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Thursday, July 05, 2012

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You also can't win 10 in a row if in your next game you're facing R.A. Dickey.

Repost from the end of last thread:

lorecore - Detroit wouldn't necessarily be a bad trading partner if you're targeting a 3B, but Castellanos has some warning signs...most notably his walk rate is pretty abysmal in AA (2:26 BB:K ratio in 106 ABs). Obviously could be part of the adjustment process, but he didn't have stellar BB rates and ratios in A-ball either (although they were definitely fine).

Would much prefer Olt since he's basically ML-ready right now and has a superior skill set overall offensively.

EFF: But, Chase Utley said they now have momentum.

I think I know how to make Mayberry a good hitter. Give him to another team and let him face the Phillies all the time. This seems to work to turn lackluster players into performers.

(Plus, facing KK and our BP is also conducive to hitting the baseball, or at least walking.)

Does it even matter at this point?

Let's say over the next few weeks, the team gets back to close to .500. They don't sell Hamels or Victorino, and in fact trade a prospect for a bullpen arm.

They then miss the playoffs, because there's too many teams ahead of them, and because they just don't catch enough breaks down the stretch. Hamels and Victorino leave as FAs.

Isn't this the worst case scenario?

Chris: Agreed. Texas is probably the best case scenario for Phils as a trading partner.

Runner up is Toronto in my book. Could likely get a 1 of Gose/d'Arnaud back along with a good pitching prospect, they've got enough where you might even get 2 back if you stayed away from Daniel Norris(top LHP in '11 draft).

Actually, after reading my post...that would be a ton of return for 3mo of Hamels.

You'd probably only get 1 of Gose/dArnaud and not much else, or maybe two of their top10 pitchers in a package at best.

Would it help if TEX-DET-TOR-NYY are all in on Hamels? Maybe that would increase the secondary prospect a little.

I think third is the most important pc to get when they trade Cole. Plenty of OF next yr in free agency. Like a angel p and nick swisher combo to fill center and left. The prospect in pipe line is Franco and he's in A. Hope another injury forces Texas to put on full press to get Cole. And maybe you package Shane to get a young OF and a bullpen pc for now. People think that trading is so easy. It's not as easy as they think and please use logic when you post trade proposals.

Of all those teams, DET is most likely to pull the trigger. Rangers don't need Hamels, Toronto w/ Hamels is still going to have a hard time winning their division and/or WC. NYY may be interested, but do they have the prospects to make it happen? I feel like they spent their big chip this summer to get Pineda, and he unfortunately got injured.

Are the Rays a team that anyone thinks might make a run at Hamels? They are a defense and pitching first team. Shields is on the "bad year" part of his good year/bad year flip-flop, and pairing Price with Hamels would really make that a dangerous team.

Hamels and Vic for Kemp, Braun and Upton. Oh, and Longoria.

Make it happen Rube!!

Just glanced at Philly.com and the blurb for some Phillies article included this question for commenters: "Are the Phillies on the rise?"

Who the h_ll asks that kind of question after the team wins just one--ONE--game?

Each win that breaks up a 6-game skid is just another day that RA Jr. thinks this team still has a pulse.

Obviously a major-league ready young 3B prospect would be ideal.

But if you're going to trade a stud like Hamels, you get the best players back you can. I know people don't like to hear it, but you go for talent over need. If the talent is close, then you choose based on positional need. But if the choice is a B+ prospect at 3rd or an A prospect somewhere else, take the better prospect.

I agree Jack and the good (bad?) part about a possible Hamels deal is that they should be able to touch on multiple needs because 3B isn't the only one they have.

Of course, given that Amaro thought the best talent available for Lee was Gillies, Ramirez and Aumont, it's fair to question how exactly they're evaluating amateur talent.

outside of our bullpen, the phillies on paper still look better than every NL East team, even with Howard and Halladay not there. Add them in another 2-3 weeks and it looks like a runaway.

Makes it so hard to ignore when they win, even though all logic points to them being finished.

"I know people don't like to hear it, but you go for talent over need."

