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Monday, June 11, 2012

Comments

Re-post (I seem to have a talent for posting in the prior thread 1 minute after JW puts up a new one.)

Today, 78 wins seems pretty optimistic. When I made that prediction I was playing the contrarian to all the 90+ win scenarios. Who knew?

Additionally, any prospects for this gang playing .600+ baseball for the remainder of the season -- the winning percentage required to "catch up" -- appear very remote.

Since Hamels seems determined to test the market, I believe it's imperative to move him as a rental at the deadline, maxing out the number of genuine prospects received in return. Depending how it goes in November, take a second look at the vaunted lefty at that time. I can't see any other way to for the Phils to qualify as a suitor.

"There are 100 or so games left and all we can do is watch. I think they'll improve. Will it be enough to take the division?"

No. No it won't.

Why?

Because we have real competition in the division this season.

Because no one from the DL is physically capable of riding in the town and carrying the team on their shoulders anymore.

Because the farm is tapped out, making any trade for an impact major league talent nearly impossible.

Because the payroll is maxed out for 2012 and Amaro isn't going over the Luxury Tax for a team that has far more holes than the one who was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs last season.

Because this era of Phillies dominance has ended.

The question is: is Amaro smart enough to recognize the obvious and begin building for the future instead of sabotaging the next five seasons in a futile effort to claw back into the playoffs this season.

Mark my words: this IS the last season in which we have talent that can be traded for blue chip prospects. Trading Hamels and Victorino is no guarantee that we'll contend in the next several seasons, but not trading them is all but a guarantee that we will not.

Anyone who truly believes otherwise is welcome to craft a bet that represents their optimism. At least if I'm going to be miserable watching my team, I might as well be a miserable realist and take some of your money.

For the record, Will said this exact same thing in 2010.

As did other people, by the way. And it looked pretty hopeless then, also.

Now granted, this team is a lot worse than that one was. But the point is, some people want to make these broad, sweeping statements about the franchise going into the tank whenever things are going badly. Every losing streak or "God, they're never going to crawl out of this" hole they dig themselves is reason enough for people say that this signifies the end.

Sometimes it's just not your year. It's not even set in stone that this is the case yet, by the way, but even if it is, people would be wise to calm down and try to think rationally about what the team was forced to overcome this year. Or just keep making doomsday predictions like you have for the past 3 seasons. I guess at some point, you're going to be right.

There are no toupes big enough to cover this bald spot.

I'm not looking to defend Lee too strongly but, was teh pitch to Tolleson really a mistake? He threw that ball inside about 80 times yesterday. That was the plan to righties. The one Tolleson hit was six inches off the inside corner. Hard to hit that fair. Maybe straighter than he'd like but, sometimes you have to give teh other guy a little credit. Even if he's a career minor leaguer.

If Ty Wigginton and Mike Fontenot are everyday players on your team, you're gonna have a bad time.

Hugh...c'mon. Seriously c'mon. That pitch got way too much plate and the point is if you are an ace you have to be able to best the Don Tollefsons of the world. That's just how it is. And the pitch that was in question before was also a ball. It's off the plate.

If Ty Wigginton and Mike Fontenot are everyday players on your team, you're gonna have a bad time.

Posted by: Matt | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 09:14 AM

This is exactly why this hole is far different than any other season. You get dubious offense out of multiple positions and terrible defense to boot. You have 2 bonafide starters in Hamels and Lee, both of whom have underwhelmed in the last 2 weeks. You have an injured Worley, a resurgent, but for how long Kendrick and a horrendous Blanton.

Finally, you 2 legit arms in the bullpen, Paps who only pitches when things are going far better than they are and Bastardo.

I just don't see this current lineup, who will not be getting help any time soon, being able to even play above .500 baseball. A lineup that is always including Wigginton, Pierre/Mayberry, Luna, or Fontenot is just not going to get it done.

So many f-ing holes on this team.

