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Friday, May 25, 2012

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What, they missed Cesar Hernadez? Top fiver at least.

The jump to AA is often a very rough one.

Repost from last thread, to answer lorecore:

lorecore, at its essence, that's precisely the dialog Costas/Verducci were having. They actually asked Cholly before the game if he'd consider using Paps for a 4 out save or to face the heart of the order in the 7th or 8th inning, to which Cholly replied that he'd only consider doing it in September, or when the games were "more meaningful." That spun the conversation about why NOT use your highly paid, best pitcher, in the most strategic position, rather than just saving him for if/when a save opportunity presents itself. Verducci even mentioned how they used to give out the Fireman Award for relievers (not necessarily closers) who were best in the high leverage situations, back in the 80's.

They also remarked how Cholly was certainly not in the minority of how he uses his best bullpen arm, however.

To answer your question (as if my opinion matters in any way, shape or form) yeah, I would support our best pitcher coming into the game in the 5th if the starter was clearly not the best option in an extremely high leverage situation. Ideally, however, you have a couple of guys who can handle higher leverage spots, and not have to burn your ONLY good high leverage guy. Match-ups, availability and advanced scouting would also certainly play a part in making that decision.

The DeFratus injury is a bit of a bummer. Hopefully he comes back resembling the guy who has shown considerable upside. Losing Cosart was tough, but we do have a few good young arms that make it a little more palatable.

repost from earlier in week, more relevant to topic:

Clearwater has a couple decent looking lefty starters not named Jesse Biddle.

Adam Morgan and Austin Wright, both college pitchers(and 22), are in their first full season of pro ball and getting good results. Wright is said to be around 6'4 240lb and more of a power pitcher while Morgan sits low 90s with both a curve and a slider as plus pitches. Both are tallying more than a K/IP and ERAs in the mid 3s.

I would imagine Wright starts to get some press sooner or later just because he's a big framed southpaw.

Posted by: lorecore | Wednesday, May 23, 2012 at 03:53 PM

@WP....where can I see/read this Costas-Verducci stuff? MLB Network? If so, what show was it?

May's control problems are nothnig new - and surprised JW mentioned as a result of being in AA:

A: 4.0 BB/9 in 142IP
A+: 5.2 BB/9 in 221IP
AA: 3.9 BB/9 in 48IP

Meanwhile, Jonathan Singleton, Travis d'Arnaud, Michael Taylor and Anthony Gose, the prospects lost to trades in recent years, have been largely tearing it up. Jarred Cosart has also made strides in the Houston chain.

Its been my opinion that too many people are way to quick to diminish the players that have been lost to trades over the last couple years. I'm not saying that they were bad trades, but even good trades are good because of the short term impact and potentially devastating to the long term.

I constantly here how they guys they traded aren't any good. Well, this post is quick to point out that opinion as untrue.

On the other hand the players (or player really) kept, Dom Brown, has diminished in status greatly and the haul received for Lee, have largely been extremely underwhelming.

Prospects are wild cards, always have been, always will be.

Prospects are wild cards, always have been, always will be.

Posted by: Joe D | Friday, May 25, 2012 at 02:28 PM


That may be true, but also necessary to have a few of those wild cards turn into highly productive cheap assets.

26yr old Michael Taylor and his .196 MLB average...the one that got away.

Prospects are wild cards, always have been, always will be.

Posted by: Joe D | Friday, May 25, 2012 at 02:28 PM


That may be true, but also necessary to have a few of those wild cards turn into highly productive cheap assets.

Posted by: Five-4-One

Definitely. And so far we've seen a lot of value in Mr. Galvis. For as disappointing as Brown's development has been seeing Galvis improve has helped to ease the blow.

Joe D, that was from last night's game on MLB Network. Not sure if there's any way to get to a replay of it, but Costas/Verducci were calling the game.

They also had some great conversation on the DH, and how interleague play will be interesting next year, and how the September 40 man roster call-ups creates a whole different ballgame (for the LaRussa's of the world) for the 'most important' month of the season.

May still has some control issues, but I think he's been largely solid in AA. Since the review had an overall negative outlook, I guess it was easy to go with the downside for him.

If Singleton and d'Arnaud were in our system, many would be ripping Singleton for his issues against LHP (.617 OPS) and saying d'Arnaud's .894 OPS in AAA was meaningless because he plays in a bandbox of a park in Vegas.

