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Thursday, July 26, 2012

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Hopefully a 2014 rotation candidate. K/9 rate isn't great, but he's a heavy GB pitcher I think...

I believe Misch has a bad elbow but who really cares.

Last stop before Citizens Bank Park (or the Houston Astros)!

I was at the R-Phils game last night when he beat Altoona, 6-1....he had good control and few balls hit hard off of him.

If Pettibone is our #1 prospect. . . . I don't know what to say, that'd just be sad. Have to believe Biddle will be #1. What's Pettibone's ceiling at this point a #3? Not that there's anything wrong with that. We can use those. Especially cheap ones like Worely has been.

I guess we'll be seeing a lot more butchery at 3B with Wigginton.

There's also always the outside chance that you-know-who is called up to fill Polanco's spot.

Fontenot should at least platoon at third.

It's impossible to know for sure but one likely reason for Vic's subpar play this year could be his worrying about leaving town. It's no secret that he would love to stay. If that's the case, going to arb and getting him on another one year deal might not be the greatest idea. He would just be in another walk year and we can see how that worked out. Having said that, as frustrating as he is, I'd be sorry to see him go. He is one of my favorites. It has been a blast watching this team celebrate all of these recent walkoffs. It's obvious that it is a tight group and I think Vic is a part of that, but in the end there is no room for sentimentality in professional sports. These are just business decisions.

F*ck Mini Mart. We need another Lunar Landing.

If Vistorino accepts arb you can still sign him to a longer deal. 2-$18m? 3-$30m? I don't know what it would take. But those sound like good deals to me for a guy who was a 3-5 WAR player the past 4 years. this NBC report on the Reds turning down a deal fits my thoughts on these deals- we aren't asking for much and teams still aren't interested:

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/blogs/philthy-stuff/MLB-Trade-Rumors-Reds-Shane-Victorino-Trade-163860326.html

Pettibone's ceiling is #3 but he more likely ends up as a 4/5 guy. Good, heavy fastball and a good changeup. He can touch 95 mph but he sits low 90s.

So the offer was made for Ondrusek straight up and the Reds said no?

BL would have flipped if that happened. And the fact that the Reds said no tells you all you need to know about Vic's value.

Waiting for the inevitable Mini-mart callup.

RedBurb/Iceman: I left my response to you idiots in the last thread where it belongs. Not surprisingly, you were flat wrong.

Pettibone is a command and control guy, the sort of pitcher who doesn't get much repsect from BL posters. His fastball is very hittable, so he lives and dies on getting his breaking stuff over, getting ahead in the count, avoid predictable pitch patterns etc. etc.

I have a bit of bias towards guys like this since most others trash them, but they are also more fun to watch than the guys who just rear back and fire.

What are Martinez's numbers in AAA, anyway? I've been basking in his absence & haven't bothered to look it up?

Jon Garland

GTown: Mini-Mart is tearing iup the Int. League with a slahg line of .253/.317/.385

"Pettibone could replace one of several starters in the IronPigs rotation, including struggling veteran Scott Elarton or left-hander Pat Misch, who has also been spotty and is currently on the disabled list."

Or in my fantasy, he'd replace Cloyd, who is called up after we trade Blanton (either for a bag of balls without us paying any salary, or with us paying half-salary and getting a sort-of prospect).


RedBurb: You're full of sh*it, as usual. Nix's last game before he went on the DL was 9 May, the 32nd game of the season. Here's the starting breakdown for LF in those games --

Pierre - 20 GS in LF

Mayberry - 8 GS in LF

Nix - 4 GS in LF

So if the LF platoon was supposed to be Nix & Mayberry, as you claim, why the f*ck was Pierre starting in LF in ~63% of the games played BEFORE Nix was injured?

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Thursday, July 26, 2012 at 03:06 PM


Again you fail to comprehend simple sentences. I said the plan was to platoon Mayberry/Nix, I never said that the manager followed the plan. Pierre was a minor league signing who overperformed in ST. UC played him more to try and catch lightning in a bottle, and I guess in some ways he did.

