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« A look at the pitchers the Phillies got for Victorino | Main | Phillies reportedly unload Pence to Giants in 3-for-1 »

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Comments

Maybe the Giants have some Single A pitchers with poor control they will toss into the deal.

KAS- the difference between Joseph and Brown is massive. We need a guy like Brown to improve our system, and he even fits a position of need going forward. As clout said last night, we have Joseph's clone (Valle) already in our system. It's not only a weak return, but redundant.

I love these graphics. Now we know what JW has been doing during the doldrums of the summer swoon.

Nice work, as usual, gracious webmaster.

It also shows a hell of a lot more planning than Ruben Amaro Jr.

I just got a funny mental image of an empty field, all our players having been traded for salary relief.

And since we know RAJ can't get 100% salary relief on Howard, Utley, etc., we'd probably still have a $100 million payroll for that empty field.

Willard (from the last thread): I have advocated dealing Pence to dump salary because not only do we have his replacement (Brown) in AAA, but you could trade him now and get a pretty nice return on him.

What I'm hearing about the return is anything but 'pretty nice.'

Regardless, dumping salary will ensure that the team doesn't just go after 'role players' to fill their current needs, and will be players in the FA market. I think those who believe this is shedding payroll just for the sake of saving money and nothing else are completely incorrect.

Still doesn't mean I'm any less p*ssed that they didn't hold out for a better haul for Pence.

Oh now - Nate Schierholtz could be part of deal per Zoleki

Salisbury says there could be a PTBNL in the Vic deal.

Their youngster in A ball Blackburn would be nice and perhaps toss in Panick and the package for pence may not be that bad. Panick/Blackburn/Joesph and Nate S? Sounds like to large of a haul to me, but considering we just forced the Giants to make a move might help us.

I like the graphic.... although an image of a garbage truck full of money pulling into a dump may have been more appropriate.

Schierholtz in 2012:

vs. RHP: .850 OPS
vs. LHP: .483 OPS

Now THAT'S a cool graphic!

Iceman, I wish I shared that optimism regarding FA this winter, but I guess time will tell.

I can't help but think that now that the very real probability of going over the tax threshold is upon the ownership group, they're backtracking and will employ a much more frugal approach, but I could be wrong.

I'm wondering if next year isn't a "value village" kind of year until some more $ falls off the books and the TV revenue rolls in, at which point it's almost starting from scratch (while still starting with the likes of Hamels/Howard).

It would be typical of the Phillies to trade for a LH bat. Friggin' dopes.

Basically, I'd love if RAJ made a run at a Bourn, but I suspect he'll go with a one year deal closer to the likes of the Pierre deal last season as a "stop gap."

Dont worry, Rube will make everything right this year when he signs Zach Greinke to a 6 year $150 million deal and becomes the first GM in history to field a rotation with 4 $20+ million pitchers.

Didn't Nate S. just kill the Phillies in that series a week and a half ago?

Rosenthal: #Orioles not giving up on getting Blanton from #Phillies. Of course, it shouldn't be this difficult, and it shouldn't be taking this long.

So last year RAJ gave up 3 of the Phils top 10 prospects for Pence. What exactly is he doing?

NEPP - Who exactly did you expect the Phils to get from the Dodgers for Vic?

Rube must have read beerleaguer and started doing work!

On Vic's deal: team notes that the Phillies also receive a player to be named later or cash considerations.


Yeah, Rube will take the cash over a PTBNL. Bank on it.

I like that idea NEPP who needs offense in this era of baseball. It's all about stacking up ace after ace after ace!

***Who exactly did you expect the Phils to get from the Dodgers for Vic?***

I'm okay with the Vic deal, Sophist...I think Rube did okay there.

Were I Rube, and I'm not, I think I'd be having disabling flashbacks to the day I gave up three of those players for Hunter Pence.

When I saw Domingo Santiago as the player to be named later, I almost threw up.

"I just got a funny mental image of an empty field, all our players having been traded for salary relief."

Ppl had this weird notion that there would be no price for giving out another megacontract. The price is now being paid.

NEPP, why stop there? Let's trade our remaining prospects for Josh Johnson and then re-up his contract! Who needs Four Aces... when you can have Five!

I guess people may now realize that Rube was never going to offer Vic a 12.5 mil qualifying offer for compensation.

To be clear, we essentially traded Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, Domingo Santana and Josh Zeid for 1 year of Pence and Tommy Joseph.

3 of those 4 prospects are far superior to Joseph by themselves.

"Ppl had this weird notion that there would be no price for giving out another megacontract. The price is now being paid."

Newsflash: If the Phils has won the Braves series, they would not be selling these contracts. Given 2012 is out the window, Amaro is looking for a way to prepare this team for 2013 and beyond. Of course, every team has a budget, but not once has Amaro failed to sign a big FA because he was hamstrung by another contract. Everyone was kissing Hamels goodbye when Lee was signed.

will Tommy Josephs face be superimposed on Liscio commercials?