Ah I see. Thanks WP. I'm in market so I had the local dopes calling the game.

For now on , Sebastian Valle will simply be referred to as the 22 year old Mexican. It's somewhat like "the Virgin Connie Swail" from the Dragnet movie with Tom Hanks back in his pre-Oscar days.

The thing that is shocking to me when you go to a Reading Phils' game this year is how tiny their positional players.

Even the guy who has a little size (James, Gillies) look like rails.

May had been making progress on the control front, even in AA, for the last 2 years, until his 1st 3 starts in May. He was actually doing quite well. His last start was a disaster, but he only walked 1 guy, it was hits that killed him. If he's not hurt, I'd expect him to return to form and get that ERA back under 4. May has had a positive year so far, Tuesday's start not withstanding.

Prospects are wild cards, but you have to wonder if maybe the coaching in the minor leagues isn't doing a good enough job to bring these prospects along.

3B Cody Asche has looked very good so far in Clearwater. We might have something there.

.341 AVG/.837 OPS in a pitchers park is pretty nice for a guy in his first full season of pro ball (he played in SS A ball last year)

Carlos Alonso, who also plays 3rd base (among other positions), has very good numbers at Clearwater too. He's oldish for A+ but has hit pretty well at every level. Is a strong candidate for a mid-season jump to AA.

Of course, both these guys will be blocked for the next 5 years, after RAJ gives a long-term extension to Polanco.

If pitchers don't progress in the minor league system, then either they're not drafting well or the instruction is poor.

I suppose the Phils have to figure out which it is.

They also had some great conversation on ... how the September 40 man roster call-ups creates a whole different ballgame (for the LaRussa's of the world) for the 'most important' month of the season.

L.A. rails on this point every year, & I have to say I agree w/ him. Makes for a very interesting argument, though.

For those making the argument that Beltran is a better hitter against RHP, stop being disingenuous, or at least look at the stats.

Career:
vs LHP: .893
vs RHP: .851

2012:

vs LHP: .968
vs RHP: 1.052

2011:

vs LHP: .923
vs RHP: .908

2010:

vs LHP: 1.009
vs RHP: .701

2009:

vs LHP: 1.013
vs RHP: .876

So basically in 2009-2011, he hit LHP better than RHP in every year, and in 2010, significantly better. Thsi year, he may be hitting RHP better, but he still has a friggin .968 OPS against LHP, and since he's hit LHP better for his career AND the last 3 seasons, I'd say that's more of a fluke than anything.

And even if it isn't a fluke, a guy hitting .968 against LHP vs. 1.052 against RHP isn't nearly enough of a reason to eschew bringing in Papelbon to face him.

Of course, all of this ignores the fact that Bastardo ALSO was left in to face Matt Holliday as well, when you have a guy in the bullpen in Papelbon to whom handedness of the batter is supposed to irrelevant.

Oh, and would you look at that: Papelbon demolishs both LHB and RHB and actually has slightly better numbers against LHB.

If your goal as a manager was to put your team in as good of a situation to win last night's game as possibe, you bring Papelbon in there. Simple as that.

Generally agree with the author. Not a huge fan of legalizing sports gambling but all the outlawing it has done is enable organized crime to have one remaining lifeline and send lots of money offshore to a lot of dubious places.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/legalizing-sports-gambling-is-smartest-bet-yet.html;_ylt=At9NnWkcTKGwAz8Gs4tW39Y5nYcB

My bet is you see legalized gambling sooner than later in most US states over the next several years.

Gilles Castro and Cesar if keep performing will be top ten guys. I will wait till July and see who they duffle around and how the draft class does in short seasons. The only two prospects that I would want back would be Jon and Travis. Should have traded brown happ and a lesser prospect when the philles were leaders for doc. Damn angles upped ante and philles had to go up.

Fatal: Beltran has more power from the right side which boosts most of his OPS numbers you are listing. He is a good hitter, period, but Bastardo gave you a good match up with a base open.

As for Holliday, he was facing him with just 1 man on 1B and two outs, hardly a panic situation. Bastardo and Ruiz pitched him very carefully as they should. Phils executed well, period.

hook: Leandro Castro has went from sleeper to underperforming in my eyes. I really like his skill set and energy, but he's just not putting it all together.

