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Monday, July 30, 2012

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is anything "credible" this time of year?

so is this what is happening?
Phils like LAD offer for Vic but if LAD get Dempster & Soriano then Vic goes somewhere else.
SAF wants Pence but can't come to a deal over how much $$ Phils will kick in
Blanton is bound for O's if they can agree or maybe get's packaged with Vic to O's for something more.
Phils know what it will take to get Headley but are waiting to see of they get Olt as part of a deal for Lee which is more or less focused on how much $$ the Phils will give Texas.

And Pierre will go tomorrow to the Reds. The Reds like him because they won't mess with team chemistry, coaches like him and the price will likely be a non-prospect

Polanco/Wiggy could go after the deadline because salaries will clear waivers.


IMO it's pretty telling that the Phils are shopping Pence harder than Vic according to the mlbtr blurb.

Dealing Pence nets the team a lot more: probably better prospects and a ton of salary relief next season.

Rumor also has it that the Phisl are asking a 'ton' for Vic. I wonder want RAJ has asked for in return?

I agree with those who say trading Lee makes no sense, with one caveat:

If they're blown away by an offer - say...like.... Olt and Martin Perez\Leonys Martin with a couple of other decent prospects then maybe if you're the Phillies you listen.

OTOH, if Cliff Lee reverts to 2011 form in 2013, with a healthy Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Worley in the rotation, the Phillies would actually have a shot at contending in 2013 - IMHO.

As much as some might cry foul on Lee being traded 1 year into his deal, he's actually looking at a pretty sizable net income increase if he does go to Texas simply due to the cost of living decrease and the lack of an income tax.

I know that I've spit-balled what I'd save moving from the DC suburbs to Texas just on housing costs and taxes alone and it's pretty significant. I can never quite figure out why the Rangers and Astros aren't more popular FA destinations because of it. On the flipside, I have read before the Blue Jays usually have to overpay a bit because of Canadian tax rates, but I would suppose at the moment they are getting a boost from the strong Loonie.

eskin the elder tweeted blanton to baltimore is close to being done too.

I simply dont see how trading Lee doesnt crater Philly as a destination for future free agents. The only way I do it is if Lee is public;y begging his way out, and then that also sends a bad signal.

Repost:

Unless Gose becomes a star (while Gillies utterly fails), arguments about the Lee trade will, in the near future, be almost totally supplanted by indictments of last year's Pence trade, which, I think, will very likely join the Garcia deal in the hall of infamous Phillies trades. A reactionary move, it seems to me -- and if it issued from some sort of plan, Amaro's was a very poor plan indeed, deeming it worthwhile to overpay for a player who's rising salary would come squarely into conflict with the impending free agency of Hamels (and, of course, the preexisting contracts for Howard, Halladay, and Lee).

As to moving Lee, I don't think the idea is as preposterous, in theory, as Baumann at Crashburn Alley suggests. If Lee could be turned into 5 years of cost-controlled above-average third base production (the second scarcest resource in MLB, it seems like) and extensive salary relief -- then I don't see why a rational person wouldn't strongly consider doing that. I like Lee, and expect him to do well in the future, but paying vast sums for his slow decline while continuing to suffer an abscess at the hot corner (and experiencing the accompanying salary blockage) isn't overwhelmingly appealing.

Let me add -- and this is why I regret our trading Singleton -- I think the team is pretty starved for slugging. Perhaps I'm overly influenced by my love of the '08 team, but it seems to me that a team with slightly better than passable pitching (which I think the Phillies could well have, even minus Lee, with some good luck in developing/acquiring a few decent bullpen arms) and a roster of sluggers is not only a safer bet to compete for a playoff spot on a year-in, year-out basis, but is well-primed to succeed in the admittedly pretty random arena of playoff baseball. The point being, I wouldn't mind, with Hamels in place, having the pendulum shift a bit and seeing the FO going forward prioritize high OBP and slugging (as much as that might dismay any of BL's remaining Protestant work ethic small ballists, for whom the sequence of walk, strikeout, two-run homer is a blasphemy before the face of baseball's stern Calvanist god).

@JWeitzel, are you insinuiating I am not a credible source?

Calvinists should believe in predetermination, so I'm not sure they'd care one way or the other...

Klaus: if baseball's god is calvinist, then this was all preordained.

Or, rather, if baseball's god is a calvinist, should it matter what the Phillies do?

