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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

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So much for all the opiners telling us how Hamels wanted to go back to California and how it was a lock the Dodgers would sign him.

And how the Phils' lousy season would have him going somewhere where the team might win more games.

They have 18 games to lose the rest of the season. I hope that this deal fuels confidence in not only hamels, but the rest of the team. I don't forsee a sell-off now.

Very pleased with the signing. Glad I can go buy my Hamels Hersey now.

THANK GOD

Since he's now paid like a multiple Cy Young winner, does that mean he'll actually pitch like one?

This is great! I can continue to wear my Hamels BlueClaws jersey to the major league games.

Merry Christmas in July... And we all got Cole in our stockings

The fact of the matter is that regardless of what the negative posters will say here, dealing Hamels would have been a huge PR nightmare for the Phillies. I for one am glad that they stuck with the best homegrown pitcher since Roberts.

FWIW, this deal leaves us with around $7 million (assuming they dont bust through the luxury tax) to fill holes in LF, 3B, 1 SP and various bench/bullpen spots.

So, they will either have to move a ton of salary (but still replace the production of that salary) or go the super cheap route again.

NEPP - Is that for 2013?

Good news.

Yes. Its actually closer to $10 million I believe as I messed up the math. We had something like $32 million available before this deal. If the AAV of this deal is $23-24 million, that leaves us something like $8-10 million to fill those holes.

Somebody big has to be traded (Pence or Lee would be my guess)

Nepp- Thanks for bringing us down to earth..

GLAD TO HAVE Cole in the Fold...

but... $144MM...

To put it in perspective, I am interviewing for a job today that is 4% of that amount...


What's wrong with that picture?

Guess i am in the wrong business!!


Ok...now that this is settled, what will Texas give us for Cliff Lee and how much of his salary will Amaro have to eat?

...and who might be heading out of town behind him?

ACTUALLY 3.5%

So, yeah, now who goes?

Do you mean 0.04%? 4% of that deal would be a huge salary

I'll say it again, Cliff Lee isn't going anywhere.

If they end up trading Pence, who is our OF next year?

We'd have to acquire a CF and RF via free agency.

You can never have enough good pitching.

Separately, given what teams are getting in return in trades (Marlins-Dodgers being a prime example), I wouldn't trade anyone at this point. Every "marquee" player in deals being made is getting .50 cents on the dollar in return, if that.

Barring injury, Brown almost has to be somewhere in our OF next season.

@Will: I agree on Brown. They should probably call him up as soon as possible and just let him play out the year. He needs reps at the MLB level.

***Every "marquee" player in deals being made is getting .50 cents on the dollar in return, if that.***

If you're referring to the Hanley deal, you have to remember that Hanley has been pretty terrible for 2 straight years now, he's an injury risk, he's overpaid and he's a poor defender at 3B and SS.

He's not really a marquee guy anymore.

So you'll be making close to 1 million dollars per year if you get the job? If so, you are in the right business.

Great news - if this team needed to hold on to any player at all, Hamels is the one.

Let the speculation of trading Lee/Pence/etc. begin. I think they can move Lee and only have to eat about $5-8M a season to get back an extremely good haul in return. I would shoot for Olt and Leonys Martin.

Wow.

Really thought Cole would test FA waters, but this contract solved that decision for him.

Really glad to know he's back here for good, purely for "fan" reasons, totally apart from the economics of the deal and what it may mean going forward.

I think this deal is more of a product of Hamels really wanting to be here more than anything else. I'm really happy about it. Now the other moves need to be made so that this team can still be competitive and those moves include some of the following things:

- dealing Lee (be it now or in the offseason, I think the offseason will be better because his stock is falling fast right now. Tell him he's safe here, hope he goes on a hot stretch til the end of the year)
- dealing Pence or Victorino (I think Pence will net you more and is the most likely to be moved with Quentin off the market)
- promote Dom immediately when one of the 2 above is dealt. Pray he gets it because you need one cost controlled young talent in your everyday 9.
- let me drive Polanco to Kansas City in exchange for ribs
- take the available money saved from the moving of Lee and Pence/Victorino and get legitimate proven bullpen arms. 2 preferably.
- see what you can do for a 3rd baseman. If you have to get creative get creative. Maybe Lee can bring you back that 3B piece.

