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Friday, June 08, 2012

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I kept saying that missing Nix was hurting them a ton, but i always prefaced that thought by mentioning that he's far from any type of savior.


And now....theres no way around it. Laynce Nix has to be a savior - and that means this team is in huge trouble.

If DITHL exists, then Tyler Cloyd sure looks like he's got it.

Nix is one of those little things that went wrong that's made a material difference. Mayberry and Wigginton starting together against right handers is far from optimal. If Nix falters in his rehab or on his return, the pressure to move Brown up will be irresistable.

I don't believe the Phillies feel any pressure to rush Brown along. Do you really think the front office sees a World Series in the future with this particular group? It ain't happening folks. Reload for 2013. Part of that process is to allow Brown to play out the string in Triple-A.

In fact, I get a sense the Phils feel obligated to slow down Brown's ascent. If he stays down the entire season and comes up in 2013, he's basically on the Howard/Utley path.

Best value in baseball is an older prospect. Look at what the Phils got out of Ruiz, Victorino. You could argue the Phils would have gotten max value from Howard had they not extended him.

Where is the fantasy free roll? Is that not happening anymore?

"Do you really think the front office sees a World Series in the future with this particular group?"

JW, I do, and that's my biggest fear: that the strategy is "hope" (saviors appear, performances spike upward for some random reason), the team finishes out of the money and mediocre, and we've gotten nothing back for Hamels and/or Victorino.

Nix? Come on now.
They need to call up D. Brown based on his ability and potential -- the high ceiling he possesses. We got to show this guy confidence and just let him play here in the majors. You put him out in LF (or RF and move iron hands to LF) and say go play. You will not be benched.

The Phils are making a big mistake with Brown. He looks like he gets bored easy and needs the challenge of the majors.

As for the Phillies themselves, we need to get some direction and start making hard decisions.. release Qualls, for one. Its plain to see that guy cannot pitch this year. And start looking to make trades and get the useless non high ceiling players out of the starting lineup and back on the bench. Lets start to build a team not just hope we survive until the injured guys get back...

the only problem with this is that there is now no reason to watch this team. a group of old guys playing .500 baseball? who cares.

i'd rather watch a losing season with young guys than a mediocre season with vets. i'm hoping they sell at the deadline, rather than try to apply more bandaids and miss the WC.

the only problem with this is that there is now no reason to watch this team. a group of old guys playing .500 baseball? who cares.

i'd rather watch a losing season with young guys than a mediocre season with vets. i'm hoping they sell at the deadline, rather than try to apply more bandaids and miss the WC.

Posted by: loctastic
yep

"Sell Mortimer! Sell!"

Even if the Phils do become sellers in a month (doubt they do), my bet is they only move 1 or 2 pieces like Vic or Blanton.

Problem is what does a Blanton get you for 2 months - a second-tier prospect at best. Maybe two fringe prospects.

Even Vic. Bourn didn't get the Astros a top tier prospect from the Braves. Instead they got a bench player in Schafer and a contingent of middle tier prospects.

Only thing they have of value to trade is Hamels. If they do, it takes brass balls because the fan base will turn on Amaro and this franchise. Guaranteed. Frankly, I would explore every option & if I can get a package that includes a stud prospect at 3B or CF who is ready to start next year that trade becomes a lot turner to turn down.

Listening to Rich Hoffman on the radio last night and he made a good point. Basically if Utley has had 4+ months now to strengthen the muscles in his knees and still isn't back, then he is essentially done at this point.

Basically the Phils are pretty hoping he can tolerate ~2 months of pain. Next year though is basically a crap shoot.

Ditto Howard. Said it didn't think Howard would start to look like Howard until at least July-August of next year & even then his days of being an elite power hitter are over. Basically a 25-30 HR guy max.

Hard to disagree with either assessment or prediction.

If there's one thing everybody will agree on, I think, it's that RAJ has brass ones. I have a bit of faith if he decides to sell, he'll sell big.

Only thing they have of value to trade is Hamels. If they do, it takes brass balls because the fan base will turn on Amaro and this franchise. Guaranteed.
------
You are talking about a guy who traded Lee the same day he got Halladay. I think that took some balls considering the love affair the city had with Lee. I want Hamels back but if they deal him and get what (on paper to start) looks like a good haul for holes they need to fill soon then I will absolutely be fine with and understand it. I also get that I'm in the minority though.

Phils have had seasons with younger players where they lost in the late 90s/early 00s and fans stayed away in droves.

