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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

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Awful Trade. Fire Ruben and bring Paul Holgren in to do double GM duty. Phillies have been on a downfall since Ruben took over.

1:00pm: The Phillies would also get 23-year-old minor league reliever Seth Rosin in the Pence deal, tweets Zolecki.

Tommy Joseph, Yay...Scheirholtz...meh

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
August 21 is Hunter Pence Bobblehead Night at Citizens Bank Park. Awkward.

i wonder if ruiz could take up 3rd full time....

As we speak Nate is being flown to the Liscio's HQ for urgent commercial reshoots.

Pence and Victorino passed physicals, no word on if they passed mentals.

Nothing says awesome like a 23 year old reliever in A+ ball.

Pence and Victorino passed physicals, no word on if they passed mentals."

LOL

No word yet on whether or not Brian Sabean was kind enough to toss in a reach-around after he was done with Rube.

The Joseph trade says volumes about Valle. Unless Valle is headed to Baltimore with Blanton, in which case, maybe we do get Schoop.

Bad deal on the surface. Deal for Vic looks a lot better. We shall see....

Seth Rosin? Ugh.

I'm totally on board with moving Pence (and have been for a while), but the return doesn't seem like nearly enough.

clout, I'm with you. There's something up with Valle, or he really p8ssed someone off. He has to be doing a big "WTF" today.

Pull out the old Madson Bobbleheads, the reds are in town that night, give him 25 bucks to make an appearance and you still please the crowd.

Word is we're sending cash to SF too.

Ed Wade gets to trade Hunter Pence twice in 1 year

Wasn't there some question about Valle being ready defensively? Maybe they are thinking of moving one of those guys to a first base slot.

This trade reminds me of the Rolen and Schilling deals. We trade talent for basically nothing. AMARO MUST GO!!!

No way RAJ could have had them toss in Burrell as a scout? He's been "scouting" on South Street for years!

Maybe the Giants have some Single A pitchers with poor control they will toss into the deal.

Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 12:46 PM

...The third player is Single A Reliever Seth Rosin (19 in Giants system) who--in 56 innings--has walked...18 batters. Got half of it right at least.

Seth Rosin is organizational filler.

Yup, we're paying part of Pence's contract...so the deal looks even worse.


"The Joseph trade says volumes about Valle. Unless Valle is headed to Baltimore with Blanton, in which case, maybe we do get Schoop."

That would make this a bit easier to take.

Seth Rosin??? really? checked him out.. He Sucks!

No Olt, no Headley, no Brown, no Schoop (yet).

Ruben, can't you see what you're doing to Beerleaguer???

This kinda sucks.


Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
The Phillies sent cash in the Pence deal, so they did not clear his entire remaining salary of $3.5 million.

We've seen the horribly flawed player that is Hunter Pence for a full season now. What exactly did you realistically expect to get for him? And what team was going to give you top talent then pay him 14-15 million next season?

I don't get it. Look at it from the other team's side and it's amazing Rube got as much as he did. Sure, I'd have liked more. But if Pence were worth a true haul, Rube would be keeping him and signing him to an extension.

Does the cash we send SF for Pence (and likely to BAL for Blanton) count against the luxury tax?

Vic's gone. Now, Pence, too! Looks like we'll be like the Lastros for sure. Now if they can unload Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Holliday, Lee and Hamels, we'll be all set.

***Seth Rosin is organizational filler. ***

That's good, right?

I mean, why else would we be paying Pence's salary?

I assume we're also paying for the rest of Schierholtz contact too...so its like win-win.

Rube is a terrible GM.

The cash to SF only guarantees that the PTBNL in the LA deal is, you guessed it, cash.


Joseph is better than Valle, and has been throughout their careers.

Joseph is considered better defensively, and has the CS numbers to prove it (though not sure how much those are worth in the minors, where guys generally get caught stealing more than in the pros). He also has hit for more power at every level than Valle (despite power being Valle's supposed calling card). Neither is exactly Barry Bonds in terms of plate discipline, but Joseph has walked more this season than Valle has in the last two seasons. Oh, and Joseph is a year younger and at the same level as Valle.

