Phillies' season filled with woulda, coulda, shoulda

The Phillies' win/loss splits aren't pretty. [Link]

Beerleaguer: Unfortunately, close only counts in horseshoes. It's the Phillies' record in one-run games, a frustrating 9-15 (.375), that jumps off the Baseball-Reference Phillies team page most, many of those losses occurring over the last few weeks. Dial back the clock; last season, they were 28-19 (.596) in those situations. Turn a couple of these losses into wins and their playoff deficit isn't so bleak. Their pythagorean W-L is 40-43. Obviously, lay blame on many of these splits on an injured team that isn't performing, for example, their 17-24 record at home (.415), compared to the dominance of last season (.642). And who needs to worry about your record in one-run games when you shut out the opponent 21 times, as the Phils did last season. They've only pitched four shutouts so far in 2012.

Here's a weird stat, courtesy of long-time Beerleaguer, Joel G. The Phils are 5-21 in weekend games (Saturday and Sunday). Weekend non-warriors. Are their weekend priorities somewhere else, Joel wonders ...

Finally, take a look at the 2011-12 head-to-head results within the division: (vs. Atlanta in '11: 12-6; vs. Atlanta in '12: 2-1; vs Miami in '11: 12-6; vs. Miami in '12: 3-6; vs. Mets in '11: 11-7; vs. Mets in '12: 4-7; vs. Washington in '11: 8-10; vs. Washington in '12: 2-4).

Yes, the division has improved. Yes, the Nationals appear to have a bead on how to beat the Phils. But what jumps off the page are the number of games left against these guys, including their finale with the Mets tonight and three with the Braves, at home, which could at least keep the Phils in the conversation before the Break.

Comments

[Cyclic]

Did anyone else notice that Brandon Moss is doing this since being called up by the A's?

24G
.282/.349/.718/1.067
10 HR, 18 RBI

[Fatalotti]

10 HR in 78 ABs???

[epicurean]

Cyclic: Yes. And all while playing 1B. Who knew?

[bay_area_phan]

With Brandon Moss in LF, Jason Grilli in the bullpen, and Ryan Vogelsong in the starting rotation, this team wouldn't look half bad.

[ColonelTom]

That's a hell of a 1998 Shane Spencer impersonation he's doing.

[Fatalotti]

How in the hell is Ryan Vogelsong keeping it up?

What kind of black magic, voodoo, sold-his-soul-to-the-devil nonsense is this?

[Joe D]

Shane Spencer...lol.

I love LA. He's on the radio now getting really worked up about how Ruiz has been drilled so often and the Phillies aren't retaliating.

[Joe D]

@Fatalotti...I believe Vogelsong is keeping it up because his wife is so hot.

[Jr.]

It is hard to tell what someone will do without giving them a chance.

[J. Weitzel]

Quintin Berry and maybe that J.A. Happ could join Moss, Grilli and Vogelsong on the ex-Phil All-Stars. Happ's righted the ship lately.

[Willard Preacher]

"They've only pitched four shutouts so far in 2012."

This is the stat that is so surprising to me, even considering the Doc injury/layoff. For comparison, last year's squad amassed 21 total shutouts on the season.

[Five-4-One]

The Phils love to close the book on certain players who don't project as Major Leaguers because they don't seem to have a ton of upside.

Yet they continue to give AAAberry all the chances in the world, despite the guy never really ever having sustained success as a professional baseball player.

[John Mayberry Jr.]

I hope I get traded so I can start hitting 40+ HRs somewhere else.

[Let's go eat]

Don't forget Pods.. -although he is rehabbing for the BoSox

Or how about the enormously popular Greg Golson? - did he ever sniff the ML?

[Joel G]

I'll even got a step farther. Phils haven't won a weekend game since May 26th. Just horrible.

[epicurean]

After posting a 5.56 June 2012 ERA, I would say that Happ still has a long way to go before I miss him the way that I miss some of those other guys.

[Let's go eat]

5 4 1

You're right.. Backward logic..

[schmenkman]

JMJ, I don't know how we go about trading you to the second half of the 2011 season. Unless Dr. Emmett Brown is now on staff as an advisor.

[J. Weitzel]

Gio Gonzalez of course. Bourn. Travis Blackley with Oakland.

[John Mayberry, Senior]

JMJ

You'll never replicate my work

[bay_area_phan]

"It is hard to tell what someone will do without giving them a chance."

In fairness, Ryan Vogelsong did not deserve to be given a chance when he was with the Phillies. His ERA at LV in 2010 was 4.91, and there was absolutely nothing in his background which remotely suggested he could be even a viable major league starter -- let alone one of the best pitchers in the league.

[J. Weitzel]

Thome walkoff was a Saturday against Rays.

[Willard Preacher]

"Thome walkoff was a Saturday against Rays."

June 23rd, to be precise.

[Fatalotti]

JMJ

You'll never replicate my work

Posted by: John Mayberry, Senior | Thursday, July 05, 2012 at 03:53 PM

At least you got to see my first ever ML HR from the left field stands in Yankee Stadium. And Fox found you on camera!!

Just a special day, Pops!!!

By the way, how's the Panamanian beisbol team doing, dad?

[Cyclic]

I'll even got a step farther. Phils haven't won a weekend game since May 26th. Just horrible.

Posted by: Joel G | Thursday, July 05, 2012 at 03:48 PM

Sat June 23rd they beat Tampa.

[Raul's grandpa]

(A few days ago in Rube's "road office"..there is a knock at the door)

Rube:
Come on in.

Cole:
No problem.

Rube:
I think we both know why you're here.

Cole:
I'm getting traded to Detroit?

Rube:
No, let's be frank. My wife hates my look. She says I look like a mid-level manager for a lawn sprinkler maintenence company from 1993.

