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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Comments

Worley has been pretty much of a bulldog. Not easy to pitch at less than your full ability and hurting, but he's soldiered through so far.

Regardless of his results, I respect the effort he's giving.

Anyone hear that the Phillies asked for Brad Lincoln in exchange for Victorino from the Pirates?

***Not easy to pitch at less than your full ability and hurting, but he's soldiered through so far.***

I wonder how much help Cole has been with that as he pitched through a similar injury in the last couple years.

On a different take:

If he stays on course this year, Hamels will have averaged 15 wins/season since he became a full-time starter in '07.

Add another 4 wins to this total this year and that takes him to 90 wins.

No way he passes Roberts (234 wins and #2 all time) or Carlton (241 wins and 1st all time) but pretty quickly should be in the middle of the list:

3. Alexander (190 wins)
4. Short (132 wins)
5. Simmons (115 wins)
6. Schilling (101 wins)
7. Orth (100 wins)
8. Ferguson (99 wins)
9. Taylor (96 wins)
10. Sparks (95 wins)

If you don't know who the bottom 4 guys are, they are all players at the turn of the 20th century.

Phils as a franchise haven't exactly had their share of great starting pitchers. If Lee would have had a typical year (say at least 12-13 wins) he wound have ended the year at 35 wins and had an outside shot at making this list.

My bet is then when this contract is done Hamels up somewhere around ~160-170 wins career all-time in a Phils' uniform.

You realize how ridiculously good Carlton was though because he won 241 games in just 15 years (over 16 wins/season and 17 games pro-rated to 162 game) here and on some really crappy/mediocre teams in the early/mid-70s.

Yeah, I saw that, Redblurb. Not surprised the Pirates said no.

Kratz starts, but I'll still be shocked if Ruiz doesn't finish...

Speaking of Kratz, is he the next Chris Coste (Career minor league catcher with a good bat who forces himself onto a 25 man roster spot for a couple years)?

Think that acquiring Wandy yesterday could change their minds though? If Victorino is going in a trade, I would hope the price is high, just as it would be for Pence.

Great tweet from TheGoodPhight during the presser - "This is like the Baptism scene in Godfather; Victorino, Pence, and Blanton are being liquidated."

The big rumor on Twitter is that the Indians are closing in on a deal for Victorino, and that the Dodgers are still in on Vic and Pence even after the Hanley deal.

Not that it matters long-term but who plays CF for the remainder of the season if we deal Vic?

DO they go Nix/Mayberry/Pence?

If Pence or Vic goes, Dom Brown has to be the replacement, whether it's in CF or RF. They need to know what they've got in Brown before the offseason.

Interesting split:

Since Schwimer was recalled on June 2nd, he's got a 2.60 ERA in 17.1 IP with 17 SO/7 BB.

He's actually been a fairly solid middle reliever.

***They need to know what they've got in Brown before the offseason.***

Good point.

Yeah, I'd have to think Brown is the plan, if/when Vic/Pence head out.

What's crazy is the year Carlton won 27 games, the phillies only won 54 games total.

*correction, 59 wins. Still...

NEPP, I think Kratz might be in the cards, mostly because they've seen that he's a cheap and better alternative to someone like Schneider.

My primary concern is that, yes, Kratz is just fine in THIS version of a backup catcher role. However, as noted yesterday, with Chooch playing upwards of 135 games or so, I can't imagine that's a sustainable game plan. So, is Kratz a guy who can contribute if/when Chooch resorts to a more friendly schedule? Not so sure, but I'd still take him over Schneider every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Cole's contract's impact on next year's bullpen can be mitigated if DeFratus & Stutes come back strong (for league minimum $). Still think the team needs 1 more established arm to take Contreras's intended role and soak up 7th or 8th inning duty w/ Bastardo. If Schwimmer really has turned a corner like NEPP says, that'd be gravy.

Schwim has shown signs of life, as has Bastardo. And Paps' fastball was about as optimistic as I've been all summer. Though the Brewers bullpen might be slightly skewing my optimism.

Actually, as much as I'll have to pinch myself soon enough, the last few games have given me just a glimmer of hope that this season is going to be nothing if not very entertaining the rest of the way. Nice to have the band back together (and almost as nice to NOT have Mini Mart around).