Phillies baseball for the next several years is done. It was nice while it lasted but we have returned to the days of Ed Wade trading quality for nothing.

Hopefully, we get something good for Blanton then don't have to watch KK in the rotation. He seems to have found a place in the pen. Better to have him there and reliable than in the rotation and uneven and mediocre.

I am curious how Charlie is making out with his lineup card for tonight.

Sophist - There is no way you can know that Rube didn't have to pass on a FA because of big contracts. I'd say right off the bat that it was either going to be Aramis Ramirez or JRoll according to reports. And since neither contract is earth shattering, seems it was the budget that constrained him.

Kendrick back in the rotation is going to happen, be it next year, or 3 days from now.

***Kendrick back in the rotation is going to happen, be it next year, or 3 days from now.***

He's getting paid too much not to start.

Hey man, watch your words. I have integrity. Back to the solitare.

NEPP: I think it's a mistake. He's a better bullpen piece. But again, this is the sort of sh*t that happens when r00b gets contract-happy.

Heyman tweet: rival gm says catching prospect tommy joseph who goes to #phillies from SF in pence deal is "GREAT"

Watch us flip Ruiz in the off-season now that we have the great Tommy Joseph in the fold.

Is "rival gm" the GM of the same team as the "anonymous scouts?"

"Amaro is looking for a way to prepare this team for 2013 and beyond"

As of now, he lacks at least a CF, a RF, a 3B, a SP, and a BP for 2013, so I'd say he has his work cut out for him.

Wow... this place is incredibly negative. It's nice to see that some people have perspective.

here's my post from last night on Pence to Giants:

I think there's no chance the Giants would give up Brown AND Joseph for him.

Joseph is interesting in that he's a Seb Valle clone: Vast numbers of strikeouts, few walks, 25-HR power and a great glove.

His power numbers took a tumble in going from hitter-friendly Cal League to pitcher- friendly EL this season, but he's just 20, young for the league. Valle is 21.

Also worth noting: Joseph has a 48% CS rate this season, which is spectacular. Valle's is 28%, in the same league.

Amaro is looking for a way to stay under the luxury tax. That's the only thing he's looking for.

curt: Yeah, but at least our backup catchers are now the best in the league!

This trade leads me to believe Phillies have turned sour on Valle, who has been seen as "catcher of the future" for about two years now.

Joseph is a nice prospect but he's not a guy that's helping us before 2014 or even 2015.

You'd want more of a sure thing for giving up 1.5 years of Hunter Pence...especially considering the ridiculous price we paid for Pence just 12 months before.

"Heyman tweet: rival gm says catching prospect tommy joseph who goes to #phillies from SF in pence deal is "GREAT"

I didn't realize Tony the Tiger was an NL GM

This place makes me laugh hard.

aksmith - Every team has a budget, but the chicken littles have been worried about the Phils budget for years and not once have they not made big $$ moves in the offseason or midseason when it gave them a chance to keep winning. Not even the Yankees pay $5.5M for a backup 3B.

I'd say Amaro's treatment of prospects is better explained by either
- the fact that he doesn't value them as highly as you do, and/or
- the fact that these guys (Vic, Pence, etc.) are not as valuable, cannot net the return, that some here think they can

The idea that the Phils are somehow cheap is so at odds with reality it belongs on WIP.

I'm no Schierholz fan, but he's a reasonable insurance policy in case Dom Brown in CF is a train wreck.

Schierholz can't play CF can he?

I've been out all day, so I've missed the reaction to the trades.

My take on the Victorino deal is that it's about exactly what I expected Amaro to do, although I think he got a guy in Martin with better potential than I expected. Lindblom is exactly what I figured Amaro would want, a mediocre right-handed middle reliever. Those people on BL who think that the biggest problem facing the Phillies is a lack of a 7th inning RH reliever should love this deal.

I understand it was going to be very hard to get much for Victorino, and as I said, Martin is actually better than I expected a secondary prospect to be, so I'm not criticizing Amaro at all. I just am of the opinion that Lindblom will have about as much to do with a future successful Phillies team as Victorino--he's just a dude. We basically traded for Mike Stutes, so if that gets you going, well. Ok then.

As for Pence, I'm waiting to see if there's anything in addition to Joseph before commenting.

As for Blanton, I can't possibly imagine the Phillies are really going to hang on to him because of money. They have to pay him anyway--how can they not cave and at least get something back for the pleasure of paying him the rest of his salary?

There's a reason Schierholtz couldn't even start in SF...

As of now, he lacks at least a CF, a RF, a 3B, a SP, and a BP for 2013, so I'd say he has his work cut out for him.