Cole:
That's good, right? We got to the Series in 1993.

Rube:
Wrong, it's bad. She says I dress like T-mac for chrissakes.

Cole:
I don't understand.

Rube:
Let's get down to brass tacks. Before I make your mandatory trade to Milwaukee...

Cole:
The Brewers?

Rubes:
Yes, the Brewers, did you think Selig would let me move you to a competitor? But let's not talk about that...Before you go, I want you to give me a full makeover. I want you to take me to your salon, I want to be worked on by your stylist, your colorist, the works...

Cole:
Marcel?

Rube:
Yes, Marcel (writing name down). I want you to go miniture dog shopping and show me where to get a matching dog carrying satchel. You name it. I want you to make me an all New Rube.

[ColonelTom]

Vogelsong (like his teammate, Matt Cain) is amazingly good at avoiding the long ball - particularly with men on base - and maintaining a much lower BABIP than the league average. He's done it for a year and a half now, so it's starting to look like a skill rather than dumb luck.

In other words, Vogelsong is the anti-Blanton.

[Joe D]

By the way, how's the Panamanian beisbol team doing, dad?

Posted by: Fatalotti

Hahaha still one of the best TV moments.

[Let's go eat]

Can't forget Gio G... Traded away, as a throw in..

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"as a throw in.."

Eh, not buying into that myth.

[Let's go eat]

Sorry JW .. Didn't see your post.. I was thinking about Bourne as well..

On a sep topic, if we trade Vic, do we go after MB in the FA market?

[Iceman]

Amaro didn't trade Gio, but I'm sure it's his fault anyhow.

[Iceman]

LGE- if Hamels doesn't get re-signed, I think Bourn should be top priority. If they re-sign Hamels though, I don't see where they get the money.

[Let's go eat]

Mig Cairo...

[Joe D]

So if they get Bourn where would he hit? Can't upset Jimmy.

[Fatalotti]

Fangraphs actually looked into why SF Giants pitchers are so good at keeping their HR/FB rates down. It's been a while since I read the article, but I remember it being a good read.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dave-righetti-lord-of-the-hrfb-rate/

[Let's go eat]

Would we have any money left from Vic or Blanton departures

[EastFallowfield]

Ryan Lawrence:

Charlie Manuel said Ryan Howard will be re-evaluated tonight; didn't rule out him rejoining Phillies this weekend at CBP.

[Iceman]

"So if they get Bourn where would he hit? Can't upset Jimmy."

Should have known the mention of Bourn's name would bring back this tired meme.

[bay_area_phan]

"Amaro didn't trade Gio, but I'm sure it's his fault anyhow."

Gillick and Kenny Williams had it all worked out that the trade was going to be Freddy Garcia for Chris Roberson, Zach Segovia, and Fabio Castro. Then Amaro convinced him to trade Gavin Floyd & Gio Gonzalez instead.

[Fatalotti]

"So if they get Bourn where would he hit? Can't upset Jimmy."

Should have known the mention of Bourn's name would bring back this tired meme.

Posted by: Iceman | Thursday, July 05, 2012 at 04:19 PM

I almost feel like the meme lives on because of how much it upsets you and gobaystars!

So much white-knighting on here for multi-million dollar athletes. Always find that humorous.

[Joe D]

I just read Zach Segovia. That's terrific.

[bay_area_phan]

Actually, now that I think about it, Gillick didn't want Freddy Garcia either. He was originally supposed to get Konerko. But Amaro pushed hard and eventually convinced him to take Garcia instead.

[ColonelTom]

LGE - RE: Bourn, absolutely if the Braves don't extend him first. Bourn will have many suitors, though. I could also see RAJ backing up the money truck in front of Josh Hamilton's house.

[Willard Preacher]

If RAJ is backing up a money truck for Hamilton and passes on Hamels in the process, I'm grabbing a pitch fork and torch and catching the next thing smoking to the Delaware Valley.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'd bet Bourn goes to DC.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'd also bet RAJ goes after the Melk Man if he hits free agency. Was linked to him before he was dealt to SF.

[Joe D]

Hamilton is right in Amaro, Jr's wheelhouse. On the wrong side of 30 and with injury problems.

[The Hook]

mB agent Scotty B enough said

[Fatalotti]

Konerko with his three best seasons from ages 34-36. Might raise some eyebrows. Either way, he's got a legit shot to reach 500 HRs, even though he only had 326 coming into his age 34 season, and probably seemed like a longshot at that point.

[aksmith]

Josh Hamilton? I don't know that there is really going to be a market for someone who is that high maintenance. Seems like TX is the perfect place for him and if he's smart, he'll do what it takes to stay there. Are there any Philly volunteers for keeping the friggin needle out of his arm, while he spews insane religiosity at you and lectures you on how God wants him to shoot up? Not a job I'd want.

And if the Phillies aren't keeping JRoll in the leadoff spot because of a fragile ego, then why is Pierre, with much better leadoff type numbers, hitting second? Just wondering.

[Joel G]

Oh forgot about the walkoff. Still terrible.

[Cyclic]

Utley sits.

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Juan Pierre, LF
3. Hunter Pence, RF
4. Carlos Ruiz, C
5. Shane Victorino, CF
6. Ty Wigginton, 1B
7. Placido Polanco, 3B
8. Mike Fontenot, 2B
9. Cole Hamels, P

Would really like to see a Hamels "Ace" performance tonight. Is a CGSO too much to ask? We win 1-0 on a wild pitch.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread

[Let's go eat]

Col.Tom -I - agree - WP - Y pay Hamilton when we s pay Hamels?

BB-- why DC for MP?

[Let's go eat]

MB not MP

[Brooklyn Phillies]

Charlie does love to rest the first string on Sundays. So a worse record on weekends makes a little sense.