Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Phillies sign ex-Met Pridie, assign him to Triple-A | Main | In progress: Phillies try to rebound in Toronto »

Friday, June 15, 2012

Comments

All I know is that every single time they bring in Savery/Schwimer/Rosenberg to pitch in a tie game on the road, I'm saying to myself, "Man, I sure wish they'd signed a closer like Nathan or Broxton for less money on a short contract instead of going out and getting the best relief pitcher in the game and not having enough money to sign another veteran reliever."

Drabek needs another Tommy John surgery? If so, his career is effectively over.

Buddy - If they had signed a mediocre closer, they might have had a few more blown saves and a few more dollars to sign another mediocre reliever - resulting in fewer losses than we get from throwing a Savery or a Diekman in there.

It's possible. Of course, they might have signed two mediocre pitchers only to watch one of them blow up completely, have their arm fall off, etc.

I'm basically observing that some folks are just have a reflexive proclivity to be overly negative, and accordingly, fail to look at both sides of the issue.

In the meantime, having been a fan of the team when they were perennially horrible, I have a hard time getting worked up about the team spending someone else's money to sign the top reliever in the game, and a fun pitcher to watch (provided I can stay awake between pitches).

Sucks for Drabek, & the Jays. Of course Halladay's on the DL right now, & Toronto is closer to leading their division than the Phillies are to leading the NL East. Kinda dampens the excitement.

TAKE OFF, TO THE GREAT WHITE NORTH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BFPt001PYU

"All I know is that every single time they bring in Savery/Schwimer/Rosenberg to pitch in a tie game on the road, I'm saying to myself, "Man, I sure wish they'd signed a closer like Nathan or Broxton for less money on a short contract instead of going out and getting the best relief pitcher in the game and not having enough money to sign another veteran reliever."

Nice cherry-pick there, MG - in terms of which relievers you imply they should have signed otherwise. Paps was pretty much a sure thing - each of those was much more of a gamble, and there are others who could have been on the list that haven't panned out.

So they might have had Broxton and some other fairly good reliever (both of whom may or may not pan out, may or may not sustain an injury as so many pitchers do) instead of a much solid lock as one of the best in the game and some dreck (I'm not sure that you'd eliminate the use of all three with one additional veteran reliever).

The issue of maximizing "high leverage" situations makes some sense to me. Having a proclivity to be overly negative about Paps' contract, less so.

Here's something for you to consider, lorecore, as clearly it's an idea that's never occurred to you before.

The vast majority of variability that we see in limited sample sizes of how players perform at various times throughout the season is explainable by normal patterns in the distribution of events.

When someone says that someone isn't going good "right now," chances are that they are attributing a random pattern distribution to some factor for which there is no actual evidential support.

Of course, there could be an actual reason why Ruiz was getting more hits a while ago, stopped for a while, and then picked it up again. If you had some evidence of % of hard-hit balls during those periods, then you might have the beginning of supporting evidence, but even there the difference in prevalence of line drives could also very likely just be a product of random distribution patterns.

On thing you can know for sure is that the vast majority of times that people try to explain why a player is going good "right now" or bad "right now," they're just seeing what they want to see.

Of course, the professionals in the game know that, for the most part. That's why they take the long-term view. The players themselves also likely often over-attribute random distribution to fairly arbitrary explanations such as "seeing the ball well," but even though they probably do so to some extent, at least they actually know something about what they're talking about when they offer some kind of an explanation for the variability in their performances. But watch how Charlie has patience and waits things out before reaching hasty conclusions. You might learn something from that.

Posted by: Phlipper | Friday, June 15, 2012 at 05:07 PM

All I know is that every single time they bring in Paps to close out a game, I'm saying to myself, "Man, I sure wish they'd signed a mediocre closer for less money on a short contract instead of going out and getting the best relief pitcher in the game."

Posted by: Phlipper | Friday, June 15, 2012 at 05:57 PM

You're clearly capable of reasonable, rational posts, as evidenced by the one at 5:07 and a couple of discussions I've had with you over the past week or so. Why, then, are 90% of the posts under your name stupid nonsense like your 5:57 post?

