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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Comments

Agree. They've been watchable for several weeks now.

phormer Moyer replaced by phormer Outman

Outman yet to turn into anything of much value yet, handful of acceptable starts with OAK in years past. Checked in on his blanton-trade partner and saw that Cardenas has given the Cubs nothing in his few starts so far(4-25, all doubles).

To: The rest of NL East
From: The Phillies.

BOO!

My penis is still itchy.

"The funny thing is this: Had Chooch struck out, most BLers would have been ripping UC mercilessly for using him in a game as it would delay his inevitable return from the DL from the injury that prevents him from playing."

Worse yet - can you imagine what would have happened if Chooch had aggravated his hamstring trying to beat out a single?

I've noticed that the post-hoc judgements of Charlie's decisions are always 100% correct.

Chooch is going to see a back specialist today.

Phlipper: If you're looking for rational criticism you've come to the wrong place. And you know that. I was thinking the same thing last night with all of the plaudits Charlie was getting. Of course pinch hitting Chooch was the right move, unless of course it didn't work.

I say it all the time the other way so I will say it again- the right decision is the right decision regardless of the outcome.

Ruiz was your best bat on the bench. He had to hit there in that spot.

Thanks for sharing Jamie...

TTI...I agree.

Dom went 3-5 with a HR last night.

Say what you will about the guy, but his ability to hit minor-league pitching has never really been in doubt.

Just, you know, everything else.

"Say what you will about the guy, but his ability to hit minor-league pitching has never really been in doubt."

Not sure about that. He hasn't exactly killed AAA pitching.

The best part of last night's game was Rollins' HR. The pitch was a total meatball, but it was so nice to see Jimmy turn on a ball and really drive it. It felt like he hadn't driven a ball all year before last night.

Which brings his OPS up to .682 on the year. He's definitely crushing that minor-league pitching so far.

The level of at bat Dom was putting forth while he was up was fine. I never had an issue with that. I'm still really pissed they sent him down in September last year. It's one of the dumbest things I've ever seen. What better place and time to take your lumps in the field than in the MLB with a 12 game division lead with a fossil playing ahead of you who is on his way out of town at season's end anyway? What do I know though?

BAP: "Not sure.." neither did Harper when he was brought up he was hitting .250 in the minors.

I have Jack's real statement here guys. What he meant to say was:

Say what you will about the guy, but my man crush knows no end and if scientifically they make it so guys can give birth to babies I will give him as many as my non child bearing hips can.

Its pretty safe to say that if Brown was knocking the cover off the ball in AAA, he'd be in LF right now in CBP...defense or no defense. He would have been called up the moment Nix went down if he was producing.

As for CM bringing in Papel that was ridiculous,yes he was warming up and no he won't be pitching tonight but why not bring in Diekman who other than one stint has been totally unhittable (and he also warmed up earlier). Our closer does not have to appear in a a game just because he warmed up. We will need him down the road when we go for the wild card (my scheduled prediction based on our missing each prior year's mark since the WS).

Diekman was hittable in one of the StL games too when he gave up the hit that resulted in the Molina/Chooch collision, just looks like a good outing in the boxscore.

Joe D - Chooch is seeing a back specialist? Didn't hear that. Something that has bothered him a few times in the past including last April.

Jeez, guys, lighten up.

He has a career .824 OPS in the minors, and has about an .800 OPS for his career at AAA. He can hit minor-league pitching fine when he's healthy. That's not exactly a controversial statement. All I was trying to do was make a point and give the kid a little bit of credit. I didn't say he could come up and crush major-league pitching, nor did I say anything about his defense.

Tough crowd today, huh?

Where is the story on Chooch visiting a back specialist?

Joe D - Chooch is seeing a back specialist? Didn't hear that. Something that has bothered him a few times in the past including last April.

Posted by: MG

Where is the story on Chooch visiting a back specialist?

Posted by: Iceman

Dudes, he's been carrying this team!

