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Monday, July 16, 2012



Hopefully, all of the buzz of Anaheim going after midseason upgrades will be enough to pry Olt and another prospect from the Rangers.

Votto's out for 2-4 weeks. Perhaps a package of Pierre and Mayberry will bring in a half decent return from the Reds. Between the two of them, they'd address a few holes in Cincinnati.

what is JW smoking lately? Trading Rollins to start Galvis and re-acquire Quintin Berry?

Bring back Grassie!

Lorecore: What's your beef with me, bro? Every post.

Will: What prospects are those? I dont like their system at all beyond their top guys who the phils won't get.

Henry Rodriguez is the only one I like, but i think even his stock has risen past what we could get.

Pierre AND Mayberry? What the hell would CIN want with Mayberry? To completely fill their roster with 4th OFs?

I'm shocked enough that they want Pierre. There is no way in hell they would want Mayberry.

jw: whens the last time I posted to your attention? And in this case, my beef would be your opinion that Rollins should be traded, one which i stated threads ago before you specifically addressed.


***What the hell would CIN want with Mayberry? ***

He's versatile...he can suck offensively at all 3 OF spots AND 1B.

You cant beat that.

Han Solo: I thought ESPN was airing a ball game tonight. What is this, a documentary on the moon?

Obi-Wan: That's no moon. That's Prince Fielder.

I said I would be open to trading Rollins. There's a difference. I said Quintin Berry could intrigue the Phillies, not that I wanted him. Said this because I know what type of player intrigues the Phillies. They draft 100 Quintin Berrys each season.

There is enough chatter about Rollins that I really think they are considering it. I don't want it to happen, but if you add in other areas, it's an intriguing proposition.

From the last thread, regarding trading Lee:

Have we all collectively come to the decision that the Lee move was impulsive and stupid?

I'm really torn on it. Leaning towards yes. Obviously, if he's pitching like he did last year, no one wants him traded. But we all knew (or should have known) it was going to be Lee or Hamels. I'd be a lot more comfortable with Lee having a down year if he was 29 and in the prime of his career.

NEPP: Martinez sucks at more positions & in more ways than Mayberry could ever dream. Cincy would love him.

Its a shame we never had Quintin Berry in our own system...oh wait.

On a side note, JWs job is to spur discussion if nothing else. I dont get why so many get upset when he makes posts on his blog that do exactly that.

Pierre AND Mayberry in place of Votto-

well might as well just give the Reds the NL and call it a season.

Iceman: And they should consider it, trading Rollins. Really have to think long and hard about what you're getting back and about Galvis. Defensively, they're better going forward with Galvis.

"There is enough chatter about Rollins that I really think they are considering it."

Even if 95% of the chatter is coming from Beerleaguer?

NEPP: Which is what I did in the previous thread with Stubbs and Heisey, which spurred not only discussion, but some buy-in.

Offensively, I dont see Galvis as the answer at SS and I doubt the FO does either.

Rollins has provided good value for his contract so far.

I can't recall the last time I was less enthused to watch a west coast game. Generally, the only ones I watch in real time. I have a soft spot for Joe Blanton but, it seems like a good night to give in to sleep the first time it suggests itself.

I'm dubious on Galvis, especially next year. If they had real power threats at a few spots in the order, you could gamble on him, if a team blew you away for Rollins. I think trading Rollins, now, is a non-starter.

I don't think anyone's untradeable. But if trading Rollins left Galvis as the everyday shortstop, then you'd better get massive value out of that Rollins trade. He'd probably have to yield you about a .900 OPS player at 3rd base or one of the OF positions in order to offset the offensive downgrade at shortstop.

b_a_p: If the vast majority of Phillies' moves aren't driven by Beerleaguer chatter, then clout's life has no meaning. And that would be tragic.

Somehow I can't see Rollins accepting a trade to L.A. I mean I'd love to be pleasantly surprised & all, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

JW- and I'm glad they're trying to be creative, if the end game here is to move salary to re-sign Hamels.

If they have to move salary, Rollins is one of the guys that's moveable. You have a theoretical replacement in Galvis that would be a defensive upgrade and save you $10 million each of the next two years in salary. The question is if you think the difference between Galvis and Rollins in '12 and '13 offensively is worth $10 million, especially if some of that money will be used in fitting in Hamels and adding in another area.