Just to follow up on Jbird's comment about the cost of living.
I live outside of Houston (originally from outside of Philly) but it is about 30% cheaper at last glance to live here than Philly. Housing is cheap ($120K for a 2200 sq ft house), taxes are cheap (I pay about $3,000 a year on my house) and no state income tax. The downside is sales tax is a little higher (8.25% in my county).

TX Phils fan: do you need an accounting manager? I want to live a no state income tax kinda life, Maryland has gotten to be ridiculously expensive. I was thinking San Antonio though, but I guess I could live with a Houston suburb.

The cost of "living" reflects the demand for "living"; I'm absolutely convinced people like the Lees and Pat Burrell understand that completely. There's a reason even high-salaried people want to be in, say, NYC.

Is the cost of very expensive living also about 30% cheaper in Houston? I imagine that the mansion market in Texas would be cheaper than the mansion market in Philadelphia by a similar percentage, but that may not necessarily be the case.

For a team w/ a budget no mortal fan could possibly fathom the Phils sure do seem intent on dumping enough salary to keep under the luxury tax.

@Dpatrone

DPatrone - when we see Blanton/Pence go to SF like you said earlier - you will gain some credibility but if also the Lee trade happens and we get Olt +. you will be god-like.

Then if the phillies can move Vic/Pierre/Wiggy for prospect and put together a package for Choo. I would be pumped.

Buddy Ryan: as a good 5 point Calvinist myself, I'd have to say that the intersection between man's free will and God's sovereignty is a mystery which we are unlikely to solve this side of eternity, however, as instrument's of God's will, our actions are recognized as not being those of an automaton but rather we work to carry out the Lord's will. Hopefully the Lord's will entails a all-star level answer to the 3rd base situation in 2013... or at least league average.

Predestination isn't strictly determinism. Anyway, puritans had no trouble associating styles of living with Godliness.

Given that Lee was praised on this board for giving up the opportunity to make more money to come to Philly, where he actually wants to live, doesn't the comfort of lower taxes and cost of living in Texas seem, well, pretty damn cold?

Blanton is excited about a move to Baltimore, they got fancy cakes there as well as cakes made out of crab. How can he go wrong?

I remember reading 4 or 5 articles at the time of the Lee signing that put to myth the idea that Lee was actually taking less money to come to Philly.

@Slocs don't take my words out of context. Not anyone's fault in the Phillies FO if the Giant's owners nix the deal.

Jbird, sorry, I am the accounting manager here. Have to be careful with San Antonio though. There and Austin (more so) are the "expensive" parts of the state.
As for the very expensive living, I would imagine it is a similar discount. I just looked at some listings and I found a 10,000 sq ft house for $5.9 mil sitting on 9 acres. Other houses around 8-10K sq ft are roughly $2.5 mil.

The crab cakes are good, but I imagine Blanton's main point of excitement regarding Baltimore is the potential drop in cost of living. You can get a bombed-out row home in a terrible neighborhood down there for $350 a month. The bourbon's cheaper by five bucks a bottle, too.

Are Calvinists those who worship James Calvin Rollins?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-jock-tax/

Players aren't strictly taxed on income based on their team's residance. They get taxed by every state in which they play (based on "duty days"). Your home team and the division you play in are the biggest factors.

In my opinionation, the sun is gonna surely shine.

Nobody worships Jimmy.

(To the cadence of "Nobody like Milhouse")

according to this report: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Sources-Cliff-Lee-agrees-with-Philadelphia-121310

Lee got 5/$120m with a 6th year vesting that would have made it 6/$147.5

NY offered 6/138 or 7/148 with a "player option"

Tex offered 6/138 w/ deferals and 6/120 without deferrals.

@ Klaus: Agree with every point you made, except for one: The Pence trade was made to solidify the offense and it worked. The Phillies offense was phlailing last year at this time and the trade got them back into a functional offensive unit. Not a machine by any means, but nonetheless formidable.

If the injuries hadn't happened and the older players not regressed so swiftly and significantly, Pence wouldn't be either in the mix for a trade or even a point of conversation. I'm quite certain that his uneven year is borne out of the necessity for him to be THE offensive catalyst rather than a complementary player. I'm convinced that has Howard and Utley been in the lineup from the start of this sea on, his number on offense and even defense wouldn't have suffered so much.

Joey! Whoa!

Pence is a career 108 OPS+ hitter with bad defense.