"Why, then, are 90% of the posts under your name stupid nonsense like your 5:57 post?"

Someone stealing my handle?

Toronto is an awesome city. Going there for a wedding this fall and definitely wouldn't have minded going up there for a visit to my friend and catching a Phils' game.

Caught a game at the Hard Rock at the Skydome many, many moons ago. Seemed awesome then but I am sure I wouldn't find it so awesome nowadays.

Here's the stat I want to know:

Before the concept of the closer came along in the 70s and 80s, what was the average winning percentage of teams which entered the final inning with 1-run, 2-run, and 3-run leads? And what str the average winning percentage in those situations over, say, the last 20 years?

I was hoping for another night in the Twin Cities and maybe some Replacements or Husker Du posts. But, McKenzies will do.

Quit horking all the beer, eh.

And, in case it isn't obvious from ther mere fact of my asking the question, my bet is that the answers would come out close to the same.

And, no, I'm not pining for the Real McKenzies. Lead singer for that band drinks more than the guy who sings in the Pogues.

b_a_p - that is the question. I haven't a clue how to answer it. One thing interleague play shows you, though, is that relievers don't need to go 1 inning or less. It seems one of the truisms of modern bullpen usage is that, in addition to having a "defined role", pitchers aren't used more than an inning in the NL because it has a cascading effect on availability and performance. I think there's ample room for debate on these issues (and even phlipper has contributed to it) but, at the end of the day, it seems like bullpen composition and usage has evolved based on factors geared toward reducing managerial discretion.

(now they're droppin like flies, all those old punk rock guys)

Phils win 6-4

Rollins has a day, missing the cycle by a triple, driving in 3 including the game winner. Bullpen hangs on to get to Papelbon for a 1-2-3 save.

Let's go Phils!

b_a_p: you want this

http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/ScoringPattern.pdf.

"Conclusions
• Home teams score more in each of first 8 innings
• Visiting teams score more in each extra inning
• An early lead early is very valuable
• The advent of the closer has not changed late inning success
• Coming from behind and winning in last AB only moderately important
• The most successful teams get the lead and keep it
• Total scoring is by far the best predictor of overall success"

"• An early lead early is very valuable "

Someone tell the Phillies starters

Toronto really isn't that 'Canadian' though. It's basically an American city for all intents.

Ottawa is definitely a 'Canadian' city. Montreal and especially Quebec are definitely like going to a different country.

• "Total scoring is by far the best predictor of overall success"

Madden or Sarge point - If the two teams are scoring alot, you want to the one scoring more often!

Greg: I just get an error message when I hit that link.

Might as well commence to bitchin':

Rollins (SS), Pierre (LF), Pence (RF), Thome (DH), Victorino (CF), Ruiz (C), Wigginton (1B), Fontenot (3B), Martinez (2B). Worley (P).

What the hell? See, this is the kind of thing what annoys me about Charlie. Toronto's bringing a RH starter, but said starter has almost exactly equal splits vs. RHB & LHB. So why isn't Polanco, who's batting .291 vs. RH pitchers anyway, starting? Is he still hurt? Now friggin' Martinez is in the game (AGAIN), & he's useless. And why do I just know Victorio is going to be batting from the LH side, even though he's also been better facing RHP as a RHB?

bap: there's an erroneous period at the end, sorry.

http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/ScoringPattern.pdf

I hate this city.

So much for my carefully crafted hatin' on the lineup. Phils are death to opposing pitchers this road trip.

Greg: Thanks. Too long to read while the game is going on, though. I'll definitely look at it later.

T=Mac once again has to mention what a great Batting practice exhibition Hunter Pence put on. DEAR MR.McCARTHY....SO F'ING WHAT!!!!

I'm surprised KK was able to smuggle his voodoo doll thru customs.

I really hate domes,I really hate fake grass. and I REALLY hate domes with fake grass!
If those crazy Canucks start with the Vuvuzelas like the Expos fan's used to... I'm watching a movie!

"So much for my carefully crafted hatin' on the lineup."

Let me just reassure you that your time was not wasted. Hatin' on a lineup which includes Mini-Mart is never inappropriate.

