Placido Polanco’s two-run double in last night’s eighth gave the Phillies a 6-4 lead and, hopefully, demonstrated some personal progress at the plate.
Since hitting the DL in July last year, Polanco has just seven extra-base hits in 238 plate appearances. That means a slugging percentage of .311 over the same span. Wilson Valdez slugged .341 last season, so ... needless to say, Polanco hasn’t been in the habit of driving the baseball since the back problems flared up just over 10 months ago. The go-ahead double last night, which came off a 95-mph fastball that Polanco was able to turn on and pull past the left fielder, was encouraging and his recent performance is a welcome change. He is 7-for-16 (.438) over his last four games with a pair of doubles.
If he can reestablish himself as a .290-.300 hitter with at least a threat of gap power, it would do worlds to solidify the top of Phils’ lineup. Polanco’s potential resurgence would give Charlie Manuel a reason to quit messing around with Shane Victorino in the two-hole, which would benefit everyone. Victorino is arguably the worst situational hitter on the team, he is hitting .143 this season when batting second, and personally, I really like him in the five spot. Some production out of Polanco would also take a little pressure off Jimmy Rollins at the top of the order.
Coming up: Tonight – Hamels (3-1, 2.73) vs. Beachy (2-1, 1.05); Wednesday – Halladay (3-2, 1.95) vs. Hanson (3-2, 3.00); Thursday – Blanton (2-3, 3.81) vs. Delgado(2-2, 6.30)
I was most impressed how he got out in front and pulled a 95 mph fastball. Don't know if he was guessing or not (probably, it was a 2-0 count), but the bat speed is at least there in some regard.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 02:44 PM
Absolutely agree, a return to form by Polanco would be a huge boost to the lineup. Hope the past four games are a sign that he is finally out of his slump.
Posted by: Dragon | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 02:46 PM
Tonight's Lineup: Rollins (SS), Polanco (3B), Victorino (CF), Pence (RF), Wigginton (1B), Nix (LF), Ruiz (C), Galvis (2B), Hamels (P).
It's nice how the 4 guys whose current OPS are farthest behind their career averages also happen to be the 4 guys at the top of the order.
- Rollins (.759) -228
- Polanco (.750) -179
- Victorino (.779) -123
- Pence (.824) -115
Rollins & Polanco in particular have absolutely murdered the offense this season. (Numbers courtesy an excellent piece by Zolecki)
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 02:56 PM
He probably was guessing. As your bat speed goes that is what you have to rely on sometimes. Ibanez is a pure guess hitter and was while he was here.
Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 02:56 PM
This seems to be Cholly's "go-to" lineup, for the most part. At least in the last week or so.
Still, Polly needs to be dropped in the order, figuring it out or not.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 02:58 PM
@GTown....Polanco is getting himself back to the mean but yeah Charlie putting these guys at the top of the order thus increasing their PA is troubling. He is loyal to a fault most of the time. It would be so incredibly easy to just switch Wigginton and Victorino too. Wigginton is only your best/most consistent hitter of late. I guess that just makes too much sense.
Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 02:59 PM
I should note, it's Cholly's "go-to" when Pierre isn't in the mix (which is more often than I'd like...).
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 02:59 PM
I just don't understand the fear in finally getting Ruiz up in the order. He is the only guy on this team who works the count and has the ability to go the other way (Wheeler splooge) if you want that in your 2-hole.
Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:00 PM
I understand the hatred for Rollins here has him pretty much written off at this point, and hoping for a productive Polanco (or even a healthy one) is quite a reach, though I'd love to be wrong on that one.
But does anyone really expect Pence and Vic to continue being so dismal? At this point, it's like the Phils are missing four starters, not just Utley and Howard. That's why I think there's hope going forward. No way will they continue to underperform this much.
Posted by: Iceman | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:03 PM
No I don't think Pence and Victorino will continue to be as god awful as they've been but until they find their footing again I don't want them in the meat of the order. Ride a hot hand here and there. Wigginton should definitely get a look at 3. 4 just seems to be a black-hole. This team just flat out doesn't have a 4-hitter sans Howard.
Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:06 PM
Phlipper: To answer your question from earlier about the coolstandings.com playoff odds: they weigh the previous season's statistics pretty heavily in their model early in the season. As the season progresses and they get more data, the previous season is given less weight.
That makes sense, I think. Otherwise, the Pirates could win 10-1 on opening day and be projected for 130 wins or something.
I'm not sure exactly how much weight the previous season has at this point. For what it's worth, they have the Phillies at .554 the rest of the way, our current pythag is .488, and last year's pythag was .633.
Posted by: DH Phils | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:08 PM
"I just don't understand the fear in finally getting Ruiz up in the order."
You don't give Cholly enough credit. He's actually batting Ruiz 7th!!! That's a huge departure.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:10 PM
Thanks DH Phils.
I figured that there must be something like that, but didn't think that they'd just go with: "The Phillies have a better shot because they have really good pitching."
Weighting the previous season's record to a diminishing degree makes sense.
Posted by: Phlipper (trying to get my Barcalounger and beer cooler atop the Benny Frank) | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:15 PM
I like Vic in the 5-spot, too.
And yes, it would be huge for the team if Polly can sustain some reasonable productivity this season. Here's hoping!
Posted by: GBrettFan | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:17 PM
I mean did I think in February that I'd be clamoring for Ty Wigginton to hit 3 for this team? Hell no. Is that almost a neccessity at this point? I think so.
Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:18 PM
The only thing I thought in February that has held true is that it is damn hard to build a lineup out of this current roster without being able to plug Howard in at 4.
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:30 PM
Hugh: Yer damn skippy.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:42 PM
Before yesterday, I thought you could tell Polanco it was a 95 mph fastball in the exact spot it was going, and he still couldn't get hit it hard enough to LF to two hop the wall - now at least we know theres a chance he can sit on fastball in a hitters count and do so. I'll take it.
Phils are dogs on the road, even with Hamels on the mound, around +108 with an o/u 6.5. Beachy has been impressive so far (3ER in 25IP), but is 0-3 in 6 starts vs the Phillies for his career.
Ruiz is 5-8 with 2 walks, 3 2B and a HR off him.
Posted by: lorecore | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:45 PM
I agree Hugh and I'm not trying to be hypercritical of Charlie because I bet I'd write their names on cards and just pull them out of a hat each night at this point. But there are some things that seem to be pretty easy to correct.
Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:46 PM
Nix should be in front of Wigginton vs RHP, seems pretty obvious to me...oh well.
Posted by: lorecore | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:47 PM
Before yesterday, I thought you could tell Polanco it was a 95 mph fastball in the exact spot it was going, and he still couldn't get hit it hard enough to LF to two hop the wall ...
So now that we know he can hit it all the Phils need is for the opposing catcher to go Crash Davis on his pitcher & tell Polanco exactly what's coming? Simple fix!
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:52 PM
GTown, that's what we have Mick Billmeyer for.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:53 PM
I like Hamels +108. With a streaky offense and after last night's 8th, I like to think that they'll put up a few runs early before they shut it down for 4 games or so.
Note that I reserve the right to change my opinion after JRoll's requisite 2nd pitch pop out to the 2B.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:56 PM
Ruiz is 5-8 with 2 walks, 3 2B and a HR off him.
Not the biggest sample size but clearly you want this hitting in the 7-hole.
Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 03:59 PM
Joe D: He's a CATCHER, duh! MLB rules clearly state catchers must bat in the bottom third of the order, & we all know Charlie is a stickler for the rules.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, May 01, 2012 at 04:19 PM
yo, another new thread (gamer).
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Posted by: Jason Kidd | Monday, May 07, 2012 at 02:25 AM
Joe D: He's a CATCHER, duh! MLB rules clearly state catchers must bat in the bottom third of the order, & we all know Charlie is a stickler for the rules.
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