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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Comments

THe return for Dempster was 3B Christian Villanueva (decent 3B prospect) and Single A+ SP Kyle Hendricks.

Possible post deadline deals: Blanton, Wiggy, Polly.

If they don't clear waivers - salary relief, if they clear maybe we can kick in cash and prospects to get a meaningful prospect.

We need injuries to other teams

Slocs - "kick in cash"

Apparently you haven't been watching the Phillies lately.

Sometimes news of these deals trickles in after the fact. It's possible that Blanton has already been traded.

Yeah, we have another good 30-45 min where deals will trickle in.

It boggles my mind that the Yankees got McGehee for Qualls.

Couldn't we have given them a crappy reliever for McGehee?

Lars Anderson to the Indians.

Post-deadline deals don't help me this Friday, when I'm sitting there watching Fat Joe serve up long balls to the Dbacks. Both times I've made it to games this season, Blanton has pitched. Even Kendrick would have been a nice change.

BAP - I have to think that one of the beat guys would have tweeted that he was pulled out of his bullpen had he actually been traded.

McGehee has been terrible the last 2 years. He's a younger Wigginton.

Typical Charlie - doesn't start D Brown. Isn't this the time to see what he has to offer.

I agree on McGehee...I'm just surprised they got anything at all for Qualls.

aksmith - re Worley. I'm not committing to an opinion on Worley's health or ceiling or likely abilties going forward. It would be a move made to trade from a position of strength in order to fill holes elsewhere. That idea is only strengthened if you think Worley has been pitching slightly over his head.

Bill: Exactly right. McGeehee is also a terrible defensive player and helps the Phils not at all.

Per Twitter Brown's flight was delayed which is why he is not starting. I was looking forward to seeing him.

Gah! Too ... much ... site activity!

Just scrolling through Pence's game log. Knew he'd had a rough month, but didn't realize how bad -- just one extra-base hit in all of July (83 AB). And that to go with a 217/278/253 line. Wow.

Sophist mentioned in the last thread about using Worley as the centerpiece as a deal for Headley.

I mentioned this a few weeks ago, because I think it's basically the only option they have if they want to get him. Even if we cleared out the farm it probably wouldn't be enough (SD wouldn't want Joseph, either, with Grandal as their future C). Worley would be attractive to SD for a number of reasons, and he'd be even better at PETCO.

I don't know if I would be thrilled by this in a vacuum, because I think Worley is a valuable commodity that isn't going to drop off as much as many of us predicted. He's not JA Happ. And he's a cost-controlled player for several seasons to come. He is the type of player the team needs badly.

But they've got a strong rotation with or without Worley. Likewise, if the top 3 falter, Worley isn't making a difference in saving the team from a losing season. I think that makes him at least somewhat expendable.

And given what Ruben just did to our offense, upgrading at 3B is now not just a "Well, that would be nice" sort of thing. It is a priority.

We could have traded McGehee for Wigginton and nobody would notice for two weeks.

New record traffic day by at least 40 percent.

McGehee stinks. Only reason the Yanks traded for him was because they needed 1B with Texiera's injury status and ARod's already being out with that broken wrist.

Give Amaro a C- for today. Cleared payroll as expected and moved Vic. I am surprised though he moved Pence.

For Christ's sake why didn't we trade Manuel?

It boggles my mind that the Yankees got McGehee for Qualls. Couldn't we have given them a crappy reliever for McGehee?
Posted by: GBrettfan | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 04:24 PM
---------
Maybe Cashman can give Amaro pointers on being a shrewd trading partner and not get taken to the cleaners like we did...

Cashman took a sack of cattle chips (Qualls) and at least got a serviceable player for it vs. the 2 nickels and an overripe cantaloupe that we got for Chad

What happens if we put Lee through waivers? Does whoever claims him have to pick up the entire contract?

If so, there is a very good chance he would clear waivers to be traded.

If they claim him and we let them keep him, they have to take his entire salary. Which is why'd Lee would 100% clear waivers...as would Howard and probably even Utley.

So what the heck is the lineup tonight?

Rollins
Pierre
Mayberry
Utley
Howard
Ruiz
Nix
Fontenot
Lee

look for Vice-roy to be put on waivers.

Pretty impressive with what Theo Epstein was able to do. If he can trade Soriano after he clears waivers and get something, wow!

Love the Gaby Sanchez deal for Pittsburgh.

For Christ's sake why didn't we trade Manuel?
Posted by: kuvasz | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 04:34 PM

------------------

word..

