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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

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Lindblom is a FB/HR machine.

That's why he sucks outside of Dodger stadium. Having him pitch in CBP would be like putting out a grease fire with water.

This is the way things are most likely to go:

Rube: Hey, Dan, are you ready to sign off on Schoop for Blanton?
Duquette: Are your scouts telling you I have early Alzheimer's?
Rube: Your fans haven't tasted post-season in two decades. Joe can make the difference.
Duquette: He'd make a difference in our donut budget, that's for sure.
Rube: Look, we're not doing the deal without a prospect.
Duquette: OK, OK. We have this kid at Hagerstown. I know your scouts love him, Toolsy McToolshed. He runs like the wind and has an arm like a cannon.
Rube: He runs routes that make Dom Brown look like Willie Mays and he hasn't hit a cutoff man in 3 years.
Duquette: And Blanton is a two month rental. Our scouts say Toosly can be the next Adam Jones.
Rube: And our scouts say he'll be the next CJ Henry.
Duquette: Other teams aren't busting down the door for JB. Toolsy grades out 70 of 80 on every tool and he looks great in a uniform.
Rube: That may be true, but the only baseball skill he's got is sunflower-seed spitting. He strikes out in 37% of his ABs and the only walks he takes are to the team bus.
Duquette: You don't walk off the island.
Rube: The South Side of Chicago isn't an island, Dan.
Duquette: Look, Rube, it's 4:58 p.m. I'm sure your organization has the kind of coaching that can bring out the best in Toolsy. In fact, he was recommended to us by a guy who played in your organization, Jeff Jackson.
Rube: I'm not surprised.
Duquette: We'll pay half of Blanton's salary, if you'll kick in $100k toward the post-game spreads. Deal?
Rube: You drive a hard bargain, Dan, but we have a deal.

Make that "3:58 p.m."

Purdue.

Trading Vic might just make everything worse. Our outfield D will suffer dramatically the rest of the season but I'm also worried we will sign him for a Rollins-like deal and end up keeping him for 2-3 years too long.

One sidenote.

Purdue = College in Indiana

Perdue = chicken and a former PF for the Chicago Bulls.

High fly ball rate? pffffft. What will that matter in cavernous Citizens Bank Park?

Lindblom...1.440 OPS in Coors field for his career. Do they even take him on road trips there?

I set the Over/Under on number of appearances before Lindblom becomes known, forever & always, as "LindBomb" at 2.

LindBomb...that's awesome.

The Dodgers could become the NL favorites, after today.

They have done a terrific job in the last few weeks.

Of course everyone will hate this deal because, you know, Amaro made it.

The fact is this guy immediately becomes the second best arm in our bullpen (though admittedly, that's a low bar).

I was thinking "LindBlow" myself.

LindBoom also works.

Why wait? LindBomb it is..

Iceman, you're the second best arm in the bullpen right now and you aren't even in it.

Yeah, I vote on Lindbomb.

38% GB rate. Career 4.58 ERA on the road.

You think Ruben will include cash too to make the deal even dumber?

I might have rather had Jared Hughes from the Pirates and surely Brad Lincoln.

If the Phils are desperate to stay under the salary cap this year, moving Vic and the over $3M he is over yet and Blanton ($2.8M) would go a long way to making sure that happens.

I'm glad Victorino can potentially net some MLB talent. It seems like it would have made sense to deal him for a bunch of sub-AA questions marks, or anything really, since there is not much of an argument for keeping him at this point. A decent 'pen option makes 2013 seem a little rosier, at least in theory, and might soften the rest of the 2012 games that we are condemned to watch.

The bright side is LindBomb will help mitigate the loss of Blanton's home runs allowed.

Heyman says Lee stays put. Blanton to O's and Vic to Dodgers. Says Reds have lost interest in Pierre. Does he really know? Guess everyone will find out by 4.

Why the f is Ruben being stingy about Pierre? Take what you can get for him you idiot.

