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Friday, July 20, 2012

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Without evaluating too deeply, i'll just assume AA won the trade - he is turning into a mastermind.

I heard that BA had one of the prospects ranked #10 for Toronto, thats about it.

Two quick thoughts from skimming the last thread:

1. Jason Pridie as a platoon CF? Are you out of your fvcking mind?

2. Jayson Nix cant play CF either.

Stark:


• The Phillies have downplayed their interest in trading Hunter Pence. But an executive of one team that asked about him reports: "He's attracting as much interest as anybody they have -- maybe even more than Hamels." The Phillies won't determine whether they're ready to unload until after their six-game homestand that begins Friday. But if they opt to sell, Pence might represent their most difficult call.

Hunter Pence
Pence

He can't be a free agent until after next season, so this is the optimal time to move him. But he and Carlos Ruiz are their only productive right-handed bats. And if they deal Pence and Shane Victorino, it would mean having to reconstruct their entire outfield by next Opening Day. So if the Phillies have a rough week, they'll almost certainly listen on Pence in the days before the deadline. But they'd need a major haul in return to pull the trigger. One club that could make a run at Pence: the Pirates.

Continued:

• The five players the Phillies have told teams would definitely be available if they go into closeout mode: Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Blanton, Placido Polanco and Kyle Kendrick. But Rollins is a 10-and-5 guy (10 years of service time in the major leagues and at least the past five with the same team) who can veto any deal. He would approve a trade only to a West Coast contender. And he'll make $11 million a year through 2015 if you count his easily vested option. So the chances of Rollins getting dealt are extremely remote.

"They'd trade him in a heartbeat," said an official of one club. "They're in [luxury] tax land right now. And if they sign Hamels, they've got to move money. But they'd have to eat so much salary to move a guy like Rollins, it doesn't get them anywhere."

I honestly don't believe one single word that Jayson Stark typed.

In one paragraph Stark says the Phils are worried about building a new OF to compete in 2013...but then the next he has them moving Rollins 'in a heartbeat'.

There is no way Rollins signs a deal 7 months ago, puts up his career slashline, watches the 1 single MiLB replacement get caught cheating just to get an OPS barely above .600

Agreed. I don't think Stark is making things up but he's talking to officials with other clubs who are speculating about what the Phillies are thinking. He might as well ask me.

"In one paragraph Stark says the Phils are worried about building a new OF to compete in 2013...but then the next he has them moving Rollins 'in a heartbeat'"

That is if Pence is moved.

The fact that a team in the 5th largest market in the country that will likely sign a new media deal that will net them something like $100-150 million a year in a couple years is so freaking worried about paying the luxury tax is absolutely pathetic.

I'd rather they didn't sign Cole Hamels to an extension if it means we have to put up with a bench of 5 Michael Martinez and a bullpen of Papelbon and 6 Iron Pigs.

That's not a winning solution either way.

Personally, I rather doubt they'd consider trading Rollins. But if they're really prepared to trade him in a "heartbeat" only a few months after giving him a 4-year deal, then RAJ has officially become MLB's first day-trading general manager.

lorecore: nevermind what we think of Galvis. I think the FO loves him, despite the fact that he broke his back and was suspended for PEDs, and now views him as a much cheaper replacement for Rollins.

Amaro's comments early in the season have hinted as much.

Stark is one of the few national guys I trust to discuss the Phillies w/ any semblance of knowledge & intelligence. I also think Iceman's 12.24PM post is right on the mark. It pays to listen to r00b. When he does talk what he says is often indicative of how he will proceed.

lorecore: You aren't reading those statements right or are having problems comprehending what he is saying.


his opinion was that if they traded Pence they would need to reconstruct their outfield.

Then in a separate story he talked with an official at a different club who said the Phillies would trade Rollins in a heartbeat. That isn't Stark saying both those things. He said the first one though.

Thanks to BedBeard for posting that stuff.

Interesting that they would move Kendrick.

KK's another guy that was just given a (two year) contract just last season. Wouldn't be shocked if he can't be moved b/c of it.