Fata: Putting aside Beltran, there actually WAS a cogent argument for sticking with Bastardo against Holliday: Papelbon & Holliday both have reverse lefty/righty splits for their careers, while Bastardo's splits are close to even. If you believe those splits to be meaningful, then Holliday against a tough LHP is actually a better matchup for us than Holliday against a tough RHP.

If that's not good enough for you, here's a more compelling argument in favor of sticking with Bastardo: the guy warming in the pen was not Papelbon, but Contreras.

Gilles, Hernandez, Alonso, Asche and others are all performing well. A lot of times prospects shoot up and down the prospect lists over time. Gilles was a top prospect who only fell off because he has been hurt.

As people have noted, May was dominating in April. He's had a rough May, but that will happen to young pitchers.

Yeah, the thing that was really outrageous was warming up Contreras when Bastardo started racking up pitches.

I mean, I was ticked off with Manuel for leaving Bastardo in for Holliday to begin with, but at least an argument could be had (if you're going to play the "he's trying to build his confidence" card) that he wanted it to be 'his inning.' I think it's a stupid argument, but it's an argument.

But warming up Contreras was just doubling down on stupid. The only cogent explanation for Manuel not throwing Papelbon in for 4+ out saves is that the training staff and/or the front office truly believes that he has worn down in September/October the past few seasons specifically because of 4, 5 and 6 out appearances, and they are saving him for September. There is no other rational explanation.

Leandro Castro sucks. He's in his sixth minor league season and he still hasn't a clue about strike zone management. He drew 5 walks for the entire 2011 season. 5! That might be forgivable if he had some fantastic offensive skill, like the ability to hit .320 or steal 60 bases or hit 35 homeruns. But he has no such skill. He's average across the board, except on defense. He's like a poor man's Carlos Gomez.

The only cogent explanation for Manuel not throwing Papelbon in for 4+ out saves is that the training staff and/or the front office truly believes that he has worn down in September/October the past few seasons specifically because of 4, 5 and 6 out appearances, and they are saving him for September. There is no other rational explanation.

I tend to agree. Unfortunately the FO would seem to have neglected to consider that they might need Papelbon just to get this particular group to a meaningful Sept/Oct. It's annoying to me that the powers that be are treating this team as if it's in the same mold as Phillies teams of the past few years when it's clearly a comparatively inferior product. If they wind up missing the Postseason by a few games or less, the utter lack of flexibility or even remotely creative thinking will have made the difference.

I guess the logic of warming up Contreras -- if "logic" be the proper word -- was as follows:

You've already decided that Bastardo is going to face Beltran -- and, presumably, Beltran was going to be his last batter either way. If Bastardo retires him, the inning is over & you warm up Papelbon to use in the 9th. If Beltran gets a hit, the game is either tied or we're losing and, since it's a road game, you're not allowed to use Papelbon in that situation.

Of course, even that ridiculous line of logic fails to account for the possibility of a walk, or a hit which does not score the runner from 2nd. If that had happened, Cholly would have been forced to choose between Contreras or an obviously tiring Bastardo, with the game still on the line.

Just curious - how much longer will the pissy pants posse whine about how the Phillies offense "stinks?"

They've climbed up the charts: 7th in OPS and SLG, 6th in OBP, 3rd in AVG, and tied for 6th in runs scored (albeit in more games than those immediately following, and averaging fewer runs per game, but not at a level that's statistically significant).

Remember how much whining and whining there was after 13 games into the season?

Jack - was it the bottom three or bottom five that you predicted for the Phils offensive production?

You'd think that after similar whining early in the season the last two years, the posse would have learned about small sample sizes.

Yeah, like that's going to happen.

Rollins (SS), Pierre (LF), Pence (RF), Ruiz (C), Victorino (CF), Wigginton (1B), Polanco (3B), Galvis (2B), Lee (P).

It's really gonna suck to lose to Kyle friggin' Lohse.

The thing I'm most interested in seeing is Jonathan Pettibone and Jonathan Papelbon on the same roster,

Iceman - I think that it's pretty obvious that Charlie's thinking is primarily that unless it is extremely unusual circumstances, you don't use the closer except in a limited number of circumstances.