As it happens, the Phillies have so many areas of need that this is not likely to be an issue. With Rollins & Utley presumably having the ability to change positions, the only 2 positions where a stud prospect would not immediately step into the starting lineup would be catcher & 1st base.

The thing about need/value with the Phillies is that they need every single position!

Ruiz has only 1 option year left, will be 34.
Howard uncertain of injury, altho likely the most unneeded position
Utley on borrowed time, only 1 year left on deal
Rollins two years left
Polly has option, but ideally would be gone
lf is wide open
vic if a FA
pence only one more year
blanton/kk/hamels all could be gone
all relievers basically suck outside paps

So while 3B is 'more' of a need, in reality every single position(maybe not 1B) is in dire need of a mlb-ready prospect in next year or two.

Best player vs. Need also has to take into consideration the status of the team and where it will be in the next couple years.

If the Phillies think they can trade Hamels and make the necessary moves to contend next year, then they may be inclined to go for the B+ 3B prospect who can play next year as opposed to the A prospect SS who won't be ML ready for 2-3 years.

We need to be rooting hard for the Brewers, Tigers, and Angels at this point:

-- If Milwaukee climbs back into the playoff race, Greinke goes off the trade market, making Hamels the only true ace available.

-- If Detroit climbs back into contention, they might give up Castellanos for Hamels.

-- If the Angels can close the 5-game gap on Texas, that puts both of those teams in play for Hamels.

Texas would probably deal Olt and perhaps one more legitimate prospect for Hamels in that scenario. The Angels have a huge payroll and much to gain from a playoff appearance, particularly if it's not one-and-done as a wild card. Arte Moreno calls the shots, so they'll cough up good prospects easier than a lot of teams. I could see them giving up Peter Bourjos and Jean Segura for Hamels, which would be a terrific return for a Phils team reloading for 2013.

lorecore, your recap is helpful, thanks. The timing points to a radical revamp in the next couple of years, coincidentally timing up to the TV deal $ that everyone is expecting. It could get pretty interesting.

However, it's a CRITICAL time to keep a winning product on the field right now, regardless of playoff chances, for that very reason. If attendance/viewership start to wane, the TV deal gets slightly less exorbitant each day. Granted, shouldn't be enough to change the dynamic, but leaving $ on the table is not something this FO will take kindly to.

This is also the reason that I can see where the Phils absolutely have the resources to get a Hamels deal done, if structured right. I have to believe that the hang up is on the # of years.

TOP 5 PICK OR BUST! STOP THIS WINNING NOW!

Bourjos is a decent player and at 25 in a situation where there just flat out isn't any room for him. I'd be happy with him as a piece to replace Victorino. Segura is really playing well this year and if Jimmy can move to 3rd that would be nice.

I don't find myself even the slightest bit excited by Peter Bourjos.

With the second wild card, the Angels are in a very good playoff position right now. They are buyers, for sure.

The question is whether they really need another starting pitcher, considering they have Weaver, Haren, and Wilson already.

Bourjos has the possibility of being a good player. He might already be the best defensive CF in the game, and he's shown flashes in the minors and last season of a league-average bat as well, and he has plus speed on the bases as well.

The problem is that he hasn't consistently hit for average at the major-league level, and he doesn't have enough plate discipline or power for his bat to play anywhere above the 8th spot at the major-league level, if he's hitting for a low average.

He's a guy worth taking a flyer on, for sure, but I would be disappointed if he was the #1 piece in a trade for Hamels.

I mean, seriously, Peter Bourjos? A guy with 887 career PAs and a slash line of .250/.301/.413? We'd really be happy with him as Vic's replacement? And we'd really be ok with trading up Cole Hamels to get him?

Segura is certainly more appealing than Bourjos but, even still, it's hard for me to see how a SS-3rd base tandem of Rollins and Segura would be appreciably better than Rollins and Polanco. And I say this, despite being on great fan of Polanco.

Jack: Exactly. Bourjos, to me, is a project with nice -- and, so far, totally unfulfilled -- upside potential. He's not a guy for whom you give up an ace pitcher.