The trade deadline has already been a success. It produced Beerleaguer fake dialogue out of the unlikeliest source in Beerleaguer history. And good fake dialogue, at that.

Juan Pierre=2013 Starting CF.

Josh Lindblom. Already sounds like the answer to a trivia question.

Well....Pierre HAS been a bright spot this year. I could see bringing him back next season for the right price and the right role....especially if Vic and then Pence is traded.

NEPP: And 2014. And 2015.

***And good fake dialogue, at that.***

I was thinnking the same thing...makes me wonder if that's even clout.

How is this team better with Lindblom over Vic?

If Pierre starts in center next year I don't even know...I just don't even know.

Rube will trade Vic and Pence today and announce Pierre's 3 year, $24 million extension tomorrow...with a vesting option for 2016.

Whine: It's not about getting better. It's about dumping salary to pay for Hamels.

They sure are unloading rube u always are a step ahead.

I've been predicting Pierre will stick for awhile now. Just figured he'd remain in LF. Still might. Dom has been playing CF some, no?

How many times will I scream today, I wonder? First scream came at the idea of trading Vic for a reliever prone to the long ball and walks.

Yeah, that's just what we need in our BP. Another ineffective reliever.

Honest question for those of you who know more about him than I do.

LindBomb seems like a pretty low return on Vic, no? His numbers don't inspire any confidence, especially moving from Dodger Stadium to CBP. Are his numbers this year an outlier from what he did in college and in the minors? Is he still considered "raw" and could possibly turn around his FB rate? Or is he a flyball pitcher? If it's the latter, then I'm not thrilled about this potential deal.

The team is not better trading Vic for this clown. RAJ didn't replace Howard when he went down. I have no faith that he'll do the right things today. Improving the team for '13? No way! Just dumping salary to get under the cap, while helping other teams.

Said this in the previous thread but it bears repeating. The truly fun part of a Victorino deal will be the subsequent moves made by Ruben to make sure Brown isn't promoted this year.

2012 Phillies with a worse HR/9 than Josh Lindblom:

Chad Qualls
Brian Sanches
BJ Rosenberg

Lindblom HAS to be better than Chad Qualls, right?

Pretty hard to sell to a contender and get a Major League player back in return. And a prospect. And if the Dodgers cover the rest of the salary, Amaro will have done what he wanted here.

Hmmm. Trading 2 of the 3 free agents after most teams have made their trades has insured us as little return as possible. I love the people arguing that we need to hang on to these guys. Come one, we want to get something that works now.

If trading Vic and Blanton, means all out sell mode. I guess we will never have to worry about rebuilding. I would add Polly, Wiggy, pierre and Pence to the sell list but I guess wiggy and Polly will be key cogs in the non-competitive team of 2013

Ha! NEPP - We're thinking the same way. And I forgot about that stiff Sanches.

Nobody is trading for Polly with him on the DL.

We couldn't trade Wiggy a week ago because we were still "in it" supposedly...now nobody wants him.

Lindblom might not be good, but for a 2 month rental, you could do worse - especially when it is clear that the goal is to dump salary.

I love the chain of thought that Amaro has no plan. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. But maybe- and more likely- is that he had a plan and through circumstances he had to readjust what that plan was and make moves to cover that.

I'd rather he did that then be a GM that came in with a plan in 2009 and held steady on that regardless of what is happening in July of 2012.

The truly fun part of a Victorino deal will be the subsequent moves made by Ruben to make sure Brown isn't promoted this year.

If Vic is traded I predict the Phillies will surprise us all & call Brown up right away ... only to have Charlie find a way to only use him about twice a week, one of those times as a PH.

