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Monday, July 30, 2012

Comments

I'm sure it's "happening" but it hasn't yet "happened"

Pence is the one player on the block who the Phillies don't have to move in July. Just by way of prediction, I think Victorino and Blanton are gone by tomorrow; Pence stays until January; Pierre and Wigginton move in August waiver deals.

Nuts. Had high hopes for this weekend. Don't see why they wouldn't be moving Wiggy, Pierre, Polanco, and Blanton if not Vic/Pence as well (although someone needs to play OF next year).

Along with those big FA contracts, the what Amaro does in the next couple of days will be large moments in his tenure.

Jason, Are you going to change the Beerleaguer artwork from the guy swinging to the guys feet in an upward position ?

Hugh, I could see Polanco being moved in August (waiver wire).

Isn't Pence's trade value higher now than it will be in January?

I think Ruben is going to try and move as many guys off of this year's payroll as he can in order to bring them under the luxury tax for 2012. That way, if they have to go over the luxury tax in 2013, they'll only pay the 17.5% rather than the 30% rate. That's why I don't think Amaro is going to wait until the winter to trade a guy like Pence.

Sophist, I'm waiting to see if Polanco survives until August. I agree that Pence's value is likely as high as it ever will be. I just get the sense that the Phils aren't getting offered what they need to move him right now (a position player who will be on the 25 man in 2013, I think) and will keep the option open to keep him in the OF for next year. I think, ultimately, they'll move him to loosen up money for other pieces. Just guessing, of course.

Pierre won't slip through waivers. He's an easy block candidate because of his salary. Wiggy would get through.

just got my email to "take 20% off the phillies.com shop". I wonder if Ruben is calling every gm today with the same offer for his roster.

Last thread towards the end was great:

1:06 am- Reported deal of Pence to the Giants (nothing coming back announced)

1:31 am- Prospect Tommy Joseph mentioned but far from confirmed

1:34 am- Giants VP denies the rumor


8 HOURS LATER- 541 gives us his analysis of the deal and says "If it is true...."


And people wonder why guys say "Whatever Amaro does people won't be happy." They are already castigating fake trades.

Jerry Crasnick tweet: #Phillies have too many trade options for Victorino to fathom that he'll stay put. #SFGiants #Dodgers #Reds #Pirates

also from crasnick: #Phillies would probably want Gary Brown in any deal sending OF to #SFGiants. Nate Schierholtz might be a more realistic option.


Why on earth would we want Schierholtz?

Hugh: I think Sophist's point is that if you're going to move Pence anyway to clear money, then you should do it now because he has a higher value now than he does during the offseason.

If you don't trade him now because you are underwhelmed by the offers, and then you trade him for even less in the offseasont move money, the you've screwed it up.

Schierholtz is a complete dog. I don't want that stiff.

My source confirms it, Lee + Cash to Rangers for Olt and other prospects, and Pence and Blanton are going to the Giants, just waiting for ownership approval.

Coupled with my trepidation for reading that Vic has been traded is my fervent plea that we make a good trade. If we're going to lose players who've meant something to us, please oh please make it count, RAJ.

DPatrone, I would be dancing in the streets if that trade happens. But it won't.

DPat: well, that would certainly make for a busy day on Beerleaguer.


Back to Tommy Joesph: he'd be a fine return on Victorino or Blanton or Pierre. But for Pence, I'd hope he'd only be a secondary piece. Schierholtz is terrible. If the team took a chance on Brandon Belt, that'd be pretty good though, he's like San Fran's version of Dom Brown, top prospect who has underwhelmed in the show so far.

I'll second GBrettfan. Hate to lose Victorino and/or Lee but Rube better not waste his bullets.

I refuse to believe that Amaro will trade Lee one year after he turned down bigger offers to sign with Philly. Unless Lee specifically requested it, it would send a terrible message to all potential FAs.

Why would a team with Cain, Vogelsong, Bumgarner, Zito & Lincecum want Joe Blanton?

What would hamels' contract say to potential FAs?

BAP: Maybe they're trading us Blanton for one of those guys. Just kidding. I have no idea why they would want Blanton, unless they have a plan to then flip him for another player?? More likely, it's not true.

Why would a team in that ballpark want Pence in RF?