Its bunk that fans (even Philly fans) will come out to support a bad team in large numbers. Probably get a better crowd than other cities but if this was 85-90 loss team my bet is you would average 20-25k at CBP over a season.

Listening to Rich Hoffman on the radio last night and he made a good point. Basically if Utley has had 4+ months now to strengthen the muscles in his knees and still isn't back, then he is essentially done at this point.

Basically the Phils are pretty hoping he can tolerate ~2 months of pain. Next year though is basically a crap shoot.

Ditto Howard. Said it didn't think Howard would start to look like Howard until at least July-August of next year & even then his days of being an elite power hitter are over. Basically a 25-30 HR guy max.

Hard to disagree with either assessment or prediction.

Posted by: MG

Yeah that all seems to be common sense to me. For some people though, they don't want to hear it.

"If they (trade Hamels)...the fan base will turn on Amaro and this franchise."

I disagree, and also don't believe that trading Hamels for current and/or future parts is synonymous with raising a white flag for 2012.

Trading Hamels isn't raising a white flag for 2012?

All you are missing is 'Taps' a bugler.

Season over.

Its just not our year.

I don't see any viable way the Phils can "reload for 2013" unless you're talking about trading Hamels and Victorino...I doubt Hamilton leaves Texas, and he's the only real "impact bat" that will be on the market. Do people really think Carlos Quentin or Andre Ethier are the answer for this offense? Taking the money that would go to Hamels and investing it in the offense doesn't really accomplish a whole lot with the players that will be available.

fairweather fans don't know what they want, other than winning. if you make your moves based on keeping them around for the short term, i don't think that'll be sustainable for the long term.


If you are looking for a "stud" 3b prospect on a team that would want Hamels for the stretch run, you are probably looking at Texas with Olt. I don't see Cleveland moving Chisenhall for a 3 month rental. Chisen hall is more above average than stud. Colorado & AZ have interesting 3b prospects but their records are worse than ours. Detroit might like Hamels, but I don't know if they'd part with Castellanos or not. 3b has been going through a lull recently of good players. You might be able to get Schoop from Baltimore but he's in the Chisenhall-might be above average category. Best bet for a "haul" is Texas, and they might not feel they need Hamels.

That so many are having such a nostalgic love affair w/ the injured Laynce Nix is as clear of an indictment of the state of this team as anything.

That so many are having such a nostalgic love affair w/ the injured Laynce Nix is as clear of an indictment of the state of this team as anything.

Posted by: GTown_Dave

I agree. It's a sad state of affairs.

Chris in VT: I'd like Quentin if he didn't get hurt and miss 40 games every year...of course you could say the same thing about Hamilton.

Almost as sad as being pleased because Fontenot's due up this inning.

"Nixington" combo would have been a good bench players, as they were meant to be. As starters, they're probably in the lower 25 pct of the National League. This includes fielding too (Wigginton is a butcher). Nix has more to offer overall, but he's still meh..

Ahh...Chisenhall, the guy we could have drafted instead of Hewitt in 2008.

Good thing we when for tools that year in the 1st round.

The combo of long, fat contracts to aging players, a depleted farm, and the concomitant need to fill out the rest of the roster with drek, has caught up with the Phils this year. Nothing really surprising here.

Listening to Rich Hoffman on the radio last night and he made a good point. Basically if Utley has had 4+ months now to strengthen the muscles in his knees and still isn't back, then he is essentially done at this point.

Basically the Phils are pretty hoping he can tolerate ~2 months of pain. Next year though is basically a crap shoot.

Ditto Howard. Said it didn't think Howard would start to look like Howard until at least July-August of next year & even then his days of being an elite power hitter are over. Basically a 25-30 HR guy max.
--------------
Hard to disagree with either assessment or prediction.
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I am pretty sure any fan that has some common sense figured this out a while ago too. It is just the 'org does no wrong' fans and the mathletes that are buried in the numbers.

re: lack of internal relief options. Are we just not drafting the big arms that other teams take a shot on. Seems like everytime I read about a Phillies pitching prospect he's a control guy who sits 88-90 but can dial it up to 92. Where are all the guys who sit 95-97 and dial it up to 99? Other teams seem to get those guys in the system every couple of years. A lot of these guys on other teams are converted outfielders and catchers too. Sean Doolittle (former 1b) who just came up with the A's is an example Kenley Jansen is another converted guy (former catcher) who throws gas.

JBird - like Diekman? he hits 97.

is getting Olt for Hamels anywhere near reality? he's got an 1.045 OPS this year so far. sounds delightful.

