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Monday, July 23, 2012

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From last thread:

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
Phillies may not know who will play 3B in 2013, but it cannot possibly be worse than 2012. Their .606 OPS from 3B is last in NL by far.


Someone (I already forgot who) said the Phillies might just stick MiniMart there.

If they do, they aren't going to improve production, so they'd better be happy with last place OPS again - without even Polly's defense as a bright spot.

Randy Wolf is an appropriate throwback to the times right now. We're forced to remember the days when he was a cornerstone in some rather dreadful rotations. I never hated him but I can't say I miss him either. He was ok.

I was actually thinking about that today though if he winds up back in a Phillies uniform next year. From what I recall, the two sides didn't part all that amicably. Didn't they make him a nice offer after '07 and he went to San Diego for less? I seem to remember Gillick or Amaro publicly sneering at him a bit.

Jesus Christ man, don't even joke about Mini Mart being the Opening Day 3B in 2013! Beerleaguer will riot!

Simply for the sake of making a prediction: No major roster moves by this time next week. We are trying to decide if we are buyers or sellers.
From the Everly brothers: Dream,Dream,Dream,Dream

I like how optimistic JW is with the "living on the postseason fringes" thing...This team is so far out of the postseason race it's a joke. Would any other team be described as "on the fringe of the postseason" at 42-54?

Is Charlie just trying not to be completely negative? I get that impression:

Matt Gelb
Charlie on Polanco, hitting .184 since June 4 with a bad back: "Here lately, every now and then when he hits a ball hard, it seems like somebody catches it. He's always having to try to beat something out. He hasn't been getting a lot of hits. At times, he still puts the fat part of the bat on the ball. At times, he's showed me his bat speed is OK."

Don't know if this was mentioned in the last thread (I can't bring myself to slog all the way through it) but the Braves have supposedly acquired Ryan Dempster. Combine that with the Ben Sheets signing and they suddenly have a completely revamped rotation.

Wolf always got overshadowed a bit by the Phils disastrous and pig-headed insistence to take JD Drew in the '97 draft many moons ago.

All considered, Wolf was a high draft choice and rated pitching prospect actually who worked out for the Phils. Didn't have a lot of them for a space of nearly 20 years.

Wolf had a terrible 2nd half in '03 (really hurt their playoff chances that year) & after that was never really a good starter for the Phils again due to various injury issues.

The whole notion of "living on the postseason fringes" is born of complete denial that this roster should ever be this far out of a pennant race. Yeah, it might be, by and large, many of the same names, but these guys aren't going to throw together any 9 or 10 game divisional win streaks, and pull it out in the last week of the season. If that's what anyone is holding out hope for, I'd kill for you level of optimism (and general level of ignorance wandering through life). Simply put, it would be among the greatest comebacks in MLB history and STILL lean on a brand new postseason entry to even consider it.

The saddest part of all is that even Amaro seems to subscribe to this possibility as if it's a predictable Disney movie. My biggest fear is that the Phils will actually finally sweep someone, in the Brewers this series, and keep that hope alive.

I get the "it ain't over til it's over/never say die" attitude. And it's been fun as hell to watch late inning comebacks, etc. over the last few years. But to think that this is that same team is an exercise in fate that even I can't quite comprehend.

Continuing the prospect discussion from last thread, Mike Newman at Fangraphs is impressed by Mitch Walding:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/philadelphia-phillies-third-base-prospect-mitch-walding-fangraphs-scouting-report-video/

Side note: Newman's tagline advertises his blog and Twitter feed about the South Atlantic ("Sally") League. When poring over the ruins of our civilization, I wonder what future folks will think of the fact that there was enough interest in the 10th or 11th most prestigious American baseball league to support both a blog and a Twitter feed devoted to it.

Tigers have acquired right-hander Anibal Sanchez and second baseman Omar Infante from the Marlins.

Tigers get Annibal Sanchez AND Omar Infante. Sanchez is a rental, but Infante is signed through next year. If he can still play 3rd base, he would actually have been a nice fit for the Phillies.

Wolf has made over $60M in his MLB career. It's a good thing to be a LH pitch-to-contact starter although his career comps are pretty favorable:

Ted Lilly (962)
Pat Hentgen (950)
Jason Schmidt (948)
Darryl Kile (947)
A.J. Burnett (946)
Mike Krukow (946)
Woody Williams (943)
Todd Stottlemyre (940)
Dan Petry (939)
Mike Boddicker (937)

Look, I offered Wolf 5 years at 38,000 per. It's not my fault the guy didn't want to stay with a winner.

