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Monday, July 16, 2012

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I played and graduated with Heisey, so I'm biased and want him on the team. If for no other reason than it's reason enough to watch the rest of the year.

Is J-Roll even allowed to be traded, since they just signed him? I thought I heard you had to wait a certain amount of time after signing a player.

Seriously doubt Rollins will be going anywhere, but I'm curious: does he have a no-trade clause? Cot's doesn't mention one.

repost:


iceman: A good reason to watch is the Dodgers starter Nate Eovaldi. With the Dodgers in on Cole Hamels rumors(as well as Victorino), Eovaldi would most likely be a main target in any discussions.

Kid apparently touches high 90s with a plus slider in the high 80s, made a huge jump from AA to the majors in his first year and help his own despite command problems. Is basically in the same boat this season after being called up - nothing great so far but he's just 22.

Theres a pretty steep drop off after Eovaldi(and Zack Lee), but i think the Phils could get a nice package if they were able to include some of their mlb-ready relievers. Elbert, Bellasario, Lindblom, and Guerra are all in their mid 20s with lots of team control, and each would be significant upgrades to what we throw in the pen right now - one of them should be expendable in a deal.

Rollins has 10-and-5 rights. He has been on an active big league roster for 10 seasons and has played with his current team for five, which awards him the right to refuse any trade.

gtown: 10 years in league, 5 years with same team gives him no trade rights I believe.

I know he's something of a cult hero on BL, but Galvis isn't a viable replacement for Rollins. The guy had a .617 OPS and .254 OBP before his positive steroids test, and before he suffered a career-threatening injury.

I can only think of one scenario in which trading Rollins would make sense: if Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus comes back to the Phillies in a Cole Hamels trade.

Considering LAD and SF both need SS and Rollins is from Cali, maybe he'd ok being sent out there. I wouldn't move him just to move him, but if they have a young SS coming back in a trade, maybe that's what they're thinking.

Drew Stubbs? Trading Rollins?

Huh?

Moving Rollins would be like Gillick dumping Abreu in 06 after which the team took off and where in playoff contention until the next to last day.

Ruben was at the EL All Star game and had to be impressed with Shortstop Troy Hansawa's 10 pitch walk with two out in the bottom of the ninth after which he eventually scored the winning walk off run.

Am I the only person who would rather receive back a legitimate prospect, with a chance to become an above-average player, even if they're further away, instead of a 4th-OF or bullpen pieces that could help the team now?

Does anyone think this team is just a 4th-OF upgrade away from being a WS team?

lorecore: Thanks. There's no real replacement for Rollins right now, anyway. Besides which I doubt he really wants to leave. Curious as to why his name would pop up at all.

Jack: I agree. I don't see the point in Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey. And I don't see the point in trading Rollins unless there is an MLB SS or prospect knocking on the door coming from somewhere else.

With this team's struggles, I'm all for sacrificing present success for longterm improvements. I just don't see how these alleged potential moves does that.

Not sure what the Reds MLB roster has to offer that would be available. Every player of interest holds a key role for the 2012 Reds.

If we're talking Victorino, than you could start digging into their prospect list - i see a pretty decent 3B/2B Henry Rodriguez but hes been driving his stock up enough to likely be out of reach.

If we're talking Juan Pierre, than yeah, you probably have to start looking at the likes of a heisey/stubbs for any realistic return - that or a prospect far from the majors with limited upside.

Trading Pierre:

- Imagine that instead of taking a prospect in A ball who is at least 2-3 years away, Amaro looks get a player who is MLB-established or very close and can help this team in a secondary fashion whether in the bench or off the bench.

Jack: Agreed. The problem with our OF is not that we lack an adequate No. 4 outfielder. The problem is that we have too many No. 4 outfielders.

b_a_p: Well put.

"Amaro looks get a player who is MLB-established or very close and can help this team in a secondary fashion whether in the bench or off the bench."

You mean, like, Juan Pierre?

Mayberry:

Been disappointed in him. I wasn't expecting him to duplicate his numbers from last year. I was expecting him to put up a line of say .260/.320/.430 with say 12-15 HRs in spot-duty this year.