And if I've said it once I've said it a thousand times: unless the Phillies unload Lee's ENTIRE salary, all they will have chosen to do is spend more on a lesser starter (Hamels) while paying another team to let Lee pitch for them, & weakening their overall rotation (a HUGE mistake should Halladay actually prove injured).

I think I'll be glad when 1 August arrives.

According to the Rotoworld site, the O's are interested in Blanton, and the Reds are interested in Pierre.

Yeah I'm at the point where I'm done reading and talking about rumors.

GTown: The justification for a Lee trade certainly diminishes if you eat salary. But if you eat an acceptable amount -- say $5M per year -- that still frees up $20M in payroll, which is no small amount. Mind you, I would never trade him JUST for payroll relief. But if you could get Olt and substantial payroll relief, I would do it.

Of course, signing a guy to a 6 year, $144M contract one year, and trading him away & eating salary the very next year, WOULD send a signal that our GM has no long-term plan whatsoever, but is just like a kid in a toy store who has to have the most expensive bike, and demands that his parents buy it now. But I already kind of think that, with or without a Cliff Lee trade.

Sorry - read here a lot, but don't post a lot. Figures I'd share these two tweets from Heyman:

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymenCBS
West Coast source tells me #Phillies Shane Victorino to #Giants for top prospect Gary Brown + $$. Waiting for SF front office confirmation.

Sources say that #Phillies Hunter Pence has been traded to the #Reds for Billy Hamilton + Arroyo. Calls into teams, waiting for confirmation

How is it that Baltimore is in 2nd place in the AL East but they are constantly rumored to be interested in some of our less marketable pieces to be regular contributors for them?

The Giants are giving the Phillies money in the deal? Pretty hard to believe.

Phils to get Billy Hamilton? Next year may not be good baseball, but it would certainly be an entertaining track meet.

Have to say, the trade deadline loses its luster for me when my team is in a position of selling. In past years, I was pretty excited to get guys like Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, and Pence. Getting a bunch of prospects you've never heard of, few if any of whom will ever pan out, is going to be considerably less satisfying. I will take some small degree of satisfaction in the symbolism of "cleaning house," but that satisfaction will wear off pretty quickly.

Wow. Brown and Hamilton are two of the toolsiest, most athletic players in all of the minor leagues.

This would blow people's minds on here if true.

Spicoli: If Rube turned Shane's expiring contract into Brown, I'd have some nice things to say about him today. Plus, Shane would get to keep killing the Dodgers, so that's a plus.

Gotta love Hamilton, Arroyo - m'eh

b_a_p: Points taken. No doubt Olt would be a great addition, but I'd want more than just Olt for Lee (just as I would have wanted more than just Olt for Hamels), esp. if the Phillies are kicking in money. One must also take into account that "freeing up money" doesn't necessarily guarantee the team will choose to spend it elsewhere. We're about to find out exactly how willing the Phillies are to incur the luxury tax. I'm still guessing "not very".

But, I think that's a fake Heyman account. So nevermind.

Spicoli: That's a fake account, bro Notice the spelling of Heyman's name in the @username.

Well...take it for what its worth. In my mind, Heyman and Olney are the biggest All-Stars at being wrong all the time.

Getting cash + Brown for Vic does seem far-fetched. As does basically trading for 2 lead-off hitters. Hamilton would be fun to watch. If the Arroyo part is true, that would have to mean Blanton is gone too....but wouldn't Arroyo also have a hefty contract?

Billy Hamilton becoming the 1st guy to steal 100 bases in mlb since forever will be fun to watch if that trade went down. still would like a little more than that for Pence though.

Wrong twtter feed for heyman. last name is spelled wrong.

Arroyo is in the 1st year of a 2 year 23.5m deal

Bed's Beard: ha! oh well.

lol fake twitter accounts. I stick with Rosenthal and pretty much him only. He seems to be the most plugged in.

If D.Pat's source is right, I better get some ketchup for my hat.

Bed's Beard - nice catch. Dude even has the same profile pic too.

Oh well...the deals seemed pretty far fetched anyway.

Blanton to be flipped to O's from Giants.

Amazing how your source came up with that key bit of info, once BL questioned why the Giants are interested in Blanton. *rolls eyes*

The O's want Blanton? Yet more proof that the O's hire the handicapped in their front office. Nice for the handicapped (mentally), bad for the O's fans.

Again, very hard to believe any of these rumors.

