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Friday, May 25, 2012

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Free and easy - I'm in.

Sweet!

Clout, you got Howard and KK.

Ya know what "Fantasy Baseball" is to me? The Phillies not stranding RISP w/ less than 2 Outs.

I like how Hector Luna costs more than David Ortiz. DraftStreet must really be taking into account that win% that NEPP has been posting.

'Luna' effect:

Phils' overall: 7-4
Appearances: 4-2
Game started: 1-1

Those power rankings are good fun. I needed that laugh.

They just left another man on 3rd with less than 2 outs.

Gio now leads the league in strikeouts, K/9, hits per 9, and wins.

Yeah but Freddy Garcia is a proven veteran pitcher and he will be a key piece of our team going forward.

nice idea with draft street, i'm intrigued by fantasy, but never have enough interest to commit to a full season - so this one night only team seems pretty cool.

hopefully everyone uses their bl handle so we can all tell ppl who finish underneath us dumb and complain about SSS to whoever beats us.

Gonzalez's stuff is fantastic and he is extremely hard to hit. Only thing holding him back, at all, is some wildness. Too many walks and too many pitches has him off the leaderboard in innings pitched. Hasn't gone past 7 this year. Needs to get more efficient to step up to Cy Young candidate, this year.

Not sure if mentioned last night, but did we just witness a closer get pulled from a save situation? I'm trying to think of the last time I've ever seen that.

Now obviously Rodriguez had to hit the backstop about 5 times for it to happen, but hey, it still happened. I wonder if Rodriguez ends up playing CF with Ankiel by the end of the season.

Rodriguez has been pulled from a couple closing appearances in the past week as he has zero command of his pitches.

I can't remember a dumber baseball team in my lifetime. We have seen more baserunning gaffes this season than the previous 5 combined. I get that if you start Mike Fontenot and Freddy Galvis you aren't going to outslug anyone but for the love of all things holy can this team at least do the fundamental things right? Please?

Mayberry is so petrified to make a mistake right now, pretty much sums up his entire confidence level.

He never takes the slightest risk on the basepaths, he is extremely reluctant to hack at a first pitch that looks good, and he is even more afraid of getting 2 strikes so he tries to hit anything close once hes behind in the count.

altho last nite, his base running errors didnt mean a thing since he was the lead runner and we were down two runs in the last innings. As long as he didn't impede the runner behind him which I don't believe he did, then he basically means nothing to the outcome of the game.

So yes, he looked silly out there but in essence he did nothing wrong by just sticking tight to the bag.

Lorecore, I was initially thinking the same thing, but didn't he prevent a runner from advancing from 2nd to 3rd?

Lorecore, I was initially thinking the same thing, but didn't he prevent a runner from advancing from 2nd to 3rd?

Posted by: BobbyD

This is the thing. It is entirely plausible that Fontenot could have come around to 3rd had Mayberry scored while the ball bounced around for 5 seconds. But I'm also talking about Fontenot's mistake of not moving up to 3rd on the sac fly when the throw went through to the plate. A rookie mistake by Harper trying to cut down a meaningless run at home. If Fontenot is on 3rd it's possible that Burnett chokes one and we see another wild pitch.

Power Rankings based on Team WAR values is one of the dumber applications I have seen.

The only way Mayberry could have been at fault is if you believe the below was possible:

#1. He advances home on Fontenot's single, causing a throw to the plate allowing Fontenot to advance to 2B

Or

#2. Fontenot could have reached 3B on the wild pitch

I don't think either could have happened.

Iorecore: If Mayberry could've easily scored on the wild pitch, then Fontenot could have easily reached 3rd on the wild pitch.

That said, I understand Mayberry being cautious as the lead runner down by 2 runs. His run is irrelevant, but his out would be enormous. He was almost certainly overly cautious there, but it's not a terrible mistake, the way Polanco's failure to tag was.

