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Tuesday, July 31, 2012


If you feel like crying, go look up how Singleton and Santana are doing in their respective leagues. Cosart is doing pretty well do if not at the level those two are performing.

All 3 likely end up as Top 100 guys this winter.

All for 1 season of Hunter Pence.

Despite his disdain for Sabermetrics, I'm guessing Rube is a Fangrapher:

Here's their write up Rosen: SLEEPER ALERT: Seth Rosin, RHP: If you’re a rival executive talking trade with the Giants this winter you’ll want to ask for Rosin as a throw in to any deal. The right-hander features an 88-93 mph fastball, curveball and changeup. He’s made easy work of pro ball so far. He has a big, strong frame at 6’5” 240 lbs and has shown the ability to both start and relieve, while producing both strong strikeout rates and good ground-ball numbers. Despite spending the entire 2011 season in low-A (for no good reason), the club challenged the right-hander with an assignment to the Arizona Fall League and he’s more than held his own. As a pitcher from a northern state (Minnesota) he could be a late-bloomer.


"this trade leads me to believe Phillies have turned sour on (top catching prospect) Sebastian Valle"

I don't think that is necessarily true. Could be they just went for the best talent they could get regardless of position. That would be the smart thing to do.

I can't see how the Phillies could possibly have gotten back as much for Pence this year as they traded away last year--it was a gamble that didn't pay off.

Klaw on Pence trade:

"Pence is a marginal upgrade for the Giants over Gregor Blanco, adding more offense but at some cost on defense; AT&T Park also isn't the ideal spot for a hitter like Pence, whose power is above-average but not the kind of huge power that will play even in a large stadium. He'll earn somewhere around $13-14 million in 2013 through arbitration. What boggles the mind is why the Giants allowed Carlos Beltran, a better if more injury-prone player who they gave up a top prospect for a year ago, to walk away last offseason only to have to trade for a replacement midyear. Did they not realize how lacking their offense would be?

Joseph is an offensive catcher with arm strength whose receiving, while improved from his high school days, still needs work and could still lead to him moving off the position or ending up a backup. Joseph has above-average raw power right now with average bat speed but good rotation to with his strong upper body; his plate discipline is adequate, and his performance this year partly reflects his youth relative to his competition. (He has a .705 OPS for Double-A Richmond and turned 21 a few weeks ago.) If his receiving continues to improve, he could end up a valuable everyday catcher because of his bat, but right now it's probably worse than even money that he can do so.

Schierholtz is a platoon outfielder who's capable in either corner and can hit right-handers well enough to be part of a solution with the proper platoon partner. Rosin is a big, right-handed strike-thrower who has seen his velocity spike this summer after he returned to the rotation for high Class A San Jose. His fastball is bumping 95 mph and could end up a back-end starter if that holds. It's a very good return for Pence, not close to what the Phillies gave up last summer, but excellent considering Pence's potential cost next year."

I dont think they've ever been that high on Valle...he was just the guy that remained standing after we traded Marson and Jaramillo

The FIRST Pence deal was a disaster. This one is pretty f***ing good.

Rube's bad decisions have severely outnumbered his good ones. His career batting average is on par with his percentage of "hits" as GM.

I just realized we lost not only the player Vic, but the best nickname in the majors. I loved "the Flyin' Hawaiian" as a nickname! Next best on the team is "Chooch".

Klaw on Vic trade:

"Victorino helps the Dodgers primarily because of who he's replacing, as LA's left fielders have hit a whopping .259/.329/.348 this season, while the replacements for Andre Ethier when he was on the DL were even worse. But Victorino isn't the player he was a year or two ago, as his bat speed has started to slow and his range in center has begun to slip. He could be worth an extra win to the Dodgers given how little they've gotten from left field this year.

