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Thursday, June 14, 2012

Comments

Thome needs only 4 HR to be the second highest home run hitting white boy in history. He is currently 3rd behind Ruth and Sosa.

I am pretty sure we've been linked to Sheets before at some point, although i think every team could say that after about 3-4 different years of 'comeback' trails for him.

And now we will say {insert name here} can't be any worse than {insert name here}. Rube would be stupid not to take a flyer on him. Until he pitches and sucks and then it will be all, I can't believe Rube signed {insert name here}, he should be shot.

Didn't realize Sosa was a "white boy". Very enlightening PPP

Let's bring in Brandon Webb too I hear his arm has been re-attached.

I'm sure everyone knows this, but wanted to pass along that two Phils are in the top 5 of NL AVG: Chooch (3rd) and Pierre (5th.) (Of course, Pierre's SLG is disproportionally lower than his AVG ranking would indicate, but I'll take getting on base.)

Last year I checked pitching stats each day with pride that our pitchers were among the elite in virtually all categories. What a difference a year makes.

Yeah, I can flat out GUARANTEE that no one on here will claim that RAJ would be stupid to not take a chance on Sheets.

With last year's pitching staff performance, the Phils are no worse than 2nd place. They'e already lost 12 games I think when they've scored 4+ runs. There were 13 such losses last year.

Ruben can sign anyone for the pen and I'd be happy with it.

Of what possible use could Sheets be? Another old, broken down pitcher. Emphatic PASS.

Rube's Email to Coles Agent:

Perfect Games
Cain: 1
Cole: 0

Were good at 5/90.

RAJ

Of what possible use could Sheets be? Another old, broken down pitcher. Emphatic PASS.

Posted by: GTown_Dave

I like to fail in new ways sometimes.

I honestly dont see why Hamels is worth Sabathia/Lee money instead of Cain/Weaver money.

Once he has a couple CY trophies and truly dominant best in baseball type years, we could revisit that discussion but he's never done that.

Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 08:27 AM

NEPP, I can't agree with this more. I get killed every time I bring this up, but at no point have I ever looked at Cole Hamels and thought that this guy is a top 5 pitcher.

A few facts that people may seem to forget, considering the ridiculous amount of money being thrown around -

He has never finished higher than 5th in Cy Young voting.

He has never finished higher than 6th in league ERA and never higher than 4th in adjusted.

Never finished the season higher than 6th in K's. Never higher than 4th in WAR.

I tend to think the 2008 WS MVP has clouded the judgement of more than a few people.

I know this seems suspect that I'm throwing this out after another poor Hamels start, and not after a very good stretch, like earlier in the year. However, I am not lying when I say that I have long wondered about just how good Hamels is. Again, I have never quite viewed him as a top 5 pitcher in the league, and according to CY voters, they have not either.

I just don't feel comfortable throwing top 5 (or even top 2) money out there for a guy who has never truly dominated, and who has completely shrunk in the biggest spots he could've been put in this year. This team is practically begging for him to go out and pull them back up and he simply hasn't had it.

Ump blew Dickey's no-hitter? WOW

RA Dickey has 10 wins and his been dominant so far this year?

You mean you can actually find quality pitching that costs less than 20 million a year and the best your farm system has to offer? I can't believe it!

I can't necessarily kill rOOb for wanting to upgrade the rotation, but the amount of money and talent spent to do it is killing this franchise right now. There have been plenty of former WS champions (including our beloved Phils) who employed a more balanced roster build and won it all.

541: CY voting is a terrible argument against whether a pitcher is legitimately top 5. Also, shrinking in "big games" is an even worse argument. Hamels has pitched incredibly well in big games before (you even mentioned his 2008 WS MVP), but giving up 6 runs in an IL game in mid-June abrogates those previous big games where he pitched incredibly well?

Joe D: "Failing in new ways" is the sole category in which the Phillies have absolutely excelled this season.

Five-4-One: Fatalotti & I agree w/ you. Jbird seems to be on the fence about the issue.

541: disagree with NEPP and others last thread, disagree with you even more.

You basically said he's not a top 5 pitcher, but you listed just about every category that he's finished in the top 5 of!

Also, look at your exact quotes in the same post:
"I tend to think the 2008 WS MVP has clouded the judgement"
"who has completely shrunk in the biggest spots he could've been put in this year"

Hmmm, whose judgment is clouded? The people who remember his WS MVP or the guy who is hung up over his last 4 starts in May/June of this season?

but giving up 6 runs in an IL game in mid-June abrogates those previous big games where he pitched incredibly well?