We massively overpaid for him.

epicurean: Perhaps Joe believes there is a "hamsterdam" and that it's a block of Baltimore made entirely of ham.

I think the reason that the Astros and Rangers aren't more popular as a free agent destinations might be due to the Astros are horrible and the Rangers have no roof on their park. When it is 100 degrees plus in August, I'm sure it is brutal being on the field. Here in Houston at least there is a roof and A/C in the stadium.
On the other hand, it is quite nice spending Thanksgiving and Christmas in shorts and a t-shirt which makes up for August in my book.

Other thing to consider is the role Spring Training plays (in Florida, no income tax) since "duty days" includes days in FL and I'm sure players are paid for their time there.

I'm not sure the tax thing is *as* big as it might seem, though I'm sure it would give the Astros/Rangers a slight leg up if it needed to. A competing team could just tag $500-$1M on the life of the contract to offset some of the bigger deals.

Playing games in Texas heat can be pretty brutal I'd imagine. I remember that reason being brought up a bunch of times with those 1990s Rangers clubs (the JuanGon, W. Clark, Pudge, Dean Palmer teams) as to why they faded down the stretch.

Tx Phils fan: drat.

Good point on the ST games, Sophist.


Honestly though, when you get up to whether or not you're making $22 or $24 million a year, it kinda becomes a moot point.

The Pence trade didn't 'work.' The team was rolling through the season, picked Pence up and continued rolling. Then he failed to make any kind of difference in the playoffs, which is what he was acquired to do.

I'm not sure how any of that can be disputed. Rube got greedy and traded away our last legitimate prospects (if you don't include Brown) for nothing. No need to put lipstick on a pig. The only way it doesn't end up as a total failure is if we can manage to get a guy like Gary Brown for Pence.

NEPP: perhaps you've missed some of the current political debate over the sunset of the "Bush Era Tax Rates" currently going on. It's never a moot point.

I really want confirmation that the real DPatrone is posting stuff today. I just can't believe he'd put himself in a position to be mocked again like he does...every...year...

Nevermind. It's probably Patrone.

That's a good point, JBird.

Who says they're not popular free agent destinations? Since they started winning, and hugely boosted payroll, the Rangers have signed Yu Darvish & Adrian Beltre, marquee FAs both, plus Joe Nathan -- another expensive FA. And, back when Houston was good, and willing to spend money, they signed guys like Clemens, Pettitte, and Jeff Kent.

@Klaus

Here's why I by and large ignore anyone complaining about the Pence trade:

Because this entire fan board was celebrating it. You don't get to be ecstatic that they trade for the guy (who filled a very real hole in RF last year) then turn around and claim it's a big mistake and say it shouldn't have been made. Hindsight is no excuse.

"The only way it doesn't end up as a total failure is if we can manage to get a guy like Gary Brown for Pence."

Or if he stays and is part of a successful team in the future.

Yu Darvish was posted from Japan and could only negotiate with Texas, sorta like a draft pick.

Pettitte and Clemens are both native Texans...

Godfather: my only complaint about the Pence deal was how little Atlanta gave up in the subsequent Bourn deal. I figured the Pence deal was the (expensive) cost of doing business. But in comparison, Philly overpaid.

Say they trade Lee to the Rangers for Olt, Leonys Martin, and maybe some other minor pieces. Then trade Pence to the Giants for Gary Brown. Not sure if either is possible, but assuming it is, they would have a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Worley, Cloyd and May/Pettibone, and a defense of Brown, Martin, Gary Brown, Olt, Rollins, Utley, Howard and Ruiz.
I'm not sure if that is too aggressive of an overhaul in order to contend in 2013. Although, maybe the goal should be to get younger and try to contend in 2014.
Additionally, what are the odds that they keep Kendrick in the rotation after the deadline or next season, and keep Cloyd in the minors?
Lastly, they have to let Manuel go after the season, right? His last year of the contract is next season and they can't let him be a lame duck next year so it's either extend him or let him go.

Why would we trade both Victorino and Pence?

Who will play in the outfield in 2013?

BAP point more goes to show that players go where they can win provided they get paid. Taxes have a small role to play, but it's not significant, and I'd imagine it can easily be offset by the Yankees.

If they trade both Victorino and Pence, the OF in 2013 most likely will be Mayberry, Brown and a free agent CF such as Bourn, Cabrera or Upton.
This assumes that they don't get an OF in any trade this year (such as Leonys Martin from Texas as part of a trade for Lee).