What did he lack before monday? The only thing that will change 2013 is RF and the Pence move. How Amaro uses the Phils monetary resources and acquired trade chips to fill those gaps will be a huge test for him. He's already turned a half season of Vic into a possible pen piece (and he can always resign Vic in teh offseason).

***Schierholz can't play CF can he? ***

Well, he never has before but dont let that stop UC from trying him there.

"Amaro is looking for a way to stay under the luxury tax. That's the only thing he's looking for."

This pretty much sums up every move you'll see today.

My concern is whether or not this changes come the end of October. I suspect it will not.

NEPP: Schierholtz had a 115 OPS+ this year and last year. He's not as useless a player as you're implying.

How Amaro uses the Phils monetary resources and acquired trade chips to fill those gaps will be a huge test for him.

IF he uses those monetary resources is the primary question. Only then should we worry about how. There's a distinct possibility ownership already considers the money spent on one Cole Hamels.

Jack - Nice post. Lindblom's doesn't have anything like Stutes' control problems, though. Stutes' walk rates are abysmal. Other than that, I agree with most of what you're saying

Sophist - You just pulled a Clout there. Where did I say the Phils are cheap? I said they didn't pick up Aramis Ramirez, even though they apparently wanted to, because they had run out of budget.

Polanco's salary was never the issue. If they hadn't given Howard 25 and Lee 25 and Doc 10, and had Hamels looming contract, then they could have signed Ramirez. They hit their heads on the budget and so they couldn't.

It's not Polanco or Ramirez. It's the budget in total vs. adding Ramirez.

Ed Wade negotiated the deal, which also includes a loaf of sourdough bread and Lo Mein. SF offered chicken, but Ed upped the demand to shrimp, the Giants agreed.

Schierholtz is similar to a lefty version of Francisco when we got him. Decent platoon option, can play all three OF positions passably, and is useful for next season before he becomes expensive.

If he doesn't break out in 2013, I'd expect a non-tender for 2014 instead of paying him $4-5 million. As it stands, he's worth taking a shot on, because you never know when these guys turn into Victorino or Werth as late bloomers. Even if he doesn't, all it's cost you is about $2.5 million next year for a passable platoon OF.

Yeah... these trades have only changed one thing so far... the need to fill RF. And if Dom Brown can do it, then there isn't an extra hole to fill. Plus, we got a bullpen arm from the Dodgers that will fill one of those spots.

So... not a whole lot has changed for next year, has it?

I have not forgotten that the goal of trading away our prospects in the past few years for players like Pence, Doc, Oswalt & Lee (1st time) had a particular goal in mind: Strengthen the team for a run at the postseason.

It worked. We hit the postseason 5 years in a row.

This year, we started off with the same goal. The team failed, due to injuries and underperforming.

Consequently, the goal has changed: shore up some cash; use it to hopefully fill some holes for the team in 2013; try to become competitive again.

You can argue that the returns won't help us improve for the future. But I don't see how you can argue that because RAJ is trading away Pence (etc. etc.) now, that means it was pointless to have acquired him in the first place.

Gtown - If the Phils plan to spend up to (and, as they've stated, possibly over) the lux tax for 2013, they'll have some resources to fill a hole (maybe two) with FA signings.

Jack: What would you guess the chances are that Martin pitches in the big leagues?

Schierholtz is a LH platoon bat. He's basically the mirror image of John Mayberry or BenFran only LH.

Ther's a reason he's not starting in SF. He cannot hit LHP at all.

For what it's worth, I agree with Sophist that calling the Phillies cheap is absurd.

As Amaro said when he took the job, if he can't build a winning team on the budget ownership has given him, it's on him. Any team should be able to win while also staying below the luxury tax.

The Phils have done the right thing in re-investing their revenues from a successful team into the product. I think Amaro has invested it quite poorly, generally, but I at least give ownership credit for trying to do the right thing.

Would really love to see the Phils get Schoop today. Just sounds like a quality INF, young, can hit, plus D at a couple of positions. Think the Phils need that for 2B, 3B.

The "Phire Sale" is bringing out some of hte best and worst in BL.

I'm content to judge how Amaro did / is doing on the 'retooling' program after all the info is in.

For comparison the Giants gave up Wheeler for 2 months of Beltran last season.

RAJ's negotiating philosophy in a nutshell: string things out til the last minute, then capitulate completely. We've seen it play out exactly the same way over and over again. Only exception was the Howard contract where he didn't even bother to string it out.

*** Decent platoon option, can play all three OF positions passably,***

Based on what? He's never played CF in the Majors or Minors as a professional. There is no indication he can play CF.

Clout: Pretty small. My point is that he's got at least some potential, which is more than I would've expected for the throw-in prospect at the end of the deal.

I'm not fighting over a throw-in prospect. Just stop, now, please. It's not worth it.

