Lee, Phillies try to declare independence from misery

Game chat: Not sure how many of you are engaging in Beerleaguer or watching today's game, but for those of you sticking it out, here's a topic worth exploring. Did the Phillies see it coming? At least some of it? Think back to November and early December when Jimmy Rollins was still unsigned and Aramis Ramirez was still on the market. Interest in Ramirez was legitimate enough that Phillies team adviser Pat Gillick traveled to the Dominican Republic to meet with him in person. The concept of signing Ramirez, trading Polanco and allowing Rollins to walk was a track the Phils must have strongly considered. Throw Michael Cuddyer into the mix, as a possibility at a number of positions, including left field, and it definitely shows the Phils had some inclination the left side of the field wasn't going to get it done, specifically, doubts about Polanco, who has a robust 81 OPS+ and has taken the field more than anyone would prefer, and John Mayberry Jr., who is a major disappointment at .226/.262/.377. With Mayberry, there was definitely some mistrust since the Phils went out and signed Juan Pierre, Laynce Nix and also brought Scott Podsednik to camp; the Nix injury being one of the more underrated misfortunes of the season, along with Domonic Brown's stunted development.

Just something to consider as you watch Cliff Lee try for his first win. The Phils, who suffered an 11-1 ambush Tuesday night, have lost six in a row.

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Comments

[Jack]

Josh Willingham would sure like nice in LF this year. Frankly, the Phils could've gotten him last year at the deadline for a lot smaller price than Pence was going to cost in prospects.

But Willingham does things like get on base and hit for power, and obviously that's not something the Phillies are interested in.

[J. Weitzel]

No question there. The Phils definitely bought high on Pence.

[Scotch Man]

Feeling a win today. A day game after the Mets mashed away not even 24 hours ago, just feels right for Lee to settle down and for the Phils to end the skid. Of course, I felt they'd win last night too.

[GTown_Dave]

At least Pence is producing something. And if the Phillies had any foresight at all they wouldn't have committed $50 million to a friggin' Closer despite having gaping holes all over the roster.

[Tom Goodman]

The Phillies' alleged brain trust has wavered about Mayberry ever since his arrival. Anyone who thinks such ambivlence has a negligible effect on his confidence and performance lives on an island.

[Hitman]

I agree about Willingham. Actually the decline started when RAJ gave Howard a contract which so much inflated the payroll that other more helpful moves were precluded. Also, when Rollins was re-signed, RAJ essentially chose Rollins over Hamels. They should start by firing RAJ. There must be accountability.

[3r0ck]

I want Hamels to stay, but hear me now ... if Hamels is traded, many here will wish we still had him next year and for ~10 years to come.

All these prospects will be built around some starting pitcher to be named later. May take a long time for another Hamels to come up through the farm, meanwhile we'll keep our fingers crossed that Doc and Lee come back to their career norms.

[Andrew Cleveland Alexander]

Going into the season, I'm sure the Phillies were still hoping that Domonic Brown would develop into their long term solution in left, and in the meantime, a Mayberry/Nix platoon actually wasn't such a bad idea. In Nix's injury, Mayberry's regression, and Brown's miserable season at AAA, they kind of hit a trifecta of bad outcomes. That said, I'm not sure that signing Willingham or Cuddyer to an Ibanez-esque three year contract would have been the answer. Neither would have provided enough wins to make a serious difference, and we'd just be looking to unload the contracts now, as the Twins and Rockies now are.

Here's a bright side to look at: CSN had a story yesterday about the possibility of the Phillies being a rare team to go from 100 wins to 80-90 losses this year. Two other teams on that list were the 1971 Reds and the 1986 Cardinals, both of which returned to the World Series in the years following their historic swoons. So, hard as it may be to imagine, this really could be a product of an extraordinary confluence of lousy circumstances. The components of a very good veteran team are still there.

[Jack]

I don't understand how the Rollins contract prevents Hamels from signing.

I could see an argument for the Papelbon, Lee, and Howard deals, certainly.

But 3/33 for Rollins should've been in their budget the whole time, as it is a reasonable deal, and I don't see how it would preclude a big signing, on its own.

[cut_fastball]

MG -- For the purposes of illustration, I did reference John Middleton. If you read carefully, any reference to the Middleton fortune was for the purposes of illustration.

Nowhere do I state I have any relevant information about Mr. Middleton, other than he sold a cigar company for $2.2 billion, which happens to be is public knowledge. Perhaps I should have qualified my statement with the preface "In the highly unlikely event that...".