"I'm not sure if that is too aggressive of an overhaul in order to contend in 2013. Although, maybe the goal should be to get younger and try to contend in 2014."

2014. No Utley, maybe no Doc, how old will Rollins be, what will Howard even look like, Ruiz will be an old catcher and he's not even under contract for that year. Either blow the whole thing up now or try to win in 2013. 2014 isn't a lost cause, but that's a long way away for this team. Lots of turnover.

We can compete in 2013.

Godfather: Of course it's easy to despise the deal now. Although I didn't celebrate it (I've long liked Singleton) I didn't at the time condemn it particularly strongly -- I think the only contribution I made was echoing Eric Seidman's notion that the same package plus Brown might have landed us Matt Kemp (and who knows if it would've).

Judgment aside, it's worth raising in evaluating Rube's strategic mindset, or lack thereof, which was the point of the past thread.

@Jbird

Well, that's the price for a guy who's was one of the top 5 RF's in the National League last year and the best hitter on the market. And think of who's better now. Heyward has a little worse numbers career wise though he is younger. Maybe Harper in a few years, but he's a rookie (no matter how good his numbers in a season are, no rookie player should ever be considered Top 5 at any position in either league, just because he's so young and it's a limited sample size).

Today, Stanton, certainly, is better. Beltran when healthy, though his age is a huge factor. Ethier too. Upton, maybe, though he's having a bad year.

But not Bruce. Not Gregor Blanco. Cuddyer may be getting Pence's number's but he's even worse in the field. Realistically, you'd have to include Pence at least at #5, maybe #6 if you push for Heyward.

No, no, no to Mayberry. Are you serious, TX, or is the hot weather getting to you?

Mayberry is at the very best your 5th outfielder. Anyone in his/her right mind wants him gone. He has had numerous chances and FAIL is his middle name. It's truly sad, as he looked last year as if he was the heir apparent in left field. He was given a real shot this season and came up way too short.

I see Brown and one of a choice of free agents in the outfield. Hopefully, it's Bourn. I would give just about anything to get him back to his baseball roots. Can you imagine a bona fide leadoff hitter? The Phils haven't had one since that swindler Dyksta manned center a couple of decades ago.

NEPP - Vintage Doc, Lee, and Hamels, the NL's 7th best offense (in terms of RS), and the NL's 7th best BP (in terms of ERA) won 102 games in 2011. The competition is stronger, but provided good health 85+ wins isn't improbable next year, right? Amaro makes the right kinds of moves now (if they're out there), brings in a guy like Bourn, and who knows. 2014 is hard to think about right now.

Here was my reaction to the rumored deal (even before Santana was added 2 months later)

If that [the Pence trade] happens, Ruben should be fired, castrated and then beaten with a rubber hose.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, July 29, 2011 at 02:40 PM


I was violently against it at the time and still am...so I will continue to rip Amaro for it.

I agree about 2014, no Utley, no Doc (at least not at $20 mil, maybe he's back at a lower rate). Which brings me back to Lee. If they trade him, who fills out the rotation, especially in 2014 if Doc isn't here. So I am kind of torn between trading Lee as we could use Olt and some other younger guys, but it puts a lot of pressure on Halladay to bounce back next year if Lee is gone. Also, they would rely on Worley, Cloyd and Martin perez (if they get him in the Lee trade) or May/Pettibone/etc to fill out the rotation. I guess it depends on the return for Lee. If it is Olt, Perez and martin, or Olt, Perez or Martin, and some other minor pieces, then you probably have to make the trade.
If they think they can contend next year, then I would think they would have to keep Lee and trade Pence to get a 3B prospect (someone lower on the scale than Olt), then get a CF in Free agency to go with Mayberry and Brown. Although, maybe there is someone else that could take Mayberry's spot.

***NEPP - Vintage Doc, Lee, and Hamels, the NL's 7th best offense (in terms of RS), and the NL's 7th best BP (in terms of ERA) won 102 games in 2011. The competition is stronger, but provided good health 85+ wins isn't improbable next year, right?***

With a couple of moves, I think we could be a 90 win team next year.

Godfather: that was my point, I figured it was the cost of doing business on Pence except somehow Atlanta was able to pick Bourn up off the discount rack. Still feel the same way.