Posted by: Fatalotti

It's his last couple games ... if this turns into another 2009 I'd argue Hamels isn't consistent enough to command big money. Hopefully this is just a fluke.

Shrunk in the biggest spots this year? Come'on. You have a much better argument though that Hamels isn't worth more than Cain (he isn't) or that he should get paid more than Greinke. You could even argue that Greinke is a slightly better pitcher the last few years.

Hamels is still a top 10-15 pitcher in MLB right now and that means he will make $20M+ for 6-7 on the FA market this offseason. Probably close to $23-24 AAV.

Yes, Five-4-One, Cole nearly single-handedly winning the city's first championship in 25 years may be lingering in our minds...

But it's not just deluded fans -- all of the writers and commentators are saying he'll get megabucks on the open market, based on what they hear from agents and front-office execs. Perhaps it's being overblown a bit, but I'd be surprised if it's for less than Lee got from us.

541: CY voting is a terrible argument against whether a pitcher is legitimately top 5. Also, shrinking in "big games" is an even worse argument. Hamels has pitched incredibly well in big games before (you even mentioned his 2008 WS MVP), but giving up 6 runs in an IL game in mid-June abrogates those previous big games where he pitched incredibly well?

Posted by: Fatalotti | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Fat, honestly I'm only talking about the risk involved with the money its going to take to sign him. My argument was also not only based on Cy Young voting (his stats don't exactly back up the top 5 argument either). If he was offered Cain money etc, I'd be perfectly happy.

As far as Cy voting goes, I understand the bias etc involved. However, I do believe it does point to a lack of dominance, the type dominance needed to justify such a large top of the league deal.

Gtown: veeery funny.

Too lazy to look this up, but I believe Hamels was first in WHIP last year.

lorecore, my biggest reason for not wanting to give Hamels major money/years is because he doesn't give you the IP that a lot of the guys who've gotten that money give you, and at the end of the day, he's a 130-135 ERA+ pitcher, which is awesome, but I just don't see it as being worth 7 years at over $20 M awesome.

I love the guy, I do, and arguments like those of 5-4-1 that try to bring him down a notch are unnecessary. He's a great pitcher, and I hope he sticks around (I really do), but I just don't want the Phils committing that top-dollar for him.

541: "RA Dickey has 10 wins and his been dominant so far this year?

You mean you can actually find quality pitching that costs less than 20 million a year and the best your farm system has to offer? I can't believe it!"

Agreed. Lets build our team around finding +35yr old knuckleballers with awful career statistics who despite his recent success over the last 3 seasons has still been a worse pitcher than Cole Hamels in that same span.

Guys, Cole has 9 wins! That's all that matters! Well that's all that matters for most idiots in front offices throughout the league.

JBird: I'll be here all week. Try the veal.

Ugh, I hope this doesn't turn into a Cole Hamels bashing thread. If it does, I'm out of here. One of the best Phillies athletes over the last decade, a pitcher brought up in our farm system, and one who happens to be going through a tough stretch right now (like all pitchers do from time to time...like Lee has done for a month in each of his last 3 seasons).

I don't like the idea of giving him the money that some team like the yanks or Sox might, but I absolutely love his game, definitely think he's top 10 (and maybe top 5), and want him to stick around.

Although MLBTR did not say so, I have to think that Sheets, after all his injuries, would be more likely to come back in a bullpen capacity. If so, then I say: why not? His stuff was always good and, even if he only pitches for a month before breaking down, he'd be a month-long upgrade.

Hmmm, whose judgment is clouded? The people who remember his WS MVP or the guy who is hung up over his last 4 starts in May/June of this season?

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Hey, I hear ya. You and everyone else has the absolute right to disagree with me. The "top five" stats I threw in there were basically one time occurences. I'm just saying that he is going to get a contract that pays him as though he is in the absolute elite echelon of pitchers in the league, and unfortunately for Cole, he has never actually had a year where he is in the absolute elite echelon.

I'm just not ok with the state of the franchise and the possibility of another fat bloated contract. The Phillies are not in a state to be taking on more of that long term risk.

Fatal: Understood, dont worry i'm not lumping 541's argument into your own.

I get your argument, and I think 7 years is pretty outrageous. I would give him Cliff Lee's contract in a heartbeat though, and probably go as high a 6yr/~135M, would love to make that a 5 year deal with 6th option though.