And again with the name calling. Only those who have no argument have to name call.

Nix was too busy playing 1B for some odd reason...despite never having played there before this year.

It's either Frandsen or Mini-Mart. My money is on Mini-Mart.

sophist: Good comp!

It's impossible to know for sure but one likely reason for Vic's subpar play this year could be his worrying about leaving town. It's no secret that he would love to stay.

Vic rejected a 3yr/$30M offer this off-season. I think money/years is most important to him.

If Pettibone becomes a sold 3/4 for the Phillies, I won't complain. That's a valuable commodity, which has been shown this year with injuries to Doc and Lee.

Vic may have rejected a 3/$30m coming off a season with a 130 ops+ but then he put up a 90 ops+. Something tells me his value has dropped a bit. Plus, as has been mentioned, it's a strong OF free agent class this year.

Mayberry/Nix was supposed to be the platoon in LF. Nix got hurt and Pierre filled in admirably.

Posted by: RedBurb | Thursday, July 26, 2012 at 02:30 PM


"Pierre filled in admirably" once Nix got hurt? Demonstrably FALSE. And if you don't enjoy being viewed as an idiot, don't make idiotic posts.

clout: I was afraid of that. It'll look like improvement.

***sophist: Good comp!***

Jon Garland is the name most often thrown around for Jon Pettibone.

I also concur with this comp.

I too hope Cloyd and Pettibone succeed, but I should warn you that if they do hit their ceilings, they are Kyle Kendrick and Jon Garland, two people much hated on this blog.

G-Town: here is what you said, which I will present unedited and without name-calling:

"This is the same GM who thought Pierre/Mayberry made for a good LF..."

That is "demonstrably FALSE," which is all Redburb is saying. He was signed off the scrap heap as a spare OF piece. Cholly fell in love with him in ST and he outperformed everyone's expectations. That is why he was starting most of the time even before Nix's injury. Had nothing to do with Amaro's intentions when he signed him.

Manuel also got the brilliant idea that Nix should play at 1B, probably coinciding with the realization that Thome couldn't do it anymore.

Anyway, enough facts. You may now return to your alternate version of reality.

Both "big boys" with similar skill sets. Hopefully, outside of mimicking his strike-throwing and FB tendancies, Pettibone (awesome name) can mimick his durability.

Gtown - So you are saying that Pierre was signed to be the everyday left fielder? I find that incredibly hard to believe considering they gave him a minor league deal.

sophist: I hope so too. TRhe heavy fastball NEPP refers to is a 2-seamer with late sinking and breaking action that batters pound into the ground. He throws that in the low 90s. he qalso throws a 4-seamer, which is how he touches 95 on the gun from time to time, but that pitch is quite hittable if the batter is looking for it. Because of his 2-seamer, his changeup and his slider, the batter often isn't.

Mini Mart is absolutely the right call, as much as I'm loath to say it.

@gtown: yep. Even if it was mil deal, if it was a "show us what you got first" type of deal, there would be escalators in there for games played, etc... and there's nothing according to cots'. Just a straight 800k

Weitzel: Bite your tongue.

RedBurb/Iceman: If you can find me any article in which r00b stated that he signed Nix to be his LF in '12, I'd love to see it. That was a Beerleaguer assumption, nothing more. It's also curious that he didn't let Charlie in on that secret.

Regardless, I'm not going to drag this out because it has nothing to do w/ this thread. Honestly I'm ashamed of myself for stooping to the gotcha playing level of childish BS you all appear to revel in. Consider yourselves ignored, & I'd be pleased if you'd return the favor.

Mini Mart is never the right call.

clout's scouting report on Pettibone is very accurate.

Mini Mart is absolutely the right call, as much as I'm loath to say it.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Thursday, July 26, 2012 at 03:40 PM

Is his defense really that much of an upgrade over Fontenot or Luna?

Mini Mart is never the right call.

This should be carved in stone somewhere prominent.

