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Friday, May 11, 2012

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Sweet...I love it when a thread comment of mine almost immediately becomes a new post.

This is a very funny reversal of roles...though we could likely finally get d'Arnaud back as Rube has wanted to do for 2 years now.

Oh for the love of Gawd! The Phillies are interested in Jose Bautista which is about as much of as story as this one. LOL.

Cool let's throw in the young man lawrie and that young leftfielder who is stuck in Aaa and we got a deal

Well, Bautista would fit right in with our current lineup given his hitting issues this year.

This story smells like a Phillies PR plant; interesting that just as criticism of Rube & Cholly & the team's performance grows louder, we're suddenly getting unconfirmed reports about 'possible' trades. See, Rube says, we're doing something!

Bautista for Hamels, given their ages, is a mistake of huge proportions. It's worse than including someone like, say, Gio Gonzalez as a toss in to a bad deal. It's as bad as trading Dick Allen for Willie Montanez, or Richie Ashburn for John Buzhardt, or Any Body for C.J. Henry.

The Phils would never do that.

Get Brett Lawrie and D'Arnaud back..

Great year to be a seller, it seems, with guys like Hamels and Victorino close to free agency. Lots of hungry teams like Toronto just dying to slip into the postseason, now have a real shot because of the expanded structure. Can always sign Hamels as a free agent, which seems to be the track he's on anyway.

whaaat!?! The only way I'd be ok with this is if Hoaward & Utley are done for the year. If those 2 don't come back then we might as well pack it in. Rube would presumably know better than me if that's the case. I say "presumably" since he didn't seem to know anything coming into Spring Training. Victorino is expendable but I do hope Hamels stays. Toronto has d'Arnaud, Gose, Snider, and a bevy of hard throwing, high upside pitchers to offer. Thing with d'Arnaud is, if you trade for him, you basically put a clock on Chooch's time here. This would be Ruiz's last year as a Phillie.

If we're still playing .437 ball in a couple months, we could definitely make a killing at the deadline dumping Vic, Hamels and Blanton even (if he's still healthy/effective). We could probably get back 5-6 good prospects along with some other Org filler pieces.

However, I'd be completely and utterly shocked if we're still playing .437 ball in a couple months.

Blue Jays are not trading Lawrie for anything. He's cheap as dirt, under team control for the next 50 years and he's productive at a difficult position to fill. He's like Evan Longoria or Troy Tulowitski were a few years ago. They aren't trading Lawrie period, and especially not for a short-timer/guy they have to give big money to if they want to keep him.

AA made a killing on the Marcum/Lawrie trade.

NEPP: I would be wary of dealing with AA, he doesn't often lose on a deal.

So would I...Rube against AA in a trade is like beating a special needs kid with a rubber hose.

~waits for Phlipper to rip him for making a special needs kid joke~

Red Sox in desperate need of pitching. Blanton would be their #1 starter at this point. If we do become sellers (and I hope we don't) I could see sending Blanton there for a B-level prospect.

Cherington might not be the greatest GM on earth but I'm sure he can look up Blanton's AL East splits.

Might not get a bunch of traction there.

Blanton and a prospect for Youk and toss Youk in LF.

Like I said in the last thread, goodbye Cole & Vic. Now when Cole goes, how's RAJ gonna replace him? He's gotta pay someone else.

Youk interview on ESPN.com today, he said he'd have to hit 75 homeruns to make up for his fielding in left.

***Now when Cole goes, how's RAJ gonna replace him? He's gotta pay someone else.***

I will say this without any hyperbole: Not resigning Cole Hamels will be the biggest mistake in franchise history. It HAS to happen.

DPatrone: trade Hamels, re-sign Oswalt. . . I see that working out about as well as the Cliff Lee trade. Maybe he can do the trade and then re-sign Hamels like he did with Lee, which partly made up for not getting anything for Lee. . .partly.