Personally, if they're going to move someone in a salary dump, I would rather it be Pence, for a couple of reasons. One is I don't want him here longterm. Two, you're saving more money next year because he's commanding $15 million in arbitration. Three, you have to put Brown somewhere in 2013, and the difference between Pence and Brown is almost assuredly not $15 million. And four, I would think you could get a lot more for Pence, especially considering the caveat in trading Rollins would be someone else taking on his salary.

But, Rollins is an option. I just never thought they'd even consider it.

"Weaknesses that he created and were created by the CBA and the compensation changes. It doesn't mean he will be unable to trade Hamels but rather that he might not get as much for him as he could've a year or two ago."

Well, I'm glad to see you agree at least that he created some of the weaknessess. And by doing so we're are in a position of not playing in the post-season this year.

You see, I'm mis-understood when it comes to my poinions on him. He's not a bad GM. He done a lot of good things. And part of what he did is dictated to him by the FO. My main problem with him was that, there was no way he could replace Howard with whom he got. Two years for Conreras and the Qualls signings were questiionable at best. And Thome too. Papelbon's money could have been spent more wisely elsewhere. I'm glad Pap is there. But with only 19 saves (not entirely his fault), a less expensive closer might have a similar number of saves.

Signing Polly for 3 years and not signing Lee the first time has cost him now. Doc would have been here anyway. It's not about what I wanted. It was about what was best for the team.

Willingham signed for what? 3 million. Take away those 3 and maybe we're not 14 games out right now. He has to think on that.

They lead the league in attendance the last 2 years. And while attendence is slightly down this year, what kind of meesage does it send to we phans not putting a winning team on the field with this payroll. Now he has to blow it up and start all over? Not an enviable postion to be in.

I don't think the Phils will consider moving Rollins. Pence should be on the front burner, though. REal value there. Does Victorino's value go up with Votto going down or, do the Reds fold and he goes to Pittsburgh for nothing?

Freddy Galvis at short will make Larry Bowa look like a good hitter. I know he has some doubles but, his swing left handed often looks like me switch hitting in whiffle ball.

If this doesn't resemble the beginning of a fire sale - I don't know what does..

Galvis was still poor offensively, is coming off a pretty severe injury, and his ability to show as much power is in doubt (given the PED suspension).

Galvis also isn't everything he is cracked up to be. If he was the 2nd coming of Ozzie Smith or Mark Belanger, then you could live with this crummy offensive. He's not. Good defender but not elite. Basically his upside is Brendan Ryan with slightly less defensive ability.

If they want to contend next year, they need JRoll at SS because Galvis/Mini-Mart are a huge dropoff.

Trading JRoll also would be a knock on Amaro and basically a concession that he made a poor move in resigning him. Argue about the possibility of the 4th year vesting but resigning JRoll wasn't a bad move by Amaro. He's still on pace to put up a 3-4 WAR season and give the Phils solid value.

***I know he has some doubles but, his swing left handed often looks like me switch hitting in whiffle ball.***

The ironic thing was that he was actually a pretty good hitter LH until he took some hitting lessons from Shane in Spring Training.

~not serious~

Rollins has actually had a pretty solid season and has shown himself to still be a valuable player.

He shouldnt be hitting at the top of the order but that an issue with UC, not Jimmy. Alot of teams would love to have a player of Jimmy's caliber at SS hitting in the bottom 3rd of their lineup.

"Offensively, I dont see Galvis as the answer at SS and I doubt the FO does either."

Ruben Amaro on Galvis, who replaced Chase Utley: "I don't know where we'd be without him."

Additionally, Ruben Amaro on Michael Martinez: "We like his versatility."

Miss whiffle ball games under parking lot lights during seasons like this.

Jose Bautista also injured tonight. Wrist or something. Looked pretty bad.

Two facts that can't ignored re: Phils at trade deadline
1) Amaro says the Phillies want to compete in 2013 and so on (means no salary dumps for players who are under for contract next year)
2) Hamels wants to experience free agency (unless they offer 150m, he's going to listen to other teams).

Argue against those points if you want, but you'll be wasting your time.

"Alot of teams would love to have a player of Jimmy's caliber at SS hitting in the bottom 3rd of their lineup."

Including the Phillies. Too bad they won't bat him there.

Role I want like to see Galvis take next year is as the utility infielder because they are going to need someone to spell Utley (even if is even on the field) on a semi-regular basis. Even JRoll isn't a guy who should be starting quite this much.