Hamels would get us Olt...particularly given that this is the Rangers best chance at a WS as Hamilton will likely be gone next year and they really need a true Ace to carry them.

He would get us Olt and probably some other lesser pieces.

Locastic- plus he can take a walk-- something our guys are allergic to ..311 avg, 18 HR in 209 AB, OBP of .413

If the Lee trade is any indication, Rube will decline Olt in favor a real gem playing A ball for Texas.

Olt will be on an MLB roster next year...it'd be nice if it were ours as he is a future star.

make it happen, rube.

Better run:
Eagles 4 straight NFC Cahmpionship w/ 1 SB appearance

or

Phils: 5 Straight Division titles 2 straight WS and 1 title?

Discuss?

Fire sales are usually accompanied by the firing of coach and/or GM within a reasonable timespan. Can this be stopped by not having the fire sale or is this a chicken/egg thing?

The more important question: Did Ed or Pat ever inform RAj of the answer?

***Discuss?***

How is that even a question? A championship is a championship is a championship. Not that Eagles fans would be familiar with that concept given their history.


loctastic: Texas has Beltre blocking him at 3rd for the next couple years and the have Christian Villanueva behind him (not having a great season, but Myrtle beach is an extreme pitchers park). They also drafted a 3b (Joey Gallo) in the supplemental round this year (1 spot ahead of the Phils' 1st pick which bummed out a lot of people on phuture phillies). However, they might move Olt to 1st and get rid of Mitch Moreland instead. Who knows. But, Texas is deep enough to move Olt and not have it blow up their long term plans. And, Olt has some strikeout issues and he's a little on the old side for an uber-prospect that makes him a less than sure thing to be an all-star. His teammate Profar who is an uber-prospect is 5 years younger. So, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities that Texas could move him if they felt they could use a pitcher like Hamels to finally seal the deal on a WFC.

***However, they might move Olt to 1st and get rid of Mitch Moreland instead. ***

Olt is a good enough defender that that would be silly for them to do.

For the record, I think this talk of selling is woefully premature. You don't sell because of a prediction that you're going to fall out of contention. You sell when you actually fall out of contention.

If we were to sell, however, I do not see why it is so imperative that we limit our shopping list to 3rd basemen. We also need at least 2 outfielders next year, and 3 by 2014. Plus we'll need a starting 2nd baseman by 2014, if not sooner. And, for that matter, Chooch is heading into his walk year in 2012, by which time he'll be 34. So, you can also add catcher to the list of long/middle-term needs.

A little off topic, but the Braves have already signed their first 6 picks in the draft. Just wondering if this is an aggressive management style or a coincidence w/ regards to slot. Seems it's very dilligent, at the very least.

OT but Ill have Another is OUT at the Belmont stakes

Olt might K a lot but it also seems like he walks a lot. A college 3B with power and a decent amount of walks? sounds like Pat Burrell 2.0

NEPP: better than Beltre though? If that were the case than maybe you move Beltre to 1st since he's had leg problems the last 2 seasons.

Typo in the last post: Chooch's walk year is 2013.

Beltre is probably still a better defender.

Olt has a high K rate but he also has massive power so its not that unusual.

Also, its far, far harder to get a 3B than an OF so if you trade, look for positional scarcity.

BAP - no moves are going to be made until we're near the deadline, sure. but it doesn't hurt to talk about it. unless you want to talk about the vaunted wigginton / rollins / fontenot / mayberry infield some more? ick.

bap: I'd rather the Phillies compete, I'm just spitballing if they decide to trade, what would be a good get. All things being equal if the choice is trade Hamels for Olt or for Mike Trout, then you trade for Mike Trout. But Olt is a good player in his own right and is probably on par or better than a lot of the outfield prospects who might be available. Jean Segura would be a good, non-3b pickup for the Phillies. The Angels have him blocked when they signed Aybar to a long term deal. d'Arnaud from Toronto, obviously. It's not a long list of teams that are in contention and have a piece that is both super-valuable, close to the majors, and possibly extraneous for the big club.

another point - the nice thing about 2 WC spots is everybody thinks they're in it. if they do decide to sell, i would imagine you'd have lots of buyers to work with and get a bit more back.

Oscar Tevaras or Shelby Miller from St. Louise, but they might not be available.

Triple Crown scratch is devastating, because now I have to watch the Phillies.

All this trade talk distracts from the pain of the current losing streak, but I would like to mention, they are only 5 games out of a wild card. . . . . Phillies are one of those teams on the cusp, ie trade May, Brown, and James/Pettibone for Quentin and a bullpen arm like Matt Capps (really should have grabbed Frieri when he was available) and this team is right back in contention, in my opinion.

another point - the nice thing about 2 WC spots is everybody thinks they're in it. if they do decide to sell, i would imagine you'd have lots of buyers to work with and get a bit more back.