We know they aren't going to trade lawrie. We are making suggestions to rube since we all know he is a BL. Hope that Stanford degree comes in hand and we get some useful pcs. Unlike the lee deal. that type of deal is what it is going to take. Doesnt really sound like chase is gonna be back at all. His knees are telling him so. So I won't be shocked when we deal all three ( Blanton and Vic def).

The only reason to trade Hamles or not re-sign him is because you've decided to re-allocate the money to a hitter. Anyone up for watching Josh Hamilton patrol center for 110 games a year?

"~waits for Phlipper to rip him for making a special needs kid joke~"

NEPP -

Sorry, but making jokes about people who "just lay there" while getting raped is phenomenally stupid.

There's just no way around it. I'm wasn't feigning outrage or implying anything about you personally. I was just pointing out that it was a phenomenally stupid comment.

If you can't see why it was such a stupid comment, that's on you.

Hamels will re-sign with the Phils.

Book it.

Well, I don't know that it would be the worst decision in franchise history, but I will say this. If you are choosing between the two, you have to re-sign Hamels and let Victorino go.

I know that it goes against everything Rube believes in (signing aging position players to huge deals), but it's probably right to let Shane walk. He just needs to find a way to get some younger positional talent into the system.

If Chase is going to retire (or be out for the year) and you can't turn May & Co. into a similar level of hitter than becoming a seller as a 1 year re-load is not a dumb play. Figure Howard back next year still have Lee, Halladay, Worely, & Pence. A team with those pieces can re-load quick. That said, I'd be surprised if they were giving up on the year on May 11th.

Hook: in that case, why not Cole to Washington for Bryce Harper?

i don't get why people would be reluctant to trade hamels, if the decision is eventually made to sell. at this point, is the deal he'd take now to resign that much different than the FA deal? i'm not so sure. and you'd get a haul for him, and then you could go and try to resign him.

i don't think it's time to sell, but if they're at .500 and 8 games back by July, then it's worth considering.

Rube apparently feels timing is vital when he insists on going out fast in the off season to give top dollar to his primary target. In effect, he likes to set the market. If thats his philosophy, don't stop now.
Hamels is not accecpting a hometown discount. Negotiations will bring harder feelings. Hamels also can see the writing on the wall.
Rube should let teams know Hamels is available right now while many more teams feel they are "in it" this year.
Look to get the best haul of talented young position players available. Getting the Yankees, Red Soxs, Blue Jays, Tigers, Rangers etc. all in an early bidding war and afraid of the competition getting Hamels should benefit us geatly.
IMHO Rube's obsession with pitching and lack of foresight (especially knowing last year the status and age of his entire infield)put us in this position. Time to change your thinking Rube.

What makes anyone think the Phillies will pursue and re-sign Cole Hamels in the offseason based on their actions so far? He's gone anyway so trade him for the big haul but there is no way on God's earth he will ever re-sign with the Phillies. And, it will be a sad day. I detest RAJ.

Considering that the RedSox are in even worse shape than the Phillies for 2012, it's hard to see why they would be interested in a half-season rental of Blanton.

If we are in bad shape, why not trade Pap to the NYY for Robinson cano?

Yeah, let's throw in the towel. It's already May.

I think Vic should probably be traded at the deadline anyway...Regardless of how the team is doing...I think he would get some good pieces back and he would be a bad guy to resign anyway.

***If we are in bad shape, why not trade Pap to the NYY for Robinson cano?***

Somehow, I dont know that they'd go for that.

Trading Hamels &/or Vic isn't an entirely ridiculous idea. The problem is r00b would be the one doing the trading, & I doubt anyone here -- myself certainly included -- trusts the man to get fair value in return.

"If we are in bad shape, why not trade Pap to the NYY for Robinson cano?"

Have you looked at the NYY bullpen?

I don't believe any of the trade scenarios outlined in Jason's thread header will ever happen. I'm still looking for the "panic button" to be reinstated in the thread header photos.

Nepp - how dare you! think before you send those kind of statements-- it"s mean spirited & hateful - no matter how humorous - your thimble mind thinks it is!!

