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Friday, July 13, 2012


You gotta think that if the Phils offer something like 6 yrs with a 7th year option, at somewhere between $23-25 million, he's gonna take it. Boggs would have to tell him he won't do better than that on the open market.

Still, there's a big part of me that wants the Phils to trade him in order to get a young, Major League ready offensive player (Olt, Profar, etc.), and then try to re-sign him in the offseason. Not signing him gives the Phils more financial flexibility to fix the leadoff spot, the #3 hole, and the bullpen.

I like Hamels and hope he finishes his career here. I would also understand if the org didn't give him a 7-$180m (just to pick a number) and traded him instead. As long as they can get a future core-type player + + back. If they get another group like Lee, Padilla, Daal, & Figueroa- Even if Daal was our #1 starter for a bit- I'll be quite upset. It's all about maximizing your assets.

Clearly, either Hamels doesn't care about winning, or he doesn't know the first thing about baseball.

If he'd read BLer, he'd see that the "window is closed," and that a "moron" of a manager and an "arrogant" GM has lead to widespread mismanagement and missed opportunities over a string of years. This has led to a sharp decline and a complete collapse the near future an absolute certainty. The only remaining question is how long the Phillies will be one of the worst teams in the NL.

If only Hamels would step back from direct involvement in the game, and pretend to be a GM from behind his keyboard, he'd face up to what's obvious.

If only he'd read BLer, he could save himself a lot of grief and join the flood of BLers that are jumping off the bandwagon.

If we sign him for the money and years that he seems to be demanding, what then...

I'm seeing a 2013 OF of Mayberry, Brown, Pence and Nix and a lot of innings for Michael Martinez filling in for Utley...assuming we retain Polanco and we don't have to move him to 3B.

There just won't be enough money to go around to improve other areas of this team. Even if the 2013 Phillies stay healthy all season (which is doubtful), they'll have one of the oldest infields and least productive outfields in baseball.

Hope Hamels can score runs for himself.

All about putting deal out. If he takes it hip hip hooray. If he declines they tell fanbase. Hey we tried, and we are moving on.

Here's my nightmare scenario:

Phillies decide to "break the bank" (at least by their standards) & re-sign Hamels in a 6 year deal w/ an easily obtainable 7th year.

They pick up Polanco's option.

They trade Pence in anticipation of Dom Brown (who, in my opinion, will remain injury prone & never be even nearly as productive offensively as Pence).

They re-sign Vic & Pierre.

They let Fontenot walk for '13, anticipating that Galvis, Wiggington & Martinez will be enough INF depth.

They chalk up the bullpen disaster to "bad luck", & figure all will be well once Herndon, Stutes, etc. are healthy.

This reads like r00b's secret family recipe for Fail Sauce to me.

GTown: You forgot the part about Hamels needing Tommy John surgery in spring training, 2013.

b_a_p: Of course. I keep forgetting it's not poor decision making which assembles a bad team, but "bad luck". Cole will undoubtedly lose his pitching arm in a tragic backpack dog accident mere minutes after signing. r00b couldn't possibly have seen that coming!

Is a rotation of Hamels, Halladay and Lee really a "nightmare scenario?"

Dave - Yup. says it will be the 'New and Improved' Fail Sauce but it will just largely have the same old and lifeless ingredients.

#1 and #3 of G-Town's doomsday list sound great to me. The Polanco and bullpen stuff would obviously be awful. I think we are resigned to the Polanco thing no matter what happens with Cole.

Moving Pence is the key, as apparently he could give us some significant return if moved now. And the money you'll be saving on him next year will certainly be needed.

The question is, as Murphy said last night, will Rube be willing to admit his mistake with Pence and accept less in return for him than what he gave up to get him?

JW: You mean like the Phillies had this season?

Phlipper, if you hate the mentality here so much and are going to paint the entire site and all its posters with one broad stroke, then STFU and stop posting.

Remember, this is supposed to be fun, even when seasons like this one are not.

If you really are a troll, then I apologize for feeding the monster.