Re top prospects who were traded and have panned out:

The Twins traded Wilson Ramos, who was a Top 100 prospect, for Matt Capps. Ramos is injured & out this year, but had a pretty strong rookie year. That was viewed as an insane trade by the Twins at the time & looks just as bad in hindsight.

Also, Car-Go was kind of beyond the prospect stage when the A's traded him. He played for the A's as a rookie & played badly. I actually watched a lot of A's games that year & have never been able to shake the feeling that his stardom is almost entirely Coors Field driven. His home/road splits rather back up this theory.

Don't understand the "see what we've got with Brown" thing over 2 months. Definitely get him the MLB at bats, but he needs 500 of them, not 200.

Didn't we just go thru this with AAAberry?

STS, think we can lobby Selig to extend the season to get Brown 500 AB's?

If there's one person I think would be crushed to be traded, it's Victorino. He strikes me as such an emotional person, both on and off the field, who has put his whole heart and soul into being a member of the Phillies. Not that others don't give it their all, but Vic seems a particularly passionate player rather than a mix of passion and reason.

It's speculative on my part, but I would cite his speech at the Boys & Girls Club as one reason why I feel this way.

BAP: but the A's got CarGo from Arizona before that. So he panned out, just not for the A's.

WP - Kratz can contribute as much as Schneider and has a better throwing arm.

Schneider was released would probably get picked up at this point because he bats LH and is a 'veteran' backstop.

Biggest knock against Schneider at this point is that he has had a leg injury every year since '09 that has caused him to go on to the DL and missed at least a month or more.

Really hope the Phils move on from Schneider & don't resign him next year. Need a backup who can play 40-50 games and not spend at least at 4-6 weeks on the DL.

JBird: Ah, true. I was thinking of the 2nd Car-Go trade.

I'd be shocked if the phils actually manage to make a legit post-season berth, but remember, Eric Bruntlett has not 1 but 2 different articles in the HOF, for an unassisted triple play and a world series winning run, so anything's possible.

Cole's contract's impact on next year's bullpen can be mitigated if DeFratus & Stutes come back strong (for league minimum $). Still think the team needs 1 more established arm to take Contreras's intended role and soak up 7th or 8th inning duty w/ Bastardo. If Schwimmer really has turned a corner like NEPP says, that'd be gravy.

Posted by: Jbird


I agree with this, Jbird. We'll get Herndon back, too. While he's no great reliever, I think it will help. Much as I hate admitting it since I've complained about him lots when he's pitched. He's not a pitcher I enjoy.

Cody Ransom playing for the Brewers! Man if they kept him they'd be set at 3rd.

MG, agreed entirely. I don't see a single thing that Schneider brings that Kratz cannot.

My only question is whether or not Kratz could play even MORE often, as the game toll for Chooch needs to be managed next season. No doubt in my mind that Schneider absolutely could NOT handle more PT, since he can't even handle the limited PT he's seen in the last 2 years.

Geez, Ransom bounces around a lot. Yankees, D-backs and Brewers since he was released by the Phils.

Wow, I cannot even fathom how disgusted with their team any Brewers fans might be in this series...

Carlos Gomez is on the list of punchable faces, right?

The last time the Brewers played this bad against us in a series, they fired their manager.

Jbird: Bargain Bullpen (pick 7) --

Bastardo, DeFratus, Diekman, Herndon, Papelbon, Savery, Schwimer, Stutes.

Oh noez. :-(

I'll be surprised if Savery is an integral part of next year's 'pen.

And it goes without saying that I'd much prefer that RAJ find another starter to keep KK as swingman.

NEPP..I remember flying back from Vegas on that Sunday when they completed the sweep. Man was that an awesome weekend.

Here are your 2013 Phillies:

Fontenot/Wigginton at third base. Not a platoon because Wiggy is a prodigious talent and has shown he hits righties just as well as . . .


Second Base: Freddie Galvis until Chase Utley's ghost decides to end his Summer vacation and return to being a shell of his former self.

Carlos Ruiz sharing the catching duties with backup catcher Carlos Ruiz. Enough said there.

Outfield: Mayberry/Nix in left. Dom in right. Pence in another city. Vic maybe in center, back on a two year 6mil/per contract. Or Tyson Gillies with a crutch, protective headgear and surgically reconstructed hamstrings.

Rollins at short.
Howard at first.

Starting Pitching:
Cole
Worley
KK
Pettibone
Cloyd
Doc, Lee both to the DL for the season. Cole will join them in September due to a tired arm because he's never taken out of a game all year until he's given up a dozen homeruns.