The return for the Phillies is surprisingly good, given his down year and impending free agency. Martin is an upside play, a 2008 first-round pick who has bounced back from two disappointing years where his command and velocity weren't where they were expected to be. The right-hander is 93-97 again and flashes a plus curveball, which could be a very strong combo in a relief role; to start, he'll need to improve his fringy changeup and throw a lot more strikes, although his 12 percent walk rate this year is actually the best of his career and the 23-year-old is striking out almost a man per inning at Double-A Chattanooga. He's a good athlete who had some potential as a third baseman with power in high school.

Lindblom has an above-average fastball but no out pitch; his best weapon is an 82-85 mph slider that isn't really sharp enough to consistently get under hitters' bats, and he should probably junk his slow curveball entirely. He could end up a capable middle reliever but his value is primarily in his low cost."

Why is everyone so sure Pence will get $14 million (15 according to Missanelli) in arbitration if he only got $10.4 this year and he's not performed nearly as well as he did in 2011?

Brown called up.

Speaking of Marson, he's actually turned into a fairly solid catcher at the MLB level...he's a backup to Carlos Santana but he could easily be a starter at the MLB level as he's a very solid defender and his bat is coming around now. .707 OPS this year and .774 vs RHP.

SO he wasnt a bust essentially.

***Why is everyone so sure Pence will get $14 million (15 according to Missanelli) in arbitration if he only got $10.4 this year and he's not performed nearly as well as he did in 2011?***

Because players never take a paycut in arbitration and he's still had a solid year as far as they're concerned.

Martin Frank ‏@mfranknba
Phillies should tape over Nate Schierholtz's name on Hunter Pence Bobblehead giveaway on Aug. 21. Who'd know?

That can't be the real KLaw - he likes the Phillies side of both deals, which I thought was impossible.

The word out of LA is that Kemp is moving to LF with Vic stying in CF. Smart move on their part if true...despite Kemp being a "gold-glover" in CF.

Have to say that even though this process is necessary, it ain't no fun as a fan.

Will be interesting to see how the team responds to this. Will they fight hard through the remainder of the season to set a good tone for next year or will they play out the string at this point?

less than an hour to go to do this Blanton deal. C'mon the $$$.

I've never bought into the KLaw hates Philly meme. He doesnt kiss their arses but he's always been fair in his evaluations of prospects. He was completely right about Carrasco and K. Drabek for instance.

So are they or aren't they sending cash to San Fran as well?

Re: Singleton, Cosart, Santana:

Check back when they're putting up big #s in Houston. Until then, being a top 100 prospect will make them useful trade chips (that Houston won't use). Otherwise, a top 100 prospect plus 99 cents will buy a cup of coffee.

I seem to remember anger at Cardenas + Outman for Blanton. How'd those 2 pan out?

I thought Singleton had a pronounced lefty/righty split, no? Cosart is nothing special -- check his stats. Santana is gonna hurt in part because he was the PTBNL.

Hopefully they'll move Blanton too.

Something tells me the Blanton thing happens and we cave on money (because they already dumped all the payroll they wanted to), and BL will be incredibly underwhelmed by the prospect we get in return. The Shoop thing was and is a pipe dream.

At this point I just want Blanton gone. Go away. Let Cloyd have a chance.

from Bob Brookover:

Despite his brief time in Philadelphia, Pence said he grew to love playing for the Phillies.

"I had nothing but great memories here in Philadelphia," he said. "I am nothing but thankful for the opportunity to play -- unbelievable teammates and really the organization is a class act all the way from the top down. The fans made it an absolute blast to play for, so it was a great experience."

Read more:

Yeah, sorry Clout, but this trade tells us nothing about Valle except for the fact that he isn't Joe Mauer, which we already knew.

Once the Giants wouldn't budge with Gary Brown, Joseph was the best prospect they were willing to deal. So Amaro got him. My guess it's as simple as that.

Iceman: Cloyd? Ha. We all know Kendrick is going to be the 5th starter for the rest of the season.

Santana is more than a decent prospect. He's the youngest hitter in the California League and he's 7th in OPS for the league. He might SO a bit but he's got a serious power bat for a 19 year old even when you adjust for playing in that league.