"Hanley has been pretty terrible for 2 straight years now, he's an injury risk, he's overpaid and he's a poor defender at 3B and SS."

In other words, he's a perfect fit at 3B in Philadelphia.

What care package could be sent to Texas for Olt? Perhaps Worley?

*** think this deal is more of a product of Hamels really wanting to be here more than anything else.***

Yeah, he sure did give us a hometown discount.

~rolls eyes~

Pence is going to have to go. Lee is not going to
Be moved. Got To do it now. If this team wins say 8 in a row all bets are
Off now. Rube going to have to work magic or say you know what 13 we have to Go over tax. 2014 cap goes up tv contract kicks in

Congrats to Cole and to Amaro. I really like Hamels and I'm glad he'll be in Philly for a while. Hopefully Amaro has a plan to fill out the rest of the roster.

Well no he didn't NEPP but I'm of the opinion that someone is always going to offer more. The Angels and Yankees of the world still have plenty of coin to throw around and word yesterday was that he shot 6/140 down so you don't think another team in the offseason would have started with 7 guaranteed at the same AAV?

Right now, we have $141 million committed to 10 players in 2013 (assuming they use Chooch's team option for $5 million...probably a safe bet).

So, figure out those other 15 guys at around $30 million.

My posts on the Rangers swapping Cole for Olt at the deadline -- and Cole signing for C.C. Sabathia money on the free agent market are now officially wishful thinking.

Say what you will, but unless Chase Utley is juiced to the gills with HGH, or has engaged some legal orthopedic therapy not yet commonly known, he's still a real liability; perhaps as early as September, and certainly throughout the 2013 season. The Phils are also glaringly deficient at 3rd, LF, catching depth and in the bullpen.

Will the Phils move Cliff Lee (fat chance!) or bust through the luxury tax threshold? No? Then it's inconceivable to me that moving forward the team will be anything else than a .500 club with a very expensive pitching staff.

Nuts.

The above $141 million DOES NOT include a projected $15 million to Hunter Pence...FWIW.

***Hopefully Amaro has a plan to fill out the rest of the roster.****

If its one thing Rube has shown us in the past four seasons its that he's a fantastic long-term planner. So no worries there.

I wonder if Ruben told Cole anything about his future plans for the team because I would think that's something that would come up in negotiations and in Cole's desire to be on a winning team.

swapping Olt for Cole Geesh.

swapping Olt for Cole Geesh.

In my view 2013 is the only really tricky year. They will want to stay under the tax prior to it jumping 10 million in 2014 and then once 2015 rolls around they will have the new TV deal to keep the owners happy.

A lot of next season will depend on whether Howard and Utley are healthy (big if) and whether Dom turns out to be a decent big league every day player (bigger if). Neither are impossible but both happening are probably one in 5 odds?

2014 could be tricky too...say if Lee and/or Howard are total dead weight on the roster but still making $50 million.

Sorry about the double posts -- I need to figure out why they happen (not ruling out operator error!).

Signed Cole Great job Phillies! Now trade Pence to the Pirates for Starlin Marte! Trade Victorino call up Dom Brown. Play Mayberry, Marte and Brown in the Outfield. Trade Lee to Texas for Olt and your lineup with the exception of LF is set for next year! Also get rid of Pierre, Blanton, Kendrick & Wigginton! I still think we could make the playoffs this year!