Pen:
Papelbon
Bastardo
Schwimer
Horst
DeFratus
Deikman

I know a lot of this sounds like nonsense. But I think everyone will be surprised at how much of it happens. And even if I'm way off, I've been emboldened by Clout's top ten prospect list. I now know why he rarely makes a forward looking statement and sticks to the smarmy bitching at others' posts.

Preacher: Seeing as how he's not going anywhere, I'd also prefer Kendrick stay in the 'pen. Doubt that will happen, though.

Just so Mick0 is clear, that was Larry Anderson taking a jab at Jimmy Rollins in leading all of MLB in infield pop-ups. Unfairly, too, I'm sure...

aksmith: Wigginton's due to make $4M next year if the Phils exercise his option. If they don't, there's a $500K buyout.

I agree that next year's 3rd base situation may well end up as a platoon between Fontenot and some other guy. I just can't see Wiggy being that guy at $3.5M.

Savery will be AAA depth next year. Bastardo and Diekman are both better right now and have far more upside.

If they can land a quality RH setup man, pushing the other guys back into lower-leverage roles, that bullpen should be fine.

Utley seems to be snagging a bunch of walks lately. Working a ton of counts. That alone is something that has an impact on the rest of the lineup.

ColonelTom, not sure of his contract situation, but Horst is better than Savery, too.

Gtown: I said they needed one more established setup arm. There are a few acceptable options available in the offseason.

Monty says they will be willing to go over the luxury tax next year if they have to. What a surprise!

Unless he'll come back for $1M or so, Wiggy's gone next year. He's not a viable option at 3B or 2B defensively, and without that, he's a fungible 4-A 1B type.

How does that not happen 5-10 times a game with Wigginton over there?

Agree on Utley WP. He has a much better approach lately. It's refreshing to see a walk once in a while.

I just can't see Wiggy being that guy at $3.5M.

b_a_p: Why? Just because he's a Wes Helms clone, only even worse in the field?

LA is asking about Polanco. lol.

I'd rather have Abe Nunez at 3rd than Wigginton.

GTown: Yeah, that about sums it up.

Who was the one one here saying that Hamels wouldn't re-sign here because Amaro has upset him before in arbitration hearings?

Jbird: I wasn't putting that on you. It's my feeling the Phils will cheap out in certain areas in an attempt to stay away from the luxury tax, & the bullpen is a likely candidate.

re: top 100 prospects being traded

I think Sophist grossly underestimated how many prospects do turn into valuable pieces in the MLB. Good job by jbird/nepp to list a handful very quickly.

Also, one of Sophist's comebacks was that you have to go back years to find one....well thats why their prospects, because they take time to develop.

I like the fact that the Phillies have shown an ability to come from behind the last few nights. But I don't at all like the fact that they keep having to do so.

This team should just buy a rain machine to push these day games into night games.

Watching on Gameday. Did Cody Ransom really just lay down a sacrifice to bring up the pitcher?

Why was Ransom bunting there?

Will.

I always enjoy the trade deadline b/c it brings out all the confident "no way X will happen", and when it does, people are shocked they're wrong.

This Brewers team is redefining awful.

BAP, they've got the Brewers right where they want them.

When does Manny Parra get into the game?

Amaro in booth "I'm the first to tell you I'm not comfortable with a six-year deal."

It's interesting to see both Vic and Pence (and rumors of Lee) on the trading block.

My guess is the guy they'll feel the most "pressure" to move is Vic, because he's an FA at the end of the season.

Pence is under control and can be traded in the offseason, and the same is true for Lee.

The only "gun to their heads" scenario where they might want something in return that they won't be able to get in December is with Vic.

Rollins has an absolute canon for an arm. Nice play.

Watching Gomez, I can't help but think he'd fit in perfectly on the '06-'07-era New York Mets. Upon looking at his BR page, I am reminded that he was an '07 Met.

Bunting to bring up the pitcher was one of the more bizarre things I've seen this year. Roenicke's decision-making this series has made Cholly look like a tactical genius.

awh, interesting take, particularly regarding Pence.

Whether or not they move Vic will tell us a lot about their plans for him. If he sticks around past the trade deadline, he'll be roaming CF next season.