"And we'd really be ok with trading up Cole Hamels to get him?"

Only if Hamels has a handshake deal with RAJ to sign with the Phillies in November...

I wouldn't want Bourjos as a #1 piece but he's a guy with age on his side and he does have upside. He hasn't been given much of a chance to prove himself in the big leagues and he had an injury before. Segura would be the bigger piece. I think it's an interesting trading partner candidate.

RE: Does LAA need more arms? Well if they subscribe to the Ruben Amaro, Jr. school of thought then yeah they'll take more arms.

I don't see how the Angels can justify dealing for another SP. They need bullpen help and maybe another bat. Not another SP.

I'll take Galvis-Rollins.3rd-ss or ss-3rd

Although, when I look at the Angels bullpen, I see that Scott Downs has an ERA+ of 1186.

So I guess they're fine in that department.

Galvis-Rollins would be a pretty abysmal combo offensively.

Galvis isn't going to ever be even average with the bat...and who knows how much of his increased power was due to PEDs?

Finding a 3B with some pop is a priority for this team, in trade or the offseason.

I'm not a "scientist" or a "doctor", but am I right to expect Galvis will NOT be flashing the same "power" he has over the last 1+seasons? His glove and baseball awareness are outstanding, but not sure he can hit the ball without "help", and even then he wasn't great.

The Angels need arms. Haren's been ineffective due to back problems and is likely headed to the DL. Jerome Williams (4.46 ERA) will likely return from the DL in Haren's spot. Their other two starters are Ervin Santana (5.75 ERA) and Garrett Richards (rookie, 2.81 ERA in 5 starts but 4.8 BB/9).

Bourjos is one of the best defensive CFs in the game, is very fast, and should rebound offensively from lousy BABIP luck. He put up a 4.2 WAR season in 2011 at age 24. He would be a big upgrade on a declining Shane Victorino in both the short and long term. Segura's a guy who will be at a minimum a solid starting infielder and has all-star upside. He would instantly be the Phils' #1 prospect.

Has anyone mentioned the closed-door meeting Hamels had with Amaro this week? What's that about?

Colonel, the Angels are in good position to make the playoffs, and, assuming they do, you don't need a deep rotation in the playoffs, as your 4th starter may only make 2 starts. If they can get Haren healthy, one of their top 4 pitchers becomes pretty redundant come playoff time. I think they need more help in the 'pen or on the offensive side, but I could be wrong.

Galvis has a long way to go before he's starting on a winning MLB team. He is plenty young so there is no reason to write him off, but theres just no way he can be on our lineup card every night unless you have 7 other guys who are all at or near the top of their respective positions - which is almost impossible to acquire.

Iorecore: No, Galvis was our MVP. You're crazy.

iceman: I heard Jim Salsbury report it had 'nothing to do with contract negotiations'. Pretty impossible to believe that.

Also, Weaver and Wilson are absolutely killing it this year.

Weaver: 177 ERA+
Wilson: 162 ERA+

Dealing for Hamels would be a move of desperation and overreaction to the ineffectiveness of an otherwise reliable and consistent arm (Haren), which is a bad position from which to trade

well true, Gavlis' ability to hit RBI Doubles after stranding runners on in the prior 20 PA was a true spark.

people look at galvis' numbers from this season and see "bad" but i would argue he did ok, seeing as he's 22 and coming off very little experience in AAA. before the PED announcement, i had hope in his potential to grow offensively.

now i dunno, maybe what i saw wasn't real. i'm pretty bummed. i bought his shirtsey even!

I'm not sure you can say the Angels don't need another SP...Weaver and Wilson have been excellent, but the rest of that rotation is pretty much garbage. If they want to go the patented RAJ "3 Aces" approach, Hamels would definitely be a pretty big upgrade for them.

Fatalotti, there's a huge difference now between winning your division and simply making the playoffs. There are twice as many WCs, but because of the 1-game playoff, each WC is basically a 50% shot of making it to the division series. That makes the division flag much more valuable than a WC bid, and the Angels are only 5 games behind Texas right now.