Do I think Joseph is a likely above-average catcher in the majors? Right now, I doubt it. But do I think he's objectively a better prospect than Valle? Yes, I do.

Rosin looks pretty good, but he is a single-A reliever. I would've just kept Pence if I was in charge. I'm ready to declare Beerleaguer Bankruptcy on my argument that the Hamels extension did not force a Pence trade - it looks like it did.

I do think Amaro got fair market value for Pence. I think the Pence trade last year looks even worse now, but this trade seems like fair value.

Basically this is Tommy Joseph for Pence. Which is okay, really. Not a great return, but we got a decent prospect and freed up salary for next year.

Joseph is now our top position prospect. Which isn't saying much.

I heard it was Tommy Joseph, Nate Scheirholtz and a rosin bag. That sounds a little better.

***

Does the cash we send SF for Pence (and likely to BAL for Blanton) count against the luxury tax?

Posted by: Sil Campusano | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 02:11 PM
***

Yes, yes it does.

Jack, Valle vs. Joseph is a fine upgrade, but I think that the question, in its most simplest is, why in the hell are we "upgrading" a position at which we have an actual prospect when we have so many holes to fill at both the MLB and minor league level?

Comparing what Amaro gave up for Pence and what he got for him says all I need to know about him as a GM.

pence just isn't worth that much. rube overpaid last year. one of the sf writers (john shea) considers joseph+nate+prospect as enough to 'overwhelm' phila for pence. thinks schierholtz needed change of scenery and will do well in cbp. fwiw.

#letsgoeatrice-a-roni

I am sort of confused about the Schierholtz part. Why are we taking a guy who we will pay $2+ million next year to do exactly what we'll be paying Laynce Nix $2+ million to be doing (be a LH-platoon OF)?

I don't think Schierholtz is terrible. He's a passable major-league platoon OF. I'm just not sure what he brings to this team.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what a team is willing to pay Pence this offseason. He was great in the second half last year, but I bet a lot of this move was motivated by the idea that the Phils realized he wasn't worth whatever his arb amount would be. Would you rather spend $14M on Pence or Bourn? Or neither? I'd rather the Phils find someone else for that money TBH (as much as what they paid to get Pence to begin with is regrettable)

Seth Rosin??? really? checked him out.. He Sucks!

Posted by: oogie urbina | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 02:10 PM

I would throw out the HR/9 and ERA numbers in the California League. The K/9 and BB/9 look quite good. Still, he is 23 and only in A-ball. I could see him as a AAAA relief pitcher someday.

***thinks schierholtz needed change of scenery and will do well in cbp. ***

[Player X] could hit 20 HRs in CBP.

Never heard that one before.

CBP is definitely an easier outfield to cover defensively. But I'm pretty tired of the argument that everyone is going to hit better at the Bank. Pedro Felix should have disabused everyone of that notion.

So when do we get back a career 118 OPS+ RF who "isn't worth that much?"

jesus and they are sending cash? Wade really is back. What a joke.

Willard: Because when you're talking about prospects, you don't consider positions. You consider talent. That's it. No questions asked. Simple as that.

People never understand this. It's not a "problem" to have two real prospects at catcher in your system. In fact, it's a great position to be in.

There is no such thing as "needs" when you're talking about prospects.

NEPP: I'm being overly harsh on Rosin, but when you draft a guy out of college in the 4th round, you'd expect him to have graduated from A ball 3 years later.

The scouting reports say he has 3 pitches, low-90s fastball, curveball & changeup, none of which are outstanding, but which he can mix and match.

They switched him to the bullpen this season and his numbers have improved a bit, so maybe down the road he makes it as a middle reliever. He's not a high ceiling guy by any stretch. Could be the RH equivalent of Horst.

ooops. Feliz

***I am sort of confused about the Schierholtz part. Why are we taking a guy who we will pay $2+ million next year to do exactly what we'll be paying Laynce Nix $2+ million to be doing (be a LH-platoon OF)?***

Rube thinks it is 1993 and he will go with 2 platoons in the OF next year...you know, so we can afford Hamels.