JRoll is quietly on a pace to play 157 games this year and start more games than any time since '07 when he played in all 162 games. 6 years is a lifetime in baseball.

Where can you find a snapshot of the Dodgers farm system? Aside from slogging though Baseball America's top 50 -- the sole Dodger being #49, Zach Lee, rhp, (not a Phillie to be found!!)) -- I'm really puzzled what the Dodgers might have that is a Phils' "must have".

What's really strange is that Galvis is a huge suspect at this point with the back injury, and they only thing scarcer than SS prospects are 3rd base prospects (sigh). What would induce the Phils to part with Jimmy "Cornerstone of the Old Guard" Rollins?

Strangest trade rumor yet... unless there's multiple teams involved.

Well, I'm glad to see you agree at least that he created some of the weaknessess. And by doing so we're are in a position of not playing in the post-season this year.


Don't put what I said in the same area as what you said. I don't think the offense is the problem this year- you do. If he signed Willingham then maybe we'd only be 10 games out...Big deal. I do think too that the plan to cover left and first was doing fine until Nix got hurt. That screwed a lot of things up cause it threw the platoon into flux. Also, I don't think anybody thought Mayberry would be this bad. I don't think anyone thought he would do what he did the second half of last year but he wasn't even able to give you 75% of that.

What I meant by created problems is that he went out and resigned Lee and set a contract number that he needs to at least meet to resign Hamels..

***Jose Bautista also injured tonight. Wrist or something. Looked pretty bad.***

Its getting to the point where I actually feel bad I drafted guys this year in FBB. Pretty much every guy I picked in the top rounds has suffered a major injury so far.

Berry just stole 2nd and 3rd. Tigers announcers: "What a weapon he is."

Where did all the die hards since 2007 go?

Jimmy's tweet last night: "Everytime we go to Cali I fell like I'm home....even though us Nor Cal peeps think SoCal should be a different state, lol! All Cali love tho"

I'd bet he would ok a trade to the Dodgers and it's new ownership group.

The Dodgers system is about as strong as ours.

Even if you combined both our systems, it'd still be in the bottom 3rd. They have zero position players worth looking at, some decent but not great pitching and that's about it. They have nothing even close to contributing at the MLB level.

Why would we trade with them, then?

I thought Galvis' defense was terrific.

Thanks, NEPP. Very, very strange, that Rollins to the Dodgers thing. Regardless, Jimmy's tweets sound as if he's lookin' forward to something.

JRoll ALWAYS has been a better hitter after the ASB. Think he has only 2 seasons in his 12 as a regular where he didn't post better splits after the ASB.

Pre-ASB: .264/.320/.411 (.731 OPS)
Post-ASB: .281/.339/.457 (.796 OPS)

Last three years his OPS has been .700 Pre-ASB total and .742 after it. Almost always good for at least a 40-50 basis bump after the ASB.

JRoll was at .715 OPS this year at the ASB. If he ends up at .750-.760 OPS, it will be his highest since '08 and he will have had a really solid year for them.

JRoll batting leadoff this year:

.273/.331/.458 (.789 OPS) in 312 PAs with 8 HRs and 10 SB/4 CS.

Average NL team OBP in the leadoff spot this year - .318. Prototypical leadoff hitters were always kind of in limited supply and today is no different. JRoll has been just fine out of the leadoff spot.

On a team with seemingly 99 problems, JRoll in the leadoff spot ain't one.

Never thought I would see the day when MG, who rips Rollins regularly, would outright dismiss trading him, while I actually justify the thinking behind looking to trade him.

***On a team with seemingly 99 problems, JRoll in the leadoff spot ain't one. ***

Agreed but he'd look a lot better as a 6/7 hitter. Our problem is our lineup is so ridiculously thin, he's a legit option to leadoff...since apparently Pierre isn't allowed to do so.

Speaking of ravines:

Utley (33)/Howard (32) vs. Ethier (30)/Kemp (27).

Gap between these two sets of players is approaching chasm-size. There is nothing good about getting old but especially not in baseball.

With strict PED testing, the days of a lot of players magically putting up great numbers in their mid/late 30s is going to go back to be more of a rarity.

Pirates lineup is adequate with Barmes a tshort because McMonster is playing center. Rollins or Pierre leading off is only as good as the guys hitting 2-4.

Of course, that might have more to do with brutally bad injures to both Utley & Howard...Yes, I know older guys are more likely to get injured but Utley's condition is pretty rare and even Howard's achilles injury is pretty unusual in baseball.

"Somehow I can't see Rollins accepting a trade to L.A. I mean I'd love to be pleasantly surprised & all, but I'm not going to hold my breath. "

Not sure I understand this thinking. LA is one of few places I can see Rollins wanting to go. Big market, team on the way up, etc.

"Bring back grassie" is hardly getting upset. Anyone who wants the phillies to contend in 2013 should want jroll at ss, all the ppl who whine about his pop ups and lead off hitting care to ignore the state of MLB shortstops right now. After a brutal start and a current slump, he's still 4th in war in baseball. What are ppl advocating we get in exchange?

Iceman - When do I rip JRoll regularly? I thought it was ridiculous to bury him in early May and that his numbers would certainly pick up later in the season. Always been a guy who hits his best in Jul/Aug/Sept for whatever stupid/quirky/odd reason.


Look at those stats. Phils aren't getting bad production out of the #1.

Where the Phils' offense has dragged has been the #3 and #6 spots. Pence/Vic have been mediocre in the #3 spot and #6 has been a wasteland of production due to Wigginton/Mayberry/Polanco getting most of the ABs there.

If Blanton gives up a HR tonight, it will be his 11th consecutive start giving up a HR and will tie Randy Wolf.

Get to watch him pitch on Sunday too. Already the 3rd Blanton start I have seen this year. Joy.

Speaking of ravines:

Utley (33)/Howard (32) vs. Ethier (30)/Kemp (27).

Gap between these two sets of players is approaching chasm-size. There is nothing good about getting old but especially not in baseball.

With strict PED testing, the days of a lot of players magically putting up great numbers in their mid/late 30s is going to go back to be more of a rarity.


Hello Apples. Have you met oranges?

Berry singles in an insurance run. What do the Tigers want for him?

Berry singles in an insurance run. What are the Tigers asking for him?

MG, you're right. I made up in my head where you call him a singles hitter that has lost a considerable amount in the field. I must have dreamt that one up.

lorecore is right about how people that rip him have a severe lack of perspective when it comes to production at SS. People wanted to replace him with Valdez, Paul Janish, Clint Barmes. These were serious suggestions. It's probably a matter of him being around too long and some people are just sick of him.

Still, if someone wants to take his salary and actually give you something in return, if it's in the interest of adding in other areas- and only in that interest- then yeah, it's an option you should keep on the table as a last resort.

Apologies for double post. But QB looks like a big upgrade over our current left field offerings.

hey officer. there's some creepy guy in a fake victorian mustache hanging out in the window of the kids playhouse.

This is the kind of game the 2012 Phillies lose every time. For one thing, I can't remember the last time they won a series against a good team. For two, they've won 2 straight (against a terrible team), creating the illusion that maybe they're about to go on a little run. Pretty much every time that has happened over the last 2 months, they've immediately responded with an absolutely hideous loss, followed thereafter by about three additional losses.

"Apologies for double post. But QB looks like a big upgrade over our current left field offerings."

Please. Didn't we learn from the John Mayberry experience that thousands of ABs worth of minor league data are of far more predictive value than a nice stretch of 200 ABs at the major league level? Berry is a soon-to-turn 28-year old career minor leaguer with a career OPS below .700. He's had a nice little start to his major league career, but he wouldn't even be an upgrade over Juan Pierre.

Galvis would hit a double here...

I said he lost a step in the field and I did think he was a singles hitter at this point with moderate HR power 12-15 HR.

He's on pace to hit 38 doubles and 9 triples. Hasn't had that many triples since '08 and that many doubles since '09. One of the things that made him such a dynamic player was his ability to generate doubles/triples in his prime.

Didn't think he had another year like that left in his legs. Not after a couple of consecutive seasons where he has been plagued by numerous leg injuries especially with his calf muscles.

Crushing DP there by Utley.

Last dead horse point:

JRoll is on pace to hit 61 XBHs this year. He's done that once since '07 ('09 when he had 69 XBHs).

RE: Howard/Utley vs Ethier/Kemp.
Remember the 08 and 09 NLCS? It's how life works. Our guys had their prime years and now these 2 are. You can't be all butt hurt every time a team has a better player than the Phillies.

All the Rollins love makes me think that he will of course go 0-5 tonight with 5 SO and/or suffer a major injury in the near future.