I get why Mayberry would stay put because the negative outcome would have him drawn and quartered but how Fontenot isn't able to advance to 3rd to put more pressure on the Nats is beyond me. You tag up, come off hard and watch the ball. It's inexcusable. This team is simply not good enough everywhere else to have lapses on the basepaths. I cannot believe how terribly flawed their fundamentals are. I'll watch them pop up to 3rd all night long and deal with it but I can't take stupid baserunning coupled with all the other deficiencies on this team. Baserunning is not a skill-based attribute. It's just being smart.

Jack: 1st to 3rd on a wild pitch is extremely rare, i am almost positive it wouldn't have been successful attempt.

Maybe if Mayberry goes home and the throw goes to the plate instead and is either wild/bobbled? I guess there are possible ways, but we're talking a lot of 'ifs'.

Joe D - agreed about Fontenot not tagging, especially when the throw went home.

but for the sake of this argument, Burnett never threw a wild pitch so it ended up not affecting anything.

Jack: Fontentot was on 1st, not 2nd. I sort of doubt he could have reached 3rd.

I think the Mayberry blunder was more or less irrelevant. I did find it puzzling, though, that he refused to run on a WP that ended up all the way near the 1st base dugout, then turned around & ran on a medium deep fly ball against a right fielder with one of the best arms in baseball. Imagine what BL would be like this morning if Harper had made a decent throw and nailed Mayberry at the plate to end the game.

Iorecore: Never mind. I thought it was 2nd and 3rd--I forgot Fontenot got to 2nd on the wild pitch itself.

Ignore my comment.

Beware the crap team you field if you roll with an ace.

bap: so true. He had three chances to score(single, WP, sac fly) and probably took the most risk on the sac fly.

In a most extreme case of optimism, you could sketch that inning out where Mayberry scores on the single, draws throw to advance Fontenot to 2B, Font to 3B on WP, Font scores on Sac fly...

and then we blow the game in extras anyway...and yes that qualifies as the optimistic take.

Power Rankings based on Team WAR values is one of the dumber applications I have seen.

Posted by: MG | Tuesday, May 22, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I disagree. Pretty much every other power ranking in the world is the same: put the teams in order by record with little-or-no deviation. At least this attempts to provide insight that you can't find in the standings.

I actually really liked Fangraphs' power rankings last year - early in the season most of the weight was put on preseason projections, with weight shifting to team WAR as the season progressed. It seemed to have some predictive value with teams like Cleveland and Pittsburgh last year who were playing over their heads early in the season.

DH Phils - I would still just use run differential. It simple, straight-forward, and I would bet has just as much predictive power at WAR or more at this point.

If Amaro were playing he would max out both 2 SP and RP spots with high salaries and build the team around that.

As for the Phils, they are now just 6-10 in the NL East. Just brings to mind the old Dana Carvey impression of GWH Bush with the line "Nope. Not gonna do it."

And I don't even think those power rankings look that bad. The ordinal ranking at #5 for the Phillies looks high, but 5 through 15 are all tightly packed within 2 WAR. If you look at the rankings in tiers rather than focusing on the order:

Tier 1: TEX
Tier 2: WAS, LAD, STL
Tier 3: PHI, BAL, SFG, ATL, TBR, BOS, NYY, DET, CLE, CWS, MIA
Tier 4: TOR, LAA, HOU, MIL, ARI, CIN, CHC, NYM, COL, KCR, SEA, SD
Tier 5: PIT, OAK
Tier 6: MIN

I don't know, that looks about right to me.

Joe D - agreed about Fontenot not tagging, especially when the throw went home.

but for the sake of this argument, Burnett never threw a wild pitch so it ended up not affecting anything.

Posted by: lorecore

He didn't throw a wild pitch but whose to say his a-hole doesn't wind a little tighter with the tying run only 90 feet away. Mindsets change as situations change.

There is another way the Mayberry thing could have hurt.

Say there was another wild pitch, one that rolled 10 feet up the third base line. Mayberry wouldn't have been able to score, but Fontenot would have been able to take third if it were unoccupied.