The Phillies are going to have to make their big move in the off-season. Lee for Olt was the kind of move that would have fundamentally changed the look of the team, giving us one new everyday starter in 2013 & the money to find another one. Once that fell through, it wasn't realistic to expect stiffs like Blanton, Pierre, Wigginton & 2 months of Vic in his worst season to land us anything that would meaningfully change the complexion of the team. And, beyond trading away the free agents to be, any move which RAJ makes at this point would be far more likely to make things worse than to fix them.

If we trade Vic, the OF will be

LF: Nix/Pierre
CF: Mayberry/Pierre
RF: Pence

Brown will get 3 PA a week in a PH role and 2 of those 3 will end up being against LHP as the opposing manager outwits Cholly.

We all know that will be how it goes.

5.32 era on the road?

Oh geez, here we go.

Well GTown if they do actually call up Brown Manuel will use him because he has always liked him.

Ugh NEPP, you are so right and it annoys me to no end.

I still wouldn't bring up Brown. Let him keep playing at Triple-A. Bring up a utility outfielder like Kyle Hudson for defense.

Isn't the point here just to get under the penalty (tax) for 2012 so that we don't get double penalized for 2013? Anyone know how much more besides Vic and Blanton we need to shed to get under for 2012? We get SOMETHING back for Vic, might not be much, but it's a ML reliever, and given how much we all say relievers are like lightening-in-a-bottle, etc., having another one who is cheap and controlled for the next few years is acceptable.

I think the objective here is simple, just shed enough so you don't have to pay the luxury tax this year, then line up the best team for next year and see what happens. If we struggle again, then repeat the sale next year but with other players (Pence, Utley, etc.) so we can start fresh again in 2014. It seems like the logical choice, given the number of large, long term contracts we have.

I mean, did people really want us to dismantle now? We're locked into this cycle for a few more years, I think. The alternative would have been trading away people like Howard, Utley, Hamels Rollins, BEFORE signing them to long-term deals for cheap talent. (And I'm not saying that wouldn't have been the right strategy, just that we clearly didn't choose it, so why would we abruptly change it now.)

Lots of room for discussion about what the right path should have been, but I don't get the hand-wringing over what we're doing now.

How does keeping him in AAA tell us if he can play in the Majors?

He'll be 25 next year, its time to sh!t or get off the pot with him.

Jason Pridie will be called up.

Weitzel, really?

NEPP: Just wait. r00b will then unload Pence for prospects in the off-season, leaving an OF of Pierre, Brown, Nix & Mayberry ... but at least they'll avoid the luxury tax!

bap - legitimate #1 SPs don't hit the market very frequently, and after Greinke went to LA Lee was the only one (supposedly) available.
From what I read, the Rangers didn't want to give up Olt and wanted the Phils to kick in as much as half of Lee's salary. If that is true, trading Lee would have been a huge mistake. I can't blame Amaro for dropping out of those trade talks.

Not calling up Brown just tells me that the front office will want to just keep using the free agent pool and overpay for declining older players instead of giving an in-house young, cost-controlled player a chance. A chance in an incredibly lost season.

This team's biggest problem was RAJ's horrible off season before 2012. But, if the alternative is to trading Victorino for a marginal reliever is letting him go for nothing at the end of the season, what should he do? And the reason they won't trade Polly is because nobody wants him because he's injured.

If Vic is gone, it's time for Brown to sink or swim at the ML-level. As long as he doesn't fall flat on his face in a 2-month audition this year, pencil him in to start in 2013 and see what you've got...keeping him in AAA accomplishes nothing. We know he can hit minor-league pitching.

When is Polanco going to be back? He could still be moved in August.

"Pretty hard to sell to a contender and get a Major League player back in return. And a prospect. And if the Dodgers cover the rest of the salary, Amaro will have done what he wanted here."

A refreshingly sane perspective in this thread.

Should have expected this reaction, but people are really completely overestimating what we should be getting for a rental for Vic. There's a reason the Pirates laughed at us when we asked for Brad Lincoln.

Exactly Chris. Are flyballs vastly different in the majors? Are we worried about him misplaying a ball and losing a game? Last time I checked they've been doing that fairly well since April. Get him up here. Enough already.