Rube was quoted as saying, "Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering whale; to the last I grapple with thee; from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee. Sink all coffins and all hearses to one common pool! and since neither can be mine, let me then tow to pieces, while still chasing thee, though tied to thee, thou damned whale! Thus, I give up the spear!"

In response to his reasoning on pursuing Hunter Pence so hard.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, July 29, 2011 at 02:43 PM

I agree w/ most everything Sophist has said in his last few posts. The year on which to focus is 2013. Not only does r00b need to make the correct moves (as in, moving players for a purpose rather than just making a mass salary dump), the team is still going to need a good amount of luck (player health being a particular concern) going forward. The 2014 season might as well not even exist for all it matters right now.

NEPP - health will play a big role, but I agree. No reason they should ever be less than an 85-88 win team unless they get decimated by injuries again.

Maine Rob,

I am not saying that Mayberry is the best option for LF. I'm just saying that depending on what they can get from the trades today/tomorrow, they might have to rely on him if they end up trading Pence and Victorino.
I'm not sure how they would fill out the third OF spot if they have Bourn/Cabrera in Center and Brown in Right. That is, unless they get Leonys Martin from Texas or find a way to get Gose back.
Point is that it is either keep Pence and use minimum salary guys in Center and Left, or trade Pence, sign Bourn/Cabrera/Upton for center, brown in right and someone in left (preferably someone we get in a trade)

Anyone ever consider that maybe Bourn doesn't want to come back here or that, he might like playing in Atlanta. What else is Atlanta gonna spend money on this off-season?

I believe that Bourn's agent is Scott Boras, so that tells me all I need to know regarding whether or not he would leave Atlanta to go somewhere for more money.

mm: More foam tomahawks?

We still have Laynce Nix, right? Wouldn't a Nix/Mayberry platoon be an enormous improvement upon just Mayberry?

Also, regarding FA outfielders, Michael Bourn seems to be a popular idea on BL. The problem, though, is that Bourn is left-handed and does significantly worse against LHP. We already have Howard & Utley & you've got to figure on Dom being in next year's starting OF. 4 left-handers in the everyday lineup would be unacceptable.

So you're telling me there's a chance

b_a_p: I can't help but feeling people think too much of Nix. Also, when have the Phillies ever taken care to make certain their lineup/bench wasn't choked w/ RH batters?

BAP - Compared to the problems they currently have, I don't have much of a problem with the handedness thing. Who are your preferred FA targets?

Outfielders
Michael Bourn
Marlon Byrd
Melky Cabrera
Matt Diaz
Andre Ethier
Curtis Granderson *
Josh Hamilton
Torii Hunter
Carlos Lee
Angel Pagan
Carlos Quentin
Aaron Rowand
Luke Scott
Ryan Spilborghs
Ichiro Suzuki
B.J. Upton
Shane Victorino
Reggie Willits
Delmon Young

LAD and SF battling each other for Pence & Victorino says Heyman on MLB Network. Let's hop, push the price up.

Mayberry and Nix will platoon in LF in 2013. Just like they should have from Day 1 in 2012.

And together, they will hit 30 HR's.

Brown will be the everyday starter in RF in 2013...probably as soon as Tuesday night.

The 2013 CF, is not yet on the roster...but also may be by this time tomorrow.

I would say what side of the plate Bourn hits from is not something we should be focusing on when thinking of whether or not to acquire him. The same discussion was had with Ibanez when the Phils acquired him and he didn't hamper the offense any in 2009.

The focus should be on making the team better, and Michael Bourn is a player that would improve the team.

Gotta free up that money. If we wanna make a run for bourne or cabrera in the offseason that's our only shot. Whoever still sees Hamilton coming here is smoking something I'd very much like to try myself...

I'm expecting Clayton Kershaw & Matt Cain to come back in any Pence or Victorino deals.

Slocs, TR Sullivan is the guy who floated the idea that the rangers real need was at catcher, and that they should trade for Carlos Ruiz. IIRC, he posited that they could get Chooch for players that amounted to little more than a bag of balls and some junk.

In short, Sullivan is an idiot, even if he's correct that the chance of Lee going to TEX is that low.

"Or if he stays and is part of a successful team in the future."

A fair point. The problem is, that would require signing him to a pretty large contract extension that would far exceed his actual worth. I'm not really in favor of this, and judging by the Phils willingness to dangle him out there for a trade so far in advance of his free agency, I don't think it's something that's in Amaro's plans, either.