The second aspect is that he always leans towards viewing his players optimistically - that they will get the job done if given a chance. Now that, obviously, doesn't always work and it certainly is legit to question the thinking from a statistical basis - but once again, you should be doing so with a realistic view of the likely comparative costs and benefits of each option.

The amount of hand-wringing about a choice which has truly tiny marginal advantages (assuming that past performance of Bastardo and Pap are the basis for judging probabilities - which is problematic unto itself given the likely number of outliers - lucky bloop hits, line shot outs, etc.) is truly stunning.

Do people forget that the previous night Pap had given up a run to a far inferior team offensively?

***Do people forget that the previous night Pap had given up a run to a far inferior team offensively?***

In a non-save situation on a pitch that he never would have thrown in a close game...but yeah.

Really? He would have been trying harder and consequently gone with a different pitch selection if it were a save situation?

Interesting.

I doubt he would have thrown a challenge fastball like that in a save situation.

Phlipper, you obviously would defend any move that Charlie makes, but even if your "marginal advantage" idea were true (and again, a rested Paps vs a tiring Bastardo is hardly a marginal advantage), is it not the managers job to try and take advantage of every marginal advantage that he can? Even if Paps gave you and 80% to get out of the inning and Bastardo only gave you a 75% chance, why purposefully go with the worse odds?

And, do you REALlY think that was Manuel's thinking? Of course it wasn't! This is a guy who used Michael friggin' Schwimmer (now currently spitting seeds in AAA) in the bottom of the 8th w/ a 2 run lead and the bases juiced w/ 1 out!! Manuel just refuses to use his closer in these "pre-save" situations.

Last nighht irks me so much not because of the specific situations, but because it's an ongoing tradition w/ Manuel from which he fails to learn.

BAP, even if Carlos Beltran's OPS numbers are skewed due to SLG, he seems to be an overall better hitter against LHP, and any hit would've likely scored a run. Papelbon gave you the best opportunity to get their best hitter out, especially since he's been historically better against LHB. Gotta go w/ the odds.

Ok - so you've gone from "he never would have thrown it," to you "doubt he would have" thrown it.

Sure, his pitch selection does change to some degree based on circumstances, but Pap often challenges hitters in save situations, and the logic of your position that he's more likely to give up runs in non-save situations.

Do you really want to go there?

Fat: Holliday, not Beltran. Holliday has hit righties better over his career than he has hit lefties.

Phlipper, I don't believe Paps pitches differently in save/non-save situations. If your point is that Papelbon gives up runs from time to time, and that he's not infallible, thanks, but his non-zero career ERA was a dead give away of that information.

You've said nothing yet to refute the notion that the Beltran AB was the most important one in the game (at the time and in hindsight) and that Manuel purposefully chose to put his team in a worse situation to win the game. You can yammer on and on about all this convoluted cost/benefit nonsense and try to invent possible ideas that might exculpate Manuel, but the cold hard truth is what it is.

Is everyone forgetting that Bastardo has been outstanding this season? Started off a little slowly, but he's right back to the guy who was almost unhittable last year. I think THAT weighed into Charlie's decisions. He has faith in the guy. And he's certainly earned that faith.

And it's been mentioned, but Paps looked to have worn down last season. Charlie has to be aware that the guy isn't one of those rubber armed pitchers who can go 80 games a year.

I often think Charlie falls down in the strategy department and in handling relievers. But last night was simply not one of those times.

"Phlipper, you obviously would defend any move that Charlie makes, but even if your "marginal advantage" idea were true (and again, a rested Paps vs a tiring Bastardo is hardly a marginal advantage),"

Paps had thrown the night before (and given up a run doing so), and Bastardo had more rest from his previous appearance - so your difference in how "rested" they are is mitigated - as is the relevance of how tired a pitcher is after throwing 20 pitches anyway, and how much that actually degrades his performance. But when you're seeking to confirm biases, then it certainly is easy to overlook those factors.

"Is it not the managers job to try and take advantage of every marginal advantage that he can?"

It really is interesting how often you have to repeat things sometimes before it sinks in. But I'm a patient man.

Yes - the marginal advantage is something that is certainly worth considering, but you throw out the value of doing that when you over-estimate the marginal advantages involved. Rather typically, the pissy pants posse completely overlooks any possibilities that conflict with their orthodoxy.

