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Monday, June 18, 2012

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Unfortunately "torch the team assets and collect the insurance money" wasn't an option.

selling is stupid and anyone who thinks it really helps teams has been duped by losing GMs and cheap ownership.

I'm still "wait" but, could change to "sell" in 3 weeks.

(Repeating myself)

Following Kendrick's comments yesterday about 'good stuff, bad results' - I don't disagree. His stuff wasn't much different than it has been in games he's succeeded, although his command came and went. No margin for error on this team. Still, 5 runs in 6 is hardly a surprise from him. Phils next off-day falls on 7/2, which would put Kendrick in line to start that one.

If the Phils wanted to, tehy could put Kendrick in the bullpen after 6/28, without adding a starter or throwing anyone on short rest. That would mean he only starts 2 more games while Hamels starts 5 before the ASB.

The Phillies are currently on pace for a 74-88 finish (worst since '00). They'd have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to reach 85 wins, & .628 ball to reach 90 wins. Last season's team had a .629 WP. I don't see this year's club being able to sustain anywhere near either of those marks for the remaining 58% of '12.

For comparison's sake, only two teams in all of MLB (the Dodgers & Yankees, who are ~41% & ~40% through their seasons, respectively) have played .600 ball to this point in the current season. The only other teams that are even close are Texas (.597 WP), Washington (.594 WP) & Baltimore (.591 WP).

Safe to assume that with the Victorino fashion show tonight that we'll have some new embarrassing pictures of Cole Hamels to distract us from this debacle of a season?

Preacher: You sure? I'm willing to take a few test players down by the Zoo & set 'em on fire. Might be worth a shot ...

If the Phils wanted to, they could put Kendrick in the wood chipper after 6/28, without adding a starter or throwing anyone on short rest.

Fixed.

gobay, so if the Phillies don't make the playoffs and Hamels leaves in FA this off-season, that's better than trading him at the deadline and getting a ML ready 3B or OF?

GTown, can we start with Mini Mart? Though, I still suspect Cholly would pencil in his smoldering charred remains at 2B over Fontenot.

Sell Mortimer, Sell!


I look forward to next year's OF of LF Utley, CF Brown, RF Nix

It will go well with the rest of the lineup after they sell off pieces:

3B Rollins
SS Galvis
2B Martinez
1B Howard
C Ruiz
LF Utley
CF Brown
RF Nix

If nothing else, I do feel pretty good about my "Phillies under 93.5 wins" wager I placed before the season.

"Fixed."

If they put Kendrick in teh bullpen, they can put Qualls in the wood chipper. I'm confident Kendrick can strand runners at a higher rate than 40%.

Preacher: Well, Charred Martinez is very versatile. Charlie appreciates that.

NEPP: 2013 WFC here we come!

Hugh: Point taken.

NEPP - is that Cesar or Michael playing 2nd?

I have to say 'wait' because no matter what, you can't sell now, no trades get made before the ASG. If it was July 18th, I'd say sell, absolutely

"gobay, so if the Phillies don't make the playoffs and Hamels leaves in FA this off-season, that's better than trading him at the deadline and getting a ML ready 3B or OF?"

This will not happen. Teams do not trade talent for talent anymore. It has not happened in years. Contenders trade money and minor league players to non-contenders for talent. A team that wants Cole for a stretch run will not weaken themselves by trading a player that is helping their MLB team. If there is a rare situation where a team has a legit MLB player blocked by another at the same position, sure see if you can shake that guy loose. It's unlikely but take a look.

***Michael playing 2nd?***

Michael of course. He's the veteran and thus first in line. Cesar has 4-5 more years in the minors before he is allowed to contend for a position in the majors...and even then, there will have to be some pretty major injuries to justify such a move.


I'm still in shock that Mini Mart is right back in the lineup and basically starting every day.

If you lose Utley, his emergency backup and then the guy you took off the scrap heap plays like shnit then mini-mart gets to play.

You all seem to forget that last season the Mets traded Beltran to the Giants for Zack Wheeler, a pitcher on everyone's top prospect list. Trading Hamels to a contender for a top prospect is indeed possible.

gobaystars: 2 best words in the english language "de fault!"

Halladay and Victorino are the best sells.

Halladay, with a year remaining (plus this year) should attract a boatload of suitors. his 2013 salary is affordable to any team, including the small market variety. those teams are also often stacked with prospects. he should bring in a substantial haul, hopefully chock full of position players. it would also help us try to resign Hamels, if he even wants to stay here.