I second #1 and #3. Bring on those nightmares.

And just to be clear, I feel signing Hamels WILL lead to the Phillies being cheap in other areas. It's not so much a list of separate moves as re-signing Hamels leading to Phils to doing next to nothing in the other areas of glaring need.

Halladay was hurt all season.

The Phillies tried moving Polanco last offseason, and he's been bad this year. They know they need offense. I see little chance of him coming back as your starting Phillies 3b in 2013.

JW- obviously it wouldn't be, but some people really believe stocking up on starting pitching is a mistake. God bless them, but they're wrong.

Murphy made another point that I have been trying to make for months (which is surprising because I rarely agree with him, but have a lot lately). Every successful team needs a strength, and the Phillies are all in on starting pitching being that strength. If you let Hamels walk, there isn't enough money in the world that's going to turn the offense or the bullpen into a discernible "strength." There are too many core players locked in to contracts. And you'd be sacrificing your starting pitching as a strength to make every aspect of this team middling at best.

The dislike of the idea of strong starting pitching has sprung from people that think since they've lost in the playoffs, it is a failed strategy. This is extremely stupid.

JW - If they have to move Pence and are stuck with less talent in the OF, internal solutions to the bullpen, and bringing back Polanco, then yeah it is a solution where Amaro is hoping this season was simply a mirage due to injury & bald luck.

MG- why are you even chiming in on this? Hamels is gone. Done deal. Anyone that discusses it is foolish.

This idea of trading him and then getting him back for next year would be ideal if only it were garanteed to work out for the Phillies. The problem is; a lot can change in the next few months to a half year while he's not in Philly.

I say, sign the dude and refi the rest of the team if need be...that way, when this team rises from the ashes of what they've become, they'll have a tenured, sturdy, seasoned and accomplished lefty to anchor the younger team.

If the Phils can re-sign Hamels before 7/31, then moving Pence would be a smart move if they can get a quality return. There are a ton of OF options on the FA market this off-season, and most will likely cost less than the ~15 mil Pence will earn through arbitration this winter.

Pence is actually quite replaceable without blowing the budget.

Iceman - I said all along the Phils need to move a big contract to even have a shot at making this work if Hamels is even at $20M next year. That was the point I was arguing because they don't have the payroll flexibility to accommodate it.

If Hamels is signed, they are going to need to move Pence or find another way to dump $15M or so.

Iceman: That's all well & good so long as Halladay & Lee also remain healthy & effective, but what are the odds of that being the case? Is it worth committing to 7 years of Hamels for 1, maybe 2, more years of starting pitching being the "strength" of the team? Because after those guys are gone &/or cease to be Aces, you're left w/ a very similar situation to when the Phillies had Curt Schilling & not a helluva lot else.

Trading Pence would be a mistake in my eyes, unless the package in return is very big in terms of mlb-ready talent.

If 2013 doesn't work out, you can just trade Pence at the deadline and still get value back. But to trade him now and not replace him with a 130 OPS+ player in 2013 is selling your next season short already.

lorecore: Agreed.

Caveat: i would trade any one player and your mothers if it meant that was the only way to keep Hamels.

As long as your rotation is Halladay, Hamels, and Lee you're a contender. Let's go from there.

Basically Amaro has progressively backed himself further into a corner through his construction of this current roster & is contracts the past 2 years.

Signing Hamels is the inevitable end point. What I wonder though is Amaro willing to trade Pence though and basically admit he made a real mistake there in the process & overpaid in the process.

What I'd like to see them explore - trade Pence (if there's a good offer out there), see if Shane will take a shorter, lesser deal after this mess of a season, bring up Dom to play left next year, sign a RF (Swisher?).

Hopefully that Pence deal can include some kind of near-major league ready 3b. It's not bulletproof (Dom may not be ready, signing another older FA won't sit well) but I think it's their best bet for competing in 2013. Which I think they can, if a few things work out in their favor. And they really need to try, with all that money already committed.

If the Phillies whole team was FA eligible at the end of the year and you wrote down what your max contract would be to reach of the players - does any single player come within half of what Cole Hamels would get?