There's also the looming possibility that a team with a shallower rotation has to use its top starters in the last weekend to win a WC, which could leave someone like Williams or Santana to start a do-or-die playoff game for the Angels. If they add Hamels, the worst-case scenario is starting Weaver, Wilson, Hamels, or Haren on 3 days' rest.

Galvis' 62 wRC+ would have ranked him 23rd among 25 qualified shortstops this year.

If we make the assumption that his slugging ability was inflated ever so slightly by PED usage, and considering that his 62 wRC+ is just 2 points above the 60 wRC+ that Pennington has posted so far this year, it's pretty easy to see that Galvis would be the worst offensive SS in baseball.

Is anybody's glove that good to justify such deplorable hitting?

The Hamels/Amaro conversation was likely about the trade rumors. Amaro should be telling Cole that he is on the block, but that even if he is traded, the Phils still want to sign him back long-term after the season. None of that would be "about contract negotiations" per se.

Iceman - My thought was two-fold...I think RAJ and Cole met so Amaro could say

1. "We're not actively shopping you, but teams are calling us and we're listening. If we're blown away there's a chance we could trade you."

2. "If we do trade you, would you still consider re-signing with us in the offseason, or would that likely preclude that from happening?"

But I'm completely speculating...

re: need vs best player

The only caveat i would add about choosing need vs best player is to strongly consider the risk of potential in terms of expected MLB arrival time. The further away from MLB-read a prospect is, the more it should hurt his overall prospect status.

If Hamels is dealt, they can't afford to center it around some 18yr old stud who potentially is the best player - they need to pick who is the best player the day the trade is made.

Tom, and my point is, if they get Haren right, they have a 3rd pitcher who they can feel comfortable with in any game. If he's just been ineffective due to injury, they can get him healthy. Does anyone really believe that he's forgotten how to pitch?

Haren's ERA+ from 2009-2011 was 121. That's a nice pitcher, and unless they're sure he won't be that pithcer for the rest of the year, then dealing for Hamels doesn't make that much sense, especially if you have to give up a top flight prospect to do it.

There are a lot of teams who would kill to have the Angels starting pitching "problems". I'd look at one of them as a trading partner over the Angels.

What else could they be chatting about, fashion tips?

TTI & AWH~ Read David Murphy's column today.

lorecore, that's why the Angels would be a great fit. They're a contender in the rare position of having a very good young major-leaguer (Bourjos) on their roster but expendable during a playoff race. He can help the Phils immediately, and Segura should be ready to help by the time the Phils play their next meaningful game in April 2013.

Fat - We can only speculate as to how much PEDs aided Galvis' hitting ability, but he did have a very unexpected spike in SLG% over the past two seasons, along with the old "he put on 15-20 pounds of muscle in the off-season" story accompanying it.

Hi career SLG% before last year was under .300, and the past two seasons it's been .392 (2011) and .363 (2012).

That's a pretty significant jump...

It's also worth noting that Haren's peripherals are not far off where he's been in his career. Hsi xFIP is higher than it's been in a few years, but it's sitting at 3.95, which is a far cry from his 4.86 ERA.

Chris, agreed. Part of my point was that if we assume it had some non-zero effect, even if it was an incredibly small effect (like say dropping his 2012 SLG from .363 to .353), that drop, though rather insignificant, likely drops him from 3 rd worst hitting SS to worst hitting SS.

For the record, I'm comparing him to SS, because that is his natural position. There's a bit more of a demand for offense at 2B.

How is Bourjos expendable to the Angels?

Jared Weaver and Haren are both fly ball pitchers. His defense in centerfield is paramount to their success.

Fat - When you say "not far off", what exactly does that mean? It's not like he's getting "unlucky", he's pitching relatively poorly, especially compared to the rest of his career.

His K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB%, FIP, and xFIP are all worse than his career averages by a pretty decent amount...His BABIP is high, and his HR/FB rates are higher than normal as well, but considering he's complaining about back problems that could very well be because his pitches aren't as effective as they used to be.