Victorino would be a classic rental, but should bring a few decent prospects in return.

i'd sell just about anybody who is coveted, sans Hamels, Lee, and Ruiz.

gobay, not talking about taking someone off of another team's active 25 man roster, but a near ready prospect, who is expected to contribute in the majors in the next year or two. Significantly less risk than gambling on a comp pick, since the player has already moved through multiple levels of minor league ball, and a team would be weakening their farm for the immediate benefit of the big league club. This has happened multiple times over the past couple years with Smoak and La Porta.

Smoak, for example, was actually already playing with the Rangers, as he had accumulated 275 PA with them before being dealt to the Mariners. Smoak hasn't worked out thus far, but he was considered a legitimately good prospect when he was dealt.

sure Halladay is a good sell (actually a good buy) but what does it get the Phillies? Why will the Phillies be better in 2013 after trading Halladay?
Do people advocate selling because they heard that it's what non-contenders do?

Man, GTown's numbers above are just crushing. Crushing.

Imagine how many toolsy Low A players Rube could net if he traded all those guys off. Sure, this guy's hit tool isn't quite there yet but he's really fast and Wow, what a glove!!! And this pitcher, he's got a great fastball (that he has trouble controlling) and his secondary pitches are a bit questionable but we really think he's a gem in the rough...no, we dont want that nearly ready AA pitcher with a top pedigree!!! We cant show off how smart we are by getting known top prospects, we need darkhorse guys that no one else is asking for!

Simply 'Wait' as has been the case since April until around the 3rd week in June. If they go into ASB at several games or under .500, it's over.

If they don't move Hamels, they just don't have much to sell.

So even the best case scenario hasn't worked out so far? In that case, sell.

I voted 'wait', but it really applies to 24 guys. I would sell Kendrick at a flea market to the first person who called out a number.

Selling is fine if the goal is something other than contend next year. If the goal is save money, take a few steps back and allow younger guys to play then go for it.
If the goal is to improve and win then selling reminds me of that Simpsons episode where Bart is put in the special class and says. "We're behind the rest of our class and we're going to catch up to them by going slower than they are? Coo Coo!"

Gobay, people advocate selling because the farm system is empty and the Phils have completely missed on the majority of recent position player draft picks and acquisitions.

Are you completely unaware of the financial constraints that this team is under for as long as the Utley, Howard, and Lee contracts exist?

I really don't mean to sound like a jerk, but if you crunch the numbers just on currently committed money, there is very little room to significantly upgrade this team over the next few years while the high price players only continue to get older and less effective.

I hate selling as well. But in order for any team to have sustainable success, they need to have SOME homegrown position talent to keep the payroll reasonable. The Phillies simply do not have middle of the lineup everyday run producers developing in the minors.

I moved here from Ca-na-da and they say I'm kinda slow, eh?

I start fires.

"but what does it get the Phillies?"

no idea. hopefully a strong haul of talented position players. there should be a lot of demand, hence many good packages to choose from.

no, i don't think it makes the Phillies better in 2013, but next year may be a struggle anyway. 2014 looks much better with so many contracts coming off the books over the next 2 years.

Imagine how many toolsy Low A players Rube could net if he traded all those guys off. Sure, this guy's hit tool isn't quite there yet but he's really fast and Wow, what a glove!!! And this pitcher, he's got a great fastball (that he has trouble controlling) and his secondary pitches are a bit questionable but we really think he's a gem in the rough...no, we dont want that nearly ready AA pitcher with a top pedigree!!! We cant show off how smart we are by getting known top prospects, we need darkhorse guys that no one else is asking for!

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, June 18, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Geez, that sounds like a pre 2012 Eagles draft.

Wait.

Too early, too many injuries, they're in a slump. Sell (but keep Cole) if they're playing like this come ASB.

"I would sell Kendrick at a flea market to the first person who called out a number."

This has my undying support. I'll even toss in Martinez to sweeten the deal.

gobay, your point has some merit, but doesn't really apply to the Hamels situation, does it? If he's going to be on the FA market this off-season either way, and if the season becomes lost, then the question is, which is better: getting the pick when he signs with another team or trading him at the deadline, and getting near ML ready talent? If you end up re-signing him during the off-season, then the question becomes: sign him and get nothing for him via trade, or sign him and get something via trade.

I picked "wait". But I think that wait should only be 3-4 weeks.

I say they give out a myriad of 3-5 year deals for guys in their mid 30s. That formula seems to be working well so far.

JW: Define "wait." Until the season is over? Or wait until the trade deadline?

I picked "wait". But I think that wait should only be 3-4 weeks.

Same here.

I'd only sell Cole if there was a gentleman's agreement that he re-sign for market value in the off season. Outside of that, keep him and get a damn extension done, whatever it takes. The reality is that we've seen the best we're going to see from Lee and Halladay, and we need Cole to anchor this rotation for whatever the hell kind of team we field next season. I don't see how he's expendable for more than just the balance of this lost cause of a season.

