading Lee, huh? Anyone else getting flashes of 2005 when the Phillies agreed to pay 50% of Jim Thome's remaining four year contract to unload him on the White Sox? $22M to watch one of the game's premier hitters average 34 homers a year for someone else...

Yay, Chase.

I wish I could watch the game, but I'm stuck with a dumb Angels game on Fox. I hate the blackout rules of MLB.tv.

It's so you can always watch your team wherever you are! twats

I'm probably setting myself up for some more of the daily Phillies-watching pain, but it sort of feels like the Phils might have a chance in this game.

Oh, the pain . . .

They get a great dp by Utley and then let a run score anyway.

God damn this team is so frustrating.

Newsflash: This team still blows.

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