None of the catchers on the Blue Jays stand taller than 6 feet in height. I find that very disappointing.

"If those crazy Canucks start with the Vuvuzelas like the Expos fan's used to..."

That sounds dirty.

Here's another question B.A.P. In light of the fact the human arm has not undergone any evolutionary changes in the last 40 years,when did we adopt the idea it get's stronger through less usage. When did 100 pitches become the benchmark number? When did a guy that pitches 200+ innings become an "Innings Eater".Were guys like Robin Roberts,Bob Gibson,Tom Seaver,Bob Feller,Jim Plamer etc. Physical Freaks? because they'd laugh at those statistics!

Always loved that "Plamer guy" lol!

Gee, thanks for that Comcast. F*ckin' dopes. As if we'd forgotten.

Love that you have the scorching hot Ruiz batting sixth in front of maybe the worst 7-8-9 ever assembled.

Love that you have the scorching hot Ruiz batting sixth in front of maybe the worst 7-8-9 ever assembled.

Posted by: Iceman | Friday, June 15, 2012 at 07:39 PM

Exactly. Horrible.

As if it wasn't bizarre enough that Mini-Mart managed to stay on the active roster for all 162 games last year, the fact that he has returned from the DL, and immediately leap-frogged a .741 career OPS player on the 2nd base depth chart, is even more bizarre.

Still bitching about the pap signing! Wow guys give it up.

In an interview with Tom Seaver this year,MLB.COM asked him if he was ever on a pitch count?He answered that he always was on a pitch count...135!

Hmm, Salisbury says Utley played 4 innings at 2B today. Sounds good.

Did Hutchison get hurt?

I suppose Martinez's career .538 OPS is simply too intimidating for the bench.

Wheels still has nightmares of me cracking one off the mullet man himself and me jumping around the bases. I own this city.

MG-- Yeah, the classic "elbow soreness"

Also, I hadn't heard this.

"Bastardo banged up
Reliever Antonio Bastardo needed several stitches to close a gash on his forehead, the result of a weight-room accident Wednesday night in Minnesota. Bastardo apparently was frustrated with his performance that night and took it out on a piece of equipment, which, in turn, took it out on him. Bastardo is available to pitch."

BAP- don't worry, your boy Fontenot's big bat is still in the lineup.

Franzke said Utley played 4 inn. at 2B today, not 1.

And Howard had 2 HR and a "double" w/o running the bases.

I'm second in line on owning this city.

MLB refuses to overturn hit and grant Mets pitcher a No-Hitter.If they had done that then Armando Gallaraga would have to immediately be given credit for a Perfect Game.

Lance: MLB would also be obligated to remove Santana's faux-hitter from the record books.

How are fans not more locked in w/ realizing how truly awful Victorino has been? Each & every AB is soul-crushingly bad.

I love what Vic has done for the Phils and appreciate his contributions to the team's success over the past several years.

That said, I'll be glad when someone else is paying him to be a "middle of the order" bat next year.

Sadly, I agree with you, Iceman.

Lance: It's slightly different than the Galarraga or Santana situation. Those were blown calls by the umpire and, unless MLB decides that a rule was misapplied (like the George Brett pine tar situation), there's absolutely no precedent for overturning an ump's on-the-field call a day after the fact.

The David Wright play, on the other hand, was an official scorer's decision, and those do get changed after-the-fact from time to time. But I doubt a decision has ever been changed after-the-fact in order to award a pitcher a no-hitter. Besides, my recollection of the play is that it was properly ruled a hit.

If Pence read that better, I feel like he could have caught it. The run was gonna score no matter what. Would have liked to see him attempt to catch that ball.

b_a_p just lawyered all over us, & it will take forever to wash off. Even so, he is correct. Reluctant thanks for the elucidation.

I think Wigginton just likes being on TV.

Yes B.A.P.,I agree with you.In a perfect world, Gallarga would have his perfect game and The Mets would still be pursuing their First ever no-hitter!

"b_a_p just lawyered all over us, & it will take forever to wash off."