If I were running the Angels I wouldn't feel very confident running him out there in the stretch-run/postseason to see his standard 6 IP/5 ER outing...

the weight gain could also have been from natural maturation and training. we'll have to see next year how he bounces back.

my guess he starts in AAA next year anyway, providing utley doesn't flame out in ST again. i don't see them putting him at third to start the year.

People who imagine that 3 months of Cole will bring us multiple top prospects need to remember that 1 year of Cliff got us Moe, Larry and Curly.

I just betcha all three -- RAJ, Chollie and Cole -- teared up a bit in "the meeting" after RAJ announced hell will freeze over first before the ownership signs off on 7 years.

Get. Somthing. For. Cole. Soon.

the hook: "The prospect in pipe line is Franco and he's in A."

Franco is struggling mightily in Lakewood so far this year, much like he did last year when he was promoted from short season ball. the young, int'l signing is still Phils' best shot at a future 3B.

Cody Asche was recently promoted to Reading at 3B, but he's had a very tough time over the past few weeks. Asche is a low ceiling, college draftee that will put up better stats most likely in the near term.

RK would prolly rate Asche as the better prospect, while most others would stick with Franco for the time being.

I believe that Hamels told Roob that both himself and Victorino are planning on going as a package deal to the Minnesota Twins in the offseason.

Bourjous is Victorino Lite. As a centerpiece, no thanks.

"Has anyone mentioned the closed-door meeting Hamels had with Amaro this week? What's that about?"

That's a tough one:

Rube: Cole, unfortunately I have to sign you or deal you in the next few weeks.

Cole: Do what you have to do.

Chris, I did mention that they may need to get him healthy. If it's just a health issue, and you expect him to bounce back from that during the season, trading for Hamels is a bad idea. If you expect it to linger all season, that changes the calculus.

Also, I don't think his numbers are that far off his career averages:

K/9: 2012: 7.47, career: 7.63
BB/9: 2.08, 1.90
GB%: 39%, 43.3%
BAbip: .329, .292
xFIP: 3.95, 3.57

Big differences are in BAbip and xFIP. I think if the Angels think they can get him healthy and straightened out, they ought to hold back on going after a stud arm.

Fata: Because they have Mike Trout, who when he plays CF, is already in the conversation for best CF in baseball, given how good he is in all facets of the game.

They could play Trout in LF, Bourjos in CF, and Hunter in RF, which is probably their best defensive alignment. They can also play Trumbo in LF, Trout in CF, and Hunter in RF, which is their best offensive alignment. The point is, they have plenty of options, and that's without playing Vernon Wells, who sucks but is there and making a ton of money.

The point is that they have options, and they have a better CF already on their roster in Trout.

Two cautionary words about Mike Olt: Andy LaRoche. Remember when he was the next Evan Longoria? Yeah, not so much...

Gaining "20 pounds of muscle" in a few months in the off-season is virtually impossible without PEDs. Anytime you hear something like that it is a huge red flag.

Fat - I don't disagree with you on the merits. But knowing what we do about the Angels' management, it's obvious that Arte Moreno, not Jerry DiPoto, makes the big decisions in their front office. Moreno's philosophy is to win now and worry about tomorrow when it arrives.

Moreno also overvalues veterans. Despite having Segura in their farm system, they gave big extensions to 2B Howie Kendrick (signed through 2015) and Erick Aybar (signed through 2016). He's not exactly rational (see Vernon Wells). And he knows that their biggest rival, Texas, also has the pieces to land Hamels for the stretch run. If Arte thinks they can catch Texas, he'll tell DiPoto to get Hamels, consequences be damned.

Jack - "Because they have Mike Trout, who when he plays CF, is already in the conversation for best CF in baseball, given how good he is in all facets of the game."

Isn't Trout in the conversation for the best player in baseball, regardless of position, at this point already? He's just ridiculous...

Phillies send Hamels/Bastardo/Colvin to Texas for Olt/Odor/Scheppers/Gentry

Phillies send Victorino/Polanco to Cincinnati for Billy Hamilton and Daniel Corcino

Thoughts?