Diekman warmed up during the bottom of 8th. Between the Phils batting around in the top of the 9th and the Mets scoring 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th, he had sat long enough that he would have pretty much started all over again. Papelbon was warmed up and pretty much ready to go.

Papelbon nailed down an important win against an NL East opponent - and that's a big problem? Geeesh!

RK: Harper is 19 and had all of 82 PAs at AAA; Dom is 24, has more than 400 PAs at AAA, and has spent parts of three seasons there.

Big difference, wouldn't you say?

BAP: All the more reason to bring him up there is very little for him to do in LHV. I think its pretty well established that he can hit and its pretty well established that the curent team's hitting is day-to-day. I don't think we can expect Pierre or Ty to continue to carry the team. If Dom is not part of the Phils' future we should trade him while he is still young. But don't be surprised if he comes back to bite us some day soon like Gio.

Honestly, I think posters, like myself, were just pointing out how its comical that he's in a game with a 5 run lead, but there were other games that were in much more critical situations and he was not used.

As far as last night goes, he was warmed up, today is an off day. I really had no issue with him being used. Honestly, one swing of the bat and he would have been in any way.

Dom has done nothing at LHV this year to show that he can hit.

RK: Of course, you've also been on the "trade everyone & turn the team over to the AAA players" crusade since the off-season. Yet our veteran team seems to be playing pretty well right now, and is somehow only 3 games out of 1st place despite a massive rash of injuries and an April from hell.

I don't think it's at all "pretty well established" that Dom can hit. He didn't hit in his first major league try-out. He didn't hit in his second. He didn't hit at AAA last year. And he has been flat-out horrendous for most of this year. He had a good game last night. Good for him. I sincerely hope it leads to a hot streak in which he boosts his numbers and states his case to be called up. But, for the most part, his last 2 seasons -- both in the majors and at AAA -- have been woefully unimpressive.

Here's a prediction on Dom: I don't think he ever spends more than 20 more games in a Phils uniform. I think a lot of Beerleaguer's wasted breath has been spent on a Quad-A player. He'll be dealt in a package to a team that also thinks he has "enormous upside". I'm sure I'll be mercilessly attacked for this view. So be it.

Could we get J Roll to take part in Pence's Table Tennis tourney tonight with hopes of getting him to mess up his swing and keep balls on the ground?

By the way, it is great to see the King is back and writing obnoxious posts.

Dom's season in AAA has been utterly disappointing. And Jack, whilean .800 OPS at AAA isn't all that bad, we're talking about a guy that's going to have to survive solely on the merits of his offense. An .800 OPS would probably translate to something slightly above league average at the majors, and in an offense-driven position like LF, that's not really that big of a deal.

I hope the kid figures it all out, and ends up a All Star capable Phillie for years to come. Right now, though, it's not looking entirely promising.

Why even bother comparing Harper to Brown? Harper is a potential superstar who has already produced at a very healthy clip this year at just 19.

Brown hasn't hit much in his MLB appearances, is a defensive liability, and at this point you have to start to question just what kind of role he will have at the MLB level.

If you look at his numbers at AAA/MLB since 2010, they are underwhelming:

MLB - .236/.314/.382 (.696 OPS) in 246 ABs
AAA - .286/.364/.428 (.791 OPS) in 374 ABs

He takes his share of BBs but his .146 and .142 ISO numbers aren't impressive at all for a corner OF. He's got speed but his base stealing totals are subpar (26 SB, 12 CS, 68%). Combine that with his notable defensive struggles and he starts to suddenly look a lot less attractive as a prospect.

One interesting thing I haven't seen brought up about him being in CF is that his offensive numbers the last 2 years translate much better to CF than a corner OF position at the MLB level.

Given how he has struggled in LF, Vic's likely departure next year, and the lack of a CF prospect, it was a smart gamble to move him to CF to try to jump start him.