Trust me, when you go to peform your pre-bedtime ablutions, the stench of lawyer will wash off much easier than the stench of watching Mini-Mart in the starting lineup.

Who was the last corner Outfielder on the Phillies that could go back and catch a ball up against the wall? Milt Thompson Maybe?

b_a_p: This is undoubtedly true. What is it, 6 games & counting? Charlie's gettin' dumber by the day.

As of the last half inning,This is in the running for most boring game of the year.With an assist going to this boring ass ballpark.


Who was the last corner Outfielder on the Phillies that could go back and catch a ball up against the wall? Milt Thompson Maybe?

Posted by: Lance Phillips |

Jason Michaels.

"Trust me, when you go to peform your pre-bedtime ablutions"

How old are you, BAP? I can't imagine anyone under, say, 30 knowing what ablutions are, much less using the word in a sentence.

Yeah. No need to have Polanco in the lineup.

Seems like it's going to be one of those insurmountable 2-run leads.

Oh brother. Given what happens in his absence, Polanco is proving to be the most valuable .600 OPS player in the history of organized baseball.

I don't know what the hell is going on with Fontenot. Looking at his fielding numbers from previous years, he looks pretty average, at least in terms of errors. This is ridiculous.

Bake: Old enough to remember not only the 1980 World Series, but also the 3 pathetic NL Championship series in 1976 through 1978.

Any reason we aren't playing the infield in there?

Hey, Fontenot. I hate your face.

In his career, Fontenot has 22 errors in 223 starts at 2nd base and 6 errors in 51 starts at 3rd base. Errors aren't everything, but those are pretty average numbers, I think.

You'd think the Phillies might be somewhat inspired after finally putting together a couple of wins in this godawful season. Yet, they are playing tonight's game like they just got back from a team-wide lobotomy.

I'm hard pressed to think of a position player in recent memory more clueless at the plate than Michael Martinez.

Former ex-Met reject Wilson Valdez playing CF and batting 2nd for the first place Reds tonight.

That's a J-Roll double there.

Or they're playing like they played a night game in the Central time zone one night and then had to play the next night in Canada.

If he could learn how to place those pop-ups as precisely as he did right there, then we might be on to something.

J-Roll finally makes some strides at the plate just as the rest of the team sinks into putrefaction. Typical of this season.

"J-Roll finally makes some strides at the plate just as the rest of the team sinks into putrefaction. "


Yeah. And here I didn't think the offense could sink any lower after that Minnesota series. What did they average, something putrid like 7+ runs per game?

Pence is the Hulk except he isn't green. Mindless brute who swings hard often.

According to radio, they didn't get to the hotel til 4 A.M.

"Make Plans For A Fun Summer Outing!" commands the Phillies commercial.

People are & have been doing so. Which is why tickets are available.

And Worley did not fly ahead.

EastFallowfield....Air miles Minneapolis to Montreal= A staggering 687 miles.

Phils tonight so: Effort is to Nebraska: _____

Guys, relax. Pitcher's just got it working. Just gotta get his pitch count up and he'll be out of the game. Then we'll get to the bullpen.


Oh.....

How can a team that scored 22 runs in 3 games look so offensively inept so soon?

This is one of the few times this year where I would question the Phils' intensity and concentration. Not there at the plate or in the field.

WHAT'S WRONG WITH CHOOCH??

Hey, Chooch is injured! This season is so awesome!

K out the side

Wonderful,!!!!

Defense went on va cay

The bats are still in minnesota

Phil's brought their toothpick to CA

P. Wiggly, Fontenot, Martinez coming to bat.

The Three Horsemen of the, er, Something.

Waiting for a swarm of locusts to appear at a CBP game at some point this season and swarm several Phils while they are in the field & cause a few to the DL.

Bake: Ohcrapalypse.

I would rather watch them blow another lead than this crap.

Feels like 10-0 right now.

"I would rather watch them blow another lead than this crap."

The good news is that, before this series is over, you'll very likely get to see both.

I like a home plate umpire that consistently gives pitchers the corners. I think Mike Everett has done a good job tonight.

"Bake: Ohcrapalypse."

Just as the Mayans predicted.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG