The Phillies' win/loss splits aren't pretty. [Link]
Beerleaguer: Unfortunately, close only counts in horseshoes. It's the Phillies' record in one-run games, a frustrating 9-15 (.375), that jumps off the Baseball-Reference Phillies team page most, many of those losses occurring over the last few weeks. Dial back the clock; last season, they were 28-19 (.596) in those situations. Turn a couple of these losses into wins and their playoff deficit isn't so bleak. Their pythagorean W-L is 40-43. Obviously, lay blame on many of these splits on an injured team that isn't performing, for example, their 17-24 record at home (.415), compared to the dominance of last season (.642). And who needs to worry about your record in one-run games when you shut out the opponent 21 times, as the Phils did last season. They've only pitched four shutouts so far in 2012.
Here's a weird stat, courtesy of long-time Beerleaguer, Joel G. The Phils are 5-21 in weekend games (Saturday and Sunday). Weekend non-warriors. Are their weekend priorities somewhere else, Joel wonders ...
Finally, take a look at the 2011-12 head-to-head results within the division: (vs. Atlanta in '11: 12-6; vs. Atlanta in '12: 2-1; vs Miami in '11: 12-6; vs. Miami in '12: 3-6; vs. Mets in '11: 11-7; vs. Mets in '12: 4-7; vs. Washington in '11: 8-10; vs. Washington in '12: 2-4).
Yes, the division has improved. Yes, the Nationals appear to have a bead on how to beat the Phils. But what jumps off the page are the number of games left against these guys, including their finale with the Mets tonight and three with the Braves, at home, which could at least keep the Phils in the conversation before the Break.