I'd go $140M for Hamels and then next highest would be $75M for Doc. Am I wrong? Who else? Maybe like a 5yr/$80M for Pence? I wouldn't, but i guess its arguable.

This is the sentence that sent a shiver down my spine:

"He's still, by and large, surrounded by excellence."

That whole "by and large" throw-in is significant. And does it mean "by and large" this year, with the expectation that they just keep getting longer in the tooth with the same cast of characters? Because if so, talking a 6 or 7 year deal takes on a whole different dynamic. Keep in mind, this year is probably a waste, and the same guys will only be another year removed from their prime/"excellence" next year.

lorecore (to finish up for the last thread), I don't hold anything against Cole for 2009. Cole could nail my fiancee and I'd probably forgive him solely because of 2008. My point was, Lidge should be given the same pass.

G-Town: so if we blow off signing Hamels, what moves do you propose to bolster the offense so it is again above-average? Or are you basically conceding the next 3-4 years in exchange for rebuilding?

Pence leads the team in Runs, Hits, Walks, HR & RBI. He's second only to career-year-Chooch in OBP, SLG & OPS. It's easy to identify where he has failed this season, but one might wish to have a better plan than "Dom Brown will save us!" Somebody has to get on base & drive in runs. If not Pence, who? Vic? The cripples in the infield? Go arb w/ Pence & you've got a chance to compete w/ him in '13, or trade by the deadline.

Yeah, I think Pence is next year's Victorino, in that you go into the season with him in a walk year, and see where he's at. If he's not what you want/need, you can sell him off then. The only risk is that he has a year to hurt any trade value he has now (presuming that if he INCREASES his trade value, you probably don't trade him unless the team again underperforms in spite of him...).

Goodness gracious. When a post by Gtown is being lauded as a good post, you know something is seriously wrong.

Iceman: No. The Phillies are already locked in w/ Halladay & Lee. Worley has been steady. The offense hasn't been terrible, considering, but a new 3B & an OF would be nice. The bullpen absolutely needs help, & the answers are not there internally. Trading Hamels would help address those areas in a financial sense while beginning to build for the longer term ... not to mention fielding what should be a competitive team in '13.

I was an early advocate of picking up Polanco's option in ST. There's no way they do so now. Fontenot is splitting time with him now.

Hamels is a dozen or so starts away from FA. The only contract he would sign by now is one that makes the Howard contract look like a bargain.

Wait, how do you know the answers aren't there internally for the bullpen? As bullpen pieces usually have large extremes from one year to the next, how do you know that the players the Phillies have won't perform well next year?

Also I think that when the Phillies become sellers at the deadline these are the guys who will be dealt. What they get in return is up for speculation as I don't think they will fetch any top line prospects:


If the team cont to play this way then you really have to look into trading hunter. I am sure you can get a nice package. Not as much as we gave up, but could be serviceable. Plus it could keep a team from say the braves getting upton. And with all the free agents in outfield. Next year buyers market. Prob get two pieces for what you pay dense. And still get production. If he still has a great year. Arb number will go up. A Bourne and swisher or pagan package would do fine.

RedBurb: ...

I'm stupefied. If anyone else here has seen a Phillies bullpen piece or two in which they have so much confidence in as to forgo looking outside of the organization this coming off-season, by all means, let's hear it.

For my part the only guy who seems remotely serviceable is Diekman, but his control issues are frightening.

GTown - Look at the FA options out there this don't think they can sign a reasonable replacement for Pence at less than 15 mil per?

myno: My guess of near/mlb ready 3B on contending teams with a better 3B option in place for this season:

Olt - TEX
Castallenos - DET
Cox - STL
Davidson - ARI

Texas "could" use Pence, they dont really have a good DH and Cruz is having a poor year in RF. Same with Detroit, could use him but not hurting on offense.

St. Louis and Arizona have crowded OF already.

Chisenhall and Frazier are already their team's best 3B, will likely hold on to them to contend.