I and other posters have talked about potential reasons for Charlie's decision. I think the most likely explanation is that he's not exactly mensa material - but on the other hand, his approach of trusting his players, even if it isn't based on an explicit reasoning through a cost/benefit analysis comparing the advantages of showing confidence in his players weighed against statistical probabilities - have lead to unprecedented success in the history of the franchise.

If you think of most teams that have had the same kind of success as Charlie has had with the Phillies, I think that you'd be hard pressed to find a team that had less talent to work with. Think of the Reds or the Braves or the Yankees during their extended periods of perennial success. Do you honestly think that Charlie has had a commensurate amount of talent to work with? Certainly, I'd say that with bullpen personnel, he has perennially gotten better performance than anyone would have predicted just looking at the rosters at the beginnings of the seasons.

And once again, fata, despite a long line of belly-achers who have contended so, I never "defended" leaving Bastardo in there. I've said numerous times that I would have brought Paps in - but I will continue to point out how all this hand-wringing is overwrought, and the arguments presented are, for the most part, based on a laughable over-estimation of the marginal advantages.

Man, I sure hope the game thread comes up soon, because reading the back-and-forth on Papeltrerastardo and who should have been pitching in the 8th last night is excruciating. The same arguments over and over again.

Kinda like watching paint dry.

"26yr old Michael Taylor and his .196 MLB average...the one that got away.

Posted by: lorecore | Friday, May 25, 2012 at 02:31 PM"


lorecore, who do you think will have a better MLB career, and why - Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown?


(I've never seen Taylor play so I have no opinion.)

"And once again, fata, despite a long line of belly-achers who have contended so, I never "defended" leaving Bastardo in there."

Now, where would anyone get the silly idea that you defended the decision?

And fata - I know you were just throwing a number out there, and it would be fascinating to read someone's attempt at a comprehensive cost/benefit analysis, but I'd doubt that if the marginal advantage were as much as 5%.

Phlipper, it was the wrong decision. When you point out things like "maybe he was showing faith in Bastardo" as a reason for why he left him in, you're acting like that's a cure all. You're assuming that that's a worthy reason to eschew using your best pitcher in the most crucial spot in the game. You'd also have to argue that Manuel was also shwoing "faith" in Schwimer in the ATL game. Do you believe that?

The reason Manuel did is because the 9th inning is Papelbon's inning and that's when he pitches. Dubee actually said this a while back. No matter how many possible answers you posit, that's the reason Paps wasn't used last night. And that's a BAD reason.

"Now, where would anyone get the silly idea that you defended the decision?"

I said all along, numerous times, I would have brought Paps in, but that I was laughing at the arguments based on over-evaluations of the marginal advantages.

That people said over and over that I was "defending" the decision doesn't meant that I actually was "defending" the decision.

Another one bites the dust:

Pirates DFA'd Nate McLouth.

Phlipper's not here to engage in discussion, or even to simply share a different POV. He's here to be "right", & no amount of patient reasoning to outright argument will change that. It's my personal opinion that one who truly believes what one is saying needs no outside affirmation, but that's somewhat beside the point. In any event I humbly suggest that those who become frustrated by the astounding intractability of such a personage do what I do, & cease responding. Trolls of any stripe never go away entirely -- although "Mr. Met", at least, appears to respect the concept of brevity -- but at least you'll have the satisfaction of knowing that you didn't take the bait.

"The reason Manuel did is because the 9th inning is Papelbon's inning and that's when he pitches."

I agree that was the primary factor. But you're creating a false dichotomy when you distinguish that from the other aspects of Charlie's approach.

His approach is one of establishing routine and sticking to it through thick and thin - at least in part because he's thinking optimistically about his players and because he believes in showing confidence in his players. There is certainly ample evidence of him espousing that philosophy and such a philosophy is relevant to the situation of not pulling Bastardo and limiting the circumstances where he uses Paps. And he's not completely inflexible: my guess is that it's true that if it were a late season and crucial game he'd take a different approach.