I see the Pence as only somewhat of a diasater. ANd I'm not defender RAJ here. last year he felt he needed an RH bat (he did) to put us over the hump. Pence performed well, but Howard and Utley were there. In other words, was Pence's performance a product of the Phils lineup?

This year, Pence was basically asked to carry the load and we found out that he couldn't.

Yes the price we paid was high, but looking at it they're looking towards the future. Who knows? Maybe they felt they couldn't re-sign Pence to a long-term deal next year.

But it looks like RAJ will try to make a big splash in the FA market next year.

Iceman: If Blanton gets traded the Phils will just move Kendrick back to the rotation where he's going to end up in '13 anyway.

Klaw is as knowledgable as he is insufferable.

Guys, I've come to the conclusion that they will sign Hamilton in the offseason. Yep.

Hunter Pence ‏@HunterPence3
Thank you Philadelphia for all your support and passion. Excited to see what awaits me in San Francisco!

Jack- you agree with that?

I'm assuming Cloyd will get a cup of coffee one way or another when they shut Worley and/or Halladay down. Which has to be the next step, here, as the FO has finally conceded that the season is over.

So ... he's quite knowledgeable?

From the last thread on Pence:

"Won't miss Pence in the least either. Didn't want the Phils to acquire him last year (wanted Bourn as a leadoff hitter and shift Vic into RF going withe speed/defense over power) and the Phils won't either.

Yeah he is on pace hit 27 HRs/94 RBIs but that isn't a terribly impressive RBI total for someone who has hit most of the season in the #5 hole.

His slash line is .271/.336/.447 (.784 OPS) is nothing to write home about, he is on pace to steal a whopping 6 SB, and he has been a disaster in RF defensively for the most part.

Also tired of watching his approach of the plate of 'swinging for the fences' regardless of the situation. Scouts last year on him said he had holes galore at the plate (chased high fastballs, chased breaking stuff away from RHP, could be jammed on the inner part of the plate, swung ridiculously hard regardless of the count) and that he can be pitched too. Turns out they were dead right.

Pence succeeds because he is in freakishly good shape and has amazing athletic talent. Rube is a sucker for these guys but he is a crappy fundamental player who has serious mechanic flaws at the plate and in the field. Not a good baserunner either. Also situationally clueless.

Pence trade and his tenure here have to be labeled as 'disappointments' at best. Good thing about him being gone is that it freed up some considerable cash for next year to make other moves and that Amaro won't consider the prospects of a disastrous 4-5 years extension for him."

I will amend this to say they will miss his durability but for being a power/average guy he never hit 30 HRs in a season and he is around a .280-.285 hitter.

But it looks like RAJ will try to make a big splash in the FA market next year.

Upon what is this opinion based? I certainly hope this will prove the case, but I haven't heard or read a shred of evidence suggesting it will be. Certainly Phillies history offers no such promises.

Cosart's numbers on dont look elite...until you see his GB%. He's a GB machine.

On Singleton's splits, here they are:

vs. LHP: .781 OPS
vs. RHP: .912 OPS

Not that severe and they've been improving quite a bit over the last 2 years as he matures.

Not a doubt in my mind that, as DPatrone pointed out above, that RAJ will be aggressive in signing FA's this offseason.

Is it really that crazy to think the Phils can do better via FA than paying $14m in arb for Pence?

***Guys, I've come to the conclusion that they will sign Hamilton in the offseason. Yep.***

Not sure if serious but I totally see this as a possibility. It would fit Rube's MO to the T.

Marlins trade Gaby Sanchez to the Pirates for Gorkys Hernandez and a competitive balance pick.

"last year he felt he needed an RH bat (he did) to put us over the hump."

What hump did Pence get the team over? The team rolled just like it did before they got him and they flamed out in the playoffs.

Now that they've dealt Pence after one year of him essentially contributing nothing of significance to the team, it's fair to call it a disaster considering what they gave up to get him. Seems like a good guy and I wish him well. But acquiring him was a huge mistake.