Trading paps was tongue in cheek - sort of ..

Can't see Toronto trading their top prospects for rentals.

This team doesn't need a "Panic" button, it needs a "NUKE" button, like the one beside the Reagan puppet's bed in the original "Land of Confusion" video.

Trade rumor talk in May? Would you really believe what Ken Rosenthal says.at this point in the season?.. I think it's done for PR purposes only..

But who knows?

This story reeks of the insane Lee trade; i.e., Rube getting together with a long-time trading partner and hashing out a deal without even offering Hamels around to the rest of baseball. Surely he's wised up some by now...

I'm willing to bet the Phils' FO has considered an "armageddon" scenario in which Utley can't play anymore, Howard's a shell of his former self, Halladay starts to decline rapidly as many 35-year olds do, etc. and the season's a total wash. If that were the case, why wouldn't the team consider trading Hamels, Victorino, Blanton, etc. for a re-boot year?
If the Phils are actually serious about committing to Hamels at the market value for his next contract, they could still sign him as a FA, but with a haul of good to excellent prospects in hand as well.
Of course, I don't think this is going to even be considered until the ASB, but I'm sure the scenario's at least been discussed at some point.

As a fanatic Phan, I immediately called my Toronto associate to find out the scoop but he is "on holiday" in Macau.
Wtf?

If you felt you had to deal, Texas is the team to try and go after, not that they need any help. Profar & Olt would look nice is red pinstripes.

TTI - Agreed on both accounts. Stunned if Vic is resigned.

If you trade Vic though, the Phils take a huge hit though defensively and to a lesser degree offensively without a replacement. It really hurts their chances to both makes the playoffs and to a much lesser degree succeed in the playoffs.

If you trade Vic, you trade Hamels too. Burn the house down & trade other pieces too including Blanton, Polanco, etc.

Just don't think Vic gets you all that much at the deadline. Hamels should at least command a top prospect who is already at MLB level or ready to step in immediately as a full-time starter next year.

JBird - Yes, yes they would.

If RAJ had considered an "armageddon" scenario at all during the off-season, maybe he would have put a better roster together in the first place

Conspiracy theory:

Utley says still no timetable for his return. Does Amaro know that Utley is worse off than he/Phils are publicly letting on and that he will be unlikely to take the field this year for any period of time?

This franchise will rue the day they get rid of Hamels, if it happens.

You have to be way, way out of it to even consider something like this. And even then, you'd better get a haul in return.

Anyway, of course they will listen to offers. Rube is just laying some ground work in case something like this does have to come to fruition.

I'm much more worried about the scenario MG just mentioned about Utley, which seems more and more likely with every passing day.

Last place, it looks like a place we'll be residing in for a while as we lose all our good players for untested minor leaguers, if all of these good players walk away.

The same reason the likes of Toronto have hope is the same reason why the Phillies won't be sellers this year.

I'd hate losing Hamels(at all) for nothing, but we need Hamels for 2012 just as much as anyone else does.

If we're really this bad up until July then its a no brainer to sell, but I just can't imagine that happening.

Gotta think there'd be a point when the Phils are doing bad enough they'd just shut Utley down and hope he can play next year.

What do you do with Utley? He's spending all this time strengthening the muscles around his knee, but as soon as he begins taking grounders he feels enough pain that he can't continue.

What's going to happen if he's able to take the field in a game? You have to assume that whatever rehab work he's doing will be negated as soon as he's playing in games.

By the way, the idea that any team, let along the Phillies, is considering itself a "seller" on May 11, and is discussing trading players the likes of Victorino and Hamels, is absolutely nuts.

There's no point in legitimating this story or thinking that some moves are impending. My guess is that this whole thing (the CSN interview yesterday, and this leak) is a half-hearted attempt by Amaro to "inspire" the team from the front office. It will disappear and be irrelevant within weeks, if not days.

Rosenthal is a tabloid sports journalist and a buffoon. He's piggy backing on the RAJ comments from the day before. Ingnore the bowtie.

Whew the sky is falling fast. As Rosenthal suggests in his piece it is likely that the Phils could deal Hamels then just re-sign him after the season but I don't see that happening.

I'd trade Victorino yesterday. Dealing him would fall under the "changing of the guard" approach which desperately needs to happen here. With Victorino gone we'd pull out less hairs from his awful ABs (mostly from the left side) and some of his fielding blunders.

Rosenthal is the same guy who broke the Halladay/Lee trade story. Not shocking that the BJs would contact the Phils about their players.

Rosenthal is a tabloid sports journalist and a buffoon. He's piggy backing on the RAJ comments from the day before. Ingnore the bowtie.

Posted by: Bowlcut

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he the guy who broke and called the Doc signing?

Clearly, RAJ was just addressing a question about a hypothetical scenario ("IF we keep playing .438 ball, we could be sellers"). If he'd made the exact same comment on Beerleaguer, under the handle of Jack or GTown Dave or MG or me, he'd be immediately called an idiot for "declaring" the season over on May 11.

BAP -

To match a comment of yours, GTown's, or Jacks, the statement couldn't be conditional or hypothetical.

If RAJ said that it absolutely certain that the Phillies will continue to play as poorly as they have, because their entire roster stinks top to bottom except for Lee, Doc, and Hamels (and in your case, Kratz), and so they will be selling in July, then his comments would receive a similar response.

And please note, I for one have never called any of you "idiots": Negative Nancies, Debby-downers, belly-achers, whiners, and pearl-clutchers, yes, but not idiots.

For me it is clear that this team is not a World Series contender now or even before the first pitch. They didn't improve their lineup which is what desperately needed improvement. Could they fix things and get the 2nd wild card? It's possible. Will that be good enough? For me, no. In 2007 it felt great to just get in the playoffs when they won the division. Not now after the heartache of the last 2 postseasons.

Someone try to tell me this team can win the world series and do so by not using the following as the base for your argument:

1. They still have the best pitching! That's great. What did they get them last year? And do they really? Doc has had some struggles and Lee could wind up hurt again for all we know.
2. But when Howard and Utley come back they will rake! We all know the timetable for achillies injuries and we all know that not many 76 year old middle infielders hold up well.

So please tell me how it happens.

The only thing you can lean on is that the past 2 world series were for the most part terrible and terrible during the regular season.

BAP - add Joe D to the list.

And what I meant to say was the past 2 world series winners were for the most part terrible and terrible during the regular season.

Philipper, I respect your positive outlook. I'd like to see you take a stab at convincing me this team can win the world series.

Phlipper: I would be a multi-millionaire by now if only I had a quarter for every time I have presented an explicitly hypothetical worst-case scenario, only to have someone respond by saying that I had just "declared the season over."

Vic to TOR for D'Aurnaud and Gose? Hamels to TEX for Olt, Profar, and 2 other prospects? Those are really the only 2 farm systems I'd want Roob to deal with(not confident with his eye for talent), who will probably be buyers. Then try to re-sign Hamels in the offseason. In that scenario Vic won't be re-signing with us. Dom in left, Gose in center, Pence in right. Sorry chooch but D'Aurnaud catching, Olt at 3rd. Profar is future SS. May can take Blanton's place. Love to see this happen actually.

Vic to TOR for D'Aurnaud and Gose? Hamels to TEX for Olt, Profar, and 2 other prospects? Those are really the only 2 farm systems I'd want Roob to deal with(not confident with his eye for talent), who will probably be buyers. Then try to re-sign Hamels in the offseason. In that scenario Vic won't be re-signing with us. Dom in left, Gose in center, Pence in right. Sorry chooch but D'Aurnaud catching, Olt at 3rd. Profar is future SS. May can take Blanton's place. Love to see this happen actually.

Posted by: Kenny Powers

Yeah this sounds incredible.

Jbird. Harper has too many tools in his box to be on this team. He's too young. Hasn't played 6 yrs of minor ball. Doesnt wear his pants up. Too many strikes against him to be on this squad. Shame Vlad was signed we could have picked him up and our AARP meals would be cheaper.

Joe D - No insight beyond the obvious.

I think they have a shot. They won 102 games last year. They had a very strong run differential. They got limited help from Utley last year, and so with limited input from this year along with the reintroduction of Howard, and stronger bench this year, I think they can be competitive. I see reasons to think that without Utley and Howard they can be a slightly below average offense, and with them they could be average or slightly above average. That may be enough given their strong starting pitching.

Obviously, there are some negative also: there's a likely marginal decline from last year for older players, the bullpen last year was bolstered by unrepeatable help from Stutes and Bastardo.

The team has played poorly, no doubt - but that's baseball. Teams certainly have recovered from 5 games back at this point in the season.

My main contention is that to increase the chances of winning in the playoffs, the team needs to balance out somewhat of a surplus in starting pitching (when 3 top starters are sufficient) with improvement in the bullpen and in offense.

Of course, as we've seen, the playoffs are a "crapshoot," but that's a poor argument for not improving your chances.

I'd love to see the world through Phlipper's glasses

"Phlipper: I would be a multi-millionaire by now if only I had a quarter for every time I have presented an explicitly hypothetical worst-case scenario, only to have someone respond by saying that I had just "declared the season over."

BAP - no doubt. No one in the history of BLer ever let a straw man or hyperbole get in the way of making an argument.

So the real question is whether or not the negativity often found in your posts, or those of others, is really based in objective analysis or whether there's an influence of the propensity of Phillies' fans to never be happy unless they're miserable.

My main contention is that to increase the chances of winning in the playoffs, the team needs to balance out somewhat of a surplus in starting pitching (when 3 top starters are sufficient) with improvement in the bullpen and in offense.

Posted by: Phlipper (debating between cannonball and swan dive.)


But this is what people have been saying and every time they do you take issue with it and call everyone negative. I get where you are coming from in terms of the offense I just don't have any faith in either of them contributing enough.

Joe: So let me get this straight. You want someone to construct an argument why the Phillies could still win the WS, but we're not allowed to cite their tremendous starting pitching or the potential improvement of the offense after Utley and Howard return?

That's kind of like saying: please tell me how plants can photosynthesize, but do not use the following as the base for your argument:

1. They get energy from the sun.
2. They absorb carbon dioxide.

I would be a multi-millionaire by now if only I had a quarter for every time I have presented an explicitly hypothetical worst-case scenario, only to have someone respond by saying that I had just "declared the season over."

b_a_p: Indeed. It's as if we ran out to the pitchers mound in between innings & shouted "I declare this season to be over!", like Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy.

if we sell we need to pull of a heist like Texas did with Atlanta for Texeiera a few years back

Joe: So let me get this straight. You want someone to construct an argument why the Phillies could still win the WS, but we're not allowed to cite their tremendous starting pitching or the potential improvement of the offense after Utley and Howard return?

That's kind of like saying: please tell me how plants can photosynthesize, but do not use the following as the base for your argument:

1. They get energy from the sun.
2. They absorb carbon dioxide.

Posted by: bay_area_phan

I know it's tough right. That's because I have already made up in my mind that the pitching didn't win them anything last year because the bats failed them. It's also because I think that Howard and Utley won't improve things that much because of their conditions.

Kenny: Not a huge Gose fan, but if the Phils could get that for Victorino & Hamels they ought to do it whether they think they can compete or not. Those would be pretty big overpays. Trade Hamels, re-sign Oswalt & continue to compete this year, re-sign Hamels in the offseason. genius! (tongue in cheek)

I dont see Rube as capable of making such a trade. Look at the crap return he got for Cliff Lee (the one time he's ever sold off a player for prospects).

TTI,

I agree that Vic will likely go, but just curious about why you feel he's a "bad guy to resign". If it's about age and the financial circumstances of the team and his particular contract situation, I get it. But is there something else relating to him as a player or person you're talking about?