RedBurb: You could be right about the bullpen but I think the reason we can't really expect a rebound for this group is that almost none of them have any track record of success in the major leagues. Schwimer, Savery, et al have never done it before at the major league level. Until they prove they can it is only reaonable to be skeptical. Next year Herndon and Stutes will presumably be back but even they only have had limited success in the bigs. And of course, they will both be coming off serious injuries. I assume you were just playing devil's advocate, but relying on our current pen members to be resurgent next year strikes me as lunacy. Unless of course your post is just sarcasm in which case I say, carry on.

Like signing Chad Qualls? Would you rather have Qualls than someone like Aumont? Because I'm pretty sure that's what you are advocating.

I'm by no means saying Aumont will be a shutdown reliever, but the way bullpens are constructed and the extremes from year to year, why not give the young guys a try?

RedBurb - What RHP relievers are there internally who really are any better than sub xFIP relievers. Phils should be able to get a look at De Fratus later this year starting in August at some point if he comes back & pitches well at Lehigh. Maybe even Aumont in Sept.

Herndon has shown he just a mediocre reliever in his 3+ years. He's out until the middle of next year anyways. Stutes had shoulder surgery & will be shut down for the rest of the year.

If everyone (and I mean everything) breaks right for the Phils, they could have a competent bullpen but it still means they likely need to sign another veteran RHP reliever at a minimum.

Seems like the Phils have already auditioned every reliever in the organization who can walk and chew gum at the same time...6 or 8 callups already. Maybe the 9th guy is The One.

Chris: I think they probably could, but I don't believe they will. They'll look cheap, which means looking at what they've already got.

RedBurb, most 'pens are definitely a crap shoot and subject to ups and downs. However, the current cast of characters in the Phils bullpen is largely guys that the Phils have taken a gamble on (Paps and Bastardo aside) - younger guys who haven't yet had the "ups" to go with this season's "downs."

Basically, if you're holding out hope for the pendulum to swing for the 'pen, your gambling that players who haven't yet shown significant MLB success to do so.

Diekman - 17.2 MLB innings
Horst - 20.1 MLB innings
Sanches - 235 MLB innings
Schwimer - 34.1 MLB innings
Valdes - 84.2 MLB innings as reliever
Stutes - 67.2 MLB innings

Sanches (who is a "roll of the dice," to be sure) is really the only one who fits the model for the standard 'bullpen guy' that is prone to those good/bad seasons, as far as we know.

Long story short, this 'pen isn't full of a bunch of Chad Qualls, Antonio Alfonseca, and Joe Nathans, and is largely already just a young value village that may or may not even pan out.

RedBurb - Because contenders don't go that route and this idea of the 'average replacement bullpen pitcher' is largely a BS one.

Decent stats at AA/AAA don't necessarily translate to success or even competence at the MLB level. Yes they are small sample size and prone to variance.

The bigger issue is that the guys in the bullpen are usually there for several reasons - they don't have a third pitch, struggled to developed their offspeed stuff, have mediocre fastball command, etc.

They are more likely to wash out at the MLB than stick simply put because they aren't good enough.

No team in MLB would build a bullpen almost entirely of unproven, young bullpen prospects but it is largely a recipe for disaster. There is a difference between going against baseball orthodoxy (must always use the closer in this spot) and doing something that probably would be foolish and lead to mediocre/poor results.

Just like last year, 3B is the key.

Polanco was injured last year and I thought the Phillies best option was to look for a 3B/RF type. Polanco's bat would be more acceptable at 2B. Why Polanco has not played 2B with all the Utley injuries is quite surprising to me.

I thought Wigginton was a good (staying cheap) option for this season since he had some position flexibility and had experience as a starter. Wig at 3rd, Polanco at 2B, until Utley returned. Maybe made defensive replacement late in game.

Obviously if Phillies could have gotten (and kept) Beltre or someone pulled off a trade for Bautista (by packaging Gose who Blue Jays loved) that would have be the best scenario.

... why not give the young guys a try?

Wow. Unreal. I feel like Will Ferrell's Trebek hosting Celebrity Jeopardy. What have the Phillies done this season if not audition practically every minor leaguer w/ a functional arm rather extensively at the MLB level?

Chris: I think they probably could, but I don't believe they will. They'll look cheap, which means looking at what they've already got.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Friday, July 13, 2012 at 12:25 PM

So after the franchise makes ANOTHER 20+ mil commitment to a cornerstone player (this is, of course, assuming they sign Hamels), we're STILL calling them cheap?

Personally, I think if they sign Hamels to the type of deal he's looking for, they've already decided to surpass the luxury tax threshold for 2013 and will be looking to re-tool (a phrase Amaro has used A LOT recently) to get back on top for 2013, not try to get by with a bunch of crap in the OF.

"you don't think they can sign a reasonable replacement for Pence at less than 15 mil per?"

Exactly who would that be? Hamilton will cost a lot more than $15M per year. Cabrera might cost around that, given his age. Quentin? Maybe -- although he's also riskier than Pence & I don't see him being significantly cheaper. Ethier is left-handed and is almost certain to re-sign with L.A. (probably for at least $15M per year). And that's pretty much it.

And, remember, we're not just replacing Pence. We also need to replace Vic & find some sort of solution in LF.

dear god, i dont know how i didnt notice before - but Jonathan Sanchez was traded for Melky Cabrera and absolutely fell apart. Royals couldnt have gotten more screwed over than that.

The Hamels contract will be yet another poor decision by RAJ. How many of these multi year deals ever work out. Millions tied up in 3 players not nearly worth it. Can you say also rans for a longggg time.

Chris: I absolutely believe the Phillies will look to cut corners in other positions if they re-sign Hamels. I suppose whether or not that can be considered a form of cheapness is up for debate, but the larger point remains. If the Phillies spend on Hamels they will not be spending elsewhere.

Well, from the Stark article it sounds like the next 2 weeks or so will be crucial as to how things pan out for the Phillies for the foreseeable future.

Personally, I don't see the value in holding off on trading Victorino. Might as well do that now, and give Brown a shot, rather than wait to see what he can give you. And are they seriously intimating that they haven't given up on him yet?

The approach with Hamels is a sound one (make one more offer and if he's not biting, explore the trade market), but I don't see any real need to sit tight on Vic.

Exactly who would that be? Hamilton will cost a lot more than $15M per year. Cabrera might cost around that, given his age. Quentin? Maybe -- although he's also riskier than Pence & I don't see him being significantly cheaper. Ethier is left-handed and is almost certain to re-sign with L.A. (probably for at least $15M per year). And that's pretty much it.

And, remember, we're not just replacing Pence. We also need to replace Vic & find some sort of solution in LF.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, July 13, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Ethier already re-signed with LA for 5/85.

Quentin will definitely come cheaper than Pence...Most analysts had his price pegged around 8-10 mil per, considering his injury history and inconsistencies.

I also think they'll end up re-siging Vic after the dust settles to something along the lines of 3/24...similar to the deal he is finishing.

If not then what about Angel Pagan? Melky Cabrera? BJ Upton?

There's going to be a glut of quality OFs available in the off-season, and they aren't all signing mega-deals.

future BP thoughts:

1. Justin Friend should be ML ready..

2. Jeremy Horst- thus far has worked well in the ML.

3. DeFratus - if healthy, could be an excellent piece

4. Deikman, Schwimmer with a little instruction (i.e. PROPER coaching) should be effective.

5. Aumount- still don’t have faith in him.- inconsistent..

6. Finally, I think a real veteran presence or 2, (in the BP) would help keep the group together, effective and relatively stable.

7.Bastardo, Stutes, Herndon– who knows - hard to say...

MAYBE, just maybe, the adversity the young rookies pitched thru this year, may be helpful in ’13- …who knows?

Count me among the skeptics who believe this is the Scott Rolen deal all over again. Make one last big push and if he doesn't bite, trade him. As with Rolen, I'm pretty sure the Phillies are expecting him to reject it. However, nobody can say they didn't try now. Kudos to Hamels for not babbling his way out of town like the former All Star third baseman, but does anyone seriously believe he doesn't test free agency at this point? I'll be surprised if this happens.

I expect this final offer to Hamels to take a while to happen. I wouldn't expect it to happen two weeks before the deadline. The Phillies could possibly just be posturing to drive up the price on Hamels. There are realistically only a few teams that will be in on Hamels it seems. So, if Rube wants to get maximum value, he positions the Phillies as a competitor in the sweepstakes too. Even if they aren't. If the rest of baseball knew two weeks ahead of time that the Phillies offer had failed it would seriously damage Rube's bargaining power.

A list of notable FA OFs this offseason:

Michael Bourn
Marlon Byrd
Melky Cabrera
Matt Diaz
Josh Hamilton
Torii Hunter
Carlos Lee
Angel Pagan
Carlos Quentin
Aaron Rowand
Luke Scott
Ryan Spilborghs
Ichiro Suzuki
B.J. Upton
Shane Victorino
Reggie Willits
Delmon Young

Of course we're also completely unaware of what Pence could bring back in trade...that makes a difference as well.

Chris: I wouldn't really call it a glut of outfielders. There are 30 MLB teams and maybe 7 or 8 viable outfielders. Guys like Upton and Pagan would be fine as CF options, but they're nowhere near the offensive equivalent of Hunter Pence. Melky Cabrera certainly is but, if he keeps up his big numbers, there is no way in the world he's going to be cheaper than Pence. A 28-year old centerfielder coming off two straight huge seasons is going to receive an absolutely MASSIVE contract.

@Willard Preacher: Vic will be gone and Hamels will signed to a long-term deal before the road swing ends.

Personally, I think WAY too much scrutiny is being directed at the Phils' next 15 games. Whether they go 15-0, 0-15, or more likely somewhere in between, it won't change some basic facts about this team this season, namely:
1. aging veterans
2. inexperienced bullpen
3. injury-plagued season
4. underperformance by many position players
5. strategic errors galore by the manager
6. judgment errors by the GM

While mathematically they can still technically make the playoffs this season, I feel that whatever "moves" that will be made should have 2013 and beyond written all over them.

MG- doesn't look like TTI is around today so I have to call you on your bullsh*t.

No less than a week ago you scolded me for even discussing extending Hamels because "it's pointless" and "he's gone" and "I'd be 10K he's gone." You can't change your argument to "Well I didn't say it wouldn't happen." You did! No less than a week ago!

MG - So you're saying exactly what I was saying. As the Phillies aren't contenders this year, let the young guys get the experience of pitching in the MLB. That's the only way to really gauge if you have anything. By no means am I saying that all meaningful innings in the future would go to an unproven rookie pitcher. I'm just trying to state that no one knows what kinds of relief pitchers the Phillies have down on the farm and can't say one way or the other that there aren't any internal solutions.

bet 10K*

G-Town- so if they trade Hamels for Olt and start him next year at 3B, and say, sign Bourn as a CF with the savings on Hamels, do you think that is a competitive team next year? Who plays LF? Who are the 4th and 5th starters?

Also- I think everyone is casting Dom Brown aside like he should be left to toil in the minors next season. If you think he's a bum and will never be a starter at the MLB level, that's fine.

But he's freaking 24 years old. It's time to sh*t or get off the pot with Brown. They are either penciling him in next year for an OF spot, or they need to trade him before his value completely evaporates. He's the only guy worth a damn in the system right now that's even close to ready.

13-2 is probably my cutoff point. If they dont do that then every single FA should be dealt, even if it only saves you a couple bucks.

polanco(if declining opt)
wigginton(if declining opt)

Fontenot and Valdes actually might have a bit of value since they are cheap and having effective seasons.

Exactly right on Dom, Ice. My guess is he comes up the minute he is healthy and he gets his one and only real shot. He sinks or he swims. Simple as that.

Iceman - how dare you forget about Tyler Cloyd. He's the next Cy Young winner.