Been pitiful against RHP pitching (.207/.267/.273 in 131 PAs) has has been decent but not great vs LHP pitching (.269/.274/.505 with 5 HRs in 95 PAs).

Don't miss Francisco at all (battled injuries and been ineffective for the Blue Jays) but Mayberry really has missed a chance to cement himself this year as a MLB bench/part-time role player for the next few years this season.

If he had given the Phils a ~.750 OPS in a part-time role, he would likely be a bench player they have penciled in for next year already. Imagine Amaro is looking for an upgrade if he can.

Curious as to why his name would pop up at all.

I see what you did there!

Jack - Somebody who is cost-controlled next year and will come cheap. Phils won't be able to resign Pierre at just $800k next year. Imagine he will a 1 yr somewhere with a modest raise (say $1.25M).

On a team that will be forced to pitch nickels to stay under the luxury tax threshold, Pierre is a bit rich.

Wait what?! Someone is interested in Rollins?

HOWARD AND HAMELS FOR VOTTO NOW!

Anguished Phillies fan is taking over for PPP huh? Still very lame.

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/NL-East-Guillen-calls-Harper-unprofessio?blockID=740836&feedID=693

Harper gets more unnecessary $hit than anybody in the league right now. Gave a smart reply and made not sure to engage in a senseless back-and-forth with a nitwit (Guillen).

Pretty sad how a 19-year old kid with documented mental problems is still more civil than a veteran manager.

Don't see Rollins going anywhere (10-5) but anything is possible. Vic, Pierre, Hamels, Polly COULD all go, but I don't see us getting ANY value in return for any of those players. Rangers say they're not dealing Olt, so to me end of conversation there.

When is the Offer for Hamels coming? We're all reading the Phils are "trying like heck" to keep him, but we're not hearing anything on it. Why make the statement and provide no update? I know that's Phils' policy. Either sign him, or don't. But get moving.

Edmundo: word.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Bad News: 0.4% chance

Good News: Chances doubled after this weekend series win vs Rockies (0.2 to 0.4%)!

74-75 projected wins. Ugh.

Rollins more than likely will stay. Hell rube gave him big contract he won't be going anywhere. Cole, Shane, Juan and Polly are all pretty much going to be shipped out. Just have to see what team wants and needs them most. I can see a team overpaying for Cole or Shane. Just the simple fact of the tight races and injurys that come up. Certain div very tight, and one of those guys could change a race. Polly and Juan will get you a cup of coffee.

Joe D: To be fair there's no possible way Guillen himself isn't DSM-IV diagnosable. That said, I find myself liking Harper more by the day.

Heck, MG, if the Phils double their chances every week, they'll clinch by mid-September!

A year from now, Bryce Harper will still be a integral part of the game...I doubt Ozzie will be able to say the same as I expect him to be fired in the near future.

Clearly a clown statement by Guillen.

Harper is an ascending star. Guillen is an ass.

***On a team that will be forced to pitch nickels to stay under the luxury tax threshold, Pierre is a bit rich.***

they'll have plenty of money once they dont resign Hamels. No worries. Hell, payroll could be around $150 million next year for another 5th place finish.

@GTown, agreed on Guillen. I tend to just ignore him anymore. It's just amazing how so many people are hating on Harper and he has made every positive change with regards to his image that he can and he's just playing the game hard.

Another positive story on Harper:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/clown-bro-beer-inspired-bryce-harper-donating-profits-202942531--mlb.html

Either the kid is really getting it or he has surrounded himself with a good publicity team. Either way it's nice to see. I like the kid. I've always kept an eye on him since he graced the SI cover. Players like him and Trout are nothing but good for the game and they don't come around often.

Too much pine tar? Who cares!

Its hard to hate on Harper...he hasn't done anything at the MLB level to warrant it.

You know, ever since Hamels straightened that young man out with his high heat that is.

"Rangers say they're not dealing Olt, so to me end of conversation there."

What a GM you'd make!

