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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

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I'm trying not to get too excited after 4 wins in a row. I still think the right move is to sell and build for 2013.

That being said, there is a tiny spark of hope for a meteoric second half rise.

Lee with a losing record against the reigning Cy Young Award winner using reverse BL logic definitely points to an extension of the current winning streak.

With last night's win, the Phils are .500 on the road. Why are they such dogs at home?

The good news is that Kershaw has yet to record a win against the Phillies in his career, so there's that.

Lake Fred, it's really hard to fathom, right? They've fallen hard for a lot of reasons, but the drop in home record has to be unprecedented.

Kershaw @ home vs a last place team at the end of a west coast road trip is -120.

That screams super value on a Dodgers bet. Makes me think they are trying to pull in $$ on the Dodgers while they are actually in midst of a long cold streak over the past month.

As Mikeymiss would say....that line is telling me something.

Mikey Miss is a tool.

Lee needs to step up today. No doubt about it. Earn your keep.

Lake Fred: in years past you'd be correct. But with the 2012 Phillies, everything in this game points to a loss.

Every time these guys have given us even the slightest reason to believe, they go out and get punked. The only question is how it's going to happen.

I actually like their chances of scrapping a few runs against Kershaw and I think Lee will pitch well (he likes pitching in LA). I'm feeling a blown bullpen lead today. It's high time they remind us how much they suck.

"

awh/lorecore: what worries me, other than Amaro's poor (albeit small) track record of evaluating young talent in a trade, is the fact that he is reportedly 'lining up' things so it can all be done quickly.

So basically what this leads me to believe is that he's gonna wait until the last minute to sell, without the ability to negotiate with multiple teams for a few weeks. Basically, a repeat of what he did with the Lee trade.

I will say that I think the fact that they are taking so long to construct this offer to Hamels is fishy. It can't possibly be taking them this long to decide. I think they are trying to line something else up (a salary move) to be able to offer him what they know will get it done.

Posted by: Iceman | Wednesday, July 18, 2012 at 02:17 PM"


Iceman, your worry about the talent evaluation is legit. The rest of your worry is off base. By "lining things up" Amaro IS negotiating with other teams - multiple teams.

Team A: "What will you give me for Hamels?"
Team B: "What will you give me for Hamels?"
Team C: "What will you give me for Hamels?"

Just because he waits until the last minute to pull the trigger on a deal doesn't mean he isn't having protracted conversations back-and-forth with multiple teams who might have interest in some of the Phillies' players.

Waiting until the last minute afford him the luxury of seeing where this team is at the end of the month.

The only negative is that by waiting he might get less in return: I.e., if Hamels were moved to the Red Sox today, he could potentially make 2 - 3 more starts by the end of the month. For a team 3-1/2 games out of the WC, that might make the difference as to whether they make the playoffs or not, and there is additional value in getting him sooner.

(Caveat: I am not sayingthe Red Sox are interested in Hamels, just using them as an example.)

LF, the only explanation I have for the Phils' home record is "freak anamoly random event".

"Lee with a losing record against the reigning Cy Young Award winner using reverse BL logic definitely points to an extension of the current winning streak."

It took a few years for it to happen, but the BL Reverse Jinx has caught onto the fact that, when all signs logically point to a loss, fans take that as a sign of certain victory. And, if you think victory is certain, that means it's a loss.

Need Lee at absolute Full Tilt. Not going to get more than 3 today against Kershaw. More likely they have 1-2 chances to get to him and need to take advantage.

Top Rangers scout in attendance for Phils-Dodgers (Lee vs. Kershaw) today. Interesting. (salisbury tweet)

I said it the other day- the Rangers do need outfield help because Cruz isn't getting it done this year and they have a real possibility of not having Josh Hamilton next season.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if they are scouting Victorino or Pence to come and play right for them.

Victorino for Olt! Get it done Rube!

awh- you're right that in most cases, it doesn't necessarily mean he isn't having drawn out negotiations with other teams.