With all of the team’s holes and band-aids, it is still a fact that RAJ’s organizational plan was to build—and pay--around the strengths of impeccable starting pitching and fool-proof closing. Capitalizing on strengths is a fine organizational strategy, except when those assets don’t deliver at the level they are expected to deliver, either due to injury or performance (3 Aces) or sitting on their butts (Pap.) Blame the plan itself, or the inability of the assets to perform at projected value. But to ridicule the fill-ins who were never part of the Grand Scheme to begin with seems mistaken.

So the factors of cost and expectations should come into the picture. I’m not sure if this exists officially, but I would like to see price/value ratios. Of course, Howard this year would be at the bottom because he hasn’t performed at all and makes huge bucks. Pierre might be on top.

Switching gears, here is another annoying thing to start a Monday: I listen to talk radio in the mornings en route. Either hosts should know at least a little bit about the team they discuss or shut up. Eskin is covering for Cataldi this morning. Not that Cataldi is a walking encyclopedia either, but in the 30 minutes I listened today, Eskin: didn’t remember the name of Ross Gload, thought MiniMart hadn’t arrived yet from the DL, and pronounced Todd’s last name “ZoleSki.”

Speaking of starting the week on the wrong foot: Usually game-less Mondays are also annoying. But today it is strangely refreshing to know I will have a stress-free evening.

Can of corn,

You forgot to mention the 25 minute interview with Joe Banner.

ATTENTION: Please stop talking about Joe Banner. It has got to be the most boring conversation of all time.

541: AGREE!!! I am so tired of football talk, especially Banner, in the middle of baseball season.

I'm just glad they're off today. I need a break.

The fact that they aren't playing tonight is probably helping my marriage.

Hey, we're glad we're not playing tonite.

Well looking at the crop of free agents next year. Trade Cole and Shane and get good sal relief. Then the outfield class and starting pitching class very strong. Really don't want to lock Cole up when we can sign another one half the price and fill an outfield spot. Third base class really weak. Do we take a chance on figgins if M's cut him lose? Lots of decisions but the team needs to trade those two and promote sandberg.

"Do we take a chance on figgins if M's cut him lose?"

Umm. No.

"they're still members of the 'pen and represent the best available options"

I seem to remember another pitcher in the bullpen that has been available in each of the league leading 7 walk off losses this year.

I only brought up chone because wright ain't going nowhere and youk is 50. Guess polly be back next year

Pretty amazing how many holes there are on a $170 Million team.

Great roster planning by our GM there.

I only brought up chone because wright ain't going nowhere and youk is 50. Guess polly be back next year

Posted by: The hook | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Honestly, no on Polly as well. Give me a sure handed all glove no hit guy for the time being, if it has to be. At this point, you can't even expect Polly to be healthy at any point. So then you get stuck with bad handed no glove and no hit guy at third.

Pretty amazing how many holes there are on a $170 Million team.

Great roster planning by our GM there.

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 10:16 AM

NEPP, its actually really not that stunning if you consider the percentage of payroll given to over 30 players.


I understand everyone wants to blame the lineup. And it's definitely not great, especially situationally.

But for a team based around pitching, it should be 'good enough.' Through 62 games they are averaging 4.21 RPG. Last year, through 62 games, they were averaging 3.97 RPG.

The problem is the starting pitching, and, by extension, the bullpen. Almost everything that could go wrong with these two areas of the team has gone wrong, with basically nothing breaking the right way (Blanton is garbage, injuries to Worley and Lee, Halladay's devastating injury, Contreras going down just as he was starting to pitch well, Stutes being MIA).

The main issue with the starting pitching, as I think MG touched on in the last thread, is not merely the fact that they're blowing leads almost regularly- it's that they aren't going deep into games. This exposes a bullpen that is woefully thin on a nightly basis. The bullpen was pretty bad last year, also, but the starters made it basically a non-issue by going 7 and 8 innings every night. That is not the case this year, and the team is paying for it.