"There's a distinct possibility ownership already considers the money spent on one Cole Hamels."

While I agree with this, I do believe that it took this last Braves series to make up their mind. The FO may have actually been committed to signing Hamels and blowing the tax threshold to make a run this season, and setup the strategy for next year. That sole series may have changed the entire dynamic. They may be backtracking to cut payroll, get under the threshold, then re-evaluate come October. If they're still money conscious then, it could be a tough go in 2013.

Though, I'd like to think that an approach for both the remainder of this year, as well as charting the path for years to come, doesn't hinge on the outcome of a single division series...

michael schwimer ‏@mschwimer
Has there ever been a more successful relationship than Twitter and the MLB trade deadline?

" How Amaro uses the Phils monetary resources and acquired trade chips to fill those gaps will be a huge test for him."

Indeed it will. We shall see if his remaining "monetary resources" are small (many value village signings) or large (many more Paps and Hamels). I'm betting the former. And who are these "acquired trade chips?"

The graphic says it all. This has been a pretty exciting day on BL with all the dealing and multiple threads. It's exciting like watching your home burn to the ground. Tomorrow's starting lineup will be a bunch of burned out cinders.

I am confused all of the baseball pundits are saying the Phillies got this incredible prospect, Tommy Joseph, for Pence, and you all are calling our GM a rube for not including one of 3 others they don't tout as highly?

clout: I'd be surprised if Martin makes it to the majors. He's a lottery ticket. If he shows increased control next season without much more loss in K/9, he's got a chance. But time is against him.

I'm glad we at least got a useful bullpen arm for Vic.

NEPP: Ok, you're right. He can play LF and RF, and seems athletic enough to play a few innings in CF, but he hasn't done it. Fair enough.

The only thing I will say is that if the team uses Schierholtz to start in RF instead of playing Dom Brown every day, then this becomes a terrible idea.

GBrettfan: r00b & his own reflection?

I was going to post something about Ethan Martin here. But NEPP pretty much said it in the first post. Really. For Victorino they got a prospect relief pitcher and a too-old-for-his-level #1 couldn't hit the Schuylkill from a U of P single scull.

aksmith - Your problem is with the way the Phils choose to spend money, not with their budget. When you're balking about paying over $5M for a fading superutility payer (in the 3rd year of his contract), the problem isn't the budget in total. It's the contract you gave the fading 3B. Not even the Yankees do that anymore (i.e., have the previous year's GG winner at 3B playing backup to a 3/$36M contract).

Schierholtz is a LH platoon bat -- a critical area of need on a team that has Laynce Nix.

GBrettfan: I think the 2011 Pence trade was a luxury they didn't need then and has now become a luxury they can't afford.

They paid a steep price for Pence and appear to now be getting back pennies on the dollar. That's a lot for something they never really needed and didn't get much out of.

I suspect they'd platoon Schierholtz in LF with Mayberry...and start Brown in RF.

That would make sense. This assumes that Pierre is also moved in thte next 2.5 hours.

KAS: We agree.

Too bad the Phils can't monetize BL's site traffic, or this would would have been EXTREMELY profitable for them (instead, I suppose that $ goes to CSN who hopefully will use it wisely - wink, wink).

When the Phils stink, BL is at its best!

Schierholtz's reputation in the Bay Area is that he's a defense-first corner outfielder. I need say no more.

NEPP, who plays CF?

JW: "Would really love to see the Phils get Schoop today."

For Blanton alone? Not a chance. Even if the Phils pay his whole salary and buy the Orioles' clubhouse spreads for the rest of the season.

Clout: Do you agree with "Kendrick Appreciation Society" because he's the same person as you? Seems fishy that someone else other than you would even bother to express appreciation for Kedrick.

While I agree with this, I do believe that it took this last Braves series to make up their mind.The FO may have actually been committed to signing Hamels and blowing the tax threshold to make a run this season, and setup the strategy for next year. That sole series may have changed the entire dynamic. They may be backtracking to cut payroll, get under the threshold, then re-evaluate come October. If they're still money conscious then, it could be a tough go in 2013.

Completely agree with this.

Unless the Phils deal for someone else... John Mayberry Jr. is your everyday CFer, right?

schierholtz is an exceptional fielder with a cannon for an arm (in right). in that sense, he's no benfran. he's also been known to pick up the slack for fielding deficiencies of the centerfielder. his main problem is that he's never stayed healthy--every time he seems poised to become the everyday guy, he tweaks a hammy or something.

b_a_p: And that should thrill everyone who couldn't see past Pence's defense ... except that the Phillies will now be starting a player (Brown) who's just as poor w/ the glove, & probably won't be as productive w/ the bat.

I will be very confused if Pierre and Blanton are still on team after 4 PM. I assumed they would be among the first to go in a fire sale. What's the point of keeping them around?

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