Have to believe Brown is starting RF next year with Mayberry/Nix in Left and that the team will pay the luxury tax in 2013 no matter what. Third still remains the sticky wicket. Polonco is still useful when he's healthy but he isn't often healthy and there's nothing on the free agent market is probably Brandon Inge who is currently hitting .201 or Macier Izturis who's hitting .236. Maybe move a 2b over like Kelley Johnson. . . he might be the best of some pretty poor options.

Does anyone think that the Phillies WILL go over the luxury tax threshold next year?

Cause that actually seems like the most logical move given the budget.

***Polonco is still useful when he's healthy ***

He's been one of the best 3B in baseball history in those 2 weeks he was healthy over the past 3 seasons.

NEPP: my point exactly.

TK: I think they have to. Otherwise, why sign Cole if you know you have to fill the outfield and 3rd base with bums.

Barring a major move to dump a large salary (Pence or Lee), staying under the luxury tax for 2013 looks close to impossible unless they fill out all the holes on the roster with mostly junk. If they pass the tax threshold in 2013, it shouldnt be too hard to get under it again in 2014 and avoid the multiple-offender penalties.

If ownership hasn't approved a budget in excess of the tax threshold then this deal could be crippling in 2013.

Great news.

If Pence is moved next, it's even better news.

Without having looked at any of the comments on this or the previous thread, I'm sure I speak for most posters in saying, this is a terrible deal, it will tie the team's hands for years, they'll have to put Triple A guys in the lineup, it puts them over budget etc. etc. etc.

Waiting for the usual suspects to express those views in 3,2,1...

Anyone seen MG? He placed a 10K bet with me and won't return my phone calls.

If polanco was a good player when haelthy and a below average player while hurt - he'd be worth thinking about.

But instead he's OK when healthy and absolutely pitiful when hurt, which is about 80% of his season.

No worries on the bullpen in 2013...they hold a team option on Jose Contreras.

Anyway, I'm going to operate under the assumption that Hamels and ownership wouldn't sign off on this deal unless they knew Amaro had a plan for the rest of the roster in the medium term. I do hope that plan isn't another Cliff Lee trade, because if history has taught us anything, it's that you shouldn't engage in land wars in Asia, take on a Sicilian in matter concerning death, or make a trade where you are the one giving up Cliff Lee, because those never end well.

Now Amaro only needs to fill an entire OF, a 3B and then worry about the other 3/4 of the infield that's on the decline.

Never thought that NEPP would take up residency as the resident BL curmudgeon. Congrats!

Sweet now all the naysayers can say in the offseason how Cole would of not got nearly that much from everyone else and how the Phillies overpaid by a ton. Even though there will be no evidence of that.

It's really amazing how many BLers are so wrong so often about so many things.

Months ago, I assured you that Hamels would be signed by the Phillies, but you just didn't want to listen.

jbird: hah that is the truth.

Expos gave up Lee for a couple months of Bartolo Colon
Indians gave up Lee for 4 phillies prospects who suck
Phillies gave up Lee for 3 mariners prospects who suck
Mariners gave up Lee for awful Justin Smoak and others

Well, clout, maybe you should actually go read them

phlipper: congrats on predicting the phillies would be in last place and re-signing Cole Hamels at the trade deadline for $144M - I'll make sure to listen to your wisdom in the future based on your dead-on prediction of this season.

johnnysanz: I see that you are quite familiar with Beerleaguer.

DPatrone's source was wrong again.

MG was wrong again.

Some things don't change.


Also, if the Phillies bust through the luxury threshold for next year that is going to be tough for Jack and the others that have insisted they know what the Phillies budget is.

WHen asked about long-term plans, Rube merely pressed a button on his desk that opened a secret door in his office. Once his 2013 starting 3B Michael Martinez walked in, Cole immediately signed on the dotted line.

it's that you shouldn't engage in land wars in Asia

I guess Genghis Khan should have heeded your warnings.