I await being amazed when Vic turns down a 12 million dollar qualifying offer this offseason.

Nobody wants to give up even a mediocre reliever for his services. But somehow, he's worth 12 million dollars.

I am a fan of shorter contracts for aging players. But I am stunned that anyone thinks Vic is worth that much at this point. He turned down 3/30 before the season. He'll be lucky to get 12 mil over two years. And I don't want to be the GM who gives him that contract.

You leave yourself too vulnerable defensively. Quite honestly, that's all Polanco is anymore - just a glove at one position. At least in Mini-Mart he can back up Fontenot and play a couple of positions. Keep in mind you're still controlling Utley's workload.

They already have a better version of Luna in Ty Wigginton.

The stock value of BL shares tumbles dramatically on the NASDAQ as Mark Zuckerberg dumps his holdings after reading that Jason Weitzel approves of a Mini Mart promotion. Oh, wait is that a pig flying outside my 20th floor window?

aksmith: Nobody wants to give up 5 or 6 years of a reliever for 2 months of his services. A little bit different than what you suggest.

You wouldn't want to give him 2 years, $12M? Why not? He was a 6-win player just last year. Even this year, he's been a league-average bat with above-average defense at a premium position.

Where would you like to set the over/under on total contract value Victorino gets in the offseason? I'd like to have a friendly Beerleaguer bet on that.

I think it may be Frandsen who replaces Polanco.

Mini-Mart may actually be preferable to Frandsen in terms of usefulness, but I'm afraid Manuel will overuse him (again).

If Polanco misses 20 games, I'd rather see Fontenot 17 times and Frandsen 3 times than Fontenot 12 times and Martinez 8 times.

My fear is that if Polly misses 20 games we'd see Mini Mart 20 times.

That's what happened when Galvis went down.

David DeJesus (age 32 and 33): 2/$10M

Coco Crisp (age 32 and 33): 2/$14M

Vic is better than both of these players offensively and defensively. He's having a down year, but 3/30 is a nice price point for him. Wouldn't be surprised if he agrees to a deal right around there this offseason. 32-year-olds rarely take AAV paycuts.

clout - hopefully that changeup means he has an easier time than Kendrick (assuming Pettibone continues this track)

Mini Mart is versatile. He does versatile things, thinks versatile thoughts and acts in a versatile way. He brings a certain, shall we say, versatility to the team.

Mini Mart has gotten a couple starts in CF too at Lehigh...which means he's completely ready to step into the starter's role once we trade Vic.

sophist: Yes. I think Cloyd is more KK than Pettibone.

I'm not sure who I prefer at this point. Maybe Pete Orr should enter back into the conversation...or maybe not.

Let's just get Kratz a third baseman's glove - he has a perfect minor league fielding percentage over there in a whopping 3 chances (2 games played.)

For that matter, Kratz also has games in 1B, CF, RF and P. Now that's versatility!

It is very likely that Vic gets more than what aksmith is claiming he will get. Almost a lock, I'd say.

There is this weird belief on BL that if a player is having a bad season, he'll be garbage forever. Look at the season Vic had just last year. There will be a club that pays for the hope that he bounces back at least a little bit, and there's a great chance that he will.

At $12 million for one year, I don't think that would be the worst chance in the world to take. But since we already know they're shopping him, it's pretty clear that's not going to happen.

Longshot but what if they activate Schneider and leave Kratz as an extra bat off the bench instead of bringing Mini Mart back up.

With Fontenot on the roster, we dont really need Mini Mart.

What if Fontenot starts at second?

I'll say this: if Martinez gets recalled & winds up starting at 3B over Fontenot, I'll most likely self-immolate. So at least many of you will get that out of an otherwise unequivocally horrible occurrence.

***What if Fontenot starts at second?***

Just go with 3 infielders...this is still an improvement on having Mini Mart on the 25 man.

Or just go with Wigginton at 3B as that's what UC has been doing anyway.

First, I'm a big booster of Victorino. Loved when they picked him up and was very sure he would succeed.