I won't blame the Phillies for not being the highest bidder, but I'll blame them for letting him even go into FA in the first place. To me, they botched this negotiation about 2-3 years ago by not having him at extended already.

I don't think you have to go back 2-3 years; right after Weaver signed (5/85) may have been the moment. Everyone said Weaver left money on the table to stay in Anaheim, but $40-50M!? Perhaps we could have had Cole for 6/105 or so.

But what would really irritate me is the team deciding it can only afford two aces all of a sudden and letting the youngest one go. Why bother signing Lee, then? Could have had a great hitter the past two years (and next three/four) instead.

b_a_p- I'm with you on that, why not take a flyer on Sheets as a bullpen piece? Can't be any worse than the current setup or long man options.

This is the last I'll say about Hamels. Giving him the type of money that has been talked about will be a mistake.

I like Hamels. I want Hamels back. But I'm not going to let my status as a fan of the team and the player cloud my judgement about what is good for the franchise.

I would love to have Hamels back. And really in terms of the budget, what's the difference between Cole making $17m and $20m? Not much, really. But at some point, the team needs to start getting some serious contributions from some seriously under-paid assets to balance out the money paid to the 3 aces and the right side of the infield. They also need the right side of the infield & the 3 aces to start dominating at a level commensurate with their level of pay. That would also help.

What could trying to see what Sheets would give you be a bad thing? Are we honestly that worried about the development of BJ Rosenberg?

Fatal: IP since 2008:

CC
Doc
King Felix
Verlander
Haren
Cain
Shields
Lee
Lincecum
Hamels

How is IP an arguement?

ryan: "But what would really irritate me is the team deciding it can only afford two aces all of a sudden and letting the youngest one go"

jbird: "the team needs to start getting some serious contributions from some seriously under-paid assets to balance out the money paid to the 3 aces and the right side of the infield."

Exactly - this team has spent big bucks in the past, so getting frugal when your youngest ace is leaving would be the absolute worst time in my opinion.

541: "RA Dickey has 10 wins and his been dominant so far this year?

You mean you can actually find quality pitching that costs less than 20 million a year and the best your farm system has to offer? I can't believe it!"

Agreed. Lets build our team around finding +35yr old knuckleballers with awful career statistics who despite his recent success over the last 3 seasons has still been a worse pitcher than Cole Hamels in that same span.

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Typical beerleaguer overreaction. Yes, my comment meant to say that I think we should sign more 35 year old knuckleballers. If thats what you took from that, then I over estimated my opinion of you lorecore. I actually agree with or at least respect the value of most of your opinions.

I only meant to point out that finding quality players wasn't always a direct relationship to how much you are paying them, especially when that money might be more critical in other aspects of the team.

"if this turns into another 2009 I'd argue Hamels isn't consistent enough to command big money."

I'll take 2009....they got to the WS that year.

By overreaction, I meant overrexaggeration.

Overreaction would be what I'm doing right now talking about Hamels.

(This is where I gain points for self deprecating humor).

I'm going on record here to say that I absolutely don't want to trash Hamels. I'm appreciative of everything he has done here and I think he is an absolute gamer and far from a California kid.

"if this turns into another 2009 I'd argue Hamels isn't consistent enough to command big money."

I'll take 2009....they got to the WS that year.

Posted by: Jeremy | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Ok, I'm breaking my own vow to not bring this up again, but I really think it should be mandatory that all people using 2008 as a defense should be required to mention the 2009 WS performances at the same time.

Sorry, I just couldn't let that go.

I'm going on record here to say that I absolutely don't want to trash Hamels. I'm appreciative of everything he has done here and I think he is an absolute gamer and far from a California kid.

Posted by: Joe D | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Yeah, like mentioning his stats and stating my opinion about his worth. Geez, I'm really sorry for offending everyone and "trashing" him.

541: your "I can't believe it!" snark was begging for a sarcastic response, i think you got what you were looking for.

if your point was that quality isnt always a direct relation to salary, I still disagree. Your "always" qualifier obviously can't be argued, but in general:

You get what you pay for in free agency. There are plenty of diamonds in the rough and overpaid busts - but in the end you'll get better performance the more money you pay. Don't get hung up on ends of the spectrum like RA Dickey or Barry Zito.