***Phils have completely missed on the majority of recent position player draft picks and acquisitions.***

Right now, we do not have a single blue-chip position prospect in our system. Sure we have a decent handful of "intriguing" prospects that might turn into something but every team can say that about their system. If you follow the minor-league box scores like I do, there is really nothing at all to even look for at AAA, AA or A+ ball. Maybe some of last year's guys breakout at Williamsport this year but that's a longshot. Even if they did, they're 4-5 years away from contributing.

Pitching-wise, the system isn't much better. Outside of May and Biddle, we again have nothing to even look out other than "Well, he might be the next Worley but probably not..."

If competitor and money hungry Hamels is the one that makes the decision about his future then I don't know how the hell he could want to be anywhere near Philadelphia. If sentimental Hamels is the one that makes the decision then yeah maybe he will return.

"They're sitting out there waiting to give you their prospects, are you going to take it? Are you man enough to take it?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7zHF19n2qE

SELL!

We should trade Halladay to the Blue Jays for D'Arnaud, Drabek, and Anthony Gose.

re: NEPP and the state of the farm.

I agree, there is nothing down there that is setting the world on fire and climbing the ranks at a rapid pace. It is very worrisome. And this team also can't afford to hope that guys turn into the next Worley. I like Worley, I like him a lot but he's nothing more than a middle of the rotation guy. They can't hope for more of that. They are going to need 1's and 2's for the future because Doc isn't going to be around forever, Lee is trending towards the downside of his career and Hamels could be gone.

And with this recent disaster I highly doubt this front office is going to be at the top of the bidder list for arms that want 3+ year deals. I feel like Lee and his recent choke job will put the front office back to their old ways of thinking about starting pitching and contract length.

Wait.

Too early, too many injuries, they're in a slump. Sell (but keep Cole) if they're playing like this come ASB.

Posted by: 3r0ck | Monday, June 18, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Other than Hamels, what exactly do the Phils have to offer?

Lee - Very few teams can take on his contract, and he has a 9 team no trade (Not Likely)

Halladay - Right at this moment he is injured goods, and he is also really expensive for this year and next. Trading him is actually a huge if. (Also Not Likely)

Victorino - Comparing his trade value to Michael Bourn is totally ridiculous. Like Jason Bourne, Victorino has no identity anymore. He used to be deficient in lots of areas, like having a high baseball IQ, but he used to play with so much energy and passion. Now he looks totally lifeless. He plays stupid at times, he is among the worst everyday hitters in the league, at least batting lefthanded which is painful to watch, and that youthful exuberance is gone. And he's a rental. Good luck moving him. (Likely to happen, yet they stand to get almost nothing in return)

Thome - They stand to get nothing except some cash in return (I also say likely, but not like it matters)

Pence - Trading him might net the best return, considering his relative cost, yet he would only be a one year rental. And trading him at his lowest might be a bad move (Highly unlikely, he has too many tools)

JRoll - I put that in there since its hilarious

Papelbon - Contract too big, and other teams may ask him to pitch more often which would possibly cause Papelbon to retire during the second half.

When(if?) Utley and Howard return, we will be in the unique position of having 3 players-Thome,Utley & Howard- best suited to fill a DH spot in the non DH league.

Utley, Howard and Polanco can not ,in all liklehood, play the field everyday. So we will see a good deal of our depth chart on display in the second half of the season as well.

Our only real chance to climb the standings is if our starting pitching returns to something a lot nearer to 2011 form .

Still, I voted "wait", because I don't think fire sale trading will net us much return.

What I think will happen though, is Rube will make a big name trade just because that's what Rube does.

d'Arnaud is posting a .985 OPS in AAA at Age 23 right now. Granted, that is in Las Vegas but even if you adjust for that, he's still looking like a Top 10 prospect.

I believe Kyle is undergoing TJ surgery shortly.

I voted sell. The thought process behind that decision was to shed as much salary as possible so that they can fix some holes via free agency without going over the luxury tax next year. I don't equate "selling" with "rebuilding" as some do. Just because you're sellers doesn't mean you've given up for the next 4-5 years. If selling frees up some money to sign Cole and gives a few bucks towards the 'pen and other areas of need -- I'm all for it.

I've yet to see a compelling argument for buying. This team, with their injuries -- and their manager -- are not going to win. They were playing ok ball for awhile, staying afloat, but now they're lost. It's not out of the realm of possibilities to grab that second WC spot (Hell, it's not even the ASB yet), but I can't see the value in going all-in this year only to handcuff the team in the next few.

Either way something has to be done, so "wait" was not a viable option for me.