My memory, however, is tainted by the haste of the Lee trade. When Amaro can show that he can walk and chew gum at the same time (negotiate with Hamels while also pushing other teams' interest), I'll believe it.

Nice inning for Lee.

TTI- the ideal scenario is getting Olt for Pence. Won't happen for Vic.

Honestly, I'm not sure how realistic it would be to get a guy like Olt for Pence. Anyone with a better perspective on these things think that is fair?

I would think Olt is too high price for just Pence, maybe Hamels + Vic for Olt + others?

Is there any chance of Utley being traded to an AL team to DH?

I am going to hit for the cycle so they trade for me. See ya beyatchez.

Good quote, JW: "The Phillies have begun the slow and arduous task of becoming relevant again."

Come on Mayberry, you could have tried harder to catch that!

Inspiring effort there from Mayberry. Jesus.

Ice - The Good Phight has an article on the exact thing you are talking about right now. Basically saying that if the Phils hold onto Victorino and offer him a qualifying offer after the season, and he rejects it, they would get a supplemental pick. Olt was a supplemental pick so the asking price for Victorino could be Olt. Not saying they should get Olt for Victorino but the comparison is there. Teams just have to figure out how much that qualifying offer is worth to them.

Absolutely horrendous defense there by Mayberry. You have to either get to a spot and stop coasting or if you keep coasting find the wall. He did neither and he could've easily reached up and caught that thing.

This game feels over.

Sobering thought of the day. Every team in the AL... EVERY SINGLE TEAM is closer to the 2nd wildcard than the Phils are in the NL...

I don't believe any HR ball necessarily should have been caught, but that was a really lousy play on Mayberry's part. He has had an unabashedly terrible year.

Wasn't there a period last year when the Braves matched us win for win? If we won 5 in a row, so did they. If they lost, so did we. I bring it up because as JW points out, not only do the Phillies have to win like crazy, but other teams have to lose.

He's right that winning divisional games will help immensely. That's always a good plan.

But as others have pointed out, the task of competing for the postseason at this point is made all the more difficult because it is not entirely a matter of the Phillies controlling their own destiny, as they like to say.

I'd put down money at like 8 to 1 that we get no hit today.

Mayberry, Cliff is gonna let you have it in the dugout. Or SeƱor Victorino is gonna be pissed.

Scully can't believe Mayberry didn't jump. How close was it?

Polanco is no more of a threat than our pitchers at the plate these days. I think Cole Hamels is better, in fact. Last I checked, Hamels had a better BA than several of his position player teammates.

Moving Hamels is an absolute necessity if they cannot sign him. The new rules only provide 1 compensatory draft pick. Trading for multiple players who are first round talent is a total no -brainer.

Boy wouldn't it have been nice to see Lee come out throwing shoutout innings? Oh well. The most surprising thing of that inning is that it wasn't Hairston with the HR.

If there is a skill to reaching base via error, then Mayberry can be said to possess one offensive skill.

There is a replay of the homer on MLB.com Gameday. Not as easy of a play as some made it seem, but Mayberry obviously put no effort into it.

Polly now 4 for 33 in July.

It's hard to argue against Rollins' overall numbers this year, which are right on par with last season's. I am, however, troubled by the absolutely staggering increase in his strikeout totals, and what it portends for his future performance.

I'm wrong - Hamels is at .263, Polly at .260, no real difference. With Rollins at .262.

Vic is only .249
Wiggy .243
Mayberry .233
Utley .224
Howard .143

(Who asked if we could trade Utley to be a DH in the AL? I think he needs better numbers to show he can still be effective at the plate, with his knees, before someone would look at him as a DH candidate.)

I hope Mayberry just didn't have good awareness to where he was on that HR, cause he definitely could and should have jumped for it.