Id take Trout over Harper

i was just thinking the other day how badly the Reds probably want to trade Billy Hamilton in a deal for Placido Polanco.

"Id take Trout over Harper"

I'll take either one with a smile on my face for days.

lorecore: d'Arnaud might be the best catching prospect in baseball. No chance you get him. Gose, easily.

I'd take Leandro Castro over Trout or Harper.

Yeah I'm with you NEPP. Trout's game is so damn polished in all facets. The kid is out of this world.

Imagine a team with both...IIRC, Trout was available when the Nats picked Storen the same year as Stras...but they wanted an esy sign reliever instead.

Lekh -

No way that Cincinnati deal happens, even if it were just for one of those guys. Victorino could bring a B-level guy from the right team, but nobody on the level of either Hamilton or Corcino. Polanco would be a throw-in and we'd have to cover his entire salary. If the Phils could swipe Drew Stubbs for Victorino and Polanco, I'd be thrilled.

The Texas deal is closer, but I don't see why Texas would want either Bastardo or Colvin. If the Phils were to put someone along with Hamels in that deal, it would likely be a low-minors 3B prospect like Maikel Franco, since we'd have Olt blocking him.

Billy Hamilton has 122 steal attempts while being on base 157 times. 9 of those times were triples, so realistically 148 times.

Who knows how many times he's been on base with a man occupying the base in front of him.

He literally has to attempt to steal both 2B and 3B every single opportunity possible to have those numbers.

d'arnaud might be the best prospect in baseball at this point...with Harper and Trout in the majors

Yeah, d'Arnaud isn't coming back to Philly. I could see Toronto putting together a solid package for Hamels if they think they're in it at the deadline, though - maybe something like:

CF Anthony Gose
C A.J. Jimenez
a promising low-minors arm (they have tons of 'em)

D'Arnaud tore his ACL a week or two ago. D'Arnaud isn't even D'Arnaud at the moment.

Correction: tore his PCL. Still, not great injury for a catcher to get.

Hamilton probably would be too much for Vic, but then he's several years and a position change away from the majors and Cin is in it too win now. By the time he's as productive as Vic, if he ever is, their window may have closed. Granted, such a deal could only be made if Vic agreed to sign an extension, but it's not dissimilar from the package we gave up to get Pence, a far inferior player to Vic. Also, there's the chance that Hamilton's value may never be higher. Is he really that much more valuable than Gose or Singleton? Plus, Cincy is desperate for a CF and a strong RH bat.

Regarding the Texas deal, they could definitely use a situational lefty who can get strikeouts and the return might be greater than would be fair simply because of the competition for Hamels. Colvin was just a throw in and it could just as easily be someone like Morgan or Wright. I'm not sure Franco would appeal to Texas as they have other 3B prospects besides Olt who are better than Franco. There's also the added benefit of dealing Hamels to a team he has almost zero chance of signing with.

lekh tizdayen = go screw yourself, in english

Pence is far inferior to Vic?

gut check - it's slightly more vulgar than that

REPORT: Amaro/Hamels closed door meeting was to hash out Hamels being slighed in 2008. Amaro apologized, Hamels had no idea what he was talking about.

Jack, forgot about Trout being able to play CF.

Tom, Chris and Jack make good points, and I could see an argument now for the Angels dealing for Hamels, but I still don't think it would be a good idea, and I don't think it will happen.

Franco has started to improve as the rest of the guys there. Franco is only 19 plenty of room to grow. I will say this if Walding keeps it up in short season then it could get interesting. Not sure what you expect from a 19 yr old playing first full season?

By the way, Mike Trout is only trailing Joey f#$king Votto in the majors in fWAR.

And he's what, 20?

Let's face it...everything we are saying as far as trades won't happen.

Those are some crazy SB numbers. Almost ridiculous. Its like he's actually his HOF namesake come to life.

Sliding Billy Hamilton, long foregotten Phils alum. 914 career SB's.

Oh, and 3rd in the majors in fWAR: Carlos Ruiz

Bedrosian's Beard: You are so very cute.

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