I think all this talk of hamels not wanting to play in Phila anymore because of the state of the team is overdone. The Phillies are a proven winner, more so than anyone in the NL. They are in a rough spot today but Cole knows that the Phillies will do whatever they can to win. Can the same be said about the still in flux dodgers' ownersip that everyone has him signing and winning with next year? I'm not so sure he's written off the organization just yet.

I consider that the most important vote I'll make all season.

Who would be left to pitch if they traded Cole and/or Lee?

Clearly you have to prepare to sell, but the team can afford to wait until some kind of hot streak occurs BEFORE the trade deadline OR wait until there is some sort of threshold for being so many games out of the 2nd wildcard position.

I'm the in the Wait-and-See tribe.

The upside for Cole is that he's already won a ring so the desire to go chase a championship likely isn't there as much. Thus, if the Phillies offered him market value, he'd probably come back.

The question becomes "what is his market value and can they afford to pay him that?"

I dont see how they can without a substantial jump in the team salary which might not be possible given the other obligations they already find themselves dealing with.

They will have to find a CF, 3B, 2 SP and some other minor pieces with around $30 million next year...assuming they dont raise their overall salary level. Once again, we will see something like $9 million disappear just to salary increases to current aging players.

We can no longer wait for He Who Uses the F-bomb at the Parade or The Man who Lives near the Canal. The time is now to sell. Even the ticket oak cannot shed it's leaves if no one is there to pick.

-Chief Cutyerlosses, WaitNSee Tribe

Yo, new thread

Does anyone think that it really might be in this team's best interest to shut Howard and Utley down for the rest of the year? Especially if they continue to go backwards. I know they think it's cool to wait until July to start playing but it looks like some other teams in the league are playing baseball now, did so in May and April as well.

Just a thought?

JW has gotten prolific on us -New Post

Sell.
For one, they can't buy. They have nothing to use in order to buy.

Second, this isn't a team that is playing good ball and just waiting for injuries. This is a team that is playing bad & looks the part.

Prior years you could watch this team and expect them to pull out a win or a series, now you expect them to lose.

Buy.

As in, buy a a giant bus, load up Mini Mart, Wiggy, Kendrick, and shovel the lifeless slop of a bullpen in through the emergency exit and drive that sucker right into the Schuykill.

As for Cole and the Dodgers, if he's smart, he'll see that they've already taken a page right out of RAJ's playbook by signing Andre Either to a monstrous extension that looked bad before the ink dried. A 30-year-old, defensively challenged, good-but-not-great hitter signed to a 5+ year, mid-season contract extension worth a ton of money. Where have we seen that before?

Three root problems (1) age - Rollins, Polonco; Utley (2) injuries - Halliday, Howard; and (3) playing below expectation - Victorino, Pence.
'Injuries' and 'expectation' can get better; age is just going to get worse. Sell the age (if you can), wait for the other two.

Domonic Brown's injury complicates things, but the Phils should still look to trade Victorino if there's value to be had in the market. Mayberry is starting to hit and can hold down the fort until Brown returns.

The team's not about to blow it up and start from scratch, not with well over $100M/year committed to veterans on long-term deals and very little young talent on the horizon. They're trying to reload, not rebuild. Trading Lee or Halladay makes sense only if they can extend Hamels now with the money freed up by the deal. If Hamels won't talk contract before free agency, deal him for prospects and try to bring him back after the season.

Pence is a tougher call, but if you're planning to contend in 2013, you keep him unless you're overwhelmed. He won't be cheap next year ($13-14M in arbitration) but it's only a one-year commitment. The key is NOT to sign him to a long-term extension (are you listening, RAJ?). Defensively-challenged corner OFs that can hit are signable in free agency for less than Pence will get from a second-tier team desperate for a marketable "star."

Chooch stays because there's nothing behind him in the organization that will arrive soon (Valle is at least 2 years away), and they'll need Chooch with the young pitchers (Cloyd, Hyatt, Pettibone, May, etc.) as they hopefully arrive. Thome gets sent back to Cleveland for one more last hurrah; he won't bring back anything useful, but it's the right thing to do. Polanco stays because (1) nobody wants a guy that's constantly banged up and (2) he's about the only Phillie playing major-league defense these days other than Chooch, Vic, and Mayberry.

I say SELL!!! ...It's time to move out the '59 models, and bring in the new crop of 1960 Corvairs!

SELL! SELL! SELL! This team has no offense. Should have let Rollins walk when they had the chance and begin the much needed youth movement. If you are not going to resign Hamels (and I don't think they will), sell him for a top prospect and a bona fide major league starter at 2b, 3b or OF. If somebody wants Blanton, see if they can biggie size your value meal at Wendys or something like that. Not worth much more. Victorino might get you some veteran help in the bullpen for next year. See if Qualls can get you that apple turnover at McDonalds. SELL!!!

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