With last year's pitching staff performance, the Phils are no worse than 2nd place. They'e already lost 12 games I think when they've scored 4+ runs. There were 13 such losses last year.

thru 64 games:

2012: 277 RS, 281 RA
2011: 256 RS, 221 RA
2010: 288 RS, 265 RA
2009: 348 RS, 321 RA
2008: 338 RS, 265 RA
2007: 319 RS, 325 RA

Yep. Offense has been sufficient to keep this team competitive with the 2010 or 2011 NL East. Problem is that we're dealing with the 2012 NL East and that Halladay, Lee, Worley have all spent time on the DL, and the Phils have 1 or 2 reliable relief pitchers.

Yeah, like mentioning his stats and stating my opinion about his worth. Geez, I'm really sorry for offending everyone and "trashing" him.

Posted by: Five-4-One

I never said you were trashing him. I just feel like my comments in the previous thread could come of as such. I think the stats you point out are incredibly valid.

541: your "I can't believe it!" snark was begging for a sarcastic response, i think you got what you were looking for.

if your point was that quality isnt always a direct relation to salary, I still disagree. Your "always" qualifier obviously can't be argued, but in general:

You get what you pay for in free agency. There are plenty of diamonds in the rough and overpaid busts - but in the end you'll get better performance the more money you pay. Don't get hung up on ends of the spectrum like RA Dickey or Barry Zito.

Posted by: lorecore | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Haha, lorecore fair enough. I do appreciate the explanation.

As far as salary related to quality, sure bigger dollar players will generally perform better I get that. But my problem is that the Phillies acted as though the performance as expected based on the dollars spent were "guaranteed." This team is built on the premise that each and every pitcher will live up to the contract they have, with the possible exception of Blanton. There was very little diversification of resources in the strategy employed over the last few years.

Lorecore:

2011: 24th in IP
2010: 30th in IP
2009: 46th in IP
2008: 4th in IP

Outside of 2008, he hasn't been a guy who's been among the top 10 of IP (not even close). Now maybe, the fact that he's 11th in IP since 2008 has more to do with is health, and that's a factor in his favor. Also, since 2008, he's 16th in baseball in IP/GS. Again, these are good numbers, but I just think it's something that holds him back from qualifying for the money that he'll probably seek.

"But what would really irritate me is the team deciding it can only afford two aces all of a sudden and letting the youngest one go. Why bother signing Lee, then?"

Because you gave yourself 2 years with a historic rotation, and you knew you'd able to offer a competitive (back-loaded) contract with Hamels when the opportunity arises. I don't take the lack of extension as damning evidence just yet. I take it as evidence that Hamels won't take a mid-season deal from the Phils and the Phils don't want to extend him mid-season for the money he expects to get this winter.

The Phillies weren't/aren't exactly tearing it up when Halladay, Lee & Worley weren't/aren't on the DL, either. 11-19 in GS by those 3 pitchers. The bullpen & offense have each factored into that.

If we're going to keep harping on Hamels' 2009 postseason, we might want to mention his 2010 postseason (15 innings, 3 ER) or his 2011 postseason (6 innings, 0 ER, W).

Hamels is a tremendous pitcher and has been generally improving since some hiccups in 2009. His next contract is likely to be negotiated based, in part, on the premise that his best seasons lie ahead. I'm willing to indulge that premise. My preference, though, is that they try to get him on a 4 or 5 year deal even if that means a higher annual salary. I expect that has at least some appeal to Hamels who, after 4 or 5 years, will still be young enough to sign another massive contract.

Cole's had great health and now that he is throwing poorly lately and the way this season has gone I fully expect to hear something is wrong with him.

Yeah, like mentioning his stats and stating my opinion about his worth. Geez, I'm really sorry for offending everyone and "trashing" him.

Posted by: Five-4-One

I never said you were trashing him. I just feel like my comments in the previous thread could come of as such. I think the stats you point out are incredibly valid.

Posted by: Joe D | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I didn't think your comment was pointed at me. I just take offense to others who accuse me of "trashing" the guy. Trashing him would be me telling everyone that he's not a good pitcher because of the last 2-3 weeks.

And shame on Rube on not signing every bargain player that's turned into a surprising All Star. What was he thinking, Stanford degree, ha!

Halladay hasn't been himself all year, and I was clearly including the relief pitching in the explanation for RS. The offense isn't special but it's "sufficient." It's 20 runs better than the offense that led to a franchise record in wins. With this offense in 2010 or 2011 they would be at worst a few games out. But their competition is better this year and their pitching has performed far worse.

