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Thursday, May 10, 2012

Comments

ColonelTom,

I'm not sure whether you've noticed but Polanco moves about as quickly as Hollis Thomas and has the side to side movement of an elevator. I'm pretty sure he can't play 2B.

Also, I don't think Galvis is a future starter. He is a defensive sub option for a team that is already offensively loaded.

You do need to balance the roster with cheap producers but not at the expense of Cole Hamels. If you let Cole go and bring in David Wright is that an improvement over the long term? I don't think so. Let Polanco go and get whoever to play third (I'm not going to look up the available Pedor Felizes of the world). Patch LF together like they are this year (shh it's kind of working) and improve the bullpen. Then play all of next year with Howard and you have a team very capable of winning. It's not that hard to see. But you know blow it up! They need to sell! Improve by dumping Hamels! They can't afford it!

That's to say nothing about the team's ability to increase payroll. We can't speculate too much on that as nobody ever thought they'd spend what they currently spend.

"I get it's certainly not a SUSTAINABLE model, for sure, but it's not like we can simply state that age/injuries should have us readjust our expectations and qualify this season as "over."

Sustainability is not as fixed as the hand-wringers (Jack being primary among them) like to think.

The team has a lot of valuable commodities on their roster, that could be transformed into other, different commodities going forward. Often times, pronouncements about how certain players are "untradeable" turn out not to be accurate. Unforeseeable circumstances and opportunities arise.

Further, the team has shown a willingness to spend money. Sure, there are a couple of organizations that spend a lot of money year after year and never put a quality team on the field - but the long-term excellence of the Phillies is a good indicator that they aren't one of those teams.

If past is prologue, the Phillies will continue to put competitive teams on the field and hand-wringers and bellyachers will continue to gnash their teach, clutch their pearls, and run around whining that the sky is falling.

Drabek is basically a non-prospect at this point; he is not "blue-chip" at all.

As for Youkilis, he can't play 3B consistenly anymore. I'm willing to bet that a good deal of his injury issues the last 2 seasons are due to his move over to 3B.

There is probably no chance I can see a Phils game in coastal
NC on basic cable this week, right?

***Drabek is basically a non-prospect at this point; he is not "blue-chip" at all.***

He's actually looked fairly solid for the Jays this year and he's just 24. There's a decent shot he still becomes a solid SP.

***If past is prologue, the Phillies will continue to put competitive teams on the field and hand-wringers and bellyachers will continue to gnash their teach, clutch their pearls, and run around whining that the sky is falling.***

Winner. The weather is getting nicer. Howard is on his way back. Utley can't be far off. The Phillies have been down before and they've righted the ship plenty of times. Baseball seasons are very very long. If you're expecting the downfall of the franchise, sorry it isn't happening.

Polanco or Whoever = another year of Polanco

I disagree that LF is working. Right now we are getting ZERO power from a corner outfielder.

Once again, they don't have the payroll flexibility to improve the bullpen if Hamels is resigned. I don't know how many times I can say that before it sinks in.

Simple formula is if Hamels gets resigned, regardless of getting Howard back the team will not be any better, and due to payroll tightness, will in all likeliness get worse.

Also, i guess I'm not allowed to speculate on whether the Phillies have a budget? Ok then, lets sign Josh Hamilton, David Wright, resign Hamels, we can hire LaRussa, Torre, and Lou Piniella as assistants to Chuck, sign Greinke, BJ Upton, Brandon League to be the setup man, and we'll sign Lance Berkman to be our big bat off the bench.

Because you know, if you can't speculate that the Phillies have a ceiling somewhere, then they can just sign everyone!

"Howard is on his way back. Utley can't be far off."

Oh nice, i didn't know that. Could you direct me to the news article, or beat reporter or twitter update or psychic in a shack on the side of a highway that apparently told you that?

Jride: Well, Nix should be in LF giving us power vs RHP.

Most people would blame the sailor for getting drunk and spending "like a drunken sailor."

Others on this board would rather blame the alcohol. Or the navy. Or assume that said sailor will randomly find more money and then suddenly sober up and become smart with said money.

fyi (amaro = sailor)

Jride: Well, Nix should be in LF giving us power vs RHP.


I will admit that Nix is a pretty decent player. However, he's an extremely streaky player who is going to give you long stretches of nothing, just as much as he might give you good stretches of power.

Polly,

Drabek, D'Arnaud, Gio (that was a million years ago), Singleton, Cosart, Taylor (for what its worth he would be somewhat valuable considering whats going on now)

I'm not saying that I necessarily disagree with these trade, however, Singleton, Drabek and D'Arnaud are blue chip players.

To say that Gio is the only legit contributor is either crazy, or you stopped paying attention to the Phillies like 5 years ago.

Posted by: JRide | Thursday, May 10, 2012 at 01:11 PM

Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd...from a trade in 2006 could possibly help the Phillies on May 10, 2012. None of the other players are capable of helping on May 10, 2012. If they were, they would be doing so in their current organizations. That is the point.

I never made the point that they would help at the current moment. Althought Drabek has a 3.34 era and is striking out 7.2 per 9 in the AL East.

You were the one who brought up gutting the farm system. And yes, they gutted what they had. I also mentioned that I'm not really that upset with any of the players that got moved (with the possible exception of Singleton).

NEPP - "He's actually looked fairly solid for the Jays this year and he's just 24. There's a decent shot he still becomes a solid SP."

Disagree pretty strongly with this one...5.29 FIP this year, compared to 5.52 last year, when he was demoted. 7.2 K/9 is decent, but is far outweighed by his 5.14 BB/9, his unsustainable 86.9 LOB%, and .263 BABIP. He has been fairly lucky this year, just like he was in his first few starts last year before he blew up. He hasn't really gotten any better.

JRide,

That's not necessarily how the payroll will play out next year. They could pretty easily backload a Hamels deal to free up 2013 money, ditto Victorino.

And they could eclipse the luxury tax limit if they want; by most accounts, it doesn't really matter unless they were to do it in 2012 AND 2013. If they're over in 2013 and back under in 2014, little harm done.

How do they get under in 2014? One way would be for Brown OR Mayberry to earn replacing Pence in RF. Or Valle for Ruiz. Or, as much as I hate to say it, Galvis or Hernandez for Utley.

I think that "fixing the bullpen" isn't quite as simple as some might thing (i.e. forgo signing Hamels in favor of 'pen pieces). Outside of "elite closers" in MLB (who are themselves still very volatile) bullpen pitchers are in the bullpen for a reason - they're extremely inconsistent and not especially reliable (largely due to a diminished arsenal of pitches).

Basically, if you're advocating not signing a known commodity in Hamels (who is good for 200+ IP/year) in favor of a couple 'reliable bullpen pieces' (which will top out ~85 IP's each), then I'd purport that you don't fully understand the volatility of bullpen pitching. We already have a closer. Our bullpen isn't vastly different from almost every other bullpen in MLB. There's a reason that most teams take a "we gotta get into their 'pen" approach. Simply put, reliability and consistency are not there.

The pendulum will swing back in favor of our 'pen. It always does. I can recall several seasons where we bemoaned the 'pen, only to have it become renowned as "lock down" just a few weeks later. Let's just hope that it's not too late (or that the offense doesn't go back to sleep) when they do come back...

Drabek has looked like a 5th starter/swingman so far this year. Who would you rather have on the roster: $7 million over the next 2 years KK or $900K over the next 2 years Drabek?

Also, Drabek would probably make a decent reliever given he throws fairly hard and has 2 okay pitches.

Also in 2014, under my scenario, you'd have Worley and May making peanuts as SP 4 and 5, and you'd have to think by then the Aumonts and DeFratuses would be ready to replace the Contreras' and Kendricks' and Qualls'.

https://twitter.com/#!/Dave_Gershman

Interesting he estimates 75% of baseball GMs have anonymous Twitter accounts. It wouldn't surprise me if the Phils did too. Just requires some time and effort to download 'Followers' of current Phils' players who have Twitter feeds and cross-reference them to see who are the followers common then eliminating obvious ones.

Wonder if Amaro does have a Twitter feed?

Drabek has looked like a 5th starter/swingman so far this year. Who would you rather have on the roster: $7 million over the next 2 years KK or $900K over the next 2 years Drabek?

Also, Drabek would probably make a decent reliever given he throws fairly hard and has 2 okay pitches.

Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, May 10, 2012 at 01:42 PM

Drabek was part of a package fro Roy Halladay, not Kyle Kendrick. I'd rather have Roy Halladay. Drabek is walking a ton of hitters. That would not work well in the bullpen nor will it work well as a starter. it will catch up to him.

"Wonder if Amaro does have a Twitter feed?"

May God have mercy on his soul if it ever leaked out to the general Philly tweeting contingent. It would be an epic moment for this team, however.

Was at the game last night. There was an audible groan last night when KK emerged from the pen. Apparently not everyone knew that's who was warming up out there. I watched in amazement as he imploded with no one up in the pen. When he came out to start the eighth, there was raucous laughter. It was pathetic. My new nickname for Kendrick is Audible Groan.

Willard - I doubt he does but you probably could narrow down a list of anonymous users who were following all of the current Phils' players Tweet feeds.

More than 50/50 likelihood that one of those Twitter feeds is someone in the Phils' organization who does monitor them on an active/semi-active basis.

Just look for a tweeter who sends trade ideas to a reporter for feedback: @oramaMG who hangs up 1st: Blanton+May+Brown+Worley 4 ukliz?

MG, or we could just ask DPatrone to inquire with his source.

KK is the most hated member on this team right now and it isn't even close. I went to the Sunday game when he started vs. Cubs two weeks ago. He even heard some boos early then even though he didn't pitch that badly.

JRoll is probably #2 although I haven't heard boos for JRoll in a long-time.

I have a hunch Amaro could jsut have someone from his PR staff follow his players to read what they say, and not have to go through the fake twitter feed thing.

"Q: If Hamels is gonna claim he’s old school, shouldn’t he show up hung over, go on coke binges and wolf down greenies also?

Yep. And exclude minorities from the game whenever possible.

Q: Could a random collection of bums off the street outpitch the Phillies bullpen?

Hmm. I’d have to know which street. I could go either way on this."

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/10/you-asked-me-questions-on-twitter-so-i-shall-answer-them-21/

Hamels one was legitimately funny.

More likely it's just some intern for the Phils who provides periodic insight to the FO as to the general social media vibe (probably the same guy who runs the @Phillies account).

I do find it interesting when some of the more obscure Twitter discussions start to find their way into the broadcast booth, or an interview, though. Much of that is probably just the many beat writers who use social media.

Wonder if Bobby Abreu has anyone left and gives the Dodgers a lift with Rivera out.

You have to wonder if Charlie left Audible Groan in to start the 8th because he thought the game was already out of reach. I would have loved to see Lee go one more inning but I guess they had him on a pitch count because he hadn't pitched in a while. If this bullpen suckitude keeps up much longer you'll see them having to drag the starters off the mound kicking and screaming.

I just read a story on Philly.com and had to rub my eyes to make sure it was actually what I was reading. This, apparently, is a real quote from Uncle Chollie about our hitters being overly aggressive at the plate(and admittedly, I am a card-carrying member of the group that thinks Chollie has to go):

"But I can't stand there during the game and go up to home plate and say, 'Ehh, don't swing at this pitch now.' I can't do that. If I could, I would.'"

Um, ever hear of the take sign, Chollie?

It's not about giving guys take signs up 3-1 in the count. It's about them only swinging if it's a pitch they can drive, not flailing at it and popping it up.

"If there is a worse place than Hell, I am in it now."

--Abraham Lincoln after Hooker lost the Battle of Chancellorsville, and Ruben Amaro Jr. after Charlie Manuel lost three in a row to the Mets.

Ryan, I seriously do not see a heavily backloaded contract in play. Hamels won't have to settle for a backloaded deal anywhere else. And even if they knocked his socks off with such a deal, it would be so punitive to the Phillies in the out years that it would be a terrible deal to make.

NEPP - my original post about Drabek was in response to him being described as "blue-chip." He is most decidedly NOT blue-chip, and is far closer to being a non-prospect than a blue-chip one. You have already downgraded his performance from "solid" to "better than Kendrick if you consider how much less he's making" in light of the facts. Your argument has backslid pretty precipitously, no?

JRide,

You may be right, but Lee took $4.5M less the first year of his deal. I can't speak for Hamels, obviously, but he is already rich and wants to win. And on the back end of the deal, Halladay and Lee would be gone and the luxury tax limit significantly higher.

