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Monday, June 25, 2012

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When you look at the balls Vic is putting into play (popping up) from the left side of the plate I'm not sure he's a good bet to improve.

Well you don't want to sell anyone on a decent contract for peanuts. But the way this season is playing out if they could get a decent return, why not?

He's not going to get a decent return. And didn't he always pop out?

I don't really see what direction you go in center field. Definitely nothing internal. Nothing there.

Yes, Victorino is likely to improve.

I already pressed the "Self Destruct" button. That starts with giving Victorino a hearty handshake and tell him thanks for the time and sending him elsewhere for a grab bag of B-level prospects.

from the last thread--

Bubba: i like to think that our "malady" is more like oscar wilde's description of second marraiges as "the triumph of hope over experience," than it is einstein's definition of insanity.

What about that finger injury for which he had a cortisone shot back on June 1? Didn't he admit back then that it was affecting his left-handed hitting? Maybe this is still a lingering problem...

By the way, I find it funny how many people are "ready to give up on Victorino" and say things about how they're tired of him. Reminds me of people trashing Werth when he left.

The guy was picked up on Rule 5 waivers for nothing, and has provided us with 4+ seasons of above-average CF production, and a year and a half before that of good RF production as well, all for below-market salaries.

I don't care if the guy goes 0 for the rest of the season--he's been one of the core Phillies during arguably the greatest stretch in team history. Hard for me to have any ill will towards him--in fact, hard for me to have any ill will towards any of those guys, with the possible exception of Myers, but just because I tend to have a personality problem with guys who physically abuse their wives. I give Howard a lot of crap, but the ill will is far more directed towards the front office for giving out a terrible contract than it is towards Howard. I'll always appreciate what he and the rest of these guys gave us as fans.

His career BABIP is .296, so he's about 35-40 points below.

But then take a look at his linedrive%... career 18.3% is now down to 14.6%. I think the rule of thumb is .110 + (LD%*10) = xBABIP

So you've got .110 + (18.3 * 10) = .293 for xBABIP with his actual BABIP being .296, pretty accurate.

So for this season, you get .110 + (14.6 * 10) = .256 xBABIP with an actual .259 BABIP.

Or basically... hes gotten what he deserves.

In looking at his statistics, I don't see anything that is really jumping off the page as a huge red flag. I have to agree with JW in this case and say the low average is due to BABIP variation.

Victorino has transformed from a line drive hitter when he first came up to a fly ball hitter, and this trend continues this year as his LD% is at a career low 14.6%. The good news is the flyballs are still leaving the yard a decent rate, so some BABIP variation in the other direction should make his season ending statistics look very Victorino-ish.

For what it's worth, ZIPS has Victorino finishing the season at basically what he did last year (sans average and some runs scored).

Iorecore: Just because his BABIP lines up with his xBABIP doesn't mean it isn't likely to improve.

Basically, what makes you think that all of a sudden Victorino is a 14% LD hitter, after many years of being an 18% LD hitter?

Point is, even if it's not "bad luck," it's still a slump. And good hitters tend to come out of slumps.

This will be an interesting series. From a run differential perspective, the Pirates and Phillies are evenly matched.

Before the ASB, they have 4 vs. PIT, 3 @ MIA, 3 @ NYM, and 3 vs. ATL. I think they'll need something like 9-4 in this stretch to be within striking distance at the break.

Pop-ups aren't going to help your BABIP.

Jack: Good post re: Victorino. I completely agree.

I concur with the Scotch Man.

Vic, smell ya later. Pe-ace!
He can take his unimproving as8 to Cincinnati for all I care.He's dumber than a golden retriever and most golden retrievers aren't starting to run like a bow legged cowboy either. Him and his MMA sh8t is enough.

It's a shame that every departure has to turn into a big deal for the loudest, worst subset of fans. I wonder if guys like Werth and Abreu will want to come back for their rightful spots on the Wall of Fame 20 years from now, considering how the WIP segment of the fan base has treated them since they left. I wonder how Victorino will be received when he comes back next year in a different uniform. Given recent history, I'm not optimistic about how he'll be treated.

Last week I posted the CF FA Class, and thoguht Vic was the 5th best available behind Hamilton, Bourn, BJ Upton, and Melky Cabrera.

If you can re-sign Vic as the '5th' available CF, i really think you can get a good deal. Even after victorino there are a few 'sleeper' types that teams might gamble with before taking a look at him - so he could very easily sit on the market and end up being scooped up for cheap. Guys like Sizemore, Pagan, Cody Ross(pretty weak CF)and Ankiel.

Obviously best case scenario right now is he pulls his head out of his ass, bats RH, and ends up having a good year - but if the alternative is him falling down the charts and able to be re-signed on the cheap, I think that'd end up being a good idea.

That it took MLB this long to figure out Marlon Byrd was doping is a clear indictment of the inadequacy of the system.

Pop-ups aren't going to help your BABIP.

Posted by: Joe D | Monday, June 25, 2012 at 04:43 PM

His FB% is down from 41.9% to 40.1%. His IFFB% is up a hair from 12.6% to 13.1%, but is still below his career average.

Jack: Agreed, i think he will improve this season.

But I base that on the 'regress to the mean' premise, and not the 'hes had bad luck' premise.