Rather than once again putting Hamels under the microscope in a theoretical vacuum might we ask ourselves how much signing him at $20-$25 million per year for the next several years possibly benefits the team vs. how much it possibly hinders them in making other, perhaps more necessary, moves?

Maybe I'm being too kind, but I give Hamels a complete pass for late-2009. He put a ton of innings on his arm at a young age in 2008, pitching an extra month. And he himself admits that the (partly mandatory) post World Series circuit cut into his training and prep time. And...he's been awesome ever since.

If we're going to keep harping on Hamels' 2009 postseason, we might want to mention his 2010 postseason (15 innings, 3 ER) or his 2011 postseason (6 innings, 0 ER, W).

Posted by: EastFallowfield | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Keep harping? Maybe I'm missing something, but I believe his 2009 postseason was brought up exactly once, and that was by me.

And the only reason I brought it up is to balance out the shouts of "but he won us the first championship in 28 years" people by pointing out that he basically "lost us the 2nd championship in 29 years."

I never insinuated that his overall postseason numbers aren't good. Only that he hasn't exactly been Mr. October postseason all the time, which is what I feel those that constantly bring up the WS MVP seem to invoke.

Maybe I'm being too kind, but I give Hamels a complete pass for late-2009. He put a ton of innings on his arm at a young age in 2008, pitching an extra month. And he himself admits that the (partly mandatory) post World Series circuit cut into his training and prep time. And...he's been awesome ever since.

Posted by: Ryan | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Aww nevermind. I'm just not going there. Next topic.

Fatal: The fact that he finishes around ~30th in the league each year, but then is 10th overall in that same span tells you that a bunch of guys can pile up lots of IP in one season, but they can't keep it up.

Hamels can. And he's entering his prime.

I guess the question is - do you have doubts that if pushed to go ~240IP down the stretch for a team that he would be unable? I personally don't.

None of those comments justified why Hamels is at a level with Sabathia or Lee. The reason is because he simply isnt.

Can he have stretches where he is unhittable? Yes, definitely.

Is he a #1 pitcher? Yes, definitely.

Is he the very best in the game (the guys that get those deals)? No, not really. He's in that tier just below them because of stretches like the one he's going through right now.

None of those comments justified why Hamels is at a level with Sabathia or Lee. The reason is because he simply isnt.

Can he have stretches where he is unhittable? Yes, definitely.

Is he a #1 pitcher? Yes, definitely.

Is he the very best in the game (the guys that get those deals)? No, not really. He's in that tier just below them because of stretches like the one he's going through right now.

Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Hamels trasher!

NEPP, Hamels stretch right now is no worse than the stretch that Lee goes through once every year where he gets hammered for 3-4 (sometimes 5 starts).

I'm not trashing Hamels at all (I know you're joking). Its not trashing to say he's not Doc in his prime or Sabathia or Kershaw.

As an example:

8/11-8/31
5 GS, 29.1 IP, 27 ER, 8.28 ERA

Lee in 2010

NEPP, Hamels stretch right now is no worse than the stretch that Lee goes through once every year where he gets hammered for 3-4 (sometimes 5 starts).

Posted by: Fatalotti | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Fat, this is also why Lee is not worth the contract he is getting. (Cue nasty responses).

***Hamels stretch right now is no worse than the stretch that Lee goes through once every year where he gets hammered for 3-4 (sometimes 5 starts).***

Except for Lee has managed an entire year not doing it (He won a CY that year) and he tends to have one of those ridiculous 4-5 shutouts in a row type stretches too.

Last 5 years ERA+
Lee: 144
Hamels 124

That's the difference.

I can't necessarily kill rOOb for wanting to upgrade the rotation, but the amount of money and talent spent to do it is killing this franchise right now. There have been plenty of former WS champions (including our beloved Phils) who employed a more balanced roster build and won it all.

Posted by: Five-4-One | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 10:12 AM

3 consecutive division titles and one NL pennant. If they held onto the prospects they traded away, exactly how many playoff appearances would the Phils have made? I will give you a hint. It is the same number as your baseball IQ, starts with Z and ends with ero.

Hamels has never even approached the years Lee put up in 2011 or 2008.

Or what Doc has done the last 5 years (153 ERA+)

Phils relief is responsible for 32% of total RA in 29% of total IP. Phils 2011 relief was responsible for 32% of total RA in 28% of total IP (that's for the whole season). Both starters and relief pitchers 2012 ERA are about a full run higher than they were in aggregate in 2011.