I agree with the poster who said it reflects Mayberry's fear of making a mistake. That was a plainly obvious run.

Did we find out if Samuel was telling him to hold? That would make this all even funnier. Sammy has no problem sending a guy home who is not even rounding 3rd while the fielder is picking it up cleanly to throw home. All these mistakes are telling me that this team is playing tight as hell. The calendar doesn't even read October yet. The previous 2 seasons they waited until then to play like they are now.

Doc and Hamels will get us W's. A series win will put us right back on track.

"Did we find out if Samuel was telling him to hold?"

I wondered the same. I also wondered what (if anything) Sammy was telling Polanco on that fly ball to CF, where he was halfway to home plate before it was caught &, hence, unable to tag up.

The Polanco thing is entirely on him. You need to know by now that you have to be on the bag on anything to the air. Most 10 year olds also know this.

We should have Cole Hamels day to give him a proper sendoff as I know they arent going to resign him. Amaro said resigning Hamels, Polanco, Blanton and Victorino were all equal priorities last night.

Ted, I hope that isn't true. I'd pack Victorino's stuff for him. And resigning Polanco? C'mon. This team needs a youth movement. I am happy he has rebounded from April but I don't want to see him anymore after this year.

***Amaro said resigning Hamels, Polanco, Blanton and Victorino were all equal priorities last night.***

If he actually thinks Polanco and Blanton resigning are just as important as Hamels and Vic, he shouldn't just be fired, he should be drawn and quartered in front of City Hall and the pieces sent to the four corners of Philadelphia County as a warning to future GMs.

Also, why is resigning Polanco even a thought when he has a team option they could just use...if they were dumb enough to actually want him back in 2013.

Must mean Rube is thinking 3-4 more years of Polly!!!

Maybe Ruben has a crystal ball in which he sees this team winning the world series so he can hand out more "good-will" albatross deals. That HAS to be why he said re-signing Polanco is important.

Who can we use more Jason Marquis or Cody Ransom?

Rube's mouth is on autodrive. He's just speaking basic "GM-speak." Kinda like a rookie pitcher talking about throwing hard. Or "It's an easy game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball."

There are no such things as equal priorities. Not in life; not in baseball.

"Rube's mouth is on autodrive. He's just speaking basic "GM-speak."

Right.

I'm disappointed he didn't put Cole on a pedestal, and bash Fat Joe, Always Injured Polanco, and Dummy Victorino.

This team, without much power, is going to have to force its opposition to execute defensively, which hopefully will cause the latter to commit errors. This implies performing such to put pressure on the opponent while on the basepaths. However, since to absence of Davy Lopes this has not been much of an aspect of this team's character. You all saw this last night in the bottom of the ninth.

Back thirty years ago, I worked with a wise, wizened saleman who told me that in negotiations you ought to treat it akin to a tennis match; meaning that you could not lose when the ball was on the other side of the net in play, so be sure to place it there and hope that your opponent might make an error. This is what playing in such a manner, to pressure the defense is all about, viz., making the opposition execute its own plans successfully, under pressurized circumstances....... in other words, put your opponent in situations where the pressure to perform facilitates them choking.

"That's the thing- they're not getting blown out of the water. It's a razor's edge every night, and it almost goes the wrong way for them, with a different culprit every night. Kind of the opposite of last year."

Yeah, this does descibe it. It is tempting to keep looking for "turning points". Despite some of the abominations we're seeing, I believe the team is slowly getting better, but it will certainly not be a straight line where all of a sudden they consistently start to win two out of three games in a series. Plenty of frustrating, tough to watch losses like last night yet to come as part of the process.

"Amaro said resigning Hamels, Polanco, Blanton and Victorino were all equal priorities last night."

A statement as patently disingenuous as that one is not to be taken seriously, as a reflection of RAJ's true feelings on personnel matters. However, the mere fact that he would make such a statement -- and expect people to treat it seriously -- is a reflection of general cluelessness.

I never thought I'd say this, but I am starting to get uneasy about even wanting to resign Victorino.
If he can't hit above 250 with his speed it might be time trade him or get a draft pick for him next year if he resigns elsewhere. He used to be my favorite Phil but his dumb play and lack of clutch hits are as big a factor as anyone else in this lousy baseball so far.

Clueless? No. It's Amaro. He's just smug.

If there's a choice between Hamels and Victorino coming back, it's no choice at all.

A 28-year old left-handed pitcher or a 31-year old centerfielder?

Again, not even a question. Hamels must be the priority. It will hurt, but letting Shane go is the right move. A 4 or 5-year deal for Shane will end up hurting the team down the road.

"...he shouldn't just be fired, he should be drawn and quartered in front of City Hall and the pieces sent to the four corners of Philadelphia County as a warning to future GMs."

And the earth where Rube walked and worked needs to be salted and not used again for baseball purposes for 1,000 years.

November 2014- Hamels has won his second Cy Young award for the Dodgers finishing just in front of former Phil Gio Gonzalez. Utley and Howard have been retired for a year. Thome is still on the 15 day DL (they forgot about him).
Polanco, Victorino and Rollins are in the last year of their non-productice but lucrative contracts playing in front of occasional crowds of 24,000 people for a last place Phillies team. Amaro quits to take a job with the Marlins and Monty turns to... Ed Wade

Dave Bush notches the second complete game shut out in Iron Pigs history this fine Tuesday morning!

"Did we find out if Samuel was telling him to hold?"

This is secondhand information, but a work friend who was at last night's game--who used to coach high school baseball and watches games with an eagle eye--did say that it was Samuel's fault for telling him to hold. In fact, his conversation this morning openened with a rant against Samuel.

Take it for what it is worth.

T-Mac, you left out the part about Sandberg being named manager of the year with Texas in 2014.
He left after the Phils decided to bring back Charlie in 2013 to spite the know it all press and fans.

I wouldn't be heartbroken at all if Victorino walks. I'm thankful for what he brought this team but now he is the epitome of everything that is wrong with it.

November 2014- Hamels has won his second Cy Young award for the Dodgers finishing just in front of former Phil Gio Gonzalez. Utley and Howard have been retired for a year. Thome is still on the 15 day DL (they forgot about him).
Polanco, Victorino and Rollins are in the last year of their non-productice but lucrative contracts playing in front of occasional crowds of 24,000 people for a last place Phillies team. Amaro quits to take a job with the Marlins and Monty turns to... Ed Wade

Posted by: T-Mac |

Tremendous.

Manuel: 'We need to get some guys hot'

Same old UC, guy doesn't have a friggin' clue what to do. Just sit back and wait for "hittin' season" to come.

Rollins missing the entire series on the male version of maternity leave that lasts 72 hours in the new CBA.

"male version of maternity leave"...otherwise known to nonidiots as paternity leave.

Rollins missing the entire series on the male version of maternity leave that lasts 72 hours in the new CBA.

Posted by: lorecore

Yeah his piss poor at bats with men on were solely missed last night.

Victorino is a great player to have on your team when things are going good. For what we got him as, he blossomed into a real key for us the past few seasons.

But then there's the other side. The side that's too laid back. The guy who thinks nothing about going on a UFC bender when there's a day game the next day plus his known role in Gran Torino-gate during a serious slump.

I think he has a really positive impact when things are going good, but I think he has just as much of a negative impact when things are going bad.

I'd leave him alone in the off season and I'd definitely take offers for him at the deadline.

Gran Torino-gate? Catch me up to speed here.

My issue with Victorino is that he represents all that is wrong with this team right now. He is a free-swinging more often than not dumb baseball player. I personally have seen enough. He is being asked to hit out of position in the lineup and being counted on to do more and that has made some of his shortcomings stand out more. It's like he had his contract year a year too early. Last year he was easily the team's most consistent hitter.

Yo, new thread

Passing cigars out takes a toll on the bat speed.

RAJ hang Doc out there and see what falls out of the tree. Make sure he's in the shade.If any gms see that beet red face no players will fall from the tree.
Seriously,does anyone else think Doc hasn't been the same since he overcooked in Chicago?

There was a new thread when this was originally around on Tuesday, but ignore the "Yo, new thread" for now on Friday.

Everytime I log in to DraftStreet to sign up for tonight's free roll I get this message:

Exclusive Freeroll
Sorry, this freeroll is exclusive to a DraftStreet partner site. You can enter a non-exclusive freeroll for May 25, 2012 by clicking here.

Anyone else have this problem?

Mark: same problem - i did a free roll once before that a NHL blog hosted, so i think it only allows you to do 1 per account.

I just signed up for a new account and it worked.

I think MG posted last(current?) thread how the phils offense had their best game of the season because the kept piling on after the fact - and I agree.

The single run innings after they had the lead in the late innings have been something that usually alluded this team after they are able to put together big innings.

Count me in as someone who would have never guessed Wigginton would have been hitting a 425ft bomb off a hard throwing RHP to dead CF.

Jack: where did you get your Leverage Index stat? I think you either are interpreting the stat wrong or just found some insanely bogus details.

Your stat says Jake Diekman(5IP) has been in move leverage situations then Papelbon(18.1 IP)? You must be reading 'average' Leverage or something, because its impossible.

And if you are calculating averages from a 5IP sample size, then you must know you are posting meaningless information.

Unlike the pissy pants posse, Charlie has some sac, and we know he drinks some Jack.

Gonna go back in tiiiiiiiiimmmme....

The last couple of weeks, I had been trying to convince myself to be less intense, not as consumed, dial it back a little regarding the Phils this summer. But when I realized how tense, what a nervous wreck I was during the last few innings last night, I now realize that that is just not possible.

Phlipper/Al: you know I'm with you 99% of the time against some of these simps, but there was no excuse for what Charlie did last night in the 8th inning. None.

It's the same script every time, and he's wrong every time. He's got a 12 million dollar arm in the bullpen that can get 4, 5 and 6 out saves. Not using it in situations like last night, when you've got a guy on the mound that has worked himself into trouble with a high pitch count, is suicide most of the time.

BTW - for the "RBI is a meaningless stat" crowd, you know, the ones who say that RBI depend show you the number of runners on base when someone comes to bat.

OBI% (% of other runners knocked in)

Hunter Pence this year:

R1B% R2B% R3B% OBI%
4.8 15.1 21.9 12.2


Ryan Howard last year:

R1B% R2B% R3B% OBI%
8.3 21.2 34 18 (avg 2008-11 18.68%)


MVP Joey Votto last year:

R1B% R2B% R3B% OBI%
7.7 22.3 41.9 17.9 (avg 2008-11 18.38%)


It is interesting that Pence seems to be getting almost as much hate this year as I get perennially. I'm sure that Pence will pick it up, but it sure is hard for some people to wrap their minds around the fact that any hitter will fail to drive in runs the majority of times they come to the plate with runners on base, and that I have produced RBI at historic levels.

I feel for Pence, but here's hoping that when I come back, my haters will realize just how foolish they are. (Yeah, like that's going to happen.)

pissy pants posse aka Philipper. Even he knows that inning was a managerial clusterf@ck and he doesn't have anything to say about it.

Posted by: MG | Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 11:32 PM

You won't guess who I am because I am an occasional poster.

Charlie likes to have stability in the bullpen especially in the 8th and 9th innings. He had it in the past with Madson-Lidge and Bastardo-Madson. There is nothing wrong with having your second best reliever out there in the 8th and have him try to work out of a jam. Some of you are really weird with some of your knee-jerk in-game posts. However, you are at least entertaining.

