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Monday, July 30, 2012

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denny (from the last thread): you would rather Lee be traded than Pence, all things being equal?

That basically speaks for itself.

"has become such a boring and hollow experience."

Weitzel's most existential post ever.

Rumors have the Orioles talking to both the Phils and the Padres. O's may not be willing to give up Schoop for Blanton (as rumored) but have a bunch of young arms that have struggled in the majors. I wonder if RAJ is trying to get arms from Baltimore to add to a package for Headley.

Did some Googling and it suggested Phils were maybe between $4M and $6M over the threshold, but no one knew for sure.

What's clear is if Phils go over this year, they pay a 20% penalty and then a 30% penalty next year. But if they don't go over this year, the penalty next year is only 17.5%. That 12.5% difference could be a lot of money next year!

Soto to the Rangers...

If Amaro turns Blanton into some arms with the Orioles into Headley from the Padres (along with something else I would assume) that has to be considered a big win.

ColonelTom: Interesting thought. A guy like Matusz isn't really a fit for the Phillies, but somebody could probably use him.

Odd for the Rangers....though Napoli is a FA this winter so this might be one of those type of moves.

***If Amaro turns Blanton into some arms with the Orioles into Headley from the Padres (along with something else I would assume) that has to be considered a big win.***

That would be a huge win.

“@jcrasnick: The #SFGiants are only discussing one #phillies outfielder, and it's Pence. They're not in on Victorino, source says.”

Maholm and Johnson close to being traded to #Braves

MLBTradeRumors has that as complete...Johnson and Maholm are now Braves.

Re: Pence to Giants. I think there's no chance the Giants would give up Brown and Joseph for him.

Joseph is interesting in that he's a Seb Valle clone: Vast numbers of strikeouts, few walks, 25-HR power and a great glove.

His power numbers took a tumble in going from hitter-friendly Cal League to pitcher- friendly EL this season, but he's just 20, young for the league. Valle is 21.

Also worth noting: Joseph has a 48% CS rate this season, which is spectacular. Valle's is 28%, in the same league.

Anyone catch this from Knobler?

"A's looked into Jimmy Rollins. Price in prospects wasn't high, but salary apparently too much for them."

I'm telling you, Rube sees Galvis as 'ready' to take over for Rollins. How else do you explain him basically wanting to go back on a 3-year contract he offered 8 months ago? They're not even asking for prospects!

clout: "I think there's no chance the Giants would give up Brown and Joseph for him."

Do you mean Brown OR Joseph, or Brown AND Joseph? I can't see both (and haven't seen a rumor with both involved), but if they're desperate enough, I can see them parting with Brown.

***Joseph is interesting in that he's a Seb Valle clone: Vast numbers of strikeouts, few walks, 25-HR power and a great glove.***

If I had to pick, I'd much rather have Brown than Joseph.

***I'm telling you, Rube sees Galvis as 'ready' to take over for Rollins. How else do you explain him basically wanting to go back on a 3-year contract he offered 8 months ago? They're not even asking for prospects!***

Tells you all you need to know about Rube's long-term planning.

So do you trade Pence if you can get Choo from the Indians or Headley from SD by mixing our prospects and newly acquired prospects?

what I really want to see is the Phillies step in with Epstein at Cubs and do a three-way where we get value from cubs or LAD, cubs get what they want and dodgers get Dempster and Vic. Theo is someone we want to work with, the guy is creative. I would happily give up 2-3 middling prospects and Vic in exchange for 1 great and 1 good prospect.

Obviously Blanton doesn't get enough from Baltimore for Headley, but you can see where RAJ could get the pieces. Pence could yield something like Schierholtz and Kyle Crick from the Giants. Blanton and Victorino could get you Arrieta or Matusz and maybe a lesser position prospect (someone like L.J. Hoes or Ryan Adams). Arrieta and Crick would be an attractive pair to the Pads - it might take a bit more than that, but it's a very good start.

***So do you trade Pence if you can get Choo from the Indians or Headley from SD by mixing our prospects and newly acquired prospects?***

Considering that Choo by himself is a far superior player to Pence, that's kinda a no-brainer.

Iceman: Right, I can't see them dealing both. Obviously rather have Brown. Not sure what you do with two Seb Valles except it doubles your chances that one will hit enough to make it eventually.

Schierholtz and Crick is a pretty crummy return for Pence.

"Tells you all you need to know about Rube's long-term planning."

I think it tells you less about his planning than it does his alarming lack of perspective when it comes to evaluating talent.

Is there another human being alive that thinks Galvis would be an adequate replacement for Rollins at this point (not taking into consideration, of course, the fact that he just tested positive for PEDs and broke his back)? I mean, seriously, anyone?

I think Galvis has a future as a 25th man utility infielder...ala John McDonald.

As a starter on a legitimate contender? Not a chance in hell.

I'd be curious to know what the market would be for Schierholtz. My guess: Not much.

"... the trade deadline ... has become such a boring and hollow experience."


This is the hollow thread
This is the drab thread
Waiting together
Blogs filled with rumors. Alas!
Our trite retorts when
We argue together
Are dull and meaningless
As Wild Card standings
Or clearing of Fall calendars
In this barren year.

The Rollins to Oakland report is really the underrated report of this deadline. Signed a $33M deal that could easily be more if he hits those markers. Pretty huge commitment. Not getting all that much back. Galvis can at least match his glove and is 10 years younger. Can Galvis become a .700 OPS hitter, which is what Rollins is right now? Don't see why not ...

So Rube allegedly tried to essentially dump Jimmy for salary relief. Any Pence deal will probably be the same thing - move the salary, but gain nothing that can help next year. Collateral damage of the Hamels contract.

Braves picked up a couple of useful pieces in Maholm and Johnson for a couple middling prospects.

I think they'll win the division, actually.

NEPP - it might be light, but if Ruben is trying to gather arms for Headley, Crick is a good one and the #1 arm in the Giants' system. I doubt you will get two top prospects for Pence, given his contract and especially if the Phils aren't eating a bunch of it this year - choice among prospects is quantity vs. quality. Pirates would also be a good fit for Pence, and they have young arms to spare.

Interesting to see what the Nats will do. Don't they need a pitcher with having to shut down young guys - take a risk with Garza?

****Can Galvis become a .700 OPS hitter,***

What makes you think Galvis can obtain that level of production?

...I'll say what I said to NEPP earlier...if you eat the salary of all the players you're trying to dump, you probably exceed the luxury tax in 2012 an then have to pay the multiple offender penalty in 2013, which means there's zero chance the team goes over the threshold next year. We're talking about 2 months of a Joe Blanton rental here, do you really think we're getting any prospects of real value back, regardless how much salary the Phils eat? 2012's already f-cked, making sure you don't f-ck up 2013 should be the #1 priority.

Posted by: Chris in VT | Monday, July 30, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Hey Chris -- Turnabout is fair play. Exactly what are you trying to say?

BTW, after reading at least a half-dozen of your posts, my mental faculties are just fine.

Topton: "Can Galvis become a .700 OPS hitter, which is what Rollins is right now? Don't see why not ..."

In how many years? Five?

Topton was me guys. Mistakenly used a login handle for another site.

"Can Galvis become a .700 OPS hitter, which is what Rollins is right now? Don't see why not ..."

Then I'm assuming you're blind and haven't seen him hit.

Weitzel- really? You see Galvis as a guy that can match Jimmy's current numbers next year, or in the near future? Holy moly.

Even if you buy into the Omar Vizquel comp for Freddy, it took Vizquel a good 5-6 years to not be a terrible hitter.

I like that the Phillies seem to be holding out for bigger returns on their players, but I'm getting nervous that it won't work. That teams will say "Take it or leave it", so that, in the end, we'll end up accepting crap for our guys just because we're desperate to dump salary.

Jimmy is hitting .251/.309/.397.

Galvis hit .226/.254/.363.

What's that difference worth to the Phillies when they have Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo setting up game, no CF and no 3B?

GBrettfan - Never forget Rube's motto: "Buy high, sell low."

70 points of OPS is fairly significant.

Even if we had cash to spend, that doesnt give us a 3B as there are none available via FA.

OK. Why not? Lee + $20mm for Olt. And the Phils are forever relieved of Lee's contract. Why not? We get a blue chip prospect 3rd baseman, and Cliff gets a ring.

What's not to like? It's my guess the "bloom's off the rose" with Clifton and the Phillies.

"Any Pence deal will probably be the same thing - move the salary, but gain nothing that can help next year."

Don't mean to burst your 'Amaro Sux' bubble curt, but a Pence trade should net a decent return. It would not strictly be a salary dump.

I also think that people don't understand what is happening with these 'salary dumps:' 1) Getting under the luxury tax for this year, so as not to be a repeat offender when it happens next year, and 2) Clear some money to make FA moves in the winter (yes, signings are going to happen). It's not to shed money for the sake of shedding money and then not using that space to improve the team. Way too much invested already.

Pence, with his replacement waiting in AAA, would basically fall under the #2 category, while also netting you a nice prospect in or two in return.

Bastardo's like, he's like our 8th inning guy. That's how I see him.

Just saying - if the Phillies are serious about the payroll thing, then they need to take a good hard look at J-Roll since SS is the one position where they have an option.

You know what would be funny? If we dump all these guys for salary relief and we still dont go over the luxury tax next year...

That would be hilarious.

NEPP: That's exactly what I'm expecting, which means r00b had damn well better get some guys who can play right away.

"I'm about to unload"

For all you Weitzel is Clout conspiracy theorists, please bookmark this thread.

About the most sensible rumor to surface recently has been the one of Charlie retiring .
If I were he, I wouldn't wait for the ax to fall. I would negotiate a soft landing from Rube and get out of the stress, travel and, from his recent public statements, stagnant atmosphere of the team.
Hell, his salary doesn't count against the luxury cap and he should have enough (if you'll excuse the expression) clout with the top dogs to still get paid and take an early retirement.

Make room for new blood.
Maybe a Hof type minor league manager is available in the system somewhere.

Ice - Time will tell. Oh, and I'm assuming that "replacement waiting in AAA" is the guy who wasn't good enough to hold the RF job last year (remember, when Rube emptied the farm to get Pence), and has spend much of the interim on the DL. Interesting.

Would you gain defensively, Galvis over Rollins, in 2013 and beyond? What does Rollins' bat look like at the end of his deal, especially if the fourth year vests? These are questions the Phils are certainly asking if they had conversations w/ Oakland.

If the Phillies could get production from all their OF and 3B (which sounds pretty difficult since the market's thin), and if Chase & Ryan can be counted on next year, then I suppose we could afford to replace Jimmy with Freddy.

I hate to entertain that thought. I'm already going to be bummed not to have Victorino, now I have to think about not having Rollins, too?

I'm starting to think I was smart to lose interest in baseball (all those years ago) while my team was still good & my favorite players still remained on it. I'm new to this notion of supporting a team while it stinks and saying goodbye to beloved players one by one, or two by two, etc, is depressing.

JW: I don't doubt that the Phils are asking themselves those questions, and I actually think you're right that when you consider defense and aging, by 2014 the better player might be Galvis.

But why weren't they asking those questions six months ago when they signed Jimmy to what is essentially a 4/44 deal that no other team was even close to considering, from what we've heard?

Cubs get Viszcano who had tommy john earlier this year. But he can fire the ball, or I should say could fire.

"saying goodbye to beloved players one by one, or two by two, etc, is depressing."


Yes it is.
This whole season is.

PS. I'm not new to rooting for a team that stinks, bt it is still depressing.

Vizcaino and Chapman are the prospects going to Chicago. Pretty decent return considering. Vizcaino had TJ surgery this year but he's still a pretty elite prospect to get out of it. Chapman is more of an org guy but he might top out as a middle reliever at some point.

The Cubs were able to pry Arodys Vizcaino loose from Atlanta. He was BA #40 this year before needing Tommy John surgery.

***These are questions the Phils are certainly asking if they had conversations w/ Oakland.***

If this is the case then they shouldn't have resigned him in the first place. It adds to a continuing pattern of idiotic moves by Amaro.

***The Cubs were able to pry Arodys Vizcaino loose from Atlanta. He was BA #40 this year before needing Tommy John surgery.***

This trade shows you just how far TJ surgery has come in the last 30 years. Now its looked at as an almost routine procedure without any real long-term risk. I wonder how Tommy John feels about that...

NEPP: I'm not sure that's true. Vizcaino went from untouchable last off-season to being worth Maholm and Johnson. That's a HUGE tumble and it has everything to do with the TJ surgery.

Meant last season, not last off-season.

The fact that he's even tradeable is pretty amazing in itself.

Doesn't it make sense to wait for a move to get made to call it idiotic instead of indicting the organization for every rumor floated by a beat writer?

***10:34pm: Alfonso Soriano has told the Cubs he won't accept a trade to San Francisco, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio tweets.***

This strengthens Rube's hand in any dealings with SF for Pence.

A few points about Rollins, in Amaro's defense:

1) The '15 vesting option is not a slam dunk. He needs 600 PA in '14 or 1100 in '13-'14. I wouldn't say it's effectively a 4-year deal.
2) If I remember right, he was offered a guaranteed 4th year by Milwaukee.
3) Did a single person here expect Galvis to show what he did offensively and defensively? I certainly didn't.

If Garza to Reds happens does that hurt chances Reds go after Vic.

***2) If I remember right, he was offered a guaranteed 4th year by Milwaukee.***

Which means Ramirez would have been available instead...

As for the 600 PA...2010 is hte only season in his career that he's failed to reach that threshold. And he's on pace for 713 PA this year.

It doesnt help us that he leads off every game and almost always gets 5 PA a start as a result.

wow is soriano an idiot - thank goodness

I'm not sure what's more surprising... that Soriano won't go to San Fran or that a Major League baseball team wants to trade for Soriano.