Oh good, Italian heritage night tonight. I'm sure the Phanatic has some shenanigans planned that will have TBag rolling in the broadcast booth.

They should at least bring back Sal Fasano for this.

I am completely willing to give Wolf a wink and a nod deal for next year. I see him sliding right in the 3rd spot in the rotation at 3years/$18 a year.

I don't know how directly these things are related, as each trade is unique, but from a Hamels trade perspective, it's encouraging to see a top-50 prospect traded for Dempster and a top-25 traded for Sanchez/Infante.

Tigers have acquired right-hander Anibal Sanchez and second baseman Omar Infante from the Marlins.

Posted by: Jr. | Monday, July 23, 2012 at 05:55 PM

For Jacob Turner, who was their #1 rated prospect before this season, but has fallen pretty far since then. If he can straighten himself out that's a nice pickup for the Marlins.

Why isn't Rube working the phone lines like this? If a mediocre SP + a slightly above average 3B can bring back a team's best SP prospect it's time to trade off as many disposable pieces as possible.

Yeah MG, it's great to be me.

The room service here stinks.

"Why isn't Rube working the phone lines like this?"

Chris, haven't you heard? The Phils have an outside shot at this year's postseason.

Ichiro yankees business about to pick up...........

'Wolf Pack' was probably the best fan-supported group although I did like the 'Padilla's Flotilla' a lot too.

Worst had Ogea's Oranges but there were a couple of real crappy ones including JRoll's Bakery.

0.5% playoff chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

Hasn't been a worthwhile percentage in weeks. Literally 2nd week in June.

So no chance of Victorino to Yankees and Detroit just dealt a bunch of prospects away probably taking them out of the Hamels running. Let's make some moves soon RAJ!

Loved Padilla's Flotilla.

Hated Padilla.

I'm shocked - A utility infielder and a mediocre starter who is a pending free agent gets you the ~#20 best prospect in baseball plus a team's best catching prospect?

If we don't get a top prospect for Hamels than we screwed up.

I bet theres no way Detroit trades for Hamels now, and def not for Castellanos. Goddammit.

Polly's had a sore back since L.A. and just now seeing Ciccotti about it?

No way this guy's around next season, unless it's as a super-sub (and even then I'd posit that we could drop the "super" from that moniker).

Only thing I can see a move not being done due to the ALS event thrus.

Plus he's got cankles. Love it JW, good stuff there.

Mariners need to be contracted.

Also, Ryan Dempster, a pending free agent returns a top #50 prospect in Randall Delgado from Atlanta.

Cole Hamels better be getting better returns than this.

Corey Seidman: "Ichiro, since start of 2011: .268/.302/.342. Placido Polanco: .269/.322/.335"

Ouch.

Amaro needs to get moving. Trades need to be made. I simply cannot believe he's going to go through this deadline holding on to everyone.

If Victorino and Hamels are still here after the deadline without contract extensions, Amaro has simply been incompetent.

Guys, it's cool. Clout says that Polanco will get right back to his career averages any day now.

Polanco has a sore back now? Literally been physically breaking down since '10.

I don't care if he has great hands at 3B or is a solid defensive player. Amaro would be nuts at this point to bring him back next year except as a utility bench player.

Understand why Hamels is still here. Ditto Vic.

I have no idea what Amaro is waiting on with Pierre. He should have been gone already. Ditto Blanton.

Your deluding yourself. Look at the Ichiro trade and Dempster. Delgado is about the same as KK but younger. . For Victorino you may get a bag of balls and for Hamels maybe two mediocre minor leaguers! Good reason to not give up on Pence who has good stats, but is overpaid for contribution?

Everybody's still here because r00b wants Hamels re-signed, thereby signifying that he is content to repeat this season's mistakes in '13.

"Why isn't Rube working the phone lines like this?"

Chris, haven't you heard? The Phils have an outside shot at this year's postseason.

Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, July 23, 2012 at 06:04 PM

If RAJ is actually thinking like this then that he is guilty of gross incompetence. This team has no chance at the post-season whatsoever. I don't want to waste my evening researching this, but has there EVER been a team at least 12 games below .500 near the end of July that came back to make the postseason? I seriously doubt it's ever happened.

Who has more trade value, Mike Fontenot or Omar Infante?

If Sanchez/Infante gets you a team's #1 prospect and their top catching prospect, then Joe Blanton and Mike Fontenot should be able to get you at least a team's 3-4 best prospect.

Atlanta Phil: Delgado is 22 and has been rated as a top 50 prospect for the past two years. KK makes $4.5M next year.