You gotta love a GM whose signature feat is signing one untradeable contract after another. While the peanut gallery encourages him to do it yet again.

Unofficially, of course, but has any team made more trades than Houston over the last several years to little or no effect?

sorry for the incoherent post earlier, didnt mean to send.

I basically was trying to say what BAP said.

I just can't believe the Phillies are dying to trade a player that they just signed to a 3-4 year deal who is a) putting up his career numbers and b) has his only possible replacement underwhelm at the plate so significantly.

Doesn't add up unless Ruben is as stupid as many like to suggest he is.

Or, he could also have someone else in mind at SS coming back in a trade? I know it's hard to fathom there might be some sort of "plan", even one that is reactionary and rudimentary as one RAJ would come up with.

curt is hilarious. Classic example of sniping and complaining while putting forth no ideas of his own.

lorecore: it doesn't add up, especially with the year Rollins is having.

Are they really that unhappy with his 'leadership' over the past four months? Did something happen behind the scenes that we don't know about? That's the only explanation.

Even though it's obvious they love Galvis, I don't even think they love him that much to bail on J-Roll during a productive year.

Bed's Beard: Kendrick can't be moved because every team has a pitcher of Kendrick's quality.

The idea that they go from "we need to bring Rollins back on a $30 million + deal" to "we need to trade Rollins in order to sign Hamels but it's ok because Galvis will do just fine replacing him based on two months or horrendous offense" in the course of a few months is ... well, yeah. It doesn't make any sense, as everyone else has pointed out.

It's not like Hamels' contract suddenly popped up out of nowhere. I mean, they knew he had to be signed, and they knew what their budget was back then.

Iceman: The only way it makes any kind of sense -- albeit not a kind of sense w/ which I agree -- is if the Phillies are now desperate to shed payroll in order to re-sign Hamels, & really don't care all that much who goes.

Gtown Dave: But why would you re-sign Rollins at all if you thought Galvis could replace him and you knew you would need money to re-sign Hamels?

Jack: But what the Phillies apparently never anticipated was a season as bad as this one has been, & the potential howling of the masses should Hamels go elsewhere. It's also possible -- & I take care to point out this is the sheerest of sheer speculation on my part -- that they're more concerned w/ Halladay going forward than has been let on.

Gtown Dave: If Amaro is changing his strategy month by month based on fan concerns, then what exactly is he doing?

Whatever. This whole thing is stupid.

Jack: I'm guessing Galvis was a lot better than the Phillies expected him to be (which really isn't saying much for their expectations). They're also a group which consistently undervalues consistent hitting. Maybe the Phillies think Howard & Utley can offset the loss of Rollins. Again, I really have no idea. Just trying to make sense of things like everyone else. I'm no Rollins fan, but if he's suddenly expendable that's a fairly stunning indictment of the FO's plan ... insomuch as they even have a plan.

Iceman - since you obviously haven't been paying attention, here's my idea: don't pay Hamels whatever it takes to buy out his free agency. Trade him and fill one hole with a top prospect, and use "his" $20+ million in the offseason to fill a couple of other holes. Try to field a competitive team next year, not a handful of overpaid, declining stars surrounded by pygmies.

I do find it funny that there is a journalist who would even type the line, "The Phillies are willing to move Polanco and Kendrick."

Is there a team that would give up anything of any value with any possible potential of being a ML contributor for broken down Polanco or replacement level Kendrick. Seriously? What a joke. KK is doubly untradeable because he's a replacement level player being paid $7.5 M over 2 years.

As for trading Lee, I just can't possibly see it happening. When a 32 year old pitcher goes on the market, teams are willing to give him $25 M AAV if it means one thing: they get those first 2-3 years of his production where he's still hopefully an elite contributor. They can live with the backend where he no longer deserves that money, but only if they get the beginning part of the deal, where he's a stud.