Actually, according to Cot's, Lee took home $11M in the first year of his deal and will average around $23M for the rest of the deal. There's a strong precedent.

DARIN RUF!!!!!!

Hamels already makes $15M, its not like giving him +$20M/yr is some impossible jump.

The Lee deal is below. I really don't see why they couldn't do the same thing for Hamels, even if it's higher, running through 2018

----

5 years/$120M (2011-15), plus 2016 option

1:$11M, 12:$21.5M, 13:$25M, 14:$25M, 15:$25M, 16:$27.5M club option ($12.5M buyout)

Last year's team got huge contributions from Bastardo & Mayberry. If Bastardo can't pitch like a future closer, and Mayberry can't be at least an average leftfielder then the Phils will have to find guys who can.

Those back-loaded contracts always work out great. What could be more team-friendly than a contract in which the biggest sum comes due at the precise moment when the player's performance is most likely to be in significant decline?

***"Amaro: Phils could be July sellers"***

Yeah...that's depressing.

Ah, off days. And that reassuring feeling that the Phillies can't possibly lose.

I remember the last time someone used that Animal House quote- Heather responded with "Um the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor" and then made fun of the person without ever realizing it was a movie. When she was told it was a movie she acted like Animal House was some rare art house picture a select few have heard of.

"Hamels already makes $15M, its not like giving him +$20M/yr is some impossible jump."

That's a very good point. It's not like we'd have to expand the payroll by $20+M per year to re-sign him.

What is this Animal House you speak of?

Pence for Youk is a terrible idea, by the way. If you are moving Pence (and I don't know why you would unless you want a total tear down of this team) you should be getting Middlebrooks or Boegarts & a pitching prospect & a reliever. That's less than we gave up to get him, but they'd get 1 less years of control.

Or we could be July buyers! Hey oh!

this season is incredibly depressing so far. i guess all of us should have seen it coming. we went all in the last few years. we won it '08, choked big time every year since. it's pathetic. i have been a phillies fan for 30 years and i am wondering about all that wasted time and energy i devoted to a baseball team. there are much more important things to worry about...better things to do with my time then sit through 3 hours of excruciating torture almost daily.

Good Lord, the doom & gloom here is a bit much. I think the Phils have decided to emulate the Cardinals' last 2 WS champs. Sneak into the playoffs by the skin of your teeth and then win the whole thing b/c no one takes you seriously.

"Over? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Nothing is over until we decide it's over!"

This is one of the all time movies quotes. I thank clout for posting it. I try to use this when family members are ready to throw in the towel over some setback. This is what Cholly needs to tell the players after KK blows the lead and sucks the wind out of the team's sails.

The flaw in the Moronocracy's premise that all of Rube's contract extensions have been a mistake is that they do not say who the replacements would've been and what the result would've been for the team's W-L record over the past few years.

One exception is Jack, who said Howard could easily be replaced by Adam Dunn. So we can speculate what the difference on last year's team would've been between Howard at 1B and Dunn at 1B.

That quote from Animal House is a classic, but I have come to associate it w/ the certainty of an impending loss as it's been entirely overused by the Phanavision crew when the Phils are down in the late innings at CBP. So in answer to the question, "Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

Yes. Yes, it was.

Schwimmer tweeted out Congrats to Diekman, Valdes, and Luna for getting called up. No confirmation anywhere else though.

Salisbury: According to Michael Schwimer, Phils are calling up Jake Diekman, Raul Valdes and Hector Luna.

Season Saved!

*yawn*

Help is on the way!!

Luna over Fontenot? Odd.

If that's true we know 1 going down is Savery, then probably Nix to the DL, and maybe Bastardo to the DL too since they're bringing up 2 lefties.

Valdes is godawful but, as the the guy who just advocated that we "throw a bunch of sh*t against the wall and see what sticks," I am in no position to criticize the move. He does, after all, qualify as "sh*t."

I just hope it's not Chooch to the DL. That's about the last thing the Phillies need right now.

Valdes has got some big shoes to fill. Juna Perez struck out the side on 9 pitches vs Atlanta.

It'll be interesting to see what Rube does next year. Contreras, Vic, Polly, Schneider and Blanton all need to get replaced. Will he sign Cole? The Mayberry experiment looks to be a failure. We still have to carry Utley and his 15 Mill contract health issues.

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