Second, this team cannot likely afford to tender Vic, especially if he accepts, which I consider likely.

Third, he's worth about what he got paid for the last three years and no more.

Fourth, I'd rather have Bourne, but he'll be a lot more expensive.

DH Phils - I'm looking at other contracts around baseball and I'm going to backtrack a bit. I'm going to say he gets no more than 2/15. Gentleman's bet?

What if Fontenot starts at second?

Then I guess it's back to Wes Wigginton.

clout: Cloyd's ceiling may be KK, but at least he'd only cost 17% as much.

And as I posted yesterday, I'd get creative at third base. Give Chooch a third baseman's mitt and let him play there against lefties. Catch against righties. And let someone like Fontenot platoon at third, while Kratz and a third catcher split the "chooch at third" days behind the plate.

You keep your best hitter in the lineup every day. And you rest his aching ankle and prolong his career. And you grab a cheap third catcher to split time with Chooch and Kratz.

If Ruiz can handle third base, I would do this to solve a couple of problems at once. I remember the Reds moving Johnny Bench to third when he couldn't play anymore. Why wait? Unless Ruiz can't play third.

Mini Mart raises goats on his farm in the Dominican Republic. In the offseason Rube and Cholly visit and spend time vacationing with the animals. One of Mini Mart's hobbies is photography. He takes photos of his animals using his special night vision telephoto lenses. You don't think.....

Just don't see the Phils leaving their defense vulnerable like that. Wigginton at third, protecting a lead? Just not their style. Mini-Mart's entire existence is proof of that. Spent all season on the 2011 roster. Mini-Mart and Valdez.

Wow, I got excoriated before the season when I said Wigginton was the reincarnation of Wes Helms at third. Now other people are calling him Wes Wigginton. I guess it's tough being an early adopter.

JW - Charlie left the Phillies defense in just that position yesterday by leaving in Wiggy when Fontenot was sitting on the bench, and the other team had no lefties in the pen.

So, you're right, they shouldn't leave the defense at third up to Wiggy. But they certainly did yesterday and it almost cost them the game.

As a Reading fan, I hate to lose Pettibone just after watching him best Altoona's hot fireballing prospect last night. I wish him good-luck and continued improvement. I believe he will eventually be a top-line pitcher in the majors!

aksmith: You could not have been more disappointingly correct. Although, in fairness, Helms wasn't nearly as bad at 3B.

"So, you're right, they shouldn't leave the defense at third up to Wiggy. But they certainly did yesterday and it almost cost them the game."

Exactly - and they'll learn from that. Only reason they did that is because they didn't have the extra defender handy.

aksmith: I totally agree. I suggested this a few days ago and posters seemed to think it was the dumbest thing they'd ever heard. I love the fact that Ruiz's offense is now good enough to justify a little experimentation (beyond late-inning emergencies).

That's not to say 1.) that it will work or 2.) that Ruiz can reasonably be expected to sustain a level of production that warrants his retention after the inevitable defensive decline. It's simply a fun conversation to have, especially considering its unlikeliness at any point in the past.

Not sure if I made this clear, but I mean that I think a little bit of work for Ruiz at 3B might be fun and bear fruit in the long run.

Vic made $17M in the last 2 seasons. I'd be surprised if he took a cut in both years and dollars from that. Who knows. I doubt his ceiling is just a shade higher than David DeJesus' contract.

What I'd like to know is why Charlie is so loathe to start Fontenot at 3B. A mistrust of his defensive skills is possible, save for (a) Fontenot's epic fail of a day in the field occurred when he was playing 2B, not 3B, & (b) I'm assuming Charlie has been awake to watch Wigginton butcher the hot corner beyond any reasonable fear of starting Fontenot. Besides which, Wigginton is batting a pitiful .234 BA/.305 OBP/.373 SLG ... that can't possibly be good enough to justify claiming Ty's bat as an example in his favor.

aksmith- whoever excoriated you is an idiot. You're not the only one who voiced concern that Wig was Helmsish before the season started.