On the Pence thing...

Amaro has already shown such contrition by trading and then breaking the bank for Lee.

And no one should expect them to get as much for Pence as they gave -- they got a great stretch run into the playoffs out of him, and came into this season as the prohibitive NL East favorite with him.

What matters is getting more for him than you would from him next year. The context being his salary and what's available at his and other positions of need on the free agent market.

Iceman: Kendrick is already signed, so I don't see any way around him being a starter whether or not Hamels returns. I also think the team likes what Pierre has done, & will aim to keep him. I have mixed feelings on that, esp. if we're talking offering more than another 1 year deal. So, yes, there's a hole at 5th starter. But otherwise, don't you think that would be a competitive team? The spectres of age & injury will continue to loom large, but that's practically unavoidable. If the Phils can slide by (as they did in '11), why wouldn't that be a competitive team?

"how dare you forget about Tyler Cloyd. He's the next Cy Young winner."

You jest, but the Phillies do owe it to themselves to find out if Cloyd can be, say, Joe Blanton. Personally, I don't think he can, but I see absolutely no reason in the world why they wouldn't call him up & find out. Same goes for Dom. The rest of the 2012 season is about 2013.

Iceman: And who knows, maybe the Phils will try Brown in LF next year? I'd feel a lot better about that if his fellow OFs were named "Bourn" & "Pence". Less pressure on Brown, too.

One thing you must learn,It is a no no on BLer to suggest that any minor leaguer in the system could possibly help. You just don't do that.
Either they are too young and don't have a clue about the talent needed to be in the bigs or they are over the hill.
Best example,I think his name was Grilli.

" The rest of the 2012 season is about 2013."

Well put BAP. That is it in a nutshell.

Agreed BAP. This would also include moving players up the ladder in the minors to see if they can stick at the next level. They already did that with Asche. Time to do that with other "prospects."

Gtown - what kind of contract would you be willing to give Bourn? Something in the neighborhood of 4/50 or 5/65? Or will he try to get Crawford money?

iceman: "so if they trade Hamels for Olt and start him next year at 3B, and say, sign Bourn as a CF with the savings on Hamels, do you think that is a competitive team next year? Who plays LF? Who are the 4th and 5th starters?"

I think it is. LF will be RFD/Nix, or some other $1M type player platoon, rotation will be Doc Lee Worley. You either put KK in or nontender him and use that ~$4M for another starter, and have to trust a minor league guy. Or even get two veteran bums - hell Blanton is probably available for like $2M on the market worse case.

Guys like Blanton, Milwood, Marquis, Chris Young, Correia, Bedard, Colon, etc. are all available for money you could save on tendering Kendrick. Hell, add kendrick to the list above as someone u could sign back for cheap.

ah crap.. they gave KK a guaranteed two years didnt they? g'dammit.

RedBurb: Crawford money would be a non-starter to me, but Boras has never hesitated to ask for the moon before. What is Bourn, 29? I'd go $12 million or so a year for 4-5 years.

lorecore: Yup. Signed for '13 at $4.5 million.

There should be a Kendrick version of the National Debt Clock which counts every time someone mentions Kyle & immediately follows up w/ some manner of expletive.

even more reason to trade a bunch of people.

You can save a full around $4M on Vic, i bet you could get someone to pay at least $1-2M for Blanton. Maybe even a mil or two combined on guys like pierre, wigginton, etc.

You could use that money to patch up your #5 spots next year, maybe even save enough to have a shot at a guy like a Kuroda, Lohse, etc.

"This would also include moving players up the ladder in the minors to see if they can stick at the next level."

Agreed. Darrin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, & Lisalverto Bonilla should all be bumped to LV. Actually, in Bonilla's case, I'm not so sure he shouldn't just be bumped straight to Philly.

Also, was not aware: Mike Fontenot is under Phils control in 2014, I like having him as a bat off the bench for cheap, should make a nice Mini Mart repellent at the least. Could turn out to be one of the better dumpster dives Ruben's ever made.

control in *2013.