Posted by: loctastic

That's an interesting point and a good one. More suitors will cause for a better haul.

Guys, the NL SUCKS. I'm holding out hope strictly because there is so much garbage in this league. If theres a year to play like crap and still have a shot, this year looks like it.

When you sell to get prospects, it is similar to the draft. You get the best players you possibly can.

Position comes into it when you're choosing among guys you like evenly, but trading stars for prospects who fill positional needs for you, if they're lesser players, is a really bad way to rebuild.

***trade May, Brown, and James/Pettibone for Quentin***

Does Rube have to be raped as well as the team in that deal? That's a terribly one-sided deal to even think about making.

NEPP: I wouldn't object

Jack: we aren't rebuilding, we are reloading. . . . .or maybe not

You watch the teams with the best records in the league like LA or the Nats and want to give up on this season?

Seems like all the fans on BeerleaguerDC or BeerleaguerLA will write retrospectives in October how they knew all along their team was fatally flawed from day one...

Too bad the Padres suck, because Hamels won't interest them. Headley is blocking Jedd Gyorko who's hitting .366 with a 1.073 OPS at AAA. He's 24 but he's been terrific at every level. Maybe a young arm or two would get either one.

"Phillies are one of those teams on the cusp, ie trade May, Brown, and James/Pettibone for Quentin and a bullpen arm like Matt Capps (really should have grabbed Frieri when he was available) and this team is right back in contention"

that's my worst nightmare

By the way, I'm going to tonight's game in Balt-i-more against the 1st place O's. I was more than a little disappointed when I discovered it was Joey Bag o'Donuts pitching

Actually Gyorko won't turn 24 till Sept.

oogie: I think they've moved Gyorko to 2nd.

If its one thing I know, its that trading top prospects for Matt Capps is always a good idea.

I really do hate trading prospects for bullpen arms. They are always overpriced at the deadline. I was just saying what they'd need to contend, a solid 8th/7th inning guy, and I picked someone off a bad team.

Is Adam Jones in the lineup or hurt?

locstatic: "no moves are going to be made until we're near the deadline, sure. but it doesn't hurt to talk about it."

Sure. It's fine as a discussion topic -- so long as people acknowledge that it rests on a highly hypothetical (and, frankly, somewhat improbable) premise that the last 6 games are a better predictor of our future play than the first 53. But most of the posters here don't seem to be talking in hypothetical terms. They seem to think it is an accomplished fact that we will inevitably fall out of playoff contention -- though, only a week ago, we were but 1 game out of the WC, with the exact same roster.

I don't know. He played last night. Sorta

Bullpen pieces are best groomed in-house. Unfortunately this team has a bunch of stiffs.

Triple Crown scratch is devastating, because now I have to watch the Phillies.

Fuuuuuuuuu ...

BAP: The Voice of Optimism. I still think they can contend. I don't know that they can do it with the roster as it is currently constructed though.

"Sure. It's fine as a discussion topic -- so long as people acknowledge that it rests on a highly hypothetical (and, frankly, somewhat improbable) premise that the last 6 games are a better predictor of our future play than the first 53."

for me, this discussion rests on the fact that this team is a .500 ballclub on the season and will likely remain so, since halladay and howard likely won't be back until after the ASG (howard if at all). utley might be back by then but i'm less optimistic about it than i was at the beginning of the year.

so it's not just the 6 game losing streak, it's the whole season.

if this group of guys turns it around by the deadline, i'll be surprised, and you can rightly chide me for having no faith. though i feel like i'm right, based on the lineups we've been seeing.

"I still think they can contend. I don't know that they can do it with the roster as it is currently constructed though."

Yeah, I think this has been patently obvious for a while, right? I mean, even the optimistic posters on here (which I include myself in, by the way, as I've repeatedly said I still think they can win and I predicted them to win the division this year) are optimistic only on the assumption that the roster adds guys currently injured and/or players from outside the organization.

Right? No one in their right mind thinks this current 25-man roster could make the playoffs, right?

JBird- Do you think Gyorko at 2nd is a permanent thing and Forsythe is a stop-gap there? If they go with youth, maybe Headley is available. ahahah @NEPP

Bap the thirdbase free agent market will be nothing. Plenty of outfielders to make moves on. Upton Bourne Hamilton Vic swish Quentin etc... So third base is priority if u move Cole. Texas system loaded. You might be able to get two depending on Texas. They are starting to lose and starters are going down. Three starters already on DL. Hope for philles to turn it around, but if not get something for your best chip.

lorecore--He has wrist soreness. out for a couple of days I think.