Let me try to reformat those #'s:


Hunter Pence this year:

R1B% R2B% R3B% OBI%
4.8

R2B%
15.1

R3B%
21.9

OBI%
12.2


Ryan Howard last year:

R1B%
18.3

R2B%
21.2

R3B%
34

OBI%
18 (avg 2008-11 18.68%)


MVP Joey Votto last year:

R1B%
17.7

R2B%
22.3

R3B%
41.9

OBI%
17.9 (avg 2008-11 18.38)

Just catching up on the last few threads and read where MG listed a bunch of guys he would take over J-Roll defensively in his prime (many of them questionable, but still ones for which you could make an argument) and listed Ripken and Tulo.

Hahahahaha.

I tried to sign up for the BL Fantasy League thing, but the state I signed up as being a resident of...Louisiana, won't let me deposit or accept money, so I guess I'm not participating. Oh, well, there's always real life to occupy my time.

"There is nothing wrong with having your second best reliever out there in the 8th and have him try to work out of a jam."

That depends. If you're hoping to manage your bullpen such that you win as many games as possible, there is most definitely something wrong with it.

Really, we had a problem with Bastardo pitching the 8th? I was 100% OK with that.

Iceman -

I would have replaced Bastardo (and certainly Charlie waited too long on Blanton) - but people look at this situation without really balancing the cost/benefit on both sides.

It's a numbers game, and long run replacing Bastardo would probably come out ahead, but the marginal advantage is overblown, people cherry-pick the advantages/disadvantages when they fulfill their need to criticize, and people neglect the proven long-term success of Charlie's approach.

He lets the players play and doesn't panic. I think it's likely that has a positive effect of building confidence. Further, if he's doing it earlier in the season, it gives him time to see what his players can do.
If you believe that the psychological aspect has any impact, there's a downside to pulling Bastardo there.

Remember when everyone was whining about how Charlie needs to replace Polly in the everyday lineup because Polly is "washedup"? Remember how the whining slowed down when Wiggy came up small defensively in a key situation? Only then did they begin to weight costs/benefits on both sides of the question at hand. It's like when Charlie brought Pap in to a tied game only to watch him give up 3 runs, or when he doesn't bring Pap in when they're up by 4 runs only to watch the lesser relievers give up runs and put a game at risk and require that Pap get brought in anyway.

That depends. If you're hoping to manage your bullpen such that you win as many games as possible, there is most definitely something wrong with it.

Posted by: DH Phils | Friday, May 25, 2012 at 10:25 AM

I argue that finding that 8th inning guy before the end of May is far more important than the possibility of him blowing the lead in a game in May. Bastardo is the only legitimate option at this point.

I think Cole Hamels needs to have a talk with Bulldog Blanton. It should go something like this...

Cole: Hey, Bulldog, WTF?!!

Blanton: Huh?

Cole: It's your walk year, buddy. You can't be putting up turd performances like you did last night.

Blanton: Huh?

Cole: You got to pitch like that day when you pitched that complete game shutout earlier this year.

Blanton: Huh?

Cole: Aw, man, there's no hope for you!

Blanton: Hey, Cole, do you know if we're getting doughnuts tonight in the clubjouse?


Whoever pissy pants posse is, he's spot on, and despite the juvenility of the term, pissy pants posse is absolutely the perfect descriptor for describing the in-thread whiners who need to show some sac and drink some Jack.

Yo, new thread (Friday version)

lore: I don't think anyone questions the decision to use Bastardo in the 8th inning. But after he allowed a double and a single, and the go-ahead run came to the plate in the form of Matt Holliday, it was pretty dubious to not call on our $12M reliever to make a 4-out save. And, after Bastardo walked Holliday, it was even more dubious to let him face Beltran.

Compare this year Cards' team to last year Cards' team at this time, with the tactical genius at the helm and Pujols mashing at the cleanup spot.

I'd say that if Charlie's managerial approach really has a downside, it's in a short playoff series where the psychological impact of building confidence and establishing stability and routine are much more limited in value, and the importance of small marginal strategic advantages becomes magnified.

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