NEPP, I like your idea of Mini Mart playing CF when Vic departs. I can see it now, the announcers say, "he looks small, but that's only because he's so far away." I think he should stay far away, like in Lehigh Valley.

I think the difference was/is, Helms was brought in to be the everyday 3B whereas Wiggington is looked at as a bench piece who gets an occasional start at 3B.

aksmith: I'll go farther, let's make the over/under for the gentleman's bet $25M.

They're both chubby white guys who didn't/haven't performed all that well in the Phils uniform, but their career arcs are nothing alike.

I think we can all agree that this entire discussion of "sweeping the Braves" becomes not much more than a pipe dream when the subsequent conversation is largely focused on the relative merits of "Mini Mart vs. Frandsen vs. Luna."

GTown_Dave, I think the reticence is due to not only to Fontenot's mediocre-to-bad defense, but also his terrible splits: he is .348/.388/.405 vs. RHP and .067/.176/.067 against LHP this year. Of course, this does not explain why Fontenot sat against RHP for two straight games, but it does explain why he hasn't been handed the starting job permanently during Polanco's injury time.

Marlins are in sell mode, maybe we can get Gregg Dobbs back from them to solve our 3B issues.

(Just kidding- but some of the trade deadline rumors make less sense)

86 G, 285 PA, 59 H, 17 XBH, 94 TB, 9 HR, 27 BB, 63K, .234 BA/.305 OBP/.373 SLG/83 OPS+

89 G, 246 PA, 55 21 H, XBH, 92 TB, 8 HR, 12 BB, 67 K, .237 BA/.276 OBP/.397 SLG/80 OPS+


First line is Wigginton's, second is Mayberry's. Ty's only decided edge is in BBs, but I figure that's offset by their respective difference in fielding ability. So they're essentially the same annoying disappointment of a player, only Mayberry's making $495K, & Wigginton's making $4 million ($2 million from the Phillies & $2 million from the Rockies).

I can't imagine the Phils picking up Wigginton's contract ($4 million, all Phillies) for '13, which means he'll have cost the team $2.5 million (includes the $500K buyout) for contributing practically nothing.

So anytime you're pissed w/ Mayberry, remember: it'll cost more just to get rid of Wigginton than it did to pay Mayberry for the whole damn '12 season.

Orioles would have tried really hard for Polanco had he not hit the DL. Of course, we could have been done with him two weeks ago had Rube not needed two top prospects for him. *sigh*

epicurean: Good point RE: the splits. I think I might take the .067 BA vs. LHP now, though.

The defensive replacement was not handy?

Had Fontenot had a bathroom emergency during the late innings of yesterday's game?

And DH - I'll take that gentleman's bet. I say less than 25 mil for two years and you say more. And if it's exactly 25 mil, you win.

And I'd also say that Sophist made the point the Vic earned more than what I'd predicted during the last two years. But that's a backloaded 3/22 contract. So on the average annual value he did not make more than that. I think that's a bit of cherry picking to count only the last two years of a three year backloaded contract.

Considering the alternatives, I think I have to agree, GTown.

aksmith: I'm thinking in terms of total contract value, so under my proposal, I would also win if he signs for 3 years/$26M. Agreed?

Just for fun I looked up the respective Defensive Runs Saved at 3B for Polanco & Wigginton this season. None of these stats are great, but I thought it might be interesting as a simple comparative between what we've seen when we go from Polanco (bad back & all) to Wigginton. So --

Polanco is a +4

Wigginton is a staggering -51

New Thread ==>

I agree with DH Phils that Shane will get a better contract than many on here are anticipating.

People seem to be taking Shanes stat line this season and assuming that's the player that teams will be buying.

Generally, teams are intelligent enough to understand that a player is more than just what he did last season. Shane has put together five seasons of being an above-average player. Three bad months doesn't change that. I think somewhere in the 3/25-30 range is just about right.

DH - I'm going to say 3/26 may be about right for what he gets. But I'll take the under.

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