Chris: It's quite possible I'm biased here, but if that's true the Rangers seem kind of delusional. Either they want another top-tier SP, or they don't ... & if they do, they ought to be willing to pay for it.

Per Gelb, about Lindblom:

He leads all major-league relievers with nine home runs allowed in 2012. Opponents are hitting .241 against him. Lindblom has permitted 38 percent of his inherited runners to score. The league average is 28 percent.

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Reports_Phillies_nearing_deal_with_Dodgers_for_Shane_Victorino.html#ixzz22DEPjipZ

Chris: I didn't say it would have been a good move. I can't say that one way or the other; it really depends on the particulars. I'm just saying it would have been the type of move that significantly altered the look of the 2013 roster. Trading Blanton, Pierre, and 2 months of Vic will not.

Iceman, I don't think anyone on here is expecting this massive diamond studded return for Victorino but you can't say that Lindblom isn't laughable because he is essentially the same arm that is already in this craptastic bullpen.

NEPP - I am afraid you are right. JW - it is best time to see what Brown can do. No pressure, play him everyday and see if he has the potential.

RE Pence, we won't get more for Pence in offseason and he is too undisciplined. That spreads.

***He leads all major-league relievers with nine home runs allowed in 2012. Opponents are hitting .241 against him. Lindblom has permitted 38 percent of his inherited runners to score. The league average is 28 percent.***

He should fit right in then.

Look on the bright side, everyone: Vic leaving would mean none of us has to worry about f*cking MMA appearances becoming a distraction!

bap - agreed on that point. But I'm not sure Amaro really wants to significantly alter the 2013 roster. It seems like they've adopted the mindset that the injuries were just too much to overcome this year, and with some roster tweaking they can compete again in 2013. So unless you get great value back on a big trade like Lee you're cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Maybe Ruben's way of thinking is "hey I'd rather have this guy Lindblom because at least he is already in the majors. Lord knows we can't develop a bullpen arm in our system. Maybe the Dodgers minor league staff taught him something."

Don't get the urgency with Brown. 25 next season makes him basically the same age as Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino when the Phils turned them loose. Younger than Chooch. If they feel Brown is an option for center field next season, let him play August in LV. Need to see consistency. Then call him up in September. That's probably the most logical logistically, too.

Could be wrong, but I don't see the urgency.

Iceman & bud, I hear you. And I do need to remind myself that we have a goal of shedding payroll now that we're non-competitive, and that we'd gain nothing for letting Vic walk at the end of the year.

It's still not fun.

The Rangers are kinda in a crappy situation. They really want to win a WS but injuries have decimated their pitching. They know this is a great chance for them but at the same time, they dont want to mortgage their future. They could be very competitive for the next 5-10 years given their core and great farm system...or they could go all in in 2012 before losing Hamilton & Napoli in Free Agency.

"How does keeping him in AAA tell us if he can play in the Majors?"

Chances are that if he doesn't perform well in the upper minors, he won't do well in the majors.

How would you evaluate his body of work in the upper minors?

LindBomb seems like a pretty low return on Vic, no?

What are we using to evaluate what a good return on Vic would be? Lindblom was a top 10 BA organizational prospect. They're not getting any of the solid young guys in their current pen (for obvious reasons); Vic isn't worth Zach Lee or Allen Webster (starters); rest of their guys are a ways away.

Would you rather have Withrow? The draft pick? Phils don't need that pick right now.

What is Vic really worth?

Let's all remember that last September was also a great non-pressure situation for Dom to play in but where was he? Oh that's right, he was sent down. He would have totally blew that 12 game lead they had.

Are his numbers this year an outlier from what he did in college and in the minors? Is he still considered "raw" and could possibly turn around his FB rate? Or is he a flyball pitcher?

__________________________________________

Looking at the numbers throughout the minors you could easily make the case that quite a few of his numbers are outliers.