I'm quite confident that they can't contend with their current roster. They need Halladay, Utley and Howard to come back and provide some sort of relief. Halladay should be fine once he returns, but Howard and Utley are big question marks. If the Phillies are 8 games back in the loss column at the trade deadline, and Howard/Utley have yet to return, and Doc is still a couple weeks away, it's a big decision to make as to whether you think the season's lost or not, because they need those guys to play well to gain that ground, but w/out knowing what they'll look like, it's a tough, tough call to make.

Joe D. The sad part of that is Aumont and DeFratus were featured prominently in Phillies' prospect rankings and Schwimmer wasn't far behind.

Sorry lorecore just looked it up. Adam Jones played last night, so the soreness was minor.

Oogie: I haven't read anything about Gyorko's fielding, so I don't know. San Diego lacks for hitting though, so my concern would be that they'd move him to the outfield before moving him out of the Organization. Plus, they aren't in contention so they have little reason to move a prospect before they move Headley.

Joe D. The sad part of that is Aumont and DeFratus were featured prominently in Phillies' prospect rankings and Schwimmer wasn't far behind.

Posted by: Jbird

Oh I know. We are seeing how that is working out with Schwimmer. The jury is still out (well not really on Aumont for me anyway) on the other two.

Don't want to ruin Brown's self esteem,fine leave him to succeed at LV. Need and OFer,fine his name is Susdorf,Why trad e the farm for prospects when you don't give the ones you have a chance.
Example: no need for a 2nd baseman in 2014,he's already in the system.I'll not spoil your lack of knowledge by giving his name.

Don't trade anymore of the few quality pieces we have on the pharm.

The Pence deal still is a pisser. We gave up too much for the return.

Thinking that Singleton is tearing up the minors right now & in a couple (?) yrs probably will hit the majors like Mike G. Stanton... by that time Howard will probably need to be DH, and Utley will be retired or working on a new extension from Amaro.

Cosart maybe or already is promoted to AAA this year..

--- and while we're at it ----
RAJ really outdid himself with Lee, Trading him away & then finding out he needed another arm. So we had to dig into the pharm system and send out more prospects to get Oswalt. If he never traded Lee, no need for Oswalt trade...

Fats: But Utley hit a homerun in an extended spring training at bat! all is well!

I like Aumont's future as reliever, altho moving him to the pen was supposed to clear up his health problems and he still has missed time, so not a great sign.

let's go eat: what prospects did we give up in the Oswalt trade that could help the team this season?

let's go eat: the rebuttal to that is, we don't have any Singletons left in the system. I don't think the Phils should trade Biddle. But May I think should be available for the right every day player (not a bullpen arm). It'll be interesting to see what the team has gotten out of the last 2 drafts once short-season ball starts. The last 2 drafts have been well regarded even if they didn't get 1st rd picks.

"If he never traded Lee, no need for Oswalt trade..."

BUT I HAD TO RESTOCK THE CUPBOARD!

i'm not going to complain about the moves RAJ made in the past because he was trying to keep the run going. i wasn't a fan of the Pence trade but i got why it happened and Pence did complement the lineup well.

Don't worry, Aumont will be moved back and forth between roles for a few years with this organization.

Ice - I was talking about Amaro's past couple experiences with the Once-Wade-astros - and why we should take a break before raiding the pharm again.

JBird: "BAP: The Voice of Optimism."

Not really. How can anyone be optimistic about this team right now? I'm simply saying: what I think is going to happen is neither here nor there. You sell only if you actually fall out of contention, in a mathematical sense. I don't know how far behind you have to be to make that call, but I know that 5 games, with 103 left, is not enough.

And please, let's not hear any of this stuff about "Winning the WC is not a meaningful goal." The goal is to get in. Anyone who believes that playoff outcomes follow a predictable pattern is someone who does not follow baseball very closely.

BAP: I agree with all of that. But I think if the Hometown 9 want to contend, they need to start looking around and acquiring some help.

JBird: You have to wait to see if Howard/Utley can come back and be effective before you go seeking outside help. If they can't, then there's no point in trading away any more assets for help.

We don't have good enough assets to trade for guys who actually would make a big enough impact. If Utley/Howard can't come back, trading for a second-tier guy isn't going to make a difference. This team ain't going to the playoffs either way.

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