So then why would a team pony up $25 M over the next couple years only to get the decline years of the contract? Now, maybe the Phillies eat some money, but then it's no longer a straight salary dump, but at what point do you find a good balance between eating salary and getting a legitimate prospect in return. If you eat none of the salary, you get no prospect; if you eat all of the salary, you'll get legitimate prospects, but obviously neither of those scenarios is tenable, so at which point in the middle does it become beneficial for the Phillies? And none of this even considers any PR ramifications of trading for a pitcher who becomes a fan favorite, trading him away for garbage, signing him to a mega deal a year later, and then trading him away once again for what is likely to be pennies on the dollar.

If the FO is disappointed because they were expecting Jimmy Rollins to carry the team while Howard and St. Utz were out, well, that's their own stupid fault. J-roll has had 1 season in his career where that was a possibility, and that was 5 years ago. Jimmy is still a very good shortstop, but that bat doesn't play at a corner spot (though he'd be an upgrade over polly at third which might be the FO's secret plan for 2013).

If the Phillies are well past 6yr/$140M with still no Hamels, then i probably side with Curt.

And why would Hamels re-sign now, the only thing the Phillies can offer him security from future injury, but he's basically burned through all of that risk to a point where now the Phillies can't offer him anything else.

And if you think the city/team itself if something the Phillies can offer that no one else can, he still has that option in free agency anyway - so again, no reason to re-sign even if the Phillies do hit his "number" whatever it is.

"They're also a group which consistently undervalues consistent hitting."

What does this mean?

Phillies should flip Hamels for Madson and a blue chip Reds prospect (Billy Hamilton would be asking for a little much, but he wouldn't look bad roaming CF in CBP.)

Ha aw man i'm actually laughing aloud, when i read that consistent hitting line, i just knew someone was going to grab it.

I've seen many a thread that is moving right along one way....then someone throws in a quote like that...and then the next 100 posts are about consistency/slumps vs contact hitting/power hitting, then a branch into situational/clutch hitting, that it spawns into the fallacy of lineup protection, and the final culmination of why Ryan Howard is overpaid.

If you think this year's rumor mill is outlandish, wait until this time next year when you'll be reading that the Phillies have a 5-year, $120M offer on the table to Chooch, are looking to lock up a .235-hitting Utley for another 3 years, and would deal Cole Hamels and his 6-year, $135M contract in a "heartbeat."

Jack: Since lorecore's 02.12PM post is probably correct, I regret even including that line. I'll just say that I believe the Phillies under r00b think they can win w/ a few great pitchers & pretty much anyone else out in the field, & leave it at that.

addendum - the Reds clearly have no need for a closer.

"are looking to lock up a .235-hitting Utley"

Feeling irrationally exuberant today, are we bap?

So...Tyson was misbehaving on the bus?

Really???

Ryan Madson is hurt, and a free agent after this season.

Billy Hamilton plays 2b, not CF.

curt wins the thread. That was awesome.

Incidentally, I do find it kind of funny that the Phillies' FO is willing to go public with complete fantasies like finding a team who will take KK's contract or who is willing to give up 2 good prospects for Polanco, yet you've never even heard a peep that they would be open to trading Howard. Not that anyone would ever take him, mind you. But if you're going to openly delude yourself into believing that there might be a team dumb enough to take the very players whom you'd most like to be rid of, why not aim high & fantasize about getting some team to trade for the biggest problem contract of all?

Perhaps the reason you never hear Howard's name mentioned is because even RAJ realizes the idea is too far-fetched to contemplate. Or perhaps it's that RAJ wouldn't like to trade Howard at all. He still believes that Howard is going to turn back into the guy he was in 2006, proving to the world that he was worth that $125M contract.

Any word on how WAS plans to handle shutting down Strasburg? Assuming they actually go through with it, do they have a plan for his replacement?

Asking more out of curiosity than anything.

"So...Tyson was misbehaving on the bus? Really???"

We obviously don't know the particulars, but to suspend a guy indefinitely for cussing out a bus driver seems a bit over the top. Especially when the guy is one of your better prospects in the high minors. If this kind of thing happened in the NBA, the team wouldn't suspend the player; it would fire the bus driver.

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