Even if Delgado never pans out and ends up with worse numbers than KK(possible), their value isn't even in same realm.

Phils have folded since June 1st. Here is Papelbon's stats since then:

16 G, 18 1/3 IP, 2-3, 4.91 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 7 Saves, 3 BS

Ugly truth is that this bullpen has been cr@p for nearly 2 months now including Papelbon.

Chris in VT: I'm not trying to rub it in, man, but I won our friendly wager...both on my terms and yours.

Jacob Turner was just traded to the Marlins. He was one of the Tigers top 3 prospects and MLB.com ranks him at 15 in the top 100.

The key piece in the trade was Anabal Sanchez, a rental.

Your deluding yourself. Look at the Ichiro trade and Dempster. Delgado is about the same as KK but younger. . For Victorino you may get a bag of balls and for Hamels maybe two mediocre minor leaguers! Good reason to not give up on Pence who has good stats, but is overpaid for contribution?

Posted by: Atlanta Phil | Monday, July 23, 2012 at 06:38 PM

This is simply ridiculous. Delgoado is a power pitcher who sits around 93 and has quality breaking stuff but struggles to command it. KK is pretty much the polar opposite of this. Jacob Turner is a 21 year old potential #1 SP, rated the best prospect in the Tigers' system before the season and #29 overall by Keith Law. To get him plus another prospect for a guy who's roughly equivalent to Joe Blanton and a slightly above average 3B is a great return.

If this is the way the market is playing out, Rube should be able to bring in quite a haul for Hamels, a solid couple of prospects for Vic, and a decent haul for guys like Blanton/Polanco/Pierre/etc. In that case, it's time to start trading. Salvaging a halfway decent ending to 2012 is pointless; this team isn't going anywhere as currently constructed. Get to work re-tooling now and start planning for 2013.

Chris in VT: I'm not trying to rub it in, man, but I won our friendly wager...both on my terms and yours.

Jacob Turner was just traded to the Marlins. He was one of the Tigers top 3 prospects and MLB.com ranks him at 15 in the top 100.

The key piece in the trade was Anabal Sanchez, a rental.

Posted by: Will Schweitzer | Monday, July 23, 2012 at 06:48 PM

Um, no. Infante is under contract for 2013. If the trade was just for Sanchez, I'd concede immediately. But this wasn't just a trade for a rental. Sorry, not the terms we agreed to.

Anibal Sanchez is not a bad pickup. Suggests Detroit was aiming a little lower than Hamels, though. If Amaro 'stands pat', I'll be incredulous. I think he's waiting out the homestand and Cole Hamels.

Chris: I knew you'd try to play that card, but it won't fly. Infante was hardly the key element to the trade. He's little more than what Ben Francisco was in the Cliff Lee deal.

Besides, the Tigers sent more to Florida than Jacob Turner, so yeah bub...you were wrong. Just own up to it and move on.

Besides, if the Delgado for Dempster deal goes down, you'll have lost anyway.

Ichiro to yanks for 2prospects

At this rate we won't have any trading partners..

If this is gonna be that kind of party, I'ma stick my dick in the mash potatoes.

CiVT "To get him plus another prospect for a guy who's roughly equivalent to Joe Blanton and a slightly above average 3B is a great return."

Sanchez is a no. 3 guy, with stuff that could still see better days. He's not Joe Blanton.

So we lost Detroit and the Yankees as trading partners..

Keep procrastinating Amaro..

I want to keep Cole here. I wouldnt mind if we trade him this year, if we was assured that we would re-sign him. However, there's a chance another team could blow Hamels out of the water with a deal in the offseason. If no deal is made before the trade dead line, you have to trade him. Needs are a 3B, a top tier catching prospect, reliever and hopefully a top tier OF MLB ready OF'er. Of course i know we wont get that much of a hall but a combination thereof.

So Pierre (14-34 .412 vs Wolf) is sitting tonight and Mayberry (0-6) is starting in LF? Puzzling.

Chris: I knew you'd try to play that card, but it won't fly. Infante was hardly the key element to the trade. He's little more than what Ben Francisco was in the Cliff Lee deal.

Besides, the Tigers sent more to Florida than Jacob Turner, so yeah bub...you were wrong. Just own up to it and move on.

Besides, if the Delgado for Dempster deal goes down, you'll have lost anyway.

Posted by: Will Schweitzer | Monday, July 23, 2012 at 06:54 PM

Oh, I fully admit that I read the market wrong, but the Sanchez/Infante trade doesn't prove I lost our bet. First of all, the terms I offered were any top 25 prospects on Keith Law's midseason-updated prospect list. Turner (and Delgado) are nowhere near that.