Ah, Frandsen

Rollins SS, Pierre LF, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Ruiz C, Nix RF, Mayberry CF, Frandsen 3B, Lee P

Tonight's lineup:

1. Jimmy Rollins (S) SS
2. Juan Pierre (L) LF
3. Chase Utley (L) 2B
4. Ryan Howard (L) 1B
5. Carlos Ruiz (R) C
6. Laynce Nix (L) RF
7. John Mayberry (R) CF
8. Kevin Frandsen (R) 3B
9. Cliff Lee (L) P

From Twitter: "Dom Brown missed his fight because he took a bad route to the airport."

*** "Dom Brown missed his fight because he took a bad route to the airport."***

Pure gold.


Also, I hate these split-squad lineups. Cant wait till the regular season starts.

I had some hope after the Victorino deal: Young reliever who has pitched 8th inning, high risk flame throwing starter. Nice.

Pence deal is hideous. Schierholtz is worthless and not good enough to command his salary. Joseph is Valle clone which devalues both of them as prospects and in development. Rosin might have some upside but is far away. Even it this deal is done to flip these guys for someone else it is still horrible.

Nothing else is more pitful than that trade but a close second is:

Not getting rid of Blanton. He actually has some value and did pitch better recently. Especially after getting rid of Pence and Victorino his salary relief means nothing (as the Phillies will be paying him regardless now!).

I guess if all the Yankees were offering is Qualls then not worth trading Wigginton. Just trading him for the salary relief would have been a huge win in my opinion (assuming Yankees would take on his remaining salary).

Despite having no OF (why Schierholz, ugh), Pierre should have been traded for 'best offer'. He has no value in Philly anymore.


That Brown comment is awesome.

In all seriousness, why on Earth is Dom Brown NOT playing tonight?

Going back through the threads... and Keith Law actually thinks the Phils did okay? I guess pigs can fly.

Given that he knows a lot more about the players involved than the all of Beerleaguer combined, I feel a little better.

I'm giving Amaro a B- that could climb to a B if he deals Blanton during the waiver trade period. The Vic package is more than I thought we'd get. The Pence package is less than I thought we'd get and I didn't consider that deal to be necessary.

His flight is delayed so he wont make it there.

G-Town - Best tweet of the deadline - made me laugh out loud

I can't believe that the Phillies were/are hung up on a measly $3M in this deal with the O's. There HAS to be more to this story..

In all seriousness, from what I've read, his flight from Syracuse is delayed and he can't get to the park in time to start. He'll probably pinch-hit at some point tonight, and will be in the lineup tomorrow. Charlie said he plans on playing him every day.

Just as well that he misses Strasburg, honestly. Don't want to kill his confidence right away.

R. Billingsly: His plane was delayed. He's apparently going to arrive right around game time.

Gee, it will be fun to watch Juan Pierre taking away AB's the rest of the year from Laynce Nix.

And Joe Blanton serving up HR's on his walk year, while Tyler Cloyd tries to go 20-1 in the minor leagues.

We can't even figure out how to punt and give up correctly.

"Charlie said he plans on playing him every day."

Yeah...because I would imagine he was told to by management.

Thanks for the clarification, Jack and NEPP. The joke was classic, but I thought he was in LHV, therefore, wouldn't need a flight to DC.

Chuck A - not a big deal. Joe B will clear waivers and we can continue to work a deal. All we need is a nice injury to a pitcher on a contender and Joe will have value.

I could see Blanton being traded this week. If he doesn't clear waivers, the Phillies will just let him go to the team that claims him. Otherwise, they can still work a trade with Baltimore.

Schierholtz is not "worthless." I have no idea why people keep saying that. He's nothing special but he's definitely a useful MLB player.

Blanton can still be dealt because he will most certainly pass through waivers.

Schierholtz is a light hitting defense first corner OF. There's value in that but not really that much.

He'll definitely be on the roster next year though.

Starting Mayberry against Strasberg is a criminal act.

KAS: I'd go B- with you as well. A C- is absolutely absurd.

For two months of Victorino we got a young major league bullpen arm under team control through 2018, and apparently a guy with a nice ceiling.

For Pence we got seemingly a very good catching prospect, another pitcher with a good ceiling apparently, and an outfielder who can be a serviceable 5th guy next year and on the bench.

I think people were expecting huge returns and it just wasn't there. Frustrating considering what we gave up to get Pence but I think Amaro got guys who help fill spots and will look good as fallback guys should injuries occur. In addition we cleared some salary space to get away from the luxury tax threshold.

It wasn't a banner day for the Phillies but it was a day that isn't worth hanging heads over.