That's how I feel too NEPP and that was at a time when the rest of the league didn't even know why he was dealing Lee (therefore his return should have been better) whereas now if they go into firesale mode the return should already be lessened because well you are in firesale mode.

GTown: There ought to be a formal Beerleaguer protocol for "declaring" something. At the very least, it should require a notarized statement, if not an actual filing with the County Clerk's Office.

I dont see Rube as capable of making such a trade. Look at the crap return he got for Cliff Lee (the one time he's ever sold off a player for prospects).

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, May 11, 2012 at 12:11 PM

That's why I'd only want him looking at TOR and TEX farm systems, not a whole lot of ways to go wrong there.

I dont see Rube as capable of making such a trade. Look at the crap return he got for Cliff Lee (the one time he's ever sold off a player for prospects).

Anyone who can't conceive of a scenario in which r00b sends Hamels & Vic to Toronto for Kyle Drabek & a couple of Single A nobodies hasn't been paying attention. Gotta restock that cupboard!

Kenny: Not a huge Gose fan, but if the Phils could get that for Victorino & Hamels they ought to do it whether they think they can compete or not. Those would be pretty big overpays. Trade Hamels, re-sign Oswalt & continue to compete this year, re-sign Hamels in the offseason. genius! (tongue in cheek)

Posted by: Jbird | Friday, May 11, 2012 at 12:10 PM


There GM's are too smart to overpay like that but I can dream right? Can we just trade our GM for one of theirs?

Their*

I'm starting to get a foreboding about Chase. About two weeks ago teammates were "stunned" to see him using his lower body to swing, and he rejoined the team. Seemed pretty positive.

Now, he can't even take grounders because of discomfort in the knees and there is no timetable?

Given how things have transpired so far, it sounds like pretty bad news. I'm trying to take the attitude that they will have to count on having to finish the season without him. If he comes back at all, try to look at it as a little miracle from out of the blue.

I've written Utley off so I'm not even checking up on updates for him. So he can't even take groundballs without pain?

NEPP - Possibly but that was his only big trade so far. That was a move that was made in haste and in which Looper played a key role because he knew the Seattle minor league personnel so well after having been in charge.

Best humor of the day so far - b_a_p's photosynthesis comparison. Classic!

I dont see Utley coming back this year...or ever.

Almost 9 months off including 3 months of rehab now and he still cant take grounders?

He's done.

Sorry, that should read 7 months off...not 9. Oct-May=7

Best humor of the day so far - b_a_p's photosynthesis comparison. Classic!

Typical b_a_p, declaring the season over under the guise of photoautotroph jokes.

A few weeks ago, there was an open house for a home on our cul-de-sac that is for sale. As a curious neighbor, I went to check it out. Along the way, I started talking to a woman who had come to see the home. She said that she loved the home and it was right in her price range. The only problem was that it was a 2-story and she would not be able to negotiate the stairs without severe pain, since she suffered from Chrondomalacia.

I assume that trying to get to 3rd base on a gapper, or jumping out of the way of a sliding base runner, are probably a little more strenuous than climbing a set of stairs. It wouldn't surprise me if Utley goes through the ritual exercise of an attempted comeback, but it would surprise me if that comeback lasts very long.

I'm with NEPP on Utley. He's under contract for next year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's shut down, and they hope to salavge something with him in 2013, which seems almost as unrealistic. Sucks.

@bap...seriously.

The man is a middle infielder. If you aren't in constant motion as a middle infielder then you just flat out aren't playing the position right.

Rosenthal is a tabloid sports journalist and a buffoon. He's piggy backing on the RAJ comments from the day before. Ingnore the bowtie.

Posted by: Bowlcut

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he the guy who broke and called the Doc signing?

Morosi and Heyman had that story at the same time. He's a buffoon.

If Utley were to miss the whole season AND his contract was insured, the Phillies would at least get that money back.

So there's that. OF course, if he comes back and plays a couple games and is shut down again, they cant make a claim.

All assuming they even insured his contract back when they signed him to the largest contract ever given to a 2B...

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