Guillen bitching about pine tar was the managerial version of Hamels plunking Harper. It was low class which is hardly surprising from Guillen. In the Hamels situation it was just uncharacteristically dumb.
Furthermore I am beginning to regret giving Harper the name 6-tool. He has behaved very well since coming up. He hasn't been nearly the jerk he was made out to be. In both of these cases he showed remarkable poise and class when alleged adults (I know that is a stretch for Ozzie) didn't. I am willing to bet, however, that soon enough he will become too big for his breeches and turn into a raving jack-ass. I hope not but leopards seldom change their spots. So far though he has been impressive. Oh yeah, looks like he might be able to play a bit too.

"Am I the only person who would rather receive back a legitimate prospect, with a chance to become an above-average player, even if they're further away, instead of a 4th-OF or bullpen pieces that could help the team now?"

What exactly are you expecting to get for Pierre?

If they can get a younger 4th OF that can fill a role on the current roster and is under team control for a few years, why wouldn't you do it for Pierre? What, you want to re-sign him for next year? Do you want to stick it out with Mayberry?

I thought the goal of any trade would be to improve? Or is it simply to dump payroll in hopes of using freed up funds to acquire players via FA?

I guess if Stubbs turns out to be like Werth or Vic were when we got them, he would be an improvement, but I'm not convinced. I think we were fortunate to score big with Vic & Werth. I realize sometimes you have to take chances like that in order to get the potential payoff...So I'm curious what others think about the possibility of acquiring Stubbs. From what I've read so far, it doesn't sound like anyone is high on him.

GBrettFan: I feel about Stubbs like I used to about Ian Desmond. Looks like he should be a helluva player but isn't. Desmond finally looks to have turned a corner. It's starting to look as if it isn't going to happen for Stubbs though. It would be quite extraordinary if the Phillies were able to pull a third rabbit out of their hats.

Stubbs sort of reminds me of a right-handed Laynce Nix: low average, good homerun power, kills opposite-handed pitchers, but is terrible against same-handed ones.

Stubbs is a better all-around player than Nix, though, because he draws some walks, steals lots of bases, and plays considerably better defense than Nix. Plus, he's only 27 so the possibility is there for improvement.

I actually think he's fairly intriguing, although I can't say I'd be excited if he were the centerpiece of a Shane Victorino trade.

If the offer for Vic, however, is Stubbs or Heisey, then I definitely think Amaro should hold out for better. If that's all you can get by July 31st, oh well. But he should bring back more than that.

Pierre, however...anything you get for him is found money.

Stubbs would be a better pull than Bourjos I guess.

disagree, i'd rather go with Bourjos - although the Angels don't have any need for Victorino/Pierre.

b_a_p: I dunno. If it's a choice between Stubbs & signing Vic up for another 3 year hitch -- which isn't necessarily the case, I'm just throwing a hypothetical out there -- I think I'll take the former.

Drew Stubbs is on the block because

#1. He's playing like dogshit
#2. He's arb eligible next year, and his HR/SB/playing time totals are going to take him from $500k to like $5M.

No thanks.

For all you Harper lovers, I have a little story. A year or two ago my son was an ass't manager at a Hyatt in D.C. The Nats had some Harper/Strasburg promotion and put them both up at the hotel. My son told the room service people to let him know if either of them orders because he'd be taking it to their room. Sure enough, Harper orders two root beers. My son comped him on the root beers, but walked away with a $10 tip, for which he was thrilled. Said he was a bigger guy than he expected.

GTown: Agreed. I don't really share others' optimism that Vic is going to bounce back next year. For one thing, he has now had down years in 2 of his last 3 seasons. For two, if you look at his most comparable players, the vast majority fizzled out completely in their early 30s (i.e., Phil Bradley, Ivan Calderon, Todd Hollandsworth, David DeJesus, Ken Landreaux, Jeffrey Hammond). Granted, that's not a predictor; it's just a comparison based on past performance. But it's still instructive, especially when coupled with the fact that 2 of Vic's last 3 seasons have been mediocre to bad.

Cool story, Hansel, I mean Little Ollie. But yeah I'm surprised to see Harper's height is listed at 6'3". He certainly doesn't seem to be that tall and his movements don't seem to be that of someone of that height.

Iceman: "What exactly are you expecting to get for Pierre?"

I was referring to a possible deal for Victorino. Obviously if you could get anything for Pierre, you do it.

Harper is 6'3"?!? He's gonna really fill out as he gets older then...probably lose a bit of his speed unfortunately but he'll make up for it with more power.

BAP, I'll see your "2 of 3 down years" for Vic and raise you "he's overperformed every expectation ever set for him since he signed with the Phils." Basically, I think that there is a reason that he was left unprotected in the Rule 5, and why he was such a "pleasant surprise." I think that he outperformed his 'ceiling' (I hate that term) that was set for him as a prospect. That's a fantastic thing. However, it's also very dangerous to readjust expectations markedly as a result. Granted, his outperformance lasted for a couple of years, which is not normal.

I guess what I'm saying is that while Vic has proven to be a VERY good ballplayer, even a key to this team's recent success, I can't help but wonder if expectations on him are a bit unrealistic. To give a more extreme example of a similar phenomenon - Jayson Werth.

Jayson Werth was originally a top prospect...he just got derailed by injuries. There was never any doubt that the talent/ability was there with him. He was a 1st round pick and a Top 50 prospect guy for a couple years.

NEPP, Agreed,the "prospect" dynamic is different, but ask the accountant who signs Werth's current paychecks if he's currently performing at or around the same level that was the basis for that salary. That's basically my point.

MANY, many players outperform expectations and leverage it into a hefty contract. That's the nature of the beast. Unfortunately for Vic, his contract didn't lapse at the end of last season.

I spent my weekend attending (Independent) Frontier League ball games, as my nephew plays for a team.
What a great time. I didn't even think about the Phils all weekend.

I spent my weekend in West Virginia. I wanted to blow a hole in my head. An even bigger hole than the one I've wanted to blow in my head while watching this team this year. So yeah, it can get worse.

Heyman says the Yankees have inquired about Vic.

Great. I really wanted to root for him wherever he got traded. If that happens, it's going to be impossible.

Joe, you're finally speaking my language!

Speaking of teams I loathe:

There was a discussion in a weekend thread about who you'd want to see win the division since the Phils clearly aren't going to do it. I ranked the Nats and the Mets in a tie for last.

The Mets will never leave the bottom of that list no matter who is on the team, but this year's Nats team has annoyed me to the point where I would rather see an alien apocalypse than have either team win the division. It has nothing to do with Harper. It has everything to do with pretty much everyone else on the team, including the GM and the fans.

They might eventually crawl back out of Mets territory but for this year, I consider them winning the division the worst case scenario as a Phils fan, especially considering it is very easy to see them winning three playoff series with the pitching they have.

BAP: Vic's "down year" in 2010 was a pretty acceptable year for a CF who stole 30 bags and won a gold glove.

I hate the way the Nationals PR is run but I enjoy watching the team. I hate the Mets and their fans on an entirely different level. Nothing will ever surpass my hate for those idiots.

I hate the Mets and their fans on an entirely different level. Nothing will ever surpass my hate for those idiots.

Amen.

lore: Vic's 2010 season was an acceptable year for a centerfielder whose team had a .921 OPS rightfielder, a .793 OPS leftfielder, and a couple of infielders with .830+ OPS. I don't know that it would be acceptable with the current surrounding cast. I also don't know how much longer he'll be able to post even 2010-type numbers. He's certainly not doing it this year.

I won't be rooting for any of the NL East teams in the postseason. I'll root for the NL Central, unless it's the Cardinals again.

Yanks have a few good catching prospects, wonder if Vic could get one of them? Of course, catcher is one spot the Phils have covered for 2013.

I'm pretty sure Vic has led this team in hitting 3 out of the past 4 years. Add the speed and defense, and you see why he's always the most consistently sought (by other GMs) Phillie.

"Knigge is listed at 6-4 and 215 pounds. His best weapon is a commanding mid-90s fastball that he supplements with an improving slider and a show-me changeup. He credits much of his ascent to an enhanced workout regimen."

It is possible the Phils can actually teach some of their relievers to throw at least one plus offspeed pitch?

Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120716_KNIGGE_IS_IN_CONTROL_OF_HIS_DESTINATION.html#ixzz20oRGJ4k8
Watch sports videos you won't find anywhere else

Victorino is worth at least 1 top 10 prospect from a team, and maybe a 2nd. Since 2007, Shane is 4th among CF's in WAR, and he still gives you above average defense and baserunning, two things you need to win in the playoffs.

I've always felt Shane was underrated by the public, but I bet there are a lot of GM's who would love to add him for the playoff run. Because of managerial stubborness, he's never been given a long leash to lead off, but there's no doubt he can fill that role for a contending team. His playoff experience (6 homers, .784 OPS) will add to the value other GM's place on him.

Now, the question is, will Amaro strike the best deal for him? He needs to be patient and let teams bid Shane up since the reality is he's a FA at the end of the year without compensation, and he's in the middle of a very disappointing season.

My prediction is the Dodgers pull the trigger. They are in new-owner aggressive mode (see: The Sixers) and Shane's memorable postseason performances against them are still being discussed by Doyers fans.

He doesnt need a off speed pitch!!! He's got a plus fastball!!!

Speed kills baby!

Would Shane pass a physical right now? Doesnt he have an injured hand that's really messing him up batting LH?

If dumbass actually has a physical reason for why he's struggling batting LH, then what the hell is stopping him from batting RH?!

I thought that was just something people have been speculating while trying to make sense of his cavernous splits, pretending like it wasn't present in the past few seasons as well.

I'm not sure if that's the case or not, lorecore but I could havre sworn he hurt his hand at some point in the season and it was affecting his swing from the left side of the plate.

I was the one who linked the hand injury to his poor performance from the left side for this season and I said so after he received a cortisone shot. But really he is just terrible from the left side.

Ice~ I'm just saying that if RAJ doesn't get whom he wants back in ANY deal, don't deal. I realize that you don't get much for rental players, but marginal prospects really don't help your system either.

Also, guys like Polly, Blanton & Pierre don't get you anything anyway. So all you're gonna get there is BS prospects. I get that.

But think of it this way. In '13 we need a LF'der 3b-man, CF'der, a new 'pen, (save Paps), and possibly 2 starters, depending on what happens with Hamels. And the Inf. and C positions are aging. And you can't sign every FA out there. So there's lots of work to be done to return this team to prominance.

You can't just trade guys for nothing. A lot of money comes off the books in '13 anyway.

I don't know if I would be a good GM (probably not), but I would have done things differently for this year. No need to go into that.

@JoeD: Thanks for the clarification on Vic...I couldn't remember why I was thinking that.


@DPatrone: Alot of money comes off the books, that is true...we gain about $40 million actually...but we lose about $9 million of that in raises to guys like Lee, Chooch, etc. So, Rube will have about $30 million to fill a bunch of holes and still have to hope that Howard & Utley rebound to good production levels.

DPatrone: I hate to break it to you, but Kendrick is gonna be in the starting rotation next year whether Hamels is re-signed or not.

I've heard both the hand, and his contract uncertainty as excuses for this year's performance. I haven't, as of yet, been able to understand why these complications only occur when he's batting left handed.

"...and still have to hope that Howard & Utley rebound to good production levels."

This is the elephant in the room, for me. "Good" is already a subjective term. If one defines "good" as "in line with career numbers," I suspect they're going to be sorely disappointed. Especially with Utley.

"and still have to hope that Howard & Utley rebound to good production levels."

And here's where I am skeptical of the Phillies contending from here on out. I just don't think these two can come close to being a) who they were at one point in their careers, and/or b) what the team expects/needs them to be.

"... & still have to hope that Howard & Utley rebound to good production levels."

"He that lives upon hope will die fasting."

***"Good" is already a subjective term. If one defines "good" as "in line with career numbers," I suspect they're going to be sorely disappointed. Especially with Utley.***

If they are hoping for guys that will give them OPS+ in the 130-140 range...yeah, that's not happening.

But its reasonable to hope for something in the 110-120 range for both of them...especially if Utley gets the Larry Jones treatment of 1-2 days off a week.