"his offensive numbers the last 2 years translate much better to CF than a corner OF position at the MLB level."

Well, yeah. But, by that logic, perhaps we should move Ryan Howard to 2nd base. His numbers would look great for a 2nd baseman.

Greatest Outfielders of the 21st Century
----------------------
Lastings Milledge
Delmon Young
Geoff Jenkins
Fred Lewis
Dom Brown

Yes I have been for trading all those players who are now under performing or are injured why not give me credit for being right? This was not a crystal ball analysis it was based on trend lines that have been there for Rollins and Utley and others for some time.

In the NL its a young man's game!

As for Dom he has been hitting well over .300 Since returning on May 20 (11 for 36) he has been a 300 hitter throughout his minor league career with the exception of his first year and last year in teh show in 184 PA he hit .245 with 5 HR and 19 RBIs which compares favorably with most Phils in the lineup right now.
That said if management does not like him or doesn't think he has a future here why not trade him while he is young.

And

This is a serious question not a challenge to anyone's assessment of Dom Brown.
Are there 2 ways to look at minor league numbers as predictors of MLB numbers.
1) A veteran/career minor leaguer who has developed as far as he likely will and is putting up an .800 OPS. There it's safe to say that he won't hit as well in the majors and won't keep improving because he's 29 or whatever. So it is sage to day his MLB numbers will be a 75% (or whatever percentage) of his MiLB numbers.
2) A younger player who is still developing (in Brown's case maybe nearing the end of his development but nonetheless developing) and puts up an .800 OPS. Here it is possible/likely that he will learn and continue to improve at the MLB level, right? Right away he probably won't put up the same numbers but it's not like all the .310 MLB hitters hit .360 in the minor or all the sluggers hit 65 HRs in the minors.
Does this make sense as a way of thinking? All numbers are rougher than rough and only for comparison purposes.

"he has been hitting well over .300 Since returning on May 20 (11 for 36)"

Yes, a robust .306 that will drop under .300 if he makes an out in his next AB. That is certainly 'well over' .300.

Also, the first comment of Brown in CF was Sandberg saying he wanted Brown to get out there run around and not think about things. I implied that things got too mental in LF and CF somehow represented less pressure and more fun. It's similar to when Ankiel started playing as an everyday player in the minors. The cards didn't plan on him succeeding but they said go play some OF and have fun between starts. Sometimes baseball needs to be fun for a guy to get rolling.

"It implied" not I implied.

Wishful thinking but maybe Dom could get a better read on the ball from Center than from LF or RF. He's fast enough to cover the ground...

Like we have something better up here to keep him down at the farm?

Also, the first comment of Brown in CF was Sandberg saying he wanted Brown to get out there run around and not think about things. I implied that things got too mental in LF and CF somehow represented less pressure and more fun. It's similar to when Ankiel started playing as an everyday player in the minors. The cards didn't plan on him succeeding but they said go play some OF and have fun between starts. Sometimes baseball needs to be fun for a guy to get rolling.

Posted by: gobaystars!

This is what I was saying yesterday too. That maybe moving him to CF will cause him to rely on his natural athletic ability. A simple read and react approach is a necessity in CF. It's a necessity at every position but being in front of the ball on contact could help him out. I think it's a combination of letting him roam free and well this is the last resort.

What's the over/under on the number of games before someone is killed with an outfield of Brown in CF and Pence in RF?

I can't even fathom an outfield consisting of Brown, Vic & Pence.

The horror! The horror!

I can't even fathom an outfield consisting of Brown, Vic & Pence.

The horror! The horror!

Posted by: GTown_Dave

They'd make Vince Young's Wonderlic score look like a 2400 on the SAT.

It's hilarious hearing the same people who lament the release of Rich Thompson also declare Dom Brown a lost cause.

Does anyone remember the short lived Burrell, Abreu, Giambi from L to R configuration? That was at the Vet where there was much more ground to cover.