Also, as crazy as it sounds, I can't help but wonder if, now that this team is starting to "gel" (and more importantly play entertaining baseball, which means butts in seats), if RAJ doesn't just stand pat and see what happens. I'd prefer a Vic/Pence move to get a 3B, but I don't want to move either, just for the sake of moving someone.

DH Phils: I know. It's shocking that he & Lastings Milledge were on the same team, isn't it?

Attaboy, Wes ... I mean, Ty. Keep on truckin'. You'll get the hang of it one of these days.

I am much happier being a fan of a team that is willing to spend some money to acquire and retain star players. I work in Houston. They've been having a fire sale since last year. All of their stars are gone.

I'm going to their home game tonight. I went to see them last on July 7th when they beat the Brewers 6-3 to snap a long losing streak. Since then they have won ONE GAME! I'd much rather worry about luxury tax than to be rooting for a sad sack organization like the Astros, gutting their team and abandoning their league.

Olney is reporting Phils have "reached out to dangle Jimmy Rollins"

The Astros had stars?

Hail hail Kratz!

They must really love Freddy Galvis.

You can't stop Eric Kratz, you can only hope to contain him.

I think he was trying to bunt it diwn the line to Wigginton, but pushed it towards Worley. I'd be testing Wiggy all day every day if I was an opposing team.

If Kratz keeps hitting like this, he might get to play the whole game!

I've spent the last 2 years reading posts from Iceman about how "bizarre" I was for thinking that Erik Kratz would be an improvement on Brian Schneider. I look forward to reading the retraction.

Olney is a stooge.

WP, true. My overall point is that the Hamels deal (which I like) does not force them to trade anyone this season.

It affects next season's payroll and luxuray tax threshold.

If they want to get rid of Pence's and Lee's salary they're under no pressure to do it by the trade deadline and can be patient with them.

Vic, OTOH, would need to be moved by 7/31 in order for them to get something in return - other than draft picks that have reduced value.

Mark Parent is better than Brian Schneider...Mark Parent of now.

BTW, nice clutch hit by Kratz!

BAP: He's had 50 ABs in his MLB career and he's 32. I think most people would of thought it to be bizarre. However, I want anyone playing for the phillies to be good, so go Kratz!

Lee for Profar, Rollins for Lee(have to get a Lee back)+

The more I think about it, the more comfortable I'd be with keeping Victorino and giving him a qualifying offer. Overall, I think 1 year at $12M for Victorino in '13 would be better than the free agent alternatives: pretty much every free agent signing requires you to give an extra year or two, as the Phillies have learned. It's probably a bit more than he'd get as a FA in AAV terms, but much less in terms of years. I think the suggestions from some that he'll be attainable for 2 years, $6M per year are crazy.

If you can get a Brad Lincoln type (a good, cost-controlled, multiple-inning bullpen arm), I'd move Victorino. If you're looking at a couple of C-level prospects, I'd just as soon spin the qualifying offer/draft pick roulette wheel.

BAP, as one of Tuffy Goosewurst's biggest advocates, I'd begrudgingly concede to you.

Though, to be fair, even drunk Dane Sardinha could give Schneider a run for his money.

Preacher: Just so long as he wasn't required to block the plate.

"...dangle Jimmy Rollins"? After just signing him this offseason?

And replace him with who - .226/.254/.363, PED using Freddy Galvis?

BAP- I thought your obsession with Kratz was and still is bizarre. Whether or not he's better than Schneider isn't really debatable.

How much more do they need to see from Wigginton at 3B? He isn't a 3B.

E5 definitely.

lorecore: Far easier to remember prospects who pan out than those who don't. Your surmise is simply a surmise, nothing based on fact.

Wow, Wigginton is making a case for Utley's lawn chair.

DH Phils: I think I tend to agree with you about Vic.

Absolutely see what is offered for him before July 31st, but having him back on a qualifying offer would not be the worst choice in the world.

johnny: You just made my argument. 50 ABs is an utterly meaningless sample size. 1500 ABs at AAA told us he's a pretty good hitter.

C'mon, people. Wigginton at 3B. AGAIN. How can Charlie fail to see he's a f*cking DISASTER there?

In waht many BL posters feel is a down year for Rollins, he still has the 11th highest OPS among wualifying MLB SS.

(source espn stats)

Nice job by Worley.

Dempster is seriously allowed to pitch today, while he's deciding whether or not to accept a trade??? That's asinine!

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