It could happen, though.

Beat me to it, NEPP.

"Honestly though, when you get up to whether or not you're making $22 or $24 million a year, it kinda becomes a moot point."

When you are paid several million dollars or more per year and your net worth is probably in eight figures, it's quite possible that whether you pay $2.5M or $3.25M for a house is less important than other factors like family's preference & proximity, team chemistry & ability to win, where you were born and raised, etc. etc.

sophist: I like Cabrera because of his age. BJ Upton would be a distant 2nd, although I'm not crazy about him.

GTown: Yeah, I'm no great fan of Nix either. I'm also not a fan of platoons, for reasons I stated yesterday. Nonetheless, I think you can get away with 1 platoon and, while Nix is a flawed player, he does give you good power production against RHP. I'd certainly rather have Nix facing RHP than Mayberry.

If Cliff Lee is traded again that is going to be pretty upsetting to my friends and me and a lot of us die-hard Phillies fans. Lee is not a 1-6 pitcher and doesn't truly deserve that status this year. The losses might be correct for him, but the win side of the ledger is not. Of all the moves being discussed at this time, that one is def thumbs down.

Bourn has everyone's favorite agent (Boras) AND is likely coming off his career year.

If Amaro moves Pence, gets back the rumored $.60 to $.70 on the dollar he paid less than a year ago, and turns around this offseason to sign Bourn at $14-15M AAV for 4 or 5 years he will have completed the 'Circle of Stupidity.'

Selling high on Ruiz would be an very interesting move (season came out of nowhere and he'll be 34 next year), and it would destroy the fanbase if it didn't work out. Also, Sebastian Valle has a .281 OPS in Reading. Trading Ruiz would require a haul (not happening).

"Also, Sebastian Valle has a .281 OPS in Reading. Trading Ruiz would require a haul (not happening)."

Two words: Erik Kratz!

There is zero chance that Rube drops a large check on Bourn this winter. He probably won't have the necessary $$, and wouldn't give it to Boras even if he did.

that would require signing him to a pretty large contract extension that would far exceed his actual worth.

Or just going to arbitration with him for one year (2013, his final arb year) and having a good season.

MG - Bourn for 4/$60? I don't know about that. Hmm. Weren't we just talking about how little he costs the Braves? He's having a good year, but not earth-shattering. Not even close to Vic's 2011.

Trading Chooch right now would be the smart thing to do to maximize value especially if the Phils can get back another catching prospect in return in another deal who could step in.

Chooch won't begin to replicate this kind of production again & has been treated like a rented mule the last 2 years by Cholly. Seems destined to have a notable decline in performance next year with a higher likelihood of having an injury.

Plus, do the Phils really expect that a 34-year old catcher will be start 120+ G next year?

Or just going to arbitration with him for one year (2013, his final arb year) and having a good season.

Bingo. And if the Phils aren't in it next season, he can be dealt then.

Sophist, .281 OPS?

Jayson Stark ‏@jaysonst
Source says Cliff Lee deal to Texas is "not going to happen." More to come at http://ESPN.com

Sophist - Coming off a career year and some of the big pitching names that were going to hit the market have now been resigned (Cain, Hamels).

I bet somebody ends up throwing stupid money at Bourn at gives him something like 4 yrs/52-54M.

b_a_p: I agree w/ the theory that the Phils could get away w/ one OF platoon. Unfortunately, Charlie will undoubtedly muck it all up the second one of those guys gets hot, & leave him to start a majority of games long past said hot streak.

Not surprised Lee isn't going to Texas.

My source told me the Phillies asked for Olt, Martin, Martin Perez and Profar.

If the Phils are going to try to roll out platoons at multiple spots next year and need a manager who has a good feel for managing a staff & bullpen, Cholly is really the wrong manager for the job.

It won't cost them their season but shaky managing like this season could well cost them 3-4 games which keeps them home again next October.

MG - I could see 4/50 I guess, at most. Eh. No strong feelings about that. Agree about Ruiz to some extent. He'll cost the Phils $4.5M (.5 buyout) on a 1-year deal. Considering there are no real options at the position, you'd have to get something back for him. You'd just be opening up another hole on this team.

awh - Typo. OBP

MG, IMO Bourn will get 5 yrs and anywhere from $60 - 75 MM, depending on what Boras can fool some team into paying.

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