***Also, if the Phillies bust through the luxury threshold for next year***

I really, really, really, really hope that this occurs. I hope Middleton walked in and b!tchslapped Rube and Monty and said he would personally pay to go $20 million over the tax and to get it done.

***I guess Genghis Khan should have heeded your warnings***

The rule is a bit more specific than that...you have to remember the initial caveat of "if you are not personally Asian and/or leading another Asian nation-state, you should not..."

With a new, and potentially very lucrative, tv deal looming in 2015, ownership may have decided to bite the bullet short term for the long-term gains. Looking at the massive deals the Angels, Dodgers, etc have signed over the last couple years, making sure to field a contending team in 13 & 14 is well worth it to keep ratings up.

Can Amaro convince Cashman that the Yanks need Polanco to replace Arod? He could be the no speed righthanded version of Ichiro.

Happy to have Hamels locked up. He's always been my favorite Phillie, even before he lead us to a WFC.

Ruben has done a terrible job managing the payroll of this team, but lucky for him, 200+ straight sellouts and that upcoming TV contract is bailing him out.

That being said, I have to imagine he will look to move Lee now. Would the Rangers do Olt for Lee straight up? Are they looking for a rental or a long-term solution?

Any intrest in Dee Gordon for next year? Now that the Dodgers have Hanley, could we get him for something reasonable?

Could JRoll play 3rd, with Gordon at short?

I'm pretty sure the Phillies intended to surpass the Luxury Tax in 2013... but were trying hard not to pass in 2012 because of the escalating penalties.

If they dump anyone now it will likely be someone they don't have control of over next year (Vic/Blanton/Pierre) or Pence.

The problem is, they are pretty darn close to the tax now, that might be all be moot.

But at least that was the "plan"...


Now that we are in the Luxury Tax threshhold... I look forward to the Personal Seat Licenses... and the graduated pricing for next year!

Edmundo: It's a classical reference.

Love the Princess Bride quote, JBird.

I feel like I just bought a mansion and am torn between being thrilled with it and having buyers' remorse that I shouldn't have spent so much money.

Totally pointless and hypothetical question...

Does this deal increase or decrease Cole's trade value?

Thanks, NEPP, about the caveats on an Asian Land War.

Question: Is the sell-out streak still going? I heard the attendance was 43K+ last night but didn't hear TMac orgasm over the nth straight sellout.

Chris: I think increase. Now you have the option to trade him with $$ to maximize his value even more.

I think increase. Now you have the option to trade him with $$ to maximize his value even more.

Posted by: lorecore | Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 09:29 AM

I would tend to agree...now that he's not a rental and you have cost-certainty with him going forward I'd think he'd be worth more to the teams that can afford him. But it's a pointless exercise, obviously.

As a fan of Hamels I'm very happy we signed him. As a phillies fan I'm a little leery of how rube is gonna fill out the rest of the roster. Guess that's why I'm not the gm.

Edmundo-- yes-- and you missed the orgasm.

"You can never have enough good pitching."


Yes, all that "good pitching" has resulted in 0 WS titles.

The Phillies won with Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton starting games in the playoffs. How much did they cost?

MLB Trade Rumors reports there is a club/vesting option for Hamels. If Phils pick up option, it's a 7-year, $158M deal. If the option VESTS, it's a 7-year, $162M deal, the largest contract for a pitcher ever ($1M more than CC).

Here's how it vests, according to Tim Dierkes of MLBTR: Hamels is not on the disabled list with a left shoulder or elbow injury at the end of the 2018 season, and he pitches 200 innings in 2018, and he pitches 400 innings in 2017-2018 combined.

CJ: I'm ok with a ~$20M Vest if he's healthy and coming off back to back 200IP seasons. I wonder if Hamels can opt out of his option if he's still dominating as a 34yr old(very likely) and go for another deal or if the vest happens no matter what.

Looking forward to Step 2 of r00b's latest brilliant plan, wherein he dumps Pence for players who aren't -- & quite possibly never will be -- MLB ready.