Starting pitching can cover up a lot of weaknesses on a team- it did last year, and that was supposed to be the case this year. But everything that went right for the staff last year is going wrong for it this year, and that's the main reason this team is losing all of these close games.

Offense isn't the problem. The Nats are scoring 3.86 RPG. Luckily for them, they've had the best starting staff in the league so far.

DL Polly,see what Hulett can do. Also send RFD down and see if he can get help like he did last year.


"I understand everyone wants to blame the lineup"

Disagree - the general tone I've gotten is that everyone is to blame.

"they're still members of the 'pen and represent the best available options"

I seem to remember another pitcher in the bullpen that has been available in each of the league leading 7 walk off losses this year.

Posted by: lorecore | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Yep.

Hulett? The 29-year old minor league lifer who is hitting .231 and slugging .296 for the season? Something tells me he's not the answer.

I know that I am always consumed with the Phillies but I obviously pay attention to the rest of MLB too. Is there another team that isn't a worse situation right now given payroll, recent success, etc.? I really think this club is a class all of its own in terms of how terrible they currently are, project to be for the future and the plans in place.

*is in a worse situation

The defense is for crap, too, & it cost the Phillies one win & a chance for another this past weekend.

Regardless, I imagine there will be rising fan pressure for a fire sale as the Phillies continue to plumb the depths of the Senior Circuit's Eastern Division. To reiterate:

Unless something miraculous is offered, I increasingly feel it doesn't make sense to sell at the deadline. This is shaping up to be a lost season regardless of what in-season trades are made (or not made). Might just be best to ride it all out, get a better sense of who's worth keeping & who's not, & have a very busy off-season.

Of course I'm certain r00b will make awful choices no matter when he makes them, but whatever. It's something to talk about in the meantime.

GTown, if the season is completely lost, you trade Hamels for the biggest haul you can land. You can still target him in the offseason, but why let him walk away and get nothing but some measly picks?

Joe D: "Hugh...c'mon. Seriously c'mon. That pitch got way too much plate"

If by "too much of hte plate" you mean missing the plate by 6" inside then, I agree with you. Tolleson wasn't the first guy to stay on that pitch but, he was the first one to keep it fair. I wanted Lee and Ruiz to work outside the third time through teh lineup because they were starting to square him up inside but, they stuck with hte game plan. I was more annoyed by the walks that inning. Lee was nibbling low and he had a hitter's ump behind the plate who was calling a highish zone. Orioles had some long at bats, including Tolleson's first AB where he saw like 12 pitches. Phils could take a lesson on how to beat a good pitcher.

"Unless something miraculous is offered, I increasingly feel it doesn't make sense to sell at the deadline. This is shaping up to be a lost season regardless"

GTown, I agree with you on a lot of things. However, how does this make sense? Why would it not make sense to turn some players into prospects, when the season is lost regardless. Hamels and Victorino give you nothing if you don't.

Iceman - Agreed. Offense hasn't been the problem with this team. It's been average and better. Phlipper made the point probably 7,234 times on here but he's right.

If Howard/Utley/Halladay were coming back in the next 2-3 weeks, I would still feel pretty optimistic about their chances this season especially about making the playoffs via the WC. They aren't though.

It isn't 2010 either. Not by a long shot. They don't have the payroll flexibility & room to take on additional large salaries. They moved a move amount in the Oswalt/Pence trades. More importantly though everyone is 2 years older and Howard/Utley have had serious medical issues which will effect their ability going ahead forward.

Just have to play it out, hope they can get back to .500 or maybe slightly better, and get some pieces back which enable them to have their typical 2nd half run.

Asking a lot of things to fall into place at this point.

Fair enough Hugh...you say it was 6 inches off the inner half? Is this according to Brooks site? Does that account for where the pitch is when it is hit? I'm just curious because what I saw was a ball that was leaking over the heart of the plate to the inner half.