I disagree with everyone who has commented on the Rivera HR. I can't fault Mayberry at all for not catching it. I can't believe I'm going to agree with Wheels, but here it goes. He was "drifting" after the ball because it kept carrying. Had he "gone to the spot" where he thought the ball was going to come down, he would have been 10 feet in front of the track. He tracked the ball and ran out of room. Gosh.

We're really nitpicking today, aren't we. Mayberry sucks, he didn't leap up and rob Rivera of a HR. Come on, guys and gals.

Cyclic- if he was actually standing at the wall, he could have bunny-hopped and caught it. He's 6'7". He loafed over there. Absolutely should have gotten it.

Ballllllz balllllz penissss pennnnissss

Alright steal a bag here and let's create a run.

He should have at least damn well tried for it. Mayberry has no clue.

Off the replay, I agree with TK and RBill-- seemed like he was unaware of the wall and just ran out of room.

Just watched the video of the Rivera home run. Man there was no urgency on the part of Mayberry. Couldn't he feel the track under him to realize hey this ball might be going out?

Righthanded Victorino.

Nice steal there....get him in.

I don't think he was really loafing. I just think he got confused about where exactly he was or whether the ball was catchable. It wasn't an exemplary display of defensive awareness, but I doubt very seriously that it would have turned out differently if he had jumped.

can we get a tally on some Reached on Error stats? Mayberry has to have the highest % Times on Base by ROE. His putrid OBP and high tally of ROE might be reaching all time levels.

I don't get how you can be confused...you feel the track under you and you better be ready for some wall contact.

Atta boy Chooch...fine work Shane Einstein. Get dirty you dope.

RH Vic and Ruiz is a dangerous combo.

That was bizarre.

CHORCH

Speaking of Mayberry's skills, he's really good at getting down 0-2

Great job, Chooch. Are we still waiting for him to cool off?

@Five-4-One
Polly has been dreadful hitting for the past 2 seasons... I realize he's been hurt and while his glove is surely still a good one, I can't wait to see a new 3B next season.

I am listening on radio but I assume Polly's ball was a lazy hump back liner to 2nd?

just saw the replay of the Mayberry weak sauce effort on the home run. he has absolutely NO wall presence, and no confidence anywhere near the wall. unacceptable.

The only thing missing from Mayberry's "attempt" on the Rivera HR was a tip of the cap to Mr. Bobby Abreu in the opposing dugout.

seattle, I wouldn't say dreadful. The problem is that he gives you next to nothing except singles and situational awareness. Paying way too much for that at the corner spot.

I don't necessarily think next years 3B will be any better. But i sure wouldn't 5.5M for this.

He absolutely loafed over there. Doesn't matter if it was because he was being lazy or because he misjudged it. He coasted.

an OPS+ of 86 in 2011 and 72 this season is pretty dreadful for a corner infield bat...

Did they have good ol Murph mosey on over to the Rangers scout to ask how he liked that Victorino baserunning exhibition?

At first I was panicky about the Phillies picking up Polanco's option. Now I'm developing a sense of sheer terror that r00b will convince himself Martinez is the answer in '13.

But yes, as far as this month goes, absolutely dreadful. Slow bat. If he chokes up anymore and his swing gets any shorter, he might as well bring up one of those miniature bats from bat giveaway night.

Hahaha GTown that's great. He'll just platoon Polly and Mini Mart. Problem solved.

RBIll: The coasting thing- fine. But at some point you have to realize you are getting close to the wall...especially when you step onto the warning track. It was horrible field awareness by Mayberry. That isn't nitpicking- it's fact.

you feel the track under you and you better be ready for some wall contact.

If you don't think the ball is going to get to the wall, let alone over it, why would you anticipate contact with the wall and/or the need to jump for it? Off the bat, that looked like a moderately deep fly ball with no chance of getting to the track. He made an attempt to jump after realizing that ball was carrying over the wall.

Think about what we're arguing here. We're mad because he didn't rob someone of a HR. That seems weird to me.

I can't wait to see a new 3B next season.