He has taken a team with large contributions from a 3rd basement who was "washedup" for three years, a shortstop who has been "washedup" for at least that long, many innings from a "washedup" LFer, many innings from minor-league level 2nd basemen, a 1B who is "over-rated," and "not-elite," a catcher who has had 1/4 season of all-star level play, and a competent but not great CFer, a bullpen that has had an assortment of cast-offs, and a starting rotation with significant contributions from such sought after pitchers as Blanton, KK, Myers, Moyer, Happ, Worley, that Korean guy whose name I forget, etc., etc. I'd say that he's doing something right. And if you want to argue that he's had a championship level roster and so you would expect that he'd have championship level results, then don't forget that you'd have to attribute that to the very same FO that the belly-achers say is comprised of morons.

MG, you do realize sports betting is legislated on federal level and it would take organized votes there or lawsuits questioning the Constitutional status and a high enough court to even allow wider acceptance, right?

Oh, Gtown, please, please, "affirm" me.

I live to be "affirmed" by someone who spends game thread after game thread denigrating the players on the team that he roots for, the manager of that team, and the FO of the team.

Because I respect the logical skills you display and if you pay attention to me my self-esteem will somehow be lifted.

Making assumptions about anything on May 25th is foolish.

Then again, it's what keeps Beerleaguer in business.

I am going out of town for the weekend, GTown - so you will have a reprieve from being forced to read my overly-long posts.

Oh. Right. I forgot. You don't read them, do you? You prove that by not responding (by announcing to others that you don't respond to my posts), even though you don't think that not responding will change my behavior.

Did anyone see in the last thread where Jack said Bastardo is as good as Papelbon?

Did I misread that?

So, to review his posts over the past 5 years, in JackWorld, Adam Dunn > Ryan Howard, Bastardo > Papelbon and J.D. Durbin > Kyle Kendrick.

I miss King Of The Bop. Now there's a guy whose posts were right to the point. Ahhh sweet conciseness.

Dunn seems to be doing pretty good compared to Howard. It's a shame you didn't man up and bet your savior.

Phlipper: Your problem is that you take GTown Dave seriously. His posts are not serious. They are meant to be over the top and amusing, and they are.

For one thing, no human being could be that stupid, so obviously it's broad-form humor.

You can make a good case on either side of the Paps/Bastardo debate. I have no opinion one way or the other.

I will say this: 29 other MLB managers use their setup/closer the same way Charlie does and I doubt more than one or two of them (if that many) would've yanked Bastardo for Paps.

That doesn't make it right, of course.

Good point, clout. Part of his schtick is being over the top, kind of like BAP.

I over-reacted.

Of course, it seems that the belly-achers are uniformly unaware that part of my schtick is being over the top also. I think that fata gets it sometimes in spite of himself. That boy has potential.

R.G.: Jack's declaration was 3 years ago. How do they compare over the past few years?

If you'd like to make a bet over who does best over the next 3 years, I'm game.

Oh Phlipper, I get it. I just. Love to debate/argue. Also, I genuinely think you're fundamentally wrong 90% of the time, which makes it easier to engage you. What the else would I do on this site all day?

The idea was to dump you off BL after this season. I don't know if I will want to wait 3 years for you to leave. I guess we'll just have to wait til they cut off your Internet in the old bastards retirement home.

Darin Ruf is doing really well in Reading --- he's only 25 --,yet not considered a prospect -- batting .330. Since when is that considered prospect material?

Darin Ruf is doing really well in Reading --- he's only 25 --,yet not considered a prospect -- batting .330. Since when is that considered prospect material?

over the top works when it's funny. Not when you're an a-hole.

Yo, new thread

"For one thing, no human being could be that stupid,..."


Don't bet on it, clout.

Let me remind you of Sir Alden, mvptommyd, b00b and others.

there have also been a few trolls that are fans of other teams that have stopped by.

Has EFF updated the numbers yet? What's that, 9 out of their last 13?

Instead of rankings on potential, I'd like to see Beerleaguer do a list to predict:
"The next 10 players with no experience with the Phillies currently in the Phillies farm system who will reach the Phillies (or another major league team) . I throw in that qualifier since no one can predict if Amaro will deal the franchise's best prospects for established major leaguers, (which he has a definite penchant for). In other words, who are the ten most major leagues ready guys currently in the Phillies farm system,who have never played with the Phillies. You can include guys who have been with other major league teams brifly like Blanco and Fransden, but have never been Phillies. However, exclude Dom Brown, Schwimmer, De Fratus and any others who have ever been with the Phillies, however briefly.

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