If D Patrone's 'source' is right, does that make him the Woodward or Bernstein?

Has D Patrone's source ever been right? I can't remember a single time. That's a serious question.

Jack - The Pence thing. Yes that is sorta what I was getting at. Only way moving him for "less" in January wouldn't be a mistake is if (a) the Phils evaluate the January return differently than us; (b) some (vague) thing occurs later in the year or offseason such that Pence's value to the Phils diminishes w/r/t other OF options and other position player options.

If something like B occurred it would be regrettable to move Pence for less later, but it's hard to fault that loss since it may be unforeseeable. Amaro is in a tough stop because he can't just maximize his return with rawer prospects -- guys like Singleton or Colvin. He's looking to toughen up a competitor in mid-stream. If we're just selling there's no question Pence needs to be moved now. But we're also looking to compete in 2013 and the Phils need a center and rightfielder.

Blanton to Balto makes sense to me. That team's rotation was in a shambles when I last looked at them, and I would guess they've used 9-10 guys as starters this year due to a revolving door in the five slot. Blanton has held the opposition to 3 runs or less in 10 of his 20 starts, which is very solid for a no. 5 guy. His last 8 starts have been generally very solid and, his stuff looks as good as it's been since he's been in Philly. For a team trying to maximize its opportunity to win every night, Blanton would be a good option to shore up a weak rotation.

aksmith, I don't think so. I'm pretty sure his "source" is his own backside.

Blanton for Bundy! Get it done Ruben!

I have a feeling 'DPatrone' is probably an imposter, as even he wouldn't go as far as to humiliate himself with fake trades at this point.

I'm willing to make this "trade" offer:

If DPatrone's source gets this one right, I promise to never again make fun of DPatrone for telling us that he has a source in the Phillies' front office.

And if DPatrone's source gets this wrong, DPatrone promises to quit writing posts about a claimed source who has never been right & who no other poster actually believes exists.

BAP - Nah. I love D Patrone's posts. It is an Internet blog on a sport team.

bap, why would you make that bet? Either way, you lose!

Blanton is almost as glamorous as the city of Baltimore.

Evil Ed Wade: I get the sense that you are mocking Charm City.

I hope the Phillies get Partlow and Snoop back in a deal for Blanton.

Schoop? That would be a nice return on Blanton

Has D Patrone's source ever been right? I can't remember a single time. That's a serious question.Posted by: aksmith | Monday, July 30, 2012 at 11:55 AM
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It would be great if he was correct about this one .... the other times would be of no relevance...

pence for pat burrell - straight up... with pence teaching burrell his bat swinging technique..

I don't know Jbird, it is a lovely place if you love the big piles of slag strategically placed as you pass through town.

Evil Ed Wade: but, but . . . there's the inner harbor! which is nice. If you squint just enough so you can't see the dead rats floating by.

Seriously though, the Aquarium and Camden Yards are the only reason to venture into Balteemore.

Well, well.

Buster Olney‏@Buster_ESPN

Source: Cliff Lee is in play in trade talks today. Rangers obviously the most logical landing spot, with 3B Mike Olt as possible centerpiece.

It seems like every time I read about a Phillies trade rumor, the rumor has them seeking a relief pitcher in exchange for whichever player they're trading away. Something tells me that, by the time July 31 has come and gone, the Phillies are going to have about 6 new relievers, none of whom is any better than what they already have.

Other thing about pence: you can always trade himif the Phils are out next July. At that point this well be a team of one year deals any way and the future is more clear.

Dpat you devil!!

Cliff Lee back to Texas and coming up small in October would be fun again huh?

so DPat and Olney have the same source? I'm not sure who's credibility that hurts more.

Not that I believe Olney any more, individually, than I do DPat's 'source.' But hearing the same thing from both of them raises an eyebrow.

I'm with BAP on this one. If it happens, not only am I thrilled about the trade itself (depending on how much salary we have to eat), but I will forever worship at the altar of DPat's source.

did someone hack Heyman's twitter? Crazy trade rumors

Bill Cullen: "Will the real DPatrone please stand up?"

WHY DID WE RE-SIGN HAMELS. RAJ HAS NO FREAKIN CLUE.

sources tell me not to believe any of this ridiculous trade speculation being made by people with no lives

"sources tell me not to believe any of this ridiculous trade speculation being made by people with no lives"

- says guy posting on the internet.