Second, we agreed on any top 3 prospect FOR A RENTAL. Infante is worth 2.3 fWAR so far in 2012, Sanchez 2.4. If you're really claiming a couple months of Sanchez is more valuable to the Tigers than 1.5 years of Infante, then I don't see the point in continuing the discussion.

*haul

lorecore: A bit suprising how much more the Marlins got for Sanchez (a FA) and Infante (a league-average guy) than the Mariners got for Ichiro (also a FA.) The pitchers the Mariners got are fringe prospects with little upside.

Good to see that Utley/Howard (both have bad numbers against Wolf with Utley just 4-17 and Howard at 3-19) are back-to-back again too in the 3-4 spots with Chooch (6-13) and Pence (7-27 but 2 HRs) in the 5/6 spots.

There are times that Cholly's stubborn insistence on doing things a certain way on a daily basis borders on outright or ventures into stupidity.

CiVT "To get him plus another prospect for a guy who's roughly equivalent to Joe Blanton and a slightly above average 3B is a great return."

Sanchez is a no. 3 guy, with stuff that could still see better days. He's not Joe Blanton.

Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Monday, July 23, 2012 at 06:57 PM

Well, according to B-Ref, Blanton has been worth almost 2 WAR since '09, Sanchez has been worth -0.5 over the same time period...Sanchez has far more potential than Blanton, but to this point in his career the results don't reflect that.

Chris: Totally agree with your overall point on the Marlins trade except for your comapriuson of Sanchez to Blanton. Sanchez is way better and younger.

Wigginton is 10-30 vs Wolf and sitting tonight too.

No reason Pierre shouldn't be in LF tonight and if they wanted Mayberry or even Wigginton at 1B.

If the Phils really wanted to maximize their chances to win, they would have sat Howard tonight.

Again, Detroit sent Rob Brantly and Brian Flynn to Miami with Turner, so the scales are certainly balanced. Besides, you didn't make any conditions that other players couldn't be involved in the trade.

You set the conditions. A top 3 prospect on a team was traded. A rental was traded for him. All else are details that you didn't consider beforehand, so you can't claim them now. The time to add that caveat was two days ago. You lose.

Again, as soon as the Demster deal goes down, it doesn't matter anyway. You'll have lost twice.

Look man...I don't want to keep this going any longer than it has to. You had an opinion and it was a valid one. I had a different opinion. We made a friendly wager (no money or any nonsense payout). I won.

Rangers RHP Colby Lewis is headed for Tommy John surgery. If they weren't willing to deal Olt before, they might do it now.

MG: It's not puzzling, it's classic Charlie. Start a LH batter vs. a LH pitcher? Unthinkable! Plus, Mayberry's hot!

Don't worry, we still got the Pirates....if we cut our asking price.

Dave - Yup. Puzzling lineup that makes little sense on several accounts including the Phils best hitters once again in the 5-6 spots.

Bad situation now: either Ruben makes a quick move without a bunch of dealing and gets a bad result or he pretends they are not going to deal since we are still in it and of course, we never get anywhere near the playoffs.

"You set the conditions. A top 3 prospect on a team was traded. A rental was traded for him. All else are details that you didn't consider beforehand, so you can't claim them now. The time to add that caveat was two days ago. You lose."

Right...so as long as a player in the last year of his deal is included, any other assets in the trade don't matter? They don't have any bearing on the value of the return?So if Mike Trout and Vernon Wells are traded for Justin Upton, that means Upton was traded for a rental player? You do realize how dumb that is, right?

Look, I already admitted I was wrong. I don't know what else you want out of this, but when a rental player is traded ALONG WITH other assets, the other assets in the trade matter when it comes to evaluating the return. I don't know how you could argue otherwise.

Ichiro has a catchy name and not much else right now. will be interesting if he can bring the magic back for a couple months in NY. Would seem the Yanks wanted a vet OF, but didn't want to pay what it would take to get Vic. A decent gamble.

I bet Blanton & Vic go to Pitt.

MG: Charlie sees Utley as a #3 hitter, & Howard as a clean-up hitter. Nevermind how easy that makes it for the opposing manager, or the fact that Howard batting 4th means Howard leads off the 2nd inning. Again, classic Charlie.

***Also, Ryan Dempster, a pending free agent returns a top #50 prospect in Randall Delgado from Atlanta.***

I was told that the new compensation rules would prevent such trades.