"Like we have something better up here to keep him down at the farm?"

Our current left fielder is hitting .324, with a .361 OBP, out of the No. 2 spot. Seems to me that's a goodly amount better than what we could project from a guy hitting .264/.302/.380 in his third year of AAA.

"I'm sure I'll be mercilessly attacked for this view. So be it."

Actually, here on What-happened-last-is-guaranteed-to-continue-in-perpetuity-leaguer, that view is practically holy writ.

real Jimmie Rollins?
(I mean: three hits in one game!!)
or just a blind squirrel

If teams decide to shift Rollins I fully expect him to hit .350 the rest of the way. Seriously. Even though he didn't admit it in the postgame interview, he slapped 2 balls right there. That shift was really silly.

Despite the consternation before the season about keeping Juan Pierre (and there was LOTS!), he's done a great job. Better than I think anyone could have expected.

I imagine that will fall off eventually... maybe Dom will be ready to go by then. Or may Mayberry will be ready to play more.

JPBeastmode has earned his playing time. He doesn't deserve a full starting job, but he's done well enough to make any talk of DOM being called up not worthwhile.

I'm going to continue living in the fantasy world of DOM moving to CF and blossoming into his full potential for now, cant be bothered with this talk of him replacing Pierre right now.

Pierre is playing for his professional career....that's probably a pretty solid motivator for him.

The Dom moving to CF thing sounds like complete grasping of straws.

I have just never heard of an outfielder having defensive problems moving to the far more difficult position. Just crazy.

"Our current left fielder is hitting .324, with a .361 OBP, out of the No. 2 spot."

It's gotten to the point where I can't be disgusted with Pierre anymore, and that is saying something. We're going on 2 months of slightly above average production.

Dom in th outfield looks like a giraffe on acid. He just doesn't look like a ballplayer. Doesn't mean he can't be, but the guy doesn't inspire much confidence when he has a baseball glove on.

***giraffe on acid***

Its this type of fantastically descriptive prose that separates BL from the average baseball blog.

BAP - Brown has not had 3 years at AAA. He's had barley a full season worth of PAs there. Stop being disingenious by saying it is his third year there.

Crazy split for JP:

7th-9th Inning: .457 AVG/.490 OBP/.990 OPS


Its basically 50/50 that he'll get on base in the final third of a game.

He's also got a .900 OPS on the road so far...which I'd attribute to small sample size too.

Dom in CF means vic is gone.

Hopefully, Vic gone means Hamels stays.

Bourne will be the Phillies CF next year. Book it.

RK, I humbly bow to you. You take PPP to a whole new level.

Something that someone mentioned on PhuturePhillies which I think is instrumental in evaluating Domonic Brown is the fact that they have been tinkering with his swing to it smoother and faster so he won't get beaten inside with fastballs. Adjusting a swing for a player takes months, can help explain the slow start.

I don't know that CF is really more difficult than LF or RF. It is just more athletically demanding. Does that make sense?

He's had barley a full season

Posted by: RedBurb | Thursday, May 31, 2012 at 01:42 PM

I don't know if he's had barley, but the kid sure has hops.

No Chicago Phan, it's because he is weak minded and sulking in AAA. Or at least that's what the mouth breathers have been saying.

gobay: Thats a pretty interesting comment.

Nice Five-4-One. Fingers move too fast haha.

5-4-1: Center isn't "harder" than left or right, it's more "important" because you cover more ground. But I've been told it's easier to read the ball, you just have to have the speed and arm to go get it and throw it back in. Carl Crawford, Juan Pierre, & Jon Damon didn't play left (despite their collective speed) because it was easier than center, they played it because they were physically limited by a noodle arm. If Dom has the speed and arm to play center than it wouldn't be harder, he would just be in on more plays.

Definitely hope the PPP is right on this one. Bourn in CF would be a great addition.

Unless PPP meant Jason 'Bourne,' in which case, I would stay away. I hear he doesn't have much range.