Not sure if serious but I totally see this as a possibility. It would fit Rube's MO to the T.

Posted by: NEPP

Oh I'm serious and it makes me sad.

So ... he's quite knowledgeable?

Posted by: Phil Smiles | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 03:18 PM

KLaw knows more about prospects than everyone posting on this board combined and he has seen far more of them in person than all of us combined. You might not agree with some of his opinions but they're based on his 1st hand observation of the players in question.

You know what awaits you...

Not excited about the pence deal. Really feel like Joseph should have been a secondary piece in the deal. Bleh.

He was jbird...we got Nasty Nate! That was the main cog!

Reds lookin for lead-off guy. Spann won't happen.. Maybe Pierre? any mid-level prospect works for me.

Iceman: Do I agree with it? No, not really. I think Kendrick has been somewhat useful in the bullpen, while we know what he is as a starter--he's a basic 5th starter, that's it, nothing more or less.

Chances are, Cloyd is nothing better, and probably worse. But you might as well find out. I'd start Cloyd and leave KK in the bullpen, where's been comfortable.

Still, I doubt it's what they do. My guess is Kendrick slides into the rotation, and that's also your rotation next season, unless there's a bargain bin FA starter Rube signs instead.

Regardless of the opinion on Hunter Pence's worth as a hitter and a ballplayer, I'd like to commend Mr. Pence for being an absolute gentleman and all around class act.

Good luck in San Fran Hunter!

Now back to our regularly scheduled program, watching our overpaid pitching give up HR's and our overpaid 2B and 1B continue to atrophy right in front of us.

Vic, Pence...gone.

Blanton, Pierre, Wigginton...still here.

What's going on?

I know many posters carry significant weight based on posting history and constructive, large sample size based comments but isn't it a little short sighted to think of the Pence trade as the Phils prospects for these Giants prospects? Doing so ignores that the Phils were adding a bat to power them into the WS last year -- that was the real value of the original Pence trade. Its failure was that they didn't get out of the first round, let alone win the WS.

"Certainly Phillies history offers no such promises. [that Amaro will make a big splash in FA]"

Is this is a joke? There's no evidence Amaro will make a big splash or a big FA signing?


Pence is a stand up guy. I wish him the best.

Iceman: If it involves going over the luxury tax.

There is no doubt Ruben is watching early 2012 highlights of Hamilton with lubriderm beside him. He'll be here next year.

Yeah Pence is a plenty fine guy. He should have a lot of fun in that cavernous RF in AT&T Park. Many a laughs will be had.

NEPP - I think that's a fair assessment of Law. I was just trying to clarify norbertods' statement. And, imho, Law is not nearly as insufferable as Ricciardi.

***that was the real value of the original Pence trade***

Not really. We would have won the division regardless and he certainly didnt help us at the time. The "need for a RH bat" was overblown then and even now in hindsight. Which is why some of us were violently against it even before it went down.

Meanwhile, Joe Blanton remains w/ the Phillies.

Does Schierholtz become our starting RF for the rest of the year or do they go with Brown full-time?

Brown is starting tonight obviously but that's only because Schierholtz wont be available until at least tomorrow.

Do we have the lineup for tonight?

There's still 32 min left...I expect Blanton to get dealt.

"Upon what is this opinion based? I certainly hope this will prove the case, but I haven't heard or read a shred of evidence suggesting it will be. Certainly Phillies history offers no such promises."

Dave, you're joking, right?

Broxton to the Reds.

30 minutes left to trade Blanton to the O's and Wiggy to the Yankees.

Baseball Prospectus describes Shierholtz best: "A league average baseball player."

Watching this new lineup face Stephen Strasburg tonight should be good for a few laughs.

Rosin was born in Fargo...

Baron: I should have been more specific. I'm referring to the team being willing to pay the luxury tax, which would almost certainly have to happen if they make a "big splash" in FA this year.