Looks like they share the blame equally. Worley's ERA is identical but he's a few weeks of starts behind.

A couple of points, regarding Sheets.

1) The Phillies got a lot of value from Pedro Martinez in 2009 this way.
2) The Phillies are currently employing Michael Schwimer, BJ Rosenberg, Jake Diekman, and Joe Savery in their MLB bullpen. They should pursue all options.

It's fine to compare Lee and Hamels statistically but the biggest difference between the 2 is age and arm mileage. Cole has the upperhand in both.

Fatalotti: Their down stretches are similar, but Lee's dominant stretches are much better.

***Cole has the upperhand in both.***

Of course he does. That's not really a debate.


Pedro in 2009 is a little different than Sheets now. For one, its a little different to hope that the most dominant pitcher of his generation might have something left in the tank compared to a guy that was never more than a "great potential but never lived up to it" pitcher.

Comparing Ben Sheets to Pedro Martinez is like comparing Chad Qualls to Mariano Rivera.

"I can't necessarily kill rOOb for wanting to upgrade the rotation, but the amount of money and talent spent to do it is killing this franchise right now."

What's "killing the franchise" (although I entirely disagree with that hyperbole) is the underperforming rotation (if 2012 is taken as the norm), the slow development of Brown, and the $40M tied up in 1B, 2B, and 3B.

Phils have plenty of money, even with a $60M rotation, to balance out a roster (esp. if they backload Hamels' contract, so that it escalates once Doc is off the books). There are few, if any teams, that can have a balanced roster given what has transpired over the last 8 months.

NEPP and GTown, I agree. Lee is a better pitcher than Hamels. I said as such a few weeks back when Hamels was pitching out of his mind that I still think Lee is the best pitcher on this team (w/ Doc out on the DL), and I was criticized for it. But Hamels stretch right now isn't why he isn't in the same class as Lee/Sabathia/Halladay. It's exactly what you said. Hamels doesn't reach the dizzying highs that those guys do, whether it's that he hasnt' given a team 240-250 IP, or an ERA+ over 141 yet (whereas CC, Lee and Doc, among others, have all gotten to those figures multiple times).

Again, great pitcher, want him back, not worth the mega bucks that somebody will undoubtedly offer him.

Clifton (Aug 4, 2011 - Sept 26, 2011)

10 GS, 9-1, 2 CG SH, 77.2 IP, 8 ER, 0.93 ERA, 79 SO, 10 BB, 0.836 WHIP

Sophist, lumping in Polly's $6 M contact seems a little ridiculous, no?

His contract isn't hampering anything. In fact, he's probably outperformed his contract since he's been here, even with his stagnant offense over the last year.

***Again, great pitcher, want him back, not worth the mega bucks that somebody will undoubtedly offer him.***

Pretty much this. If someone comes in with a CC Sabathia type deal (8 years, $182 million), I can see why the Phillies wouldn't match it. Its the same as giving Howard $25 million a year. At the time, was he a great player? Yes. Was he the very best in baseball? No.

3 consecutive division titles and one NL pennant. If they held onto the prospects they traded away, exactly how many playoff appearances would the Phils have made? I will give you a hint. It is the same number as your baseball IQ, starts with Z and ends with ero.

Posted by: pissy pants posse | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Stay classy PPP.

You are also the most chronically unfunny poster on any message board that I have ever seen.

The whole starts with "this" and ends with "this" routine, just priceless. You should do standup.

I forgot that we are the kind of city and fans that measure success in playoff appearances. I guess we found out who PPP is: Jeff Lurie!

Sheets might not have lived up to his potential, but he was an excellent pitcher from 2004 to 2008.

Of course, he didn't pitch in 2009 or 2011, and he wasn't very good when he did pitch in 2010. Still, if he's healthy & his stuff looks good, I don't think it's outlandish to believe that he could be an effective reliever. Or perhaps a better way of putting it is: believing that Ben Sheets could be an effective reliever is LESS outlandish than believing that a bullpen of Michael Schwimer, Jake Diekman, Joe Savery, and BJ Rosenberg can help this team overcome a 9.5 game divisional deficit.

Wasting time on Cole. He isn't coming back and rube even said he's not in cliff lee money range. Phils offered him weaver contract he declined so that's that. Who cares if he's one or three. The way he's berm pitching looks more like a three.