(For the record- high ceiling claims are from guys like Jonathan Mayo, Tom Verducci, and Keith Law who know more about prospects than people on here)

The difference between Amaro & Gillick is that although Amaro and Gillick both can pull off a splashy trade, but Gillick could also make those minor trades that can make all the difference in the world to a team's success. Amaro can't seem to pull off those minor yet important kind of trades. So many teams pulled off those types of trades today.

See example below...

"7/31/12: The Marlins trade RHP Edward Mujica to the Cardinals for 3B Zack Cox. Quick Take: Cox has the chance to be something special — he’s young and powerful — but the Cards need bullpen help now, and Mujica should provide it."

Shierholtz could be one of those guys that surprises people. He'll do the little things and maybe contribute to some wins.

NEPP: He has a 115 OPS+ each of the last 2 years. His wRC+ is a bit lower but still rates as an average bat.

You have no choice but to start Mayberry. You have no other outfielders.

Fun with misleading statistics:

Nate Schierholtz: OPS+ 115
Hunter Pence: OPS+ 109

The reaction to the Pence deal is mostly driven by (i) lack of optimism that the Phils are serious about cracking the lux tax threshold in 2013 (as well as some of the same feelings when it comes to the current regular core and aging); and (ii) what the Phils gave up in order to get Pence and fall short of the pennant.

KLaw isn't so much looking at the larger context, but the context of the last week and the problems of the last week.

Here is what this day looks like to me...

The organization wasn't prepared for this day. They were still holding out faint hopes that this season wasn't lost and waited way too long to finally realize what anyone with two eyes could have seen long ago.

They got started on this too late and were in pure scramble mode in the last week. The stuff with Lee shows this. They should have been able to get more for Pence then they did. How could they not move Pierre? How could they only make two trades?

Yes, they will likely move a few old guys during the waiver period. So, lets not burn Rube at the stake yet. But he swung and missed this past week. Maybe he'll make some contact before September 1st.

How has Schierholtz done against LHP the last couple seasons with that 115 OPS+?

NEPP: Hence, my prologue "Fun with misleading statistics."

From 2011-2012, Schierholtz has a wOBA of .230 against LHP. That's 4th worst among all OFs with at least 100 PA.

Agree with DH Phils. Anyone claiming Schierholtz is worthless should have his opinion ignored on anything related to baseball for the next 3 weeks. Statline past 2 years (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS+)
2010:
.278/.326/.430/115
2011:
.257/.327/.429/115

Pence's career line:
.290/.342/.481/118

Why is the OPS+ so similar despite the very different OBP and SLG numbers (80 point differnce)? Because Pence has been playing in hitters parks his entire career.

But regardless, Schierholtz is far from worthless. He's a better fielder than Pence, strikes out much less (about half the rate), but has much less power and is a little slower.

Second, Tommy Joseph is a very, very highly regarded prospect (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1279701-tommy-joseph-full-scouting-report-on-prospect-dealt-for-hunter-pence). Scouts are projecting this guy to be a 25HR hitter. From behind the plate!

Neftali Feliz out for the year with Tommy John surgery Vice-Roy to pen.

Why would anyone compare this year's haul for Pence to last year's?

Pence is one year older.
Pence's OPS is about 40 points lower than it was at last year's trade deadline.
Pence is closer to free agency.
Pence will be more expensive next season than he was this season.

All good reasons the return for Pence was less this year. It doesn't make much sense to compare the two. Apples and oranges.

Game chat is up.

denny b- Agreed. No reason Blanton and Pierre are here today. Even a fringe prospect for Pierre would have been fine and I really wanted Blanton moved to call up Cloyd to see if he is the answer for the 5th starter next spring.

Amaro got $.60 cents on the dollar for Pence considering they kicked into cash to move him and Lindblom is a reliever in the Schwimer-mold. Schierholtz is a 4th/5th OF set who really isn't a good defensive OF in RF to make at ~$2M next year. He's no bargain.

If one of the prospects the Phils got today pans out it will be better but this was basically a salary dump day and rolling the dice on a few prospects.

You people all crack me up. Fire RAJ. Fire "Cholly". Why isn't Dom playing tonight? The Pence deal was horrible. Why didn't they trade Lee? blah blah blah. How many of you managed the Phillies to 5 straight NL East titles, two WS appearances, and a WS win?.....How many of you have managed to make this team, at least on paper, better each of the last five years? What's that? None of you? Oh, I find it hard to believe that not a one of you have done that, especially with everybody talking like they could do Ruben and Charlie's jobs better than they can. STOP SECOND GUESSING THE PHILLIES UPPER BRASS AND LET THEM HAVE THEIR MULLIGAN. The last time I checked, this team won a WS in 2008....that's more titles than 27 other teams have had since then. Quit whining; they'll be fine next year.

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