I wholeheartedly agree that this team could take a lesson from many on how to work at bats.

Fatalotti: Honestly, I'd rather have the picks. I don't see Cole as someone willing to be jerked around by r00b's faux-genius & then choose to return to Philadelphia (who will almost certainly not be the high bidder for his services). Admittedly, just a hunch on my part, but even so.

Getting .60 on an asset is better than nothing. The only guy who is going to get the Phils a blue chip prospect though is Hamels. Vic doesn't. Only a package of mid-tier prospects.

Polanco has a little trade value but if his health status is in question that's shot.

Blanton at this point has almost no trade value. Who wants to give up anything and have to pay him over $2.5M the last 2 months for a guy you don't want starting a postseason game?

Thome/Wigginton/Nix types get you at best a B/C prospect. Nothing more.

When you get down to it, the Phils don't even have a lot of tradeable commodities right now either.

All I know is that Ruben does decide to sell he will do so early and not let all offers pour in because that's his style with everything. Be the first one to finish. He does it every offseason with free agent signings. He is like that teenage boy about to have sex for the first time.

"I really think this club is a class all of its own in terms of how terrible they currently are, project to be for the future and the plans in place."

Yeah, you're wrong.

Hugh: Lee lost a 3 run lead by the 4th inning. I dont care what pitch was good/bad - the fact remains that other team plated 3 runs to erase the lead.

GTown, I think trading Hamels midseason to a contender only makes it MORE likely that we can re-sign him. If the season is a lost cause, you're basically saying to Hamels, "Here, have a shot at a title this year, we're going to get some pieces for you, including a major league ready player that we feel will make us a better ball club going forward."

That way, they're sending Hamels off w/ a chance at a title, and they are doing their best to make sure the team that he returns to may be better than the one he left.

No, Joe, I didn't look at teh Brooks site. I'm going off the 2 replays they showed on the MASN telecast yesterday, with that box thingie purporting to illustrate location, and which may or may not be accurate. I don't think it leaked over but, from what I saw, it was a too-straight cutter that didn't cut enough. Still, my beef with the pitch was more 'too many times to the well' than, 'got too much of the plate'.

Joe D: Premature negotiation aside, he sure has managed to f*ck the ball club pretty hard.

"I really think this club is a class all of its own in terms of how terrible they currently are, project to be for the future and the plans in place."

Yeah, you're wrong.

Posted by: Iceman

Clearly there are teams in worse situations. I'm talking about teams in the same "category" as the Phillies. I only know the intimate details (farm system, contract statuses) of the Phillies so I'm just curious if there are other teams in a similar doom and gloom situation.

No, Joe, I didn't look at teh Brooks site. I'm going off the 2 replays they showed on the MASN telecast yesterday, with that box thingie purporting to illustrate location, and which may or may not be accurate. I don't think it leaked over but, from what I saw, it was a too-straight cutter that didn't cut enough. Still, my beef with the pitch was more 'too many times to the well' than, 'got too much of the plate'.

Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy

Ah ok, I was just curious. I don't disagree that the approach in the at bat wasn't the best either.

Re: getting picks for Hamels should he sign with another team - I thought draft pick compensation for losing a free agent was coming to an end?

Trading Hamels definitely makes it LESS likely that you'll re-sign him, as you'd be giving away the exclusive negotiating rights that the Phillies possess from now until free agency begins. Of course, if anyone is in position to assess the chances that those exclusive negotiating rights will lead to fruition, it is RAJ. If he is quite sure they won't, and the Phillies continue playing as they have, it's hard to think of a compelling argument for not trading him.

Trading Cole, that is. Not RAJ. Although . . .

I'm usually a huge optimist about this team. In the past, when Utley would go down with an injury, I still thought the team was good enough to win the division, and they were. But I'm having trouble with that this season just because of some of the dreck that's gotten starting spots this season, but the most amazing fact about this team to me is, they are still only 5 games out of a wild card. That's how bad the NL is. Even so, I'm having trouble with optimism this year, because I really have no idea what the team is going to get out of Howard and Utley if anything. If I thought they'd both come back like the Howard & Utley of old, I'd be happy if the B-team they are running out there now would just keep the team in striking distance. But I don't think the Howard & Utley of old are walking through that door. At least not this season. I'd be more than pleased to be wrong about that though and there's still plenty of games left, but it's getting late early this year.

Re: getting picks for Hamels should he sign with another team - I thought draft pick compensation for losing a free agent was coming to an end?

Posted by: Down and out in Cape May | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Thats only on in season acquisitions. So you can't rent a player, lose him to FA and get picks. However, your full season guy still gets you picks.

"GTown, I think trading Hamels midseason to a contender only makes it MORE likely that we can re-sign him."

I think this scenario is a pipe dream, but almost the same thing happened with Lee, so who knows?

Obviously if the team continues to look this bad, and continues to get absolutely no breaks a month from now, you have to look at dealing Hamels (I'd deal Vic either way, to be honest). But doing so in hopes that you'll be able to have it both ways and sign him in free agency is pretty unealistic.

Thanks for the clarification Five-4-One.

"I'd deal Vic either way, to be honest). "

Ice, exactly. What is the harm in this. Plenty of "mid level prospects" have turned out to be pretty decent contributors. In terms of farm system, the Phils are in bad shape. Even the mid level prospects are still worth the return considering the state of the farm system.

"But I don't think the Howard & Utley of old are walking through that door. At least not this season."

At this point, I don't even think it matters much if you're getting them at 100%. Like I said, the offense has not been the problem.

But if you get those two back at even 75-80%, you're eliminating Wig/Mayberry and Fontenot from the everyday lineup. That is HUGE addition by subtraction. You could put Howard and Utley's jocks out there and it would be an upgrade from the black holes they're currently forced to put in the starting lineup, both offensively and defensively.

Joe D.: Detroit is not having the season they envisioned with a 3-4 of Cabrera-Fielder and a Verlander lead staff. they have 1 less win than the Phils.

"Even the mid level prospects are still worth the return considering the state of the farm system."

Right. And the way I look at it, Vic has not been a big contributor to the offense this year anyway. And you're not re-signing him. So get what you can for him and move on.

Joe D.: Detroit is not having the season they envisioned with a 3-4 of Cabrera-Fielder and a Verlander lead staff. they have 1 less win than the Phils.

Posted by: Jbird

True. I was watching them last night and they seem to be just as listless as this bunch we watch every night.

Yeah there is absolutely no reason why Victorino should finish this year a Phillie. None.

Fatalotti: I understand that POV, & it makes some sense. I simply have a feeling that Hamels & r00b aren't the best of buds, & I don't think Cole is going to buy into that line of BS. He was here before r00b, & he sees both what the Phillies have to work w/, & what kind of choices they're prone to making. Besides which, I also feel folks are highly overestimating what's going to be available. The extra Wild Card might just as soon make teams LESS likely to deal for a "name" player because they feel they've got just enough, or only need a small piece or two, to sneak into the Postseason, & don't want to part w/ a haul of players for a 3 mo. rental. My thought is the Phillies have a better chance of keeping Hamels if they keep Hamels -- which is to say, he'll stay at a discount because he likes it here & wants to be a "Phillie for life", or he'll go to the highest bidder come November.

No team has the depth to survive the number of injuries the Phils have had. None. The team's been missing its #3 and #4 hitters all year, and Doc's essentially been out all season (replaced by a weakened version of himself for two months and now on the DL).

All things considered, we've been surprisingly competitive until the last week or so. The injuries to Galvis and Polanco gutted the infield defense, and losing Contreras left us without a single reliable RH reliever in front of Papelbon. None of those guys alone is mission-critical, but losing all three after all the other injuries is the straw that broke the camel's back.

It's looking like a lost season, but for a good GM, lost seasons are opportunities to rebuild. We'll find out soon whether Amaro is good at doing something other than simply spending gobs of cash. My fingers are crossed.

The only starting players assured of being back on the Phillies next year....

Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard (if healthy), Chase Utley (if healthy) and Jimmy Rollins?

All I know is that Ruben does decide to sell he will do so early and not let all offers pour in because that's his style with everything. Be the first one to finish. He does it every offseason with free agent signings. He is like that teenage boy about to have sex for the first time.

Posted by: Joe D | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 10:42 AM

This is a hilariously apt description of Amaro's approach.

Iceman: Nice posts. Last year the big 3 had 17 CG in 96 starts; this year they have none in 33 starts. Those missing innings are going to an awful bullpen.

Iceman: I'd be more confident if we got back the 75-80% players too. How likely you really think that is though, and how far off do you think those players are?

It's not just the pitching:

Phillies Situational Hitting Woes Are Historic

I have always hated citing R/G as an example of anything, because WHEN said Runs are scored counts for quite a bit. At any rate, it's pitiful that a supposed hitting genius & his staff can't get more out of their players than this. C'mon, 64 years? There have been worse lineups in 64 years.

The 2nd Wild Card: Giving false hope to pretenders and complicating the trading deadline since 2012.

GTown: Thanks for posting that - I've been trying to figure out how to look that up. I suspected the Phillies were historically bad in that category, but worst-on-record is remarkable.

Freddy Galvis - 75% = MVP.

2nd wild card could be the Phils' saving grace this year - not because we'll win it, but because it will convince more teams to be buyers at the deadline, which will drive up the price for sellers. Of course, if RAJ thinks we're buyers at the deadline, we're screwed.

I'm not on the trade Cole Hamels bandwagon. I don't see how trading away a star player for crap prospects makes the team better.

DH - "historically bad" and "worst-on-record" are a bit of a misnomer unless you have similar results for all possible 62 game sample sizes.

What is the likelihood that they will wind up historically bad by the end of the season - the reference point provided? I'd say fairly low. Then again, I thought that Werth's anti-RBI proclivities wouldn't turn out to be historically pathetic, and they turned out to be in the end.

I will add, however, that they would be producing at a rate that would prove historically low if it continued for the season, even while being pretty strong in BA and average in OBP, is certainly an indictment on their "situational hitting" skills.

With minimart on 2nd , and Pierre due up, and a LH on the mound

Why o why does UC leave John Peter in to bat .... What sense does that make?.

Posted by: Lets go eat

Juan Pierre career OBP vs. RHP: .340
Juan Pierre career OBP vs. LHP: .360

PPP once again pissing and moaning to make up for baseball IQ deficiencies.

"They are still only 5 games out of a wild card. That's how bad the NL is."

A more accurate statement would be: that's how hard it is to fall out of contention in just 2 months, in a system which has 2 Wild Cards.

The reality is, the NL is NOT weak this year. If anything, the WC contenders are stronger than in most years. If the season ended today, the NL WC teams would be Atlanta & SF, whose winning percentages are .567 and .557, respectively. Over 162 games, a .556 winning percentage will result in 90 wins -- which is exactly what St. Louis had last year. If they had used a 2 Wild Card system in past years, a 90-win season would have gotten you into at least a one-game playoff for the NL WC spot in every season since 2004. In most years, it would have gotten you directly into the playoffs without a one-game playoff.

Lake Fred: but we traded Cliff Lee for crap prospects and still went to the playoffs that year. How's the old commercial saw go, "past performance guarantees future results"?

That Gelb piece is embarrassing. Wow.

See? The National League doesn't suck! Only the Phillies!

I checked the LV website --- and saw Overbeck is a 3rd baseman... Thought he was 1st baseman

No team has the depth to survive the number of injuries the Phils have had. None. The team's been missing its #3 and #4 hitters all year, and Doc's essentially been out all season (replaced by a weakened version of himself for two months and now on the DL).

All things considered, we've been surprisingly competitive until the last week or so. The injuries to Galvis and Polanco gutted the infield defense, and losing Contreras left us without a single reliable RH reliever in front of Papelbon. None of those guys alone is mission-critical, but losing all three after all the other injuries is the straw that broke the camel's back.

It's looking like a lost season, but for a good GM, lost seasons are opportunities to rebuild. We'll find out soon whether Amaro is good at doing something other than simply spending gobs of cash. My fingers are crossed.

Posted by: ColonelTom | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 11:01 AM

This...not in a knee-jerk PPP kind of way but in a rational, able to see past your nose kind of way.

LGO: He started as a 3rd baseman, but he's basically a 1st baseman. He's a 3rd baseman in the same way that Ty Wigginton is a 3rd baseman.

Trading a star player for good prospects is a much better option than watching him walk out the door for virtually nothing.

If the season is lost, trading Hamels for the biggest return possible is imperative. You can't lose him as a FA for a crapshoot draft pick in what is projected to be an extremely weak draft class.

Why o why does UC leave John Peter in to bat .... What sense does that make?

None at all.

'12 vs. RHP .360 BA/.398 OBP/.420 SLG

'12 vs. LHP .133 BA/.161 OBP/.133 SLG

Not only does the NL suck this year, but they suck every year. And not only the NL: The AL sucks every year too. That has been the case every year since they instituted a WC, because coincidentally, each and every year a less-than-stellar team has been five games back in the WC race.

And not only do the NL and the AL suck, so do the Phillies' announcers.

And not only the Phillies' announcers - all baseball announcers. And not only all baseball announcers, all announcers in any sport.

And RAJ went to Stanford.

"'12 vs. RHP .360 BA/.398 OBP/.420 SLG

'12 vs. LHP .133 BA/.161 OBP/.133 SLG

Posted by: GTown_Dave"


Proving yet again, that for some folks, 1/3 year of data are a better sample size than 12 years of data.

Phlipper comedy attempt #1.

FAIL.

Folks,the problem is quite simply that the NL strike zone has shrunk and our pitchers are having to pitch out over the plate instead of in the "black" part of the plate as they typically have. As a result, instead of puchouts here and there, we end up serving up a double. When healthy, we have the offense to absorb those blows, however, in these circumstances these blows are no longer just body-punches, they are knockouts.

Proving yet again, that for some folks, 1/3 year of data are a better sample size than 12 years of data.

Posted by: Phlipper | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Dontcha know, 30AB in 2012 >>>>> 1800 career AB in PPP-land? Get with the program!

Folks,the problem is quite simply that the NL strike zone has shrunk and our pitchers are having to pitch out over the plate instead of in the "black" part of the plate as they typically have. As a result, instead of puchouts here and there, we end up serving up a double. When healthy, we have the offense to absorb those blows, however, in these circumstances these blows are no longer just body-punches, they are knockouts.

Posted by: Vin Scully Kalas Caray | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Yes, and Ty Wigginton is so distraught by this they he can't possibly field a ball cleanly. And the Nationals pitchers are paying off the umps, because they seem to be able to get by.

You hope teams who have windows on players and need that one pc or injury takes a top pitcher out. Look at what Texas got for mark t Feliz and andrus. You have to role dice and use this time to retool and rebuild. There is no way in hell cole stays. So why no move him To get someone who has a future and can help club in yr or two rather then four. Still think texas will be best partner. No way sox give up middlebrooks for rental,

Phlipper...if you don't like the tone of the blog then you can you know read other blogs.

Joe Savery 2012: Grim Reaper of Phillies games

Phillies are 0-14 in games where Joe makes an appearance.

Its hard to even be mad at this point--they're filling in for so many injuries now, its tough to expect them to do anything but suck when you look at who the players actually are.

The only thing I can really be mad about are the many very winnable games they let slip away early in the season when they largely had the whole team (except Howard, Utley, and Contreras) in tact. Starting strong and playing smarter in the early going might have put them in a position to withstand this latest rash of injuries, but nowadays, this is really not a good roster--so no surprise when they play like it.

Joe D, he's probably already on those blogs telling them how overly optimistic they are.

"Folks,the problem is quite simply that the NL strike zone has shrunk and our pitchers are having to pitch out over the plate instead of in the "black" part of the plate as they typically have."

As much as I think that argument suffers from applying a condition selectively to the Phillies in a way that is more than likely to suffer from confirmation bias - that actually does fit with how the season has felt to me.


An example was yesterday. I thought that Lee failed to get many calls he's gotten in the past - and that he was actually throwing pretty well. And it felt like he was somehow getting squeezed - but the fact is that the opposing starter gave up something like 5 walks, so it wasn't only Lee that was getting that treatment.

Somehow however, and I doubt this insight holds up to scrutiny, it does seem tom me like there have been a lot of games where the Phillies' pitchers just failed to get close calls that they've gotten in the past, and as a result wound up having to throw more hittable pitches. The only way that it seems to me that might add up is if the Phillies pitchers, as a group, have been somewhat more reliant on pin-point control as opposed to pure "stuff" like other good pitchers such as the rotation of the Nats.

Luna at 3rd base at LV had 6 errors...

Overbeck is listed as a 3rd baseman on the LV minor league
iPad app and on the LV website, as a 1st baseman.. But he has no
errors at all this year...( listed on the LV site).

But --- Luna - an improvement over Wiggy? I do not think so..

Joe D - I love the one at this blog. I get a chuckle from it on a regular basis - and your posts truly are among the funniest.

Its hard to even be mad at this point--they're filling in for so many injuries now, its tough to expect them to do anything but suck when you look at who the players actually are.

The only thing I can really be mad about are the many very winnable games they let slip away early in the season when they largely had the whole team (except Howard, Utley, and Contreras) in tact. Starting strong and playing smarter in the early going might have put them in a position to withstand this latest rash of injuries, but nowadays, this is really not a good roster--so no surprise when they play like it.

Posted by: timr
Of course I expect Mike Fontenot and Hector Luna to suck. I can't use that crutch for Cliff Lee blowing leads, Hamels doing the same.

These pitchers aren't getting squeezed. They are throwing balls off the plate and then not being able to beat hitters on the actual corners. There is a distinct difference. I love to rip on the umpires and blame them. They have been terrible this year but they haven't cost this team one game.

"Folks,the problem is quite simply that the NL strike zone has shrunk and our pitchers are having to pitch out over the plate instead of in the "black" part of the plate as they typically have."

As much as I think that argument suffers from applying a condition selectively to the Phillies in a way that is more than likely to suffer from confirmation bias - that actually does fit with how the season has felt to me.


An example was yesterday. I thought that Lee failed to get many calls he's gotten in the past - and that he was actually throwing pretty well. And it felt like he was somehow getting squeezed - but the fact is that the opposing starter gave up something like 5 walks, so it wasn't only Lee that was getting that treatment.

Somehow however, and I doubt this insight holds up to scrutiny, it does seem tom me like there have been a lot of games where the Phillies' pitchers just failed to get close calls that they've gotten in the past, and as a result wound up having to throw more hittable pitches. The only way that it seems to me that might add up is if the Phillies pitchers, as a group, have been somewhat more reliant on pin-point control as opposed to pure "stuff" like other good pitchers such as the rotation of the Nats.

Posted by: Phlipper | Monday, June 11, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Its the umpires' fault? OMG, I can't believe that Phlipper (despite his attempt to sound tepid in his agreement) would get behind this argument. Absolutely not the fault of the Phillies, but it's the umpires fault.

I feel incredibly peaceful now. I can offically skip all posts by Phlipper without even considering a word he has to say.

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