Posted by: seattlephan | Wednesday, July 18, 2012 at 03:57 PM

As others have said, would we call Mini Mart "new"?

28 pitches, 5 balls

wow

Can anyone remember the last time Pigington contributed anything more than out of control swings and misses and lazy fly balls to to the offensive cause? Help me here.

"Now I'm developing a sense of sheer terror that r00b will convince himself Martinez is the answer in '13."

An interesting question to wrap one's mind around would be: Who'd you rather have at 3rd base next year -- Polanco at $4.5M or Michael Martinez at $500,000?

RB, we'll agree to disagree on the Mayberry play.

Anybody that hits .277 over 470 ABs, I refuse to call dreadful. And I think the whole power at the corners thing is a little over exaggerated when your are talking about 3B. Hardly anyone even has a decent 3B; not a single 3B in the NL had over 30 HR's last year. Only 2 had over 20.

But again, he doesn't really walk much anymore, he barely scratches over a .300 OBP and doesn't really ever hit a double anymore. (He does have 14 Dbls this year, but I can't remember the last time he hit one. Weird).

Pigington. Hahahaha.

He had that single and game tying run in the Rockies comeback game before the break.

Joe D: Not even. Martinez is a switch hitter. r00b loves that nonsense, even if the player in question can't hit for sh*t from either side. He'll buy off Polanco for $1 million, throw $750K at Martinez & celebrate his perceived genius by tossing off over a pic of the day he signed Halladay. Two weeks into April '13 we'll be wishing Boy Blunder had paid Polanco $6 million to suck for another season.

In an aggravating season Polanco's AB are just another item on the list. I can't fault someone for exaggerating on their disdain for him this season.

i am not mad at mayberry for not robbing someone of a HR. rather i am mad at mayberry for not TRYING to prevent the HR.

You mean 5.5 on Polly? I believe thats the option amount.

B_A_P, what a GD depressing freaking question. Damn you, damn you to hell!

Lee seems pretty locked in today.

Yeah it's not like I thought Mayberry would absolutely catch that ball but I'd like for him to at least look like has a clue on that ball. He wouldn't be the first outfielder to have a ball drift on him and actually leap for it at the wall.

"Anybody that hits .277 over 470 ABs, I refuse to call dreadful."

How about .259 over 300 ABs, with hardly any walks and a slugging percentage of .332?

phillesh: Yer damn skippy!

Thanks, Ice. Don't know how I could have forgotten about that.

I'll take Jeff Keppinger for 2M Alex.

/Mayberry-HR discussion

Make that .258 over 301 ABs.

Speaking for the reality-based community, Mini-Mart has a zero percent chance of being the everyday 3B if Polanco is kicked to the curb. Fontenot is the worst-case scenario, and he's got an option for next season.

Fivel is on the roster while Mini toils in AAA. That rank isn't going to change.

/Mayberry-HR discussion

Posted by: Cyclic

I'm down.

B_A_P, I said I refused to call 2011 dreadful.

A .591 OPS is dreadful.

Polanco hit another screamer there?

541: It is $5.5M. But $4.5M represents the true cost of exercising the option since, if they decline it, there's a $1M buyout.

Nows the time for a May Berry Blast!

Iceman: While what you say makes sense, would the "reality-based community" ever have predicted Martinez would get as much playing time as he has?

BAP, another way to put it is whoever plays 3B next year is automatically 1M more expensive.

I didn't realize you were applyng the buyout. I've been applying it to the perspective 3B, rather than discounting Polanco's salary.

Hairston 0-2?

That can't be right. I thought Phillies pitching wasn't allowed to get Hairston brothers out.

541: Same result, different accounting method.

Either way, the point is: using one of the Phillies' presently available Polanco alternatives next year would save the Phillies $4.5M minus the cost of that player's salary. Even if that alternative is worse than Polanco, the difference would have to be pretty massive to offset the $3 to $3.5M difference in salary. That money could probably buy you two relievers with a shot of being competent.

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