What annoys you so? Should we presume you have inside information into the operations of the "Gang of 5" (or whatever they are these days) and said information has been violated by my idle musings? Would you be similarly annoyed if I presumed a view about President Obama and wrote about that?

Geesh. It's a blog. Free speech rules and idiocy is voted down by contrary posts.

[Jr.]

After listening to the Nats announcers for the last 2 hours it will be ALMOST bearable listening to the wonderful Phils announcers.

[J. Weitzel]

Good post, Andrew Cleveland Alexander

[RSB]

Jeez. You can argue for Cuddyer, I don't think a low-effort guy like Aramis Ramirez is what the Phillies needed, or need going forward. Better offensively than Polanco but more or less dead weight all the same.

Tom: This was true in the past with Mayberry, but not this time around. He was penciled in as a starter, definitively his job to lose, and he has lost it on merit.

Definitely some mismanagement on the part of Amaro to presume some of last year's surprises (Bastardo, Mayberry, Stutes) would repeat their performances instead of angling for viable backup options. I know there wasn't a lot of wiggle room with salary, but there haven't been enough Gillick-style attempts at chance-taking and depth-building in recent off-seasons. Unless you want to count "DFA-Train" Willis.

[J. Weitzel]

RSB: I agree on Mayberry.

[J. Weitzel]

Don't necessarily disagree on Ramirez, either. Using him mainly to support the idea the Phils identified the problem areas.

[The hook]

We all had better ideas then the front office did. They put all eggs in AAAberry repeating his performance. I said from get go sign furcal and Beltran. And look both all stars and team prob is more .500 team. Get chase Howard then you have a team. Even Aram and willingham would have done job.

[clout]

Who thinks that Cuddyer can be an everyday player at 2B or 3B? Anyone?

[can_of_corn]

Had to go to a family event last night, but kept slipping away to check the score. Each time I checked in, it got shockingly worse. It is bad enough to lose so dismally while reading remarks on BL; it is much worse to suffer alone, pretending to use the restroom way too often to check the game.

A colleague gave me tickets for Friday’s game. I’m wondering if it is worth the effort to see Kendrick and hear a stadium full of booing fans.

[Jack]

Care to explain "low-effort guy like Aramis Ramirez"?

I'm interested to hear how he has shown more or less effort than other players, and if you could give some examples of high or low effort guys. I wonder if they will have anything in common with a guy named Aramis Ramirez.

[clout]

Question for BAP & WP based on their posts from last thread: Do you think Mike Fontenot is an everyday thirdbaseman at the MLB level? If so, why?

Second question: Who would help the team more as the everyday 3Bman, Fontenot or Wigginton?

[J. Weitzel]

Broader strokes. The Phils are in this latest rut because they're 2 for their last 31 w/RISP and the pitching stinks. Not because of Polanco and Mayberry.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: I'll answer the first question with my own question: Do you think Polanco is an everyday 3rd baseman?

I'll answer the 2nd by saying: as a 3rd baseman, I think Fontenot is better than Wigginton. Wigginton cannot play defense at all, whereas Fontenot is average-ish.

[NEPP]

clout, I think Cuddyer would be just as good defensively at 2B or 3B as Ty Wigginton or Greg Dobbs.

take that how you will...

[clout]

The hook: "We all had better ideas then the front office did. They put all eggs in AAAberry repeating his performance."

One idea that was virtually unanimous on BL was that Ibanez should not be re-signed at any price.

So far, Ibanez OPS+ 98; Wigginton 90; Mayberry 71.

[clout]

BAP: Polanco is not the topic. Both you and WP have said he should be replaced by Fontenot. So, you are saying that Wiggy's weaker defense would more than outweigh the offensive advantage he has over Fontenot?

[can_of_corn]

Do we dare hope that Lee's first inning can be an indication of his turning the corner?

[Jack]

Cuddyer is not particularly good. Check out his road numbers this year. They're awful. He's only hitting decently because of Coors Field.

[NEPP]

How's Ibanez doing when you take him away from that short RF porch in Yankee stadium?

[clout]

FWIW, Fontenot hasn't been used much at 3B because he isn't very good there. His arm plays better at 2B, where he is above average defensively.

[NEPP]

Is today's script the one where Lee is actually effective but the offense doesnt show up?

2-1 Phillies loss?

[NEPP]

I would say Fontenot is no more than average at 2B at this point in his career...but certainly better than he is at 3B.

[GTown_Dave]

NEPP: Glad you asked. Raul's OPS drops 111 points on the Road.

[NEPP]

Gtown, I am shocked...SHOCKED at that split.