At this point, RAJ will probably give the O's Blanton as long as they pay his salary. Ditto Wiggy to the Yanks. Maybe both teams could throw in a few baseballs. (Would the Yankees actually use Wiggy at 3B while ARod is out? Have they seen him field that position?)

I can't imagine what next year will be like if Doc doesn't get it together and either Utley or Howard don't find some way to turn back the clock.

Dom gets a lot of playing time from here on in. Scheirholtz is the last outfielder. Like someone said before, the Giants probably insisted we take him. They would just leave Dom down on the farm if he wasn't gonna play. Bringing him up to sit on the bench would be ridiculous.

G-Town: So you think this salary dump to get under the tax this year is just to save some pennies, and not related to planning on busting through it next year (as Monty said they were willing to do)? You really think they're going to skimp in all their positions of need next year- despite investing $150 million+ already- to save a few dollars?

I mean, I guess when you say how dumb you think the FO is, you're exaggerating, but you must REALLY think they are complete morons.

Uh oh. The return of Davthom73.

Strasburg was already going to smoke our hides. I expected to be swept by the Nats before any of the trades were made.

I'm watching the Olympics tonight.

MG talks out of his a$$ sometimes. Never moreso than when he is trying to compare relievers. Wait until he starts crying about how the bullpen is handled again.

I think Amaro had a few missions coming into this trade deadline- get some pieces to help fill holes and shed money for next season to help fill what is left over hole wise.

He got a major league bullpen piece, and a guy who will probably be in your outfield next year in Schierholtz. That means we are looking at Nix/Mayberry/Schierholtz/Brown and probably a free agent (on paper). The two arms they got- according to Jonathan Mayo- are high ceiling guys who could help in the bullpen in the future.

Joseph is a really good prospect and was the Giants #2 I believe coming into the year (maybe #3 on some lists). I do wonder if he gets moved to first considering he is a few years away and Howard would be out the door by then probably.

He's good for boosting post counts at least.

25 min to go on trading Big Joe.

Though we'll likely still be hearing about trades for a good hour after the deadline is passed.

Uh oh. The return of Davthom73.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 03:33 PM

I am sure I don't know what you are talking about...

Iceman is right on the money. They dumped salary to avoid the luxury tax this year in preparation for busting through it next year. Though I will dine on my chapeau if they sign Hamilton. Aint happening.

Prediction: Dom Brown goes 0-3 with 2 Ks and a walk against Strasburg, who holds the rest of the lineup to 3 hits total.

Rube promptly options Dom back to AAA, installs Schierholtz as the starter in RF and says "we still believe in Domonic, it just became clear he needed to work on some things offensively every day in AAA."

I really never crow on this site (not much to crow about, I guess), but I called this Pence trade a disaster when it was still in the rumor mill last July. I'm sure people remember my constant blathering about the 2011 Phillies offense after Chase Utley returned, and how they were consistently in the top 3 of the NL from May 23rd until the end of the year. Add to that the fact that we were on a 102 win pace the day before Pence was dealt for, and the fact that Pence was never the caliber of player that an organization should be willing to part with their best hitting and pitching prospect for...

It was clear from the start that the Pence deal was unnecessary at the time and a definitive overpay on Rube's part.

And for those arguing that giving up your two best prospects for the marginal upgrade of winning the WS, since the playoffs were a lock when we acquired him (and since the playoffs are largely a crapshoot, adding Pence WAS a marginal upgrade, at best), really?

They're not bringing up Brown to sit the bench. I know that's a funny joke at this point, but seriously, he's playing every day. Look at the roster. It's a lock. He's Pence's replacement now and next season.

***Joseph is a really good prospect and was the Giants #2 I believe coming into the year (maybe #3 on some lists). I do wonder if he gets moved to first considering he is a few years away and Howard would be out the door by then probably.***

He loses a TON of value if he moves to 1B. If he cant stick at C, this trade is even worse than it already works.

jw: Yeah. A few years ago, an article in the Wall Street Journal tried to identify the most absolutely average players in MLB. Ben Francisco was on the list. Nate Schierholtz belongs there too. In fact, Francisco's actually a better hitter than Schierholtz. But Francisco was an utter disaster on defense, whereas Schierholtz is excellent. Anyone who gets excited about good fielding corner outfielders will really like Schierholtz.