MG- a month ago you thought this, but now 30 days later you not only think you were wrong, but think he projects as this kind of player going forward?

I am honestly just asking what changed your mind so drastically here. This is all about him the next two years. A month ago you declared him a pop gun hitter. Are you saying you were wrong? Is he worth 10$ million more than Galvis the next two seasons?

I'd still rather trade Pence. Like others I think his skills will drop off a cliff sometime soon. He is not a long time Phillie either. Not sure who would want him but I'd rather get a stud 3B prospect for him, have Vic for $12M, with Brown in RF (not CF), and keep Hamels.

Trade Pierre for best value. I'd love to get Stubbs and maybe the arbitration thing might just let it happen.
Trade Polanco for some Jason Donald type (Backup) INF prospect or low upside SP.
I'd almost rather keep Fontenot because I never want to see Martinez again, but if he can get you a prospect fine.
Blanton might have some value also. I'd certainly deal him for best possible prospect.

Bullpens are easy to rebuild. Releivers are fickle anyway.
I think the OF can be rebuilt.
Key is getting good 2B backup and stud 3B (somehow).

Drew Stubbs has Gold Glove potential and good speed. He has turned out to be exactly what scouts projected when he was in the minors: A quality defensive CF with good power and speed, an enormous K rate and low OB.

If you've got a team with a relatively low K rate and decent OB and needed some OF defense, he'd be a good addition.

Unfortunately, the Phillies are a team with a high K rate, bad OB and good defense in CF.

2012 WAR:

Galvis: 0.5
Rollins: 2.5

So far, this year, he's been worth about $9 million more than Galvis...and Rollins will probably end up around 3.5 WAR on the year.

***A quality defensive CF with good power and speed, an enormous K rate and low OB.***

How is it that the Phillies did not draft Stubbs?

Iceman: Rollins is to MG what Howard, Polanco and KK are to Jack. Emotional, blind hatred, unalloyed by facts.

"Crushing DP there by Utley."

Our #5 hitter is batting .356.

Clout: You here for the whole game tonight? I'm ready to go.

That sort of warning track power is rare. That's what gets you $25 million a year or more on the open market.

Ah, man! I thought Howard had that.

That ball is probably gone if he was 100%.

Iceman - I said that about JRoll in May. I he $10M better the next 2 years? Probably That's a tough call especially from a health perspective.

If Galvis was healthy right now and had an OPS of .620-.630, I would feel a lot differently but he has a lot of clouds hanging over his head moving forward to the PED suspension & back injury.

Take away his surprising power numbers, you had a sub .600 OPS guy and probably someone closer to .550-.570 OPS. Too many outs to give up on this offense as currently constituted. If this was the offense '07-'09, I would feel differently because you would be able to hide such an offensive underachiever.

Howard has warning track power now? Great.

Franzke needs to stop calling almost homeruns with such fervor.

If Howard is worth $25 million a year, Chooch is worth like $80 million.

***I thought Howard had that.***

The problem, I think, is that he likely did get all of it.

It just didnt go out like it would have in other years.

I continue to wonder why anyone would ever throw a strike to Hunter Pence.

that fastball wasn't high or anything.

Way to make him work for it, Pence.

Juan gets it done!
Pence still stinks!

This offense is the Juan Pierre and Carlos Ruiz show.

I bet no one predicted that going into the season.

When Juan Pierre is your most clutch hitter, you have a problem.

I can't help but like Pierre since he keeps hitting.

Actually, Pierre has a pretty likable personality, too.

I didn't really expect Pierre to be getting RBIs.

Our #1-#2 hitters stringing together some nice hits. Way to start the game off.

Oh wait, this is bizarro Cholly world? It's our #5 and #7 hitters? OK.

My contention about JRoll not being the 'face of the franchise' or that popular of a player is another matter from not liking him.

I always felt with the exception of '07 that he always had his share of detractors here for various reasons on and off-the field including his race.

Man, I'm really gonna miss watching Polanco weakly ground out next season.

Oh, what's that? We have an option to bring him back? Thank the Lord.

race is why so many people hate Carlos Ruiz...

Jack, can you please try to not be a parody of yourself when it comes
To Howard and his contract?

Fun run. Our career .750 OPS catcher, now OPSing at 1.000, popped his typical 2B. Then the much-loved RF whiffs on a pitch 2 feet over his head. Then the much-hated LF (the #7 hitter with the .318 BA) drives in our catcher.

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