Jbird,

I completely respect your opinion. However, at the risk of sounding like an arrogant braggart (which is not my intention at all), I happened to play many years in the outfield and at a division 2 college level. I can unequivocally say that reading a ball of the bat, in center, where more balls are hit directly at you than in any other position, it is much harder to field that position.

Typically, in left or right, most balls are either slicing one way or the other. Meaning that as you track the ball you can actually see the arc and figure out a logical route to the ball. Dom Brown can't do that. He's shown he can't do that... or at least yet.

In center, you don't usually have the luxury of picking up on the trajectory as quickly. You must develop for better and quicker instincts and play a very smart type of game.

I will however, admit that it is possible that cf, since you have to rely on more instinct, could possibly end up simplifying things just a little for Brown.

Anyway, we'll see. Just saying that as a whole, I would still consider tracking flyballs in centerfield to be harder than in the corners.

Adjusting a swing for a player takes months, can help explain the slow start.

It might. On the other hand, the Phillies have been messing w/ Dom's swing for years. I've increasingly got the feeling that we're going to continue hearing "he's not ready" until "he's not here anymore".

RedBurb-- No one thinks he's "weak minded" or sulking. He's just not the player he's portrayed to be by his advocates. Us old folks remember great minor league numbers from many players. Ron Stone, Roger Freed, Jeff Jackson. If changing his plate approach works, fine. I'm not holding my "mouth-breath."

Funny-- I meant to say JEFF Stone-- but Ron fits the list also :)

5-4-1: I was a 3b, so I am just going by what I've read. just googling for a quote I got this one from Bryce Harper that jives with what I usually hear about it:

"For his part, Harper finds center field to be easier than right, anyway.

'Reading the ball off the bat is a lot easier,' he said, 'and being up the middle makes it a lot easier to play out there. I think some of the angles you have to take in left field or right field, diving this way or that way, makes it tougher. In center field, you just have a better feel for good routes.'"

5-4-1: I was a 3b, so I am just going by what I've read. just googling for a quote I got this one from Bryce Harper that jives with what I usually hear about it:

"For his part, Harper finds center field to be easier than right, anyway.

'Reading the ball off the bat is a lot easier,' he said, 'and being up the middle makes it a lot easier to play out there. I think some of the angles you have to take in left field or right field, diving this way or that way, makes it tougher. In center field, you just have a better feel for good routes.'"

Posted by: Jbird

Good find and good quote. I believe it to be true.

541 - Typically, in left or right, most balls are either slicing one way or the other. Meaning that as you track the ball you can actually see the arc and figure out a logical route to the ball. Dom Brown can't do that.

I think that is the point. Dom can't read the slice you get in the corner positions so he may be better with the ball travelling on a truer arc. (again, wishful thinking)...

oogie - What is the type of player he was portrayed to be? Are 250 PAs at the MLB level enough to give a judgment one way or the other? Most of his advocates have been saying just let the kid play and see how he turns out, while most of his detractors have already pronounced how his career will pan out.

And TEB 33 comes along to prove my point. The statements he just made were definites. Nowhere will you see Brown's advocates say "he's a future all star" "he will hit 40 homers".

real Jimmie Rollins?
(I mean: three hits in one game!!)
or just a blind squirrel

-Andy
_________________________________

Sir, you wound me.

RedBurb, what statements? In this thread? It looks like the only thing he's said is that Dom can't read the arc on the ball in the corner OF positions? Do you disagree?

He was portrayed as the Phillies #1 prospect, talked about as being untouchable, and other hyperbole. I think we HAVE let the kid play.. not just his 250 AB, but his last two years in the majors OR AAA are not inspiring. I hope he DOES live up to the hype.. Just doubtin' it is all.

Hey, like I said. Completely respect the differences of opinions. Just my feeling that its a tougher position.

Fata - No not in this thread. There have been multiple instances where posters have stated definites as to what Brown will become.

However saying that "Dom can't do that" is a definite.

Has he watched every fly ball hit to him over the course of the past 3 seasons? On every flyball has Brown taken a bad route? On every flyball has Brown not read it correctly? That's what I mean by definites. Yes there have been high profile incidents where Brown has made mistakes. But doesn't every player?

Vic and Pence have taken bad routes to balls. Can I from now on say "They can't read balls off the bat."?

541 - Every player has a skill set. Dom has shown that his skill set has some limitations in left and right. I think the Phillies are just seeing if he can do better in center, regardless of how 'hard' it is. I hope it works because he'd be more valuable in center than in the corners. Not in any way saying it will work but it is worth a shot.

Redburb - Huh? I don't know how what I wrote relates to what you wrote in any way...

"What better place and time to take your lumps in the field than in the MLB with a 12 game division lead with a fossil playing ahead of you who is on his way out of town at season's end anyway?"


JoeD,

The "fossil" has an .861 OPS, and a 125 OPS+.

Redburb - You can say Vic and Pence 'can't read balls of the bat' when they get sent back to the minor repeately to work on their defense...

Redburb, you're being a bit stickly, don't you think? When people say that Dom Brown "Cant' handle an inside fstball", I think the tacit assumption is that they mean, "Has trouble with the inside fastball". in that, he will hit one every once in a while, but it is a pitch that is a severe weakness for him.

In much the same way, Dom being unable to read slicing fly balls in LF/RF is a shorthand way of saying, it is a big weakness in his game.

As an example, when I say something like, "Freddy Galvis just doesn't take walks", are you going to chide me for stating a definite, and overlook the obvious tenor of the statement; that Freddy Galvis is very poor at taking walks?

JoeD,

The "fossil" has an .861 OPS, and a 125 OPS+.

Posted by: awh

I know. But at that time last season there was no need or reason to play Ibanez over Brown. In fact all signs pointed to the opposite...

- big lead in the division
- Brown needing to find his legs in the field
- Ibanez needing rest with the playoffs coming up after hitting a putrid .210 in August

You get what I'm saying. And as far as Ibanez's success so far this year...good for him but we all know the tailspin is coming. Baseball is streaky but he is the streakiest of them all.

TEB 33 - Vic was shuffled between the bigs and AAA early on in his career. He developed into an above average player, with lots of playing time.

The problem all comes from expectations. Because Brown was heaped with massive expectations with being untouchable in trades, fans had lofty expectations for him. He hasn't lived up to that billing and therefore everyone has an opinion on him.

Ibanez has a .990 OPS, a .352 ISO and is roughly a 162 OPS+ hitter at Yankee stadium this year. Damn fine call by the Yankees this past offseason.

Fata - I understand what you are saying, however there have been instances where the definites in the case of Brown were exactly that - defnite statements as to what people thought he would become. All I am saying, and I think many of Brown's advocates also have said, is that 250 PAs at the MLB level aren't enough to judge the kid either way. Let him play and his play will dictate where he eventually ends up.

Ibanez has a .990 OPS, a .352 ISO and is roughly a 162 OPS+ hitter at Yankee stadium this year. Damn fine call by the Yankees this past offseason.

Posted by: Fatalotti

So we expect him to just keep it up huh? Did we watch the same Raul Ibanez the past couple years? He goes on a 50 game tear then he is epic terrible for the next 50 and so on and so forth.

Joe D, no illusions that he'll keep that up. But at 40, it's not uncommon for teams to just think you can't even put together a 50 game stretch anymore, if any stretch, and not sign you all. If the Yankees get nothing more than what they've gotten out of Ibanez so far, at $1 M, it was well worth the investment.

Redburb - I haven't said a thing about Dom Brown other than he's had trouble fielding fly balls in left and right fields, which seems pretty indisputible to me. If you think he's played at a gold glove level please explain...

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