DPatrone wins again

My sources tell me that Rube will make a couple trades in the next 24 hours.

but I'm not posting assenine trade rumors jail bird

Am I the only one who finds this kind of fun? Like I legitimately hope that the Phils can pull off deals that help rebuild the franchise.

The only reason it would be entertaining is because we are left with meaningless games until 2013

I agree jack, but all the stupid people making fake trade rumors takes away from the fun

Rich: I'd much rather chat about trade rumors than about whether or not Halladay is injured or Howard's contract. JW's post was about the trade deadline. If you'd like to introduce a different topic, feel free.

Cliff Lee back to Texas and coming up small in October would be fun again huh?

Posted by: Joe D | Monday, July 30, 2012 at 12:29 PM

11 GS, 3 CG, 82 IP, 2.52 ERA, .927 WHIP, 8.9 SO/BB
Cliff Lee career postseason stats

One bad WS start for Texas in '10 and Game 2 of the ALDS in '12 for the Phils must be the basis for your reasoning. I saw Chase Utley struggle to throw the ball to first base in the playoffs one year. Does that mike him a choke artist os a crappy defender?

Don't get me wrong jbird, peoples ideas and wishes are great,it's the people claiming to have inside info on trades that bothers me.

"Don't get me wrong jbird, peoples ideas and wishes are great,it's the people claiming to have inside info on trades that bothers me."

Lighten up. What exactly is there to be bothered by? It's not like we're discussing life and death situations here.

That Guy - Its a fake account...and I fell for it hook, line, and sinker. Though I always think Heyman's wrong anyway.

thanks spicoli. I figured it was fake when none of the other sites picked up on it.

From Pirates beat writer Rob Biertempfel

"One #Pirates source just laughed when I asked how high is #Phillies asking price for Victorino. "I'll tell you later," he said, an indication team had cooled on acquiring the soon-to-be-FA. Shin-Soo Choo remains possibility, but Pirates understandably are very reluctant to include Starling Marte in deal. Same goes for Pence."

Lighten up. What exactly is there to be bothered by? It's not like we're discussing life and death situations here.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, July 30, 2012 at 01:00 PM

-----------

We're not? Oh Yeah, that's right... :) /s

@Rowl...trust me I'm well aware of how great Lee has been in most of his postseason starts but his most recent outings have been completely uninspiring and I think it's safe to assume there will be more of the same going forward. And the fact that he has been average at best this year doesn't make me think any differently.

In our own farm system, Klaw last week said reports on May have been pretty bad and that he's probably not a top 100 guy anymore.

In better news, Adam Morgan threw a complete game for Clearwater k'ing 9. Sickles had him as a guy who "other's considered" his midseason re-rank along with Cody Asche, so in the 100-150 range. DeFratus threw 1.1 shutout innings and Brown went 3-7.

If we were to trade Lee, this is the way I view it:

We acquired him because we hoped to win another WS and wanted to have strong SP as a means to that end.

Now that the dream for 2012 is shot to hell (riddled with bullet holes), and since Hamels is younger, the decision was made to make him our prime investment over Lee.

I realize that this thinking has some problems from the point of view of wanting to compete again next season, with SP the cornerstone. But as everyone has pointed out, we have many holes to fill and not much money to fill it with.

I wonder if this would explain the FO thinking, if indeed Lee is on the block?

I think that is absolutely the line of thinking GBrett and it makes a world of sense.

I'm very much ready to see Brown with the big club again. What else do we need to see out of him in AAA? It's time to stop handling him with kid gloves and let him read fly balls at the big league level where every game is just as meaningless as they are in AAA now.

If you don't like reading about trade speculation, what are you doing on a site dedicated to a baseball team 24 hours before the trade deadline?

Seriously. If you can't get any enjoyment out of the next 24 hours, I don't know what to tell you, because the rest of the season is going to be incredibly uneventful.

Gary Brown is a name that keeps getting kicked around if the Phillies decide to trade Pence to the Giants. Potential future leadoff hitter and CF.

I don't like this trend:

2011: 4 aces
2012: 3 aces
2013: 2 aces
(if we trade Lee & Halladay's shoulder is ok)

Trade speculation is fine,claiming to have inside info on trades ruins the enjoyment to a degree for me

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