Hmm...at that pricetag, Hamels should bring back Olt and a couple other solid pieces.

Supporting what Colonel Tom said:

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm
Colby Lewis is out for the yr according to the Rangers even more likely now that Olt and/or MPerez will be dealt for Hamels,Garza or Greinke

Don't worry. Amaro has a plan. He is holding his cards to play them at the last moment.

My bet is his demands are ridiculous right now even on secondary pieces, other GMs are moving on now that Amaro starting price is very high, and that Amaro is going to end up making at least one panic trade (Vic/Hamels) with a crappy return.

Don't need to be a Svengali to see that likely happening this coming weekend.

Acc. to the talking heads, Rangers might be more interested in Matt Garza, who's more than a rental.

I suspect that Rube will either wait too long to deal Hamels and get crap or he will make a panic trade shortly in which he still gets crap due to all the wheeling/dealing that he is watching right now.

Ok Chris, let's put it to rest. Either way, you seem like an alright guy, and I'm not about to spend the next 3 years on BL rehashing this debate every time we disagree.

You know...like defending the integrity of Contreras has somehow made me a "race baiter" and saying that Brown wasn't MLB-ready in 2010 made me Sir Alden.

@MG: Ironically, I didnt see your post when I just said essentially the same thing.

Pence can't field, Halladay's body temp is 106. Just another day at CBP.

Clout: Since the start of 2011, Ichiro has basically the same exact offensive stats as Placido Polanco. I think they were .269/.305/.342, or something around there. Just terrible.

It's not surprising he wasn't traded for much, especially since he's still owed a lot of money for this season.

So, Halladay looks sharp again.

Halladay at this point is like the old lawn mower I have. It has been well-maintained & cuts the lawn well. Just takes a while to warm up.

2 run deficit?

Game=Over

I still think Contreras is full of crap about his age.

Yeah, but an 0-2 deficit vs. a mediocre LHP is insurmountable.

Seattle sending $3M to NY with the player formerly known as Ichiro Suzuki.

Brewers were a great bet tonight at +195. Wolf has pitched really well in this park and junk-throwing LHP pitchers have given this lineup fits over the last few seasons especially with Utley/Howard back in there.

I love that some of the same people that take grave offense to clout supposedly taking arguments out of context turn around and do the same thing by making up that people have claimed this season is all based on 'bad luck.' No one has ever made that argument.

Believe it or not, there is some middle ground between "It's all over" (which is something that is actually being argued) for the core, and blaming everything that happened on luck and assuming it will go back to normal next year (never argued by anyone). But if you're a dolt, I guess it's tough to find middle ground between any two arguments.

MG/Gtown: you're bashing Charlie because Mayberry is 0-6 vs a lefty? C;mon dude, really? 6 freakin PA? Mayberry just hit two bombs the other day off a lefty and plays better D than Pierre. Thats more important than 6 PA from who knows how long ago.

Terrible call.

lorecore - Wolf is a soft-tossing LHP so I can see why Cholly wanted him in the lineup but Pierre just has really good numbers vs Wolf.

lorecore: And you're welcome to that opinion.

Also, these f*ckin' umpires don't have the first clue.

I dare someone to say that would have been a 2run HR

Nice. Screwed the Phils out of a tie game & everything. Thanks, blue.

Meatball that Utley was able to drive up and out with just his upper body.

2 run homer for Utley.

That's a HR.

Clout's schtick has been pretty much the same thing since I started reading BL.

1. Take a random player, give him a WWE-nickname akin to "The Savior" and pretend that every BL touts him as the answer to all problems.

2. Re-wording perfectly reasonable opinions to sound outrageous and not even slightly resembling what was said.

3. Defending Manuel and Amaro to anyone with the audacity to disagree with them on any level (using #2 as his method for doing so).

4. Romantic diatribes of the virtues of Kyle Kendrick, the likes of which qualify as evidence for a restraining order.

MLB did give Phils a ghost runner for Victorino, right?

The asspipe brigade needs to review this.

It's done, Will. I was wrong about what teams are willing to trade for rentals.

Getting back to the Phils, Rube has some valuable assets that could clearly bring back a decent return to jump start the "retooling" he likes to talk about. It's past time to make that happen.

And BB, from what I've read, Pittsburgh has definite interest in Vic, but won't move on him until the asking price comes down. Sounds like Rube is asking for a Taillon-type prospect, and there's zero chance the Pirates give someone like him up for a rental like Vic.

Back-to-back HRs! I take back my doubts about starting Howard (and to lesser extent, Utley). I was wrong, clearly.

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