Looking at the seasons his HR/9 look like this:

2008- (A/AA)- .31---34 IP
2009- (AA/AAA)- .66- 96.1 IP
2010- (AAA)- 1.14- 95 IP
2011- (AA)- .64- 42.1
2011- (MLB)- 0.00----29.2 IP
2012- (MLB)- 1.70---47.2 IP

His ground ball rate in the majors went from 27.8% last year to 38% this year. Oddly enough his fly ball rate has dropped while the HR/FB% has skyrocketed. His walks need to come down though and he does have the capability to miss bats with a ~8.30 K/9 in the majors. He also this season so far has left almost 94% of runners on base.

I know no matter what we get for Vic people won't be happy but Lindblom is not a bad pick-up. I'd be interested to see what the other player would be- especially if it is Gould like like people mentioned. However, for 2 months of Vic we would be getting back a 25 year old bullpen piece who would not be arb eligible until 2015 and under team control until 2018. Really can't argue with that too much.

Brown is a .920 OPS hitter in AA and an .808 OPS hitter in AAA now.

Chris: It's quite possible I'm biased here, but if that's true the Rangers seem kind of delusional. Either they want another top-tier SP, or they don't ... & if they do, they ought to be willing to pay for it.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Judging from everything I've read all year, the Rangers want to have their cake and eat it too. They've adamantly refused to part with their top minor-league talent in a trade for a #1 SP rental, and from the Lee talks it looks like they're not willing to pony up for a long-term ace, either. I'm guessing they thought they could take advantage of the Phils' desperation to make a splash and re-tool, along with Lee's struggles this year, and buy really low on him...and Amaro said "thanks but no thanks." Can't blame him.

I hear you Weitzel but the urgency is that we need to see what we have in a young at once highly heralded prospect. And we really need to see it because a) the team is lining up for AARP cards and being paid handsomely to do so and b) the season is over.

If there was ever a time to give a prospect an extended look, it would be the final 2 months of a lost season.

Just saying: be careful. Phillies have put Brown in bad spots twice before and he regressed.

Gelb: "Domonic Brown has been scratched from triple-A Lehigh Valley's lineup for noon game. He'll be coming up."

As for money and luxury tax - could the phillies give cash but pay next year rather than this in say a Pence trade to SF? That way, we avoid the lux tax this year, and the multiplier next year

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb

Domonic Brown has been scratched from triple-A Lehigh Valley's lineup for noon game. He'll be coming up.

Praise jesus.

Sweet, we have a new 5th OF.

Well, there you go.

JW: How to draw the line between the Phillies "putting Brown in a bad spot", & Brown simply not being able to cut it in the big leagues? The Phillies are done. There's no pressure at all right now. I support bringing Dom up, & starting him every damn day.

Hallelujah.

According to Gelb, Dom Brown has been scratched from IronPigs game.

Weitzel - I don't either. He's been injured again and is just finally starting to hit & play well again.

It's a lost season. Let Brown play everyday at Lehigh, hopefully produce, and get healthy.

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb

Domonic Brown has been scratched from triple-A Lehigh Valley's lineup for noon game. He'll be coming up.

Praise jesus.

----------------------------------------------

The message has to come from the front office: "Play Dom everyday."

If not, Cholly will give him his 5-6 AB's per week and kill the kid's confidence again.

Hell, any chance we can call up Sandberg with him too??

Yeah I don't see how anyone can be mad at this Brown move now. If he fails then he fails. It needed to be done. Seeing what he can do now in actual meaningful games is going to tell you a lot more about what you have in him for 2013 than him facing stiffs in spring training next March. If he stinks now then get the wheels in motion for a new plan out there.

Chris: Nor do I. Texas is free to deal (or not) as they wish, but I'm glad the Phillies haven't -- as of yet, anyway -- been their patsy.

What if he's been scratched becuase he's part of a trade...

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