@DH Phils...Werth? Wall of Fame? I guess so given the recent track record of poor choices for that stupid thing. I think the 2008 team could slay an entire village and still get a king's welcome every single time they set foot in CBP. I for one won't ever boo or jeer any of them. That doesn't mean there won't be any idiots out there that will raz Lidge upon his return. But again why is it not ok to be critical of someone yet still appreciative of what they've done. Victorino was a big part of the team's success but now he represents what has to change with this team to make the right steps forward in the future. It really just is what it is.

DH Phils: I still think there's a decent chance to get back in this, but yeah, this basically has to be the stand right here.

A losing record in this stretch would basically end it, barring a historic comeback. A .500 record keeps you in it, but you're still going to need a lot of help.

Realistically, I agree with you that 9-4 is what the team needs to put themselves in a realistic position.

Oh really Byrd tested positive?

His FB% is down from 41.9% to 40.1%. His IFFB% is up a hair from 12.6% to 13.1%, but is still below his career average.

Posted by: DH Phils

He has always swung from the heels (most notably when hitting left) so I'm not surprised his #s are on par for his career. He has however been one of the few guys that comes through with RISP this year. I give him props for that.

Considering their lack of centerfield alternatives, his body of work on the whole, I'd advise caution on selling Vic for peanuts and speeding up the John Mayberry Jr. / Tyson Gillies era in center field.

This type of analysis doesn't account for the fact that (a) this season is effectively done, anyway, & (b) the potential cost of retaining Vic's services is liable to turn into a net negative for the ball club. The Phillies aren't a +/- Vic away from being a championship team. In short, I'd take the peanuts.

The fact he (Byrd) worked directly with Vic Conte (Mr.BALCO) should be an indicator if not, perhaps a red light.
It is like the parent whose kid drops weed or cigarettes on the floor and the kid says "Nah ma'am, I was holding on to that for a friend."

Does Byrd have breast cancer? How can you even try that sh8t?

I think a lot of people are still sentimental about some guys on this team who are holdovers from 2008. In this case we are talking about Victorino. This team is in the position they are in because many deals were handed out in good faith and done with the hearts in front of their minds. They simply need to drawn the line somewhere. It starts with Shane. This doesn't mean we don't love him. It's just the breaks.

There's no point in dealing Victorino at his lowest value. Let's see if he catches fire in the next few weeks. If he does, maybe we'll get a meaningful prospect in return. If not, and if we're looking at peanuts in return, keep him - the Phils still have lineup cards to fill out and tickets to sell.

Joe D: I generally agree with that thought. I'm not advocating re-signing him, actually, assuming the market for him is relatively robust (if you can get him on a bargain deal, go for it).

It was more a comment on the tone of fans' sentiment towards the players generally. Guys like Werth, Abreu, and increasingly Victorino are ripped on by the fans and you hear things like "Victorino is dumb and sucks, and we won't miss him at all when he's gone," which is far different than saying "Victorino was a great player for us but the team would be better off going another route."

You know?

Jack: How 'bout this --

"Victorino, though apparently possessed of an intelligence level roughly equal to that of a houseplant, was more often than not an asset to the Phillies. However, the time has come where the team would be better off going another route."

If the package for Victorino is something like Gillies/Ramirez/Aumont, I'd rather just watch Victorino play for 2 more months and take 2 draft picks.

Oh yeah Jack those 2 lines of thought are definitely way different. Unfortunately the first line is the one you typically hear most and the one that gets the most attention. And much like the arrival of T-Mac has made Wheels look better the arrival of Pence has made Victorino a bonafide mensa candidate.

How 'bout this?

I thought Vic was great for years. His performance in the field and production more than covered his lack of brains. He and Werth were great Rule 5 and scrap heap acquisitions, respectively. I will never forget his 2008 heroics in the playoffs. I now worry that he is a big idiot and Pence is unorthodox and sloppy in the field. Side by side, that is a big concern for me. Being behind an ancient Utley or a potentially young 2nd baseman, is another concern. His and Pence's utter reliance on natural talent (ala Rollins) doesn't age well. He will get a big, long deal from somebody, I hope it is not Rube.

Is that a nicer sentiment?

Shane is what he is. Pouting and not giving the Hawaii hand gesture because he doesn't have a contract. Plain and simple. I have no patience for a player who A) gets doubled off second B) can't read a fly ball right. (last night another example) C) refuses to scrap batting left handed Sh&t. D) acting like an ass when reporters ask what's up. You always are the man when boat is sailing fine, but choppy waters start u get all defensive and pout. Shane nice story, but this team needs more. And Shane you just don't fit in anymore. Let's just ride him out. If you can't get a bullpen pc then keep him and take picks.

I really like Shane Victorino. Between him and Thomas Magnum, I'd take Shane every time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AepyGm9Me6w

Yo, new thread

Instead of splits, the focal point should be his .259 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which is frustratingly low for a player with his speed and ability to drive the ball.

That hits the nail on the head. I'm not sure if he is trying too hard to hit for power or what, but Vic just needs to start making a bit more contact. I'm not saying he should always hit for singles but perhaps he should for a bit until he gets back into the feel of things. Start getting on base more and scoring a bit to pick up his confidence and get back to being a high on-base guy.

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