JW- I'm with you and Jack that, going forward (possibly starting in 2014), Galvis could very easily be Rollins' equal.

But this team needs to try to be compete next year. They have too much invested. So the two questions are:

1) Is Rollins that much better offensively than Galvis to justify the difference in salary? (my answer: it's close enough to be a yes)

2) Where are you spending J-Roll's salary to improve the team enough that the drop-off between Galvis and Rollins is negligible?

I don't know. I do agree with you that this is one of the areas that should have been examined because, theoretically, an in-house replacement is available for Jimmy. But there would be a pretty big difference between Galvis and Rollins in 2013- big enough that I'm left thinking, what would be the point?

Speaking of existential poetry has Andy been around lately? I feel like I haven't read a phillies themed haiku in awhile.

Any SF deal for Pence had better be centered around Brown ++. Tommy Joseph is not enough to be a centerpiece for Pence. I'd take him for Vic though.

If Rube gets Schoop for Blanton I'll be impressed.

Soriano is still a pretty good bat...as long as you dont have to pay his salary. I'd imagine the Cubs are willing to eat most of his salary to get rid of him.

Soriano would be our best offensive OF if we had him for example.

nepp - You have to think Cholly will be gone by 2014, and no other manager alive would bat one of his worst OBP guys first.

I'm watching the Rays/A's game right now, and a few things strike me:
this David Price guy is pretty good; he made Angry Viking Josh Reddick look silly with some 96-98 mph fastballs.

Amaro should give Beane Blanton and Pierre so the A's can ditch this scrub AJ Griffin (don't let that ERA fool you) and get Jemaille Weeks out of the leadoff spot. I'd even eat a bit of Blanton and Pierre's salaries for a chance-y prospect or three.


Speaking of the A's...anyone wishing we'd have gone harder after Cespedes?

Aubrey Huff just left the game with an injury - wonder if that raises the stakes for the Giants.

On Cespedes? Yeah, I said we should have just driven a dumptruck of cash up to him.

Oh well. I'm sure there will be plenty of CF on the open market next year that can put up numbers like that: .903 OPS (148 OPS+).

Jorge Soler has a .900 OPS in Rookie Ball so far too.

Another guy I wish we had managed to snag...though the rumors had us making a pretty strong offer to him.

Cespedes looks like he'll be pretty good. If he turns into a higher avg, lower slugging, faster Giancarlo Stanton that's a pretty good deal. He's been hitting like .350 since the beginning of June.

jbird - Buzz is that Gary Brown is absolutely off the table for the Giants. There's no way Ruben gets Brown plus anything unless several MLB beat writers are way off base.

Cespedes: 1.008 OPS since June 1st.

NEPP: Maybe this year, but the last three... Not so hot, especially at $18M per through the 2014 season. Not to mention bad defense, unless you believe he finally figured out the position again at age 36.

@KAS: To be clear, I was only speaking of this year and only if the Cubs were paying his salary. I did make sure to preface it with those two caveats.

NEPP: I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not convinced he'd be best going forward. He's only been better than Penceand Vic over last couple months. Over last three years he's been inferior. Cubs at lucky he's been hot enough so ar this year that some sucker will deal for him. And how much of remaining $40+M will Cubs eat?

I doubt Soriano is even MLB average offensively next year.

Supposedly the Cubs were willing to eat nearly all his salary per rumors earlier in the month. They want him gone badly.

Travis Snider pulled from the Jays mid-inning

To be clear, I dont want the Phillies to trade for Soriano at all.

15.5 hrs and counting

snider traded to Pirates by Jays. Correa?

Travis Snider traded.

Hopefully they'd get more than Correia back. Snider has had some issues but I really believe he can still be a very good player if given a chance.

And the Phillies have done zippo

Rumors say its for Brad Lincoln.

Snider is a pretty steep price for a reliever.

Snider traded for Lincoln, who the Pirates wouldn't send to us for Shane.

Obviously that should be "whom." If we don't have proper grammar, what do we really have at all?

To be fair, They're getting 3.5 years of Snider instead of 2 months of Victorino.

Snider still has a good chance at being a solid MLB player.

"no other manager alive would bat one of his worst OBP guys first."

Just scanning tonight's box scores, here are the lead-off guys on every team and their OBP ranking relative to the rest of the lineup:

Cozart (CIN): 8th (including pitcher)
Amarista (SDP): 7th
Jennings (TB): 6th
Weeks (OAK): 6th
Ackley (SEA): 7th
Parra (ARI): 6th
Kinsler (TEX): 6th

There's seven managers who I believe are 'alive' that have a guy in the bottom third of OBP in the lineup leading off.

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