[clout]

NEPP: That's more of a wish on your part than anything based on facts. Cuddyer has played 14 games at 3B in the past 7 years. There's a reason for that. He's played a whopping 18 games at 2B in the past 7 years. He's actually worse than Dobbs and Wiggy.

[Jack]

Clout: What are your thoughts on Polanco, exactly? Let me throw this out there for you:

2008-2009 Pedro Feliz: 82 OPS+ both seasons, 11.2 UZR/150 (2008), 8.9 UZR/150 (2009)

2011-2012 Placido Polanco: 86 OPS+, 81 OPS+, 16.7 UZR/150 (2011), -2.9 UZR/150 (2012)

You realize that they're close to the same player at this point, right? Bad hitting, good fielding third basemen.

[cut_fastball]

clout -- as a (former!) rabid Cuddyer advocate, hindsight allows me to state he's best "left in left". Had the Phils' somehow acquired Cuddyer, it's not likely he'd have been any relief to the team's infield defensive woes.

[NEPP]

**He's actually worse than Dobbs and Wiggy.***

I dont know that that is physically possible. Comparing them is much the same as dividing by zero.

[clout]

Jack: You are obviously unfamiliar with the sabermetric SHE stat, which measures Scrappiness, Heart and Effort. While Ramirez does well on most standard stats, his SHE is weak.

[can_of_corn]

Lee looking great so far. Think we can muster just ONE run...JUST ONE???

[HammRadio]

This year for whatever reason whenever Wheels really praises a Phillie pitcher early in the game (Especially Lee), it usually is a real bad sign...

[NEPP]

I believe David Eckstein is the career leader in SHE and SHE+ for that matter.

[GTown_Dave]

I'm gonna go out on a limb & say neither Polanco, nor Fontenot, nor Wigginton is a suitable answer at 3B going forward.

[Jack]

Easiest decision I made today was picking the Mets TV broadcast over the Phillies broadcast.

[clout]

cut: Totally agree. Cuddyer is playing OF for the Rocks because that the only place he should play (besides 1B on occasion.)

If he could play 2B or 3B they'd put him there because his bat would be way more valuable at those spots and it's not like Marco Scutaro and Jordan Pacheco are anything special.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: I'm out the door momentarily and won't be here to respond to your ensuing misstatement of my position.

First of all, if my argument is based on a comparison of Polanco to Fontenot, then Polanco's merits as a 3rd baseman are very much a part of the topic.

Second, I'm not sure I agree that Wiggy is a better offensive player than Fontenot. Wiggy's only advantage is in the power department and, yes, I think it's more than offset by Fontenot's superior average and OBP and his much superior defense. I'm also put off by the $4M price tag on Wiggy's 2013 option, which is far in excess of what he's worth -- though, I expect that argument will be lost on you, since you don't acknowledge that businesses operate within a budget.

Lest it wasn't clear enough from last night's post (and I don't know how it couldn't have been), if the choice for 2013 3rd baseman came down to Polanco, Fontenot, and Wigginton, my first choice would be: none of the above. My second choice would be Fontenot. Wigginton would be my last choice, as he's simply not a 3rd baseman at this point in his career.

[NEPP]

Chris Young has an ERA+ of 172 over the past 3 years.

...in 13 starts not counting today's.

[clout]

Sorry Jack, I don't comment on partial-season UZR because even you know it's useless.

But there's no question Polly's bat has sunk almost to Felizian levels.

[Jack]

Mayberry is a AAA player. He was for the first 27 years of his life, and a hot two and a half months last season doesn't change it. He still is.

[NEPP]

Well, he's playing on a AAA team so he appears to be in the right place.

[GTown_Dave]

Well, if nothing else we've learned that Mayberry isn't a viable Major League player. Cut him loose & move on.

[NEPP]

Mayberry is blocking Darin Ruf's roster spot!!!

[Jr.]

Who do you call up to replace Mayberry?

[clout]

BAP: We agree on none of the above. I was just surprised to see you think Fontenot can be an everyday thirdbaseman at the MLB level.

[GTown_Dave]

Sorry. Should have been more specific. I don't mean cutting Mayberry loose now, but once the season is over. It's not like the Phils are a decent LF away from turning it all around.

[clout]

Wait, Ibanez's stats are better at home than on the road? That's pretty rare for a hitter, huh? Oh, wait...

[GTown_Dave]

Ha! Take that, the Mets!

[NEPP]

20th SB of the season against just 3 CS.

[GTown_Dave]

By-the-by, would it really surprise anyone if the Phillies' idea of "addressing" LF was to re-sign Pierre?

[NEPP]

I can totally see Rube bringing Pierre back on a multi-year deal next year...and I can totally see it being a horribly stupid move.