I do agree with DPatrone that, if Vic doesn't get you at least a half-way decent prospect, you don't trade him. The Phillies are much better off holding onto him and offering him the $12M one-year deal. If he declines, you get 2 high draft picks. If he accepts, you've found your 2013 centerfielder, albeit at too high a price. Either scenario is preferable to getting JJ Henry caliber prospects, or yet another No. 4 outfielder.

NEPP: I've got just the formula for turning Ryan Howard back into a 130-140 OPS player: platoon him.

NEPP: Ok, so Utley and Howard give you 110-120 OPS+. You have Pence, and potentially Ruiz as other decent hitters.

Is that enough to be a WS contender? I'm skeptical.

You don't platoon $25 million AAV players...no matter how much sense it might make.

What scares me the most still is the bullpen. I don't know who is available in 2013. That bullpen needs a complete overhaul and those are tough to do.

***Is that enough to be a WS contender? I'm skeptical. ***

Probably not...and I wouldn't bank on Ruiz as a key offensive piece in 2013 either. Sure, he has a 131 OPS+ over the last 3 years but he'll be 34 with a lot of miles on his body and he could just as easily have a season like he did last year and give us a 109 OPS+...which is great for a catcher but not for building an offense around.

Pence is a nice piece but he strikes out way too much and makes too many boneheaded plays...and we'll be paying him way too much. 3B is a black hole, SS will hopefully be a solid piece like he is right now (95-105 OPS+ with good defense but not a game changer) CF and LF are huge question marks.

I just dont see how Rube fixes this...too many holes and no money to fix it.

Although the Phils would prefer to avoid the luxury tax in 2013, better planning would be to stay under the $189 million luxury tax threshold that kicks in in 2014. With Blanton's, Utley's and possibly others' salaries coming off the books by then, the Phils will have enough payroll flexibility to sign Hamels and make a couple of other significant moves w/o incurring the luxury tax in 2014.

That sounds like enough offense if the phillies had pitching like last year.

As long as they avoid the luxury tax this year, they can go over next year without as much issues as they wont be repeat offenders. I think that concern can be seen in a lot of Rube's moves to save a little bit here and a little bit there with cash...even the Thome move shows this concern as they desperately want to be under the tax when the season ends.

If the Phillies give Hamels the kind of contract he's reportedly seeking there is no way this team remains competitive after the next season or so unless the Phillies also suck it up & spring for a payroll which incurs the dreaded luxury tax.

Hamels would only be a short-term hit as Halladay's $20 million comes off the books in 1-2 years (depending on whether his option for 2014 vests obviously). SO if you're paying Hamels $23 million a year, its only a $3 million jump on what they're paying their current #1. Obviously, this only works if Hamels continues to be dominant and can be a true #1 going forward for 5-6 years.

Its a huge gamble. They have to take a huge Luxury Tax hit in 2013 though to make it happen...or we will see guys like Mini Mart in starting roles if they go cheap again.

Jack- if the three aces all pitch like aces, it is enough. If they don't, no amount of band-aids you can put on the offense (Bourn, Quentin? in LF) will make up the difference. They are locked in at too many positions.

But by all means, let Hamels walk and pencil Kendrick and some other free agent 'jabroni' into the rotation and see if that's enough with a few new toys on offense. I bet that will work out.

I don't know ... I might think about dealing Jimmy if there was an offer there and based on what I've seen from Galvis in his age 22 rookie season. Even with the drug charge. Talking about a player 11 years younger than Rollins, who isn't much of a factor in the offense to be honest ...

Keep Vic, Sign Bourn.

Put Vic in RF, Bourn in CF and Pence in LF where his idiotic blunders are more passable. Vic can still handle RF and we'd have a pretty good defensive OF again.

That still leaves a huge hole at 3B and there are zero FA options for 3B.

I don't feel it's reasonable to expect pitching like the Phillies had in '11 for '13 ... hell, it wasn't reasonable to expect it even then. The top of the rotation all stayed basically healthy & pitched lights-out, & both the bottom of the rotation & the bullpen were better than they ought to have been. Everything fell into place almost perfectly. The Phillies pitching staff of '11 wasn't just good, it was historically good. Assuming that it has anything but the faintest chance of happening again next season is asking for disappointment.

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