Unless the Phillies commit to paying the luxury tax for a few seasons, they're f*cked. Too many frail players, & too many holes in the roster.


Yes, all that "good pitching" has resulted in 0 WS titles.

The Phillies won with Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton starting games in the playoffs. How much did they cost?

Posted by: denny b. | Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 09:33 AM


I love this argument. The playoffs are a crapshoot.

Now, the 2018 budget comes into play!!

I've never cared how much the Phils spend. And I detest the idea of trading a guy to stock the farm (that's worked out well!). Cole Hamels is an ace. He's a 28-year old LHP with a WS MVP already. He may not be Clayton Kershaw, but that's a high bar to get over... and he doesn't have to be Clayton Kershaw to be essential to this team.

Phils won't be dealing Lee. No one is trading for Lee.

Phils will try very hard to deal Hunter Pence.

I was wrong big time on this. Said Cole would never sign before free agency. Way off.

Either way, there's simply no reason to believe that Cole Hamels was worth the second highest contract ever given to a pitcher. He just simply hasn't had one of those monster seasons yet, and he doesn't project to. Great pitcher, but this deal is ludicrous.

lorecore: If Hamels is dominant at age 34, at the least, Phils will pick up the club option. So if he's good enough for the deal to vest, Hamels won't be going anywhere.

denny b: Besides land war in Asia, don't forget the other truism: Anything can happen in a short series.

So, the Phils waited until the eleventh hour to sign Hamels and paid market price. I am happy to have Hamels back, but Amaro should taken the risk to sign him two years ago. It would have saved the team a lot of dough.

The luxury tax is not a big problem under the new CBA as long as a team's payroll stays close to the threshold and can drop below it after incurring the tax for a season or two. In the Phils' case, the payroll should dip below the threshold in 2014. Hamels' entire salary is covered by a) the $11 million increase in threshold beginning in 2014 and b) the elimination of Utley's salary.

It would be nice to trade Pence for a Castellanos or an Olt, but That is wishful thinking.

Fat: Was the deal to Matt Cain equally ludicrous? Or is that where the market is?

I can't believe all of you have forgotten that Mini Mart can move back up to the major league roster and fill the holes at 3rd, LF, and RF.

denny - We didn't have the best pitchers in '08, but they did pitch really well in the postseason (I believe down the stretch, too). Moyers' performance while suffering the flu was remarkable, I thought - I remember his wife said he was green earlier in the day.

And we only need our SP to give us 6 strong innings because we had Durbin, Romero, Madson & Lidge pitching well out of the 'pen. Durbin faltered down the stretch & I don't remember him in the postseason, but I guess he must have done well enough.

Looks like all of the BL a-holes who troll the message board just to criticize others are out in force today.

Funny how they have all been so silent on being so very wrong about the state of the 2012 Phillies.

denny b: Besides land war in Asia, don't forget the other truism: Anything can happen in a short series.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 09:44 AM

Yeah, like your top dollar pitchers will get exposed and it will be apparent that having patient hitters who are willing to grind out at bats are often preferable to a bunch of all or nothing swingers.

CJ, I criticized the Cain deal from day 1.

Yeah, like your top dollar pitchers will get exposed and it will be apparent that having patient hitters who are willing to grind out at bats are often preferable to a bunch of all or nothing swingers.

Posted by: Five-4-One | Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 09:53 AM


541 - Do you have any statistical analysis that supports that statement? I mean other than Cards/Phils in 2012?

RedBurb,

Just agreeing with Clout that anything can happen in a short series. Like you can lose, even though convention says that overwhelming pitching should win a short series. Well, Halladay, Lee and Hamels couldn't overcome Carpenter, Lohse, Jaime Garcia and Edwin Jackson.

I meant to say that the pitchers didn't get exposed (save maybe Cliff Lee) but the convention and the offensive defficiencies certainly did.

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