[curt]

Too bad Pierre can't drive himself in.

[curt]

And too bad Pierre isn't allowed to leadoff.

[GTown_Dave]

Speaking of Rollins, he's on an 0-17 streak right now.

[GBrettFan]

Wish we could have stayed playing tourist in Philly. Now I am compelled to watch the rest of the game. At least it's cool in the house!

Lee is pitching well, however. Will this be the day he finally gets a W and the team finally breaks the losing streak? (Note to Phillies: That means you have to score a few runs.)

[NEPP]

I'm not going to miss Victorino next year.

[GTown_Dave]

Vic hasn't had an XBH batting LH since 8 June. He last had an XBH batting RH on 13 June. (per Franzke)

[Jack]

Newsflash: The Phillies aren't good.

[NEPP]

Vic has a .695 OPS on the year now.

WTF.

[GTown_Dave]

The Phillies offense last put up a "crooked number" 48 innings ago. They have scored single runs in only 9 of those 48 innings.

[bullit]

if the phils sign pierre next year it should be to replace sarge in the broadcast booth.

[GTown_Dave]

Also, Papelbon hasn't pitched since 26 June (six games ago, not counting today). At this rate he'll make his next appearance in Kansas City at the All-Star Game.

[donc]

Sarge, TBag and Murphy. That's a regular Algonquin Round Table. What a cure for insomnia.

[Willard Preacher]

I'm not sure I ever advocated that Fontenot is the 3B solution. I simply surmised that 3B is one of the spots that needs to be addressed (and I actually would prefer someone with a bit more power).

I'm not against Fontenot as a bench piece, but he and Galvis make Polly expendable, as Polly is CERTAINLY not the best candidate for everyday 3B. Picking up Polly's option would be a terrible move by Rube.

[NEPP]

2011 Cliff Lee gets an out here
2012 Cliff Lee likely gives up a 3 run HR.

[Willard Preacher]

Rollins contract in no way would be an excuse to not sign Cole. If anyone else's contract makes it challenging, it's far and away the drum GTown has been beating, in the $50M to a player who may of may not even be vacationing in the Caribbean as we speak.

[GTown_Dave]

Sarge, TBag and Murphy. That's a regular Algonquin Round Table.

More like a bitch tits support group.

And here's where it all goes to hell ...

[GTown_Dave]

Lee w/ 2 Outs, &/or an 0-2 count, has been absolutely infuriating. He's not putting guys away, & it's killing him. And me.

[donc]

God how I despise Hairston. Apparently has no idea how bad he sucks.

[Willard Preacher]

Happy birthday America, where I can roll out of bed on the West Coast and immediately start my day by yelling "dammit, you suck" to my television.

[wes covington's ghost]

I'm amazed the Phils havn't been no-hit this year.

[bullit]

mabes has perfected the burrell ass bail.

[GTown_Dave]

Rollins pops out on 3 pitches. 0-18 now.

[donc]

Wes: I have a recurring nightmare that they get no hit this year.....by Cole Hamels. Sweet dreams.

[gjs]

This team is gripping hard.

[GTown_Dave]

And I'm griping hard. Doesn't appear to have any effect, though.

[curt]

Willard - was out of the country for 3 weeks, and it's nice to be back for the birthday party, even though the Phils still suck. At least the BL Pollyannas who were imagining that this bunch was playoff bound seem to have vanished.

[NEPP]

Right now, there are Mets fans whining about how this win wont count because its not against a real team.

[GTown_Dave]

Man, Boooo-berry's really bucking hard for LVP dishonors.

[GBrettFan]

I just love when our pitchers give up leadoff walks.

[wes covington's ghost]

donc- I've always thought Hamels had no hit potential every start....might as well be against the Phils as a nice parting gift to the GM savant.

[gjs]

@GTown: ha.

[HammRadio]

Utley's Corner!!!

[Chris "Wheels" Wheeler]

"This is a joke to watch" "Opps, did I just sat that?"

[NEPP]

Pierre might bring back a b/c prospect in a trade right now. Lots of teams would probably like to add him as a 4th OF.

[bullit]

The Man !!!

[curt]

Pierre with his 2nd hit - what a disaster.

[NEPP]

Chooch!!!

[GBrettFan]

Thank you, Cliff Lee, for not giving up any more runs (esp. after walk).

Especially, thank you, Chase, for infusing a little excitement into the game!!!

And Chooooooch for the lead! Wow!

[HammRadio]

CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[gjs]

Like a cool breeze on a still day.

[bullit]

is this Pittsburgh?