"Phillies/Rockies: What you need to know" Neither one of them has a chance at winning their divsion or a wild card spot?

Hamels is a major piece for Phillies. He was WS MVP and should be a good piece to build around. I could not argue against signing him for basically whatever he wants.

Though part of me would love for Phillies to use this 'bad' season to try for a 'quick' turnaround, i.e. Hamels for Olt (and maybe get quality SP prospect also).

My GM thoughts for high risk short term rebuild:
1) Trade Pierre for best avaialble prospect package (any position/level).
2) Trade Pence if return is high (e.g. Olt). Stick Brown out there, Ruiz will hit 5th. If top 3B prospect not available then keep Pence.
3) Trade Blanton just to clear salary if Hamels stays.
4) I'd trade Wigginton also, and leave Fontenot as the infield backup.
5) I doubt Victorino would get much return. I'd keep him and offer arbitration. If he accepts he should get about $12M for one season. If not, there are other CF options available (Bourn, M.Cabrera, or B.J. Upton). Mayberry and Nix are LF and emergency CF.

6) Utley decision is most critical for Phillies. They almost have to keep him for next season but he is no longer a reliable starter and there is no DH. Would an AL team give up some quality players for the potential his hitting returns and he gives 100 games at 2B?
7) Roll dice on Carlos Quentin to start opposite Brown.
8) Sign Madson on the cheap.
9) What to do with Mayberry? Keep until someone clearly beats him out.

Howard's contract is still terrible. Young bullpen is still a risk, but I like that better than numerous declining vets.

Rollins, Utley, Ruiz, Howard, Quentin, Upton, Brown, Polanco
Bench: Nix, Mayberry, Fontenot/Galvis, 3B, C
SP: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Cloyd/Kendrick.
BP: Papelbon, Madson, Bastardo, DeFratus, Diekman, Schwimer.

Phx: Even as a dh guy, i think the phils have to pickup at least 8 million of utley's contract for someone to give him a shot. He'd prob do well though and the AL team would get the better end. O's would make some sense.

Phils are paying KK and Blanton a combined $11.5M this season. Its possible that arb would have given KK 3.5M if we didnt come to an agreement, so lets make it $11M even since they might have saved some cash and moved it towards next year.

If KK wasn't already soaking up $4.5M next year, I would have had no doubt that we could have spent $11M on our #4-5 starters in FA and gotten a massive improvement.

8) Sign Madson on the cheap.

I like this option. I hope the bridge isn't burned.

lorecore: Agreed RE: Fontenot. Let's hope r00b feels the same. Has appeared rather lukewarm on the guy throughout.

I think Bonilla just had surgery on his thumb or hand b/c of the injury from "horsing around". Not sure how long he's out.

G-Town: I guess that I'm wondering why, if banking on starting pitching is a risk because Halladay and Lee might get hurt (and thus they shouldn't invest in Hamels), why would you feel comfortable with a rotation of Halladay-Lee-Worley-garbage-garbage? One of the big two gets hurt and the rotation rekindles memories of the early 2000s.

If they move Hamels for Olt, I think there is a path to being competitive in 2013, but it's not easy. I love the idea of Bourn in CF and think he should be their primary target. Olt at 3B should be an upgrade from Polanco's pathetic offense. But is this enough to be competitive? I don't think so.

They would need to make some other savvy signings, including a SP (not Blanton), especially if you're penciling "I kept them in the game" KK in the rotation. The bullpen also needs to be addressed- I'd like to see them get some relief prospects in the inevitable Vic trade.

Point is, I think the road to being competitive in 2013-2014 is a lot easier if you sign Hamels than if you let him go. I know people rip on the core because they are old (which is accurate), but I think they've got enough for another run or two if they have help. I think we both agree that's what we want to see out of all this.

PhxPhl: nice writeup. However, assuming Hamels stays, I do not think you can afford to buy a late inning reliever and two OFs, ontop of picking up Polanco's option.

If you want to do that, you need to deal Pence and Vic's salary - and absolutely get something in return that can be on your MLB team next year.

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