Has anyone parsed this to figure out what it means? Because I really don't understand a word of it.

"Yeah, I can flat out GUARANTEE that no one on here will claim that RAJ would be stupid to not take a chance on Sheets.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 09:59 AM"

"I can't necessarily kill rOOb for wanting to upgrade the rotation, but the amount of money and talent spent to do it is killing this franchise right now."

What's "killing the franchise" (although I entirely disagree with that hyperbole) is the underperforming rotation (if 2012 is taken as the norm), the slow development of Brown, and the $40M tied up in 1B, 2B, and 3B.

Phils have plenty of money, even with a $60M rotation, to balance out a roster (esp. if they backload Hamels' contract, so that it escalates once Doc is off the books). There are few, if any teams, that can have a balanced roster given what has transpired over the last 8 months.

Posted by: Sophist | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:11 AM

The reason it is considered an "underperforming rotation" is because of the 60 mil its making. If they were making half that, they wouldnt be quite as underperforming. Killing the franchise because the main focus of all that spending was having a team that only needed a bare minimum offense to still win. Spending 60 mil on pitching that doesn't perform and has some long term deals coupled with a lineup devoid of young long term talent is a lethal combination.

Lee is 5 years older than Hamels. Not sure why we're comparing them straight up.

Matt Cain is about 10 months younger than Hamels, and had his first full season at age 21 (Hamels threw 132 innings at 22). Cain has a bit more regular season experience, same number of AS appearances, but Hamels has 80+ IP of postseason play (1.053 WHIP, 3.67 K/BB, 3.09 ERA, MVP and all that).

up to contract extension/now

Cain: 1317.1 IP, 124 ERA+, 1.196 WHIP, 2.29 K/BB
Hamels: 1250.1 IP, 125 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP, 3.80 K/BB

Cain got 6/127.5 with a 21M option at the end. That's what Hamels will get at a minimum.

Clifton (Jun 6, 2011 - Jun 28, 2011)

5 GS, 5-0, 3 CG SH, 42 IP (out of a possible 45) 1 ER, 8 BB, 29 SO, 0.21 ERA, 0.690 WHIP

Its those types of streaks that make him worth the money...the hope is that he happens to have one coincide with a playoff run (like he did for us in 2009 and like he did for the Rangers in 2010 until the WS where the Giants beat him up)

Major props to Hamels for having such a streak at exactly the right time (Oct 2008). We dont win a WS without him pitching out of his mind that year.

NEPP: Why are you acting like Hamels being 3 years younger than Cliff Lee/CC when they signed their deals is not a factor?


Cain was pretty decent in the playoffs in 2010: 21.1 IP, 0 ER

I mean, that's okay production I guess.

***Why are you acting like Hamels being 3 years younger than Cliff Lee/CC when they signed their deals is not a factor?***

Because Lee isn't a good comp for him either way due to the level of production/performance.

Cain and Weaver are far more accurate comps for Colbert.

CC was 28 when he got his deal from the Yanks, lore.

Sophist: "Cain got 6/127.5 with a 21M option at the end. That's what Hamels will get at a minimum. "

Sign me up.

Comparing Ben Sheets to Pedro Martinez is like comparing Chad Qualls to Mariano Rivera.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Clearly I was not comparing the careers of those 2 pitchers. The Pedro Martinez the Phillies signed didn't much resemble the Pedro Martinez of the late 90s. He had just come off an injury-shortened 5.61 ERA season, had sat out the first half of '09, and was 38. Kicking the tires on him was met with (reasonable) eyebrow-raising, but he provided value down the stretch.

Again, the bar Ben Sheets has to meet is Michael Schwimer. How is he not worth at least looking at?

CC signed a new deal(5yr/122M) just this offseason as 31yr old, thats what i was referring to since NEPP keeps referring to that deal when comparing to Lee's as similar.

lorecore, NEPP clearly referred to the deal that CC signed when he was 28 (in 2009) to pitch for the Yankees which maxed out to $182 M over 8 years.

Again, the bar Ben Sheets has to meet is Michael Schwimer. How is he not worth at least looking at?

Posted by: DH Phils | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Agreed. When your bullpen is historically bad, Ben Rivera would be worth considering.

Pretty much this. If someone comes in with a CC Sabathia type deal (8 years, $182 million), I can see why the Phillies wouldn't match it. Its the same as giving Howard $25 million a year. At the time, was he a great player? Yes. Was he the very best in baseball? No.

Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:15 AM

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