Maybe part of the goal is to make the team so bad for the remainder of 2012 that we finish with one of the top 10 worst records in baseball. That way we can over pay for all the free agents we want and still not lose our 1st round draft pick.

Also, I'm guessing Utley is already making some vacation plans for April-May 2013 for his extended spring. I hear they have a great knee rehab joint in St. Barts.

Iceman is right on the money. They dumped salary to avoid the luxury tax this year in preparation for busting through it next year. Though I will dine on my chapeau if they sign Hamilton. Aint happening.

Posted by: donc

Well I hope you're hungry.

Iceman: I think they're ignorant as f*ck. Keep in mind Monty said they "might" be willing to pay the luxury tax. Of course this is also the guy who said trading Lee had nothing to do w/ money. And that the Phillies need to build an identity separate from wins & losses. I understand that people want to look at what happened from the most positive possible perspective, but all I see is a team dumping salary to pay for the contract so many wanted them to award Hamels. There's your big FA splash. Again, I hope I'm wrong. But I won't be surprised in the least if r00b & Co. try to plug holes on the cheap believing that this whole '12 season was just a freak, bad luck occurrence.

Josehp to 1st base is ridiculous. His bat simply doesn't play there. His value is almost entirely in his defensive position. He projects to have some pop, but not elite.

If they're moving Valle or Joseph for another piece, or if they're looking at really moving Valle, or Chooch, to third base this makes some sense. But Howard is very likely to clog first base for the next four years.

KLaw exaggerates Rosin's potential while downplaying Joseph's.

Rube signed Cliff and Pap pretty aggressively.

So if rube hadn't overpaid Kendrick, we could have just flipped him for a 3b prospect.

donc- yeah, they aren't doing the Hamilton thing. I'd eat my hat. Frankly I'd rather have Bourn, all things being equal, and he'll be cheaper. I would not want my team giving a recovering drug addict a $100+ million dollar deal.

What would really crack me up is if he gives everyone the finger and goes after Greinke.

Dave, with all the money spent, you honestly think there's some magical threshold at which point the owners say, "screw it, we've spent enough, let's just throw scrubs out there," and it magically coincides with the luxury tax threshold? Honestly?

Let me state, while very disappointed in the overall one year return for our Hunter Pence experience, I fully support the management trying to get under the luxury tax FOR THIS YEAR due to the cumulative penalty associated with that threshold. And I also fully expect them to spend in the offseason in such a manner that will put them right up against the threshold next year. (And, again, if we falter again next year, sure, let's do our best to get under for 2013...but at that point we might have some bigger problems.)

The front office is rightly being criticized for the moves (like the Pence trade, Howard signing, others) that have not been wise, but to now suggest that it's pure parsimony that lead to the Pence trade? That's pretty silly.

Imagine having a poor defensive 1B who hits for a middling average, can't take a walk and basically brings nothing to the table except to hit for power.

No, guys, not Ryan Howard. I'm talking about what Joseph would be at first base.

So yeah, that's not the plan. He's going to catch.

Iceman: Honest question, not attempting to play gotcha -- What would be your max offer for Bourn? I like the guy, but I fear he's gonna benefit from someone's overcommitment.

Man that Reds team is really coming into form.

Jack @3:36.

Had my first laugh of the day at this.


I think there's more to the luxury tax than what people are talking about. It's not only a financial penalty. If you exceed it for two years, you start losing draft picks.

There are a lot of good reasons not to exceed the luxury tax threshold. Like I've said, I'm glad ownership is willing to do so. But it's not necessarily wise to do so. And it looks to me like someone needs to put financial constraints on Rube Jr. because he doesn't seem to be able to handle a budget. Even a very high budget.

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