He'll make a run at a top CF (probably Bourn) and then pay peanuts for another OF to platoon).

3B will also be a bargain basement guy but dont worry, we'll have a full season of Utley, Howard and Halladay so we should be fine.

This is the line that Rube will spout in the off-season.

Pence + cash for that is a flaming rip-off. So far, so dumb as ever from r00b.

Bob Brookover ‏@brookob
NL scout on Timmy Joseph, catcher acquired from SFG: "very solid acquisition. Good job by Phillies."

Jack: Looks like you read my earlier post on that topic.

NEPP, who do we have to trade to get Player X? I never heard of him. We could use a 20 HR/yr hitter in out lineup.

I wonder if sending case with Pence will force Rube to include a better prospect with Blanton if he hopes to get Balt to take that 3 million burden. That would be Rube's m o.

Cash - not case.

The most glaring thing this shows me is that once Rube determines he wants to do something (in this case: Trade Hunter Pence) he will do it regardless of the final cost.

I hope the PTBNL from the Dodgers is Bobby Abreu

I seem to remember a few frustrating games when posters wanted to blow up the team and start over. Seems like we're seeing some C-4 today.

Sophist: I'd rather pay $14 to Pence for a single season (w/ the possibility of trading him) than commit to paying Bourn $14+ million for 4-5 years. Don't get me wrong, I like Bourn ... but he's not worth the kind of deal he's likely to get.

Instead of a PTBNL, can we get Davey Lopes back?

NEPP - Seems Rube boxed himself in salary wise with Pence. He needs to be under the luxury tax threshold. Pence makes that tough this season and impossible next season.

It all comes back to not having a realistic plan. He is playing fantasy baseball with real dollars.

"pay peanuts for another OF to platoon"

The idea is for Brown to take up an OF spot. So ideally it would be Brown, Bourn, Nix/Mayberry in the OF.

I don't think Bourn will be the only quality guy they go after in FA, but we'll see. They're at least going after one.

Schneider's back. Yay.

Maybe we can trade him, too?

Bourn last season for a couple of prospects would have been fine. Bourn for 5 years/75 mil will not. He's not that player. And I hate to point out that Bourn/Utley/Howard/Brown means the heart of the batting order will be highly susceptible to lefties, again.

Martin Frank ‏@mfranknba
Oh, and Brian Schneider was activated. Can he play OF?


Did they send Kratz down? That would be a freaking shame.

Crazy day. I'm going to miss both Vic and Pence, despite their shortcomings. I guess the good news is that I'll still feel that adrenaline rush every time a ball is hit to right so as long as Brown is there.

I thought the Pence deal would also be good in that not only would we clear room payroll for Bourn, but we could either get a guy to fill an actual need (not a redundant player in Scheirholtz) or collect some pieces to help build a package for Headley. Clearly that's not happening now, so the third base issue is still there.

The hilarity of Rube spending more on prospects to get Pence than Bourn, and then shipping out Pence in order to afford a huge contract for Bourn would be mind-blowing.

The Pence trade is ok. Paying $14 million to Pence next year would have been a poor use of resources given the team's other needs and the fact that Pence is not a guy who can carry a team. Joseph apparently is a solid prospect, and Schireholtz is solid though seemingly redundant.

If Domonic Brown tracks the ball better and feels more comfortable in center, I think I'd play him there until he proves he can't do it. With the caveat that he is not allowed to dive for a ball unless it's the saving catch in the seventh game of the WS.

Haha, I love how they slip in the Schneider activation amongst all the trade discussion. Perfect "smoke and mirrors" technique there.

"And I hate to point out that Bourn/Utley/Howard/Brown means the heart of the batting order will be highly susceptible to lefties, again."

You can point it out all you want. It doesn't make it any more relevant.

Minimart has been smoking hot in AAA. Schneider was ice cold in A ball. I expect that right after Schneider, we'll be seeing Martinez again in short order.

Jack - i feel like RAJ has already set a similar precedent.

"Wasn't there some question about Valle being ready defensively? Maybe they are thinking of moving one of those guys to a first base slot."

Yeah, that .719 OPS should play great at 1st base.

platoons force you into bad matchups during key moments of games. if they were really planning on a nixberry platoon in left next year, they needed to get another half-decent 4th/5th OF whose career R/L splits aren't awful. maybe that's what schierholtz is. (though it's true that his recent splits are worse...)

i don't mind this trade if it frees up $ to spend on an upgrade in the offseason. i hated last year's trade for pence, though--would have preferred bourn at the time.

The thing that pisses me off the most is this idea of a "firesale". It was obvious the team was out of it weeks ago. Instead of slowly trading players for decent returns, RAJ waits until the deadline and then dumps salary for second tier prospects. All the little deals over the past week where good prospects were surprisingly being included in rental deals. Yeah...we missed out on those. FAIL.

I doubt the Phils asked for Schierholtz. I suspect the Giants insisted he had to be part of the deal.

My guess? Giants did this for two months. They non-tender Pence next season.

Gtown - Just using Bourn as an example. General point is that perhaps the Phils would rather spend that arb bump on Pence elsewhere. Where? I don't know. I was hoping they'd hold onto Pence unless they felt the pieces they'd get for him could be turned around for something better like a young 3B.

Yeah, but Cole Hamels gets to be the 2nd highest paid SP ever! Yay!

Both trades getting pence and trading him make Amaro look like a complete incompetent GM

Sophist: My 2.36PM post was not in response to you. Just happened to appear right underneath.

buy sell - So in the opinion of that analyst, the Phillies score a B+ for the Pence deal (v. C+ for SF) and a B- for the Vic deal (v. B+ for LA).

It is completely fitting that Nate Schierholtz would wind up on the Phillies because I have been watching him play for years and I have long thought that he is the absolute embodiment of major league mediocrity.

Now the dust settled few thoughts:

- It is clear the Rube has an organizational strategy and that is one centered around a strong rotation going ahead forward through next year. You could argue that has been the case since '10.

- Amaro has chosen a very high-risk, high-reward strategy for several reasons including the huge amount of money the Phils have tied up in their starters, needing bounce back years from Halladay/Lee, and having their 4 major starters next year stay healthy & give them at least 28-30 GS.

- Pence trade in and of itself is nothing short of a disaster. Traded their best hitting prospect (Singleton) and pitching prospect (Cosart) along with another very talented prospect (Santana) at the time for one decent prospect (Joseph) and a year of Pence.

- Wonder if Brown is going to be the starter in CF everyday or in RF and how that effects the Phils' fans this offseason.

- All of this won't matter if Howard/Utley/Halladay aren't productive and healthy next year. If they aren't, the Phils won't contend for a playoff spot next year either.

Who's in the OF in '13?

Jack - word!

As a Phillies fan, today makes me sad.

Better days ahead I hope.

Sellout streak certainly coming to an end, no?

General point is that perhaps the Phils would rather spend that arb bump on Pence elsewhere. Where? I don't know.

Sophist: So far as I'm concerned the OF & 3B are no better off than they were at this time yesterday. As such I certainly hope r00b has plans to address those areas before '13.

Did we send Kratz down for Schneider?

Just a banner day in the Amaro household.

NEPP: I assume the Phils subtracted Vic & Pence, & added Brown & Schneider.

"I was hoping they'd hold onto Pence unless they felt the pieces they'd get for him could be turned around for something better like a young 3B."

Exactly. Use the money on CF, flip the return into a package for Headley, with Pence's replacement (Brown) already in the fold at a cheap price. Three birds with one stone.

Unfortunately one of the birds got away, and who knows at this point what's going to happen with the other two.

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